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PETROLEUM SERVICES INC. Dr. Rudolph Kassinger [email protected] Marine Fuels Where are we? Where are we going? How will we get there?

Marine Fuels Where are we? Where are we going? How will we get there?

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Marine Fuels Where are we? Where are we going? How will we get there?. Sulfur content vs. Viscosity Grade -- 2006. 2006 Fuel Quality by Sulfur Range 0.5% Sulfur Increments. 2006 Fuel Quality by Sulfur Range 0.5% Sulfur Increments. Where Are We Going? *. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

PETROLEUM SERVICES INC.Dr. Rudolph [email protected]

Marine Fuels Where are we? Where are we going? How will we get there?

Page 2: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 2Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Sulfur content vs. Viscosity Grade -- 2006

Visc, cSt @ 50oC World

"60" 1.86

"180" 2.51

"380" 2.66

"500" 2.78

Singapore Rotterdam Fujairah Houston

- - - -

2.85 2.39 3.38 3.36

3.16 2.60 3.46 3.45

3.79 2.83 3.15* 3.11*

*<1% samples

% Sulfur

Page 3: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 3Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

2006 Fuel Quality by Sulfur Range0.5% Sulfur Increments

Page 4: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 4Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

2006 Fuel Quality by Sulfur Range0.5% Sulfur Increments

Page 5: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 5Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Where Are We Going?*

• From: “The Impact of Marine Emission Legislation on the Bunker Industry”, by Robin Meech, presented at IPIECA Workshops on Marpol Annex VI Singapore, Washington, Brussels, February 2006

[email protected]

Page 6: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 6Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Residue Properties

Crude % S Dens % Dens cSt @ 99oC % S * % Dens cSt @ 99oC % S** **

Arab Hvy 2.85 898 53.7 981 96 4.35 (82) 23.1 1051 59e3 6.01 (59)

Arab Lt 1.79 856 44.6 951 24 3.10 (77) 14.7 1022 1.8e3 4.34 (46)

WTI 0.35 835 40.3 923 21 0.68 (78) 10.4 984 1.2e3 1.04 (39)

Brent 0.26 831 36.8 840 12 0.58 (82) 5.6 986 7.7e2 1.07 (28)

Ardjuna 0.10 837 34.5 918 16 0.18 (62) 6.2 1023 5.5e6 0.29 (29)

ATMOSPHERIC VACUUM

Page 7: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 7Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Blending to Low % Sulfur Specs

% S hi - % S Spec

wt. % MGO =% S hi - % S MGO

Page 8: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 8Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Blending to a Low Sulfur Limit

I FO, 380 cSt MDO, 0.5% S (0.1% ) Function of MDO Visc @ 40oC

% S wt. % MDO needed 10 cSt 25 cSt

3.5 66.7 19 39

2.0 33.3 67 107

Blended Fuel Visc

(58.8) (25) (49)

(26.3) (92) (137)

EXAMPLES0.68 - 0.5

% MGO = = 26.5 wt. %0.68 - 0

1.04 - 0.5% MGO = = 51.9 wt. %

1.04 - 0

Examples, Residue to 0.5% S

Examples, IFO to 1.5% S

Page 9: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 9Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

* From: Refining to Meet Low S Bunker Fuel, A. Madden, Exxon Mobil, Marpol Annex VI consultation Meeting, February 23, 2006

Page 10: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 10Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Tanker Case Study* from Well to Hull

Variable CD R0 LSD

Total energy 19,901 18,013 22,624

Fossil fuel 19,850 17,981 22,562

Petroleum 18,267 17,145 20,539

CO2 (tons) 1,537 1,512 1,781

NOx 41,786 41,396 46,439

PM10 327 1,272 370

SOx 627 20,447 440

Total (Mbtu/ trip or kg/ trip) a

SOURCE: Energy Use and Emissions from Marine Vessels: A Total Fuel Life Cycle Approach, J. J. Winebrake, J.J. Corbett and P.E. Meyer, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, Vol. 57, January 2007.

Page 11: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 11Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Near Term

Practical Considerations

Page 12: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Changeover Calculations

Fuel Change Over

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58

Time [hr]

Su

lph

ur

[%m

/m]

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

Se

ttli

ng

Ta

nk

Vo

lum

e [

m3

]

Settling tankSulphur [%]

Service TankSulphur [%]

Settling tankVolume [m3]

4.5 MT/hr consumption. Full service and settling

tanks at start of change-over 

HFO % Sulfur LSFO %SulfurChange-over time to

reach 1.5% S

4 1.5   99  

3 1.5   92  

2 1.5   76  

4 1   45  

3 1   38  

2 1   27  

Page 13: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Changeover Calculations

4.5 MT/hr consumption. 25% fill of service and empty settling tank at start of change-over

HFO % Sulfur LSFO % SulfurChange-over time to reach 1.5% S (hours)

4 1.5   22  

3 1.5   20  

2 1.5   16  

4 1   8  

3 1   7  

2 1   5  

Page 14: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 14Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Possible Quality Problems with Low Sulfur Residual Fuel

Fuel Stability / Compatibility

Ignition / Combustion Quality

Higher Abrasives Content

Unfamiliar Low Sulfur Cutter Stocks

Greater Variability in Physical Properties

Need for Lower TBN Cylinder

Page 15: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 15Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Back-up Slides

Section I

Page 16: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 16Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Marine Exhaust Emissions

Air 8.5 Kg

Engine Fuel

175 g/Kw hr

Fuel Derived Emissions, g/Kw hrCO2 555

H2O 163

SOX 9.5

NOX 2.2

Particulates N/ANitrogen 6715Oxygen 1230

MEMO: Fuel Composition Ratio’s Ratio’s% C 86.5 H/C 1.44 SO2/SO3 95/5% H 10.4 C/S 89 NO/NO2 10/90% S 2.7 C/N 202 Air/Fuel 49/1% N 0.4

(~ 7 MJ/Kw hr)

8675 g/Kw hr input 8675 g/Kw hr output

Page 17: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 17Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

How Does Marine Transport Fit into Global Emissions?

Estimated @ 200 Million MeT/yr ~ 3.5 M B/D*

5.3% (4.2 vol. %) of Global Oil Consumption

1.9% of Global Energy

Global CO2 from marine Fuels 645 MT/yr

Global CO2 from Distillate and Fuel Consumption 9845** MT/yr (3086 MT)

Marine Residual Fuel Consumption

=_

*based on DNVPS average marine residual fuel density** BP World Energy Outlook

Page 18: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 18Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Global SOx (PM and Fuel N) A Different Story

Global S from Marine Fuels 5.2 MT/yr

Global S from Light and Medium distillate 5.2 MT/yr

Global Fuel N from Marine = 0.8 MT/yr

Global Fuel N from Light / Medium Distillates ≤0.05 MT/yr

Global Particulates not quantified

Assumes: Light Distillate 1500 ppm S Medium Distillate 2500 ppm S

Page 19: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 19Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Table 6 - Container Ship Case Study

Variable CD R0 LSD

Total energy 182,905 167,359 209,702

Fossil fuel 182,442 167,063 209,125

Petroleum 167,890 159,297 190,375

CO2 (tons) 14,135 14,055 16,511

NOx 384,058 384,619 430,446

PM10 2,982 11,799 3,407

SOx 5,683 189,909 3,981

Total (Mbtu/ trip or kg/ trip) a

SOURCE: Energy Use and Emissions from Marine Vessels: A Total Fuel Life Cycle Approach, J. J. Winebrake, J.J. Corbett and P.E. Meyer, Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association, Vol. 57, January 2007.

Page 20: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 20Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Typical Fuel Products Flow Plan

Page 21: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 21Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Source: “BP World Energy Outlook”

216

181

98

148

2 YearAverage

Page 22: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 22Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

Air Emissions Regulations Scorecard

IMO Annex VI- 4.5% S Global Cap on ISO RM grade fuels- 1.5% S (6g SOx Kw hr) cap in SECA area- Engine NOx limits (17g/Kw hr for ≤ 130 rpm

EU 1999/32 and 2005/33- 1.5% S SECA Cap

CARB- 0.5% S cap on MDO/ISO DMA requirement in 24 nm zone for

auxiliary/diesel electric engines

Various Local Area S caps

In Place

Page 23: Marine Fuels Where are we?    Where are we going?    How will we get there?

Slide 23Intertanko March 26th, 2007 Dr. Rudolph Kassinger

IMO- BLG Working Group report- Submission of revised Annex VI to MEPC

EU- stated plan for further reduction on % S (0.5%/2g

SOx/Kw hr)

EPA - stated plan to apply for ECA designation- Cooperating with Canada and Mexico

CARB/CA “no net increase in emissions” policy

Other jurisdictions eyeing SECA designation

Intertanko proposal to require distillate fuel

Broad action likely on PM

Air Emissions Regulations Scorecard

In the offing