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MAREMarine Research on Eutrophication –
A Scientific Base for Cost-Effective Measures for the Baltic Sea
ANNUAL REPORT 2001
MAREMarine Research on Eutrophication
– A Scientific Base for Cost-Effective Measures for the Baltic Sea
Further informationE-mail: [email protected]
Web site: www.mare.su.se
Text and editing: Ardea Miljö
English translation: Martin Naylor
Graphic design: Hans Melcherson, Tryckfaktorn
Illustrations: ’’Himmel och hav’’ by Sven Holm (front cover), Tove Jansson (p. 1), Anders Sjöberg, Tiofoto (p. 4),Fredrik Wulff (pp. 9 and 11). Screenshots from the NEST program.
Printing: Risbergs Uddevalla, 2002
MISTRA is a foundation and as such must comply withthe Swedish Foundations Act. The relevant paragraph from the statutes
states that the aim of MISTRA is ‘to support research of strategic importance for agood living environment. The foundation shall promote the developmentof robust research environments of the highest international class that
will have a positive impact on Sweden’s future competitiveness.The research shall play a significant role in solving major
environmental problems and contribute to the development of asustainable society. The potential for achieving industrial
applications shall be realised as far as possible’.
MISTRA distributes about SEK 250 million a year to environmental research.At the beginning of 2001, the foundation’s capital amounted to SEK 4.7 billion.
MISTRA applies the same principles of transparency as thegovernment research councils.
MISTRA funds and organises research aimed at solving strategicenvironmental problems.
A MISTRA programme is considered a success when scientificallyadvanced research has been put to practical use in companies,
authorities or other organisations.
MISTRA funds about 20 major programmes, each of whichshould have a time span of between six and eight years.
Major investment in interdisciplinary research programmesstimulates innovation, new options and new forms of cooperation,
benefiting both Swedish environmental research asa whole and Sweden as a nation.
The Government appoints MISTRA’s board and its chairman.The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, the Royal Swedish Academy
of Engineering Sciences and the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture andForestry constantly audit MISTRA’s activities.
The audit reports are published.
MISTRASwedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Gamla Brogatan 36-38SE- 111 20 Stockholm, Sweden
Tel: +46- 8 791 10 20 • Fax: +46- 8 791 10 29E-mail: [email protected]
Web site: www.mistra.org
ParticipantsWP 1: Ecological properties in relation to eutrophication
Environmental and Marine Biology, Dept. of Biology, Prof. Erik Bonsdorff ([email protected]), coordinatorÅbo Akademi University, Finland Cecilia Rönnberg, technical assistant ([email protected])
Kristineberg Marine Research Station, Prof. Rutger Rosenberg ([email protected]), coordinatorGöteborg University Karin Karlsson, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
WP 2: Physical and biogeochemical modellingDept. of Oceanography, Göteborg University Prof. Anders Stigebrandt ([email protected]), coordinator
Björn Sjöberg, MSc. ([email protected]), deputy coordinatorAssoc. Prof. Bo Gustafsson ([email protected])Mattias Green, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Karin Gustavsson, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Jörgen Öberg, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Signild Nerheim, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Pia Ahnlund, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
Dept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Prof. Fredrik Wulff ([email protected]), coordinatorOleg Savchuk, visiting researcher ([email protected])Dr Christoph Humburg, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected])
WP 3: Nitrogen fixation in the Baltic SeaDept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Prof. Ragnar Elmgren ([email protected]), coordinator
Assoc. Prof. Ulf Larsson ([email protected])Dr Carl Rolff, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected])Beatrice Crona, technical assistant ([email protected])
WP 4: Eutrophication and Baltic Sea sedimentsWater and Environmental Studies, Linköping University Dr Åsa Danielsson, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected]), coordinator
Prof. Lars Rahm ([email protected])
Analytical and Marine Chemistry, Göteborg University Prof. Per Hall ([email protected])Dr Anders Tengberg, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected])
Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm University Assoc. Prof. Rolf Carman ([email protected])
WP 5: Eutrophication, fish and fisheries in the Baltic SeaDept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Assoc. Prof. Sture Hansson ([email protected]), coordinator
Olle Hjerne, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Jason Van Tassell, visiting student ([email protected])Chris Harvey, visiting researcher
WP 6: Costs of eutrophication abatement measuresDept. of Economics, Prof. Ing-Marie Gren ([email protected]), coordinatorSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences Monica Campos, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
Katarina Elofsson, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Robert Hart, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Ficre Zehaie, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Henrik Scharin, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Sandra Lerda, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
WP 7: Development of a decision support systemDept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Prof. Fredrik Wulff ([email protected]), coordinator
Alexander Sokolov, system developer/programmer ([email protected])Dr Miguel Rodriguez-Medina, research engineer ([email protected])
– 1 –
The test version is presented
‘There are at least a thousand small pieces here, and no one can tell what it’ssupposed to be until you put it together. What fun it will be, don’t you think?’
From Moominpappa at Sea by Tove Jansson (1965)
Most of this year’s annual report is devoted to a presen-tation of the test version of our decision support system.After two years of synthesis and development, we cannow describe the structure of the system and explain how it works. Some pieces of the jigsaw have still to beadded, but anyone wishing to do so is now welcome todownload and try out the system for themselves (see p. 2for further details). We have chosen to make the systemreadily available, but with the important proviso thatthose who use it accept that this is a test version and thatthe results are not yet to be used in real decision-makingsituations. Since it is often easierfor others to spot our shortcom-ings, we are grateful for any com-ments and suggestions that willhelp to improve the system andmake it more user-friendly. Mean-while, we will be continuing ourefforts to refine and check thesystem and update our data.
One of the highlights of 2001was MARE’s researcher trainingcourse. A brief account of the par-ticipants’ own impressions will befound on p. 11 of this report; forfurther details, readers are referred to our website. Forour own part, we can merely underline what the stu-dents themselves say: we, too, found the nine days of thecourse very intense and extremely interesting. It was in-spiring to see how the students’ sometimes palpable frus-tration at not being able to understand each other’s sub-jects gave way to constructive collaboration, providing abasis for the group projects and joint reports that con-cluded the course.
Many of the key results of the various subpro-grammes, or work packages, are not explicitly presentedin this year’s report on MARE. A great many of themare of course already built into the decision support sys-tem, but we would like to mention that our biologistshave now completed a wide-ranging review of literaturefrom different countries concerning the consequences ofeutrophication in the Baltic Sea. Their work shows thatthe effects of elevated nutrient levels differ from one partof the sea to another, as a diagram posted on our websiteillustrates. Many of these more qualitative findings can-not be directly incorporated in the decision support sys-tem, but in 2002 we will be trying to link information ofthis kind to the system, in order to supplement the lat-ter’s quantitative calculations with a more qualitative de-
scription of biological changes. Similarly, we will attemptto link the decision support system to the modelling thathas been done on how fisheries and food supplies affectcod, herring and sprat. These models for the dominantfish species of the Baltic describe the consequences ofdifferent fisheries management strategies, providing ahighly topical input to the current debate on fishingquotas in this sea area.
Two of the work packages have sought to verify vari-ous assumptions that are made in the decision supportsystem. One has been concerned with estimating the
quantities of nitrogen added tothe Baltic Sea as a result of nitro-gen fixation by cyanobacteria(blue-green algae), while the otherhas studied nutrient cycling inbenthic sediments. During 2001,as part of an EU-funded researchproject with participants from sev-eral Baltic Sea countries, measure-ments have been made of nitro-gen fixation in the open sea. Thishas furnished us with a greatlyimproved knowledge base fromwhich to draw data for incorpora-
tion in the system in 2002. Considerable effort has alsobeen put into developing a map of sediment characteris-tics, covering the entire Baltic Sea, which provides neces-sary background information for large-scale estimates ofnutrient cycling in sediments. A few initial estimates ofnutrient cycling have been made, and this work will con-tinue in the coming year.
A major challenge in our work on a decision supportsystem has been to integrate our physical/biogeochem-ical and our economic models. The next step will be toreplace the existing static models with dynamic ones.The latter take into account the time lag between aspecific measure and the emergence of its effects in themarine environment, and also the consequences of thisdelay for our economic calculations.
SIF JOHANSSON FREDRIK WULFF
Programme Director Scientific Coordinator
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Decision support system taking shape– prototype ready for testing
The aim of the MARE programme is to develop a computer-based decision support system for
the people whose job it is to decide what action should be taken – and hence how much it will cost
– to reduce inputs of nutrients to the Baltic Sea. By feeding various data into this computer program,
which performs calculations on the basis of a wide range of information held in large databases,
users will be able to establish what measures and combinations of measures are most cost-effective for
a particular area of the Baltic Sea and who (i.e. which countries or sectors of society) should do
what in order to achieve optimum results. The model’s calculations will give users a clear picture of
the potential impacts of different types of action and of how the costs could be shared in
order to secure the best possible outcome at the lowest possible cost.
The model shows how measures, effects and costs are interrelated, but it does not provide the decision
maker with ready-made solutions. Users will still have to balance all the relevant considerations before reaching
a decision. It will be up to them to decide what is socially and politically feasible, at the national level and
in collaboration with other countries in the Baltic Sea drainage basin, and whether costs and responsibilities
can in practice be shared in what the model may indicate to be – overall – the most cost-effective way.
A practicable, data-rich and reliable decision supportsystem provides hard facts in support of political andadministrative decision making. In an ideal system, wecan define the state of the environment we wish toachieve in coastal waters and open sea areas, and thenfind out what it will cost to bring this state about andhow, from an objective point of view, the burden can beshared most cost-effectively between different regions,countries and sectors of society. By pointing to differentways of attaining the goals agreed by the countries of theregion (for example in the HELCOM context), and ofimplementing the EU’s Water Framework Directive (na-tionally and with regard to transboundary water bodies),the decision support system developed within MAREcould – in conjunction with several other tools – providevaluable assistance to the decision makers concerned.
NEST available for testing and feedbackAfter two years of research within the different workpackages of MARE, the task of synthesis – linking to-gether the results – has now begun in earnest. Apartfrom the data from the work packages that have beenused directly to develop the various components of themodel, important information on nitrogen fixation andthe role of sediments in nutrient cycling, among otherthings, has been used to verify the submodels.
A prototype of the planned decision support systemhas been constructed and can now be used as the firstreal working version, to test how the links and compon-ents of the model work. Anyone wishing to do so candownload the model, which is referred to as NEST, and
try it out on their own computer. Since the model is con-stantly being developed, users will automatically gain ac-cess to the latest version when they open the program.
http://data.ecology.su.se/models/bedonweb/nest/
Potential users who put NEST through its paces in itspresent shape need to be aware that this a preliminarytest version and that there is still quite a lot of work tobe done before the model can be regarded as fully devel-oped. However, the researchers involved in MARE havedecided to make this first version of NEST readily avail-able to anyone who is interested, in the hope that manyof those who test it will take the opportunity to makecomments and suggestions and help to make the systemeven better in terms of both content and user-friendli-ness. Active collaboration with different groups in coun-tries around the Baltic is essential if the best availableregional data and model formulations are to be incorpor-ated in several of the model’s components.
Now that the prototype is ready, therefore, theMARE team will be continuing their constructive dia-logue with regional, national and international users inthe environmental sphere. In addition, they are hopingfor useful feedback, in the form of comments and sug-gestions for improvements to the system, from fellowresearchers at institutes and universities in the countriesaround the Baltic. It is also essential to find out whetherdecision makers and experts at ministries and othernational and regional agencies in the littoral states – theindividuals actively involved in efforts to reduce nutrient
– 3 –
inputs to the different basins of the Baltic from therelevant sectors – consider this a workable system, or whether it will need to be substantially modified tobe of practical use to them.
Loads, budgets and costsTo be of benefit to the user, a decision support systemhas to be pitched at just the right level. In a model-basedsystem, it is important to strike a balance between mod-els with too much detail, which by their very nature canbe extremely unwieldy, and models that are too coarse-meshed, which are uninteresting because the informationthey provide is in any case of no help to the decisionmaker. Thus an assessment also has to be made of whatit is important and less important to include.
The core concern of NEST is to describe, on thebasis of scientific data, the relationship between a spe-cific, desired state of the environment and the most cost-effective means of achieving it. The model thereforeneeds to incorporate four key functions:
• Descriptions of the relationship between nutrient con-centrations and the environmental status of coastalwaters and open sea areas. These should be based onmeasured values, other models or empirical knowl-edge.
• Coupled physical/biogeochemical models to establishthe relationship between inputs and concentrations ofnutrients, which is governed by transformation andtransport processes in different areas.
• Estimates of the cost of achieving the desired reduc-tions of nutrient inputs.
• Information about the relationship between costs andgiven states of the environment (the result of linkingtogether all the subsets of data).
The current prototype of NEST consists of three mainmodules:
Loads. This component contains data on nutrient inputsto the Baltic Sea. The information available to the modelat present comprises coastal point sources, river inputsand airborne inputs (atmospheric deposition), togetherwith chemical, hydrographical and topographical dataon the state of the Baltic. More recent data and descrip-tions of coastal zones are to be added to this part of themodel.
Nutrient budgets. This module consists of physical/bio-geochemical models of nutrient flows into sea areas,transformation processes and nutrient flows out of theareas concerned. The transformations which nutrients
undergo can result in their being added to or retained inthe system (e.g. nitrogen fixation by algae, immobiliza-tion in sediments) or being removed from it (e.g. by de-nitrification). At present, the model includes nutrientbudgets for the seven main basins of the Baltic Sea – theBothnian Bay, the Bothnian Sea, the Baltic Sea proper,the Gulf of Finland, the Gulf of Riga, the Belt Sea andthe Sound, and the Kattegat – with a total of 23 drainageareas (see table above).
Cost calculation. This part of the model comprises 16costed nutrient abatement measures in four importantsectors of society, within the 23 drainage areas. Thesemeasures form the basis for the model’s calculations ofcost-effective reductions of nitrogen and/or phosphorusinputs to different areas of the Baltic. The costs involvedare calculated on the basis of conventional economicprinciples relating to long-term investments and depreci-ation periods, combined with estimates of nutrient reten-tion in drainage areas, the coastal zone and the differentbasins of the Baltic Sea. The measures included are asfollows:
Country Drainage areas
Denmark KattegatBelt Sea
Sweden Bothnian BayBothnian SeaSouthern Baltic Sea properNorthern Baltic Sea properThe Sound (Öresund)Kattegat
Germany German Baltic Sea coast
Finland Bothnian BayBothnian SeaGulf of Finland
Russia Gulf of FinlandBaltic Sea proper
Latvia Gulf of RigaBaltic Sea proper
Lithuania Curonian Lagoon + coastal discharges
Poland Vistula drainage areaOder drainage areaCoastal discharges
Estonia Gulf of RigaGulf of FinlandBaltic Sea proper
– 4 –
Changes in agricultural land use:• Cultivation of forage crops.• Planting of energy forests.• Taking land out of active production and converting it
to permanent grassland.• Keeping land in production and growing catch crops
to reduce nutrient losses.• Creating buffer zones round fields and by streams and
rivers.
• Preserving or creating wetlands in agricultural areas.
Changes in fertilizer use and livestock holdings:• Reduced use of chemical fertilizers.• Reduced production of pigs, cattle and poultry, and
improved handling of manure from these animals.• Spreading animal manure in spring, when there are crops
to make use of it, rather than in autumn or winter.
– 5 –
Sewage treatment:• Enhanced nutrient removal, based on new municipal
and industrial sewage treatment plants, improvementsto existing plants, and treatment facilities for individ-ual households (which will primarily reduce phos-phorus inputs).
Industrial processes and combustion:• Enhanced nitrogen removal from of flue gases from
stationary industrial installations and energy plants.
Transport:• Fitting catalytic converters to motor vehicles (cars,
buses, lorries) and selective catalytic reduction equip-ment to ships.
This is how the model works now...The preliminary version of NEST gives the person test-ing it a good idea of how the fully developed decisionsupport system is intended to operate, as a means of test-ing different strategies and scenarios relating to futurenutrient loads to the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins andhence future eutrophication levels and environmentaleffects.
Once the user has downloaded and opened the pro-gram, a start page appears, offering a number of options.To test how the system works for one’s own region (i.e.basin of the Baltic Sea), another region or the Baltic as awhole, the first step is to select one of the modulesshown on the tabs above the map: LOADS, NUTRIENT
BUDGETS or COST CALCULATION.
LOADS 1
This module is a powerful graphical interface with allthe databases needed for NEST. It provides access to abroad range of background data, for example on nitro-gen and phosphorus and on other basic parameterswhich in turn control important physical and chemicalprocesses in the Baltic Sea. These data are highly de-tailed, making them of interest perhaps mainly to ex-perts/scientists, but precisely because of the need to gainacceptance for the model among fellow researchers, it isextremely important that such data are presented openly,permitting a free and open discussion about them. Thedatabases are upgraded as new compilations of data arepresented, e.g. on pollution loads (HELCOM PollutionLoad Compilation, PLC) or on conditions in the seaitself.
1
– 6 –
NUTRIENT BUDGETS 2
This component can be used to calculate how concen-trations of nutrients in the various basins of the Balticwill change if loads increase or decrease. To be able toperform cost calculations, it is also necessary to havebasic information about how nutrients are transportedbetween basins and how they enter or are removed fromdifferent areas. Whether it is ‘worth’ lowering nitrogenlevels in the Bothnian Bay in order to reduce the loadingto the Gulf of Finland, for example, naturally depends –among other things – on how much of the nitrogen inthe Bothnian Bay eventually finds its way into the Gulfof Finland.
Here, the user can obtain data on nutrient loads, i.e.inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus, to the basins of theBaltic. It is possible to see the inputs to each basin indi-vidually, and the percentages attributable to each coun-try in the region concerned. The module will displayeither data from HELCOM’s PLC3 or figures for a par-ticular period. The data used are intended to be upgrad-ed, for example when HELCOM’s new compilation(PLC4) is completed.
The Expert mode option under the Tools button on themenu bar allows the user to retrieve and change other
PLC data, for example on atmospheric inputs to thechosen basin or the proportion of nutrients retainedthere (sinks). At the same time, the map of the Balticshows nitrogen concentrations (red), phosphorus con-centrations (green) and water transparency values(blue), in the form of a bar chart for each basin. Thesediagrams change when the data on inputs are alteredin the tables to the right of the map.
Using this module, it is also possible to see how nu-trient loadings and water transparency are related. How-ever, in this respect the prototype is still underdeveloped:it is not yet possible to choose a desired level of transpar-ency and find out what input reductions will be mosteffective in achieving this state. For the time being, theuser has to proceed by trial and error, entering differentload reductions and seeing what improvements in trans-parency they produce.
COST CALCULATION 3–4
The cost calculation module allows the user to choose adesired percentage reduction of nutrient inputs to any ofthe basins of the Baltic, either for nitrogen and phos-phorus separately or for the two combined. Following amodification of the system, it is now also possible to select
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– 7 –
desired improvements in terms of the environmentalobjective relating to water transparency.
There is, in addition, the option of reducing eitherthe total nutrient load or only the loading from the sur-rounding drainage area. The model then calculates theminimum total cost of achieving this desired reductionand the cost to each Baltic Sea country (in E million),and presents the results in a table (see p. 10)
Further information can be obtained by clicking dir-ectly on the map. If the user clicks on the chosen basin, adiagram resembling a wind rose appears, showing whatproportions of the desired total reduction (e.g. 50 percent) have to be achieved by the different countriesaround this basin. Information also appears on howlarge the actual input abatement must be in each ‘basincountry’ (in thousands of tonnes of nitrogen or phos-phorus per year).
This can then be repeated for the other basins, show-ing what input reductions are required in different re-gions to bring about the total reduction in the first basin.This gives the broader picture: it is usually not enoughfor the countries around the basin concerned to takeaction – basically all the countries on the shores of the
Baltic have to play their part if the reduction is to beachieved in the most cost-effective manner.
The next step is to go back to the chosen basin andmove from sea to land by clicking on each of the sur-rounding countries in turn. For each country a pie chartappears, showing its share of the cost burden (based onthe data in the table on the total cost and the costs to in-dividual countries, in E million). The chart also shows inwhich sectors action must be taken if it is to be as cost-effective as possible. Here, too, figures in E million aregiven.
When abatement strategies to attain defined environ-mental objectives are discussed, various political brakesare often applied. For political, economic or social rea-sons (e.g. employment), decision makers may judge it tobe difficult or impossible to demand far-reaching actionin a particular sector of society. The model therefore of-fers the possibility of studying what happens if one ormore measures are ruled out or if any of the chosen costparameters, e.g. the price of chemical fertilizers, ischanged. In this way the user can find out whether thedesired input reduction can still be achieved – and atwhat cost – even if a decision is made to exclude one or
3
– 8 –
more of the measures which, from an objective point ofview, are perhaps the cheapest.
... and this is what the final version will look likeThe results obtained by testing different strategies andchoices on the current version of the model are not suffi-cient to form a basis for actual decisions on abatementstrategies, but do nevertheless give a good idea of thesystem’s inherent capabilities. In the course of 2002, themodel will be further developed to incorporate anumber of important additional components.
• Data will be added to permit a better description ofthe quantitative and qualitative relationships betweennutrient concentrations and biological parameters (ef-fects in the sea), such as effects on water transparency,abundance and composition of phytoplankton, distri-bution of attached algae and drifting algal mats, anddistribution and status of benthic fauna. Transparency(Secchi depth) is an important variable, since less tur-bid water is a sign of reduced primary production, i.e.reduced growth of microscopic algae. More extensiveareas of brown macroalgae (e.g. bladderwrack) and
eel-grass are other desired environmental states. Whenthe water is clearer, allowing light to penetrate further,these large benthic plants are able to expand to greaterdepths. Larger, more stable and more varied bladder-wrack belts and eel-grass meadows are thus able to de-velop. This is a very good sign, since such areas sup-port an abundance of life, serving as nurseries, lardersand shelters for young marine animals. When data ofthis type are included in the finished model, it shouldbe capable of describing the important links betweennutrient levels and states of the marine environment
• The Baltic Sea is a slow-changing system, with a gen-erally low rate of water exchange. In certain areas,water is turned over much more rapidly than in thesystem as a whole, but in others the exchange is veryslow. This in turn means that, overall, it takes a longtime for abatement measures to produce results in theform of lower nutrient concentrations in the differentparts of the Baltic Sea area. In most cases it will be along time before the goals set are achieved. This factmay also make it politically difficult to implement cer-tain measures, since there will be such a long delay be-
4
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fore any benefits are seen. The time lag between actionand effects is therefore important, not least when itcomes to estimating costs and attempting to sharethem in the most cost-effective way between the sec-tors and countries concerned. For this reason, ocean-ographers involved in one of the MARE work pack-ages are developing a time-dependent model, currentlywith the working name FastBalt. This model will formpart of the decision support system and will provideclearer and more rapid information on the time lag be-tween action and outcome. Users will be able to see onwhat timescales different measures can be expected toresult in lower nutrient concentrations in the water col-umn and hence to alleviate eutrophication effects inthe different basins of the Baltic.
• The coasts of the Baltic Sea vary considerably, fromdeeply indented shores fringed with islands to com-pletely open coastlines. In the former case, a largeproportion of nutrients are metabolized near the coast,allowing only a small proportion to reach the opensea. If nutrients are discharged along an open coast, on the other hand, substantial quantities will be trans-ported in either direction between inshore and off-shore waters. The model is to be developed further tocalculate more accurately the proportions of nutrientsthat are retained and cycled in inshore waters.
• In the Baltic, eutrophication is regulated by inputs ofboth nitrogen and phosphorus, and it is therefore im-portant to find optimum combinations of measures toreduce loadings of both these nutrients. The currentprototype does not link data on nitrogen and phos-phorus loads, so it is not possible to search for or testdifferent combinations of measures with a view to re-ducing total nutrient inputs in the most cost-effectivemanner. The model is to be further refined in thisrespect.
Step by step, then, the model will be supplemented andmodified to make it as useful as possible to the intendedtarget groups. The development process will be basedlargely on an exchange of views and experience with thepeople who test the model against their particular re-quirements. Additional components, better regional dataand submodels, and well-defined environmental objec-tives (desired states of the environment) all need to beincorporated.
The ongoing dialogue with future users will also pro-vide a basis for modifications to make the model clearand simple to use. If this model is to prove a useful, prac-tical tool, it is of course essential that users should feel ‘at
home’ with it, be willing to apply it in their day-to-daywork, and feel that they get answers to their questions,quickly and without ambiguity. Time is money, and ifusers do not get the answers they need in a format theycan understand, then the model will not be serving itspurpose. This is why a close dialogue with different deci-sion makers and a collaborative effort to achieve as gooda model as possible are crucial parts of the developmentprocess.
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A nutrient budget for a basin or smaller area of the Baltic Sea
shows the quantities of nutrients entering the system from different
sources (positive items) and leaving the system in various ways
(negative items). Positive items include river-borne and other in-
puts from land, atmospheric deposition, and influxes of nutrient-
rich water from adjacent sea areas. Negative items in the budget
consist of outflows of nutrient-rich water to adjoining sea areas
and ‘sinks’ within the system, i.e. processes which result in nu-
trients either being retained in sediments and put beyond the reach
of living organisms, or leaving the system, for example when nitro-
gen gas (produced by denitrification) is lost to the atmosphere.
Example 1: The Belt Sea and the SoundOn the basis of a nutrient budget, the model can for example be
used to test what a halving of the nitrogen loading to a given sea
area would entail: what action would have to be taken, and how
much would it cost? The answer assumes the form of calculations
of where – in which countries and sectors – inputs need to be
reduced and what the necessary abatement measures will cost.
This is what the ‘bill’ might look like when the total cost of
halving nutrient inputs to the Belt Sea and the Sound (estimated
by the model at almost E 3 billion) is shared among the Baltic Sea
states in the most cost-effective manner:
Country E million per year Share of total (%)
over 15 years
Poland 703 ≈ 30
Denmark 550 ≈ 25
Sweden 219 ≈ 10
Russia 146 ≈ 6.5
Finland 142 ≈ 6.5
Latvia 138 ≈ 6.3
Germany 118 ≈ 5.5
Estonia 99 ≈ 4.5
Lithuania 80 ≈ 3.5
If we then look more closely at what needs to be done and the
actual quantities (tonnes of nitrogen) that must be prevented from
entering the Belt Sea and the Sound, the model shows that only
barely 12 per cent of the desired total reduction in nitrogen inputs
needs to be achieved on the shores of this sea area. By contrast,
almost half (48 per cent) of the overall reduction must be effected
in the countries around the Baltic Sea proper. The high rate of water
exchange in the Belt Sea and the Sound means that inputs from
the countries on their shores – Denmark, Sweden and Germany –
are rapidly diluted. However, if nutrient levels in the water flowing
into this basin from the Baltic Sea proper are not reduced, the
loading to it will remain high.
NEST in practice:
First steps towards cost-effective measures
The cost calculations performed by the model also show how
much more cost-effective it is for all the countries to take action
than for measures to be introduced only by the countries border-
ing on the basin in question. If, for example, we wanted to reduce
the nitrogen load to the Belt Sea and the Sound by 10 per cent,
then according to the model it would cost almost E 800 million if
abatement measures were only implemented in the adjacent
drainage areas in Denmark, Sweden and Germany. The bill would
on the other hand be slashed to a mere E 38 million if all the Baltic
Sea countries were to work together to attain the intended result
by introducing the measures that were most cost-effective for each
country and sector.
Example 2: The Gulf of FinlandSimilar calculations for the Gulf of Finland, where a halving of ni-
trogen inputs would cost a total of almost E 1.7 billion, show that
local inputs from Russia, Estonia and Finland have the biggest
impact on the environmental status of this basin. To halve inputs
of nitrogen to the Gulf of Finland, according to the model, these
three countries should together assume responsibility for 56 per
cent of the total investment required.
Country E million per year Share of total (%)
over 15 years
Russia 729 ≈ 43.5
Poland 394 ≈ 23.5
Sweden 117 ≈ 7
Finland 110 ≈ 6.5
Estonia 99 ≈ 6
Denmark 71 ≈ 4
Latvia 69 ≈ 4
Lithuania 47 ≈ 3
Germany 38 ≈ 2
At the same time, the model reveals that inputs from Poland, for
example, are of major significance for the state of the environ-
ment even in a sea area as far away from Poland as the Gulf of
Finland. The calculations show that almost a quarter (around 23
per cent) of the investments needed to reduce nitrogen inputs
should be made in Poland, if a halving of the load to this basin
is to be accomplished as cost-effectively as possible.
If, on the other hand, the aim is to cut inputs to the Gulf of
Finland by just 10 per cent, the importance of local abatement
measures becomes very clear. In this case, the model shows that
no less than 91 per cent of the total investment needs to be under-
taken in Finland, Estonia and Russia in order to bring about the
reduction in the most cost-effective manner.
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First researcher training coursemakes the grade
These were some of the comments made on the MAREprogramme’s first researcher training course, held over aperiod of nine days in August 2001 in collaboration withthe Baltic Sea Research Institute at Warnemünde (IOW),which is associated with Rostock University. The coursewas based at the Stockholm Marine Research Centre’sAskö field station, in the Trosa archipelago.
This international, multidisciplinary course on thetheme of eutrophication was attended by 18 postgradu-ate students representing a total of eight nationalities.Participants came from Stockholm University (systemsecology and botany), Göteborg University (physicaloceanography), the Chalmers University of Technology(analytical and marine chemistry), Linköping University(hydrology), the Swedish University of AgriculturalSciences, SLU (economics), the Beijer Institute of theRoyal Swedish Academy of Sciences (economics),Bremen University (tropical marine ecology) and IOW(physical oceanography, biological oceanography andmarine geology). The lecturers were from Sweden
‘A good course, providing a useful survey of the current state of knowledge.
Things fell into place, concepts became clearer, a little more of the context emerged.
Excellent and enjoyable training in interdisciplinary collaboration. It gave us some perspective on
how our own fields fit into the larger picture. We did not always understand each other, but were forced to
explain our own subjects and try to understand those of the other participants.’
‘If MARE arranges more researcher training courses, then I think participants from a wider range of
Baltic Sea countries, perhaps Poland in particular, should be invited. It would be useful to attend a course
of this kind alongside people who one day could end up as one’s fellow researchers in other parts of
the Baltic Sea area. It might also help to lend greater impetus to future applications of the programme’s results.’
(Stockholm and Göteborg Universities and SLU), Ger-many (IOW) and the Russian Federation (StockholmUniversity).
Jörgen Öberg and Pia Ahnlund from the Departmentof Oceanography at Göteborg University, and HenrikScharin and Sandra Lerda from the Beijer Institute wentto Askö with different expectations. An important com-mon denominator, though, was their desire to fill some ofthe gaps in their knowledge – at a detailed level in the caseof the participants who had already been involved forsome time in Baltic Sea research (including the MAREprogramme), and at a more general level for those whowere relative newcomers to MARE and Baltic Sea issues.
A highly appreciated feature of the course was astudy visit to the Himmerfjärden sewage treatmentplant. Apart from this, the more practical side of the pro-gramme consisted primarily of project work undertakenby small groups of postgraduates from different discip-lines and countries. In consultation with course tutors,these groups devised a number of practical exercises in
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Project Postdoctoral Post- and Techniciansresearchers under- and admin.
graduates
women men women men women men
WP 1 Ecological properties 1 3 2 1
WP 2 Physical/biogeochemicalmodelling 5 2 2 1 1
WP 3 Nitrogen fixation 3 1
WP 4 Sediments 1 3
WP 5 Fish and fisheries 3 2
WP 6 Costs of measures 1 1 2 3
WP 7 Decision support system 1 2
Management-communication 1 2
Total 4 19 6 8 4 3
interdisciplinary problem-solving, on the common themeof ‘identifying cost-effective strategies to tackle eutrophi-cation’. They were asked to select one of five basins ofthe Baltic Sea as a test area, and to use the NEST modeland the DAS (Data Assimilation System) database intheir work.
Postgraduates from Swedish universities subsequent-ly had the option of doing further work on their projects,which three groups chose to do. By taking the courseand producing a report on such an extended project,each participant was able to earn five university creditsin the Swedish system.
‘The group projects and report writing were veryrewarding. It was interesting and useful to work on an
interdisciplinary basis, and we learned a great deal,’ sayJörgen, Pia, Henrik and Sandra, whose reports can nowbe downloaded from the MARE website. They alsohave a few suggestions to make to the organizers of anynew MARE researcher training courses:
‘More broad-based background material for partici-pants to study in advance, so that they are a bit betterprepared to deal with the subjects outside their ownfields. Perhaps a wider range of graduates from otherBaltic Sea states, working in disciplines that are clearlyrelevant to eutrophication of the Baltic. More time forthe practical, interdisciplinary group work – perhaps aslightly longer course, to allow the group projects to be-gin sooner, while still leaving plenty of time to digestnew knowledge and discuss questions that arise.’
Executive CommitteeThe Executive Committee of the MARE programme ischaired by Sven-Erik Skogsfors, formerly of the StockholmInternational Water Institute (SIWI). The Helsinki Com-mission (HELCOM) is represented by Lars Svendsen ofthe Danish National Environmental Research Institute(DMU), in his capacity as a member of its Monitoringand Assessment Group (MONAS). Sören Persson of theFederation of Swedish Farmers (LRF) and Ulla-Britta Fal-lenius of the Swedish Environmental Protection Agencyrepresent the programme’s stakeholders, while the researchcommunity is represented by Katarina Eckerberg at theDepartment of Political Science, Umeå University. JanNilsson is the Committee’s contact at MISTRA.
Programme managementOverall management is shared between the ProgrammeDirector, Sif Johansson, and the Scientific Coordinator,Fredrik Wulff. The programme is divided into seven sub-programmes, or work packages (WP), six of which fallwithin the three main areas of ecology, physical and bio-geochemical modelling, and economics. The seventh sub-programme is concerned with developing the decisionsupport model and integrating the other components inthis model. In 2001, a total of 44 people were involved inthe MARE programme on a full-time basis:
Financial report Sums disbursed in 1999–2001
Project costs SEK ’000
WP 1 Ecological properties 2 380
WP 2 Physical/biogeochemical modelling 5 079
WP 3 Nitrogen fixation 890
WP 4 Sediments 1 975
WP 5 Fish and fisheries 870
WP 6 Costs of measures 3 030
WP 7 Decision support system 2 010
Joint programme costs 1 113
Programme director, executive committee and management 1 674
VAT 1 645
– 13 –
EU-funded programmes Other programmes
BIOMARE WP 1 II
CHARM WP 1, WP 7
MEAD, OAERRE WP 2 I
SIGNAL WP 3
BOING WP 4, WP 7 II
EVALWET, Mine waters WP 6
CooperationCooperation with other research projects
EU-funded programmes
• Implementation and Networking of Large-scale Long-term Marine Biodiversity Research in Europe(BIOMARE), linked to WP1 (analysis of marinebiodiversity).
• Significance of External/Anthropogenic Nitrogen forCentral Baltic Sea N-cycling (SIGNAL), linked toWP3 (nitrogen fixation).
• Marine Effects of Atmospheric Deposition (MEAD),linked to WP2 (physical and biogeochemical modelling).
• Oceanographic Applications on Eutrophication inRegions of Restricted Exchange (OAERRE), linkedto WP2 (physical and biogeochemical modelling).
• Evaluation of wetlands (EVALWET), linked to WP6(costs of measures).
• Environmental Regulation of Mine Waters in theEuropean Union, cooperation with WP6 (costs ofmeasures).
• Basic On-line Interactive Geographical and Environ-mental Information Service (BOING), linked to WP4(sediments) and WP7 (decision support system).
• Characterization of the Baltic Sea Ecosystem: Dy-namics and Function of Coastal Types (CHARM),linked to WP1, WP7 and MARE communication.
Cooperation between the Baltic Sea states to elaboratea basis for implementing the EU Water FrameworkDirective, which also covers the coastal waters of theBaltic Sea.
Other programmes
I. Dynamics of wind-forced diapycnal mixing in thestratified ocean (DIAMIX). This project is supported bythe Swedish Research Council and is linked to WP2(physical and biogeochemical modelling).
II. Recycling of N, P, Si and C in Baltic Sea sediments –effects of macrofauna and resuspension. The project isfunded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agen-cy’s Environmental Research Council. It is a collabora-tive project involving researchers from WP4 (sediments)and WP1 (ecological properties).
In the course of 2001, several of the programme’s re-searchers presented research results from MARE, ordiscussed the decision support system as a whole, atvarious conferences and seminars aimed at the usercommunity:
• A workshop was held with HELCOM’s Monitoringand Assessment Group (MONAS). The concept waspresented and discussed, and the Group askedMARE to get back to them when a demonstration ofthe decision support system was possible.
• At the Baltic Sea Science Congress (BSSC), theprototype was demonstrated to users and decisionmakers from the countries around the Baltic. Specificresearch findings were reported in a number of indi-vidual papers.
Dialogue with users• MARE was presented to the international working
group for the Baltic Sea, which is preparing guide-lines on implementation of the EU’s Water Frame-work Directive.
• At the programme’s annual meeting with theSwedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute(SMHI), the prototype was presented and futurecollaboration discussed.
• Arrangements were made for seminars on the deci-sion support system to be held, under the auspices ofHELCOM MONAS, at the environmental agenciesin Helsinki, Riga, Berlin and Copenhagen. At theseseminars, which took place early in 2002, the proto-type was demonstrated and possible cooperation onfurther development of the system was discussed.
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Scientific publications 2001Björk, G., Gustafsson, B. G., and Stigebrandt, A. (2001): Upper
layer circulation of the Nordic Seas as inferred from the spatialdistributions of heat and freshwater content and potentialenergy. Polar Oceanography 20: 161–168.
Byström, O., Andersson, H., and Gren, I.-M. (2001): Wetlands forcost effective management of marine waters: An application to the BalticSea. Working Paper 4, Dept. of Economics, Swedish Universityof Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala.
Carman, R., Danielsson, Å., Rahm, L., and Aigars, J. (2001): Re-cent paleoecological sediment records of biogenic silica as anindication of the eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. (Submitted.)
Diaz, R. J., and Rosenberg, R. (2001): Overview of anthropogen-ically-induced hypoxic effects on marine benthos. In: CoastalHypoxia: Consequences for Living Resources and Ecosystems (eds. N. C.Rabalias and R. E. Turner): Coastal & Estuarine Studies 58.Am. Geophys. Union, Washington, D.C., pp. 129–145.
Duchêne, J.-C., and Rosenberg, R. (2001): Marine benthicfaunal activity patterns on a sediment surface assessed byvideo numerical tracking. Mar. Ecol. Prog. Ser. 223:113–119.
Elmgren, R., and Larsson, U. (2001): Nitrogen and the BalticSea: Managing nitrogen in relation to phosphorus. In: Optimiz-ing Nitrogen Management in Food and Energy Production and Environ-mental Protection: Proceedings of the 2nd International Nitrogen Confer-ence on Science and Policy. – The Scientific World 1.
Elmgren, R. (2001): Understanding human impact on the Balticecosystem: Changing views in recent decades. Ambio 30: 222–231.
Green, M., and Stigebrandt, A. (2001): Linear friction in Öre-sund – an artefact of non-linear response of current meters.Continental Shelf Research (in press).
Green, M., and Stigebrandt, A., Instrument induced Linear FlowResistance in Oresund (to appear in Continental Shelf Research).
Gren, I.-M. (2001): International versus national actions againstpollution of the Baltic Sea. Environmental and Resource Economics20(1): 41–59.
Gren, I.-M. (2001): Permit market for standastic pollution, noncomplianceand market power. Working paper 2001:7, Dept. of Economics,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
Gren, I.-M., Destouni, G., and Tempone, R. (2001): Costs andalternative specifications on pollutant probability distributions.(Submitted.)
Gren, I.-M., and Folmer, H. (2001): Cooperative vs. non-coopera-tive abatement of standastic pollution: The case of the BalticSea. (Submitted.)
Gustafsson, B. G. (2001): Quantification of water, salt, oxygen andnutrient exchange of the Baltic Sea from observations in the Arko-na Basin. Continental Shelf Research 21 (13–14): 1485–1500.
Gustafsson, B. G. (2001): Coupled-basin models – advantagesand limitations. Extended abstract in: Long-term Modelling of theBaltic. A report from a scientific workshop arranged by theMARE research program (eds. Sjöberg, B., Nerheim, S., Stige-brandt, A., and Öberg, J.), C37, Earth Sciences Centre, Göte-borg University.
Gustafsson, B. G., and Andersson, H. C. (2001): On the forcingof Baltic Sea water and salt exchange. In: Conference Proceedings ofThird Study Conference on BALTEX (Mariehamn, Åland, 2–6 July2001), International Baltex Secretariat, Publ. 20, Geesthacht,Germany, pp. 77–78.
Gustafsson, B. G., and Andersson, H. C. (2001): Modelling theexchange of the Baltic Sea from the meridional atmosphericpressure difference across the North Sea, Journal of GeophysicalResearch (in press).
Hansen, P. K., Ervik, A., Schaaning, M. Johannessen, P., Aure, J.,Jahnsen, T., and Stigebrandt, A. (2001): Regulating the localenvironmental impact of intensive marine fish farming. II. Themonitoring programme of the MOM system (Monitoring –Ongrowing fish farms – Modelling). Aquaculture 194: 75–92.
Hansson, S., Karlsson, L., Ikonen, E., Christensen, O., Mitans,A., Uzars, D., Petersson, E., and Ragnarsson, B. (2001):Stomach analyses of Baltic salmon from 1959–1962 and 1994–1997: possible relations between diet and yolk-sac-fry mortality(M74). Journal of Fish Biology 58: 1730–1745.
Hart, R. (2001): Schumpeterian growth and sustainability: creative de-struction of the environment? SLU Dept. of Economics WorkingPaper Series 2001:6. Dept. of Economics, Swedish Universityof Agricultural Sciences.
Hart, R. (2001): Growth, environment, and culture – encompass-ing competing ideologies in one ‘new growth’ model. (Forth-coming in Ecological Economics.)
Hart, R. (2001): Dynamic pollution control – time lags and opti-mal restoration of marine ecosystems. (Submitted.)
Hart, R., and Brady, M. (2001): Nitrogen in the Baltic Sea –Policy Implications of Stock Effects. (Provisionally accepted byJournal of Environmental Management.)
Hjerne, O., and Hansson, S. (2001): Constant catch or constantharvest rate? The Baltic Sea cod (Gadus morhua L.) fishery as amodelling example. Fish. Res. 53: 57–70.
Hjerne, O., and Hansson, S. (2001): The role of fish and fisheriesin Baltic Sea nutrient dynamics. (Manuscript under revision byLimnology and Oceanography.)
Humborg, C., Danielsson, Å., Sjöberg, B., and Green, M. (2001):Nutrient land-sea fluxes in oligotrophic and pristine estuariesof the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea. (Submitted.)
Jickels, T. D., Boesch, D. F., Colijn, F., Elmgren, R., Frykblom,P., Mee, L. D., Pacyna, J. M., Voss, M., and Wulff, F. (2001):Group Report: Transboundary Issues. In: Science and IntegratedCoastal Management (eds. B. von Bodungen and R. K. Turner),pp. 93–112. Dahlem University Press, Berlin.
Josefson, A. B., Forbes, T. L., and Rosenberg, R. (2001): Fateof phytodetritus in marine sediments – importance of macro-faunal community function. Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser. (Accepted).
Jönsson, A., Danielsson, Å., and Rahm, L. (2001): Influence ofwave energy on bottom dynamics in the Baltic Sea. (Submitted.)
Larsson, U., Hajdu, S., Walve, J., and Elmgren, R. (2001): Balticnitrogen fixation estimated from the summer increase in uppermixed layer total nitrogen. Limnology and Oceanography 46(4):811–820.
Nissling, A., Westin, L., and Hjerne, O. (2001): Reproductivesuccess in relation to salinity for three flatfish species, dab(Limanda limanda), plaice (Pleuronectes platessa) and flounder(Pleuronectes flesus) in the brackish water Baltic Sea. ICESJournal of Marine Science (in press).
Omstedt, A., Gustafsson, B. G., and Andersson, H. C. (2001):Improved possibility for climate scenario modelling of theBaltic Sea circulation. SWECLIM Newsletter 10, SMHI, Norr-köping, Sweden, pp. 24–27.
Publications and degree theses, 1999–2001
– 15 –
Rasmussen, B., Gustafsson, B. G., Stockenberg, A., and Ærte-bjerg, G. (2001): Nutrient loads, advection and turnover atthe entrance to the Baltic Sea. (Submitted)
Rasmussen, B., Gustafsson, B. G., Ærtebjerg, G., and Lunds-gaard, C. (2001): Oxygen saturation and consumption at theBaltic Entrance from 1974 to 2000. (Submitted.)
Rosenberg, R. (2001): Marine benthic faunal successional stagesand related sedimentary activity. Sci. Mar. 65 (Suppl. 2): 107–119.
Rosenberg, R., Agrenius, S., Nilsson, H. C., and Hellman, B.(2001): Succession in marine benthic habitats and fauna in aSwedish fjord following improved oxygen conditions.(Accepted.)
Rosenberg, R., Nilsson, H. C., and Diaz, R. J. (2001): Responseof benthic fauna and changing sediment redox profiles over ahypoxic gradient. Estuar. Coast. Shelf Sci. 53: 343–350.
Savchuk, O., and Wulff, F. (2001): A model of the biogeochemi-cal cycles of nitrogen and phosphorus in the Baltic. In: F.Wulff, L. Rahm and P. Larsson (eds.): A Systems Analysis of theBaltic Sea. Ecological Studies, Vol. 148, Chapter 4, pp. 373–415,Springer Verlag.
Savchuk, O. (2001): Nutrient biogeochemical cycles in the Gulfof Riga: scaling up field studies with a mathematical model.J. Mar. Systems (accepted).
Sjöberg, B., Nerheim, S., Stigebrandt, A., and Öberg, J. (2001):Long term oceanographic modelling of the Baltic. Report froma workshop arranged by MARE. Göteborg University, ESC,C37.
Stigebrandt, A. (2001): Land-Sea Exchanges: Fjord circulation.Encyclopaedia of Oceanography, pp. 897–902.
Stigebrandt, A. (2001): Physical Oceanography of the Baltic Sea.In: A Systems Analysis of the Baltic Sea (eds. F. Wulff, L. Rahm andP. Larsson), Chapter 2, pp. 19–74, Springer Verlag.
Stigebrandt, A. (2001): FjordEnv – a water quality model for fjords andother inshore waters. Göteborg University, Earth Sciences Centre,Report C40.
Swaney, D., Humborg, C., and Savchuk, O. A comparative bio-geochemical budget of coastal Baltic ecosystems. (Submitted.)
Tengberg, A., Ståhl, H., Gust, G., Hall, P., Müller, V., Arning, U.,and Andersson, H. (2001): Intercalibration of benthic fluxchambers I. Accuracy of flux measurements and influence ofchamber hydrodynamics. (Submitted.)
Witek, Z., Humborg, C., Savchuck, O., Lysiak-Pastuszack, E.,and Grelowski, A. (2001): Nitrogen and phosphorus budgetsof the Gulf of Gdansk. (Submitted.)
Wulff, F., Bonsdorff, E., Gren, I.-M., Johansson, S., and Stige-brandt, A. (2001): Giving advice on cost effective measuresfor a cleaner Baltic Sea: a challenge to science. Ambio 30 (4–5):245–259.
Wulff, F., Rahm, L., Hallin, A.-K., and Sandberg, J. (2001): Anutrient budget model of the Baltic Sea. In: F. Wulff, L. Rahmand P. Larsson (eds.): A Systems Analysis of the Baltic Sea. Eco-logical Studies, Vol. 148, Chapter 13, pp. 353–372. SpringerVerlag.
Wulff, F., Rahm, L., and Larsson, P. (2001): Introduction –Large-scale environmental effects and ecological processes inthe Baltic Sea. In: F. Wulff, L. Rahm and P. Larsson (eds.):A Systems Analysis of the Baltic Sea. Ecological Studies, Vol. 148,Chapter 1, pp. 1–17. Springer Verlag.
Öberg, J. (2001): A model of macroalgal mats in shallow bays.(Submitted.)
Scientific publications 1999 and 2000Bonsdorff, E., Rönnberg, C., and Aarnio, K. (2000): Eutrophica-
tion of the Baltic Sea: Can ecology contribute to a decision-support system for cost-effective measures? Symposium onNutrient Over-Enrichment of Coastal Waters: Global Patternsof Cause and Effect. National Academy of Sciences, Washing-ton DC, October 11–13, 2000. Abstracts, pp. 11–12.
Byström, O., Andersson, H., and Gren, I.-M. (2000): Wetlandsfor cost effective abatement of standastic nutrient loads. Eco-logical Economics, 35–45.
Elofsson, K. (2000): Cost efficient reductions of standastic nutrient loadsto the Baltic Sea. Working Papers series 2000:6, Dept. of Eco-nomics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala.
Gren, I.-M., Wulff, F., and Turner, K. (2000): Introduction. In:Gren, I.-M., Wulff, F., and Turner, K. (eds.): Managing a Sea.The Ecological Economics of the Baltic. Earthscan, pp. 1–9.
Gren, I.-M. (2000): Pooling versus separating payments for environmentalproduction on arable land. Working Paper 7, Dept. of Economics,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala.
Gren, I.-M., and Andersson, H. (2000): Cost effective risk man-agement of pollutant emissions. Paper submitted to EuropeanAssociation of Resource and Environmental Economics confer-ence, Southampton, 2001.
Gren, I.-M., Destouni, G., and Scharin, H. (2000): Costs andinstruments for management of standastic water pollution.Environmental Modelling and Assessment 5(4): 193–203.
Gren, I.-M., Wulff, F., and Turner, K. (2000): Conclusion. In:Gren, I.-M., Wulff, F., and Turner, K. (eds.): Managing a Sea.The Ecological Economics of the Baltic. Earthscan, London, 2000,pp. 121–129.
Gunnarsson, J. S., Björk, M., Gilek, M., Granberg, M. E., andRosenberg, R. (2000): Effects of eutrophication on contam-inant cycling in marine benthic systems. Ambio 29: 252–259.
Gustafsson, B. (1999): Simulation of the long-term circulation ofthe Baltic Sea. In: Proceedings of the Third BASYS Annual ScienceConference (Warnemünde, Germany, 20–22 September 1999).
Gustafsson, B. G. (2000): Physically induced long-term variationsof deep-water oxygen concentration in the Gullmar Fjord,Sweden. (Submitted.)
Gustafsson, B. G. (2000): Time-dependent modeling of theBaltic Entrance Area. 2. Water and salt exchange of theBaltic Sea. Estuaries 23(2): 253–266.
Hansson, S. (1999): Ecological aspects on fisheries management.International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES),C.M. 1999/Z:04, mimeo.
Hansson, S. (1999): Report from International Council for theExploration of the Sea (ICES): working group on ecologicaleffects from fishery.
Hart, R. (2000): Dynamic control of stock pollutants – cost effective re-sponse to targets. Working Papers series 2000:1 and Paper II indoctoral thesis to be presented in March 2002. Dept. of Eco-nomics, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.
Hart, R. (2000): Explaining unemployment: the Shapiro-Stiglitzshirking model. In: Economic Knowledge and Economic Advice (ed.Daniel W. Bromley), SLU Dept. of Economics Report 135.Dept. of Economics, Swedish Univ. of Agricultural Sciences.
Hart, R., and Brady, M. (2000): Cost-effective control of stock pollu-tants. Working Papers series 2000:2, Dept. of Economics,Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, and Paper I indoctoral thesis to be presented in March 2002.
Hildén, M., Arnason, R., Hansen, K., Hansson, S., Jalonen, P.,Mickwitz, P., and Vilhjamsdottir, H. (2000): The relationshipbetween environment and fisheries information. TemaNord541:1–100.
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Humborg, C., Conley, D. J., Rahm, R., Wulff, F., Cociasu, A.,and Ittekkot, V. (1999): Silica retention in river basins: farreaching effects on biogeochemistry and aquatic food webs incoastal marine environments. Ambio 29: 45–50.
Liljebladh, B., and Stigebrandt, A. (2000): The contribution ofthe surface layer via internal waves to the energetics of deep-water mixing in the Baltic. (Under revision.)
Nilsson, H. C., and Rosenberg, R. (2000): Succession in marinebenthic habitats and fauna in response to oxygen deficiencyanalysed by sediment profile imaging and grab samples. Mar.Ecol. Prog. Ser. 197: 139–149.
Omstedt, A., Gustafsson, B. G., Rodhe, J., and Walin, G. (2000):Use of Baltic Sea modelling to investigate the water cycles andthe heat balance in GCM and regional climate models. ClimateResearch 15: 95–108.
Rasmussen, B., and Gustafsson, B. G., (2000): Computation ofNutrient Pools and Fluxes at the entrance to the Baltic Sea,1974–1999. (Revised version submitted.)
Rosenberg, R., Nilsson, H. C., Hellman, B., and Agrenius, S.(2000): Depth correlated benthic quantity and infaunal burrowstructures on the slopes of a marine depression. Est. Coast. ShelfSci. 50: 843–853.
Rosenberg, R., and Selander, E. (2000): Alarm signal response inthe brittle star Amphiura filiformis. Mar. Biol. 136: 43–48.
Savchuk, O. (1999): Simulation of the Baltic Sea Eutrophication.Extended abstract in Proceedings of the Third BASYS AnnualScience Conference (Warnemünde, Germany, 20–22 September1999).
Savchuk, O., and Wulff, F. (1999): Modelling regional and large-scale responses of the Baltic Sea ecosystems to nutrient reduc-tions. Hydrobiologica 393: 35–43.
Savchuck, O. (2000): Studies of the assimilation capacity andeffects of nutrient load reductions in the eastern Gulf of Fin-land with a biogeochemical model. Boreal Environment Research(accepted).
Skei, J., Larsson, P., Rosenberg, R., Jonsson, P., Olsson, M.,and Broman, D. (2000): Eutrophication and contaminants inaquatic ecosystems. Ambio 29: 184–194.
Stigebrandt, A. (2000): Oceanic freshwater fluxes in the climatesystem. In: The Freshwater Budget of the Arctic Ocean (eds. E. L.Lewis, E. P. Jones, P. Lemke, T. P. Prowse and P. Wadhams).NATO Science Ser. – 2. Environmental Security, Vol. 70, pp.1–20, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Wulff, F. (2000): Impact of Changed Nutrient Loads on theBaltic Sea. In: Gren, I.-M., Wulff, F., and Turner, K. (eds.):Managing a Sea. The Ecological Economics of the Baltic. Earthscan,London, 2000, pp. 57–65.
Popular science 2000 and 2001Bonsdorff, E. (2001): Skärgårdshavets nationalpark - skyddsbe-
hov för livet under ytan. Skärgård 3/2001: 36-39.Bonsdorff, E. and Mattila, J. (2001): Marin miljöforskning i sam-
hällets tjänst. Skärgård 3/2001: 73-75.Bonsdorff, E. and Mattila, J. (2001): Marin miljöforskning i våra
skärgårdsvatten. In: Blomqvist, E. M. (ed.): Från teknik till etik.Miljöförståelse i universitetsperspektiv. Åbo Akademis Förlag; pp.155-161.
Gren, I.-M., Elmgren, R., Enquist, A., Larsson, U. and Scharin,H. (2000): Value of nutrient abatement in new sewage cleaningtechnologies and in coastal zones. Vatten 56: 21–27.
Hansson, S. (2000): Östersjöns fisk – i kläm mellan fiske ochövergödning. Fauna och Flora 95: 169–176.
Hansson, S. (2001): Modernt, storskaligt fiske i Östersjön.Kungl. Skogs- ochLantbruksakademiens Tidskrift 140(10): 77–81.
Hansson, S. (2001): Modernt, storskaligt fiske i Östersjön.Rospiggen 2002: 111–115.
Rosenberg, R., and Nilsson, H. C. (2001): Bottnarna i Bohusländrabbades hårt av syrebristen under 1997–98. Havsmiljön.Thematic issue: Syrebrist i havet, pp. 34–35.
Degree theses 2000 and 2001Doctoral thesesBengt Liljebladh (May 2000): Experimental studies of some physical
oceanographic processes. Göteborg University, Oceanography/Earth Sciences Centre, publ. A54.
Lars Arneborg (June 2000): Oceanographic studies of internal wavesand diapycnal mixing. Göteborg University, Oceanography/Earth Sciences Centre, publ. A59.
Lars Axell (April 2001): Turbulent mixing in the ocean with appli-cation to Baltic Sea Modeling. Göteborg University, Ocean-ography/Earth Sciences Centre, publ. A66. (Co-supervisor:A. Omstedt).
Licentiate thesesOlle Hjerne (May 2000): Fish and fisheries management in an ecological
context, with emphasis on the Baltic Sea. Dept. of Systems Ecology,Stockholm University.
Cecilia Rönnberg (December 2001): Effects and Consequences ofEutrophication in the Baltic Sea, Specific Patterns in Different Regions.Åbo Akademi University.
Anette Jönsson (2001): The Baltic Wave Field – Impacts on the sedi-ment and biogeochemistry. Water and Environmental Studies,Linköping University.
Master’s thesesCecilia Andersson (2000): Nutrient budgets and estimates of nutrient
retention in some estuaries of the Bothnian Bay. Dept. of SystemsEcology, Stockholm University, 28 pp.
Henrik Andersson (2001): Sedimentary carbon dynamics in theHanö Bay, Baltic Sea: Diagenetic modelling of field data. GöteborgUniversity, 20 pp.
Maria Andersson (2001): Recycling of nitrogen and carbon in sedimentsof the Hanö Bay, the Baltic Sea. Göteborg University, 20 pp.
Karolina Heed (2001): Sea-floor fluxes of oxygen, their spatial variabilityand apparent dependence on other sedimentary parameters in the HanöBay, the Baltic Sea. Göteborg University, 10 pp.
Text and editing: Ardea Miljö
English translation: Martin Naylor
Graphic design: Hans Melcherson, Tryckfaktorn
Illustrations: ’’Himmel och hav’’ by Sven Holm (front cover), Tove Jansson (p. 1), Anders Sjöberg, Tiofoto (p. 4),Fredrik Wulff (pp. 9 and 11). Screenshots from the NEST program.
Printing: Risbergs Uddevalla, 2002
MISTRA is a foundation and as such must comply withthe Swedish Foundations Act. The relevant paragraph from the statutes
states that the aim of MISTRA is ‘to support research of strategic importance for agood living environment. The foundation shall promote the developmentof robust research environments of the highest international class that
will have a positive impact on Sweden’s future competitiveness.The research shall play a significant role in solving major
environmental problems and contribute to the development of asustainable society. The potential for achieving industrial
applications shall be realised as far as possible’.
MISTRA distributes about SEK 250 million a year to environmental research.At the beginning of 2001, the foundation’s capital amounted to SEK 4.7 billion.
MISTRA applies the same principles of transparency as thegovernment research councils.
MISTRA funds and organises research aimed at solving strategicenvironmental problems.
A MISTRA programme is considered a success when scientificallyadvanced research has been put to practical use in companies,
authorities or other organisations.
MISTRA funds about 20 major programmes, each of whichshould have a time span of between six and eight years.
Major investment in interdisciplinary research programmesstimulates innovation, new options and new forms of cooperation,
benefiting both Swedish environmental research asa whole and Sweden as a nation.
The Government appoints MISTRA’s board and its chairman.The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, the Royal Swedish Academy
of Engineering Sciences and the Royal Swedish Academy of Agriculture andForestry constantly audit MISTRA’s activities.
The audit reports are published.
MISTRASwedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research
Gamla Brogatan 36-38SE- 111 20 Stockholm, Sweden
Tel: +46- 8 791 10 20 • Fax: +46- 8 791 10 29E-mail: [email protected]
Web site: www.mistra.org
ParticipantsWP 1: Ecological properties in relation to eutrophication
Environmental and Marine Biology, Dept. of Biology, Prof. Erik Bonsdorff ([email protected]), coordinatorÅbo Akademi University, Finland Cecilia Rönnberg, technical assistant ([email protected])
Kristineberg Marine Research Station, Prof. Rutger Rosenberg ([email protected]), coordinatorGöteborg University Karin Karlsson, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
WP 2: Physical and biogeochemical modellingDept. of Oceanography, Göteborg University Prof. Anders Stigebrandt ([email protected]), coordinator
Björn Sjöberg, MSc. ([email protected]), deputy coordinatorAssoc. Prof. Bo Gustafsson ([email protected])Mattias Green, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Karin Gustavsson, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Jörgen Öberg, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Signild Nerheim, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Pia Ahnlund, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
Dept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Prof. Fredrik Wulff ([email protected]), coordinatorOleg Savchuk, visiting researcher ([email protected])Dr Christoph Humburg, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected])
WP 3: Nitrogen fixation in the Baltic SeaDept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Prof. Ragnar Elmgren ([email protected]), coordinator
Assoc. Prof. Ulf Larsson ([email protected])Dr Carl Rolff, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected])Beatrice Crona, technical assistant ([email protected])
WP 4: Eutrophication and Baltic Sea sedimentsWater and Environmental Studies, Linköping University Dr Åsa Danielsson, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected]), coordinator
Prof. Lars Rahm ([email protected])
Analytical and Marine Chemistry, Göteborg University Prof. Per Hall ([email protected])Dr Anders Tengberg, postdoctoral fellow ([email protected])
Dept. of Geology and Geochemistry, Stockholm University Assoc. Prof. Rolf Carman ([email protected])
WP 5: Eutrophication, fish and fisheries in the Baltic SeaDept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Assoc. Prof. Sture Hansson ([email protected]), coordinator
Olle Hjerne, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Jason Van Tassell, visiting student ([email protected])Chris Harvey, visiting researcher
WP 6: Costs of eutrophication abatement measuresDept. of Economics, Prof. Ing-Marie Gren ([email protected]), coordinatorSwedish University of Agricultural Sciences Monica Campos, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
Katarina Elofsson, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Robert Hart, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Ficre Zehaie, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
Beijer Institute, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Henrik Scharin, Ph.D. student ([email protected])Sandra Lerda, Ph.D. student ([email protected])
WP 7: Development of a decision support systemDept. of Systems Ecology, Stockholm University Prof. Fredrik Wulff ([email protected]), coordinator
Alexander Sokolov, system developer/programmer ([email protected])Dr Miguel Rodriguez-Medina, research engineer ([email protected])
MAREMarine Research on Eutrophication –
A Scientific Base for Cost-Effective Measures for the Baltic Sea
ANNUAL REPORT 2001
MAREMarine Research on Eutrophication
– A Scientific Base for Cost-Effective Measures for the Baltic Sea
Further informationE-mail: [email protected]
Web site: www.mare.su.se
