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A Study by SESRIC and IDB
MANAGING DISASTERS AND CONFLICTS IN OIC COUNTRIES
I. Introduction
1. Introduction
II. Disasters and Conflicts: A Synopsis
2. Overview of Natural Disasters in OIC
Countries
3. Overview of Conflicts in OIC Countries
4. Disaster – Conflict Interface
III. Managing Disasters and Conflicts
5. Critical Aspects of Disaster Management
6. Critical Aspects of Conflict Management
7. Management of Disasters and Conflicts
when they coincide
IV. Policy Implications and
Recommendations
8. Policy Implications and Recommendations
Outline of the Report
Introduction
DISASTERS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT • Natural hazards, vulnerabilities and development
• Conflicts and development
AIMS AND OBJECTIVES • Assess the risks and vulnerabilities to various types of disasters, both
natural and man-made;
• Provide best practices in disaster risk reduction and management;
• Promote joint initiatives on conflict resolution and management within the OIC countries;
• Advocate for collaborative actions for strengthening the institutional capacities for countries that experience/d destructive natural disasters and man-made crises;
• Encourage the disaster-related actions to focus more on mitigation and preparedness;
• Offer policy recommendations to increase the resilience throughout the OIC region.
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION
Aims and Objectives
• Occurences
PART I: DISASTERS AND CONFLICT: A SYNOPSIS
Overview / Disasters - I
Figure 1: Total Number of Natural Disasters over Time (1970-2012)
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OIC Rest of the World WORLD
Occurences
• Number of disasters in OIC countries increased from 681 (23%) during 1990’s to 1431 (26%) during 2000-2012.
• Arab countries are mostly affected from floods (229), epidemic (91), drought (42), storm (41) and earthquake (23).
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Occurences in Arab Countries (1980-2014)
PART I: DISASTERS AND CONFLICT: A SYNOPSIS
Overview / Disasters - II
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19781982
19861990
19941998
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Figure 2: Major drivers of the increasing trend in natural disasters in the OIC (1970-2012)
Indonesia 14%
Bangladesh 10%
Iran 6%
Pakistan 6%
Afghanistan 5%
Turkey 5%
Others 54%
OIC 24%
Rest of the World 76%
Figure 3: Natural disasters distribution within world
(Top) and OIC (Bottom) during 1970-2012
Occurences
Share of Arab countries in total number of disasters in the world is only 4.4% during 1980-2014.
PART I: DISASTERS AND CONFLICT: A SYNOPSIS
Overview / Disasters - III
1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-12
WORLD 544 1,241 2,023 2,837
OIC Countries 94 220 193 243
OIC % of world 17% 18% 10% 9%
Total number of non-fatally affected people in OIC region by type of natural disasters during 1970-2012
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Drought Earthquake Epidemic Extremetemperature
Flood Insectinfestation
Massmovement dry
Massmovement wet
Storm Volcano Wildfire
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28 6 4
423
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Population non-fatally affected (millions)
Affected People
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Total Affected in Arab Countries (1980-2014)
Share of Arab countries in world total is only 1.1% during 1980-2014.
PART I: DISASTERS AND CONFLICT: A SYNOPSIS
Overview / Disasters - IV
1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-12
WORLD 53,847 185,481 699,539 1,431,042
OIC Countries 3,073 15,936 67,134 65,147
OIC % of world 6% 9% 10% 5%
Cost of damages by type of natural disasters type during 1970-2012
(US$ billion)
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Drought Earthquake Extremetemperature
Flood Insectinfestation
Massmovement
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Economic Cost of Natural Disasters, (current prices, million dollars)
Economic Impacts
0123456789
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Bill
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Total Damage in Arab Countries (1980-2014)
Share of Arab countries in world total is only 0.9% during 1980-2014.
PART I: DISASTERS AND CONFLICT: A SYNOPSIS
Overview / Disasters - V
Economic Cost of Natural Disasters, (current prices, million dollars)
Economic Impacts
• Share of national savings in GDP vs. estimated damage to total GDP in OIC countries by using 5-years moving averages
• Some OIC countries loss significant shares of savings due to disasters (Tajikistan 35%, Guyana 15%).
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Damage, % Saving, % Damage/GDP Saving/GDP
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Top 10 Arab Countries in terms of Loss by Natural Disasters as
% of National Savings during 1970-2011
• Exposure of Arab countries to hazards appears to be low compared to other countries, but higher vulnerability and inadequate coping capacity make these countries increasingly susceptible to disasters.
• Data limitation also makes it difficult to conduct good quality analyses.
In this context, Arab countries require to make further efforts towards building their resilience. Some recommendations:
• Develop and implement disaster risk assessment schemes, including preparation of hazard maps to define the general hazard zones and establishment of a disaster database;
POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommendations - I
Recommendations for Risk Sensitive Development
• Promote and mainstream the implementation of prudential environmental management strategies for mitigation of disaster risks and adverse effects of climate change
• Establish national and local databases to collate developmental and disaster risk information and to produce analysis of hazards, risks and vulnerabilities
• Establish an OIC Disaster Management Centre to provide training, research and information services to develop capacities of the member countries of OIC as well as to coordinate timely response to disasters through effective sharing of information, knowledge and good practices at regional and international level
POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommendations - II
Recommendations for Risk Sensitive Development
• Establish a database of existing emergency response capacities of the different countries that can be mobilized for deployment in times of disasters
• Explore the possibility of developing alternative financial mechanisms as part of short and long-term financing strategies for disaster risk management
• Cooperate in addressing the financing needs of the disaster-prone countries for risk sensitive development.
POLICY IMPLICATIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
Recommendations - III
Recommendations for Risk Sensitive Development
Thank you for your attention!
SESRIC THE STATISTICAL ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL RESEARCH AND TRAINING CENTRE FOR ISLAMIC COUNTRIES
