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Market Sentiment Survey H2 2015

Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

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Page 1: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

Market Sentiment

SurveyH2 2015

Page 2: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

Portfolio–RICS–EltingaMarket Sentiment Survey | H2 2015

03 Highlights

04 Explanation

05 Index

07 Office sector

11 Retail sector

15 Industrial sector

18 General sentiment

Page 3: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

3

Yield (%)Rent (€/sqm/month)

Typical Minimum Maximum

Top CBD office building 7 15 13 19.5

Prime non-CBD office building 7.5 12.5 11.25 14

Good quality non-central office building 8 10.75 9.5 12.5

Prime out-of-town logistics centre 8.625 3 2.5 4

Small Business Unit 8.625 4 3 6

Top 5 shopping malls 7 45 30 70

Mall-type retail park 8 10.25 6 15.5

Big box retail 8 7 5 9.25

HighlightsThe Budapest Commercial Property Index has reached 101.39, its highest reading on record. The

second half of 2015 added 6.43 to the index value, the highest increase of any period to date.

The improvement was a result of perceived rental growth and yield compression in almost every

subsegment.

According to RICS Professionals, the Hungarian real estate market could become even more

attractive to investors in the next 6 months. Close to 85% of the respondents expect investment

appetite to improve further, which shows that they are increasingly optimistic about the future of

the real estate market.

Yield compressions were observed with regard to every submarket except for Good Quality

Non-Central Offices and the Top 5 Malls. Office yields are now all below their H2 2011 levels, in-

dustrial yields are below 9% for the first time since the survey started in 2011, while retail yields

remain unchanged compared to H2 2011.

Respondents registered rental growth in almost every subsegment. Top 5 Mall rents increased 7

euros to 45 euros, which is the most significant upward movement on record. Prime Out-of-Town

Logistics is the only subsegment where rents have decreased in H2 2015, while Big Box Retail

rents have remained unchanged. Office rents have surpassed their H1 2011 levels for the first

time in every subsegment.

Based on the answers, the segment that offers the best conditions for developers and investors

is still the office sector. Compared to the previous six months, confidence in the industrial sector

has significantly risen and is now on par with confidence in the retail sector.

All median figures for H2 2015

Page 4: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

4

The most important output resulting from our research is the rental rates and yields data (presented in charts similar to the one below). As this publication is based on the opinions of individuals, these charts reflect the distribution of responses received with respect to a given variable, i.e. rental rates or yields related to a type of property. Extreme values were removed and the ranges of the remaining answers were then divided into subsections. The charts indicate the percentage of responses falling into each subsection, with the median value marked with a red vertical line (the median is the middle value of the data set when it has been arranged in ascend-ing order, i.e. the numeric value separating the higher half of the data from the lower half).

The survey included questions regarding the realistic minimum, maximum, and typical rental rates with respect to a particular type of property. While we also present all of these in a tabular format, the rate charts only include the responses to the question of typical rental rate levels.

Explanation

Rent (€ / sqm / month)

Distribution oftypical rent responses

median of typicalrent responses

median of maximumrent responses

median of minimumrent responses

Rati

o of

res

pons

es (

%)

Explanatory example chart

Page 5: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

5

The Budapest Commercial Property Index has reached 101.39, its highest read-ing on record. The starting value of the Index was set to 100.00 based on survey data collected in the second half of 2011. By H1 2013, it had decreased to the region of 90.00, where it then floated for 18 months. In H2 2014 the index value started to grow again and it reached 94.95 in H1 2015. The second half of 2015 added 6.43 to the index value, the highest increase of any period to date.

The index is made up of a compound value that traces senior real estate profession-als’ assessments of current yields and rental rates for

the commercial real estate market. A measure of value is created by dividing the me-dian typical yearly rent by the current yield for each of the eight subsegments present in the survey, and attributing weights to these values in order to reflect the relative volume of each subsegment. The results are then added up and compared against the other surveys.

Falling yields and rising rents have both contributed to the index finally surpassing its starting value. Rents have increased in H2 2015, rising above H2 2011 levels for the first time on three submar-kets. In most segments of the market yields have decreased in the second half of 2015 and in some cases they stand lower than they did in 2011. However, it should be noted

that current yield opinions are likely to be based on much stronger transactional evidence, while the answers received in 2011 were almost entirely sentiment-based.

The most important drivers of this six months’ record growth were a perceived yield compression with regard to every submarket except for Good Quality Non-Central Offices and the Top 5 Malls, as well as a slight rental growth indicated in relation to almost every submarket. Prime Out-of-Town Logistics is the only subsegment where rents have decreased in H2 2015, while Big Box Retail rents have remained unchanged. These two are the biggest of the eight subsegments, each representing around 30% of the total volume, meaning that had they also recorded rental growth, the value of the index would have been even higher.

101.39

BCP Index(H2 2011=100)

H2 2015 101.39

H1 2015 94.95

H2 2014 93.74

H1 2014 89.67

H2 2013 90.74

H1 2013 90.35

H2 2012 96.53

H1 2012 95.21

H2 2011 100.00

BCP Index

Page 6: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

6

The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major segments of theBudapest commercial property market. Their descriptions include typical characteristics interms of location, quality, size, and occupancy, making them suitable investment products.When asking about rental rates, hypothetical lease transactions were defined to reflect anaverage exchange on the given market in terms of both size and basic conditions. The photosaccompanying each detailed description of buildings are of properties that do not actuallyexist on the Hungarian market. However, they have been selected to create the rightimpressions of the scenario at hand and to ensure that all respondents consider the sameproperty categories when answering the questions.

Categories

1. Top CBD office building

2. Prime non-CBD office building

3. Good quality non-central office building

4. One of the Top 5 shopping malls

5. Mall-type retail park

6. Big box retail

7. Prime out-of-town logistics centre

8. Small Business Unit

Page 7: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

7

In comparison to the results of the previous surveys, all office categories show sig-nificant improvements as to yield and rent levels. Yield responses sharpened in two categories, thus reaching the most aggressive yields in the history of this survey (from H2 2011). Non-central office yield stayed on the same level. That shows an ongoing optimis-tic view of how the market has evolved in the last 24 months. Rents also show a very bright picture with increases between €0.5 and €1.25 shown mostly

in minimum and typical rents. Therefore, almost all rent response catego-ries reached their all-time maximums. Maximum rent only increased in the ‘Top CBD Office’ category by €1.5, thus indicating a po-tential future return to the €19.75 peak in H1 2014. The range between mini-mum and maximum rents widened in the Top CBD Office category, suggesting a more diversified spread of rents among buildings within that category, while it narrowed in the other two categories. On average,

typical rents still continue to have the tendency of approximating minimum rents. Similarly to the last survey, the variance of the responses is relatively high in the first office category with most of the responses falling into the 13-15 euro range but along with a high number of responses also falling into the 16-19 euro range.

Rents have reached record highs.

Office sector

Page 8: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

8

Category A (according to BRF) office building

located within the CBD of Budapest:

– represents the highest standard in the

market in terms of technical specifications

and prestige

– it has an underground garage

– the building is at least 95% let to multiple

tenants,

– at least 80% of the tenants are international

companies

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

4 years

Market headline rental rate for a specific

letting transaction:

– 500 sqm office space

– 5-year lease term

– strong international tenant

Category A (according to BRF) office building

located in an established, but non-CBD office

location:

– represents high standard in the market

in terms of technical specifications and

prestige

– it has an underground garage

– the building is at least 95% let to multiple

tenants

– at least 80% of the tenants are interna-

tional companies

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

4 years

Market headline rental rate for a specific

letting transaction:

– 500 sqm office space

– 5-year lease term

– strong international tenant

1. Top CBD office 2. Prime non-CBD office

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10

-11

11-1

2 12

-13

13-1

4 14

-15

15-1

6 16

-17

17-1

8 18

-19

19-2

0 20

-21

21-2

2 22

-23

23-2

4 24

-25

median = 15

Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)

Yield opinions (%) Yield opinions (%)

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 7

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 7.5

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 22% 24%

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10

-11

11-1

2 12

-13

13-1

4 14

-15

15-1

6 16

-17

17-1

8 18

-19

19-2

0 20

-21

21-2

2 22

-23

23-2

4 24

-25

median = 12.5

Page 9: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

9

Category A (according to BRF) office building

located in a non-central office location:

– built no more than 10 years ago

– it has an underground garage

– good public transportation

– the building is at least 95% let to multiple

tenants, not necessarily of international

covenant

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

3 years

Market headline rental rate for a specific

letting transaction:

– 500 sqm office space

– 4-year lease term

– reliable and financially stable tenant

3. Good quality non-central offices

Office yields have hardened sig-nificantly in the top two office catego-ries. Typical office rent levels have also improved significantly in all categories and reached their highest levels in the history of the survey. It is the first time when all figures in the office categories are more aggressive then the level they were at in H2 2011.

György Lindwurm MRICS, Cushman & Wakefield

The market has clearly gained liquidity, especially in the prime sector. We also start to see development plans, especially in office sector. Yields are compressing.

Jaroslav Kopac MRICS, JLL

Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)

Yield opinions (%)

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 8

0%

6%

12%

18%

24%

30%

36%

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10

-11

11-1

2 12

-13

13-1

4 14

-15

15-1

6 16

-17

17-1

8 18

-19

19-2

0 20

-21

21-2

2 22

-23

23-2

4 24

-25

median = 10.75

Page 10: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

10

Distribution of responses in ‘CBD office rent’ category

Distribution of responses in ‘Prime Non-CBD office rent’ category

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-1

1

11-1

2

12-1

3

13-1

4

14-1

5

15-1

6

16-1

7

17-1

8

18-1

9

19-2

0

20-2

1

21-2

2

22-2

3

23-2

4

Typical rent frequency (2015 H2) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2015 H1) (MA)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10-1

1

11-1

2

12-1

3

13-1

4

14-1

5

15-1

6

16-1

7

17-1

8

18-1

9

19-2

0

Typical rent frequency (2015 H2) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2015 H1) (MA)

Page 11: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

11

This time, compared to last results, the retail sector has again shown improve-ment in sentiment towards yield expectations but also towards rental levels. Yields for the Top 5 malls category have clearly sta-bilised at a 7% yield level. This is despite any actual transaction occurring on the market. For Mall type retail parks and Big Box retail we have observed further yield compression (same as in the last round), and the resulting yields

have moved back to the level quoted at the start of the survey in H2 2011, stabilising at 8%.

Opinions on rental levels have increased rather significantly for the Top 5 malls category (15-20%). For Mall type retail parks this movement was less significant. Respondents feel typical rents have increased by 2%, which is

a result of a 3% increase in maximum rents and a 15% decrease in minimum rents.

This overall positive movement is noted despite the introduction of new legislation in Q1 2015 which was expected to negatively affect the retail sector (Sunday closures and food supervisory fee increase).

Top 5 Mall rents showed significant upward movement.

Retail sector

Page 12: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

12

Prime shopping centre located in Budapest,

at a metro station or central location:

– GLA is at least 40,000 sqm, no vacancy

– the property accommodates at least

2 major anchor tenants

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

5 years

Market headline rental rate for a specific

letting transaction:

– 200 sqm retail unit

– 5-7 year lease term

– strong international brand

– well-positioned unit within the centre

Retail park located in Budapest, in an

established location:

– GLA is approx. 12,000 sqm, no vacancy

– the property accommodates at least 1

major anchor tenant

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

5 years

Market headline rental rate for a specific

letting transaction:

– 300-400 sqm

– 5-year lease term

– local company / strong international brand

4. One of the Top 5shopping malls

5. Mall-type retail parks

0% 2% 4% 6% 8%

10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20%

0-5

10-1

5

20-2

5

30-3

5

40-4

5

50-5

5

60-6

5

70-7

5

80-8

5

90-9

5

100-

105

median = 45

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-2

2-4

4-6

6-8

8-10

10

-12

12-1

4 14

-16

16-1

8 18

-20

20-2

2 22

-24

24-2

6 26

-28

28-3

0 30

-32

median = 10.25

Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)

Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)

Yield opinions (%)

Yield opinions (%)

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 7

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 8

Page 13: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

13

Retail park located in Budapest, in an

established location:

– GLA is approx. 12,000 sqm, no vacancy

– the property accommodates at least 1

major anchor tenant

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

5 years

Market headline rental rate for a specific

letting transaction:

– 300-400 sqm

– 5-year lease term

– local company / strong international brand

6. Big box retail

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0-1

1-2

2-3

3-4

4-5

5-6

6-7

7-8

8-9

9-10

10

-11

11-1

2 12

-13

13-1

4 14

-15

15-1

6

median = 7

The market is clearly improving. Value-add investors are dominant while core investors still have not returned to Hungary in great numbers. The reasons for this are still the financing conditions (margin and LTV) which don’t produce an attractive (competitive) IRR on equity.

György Lindwurm MRICS,Cushman & Wakefield

Finance from banks is becoming more available. The slated decrease of VAT on residential construction should further stimulate this sector.

Hamish White, CIB Bank

Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)

Yield opinions (%)

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 8

Page 14: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

14

Distribution of responses in ‘rental rates for the top 5 malls’ category

Distribution of responses in ‘rental rates for mall type retail parks’ category

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0-5

5-10

10-1

5

15-2

0

20-2

5

25-3

0

30-3

5

35-4

0

40-4

5

45-5

0

50-5

5

55-6

0

60-6

5

65-7

0

70-7

5

Typical rent frequency (2015 H2) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2015 H1) (MA)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

0-2 4-6 8-10 12-14 16-18 20-22 24-26 28-30

Typical rent frequency (2015 H2) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2015 H1) (MA)

Page 15: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

15

Respondents are still cau-tious when considering rents. The results of the survey show hesitation in Prime out-of-town logistics category, even show-ing slight decrease here. Conversely, RICS members are more positive about rental prospects for the Small Business Unit logistic category located within city boundaries. Here we

can see a notable increase on the whole compared to the figures in H1 2015. Typical rents stabilised to a solid €3.00 per sq m per month in the case of logis-tics schemes (€3.25 per sq m per month in H1) and to €4.00 in the case of SBU (€3.75 per sq m per month in H1). As we see more and more transactions in this segment, respondents

have indicated significant improvement in their yield opinions. Yield has stabi-lised for both categories at 8.6% compared to the 9% reported since the intro-duction of the survey.

Confidence in the industrial sector is improving.

Logistics sector

Page 16: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

16

Category A industrial property located within

Budapest, close to main arterial road:

– GLA is at least 10,000 sqm (could be in

multiple buildings)

– the property is approx. 100% let to multiple

tenants

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

3 years

Market headline rental rates for a specific

letting transaction:

– 500 sqm warehouse space

– 3-year lease term

– reliable and financially stable tenant

Category A industrial property located

approx 5 minutes from a motorway:

– GLA is at least 25,000 sqm (could be in

multiple buildings)

– The property is approx. 100% let to multi-

ple tenants

– the average unexpired lease term is at least

4 years

Market headline rental rates for a specific

letting transaction:

– 3,000 sqm warehouse space

– 5-year lease term

– strong international tenant

7. Small Business Units 8. Prime out-of-townlogistics centres

0% 3% 6% 9%

12% 15% 18% 21% 24% 27% 30%

0-0.

5 0.

5-1

1-1.

5 1.

5-2

2-2.

5 2.

5-3

3-3.

5 3.

5-4

4-4.

5 4.

5-5

5-5.

5 5.

5-6

6-6.

5 6.

5-7

7-7.

5 7.

5-8

median = 4

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55%

0-0.

5 0.

5-1

1-1.

5 1.

5-2

2-2.

5 2.

5-3

3-3.

5 3.

5-4

4-4.

5 4.

5-5

5-5.

5 5.

5-6

6-6.

5 6.

5-7

7-7.

5 7.

5-8

median = 3

Rent opinions (€/sqm/m) Rent opinions (€/sqm/m)

Yield opinions (%)Yield opinions (%)

0% 5%

10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

0.5-

10.7

5

11-1

1.25

median = 8.625

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

5-5.

25

5.5-

5.75

6-6.

25

6.5-

6.75

7-7.

25

7.5-

7.75

8-8.

25

8.5-

8.75

9-9.

25

9.5-

9.75

10-1

0.25

10.5

-10.

75

11-1

1.25

median = 8.625

Page 17: Market Sentiment Survey - portfolio.hu · H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey 6 The survey uses eight hypothetical properties intended to represent major

H2 2015 | Portfolio–RICS–Eltinga Market Sentiment Survey

17

Distribution of responses in category ‘rent ofout-of-town logistics buildings’

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0-0.5 0.5-1 1-1.5 1.5-2 2-2.5 2.5-3 3-3.5 3.5-4 4-4.5 4.5-5 5-5.5 5.5-6 6-6.5 6.5-7

Typical rent frequency (2015 H2) (MA) Typical rent frequency (2015 H1) (MA)

Out of town logistics, rents (euro / sqm / month)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2011 H2 2012 H1 2012 H2 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2

typical

maximum

minimum

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General sentiment

Office39%

Retail26%

Industrial24%

Other4%

I don't know7%

Office51%

Retail16%

Industrial16%

Other13%

I don't know4%

Which commercial segment doyou think currently offers the best conditions for an Investor?

How do you think investment appetite for property will change over the next six months?

Which commercial segment do you think currently offers the best conditions for a Developer?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2011H2

2012H1

2012H2

2013H1

2013H2

2014H1

2014H2

2015H1

Don't know Improve Same Worsen

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Budapest Commercial Property Index

Median yields (%)

88

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

2011 H2 2012 H1 2012 H2 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2

7

7.25

7.5

7.75

8

8.25

8.5

8.75

9

9.25

2011 H2

2012 H1

2012 H2

2013 H1

2013 H2

2014 H1

2014 H2

2015 H1

2015 H2

SMALL BUSINESS UNIT

PRIME OUT OF TOWN

LOGISTICS

GOOD QUALITY NON-

CENTRAL OFFICE

MALL TYPE RETAIL PARK

BIG 'BOX RETAIL

PRIME NON-CBD OFFICE

TOP CBD OFFICE

TOP 5 MALL

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Top 5 malls, rents (euro / sqm / month)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2011 H2 2012 H1 2012 H2 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2

typical

maximum

minimum

Top CBD offices, rents (euro / sqm / month)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2011 H2 2012 H1 2012 H2 2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2

typical

maximum

minimum

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A biannual publication, the Market Sentiment Survey is a collaboration between the Eltinga Centre for Real Estate Research, Portfolio and RICS Hungary. It has been designed to provide a clear picture of how Hungary’s senior real estate professionals see current yield and rental rates, as well as general market expectations. The purpose of the Market Sentiment Survey is to improve transparency on the Hungarian real estate market by establishing a benchmark for sentiment, drawing on a wide professional basis. All Hungarian RICS members (both full members and candidates for membership) were invited to fill in a questionnaire prepared by RICS and Portfolio. They were asked for their opinions on current market yields and rental rates, as well as on future market expectations. A total of nearly 40 real estate professionals participated actively in the current Market Sentiment Survey. Of the respondents, 90% were full RICS members and more than 85% have over 10 years of professional experience. The completed surveys indicate that around 50% of respondents work for international companies. Respondents were asked to provide information on their industry and their personal specialty within their organisation. More than 40% of respondents work for consultancy firms. However, developers and asset management professionals also weighed in heavily within the survey. The respondents’ fields of specialisation were fairly diverse: valuation, investment, development and asset management were the best represented categories in the survey.

Ratio of respondents’ own work specialisation

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

asset management

development financing investment valuation other

2013 H1 2013 H2 2014 H1 2014 H2 2015 H1 2015 H2

About the survey

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Market Yield: The current net annual income divided by the purchase price received by theVendor in a transaction where the asset has been traded at Market Value as of today. MarketValue is the estimated amount for which a property should exchange on a certain date;between a willing buyer and a willing seller; in an arm’s length transaction; after proper mar-keting; when both parties had each acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion.

Market Headline Rent: The estimated amount for which a property, or part of a propertyshould lease on appropriate lease terms between a willing landlord and a willing tenant; ona certain date; in an arm’s length transaction; after proper marketing; when both parties hadeach acted knowledgeably, prudently and without compulsion.

Category ‘A’: A building that either conforms to all the „hard criteria“ and at least 6 of the„soft criteria“ or certified by Breeam / LEED. Hard criteria: modern cable management, a modern air handling system, adequate provision of secure dedicated parking (at least a park-ing ratio of 1/75 not applying to refurbishments and a periphery sub-market), a high quality standard finish, 24-hour access and security. Soft criteria: high speed modern lifts, clear ceilingheight of at least 2.70 m, prestige/quality reception area, flexible partitioning, high qualityarchitectural design, services in the building / immediate vicinity, power-supply back-up, double-glazed windows / anti-glare glass, restaurant/canteen, quality finish to working areas.

Budapest Research Forum (BRF): It was established in 2000 and currently includes the follow-ing members: CBRE, Colliers International, Cushman & Wakefield, Eston International, JLL and Robertson Hungary. The aim of BRF is to represent a regulated framework where the leadingproperty advisors can discuss the problems related to the Budapest property market, shareand analyse market information.

Definitions

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RICS – the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors – was created in1868 in the United Kingdom. It received a royal charter in 1881.RICS members are known as chartered surveyors, and are recognisedby the designation after their name – FRICS (for Fellow of RICS) orMRICS (for Member of RICS).

Today RICS is a global property professional body with 100,000qualified members in over 100 countries.The key roles of RICS areto regulate and promote the profession, maintain the highest educa-tional and professional standards, protect clients and consumersthrough a strict code of ethics and provide impartial advice, analysisand guidance

Chartered surveyors help to sustain the use of land and unlock thelong term value of property.They are key to efficient markets inland, property and the environment without which important worldeconomies would not be able to function effectively.

Anna Orcsik, Regional Manager – RICS Central & Eastern EuropeE: [email protected] W: www.rics.org/europe

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• Csanád Csűrös – Business Development Director, Portfolio

• Krisztián Hornok MRICS – Transaction Director, Indotek Group

• Áron Horváth – Eltinga

• Jaroslav Kopac MRICS – National Director – Head of Valuation Hungary, Jones Lang LaSalle Kft.

• György Lindwurm MRICS – Associte – Hungary Capital Markets, Cushman & Wakefield

• Ákos Budai – Portfolio

• Tünde Madurovicz-Tancsics – Eltinga, Portfolio

• Edina Winkler MRICS – Senior Surveyor – Valuation, Cushman & WakefieldRICS Hungary Board Member

Contributors