Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Cheltenham Statisticsletscomparebets.com/mathematician_cheltenham_stats.pdf · Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Cheltenham Statistics ... * That included last

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Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Cheltenham Statistics

Statistics are not flawless. All they are really is a recordableand checkable reflection of history. What happens before isnot certain to dictate future events but it acts as a guide and a context to look at races in. These statistics do that. I havegone back to 1993 to consider what has happened in eachof the Festival races. It’s not so much the statistics that arethe important thing. It’s the interpretation of them that counts.


G E N E R I C S T A T I S T I C S

* Cheltenham have had 63 Handicap Chases in recent years* Thats 63 Handicap Chases Not Novice Handicap Chases* I looked at 7 year olds in these handicap chases* None won carrying 11st or more* All 66 horses aged 7 that tried it Failed

* Cheltenham has had 147 Handicaps since 1994 * Thats every 154 Handicaps over Hurdle and Chases* I looked at horses that were absent 80 + days* I then looked at those with 13 + runs* There were 12 winners absent 80 + days with 13 + runs* The 12 winners had 1 thing in common* They had all ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race before* Avoid all these horses with No Grade 1 or Grade 2 form

* Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in recent years* I looked at horses aged 5-6-7* None of these horses won absent more than 7 weeks * All 67 horses aged 5-6-7 that tried failed

* Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in recent years* I looked at horses from Grade 1 or Grade 2 chases* None of these carried 11st 3lbs or more

* Cheltenham has had 147 Handicaps since 1994 * Thats 147 handicaps over hurdles and fences* There were only 8 winners aged 11 or older* Those that had an absence of 32 + days are 0-123


* Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham in recent years* I looked at horses from a Novice Handicap Chase* All 15 that tried to do this Lost and these were the results* 4 6 8 F PU 10 PU 12 7 9 13 F 13 7 PU* None of the 15 horses Placed in these races

* Every Handicap Chase at Cheltenham since 1993* Thats Not including Novice Handicap Chases* Horses aged 6 and 7 won 16 of these races* None of them had just 1 or 2 runs that season* There were only 4 that did it with 1-2-3 runs that year* Samakaan -Kelami -Andreas -An Accordion* All 4 of these had no more than 11st weight* They 16 winners had the following runs that season* 4 3 5 3 4 6 4 3 3 6 4 7 5 7 7 8* Avoid all 6 and 7 year olds with 1-2 runs this year* Avoid all with 1-2-3 runs that have 11st or more


C h e l t e n h a m T u e s d a y 1.30

William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2m

* The Supreme Novice Hurdle is a Grade 1 over 2m* Horses aged 5 or 6 won 33 of the last 36 renewals* Only 1 horse aged 4 has won this race recently* He came from a Graded race and won a champion hurdle* English horses aged 7 or more were 0-30* English horses aged 5 won 4 renewals* They all had 3-6 career starts* They all had 3 or 4 runs that season* English horses aged 5 with No Grade 1 form won 2 races* English horses aged 5 absent over a month or more are 0-43* English horses aged 6 won 3 renewals* All 3 came from Class 3 Novice Hurdles* Last Time out winners have a strong record* 14 of the last 16 winners won last time* Horses unplaced last time out were 0-109* Horses with 1 run have not won since 1991* Ideally you need 2 + runs over Hurdles before* If it's soft ground you need at least 3 previous races* 9 of the last 19 winners had ran no more than twice over hurdles* The last 2 winners did have 4 previous hurdle starts* Avoid horses with 6 or more runs over hurdles* Horses with 9 + runs were 0-39* You need to have run in Class 3 or higher last time* I wont bet any horses that ran within 2 weeks* I wont bet any horse stepping down from 19f or more (0-27)* I wont bet any horse that wears headgear* Female horses are fine as long as they pass other trends* Horses from Handicaps have a 0-41 record * English horses with less than 2 wins were 0-111* You need a run within 80 days * English horses from Graded Novice hurdles are 0-36* That included last years beaten favourite Cue Card* Every English winner had 2-5 runs this season* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-52 * There was one winner absent 115 days * The vast msjority of winners run within 7 weeks

S t r o n g e s t A n g l e s

* Horses aged 5 or 6* Must be 1st or a close 2nd last time* At least 2 hurdle races but no more than 6* Running over 18f or shorter last time* Running within 80 days (Irish) or 50 days (English)



Racing Post Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase 2m

* The Arkle is a Grade 1 Chase over 2 Miles* I would be wary about 5 year olds* They have recently lost their age allowance* Only 1 of the last 22 winners started chasing after new year* That was Well Chief who should have been champion chaser* Last years winner has 17 days absence * Thats unusual and most runners have 24 + days absence* Horses aged 8 or more had a poor run before winning in 2010* Only Moscow Flyer (Champion Chaser) did it since 1990* Sizing Europe did repair that record winning aged 8 in 2010* Be wary of horses that have been 3rd or worse in any Chase * You want a horse 1st 2nd or Fallen in all their Chase Starts* 10 of the last 11 winners were 1st-2nd in all completed chase runs* 23 of the last 25 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out* Horses with 1 Chase start have won but it's unusual* I would want between 2-5 Chase starts* No winner since 1989 ran more than 5 times over Fences * Only 3 winners since had ran 5 times over Fences * 2 of those horses Fell on a previous start anyway* Too many starts often suggests poor jumpers * The previous winners since 1990 had these chase runs* 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 1 3 5 3 4 2 3 5 5 2 4 4 5 3* The previous winners since 1990 had these days absence* 17 80 23 37 52 22 52 42 24 44 65 24 34 81 22 44 33 52 33 17 10* Every winner contested a Grade 1 or 2 race before* Thats either over hurdles or fences* 10 of the last 11 had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race* Northern runners have not won for 22 years* French Bred Horses have a strong record * Horses with High Class hurdling form won many renewals* You want a horse rated at least 140 over hurdles* 3 of the last 5 winners came from 2m 4f or more* 7 of the last 10 had won before at Cheltenham* 2 of the 3 that didnt had never run their before* The last 14 winners were rated between 154 and 162


* Started Chasing before January 1st that year* You want a horse 1st 2nd or Fallen in all Chasing races* 1st or 2nd last time out* Bet a horse with 2-3-4-5 previous Chase starts* Must have Grade 1 or Grade 2 form over hurdles or fences* You want a horse rated at least 140 over hurdles



JLT Specialty Steeple Chase (A Handicap) 3m 1/2f

* The William Hill Trophy is a 3m Handicap Chase* This is a Crucial Grand National trial * Be wary of horses looking laid out for Aintree * Recent winners had 13-40-17-7-26-19-8-12-19-15-14-14 runs* Recent winners had 5-9-3-6-17-9-7-5-9-11-10-10 Chase runs* Recent winners had 1-3-0-4-14-6-7-0-2-7-4-6 H'cap Chase runs* Horses with 3-11 Chase runs or ideally 5 -11 Chase runs are best* Horses with less than 7 career starts have poor record* 11 of the last 12 winners ran in 7 or fewer Handicap Chases* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won 5 recent renewals* I would avoid any exposed horse with 1-2 runs this year* Exposed horses aged 7-8-9 had a 0-50 record* All 4 Exposed winners had form in Grade 1-2 races* No exposed horse came from 2m 4f to win* I am against horses with 1 run this season* No seasonal debutants have won in recent years* Only 1 horse aged 6 has won Since 1972 and 1956* Horses aged 11 have a poor 1-48 record* There hasnt been one placed in the last 13 years* I wouldnt want a horse that comes from 2m 4f or shorter* I would avoid horses out of the handicap* Horses that had 11st 6lbs or more had a 1-39 record* 16 of the last 18 winners had no more than 11st 2lbs* Two winners with 11st 3lbs or more had this in common* Both were exposed with 5 + runs that year* Both had Grade 1 form and ran within 7 weeks* 11 of the last 12 winners carried less than 11st* The one that didn't was 2001 Bensalem with 11st 2lbs* You rarely get a winner rated 150 or more* Since 1997 the highest rated winner was rated 149* Every past winner has ran in at least Listed Class before* Horses from 2m 6f or less won 3 races* They were all aged at least 9 and had form in Grade 1 class* 15 of the last 18 winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out* Horses aged 6-7-8-9 that were not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-68* Horses not 1-2-3-4 in the last 7 weeks were just 1-80* Horses from a Graded Race and not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-57* Horses from 3m or shorter not 1-2-3-4 last time were 0-64* Horses coming from Grade 1 or Grade 2 Chases last time are 0-28* I would try and avoid a horse with Headgear* Horses with 6 + runs that season look vulnerable* Horses that ran in the Hennessy havent done well* The following is relevant to English Horses only* 14 of the 15 English winners had 2-5 runs that season* English 7 year olds had a 1-37 record* He was a lightly raced winner of a Listed Class handicap* English 8 year olds had a 6-61 record* They were all unexposed with under 21 career starts* They all had 2-3-4-5 runs that year* They were all 1-2-3 last time * None were beaten more than 12 lengths* 5 carried 10st 9lbs or less and the other 11st 2lbs* English 9 year olds had a 1-57 record* He was an unexposed lightweight with Grade 1 form


* English 10 year olds had a 5-50 record* They were best with 10st 10lbs or less and Graded form* Those from at least 3m and 2-3-4 runs that year were 4-12


* You want a horse with at least 7 National Hunt runs* Concentrate on horses with 3-11 Chase starts * The best record comes from those with 5-11 Chase starts* Horses aged 7-8-9-10 with at least 2 runs that season* Avoid horses from 22f or less unless aged 9 + with Grade 1 form* Your horse should be 1-2-3-4 last time out

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Stan James Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy 2m 1/2f

* The Champion hurdle is a Grade 1 race over 2m* The least experienced winners had 2-3-5 runs* One was in a bad year (Sublimity)* Another was a Group 1 Flat horse (Royal Gait)* I would want more runs than either of those* I'd prefer a horse with at least 9 runs over hurdles* 10 of the last 11 winners raced 3-4-5 times that season* Horses aged 6-7-8 are best* There has been 1 winner aged 5 since 1985* Horses aged 5 have a 1-50 record and are disadvantaged* Horses aged 9 can win but score badly* There has only been 3 since 1951* Horses aged 10 or more are automatically ruled out* You must have run in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race* Horse that won last time out are best * 22 of the last 24 were last time out winners* Cheltenham form is a Good Advantage. * 14 of the last 17 winners had ran at Cheltenham before * 11 of the 14 winners to do that won at Cheltenham* You do not want a horse from a Novice or 1st season hurdler* No Northern trained horse has won in 25 years* I would want a run within 60 days like all past winners


* Horses aged 6-7-8 are best* At least 9 runs over Hurdles* Having 3-4-5 races that season* 22 of the last 24 were last time out winners* Running within 60 days



Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 7f

* The Cross Country Chase has 7 past renewals* Ireland have won all 7 of these races* Automatically ignore Horses aged 6 and 7 * They have a terrible record all year round in these races* All 17 horses aged 8 have been beaten too* All 11 horses aged 13 have lost as well* I want a horse thats had cross country experience before* I would want at least two runs this season* The 7 winners were rated 129 140 126 126 150 143 135* None of the winners had any headgear* The 7 winners had the following absence* 33 9 88 36 37 37 29* The last 2 winners came from a Hurdle race* 3 of the last 7 winners prepped over hurdles* The 7 winners had the following runs this season* 3 9 3 3 6 4 4 * The 7 winners had the following Chase starts* 17 48 11 15 14 16 30* The 7 winners had the following Cross Country starts* 4 3 2 5 2 0 2


* You want an Irish horse aged 9-10-11-12* You need Cross Country experience* Avoid all horses with headgear* You need at least two runs this season



David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race 2m

There has only been 4 renewals of this mares hurdle. There are no similar races at any time of year so theonly guide we have is just 4 past renewals.

* The 4 winners were aged were aged 5-5-6-7* The 4 winners had 16 14 11 9 National Hunt runs* The 4 winners had 11 9 5 5 Hurdle runs* The winners had 0 0 1 5 runs this season* The 4 winners had all ran in at least grade 2 before


* Take horses aged 5-6-7 with 5 + hurdle runs* Only consider horses with Grade 1-2 form

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Centenary Novices' Handicap Chase 2m 4 1/2 f

* This is a Novice Handicap Chase over 2m 4f* There have been 7 past renewals of this race* Winners were aged 7 8 5 7 7 7 7* We have yet to have a 6yo winner (0-19)* Horses aged 8 or more have a 1-44 record* 7 winners had 22 11 8 17 16 6 10 National Hunt Starts* The 7 winners had 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts* I would want a horse with between 3 and 6 Chase runs* 7 winners had 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 Handicap Chase runs* The last 6 winners were all handicap debutants* All 7 winners had between 3-6 runs that season* Horses aged 8 or more have a 0-36 record* All 7 winners have run in at least Listed Class before* The 7 winners had the following absence* 37 43 40 40 59 38 34 40 days* All 7 winners were either 1st or 2nd last time out* The highest winning weight was 11st 4lbs * Horses rated 140 or more are 0-25* 6 of 7 winners had between 10st 11lbs and 11st 4lbs* All 7 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out* I wouldnt want a horse with 3 or more Chase wins* All 7 winners had 0-1-2 previous chase wins* 6 of the 7 winners had won over at least 2m 4f before* You want a horse with a hurdle rating of at least 125


* Horses with 4 3 3 4 6 3 5 Chase starts * If thats a 7yo on his handicap debut all the better* Form in Listed or Graded Clas before* 1st or 2nd last time out


C h e l t e n h a m W e d n e s d a y 1.30

National Hunt Steeple Chase Challenge Cup 4m

* This is a 4m Novice Chase for Amateurs* The last 20 winners had the following races that year* 9-4-5-5-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4

* I Would want at least 4 runs that season* Only 1 of the last 20 winners had under 4 runs that year* That was the 1998 winner who was different class* The Past 20 winners had the following National Hunt runs* By that I mean Hurdles Chases and Bumpers* 23 25 5 14 13 15 15 22 28 26 16 14 5 15 13 13 11 14 8 10 7 8 * The Past 20 winners had the following number of Chases * 9 11 3 3 7 4 4 4 4 12 5 1 4 15 9 13 6 10 4 3 3 8 * I would want a horse that mirrored the above* 6 of the last 9 winners had ran 3-4 times over fences * Exposed Horses with 21 + starts won 4 races* All 4 winners came from Novice Chases * No horse had more than 15 Chase starts* Horses aged 5 have not won for 34 years* Horses aged 6 have a weak 1-49 record * Horses aged 7 and 8 have the best record* Horses aged 9 + dont do as well and are 3-99* One of those did not start racing until he was 6 yrs * Another �one (1997) did not start racing until he was 10 * Only 2 horses aged 9 or more with 13 + runs won* They had 9 and 10 races that season* First Season Chasers dominate this race. * 7 of the last 8 winners were in their first season over fences * 2nd season chasers are fine if they have few runs * Horses that ran within 14 days had a weak 1-66 record * 25 of the last 28 winners were 1-2-3-4 last time out * Last years was 5th but that was in a Grade 1 Chase* You want a horse that has ran in Class 3 or better* Those that had not done that were 1-82* 15 of the 18 winners had form in Class 2 or better* Those without Class 2 form and 13 + runs were 0-31* Horses aged 7 without Class 2 form or better were 0-50* All winners since 2000 had ran in Class 2 or better before* Female horses underperformed 1-34* Jonjo O Neill won this in 1995-2002-2003-2004 -2007* JP Mc Manus who 4 races and had 4 placed as well* Horses not 1st or 2nd in any of their last 6 races were 0-34* The better the track a horse is from the better its chance* 14 of the last 17 winners ran within 7 weeks


* You want at least 4 runs that season* I would want between 3 and 13 Chase starts* Avoid horses aged 5 and 6 * First Season Chasers or lightly raced second season chasers win* Go with horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out * You want a horse that has ran in Class 3 or better



Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle 2m 5f

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 2m 5f* Horses aged 5 and 6 dominate this race* They have won the last 12 renewals* They have won 17 of the last 18 renewals * They have won 35 of the last 40 renewals * They've had the 1st and 2nd in each of the last 11 renewals. * The winner should have been 1st or 2nd last time out* 17 of the last 18 winners did that* 28 of the last 29 winners did that* Avoid horses beaten 2+ lengths last time * Avoid horses coming from Novice Hurdles in Class 4 or less* Over 117 have tried and none have won* 6 of the last 7 winners came from Graded Class* 12 of the last 14 winners ran in Grade 1-2 class* I'd prefer to have had at least 3 previous hurdle runs* 21 of the last 26 winners had 3 + hurdle runs* Last years winner did have only two runs though* Two of the last 4 winners did have under 3 hurdle starts* No 5 year old has won this with under 3 runs* National Hunt Breds excel in this rather than Flat Breds* Horses with Bumper form are better than those with Flat Form* 5 English winners came from normal Novice Hurdles* Those without a previous race in Graded class were 1-86* English winners had either 1-2-3 runs or 7 + runs* English horses with 4-5-6 career runs were 0-107* That could be a statistical blip but it's worth considering* English horses without Graded Form were 1-117* 8 of the last 10 were 1st or 2nd in all completed hurdle runs* 10 of the last 11 winners won at least half their hurdle runs* Most past winners had won over 2m 4f or more before* 9 of the last 11 winers had managed that* Almost all past winners had raced in January or Febuary* All of them had raced since December 26th that season* All 4 horses from handicaps lost* The last 4 winners came from 2 mile races* I dont have a problem with any distance last time out


* Only consider Horses aged 5 and 6* Finishing 1st or 2nd last time or beaten under 2 lengths* Avoid horses from Novice Hurdles in Class 4-5-6-7* Look for horses winning at least half their hurdle runs* Your horse must have run since December 26th



RSA Steeple Chase 3m 1/2f

* National Hunt Bred Stayers have the best record* Flat Bred speed horses should be opposed. * None of the last 11 winners ran on the flat* Jumping Ability is important as it is such a gruelling test * The last 10 winners had the following Hurdle + Chase runs* 11 11 12 9 10 10 18 11 9 9 8 9* The last 12 winners had the following Chase starts* 5 5 3 4 4 3 8 5 4 3 5 4* You want around 9-20 runs in all NH starts * All recent winners had at least 3 runs in Chases * I'd want at least 3 or more runs this season * Only 1 of the last 16 winners had under 3 runs that year* That was the Top Class Florida Pearl in 1998* Every winner since 1991 ran within 53 days* Horses aged 7-8 have the best records* 15 of the last 17 winners were aged 7 or 8 * Horses aged 5 can win as long as they pass other stats* I'd oppose them as the weight allowance has been cut* I'd oppose 6 year olds unless there were very good reasons* Only 2 won since 1978 and one came in a small field with fallers* The only 9 year old winners were 1992 - 1986 - 1948* Horses aged 7 have dominated in recent years. * They've won the last 5 and 10 of the last 12 renewals * 8 Year olds are by far the second best age group in this race. * It is important to be 1st or 2nd last time out* 33 of the last 36 winners either won their last race or were 2nd* Handicap Form is respected as a couple have won * I would oppose horses from 2m 4f or shorter* Your horse Must have run over at least 2m5f last time out * No Horse has won this race coming from a Hurdle


* None of the last 10 winners ran on the flat* I'd want between 8 and 18 hurdle and chase runs combined* I'd want 3-8 previous Chase starts but ideally 3-4-5 runs* I'd want at least 3 or more runs this season * Horses aged 7-8 have the best records* Horses aged 7 are best* 1st or 2nd last time out* Coming from 2m 5f or more last time* You want a horse running within 53 days



Sportingbet.com Queen Mother Champion Steeple Chase 2m

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2m* It's very unsual for a big priced shock in this race* Horses aged 7-10 are best* Horses aged 11 and older rarely have the Speed to win. * They did win in 2005 and 1977 but are best opposed* The age of recent winners is as follows* 9-9-6-5-6-8-11-7-9-8-8-9-10-10-7-8-7-8-8-8-9-8-9* In 2008 Master Minded became the first ever 5yo winner* He looks a one off though and that age look vulnerable* There has been two recent 6 year olds win* Master Minded was one and I feel is best seen as a one off* The 2007 winner was 6 but the hot favourite fell that year* The last 6 year old to win before that was in 1973* Horses aged 7-8-9 are more likely to win* Cheltenham Form is important* 20 of the last 26 winners placed at a previous festival* Two that didnt had won quality races here at other times* Another would have placed without a late fall* Coming into the race with a good last run is important* 29 of the last 31 winners were 1-2-3 last time out * The only 2 that were not both fell* Several recent winners had won at further than 2 Miles* I would want a horse rated at least 160* Avoid horses with 5 or more runs that season* The last few winners had the following prep runs* 3-2-4-3-4-4-4-4-1-4-1-4-2-4* Experience is a key factor here* Since 1989 only 1 winner had under 8 Chase starts * That was the 1999 winner who had 4 Chase starts* Recent winners had the following number of Chase starts* 13-12-8-9-8-22-8-11-18-23-4-24-12-11-11-18-14-9-15-14-8. * I'd want a horse that has had at least 8 races over fences * All past winners ran within 95 days


* Horses aged 7-10 are best* 20 of the last 26 winners placed at a previous festival* The last 31 winners were 1-2-3 or Fell last time* Avoid horses with 5 or more runs that season* I would want at least 8 Chase starts



Coral Cup (Handicap Hurdle) 2m 5f

* The Coral Cup is a 2m5f Handicap* Horses aged 5-6-7 have won 11 of the last 12 renewals* Horses aged 8 or more do win but struggled recently* They are 1-93 in the last 11 years* Horses aged 8 or more with 11st 1lbs or more were 0-30* Horses that had 21 or more National Hunt starts do win* The better results come from those with fewer runs* Recent winners had the following number of races* 9-3-9-5-32-8-8-25-5-3-9-16-14* Recent winners had the following number of hurdle runs* 0-9-1-7-5-30-8-8-21-5-0-5-16-14* Recent winners had the following handicap hurdle runs* 1-2-2-19-1-4-15-2-0-0-8-12* You must not have ran 7 or more times that season.* The winner of this is usually invariably laid out for the race. * Most winners had 5 or fewer runs that season * I would prefer horses with 3-5 runs that season* No English horse has won this with just 1 run this season* 33 Female runners produced just 1 third place in 17 years* English horses absent 7 + weeks have a poor record* The only one was a very lightly raced horse* I would reject 7lbs and 5lbs claimers * Be sceptical about horses that finished runner up last time out* Horses that were 2nd last time out had a 0-72 record in this race.* There are sound reasons why this trend has worked * 167 of the 18 winners won at least one of their last 6 races.* 14 of the 18 winners had won that season* I would oppose horses from Novice Handicap Hurdles* I would be wary of betting Novice Hurdlers * Only 1 past winner did that and he had Grade 1 form* Course winners have a 1-80 record in this race* Horses with 11st 1lbs + have won 4 of the last 17 races* They all had under 21 career starts though* The high weighted winners tended to be lighter races * English horses with 11st 1lbs or more are 0-86* Avoid horses rated 129 or lower* The Pierse Hurdle is a good trial* The last 4 winners and 6 of the last 7 won last time out


* Horses with 3-9 National Hunt runs won 9 of the last 11 races* Horses aged 5-6-7 have won 11 of the last 12 renewals* You ideally want 5 or fewer runs that season but no more than 7* I would prefer horses with 3-5 runs that season* English horses absent 7 + weeks have a poor record* 167 of the 18 winners won at least one of their last 6 races.* Be wary of betting Novice Hurdlers without Graded * Dont bet horses with 21 + NH runs and more than 11st* English horses with 11st 1lbs or more are 0-86



Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle 2m 1/2f

* This is a 4 year old Novice Handicap Hurdle* Cheltenham has had only 7 renewals of this race * There's no Listed or Graded races elsewhere in March * The 7 winners had 3-3-3-3-5-3-5 previous hurdle races* None had under 3 career runs* Clearly horses with 3 runs have the best record* The more times over 5 runs the less a horse's chance * English Horses with form in Grade 1 or Grade 2 before are 0-38* Not a safe stat as last years 2nd had that profile* Every past winner ran within 43 days* I'd respect all French Bred horse* 4 of the last 5 winners won last time * Two of these had penalties* The other was beaten in a Grade 2 race (2011)* I'd not bet a horse that dropped in trip from 19f* The 7 winners included 3 female horses* Both ran within 3 weeks and fillies doing that were 3-6* Fillies running within 3 weeks starting under 14/1 are 3-3


* Clearly horses with 3 runs have the best record* I'd not bet a horse that dropped in trip from 19f* Fillies running within 3 weeks starting under 14/1 are 3-3



Weatherbys Champion Bumper (Open NH Flat Race)

* The Champion Bumper is a Grade 1 Flat race* Ireland usually wins this race* They lead 14-5 in the last 19 years * England have won the last two renewals* Willie Mullins won this in 1996 -1997- 1998 - 2000 -2005 - 2008. * English trained 6 year olds have a 0-75 record * All 5 English winners were Male aged 4 or 5 * 4 came from a Grade 1 track last time out. * Horses that won last time out have dominated this race. * They have won the last 8 renewals* They have been responsible for 17 of the last 19 winners. * I'd oppose horses that ran within the previous fortnight* The last 8 winners of this race had 2-1-3-1-3-4-3-3-4 previous races * 6 of the last 9 winners had at least 3 Bumper races* Horses aged 4 have the weakest strike rate * They are just 3-79 in the last 16 years* The vast majority of winners were Irish bred horses. * Big Field Form looks quite important. * The last 15 winners had won in fields of the following* 16-13-14-21-16-24-15-27-28-24-17-19-20-22-17 runners. * You want a horse trained to peak that day* Not one already tested against the best* Stay with a professional jockey * Dont worry at all about long absences* Horses without a run that callender year are fine


* Horses aged 4 have the weakest strike rate * English trained 6 year olds have a 0-75 record * Horses that won last time out have dominated this race. * The last 15 winners won in fields of at least 13 runners


C h e l t e n h a m T h u r s d a y 1.30

Jewson Novices' Steeple Chase 2m 5f

* This race only has a 1 year history* It's only the 2nd ever Graded Chase in March over 2m 4f

Last years winner was an Irish trained 7 year old. He had 3Novice Chase starts the last two in Grade 1 races. He camesecond last time 53 days ago in that Grade 1 Novice Chase.He had 11 previous hurdle runs including at the Cheltenhamfestival before. He came there as a 146 rated Chaser from the Leopardstown Arkle Novice Chase over 2m 1f. Not alot more I can say about the only race run like it so far.



Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) 3m

* This is a 3m Handicap Hurdle * The Distance Changed in 2005 from 3m 1f 110yds to 3m* The last 19 winners had the following profile* The last 19 winners had the following National Hunt runs* 40 31 9 11 37 9 40 7 11 15 8 20 21 20 6 14 20 21 9* The last 19 winners had the following runs in Handicaps* 21-13 2 4 18 2 32 2 2 12 4 2 5 13 2 8 6 7 2 * The last 19 winners had the following runs in Hurdle races* 29-22 9 9 25 6 25 7 9 15 9 7 11 20 5 14 77 13 8* The last 19 winners had the following runs in Chase races* 6 5 0 0 13 0 15 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 3 6* Exposed horses with 21 + runs have now won 4 of the last 7 * I'd still be interested in the unexposed horses* Horses with between 6 - 20 runs have won many renewals* 13 of the last 19 winners had ran in fewer than 9 handicaps. * The Winners in these years had just 2 handicap hurdle runs* 2009- 2005 -2003 -2002 - 1998 -1995 -1991 * Strongly consider runners with 2-8 handicap hurdle runs* Strongly consider runners with 2 handicap hurdle runs.* The least experienced hurdler had 5 runs (1995) * I looked at how many runs this season a horse had* The last few winners had 6 4 7 5 3 5 7 5 1 3 7 4 runs* I would want 4 or more runs this year unless lightly raced* 9 of the last 12 winners had 4 + runs this year* The 3 that did not all had 11 or fewer National Hunt runs* Therefore insist of 4 + runs unless they have under 11 runs* English horses with 1-2 runs that season have a 1-61 record* I would avoid 5 Year olds* All 41 Horses aged 5 lost in this race since 1991. * Only one 5 year old won in the 37 year history of this race.* Horses aged 6-7-8-9 are best* Before last year all 46 horses aged 10 or more lost * Last year there was a 10yo winner who also won it as a 9yo* I would still be sceptical about horses aged 10 +* Horses that ran within 15 days have a 0-39 record* English 6 year olds won 4 renewals* They were all 1-2-3 last time and had 11st 2lbs or less* They were all unexposed males with 7-20 runs* English 7 year olds won 3 renewals* They all had 5-12 career starts* They all had 3 + runs that season* They all won last time within 7 weeks* English 8 year olds won 2 renewals* Both were lightly raced with 3-4 runs that year* Both had 10st 10lbs or less* English 9 year olds won 4 renewals* They had 3 + runs this year and no more than 11st 2lbs* Female horses are 1-32 in this race * Not important to be 1-2-3-4 last time* Several winners came nowhere on their previous start. * 13 English winners include 9 last time out winners* The worst record is horses that came 2nd last time out.* English horses 2nd last time were 0-54* English horses 2nd-3rd-4th last time out struggled* Since 1992 they had a poor 1-130 record * Course winners had a 1-77 record


* Horses that were out of the handicap have a 1-83 record.* Several winners were bred by Classiclly bred Flat sires* English horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 1-58* There were 3 winners with 11st 3lbs or more since 1992* They all came from Listed or Graded Handicaps* They were all lightly raced and aged 7 - 7 - 9 * 13 of the last 17 winners had won over at least 3 miles* All recent winners ran within 61 days


* I'd want 4 + runs this season unless they have under 11 runs * I would avoid 5 Year olds* Horses aged 6-7-8-9 are best* English horses 2nd-3rd-4th last time out should be opposed* All recent winners ran within 61 days

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Ryanair Chase 2m 5f

* This is a Grade 1 Chase over 2m 5f* There are only 7 renewals of this race* It replaced the old Cathcart Chase * That was restricted to novices and second season chasers* I would want at least 5 chase starts* The 7 winners had 22-17-5-17-7-27-11 chase starts* All 7 winners has between 2-3-4 runs that season* They were aged 10-9-6-8-9-10-10 * I would prefer older horses given the choice* 6 of the 7 winners had Grade 1 form* None were absent more than 76 days* There were 5 past winners running well last time* They finsihed with 12 lengths of the winner last time* There were 2 winners beaten much further last time* Both of these were beaten miles in the King George* Dont rule out horses from Kemptons King George* The race was upgraded to Grade 1 in 2008* All 4 winners since than had ran in the King George* Every winner started 14/1 or shorter* Running well in their Penultimate race is a good sign* All 7 winners came from a Graded race * No past winner came from a Novice race* They all had between 5 and 11 career wins* Irish horses have a 0-15 record* All 7 winners were course winners (Others 0-23)* So were 6 runner ups and the other was festival placed* The lowest rated winner was 152


* I would want at least 5 chase starts* All 7 winners has between 2-3-4 runs that season* All 7 winners came from a Graded race * Dont rule out horses from Kemptons King George



Ladbrokes World Hurdle 3m

* This is a Grade 1 hurdle over 3 miles* All past winners in recent years were unexposed* They all had under 21 career runs in hurdles + bumpers* Thats ignoring French Form * Inglis Drever won this on his 20th start* Big Bucks won this on his 10th 14th and 18th race* This year will be his 23rd race and he will fail that stat* If I oppose him it will down to the price and not that stat* Exposed horses were 0-50 since 1992* All winners had ran at least 6 times before over Hurdles. * Bacchanal (2000) won this with 6 previous races * Horses with 6 + races this season were 0-30* They struggled in all Championship races at the Festival* Horses with 2-3-4 runs this season had the best record* This race has never been won by a 5 year old before. * 5 year olds have a 0-19 record in this race since 1992* Horses aged 9 or more have a 1-59 record since 1992* That was Inglis Drever who has twice won the race* The last Horse to win from this age group was 1988. * I certainly couldnt bet horses aged 10 or more. * None that age won a Championship Hurdle since 1986 * The last 12 winners were 1st or 2nd last time* 16 of the 18 winners were 1st 2nd or 3rd last time* The last 23 winners were all 1-2-3-4 last time out* All 16 horses that came from a Novice race lost * The last 19 winners of this race all ran in a Grade 1 before* You need a horse that had placed 1-2-3-4-5 in a Grade 1* The last 19 winners had all achieved that before* Only 2 winners came from 2m 4f or shorter* They were both 6 year olds that had Grade 1 form* They both had 9-12 starts and 3-4 runs that season* They both came from Grade 2 Hurdles in the past month


* All winners ran at least 6 times before over Hurdles.* I would want under 6 runs this season* This race has never been won by a 5 year old before.* Horses aged 10 or more should be opposed* The last 12 winners were 1st or 2nd last time* Avoid horses from 20f or shorter unless matching my stats



Byrne Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase 2m 5f

* This is a Handicap Chase over 2m 4f 110yds* It was Formerly known as the Mildmay of Flete* This is a race where shocks are common* Only 1 favourite has won this race in 28 years * The last 11 winners had the following SP's* 25/1 18/1 33/1 66/1 12/1 14/1 25/1 12/1 16/1 25/1* England has dominated this race winning every renewal* The last Irish winners were 1982 and 1951* All 37 Irish horses were beaten in this race since 1992* 17 of the last 18 winners were placed 1-2-3-4-5 last time* 16 of the last 18 winners has at least 3 runs that season* The 2 winners that didnt have that were aged 9 and 10* Both had Grade 1 form in the past and were exposed* Both had 10st 9lbs as well* The 1995-1998-2004-2010 winners came from a Novice Chase* They all had 11st or less and* 3 were 1st or 2nd last time the other was 4th* Dont rule out horses having their 1st season in Chases * Majadou (1999) was a 1st season Novice with 4 Chase runs* Kadi (1995) was a 1st season chaser with 7 Chase runs* Great Endeavour (2010) also did it with 3 Chase runs* 16 of the last 18 winners had 13 + runs over hurdles/fences* The first 4 in 2011 had 19 , 22 , 4 and 20 Career starts * The first 4 in 2010 had 8 , 13 , 22 and 79 Career starts * The first 4 in 2009 had 16 , 12 , 15 and 28 Career starts* The first 4 in 2008 had 60, 5, 23 and 9 Career starts * The first 4 in 2007 had 18 , 16 , 25 and 29 Career starts * The first 4 in 2006 had 22 , 26 , 13 and 14 Career starts * The first 4 in 2005 had 13 , 39 , 28 and 10 Career starts * The first 4 in 2004 had 25 , 19 , 23 and 15 Career starts * The first 4 in 2003 had 25 , 18 , 18 and 38 Career starts * The first 4 in 2002 had 28 , 23 , 29 and 17 Career starts * The first 4 in 2000 had 19 , 19 , 19 and 25 Career starts * 12 of the last 13 winners had no more than 16 Chase stars* Avoid horses running within 15 days unless from Cheltenham* Only the 66/1 winner in 2008 has done that* 15 of the 18 winners won with an absence of 16-47 days.* There were 3 winners from Listed or Graded races* They had 3-6-7 runs that season* They were aged 6-11-11 * They all ran in the last Month and had 11st 7lbs or less* Horses that carried 11st 8lbs or more are 0-40* 22 of the 24 winners were rated no higher than 141* 15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less* French Breds won 6 of the last 13 renewals* 18 of the last 20 winners had ran at the festival before* Recent results show any age can win this race * Recent winners have been aged 10-6-8-11-8-8-6-7-10-9-9-5 * Paul Nicholls has a 0-21 record in the race* No past winner came from hurdles (0-18)* Avoid horses that ran in the Paddy Power Gold cup* Avoid horses that ran in the Boylesports Gold cup* Horses from 18f or shorter won just 2 races* 7 year olds have the weakest record* Horses aged 7 have a 1-42 record since 1992* That sole winner had just 10st and had Grade 1 form


* Horses aged 8 won 4 renewals* None won absent 7 or more weeks (0-24)* They all came from Class 2-Class 3 handicap chases* They all had 11st 3lbs or less * They all had 3 + runs that season


* Expect an English winner at a big price* 17 of the last 18 winners were placed 1-2-3-4-5 last time* 16 of the last 18 winners has at least 3 runs that season* 16 of the last 18 winners had 13 + runs over hurdles/fences* Horses that carried 11st 8lbs or more are 0-40* 15 of the last 18 winners carried 11st or less* 18 of the last 20 winners had ran at the festival before* 7 year olds have the weakest record



Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Steeple Chase 3m 1 1/2f

* The Kim Muir is a 25f Handicap Chase for Amateurs* English horses dominate winning the last 28 renewals* Irish horses are 0-38 in recent years* I looked at exposed horses in this race and found 6 winners* I categorise these as 21 or more National Hunt starts* All exposed winners of this had at least 4 runs that season* Those with 1-2-3 runs that year were 0-56* Those that were 1-2-3-4 last time were just 1-69* Exposed horses from 3m or shorter last time struggled* No exposed horse won carrying more than 11st * Horses aged 7-8-9-10 have won the last 18 renewals* The last 6 year old winner was in 1971* Horses aged 6 in the race are 0-19 since 1993 * Only 4 of the last 31 winners were aged 7 or less* Horses aged 7 won two renewals since 1993* Both had 5 + runs that season and ran within a month* Both 7yo winners came down in trip from 26f or more* Both 7yo winners had 10st 11lbs or less * No horse aged 10 or more had under 4 runs that season* Older horses aged 11 or more are 0-62* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled* They had a poor 1-77 record in recent years* Female Horses have a 0-25 record in recent years* Avoid Horses from a Novice race * All 42 that tried failed in recent years* Many "Lightweights" and "Highweights" have won* Horses with 11st 8lbs or more were 3-49* All 3 were unexposed with 4-5 runs that season* The previous winners had the following Chase runs* 6-10-10-7-5-18-2-19-22-5-4-11-20-10-18-8-13-9-11* The winner with 2 Chase runs had more in France* Several winners had 5-13 Chase runs* I'd be interested in these types if strong elsewhere* Stay with the best jockeys here* 6 of the last 7 winners had no claim* Course winners have a weak 1-91 record in 16 years


* Exposed horses need 4 + runs that season* Horses aged 7-8-9-10 have won the last 18 renewals* Horses coming from 2m 6f or shorter struggled* Avoid Horses from a Novice race * Several winners had 5-13 Chase runs


C h e l t e n h a m F r i d a y 1.30

JCB Triumph Hurdle 2m 1f

* The Triumph Hurdle is for 4 year olds over 17f* English Horses have won the last 9 renewals* I would avoid horses with 1 career start unless a Graded race* The 2011 winner had 1 run but it was in a Grade 2 hurdle* The 2010 winner had 1 run but it was in a Grade 2 hurdle* Without Graded form ignore once raced horses* Horses that had 7 + previous races had a 0-32 record. * Strongly consider horses with 1-2 runs and Graded form * Flat Bred runners seem to have the advantage. * 16 of the last 17 winners were Flat Bred * Look for a Flat Bred horse that stayed 12f on the flat* The last 13 winners that ran on the flat had 12f form* Horses that ran within 2 weeks were 0-49* The last 20 winners all ran after January 17th that year* The last 11 winners all ran within 55 days* The Adonis Hurdle winner has won this 6 times recently* Fillies won 3 renewals in 1993, 1994 and 2000* All 3 fillies won last time out within the past month* Horses that won their last race won 13 of the last 14* You must have a horse 1st or 2nd last time* Those that were not had a 0-158 record* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85* Only Katchit won from 17f and he won a Champion Hurdle* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost* Horses coming from Class 5 or lower struggled* Those that had 3 or more runs doing that were 0-50* All 42 horses that came from a Class 2 Hurdle lost* All 86 maidens lost* 14 of the last 17 winners had won twice that season* Colts dont have a great record compared to Geldings* Horses beaten 8 + lengths last time were 0-139


* 16 of the last 17 winners were Flat Bred * Horses that won their last race won 13 of the last 14* Horses that had 7 + previous races struggled* Strongly consider horses with 1-2 runs and Graded form * The last 20 winners all ran after January 17th that year* Horses that ran over 17f or more last time were 1-85* All 28 horses that came from Handicaps Lost



Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle 2m 1f

* The County Hurdle is a Handicap over 17f* Seasonal debutants have not won this race* Horses with 1 race that season were 0-44* You want a horse with at least 3 runs that season* Over 100 horses had under 3 runs and only 1 won* That was last year with 2 runs but he also had a flat run* He was also lightly raced as well* 16 of the last 17 winners had at least 3 runs that season* Most of these had 4 and more runs* The last 18 winners had these runs since September* 2 3 4 6 4 7 7 3 5 5 5 4 6 5 7 7 5 5 3 4* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season* The last 18 winners had this number of hurdle runs* 4 14 4 10 7 8 16 7 17 21 8 5 6 26 12 21 25 10 10 17* 5 of the last 8 winners had under 9 Hurdle runs* You want a Horse that ran within the last 68 days. * Only Sir Talbot (1999) won with a longer absence* The last 17 winners were absence this many days* 68 55 27 14 34 13 36 32 33 33 13 98 17 44 3 28 16 29 21 52* All 57 horses that came from a Grade 1 or Grade 2 Lost* Last time out finishing position doesnt matter much* Horses aged 5 or 6 have the best record* 5 and 6 year olds won 40 of the last 50 renewals * Horses aged 5 have won 5 of the last 8 renewals* No horse aged 10 or older have won since 1959* English horses aged 7 or more were 3-159* Those with 1-2-3-4 runs that season were 0-97* I wouldnt bet a horse aged 7 or more with under 5 runs* 17 of the last 19 winners ran in at least 2 handicaps before* Both high and low weighted winners have won* I'd oppose the very high weighted horses* Horses with 11st 10lbs or more are 0-19 * The Betfair Hurdle or MCR hurdle are strong trials


* You want a horse with 3-7 runs this season* You want a Horse that ran within the last 68 days. * 5 and 6 year olds won 40 of the last 50 renewals



Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle 3m

* This is a Grade 1 Novice Hurdle over 3 Miles* There are just 7 renewals of this race* The 5 winners were aged 6-7-6-7-6-7-5* Horses aged 8 or more are 0-14* I would prefer horses aged 6 or 7* The 7 winners were 1 4 2 2 1 1 2 on their previous starts* The 6 winners had 5-15-6-8-8-5-4 hurdle and bumper runs* They had the following number of hurdle starts* 3 13 4 3 4 3 4 * I would ideally want 3 or 4 hurdle runs but at least 3 * The 7 winners had been absent this following days* 48 33 47 61 48 97 27* All 7 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time* 3 of the 7 winners won a Cheltenham Grade 2 last time* 5 of the 7 winners had ran at the distance before* 6 of the 7 winners had ran at the track before* The 7 winners had 3-9-4-3-4-3-5 runs that season


* Horses with 3 or 4 hurdle starts are interesting* You want a horse aged 5-6-7 who ran well last time* All 7 winners came from a Grade 2 Hurdle last time* 6 of the 7 winners had ran at the track before* Every winner had at least 3 runs this season



Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Gold Cup is a Grade 1 Chase over 3m 2f110y * 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts* The exception was Kauto Star with 20 Chases in 2009* The last 16 winners ran in the following number of chases* 5 9 20 8 10 11 12 9 6 10 13 12 7 10 11 11 * Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled* Ignoring French runs they had a 0-85 record* You are best with an improving lightly raced horse* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record. * They've won 16 of the last 18 Cheltenham Gold Cups. * Horses aged 10 do not have a great record * Horses aged 10 have a 1-90 record since 1992* Horses aged 11 and over haven't won since 1969* All 36 that ran in the last 18 years lost.* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season.* I wouldnt want a horse with fewer runs that season* Horses absent more than 10 weeks are fine* Previous track form is a serious advantage in this race.* This advantage is increased if horse had Festival form. * 12 of the last 14 winners placed at a previous Festival.* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out* The only exception was last years winner 5th in a Grade 1* Every winner had won in one of their last 6 races.* A rating of around 166 is needed to win this race* Horses from a Grade 1 - Grade 2 chase last time are best* Horses that placed or won a Grade 1/Grade 2 were best* Every winner since 1992 had managed that* A Novice hasnt won the Gold Cup since 1974* Two recent winners came from Handicaps* Both those winners had Grade 1 Form before* No winners since 1979 had ran on the Flat


* 15 of the last 16 winners had 5-14 previous Chase starts* Exposed horses with 21 + runs in England struggled* Horses aged between 7 and 9 have the best record* Every recent winner had 2-5 runs that season* Almost all past winners placed or fell last time out



Christie's Foxhunter Steeple Chase 3m 2 1/2f

* The Foxhunters is a Hunter Chase* Foxhunters Chase and England lead 15-3 since 1992* Horses aged 11 or more were 2-138 both winners a shock* Its a race more often than not gone to younger horses. * You can't rule out any age as a 13yo won in 2004* 6 recent winners ran within the last 15 days * Two of these won at Newbury and 4 at Warwick.* Anything that wins very recently is significant* I would either want a long absence or very short one* We haven't yet had a female winner of this race * The last 14 winners had the following finishing positions* W W W W L UR W 2 W 3 W W W W W * The majority have won their latest starts * Or they would have probably won when falling * 20 of the last 24 winners won on their previous start * Horses that came from a Handicap Chase are 1-37* 20 of the last 22 were brought up via Hunters or Points * All 25 horses from a �Novice� or �Maiden� Hunter Chase Lost* 38 horses lined up having previously ran in a Grade 1 race.* None of the 38 won this race* Its better to bet a horse that has run under rules before* Horses from 2m 4f or shorter struggled before last year* Last years winner did that so a watching brief advised* The Irish Racing Post Champion Hunters Chase is a hot trial* Run last May at Punchestown a run there is significant


* Avoid horses aged 11 or more* 20 of the last 24 winners won on their previous start* Avoid horses from Handicaps* 20 of the last 22 were brought up via Hunters or Points * All 25 horses from a �Novice� or �Maiden� Hunter Chase Lost* Avoid all horses that have Grade 1 form before



Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle 2m 4 1/2f

* No strong Statistics with just 3 past renewals* The 3 winners were aged 5-6-6* They all had 11st 2lbs and more* They were all second season hurdlers* They all raced since January 25th that season* Two had 9-11 runs over Bumpers-Hurdles-Fences* The other winner had just 1 run outside France * Two winners had ran over fences before* Two winners had ran 7-8 times over hurdles before* The other had just 1 previous race * Two winners had placed at Cheltenham before* The 3 winners had 1 4 4 runs that season


None



Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeple Chase 2m 1/2f

* The Grand Annual is a 2m Handicap Chase * Last years renewal looked a poor quality race* That may be best seen in isolation* Recent winners had the following Chase runs* 20 7 6 13 11 5 7 10 4 11 3 6 5 39 26* Horses with 3-13 Chase starts won 12 of the last 13* Recent winners had the following Hurdle runs* 10 30 7 12 3 12 11 6 1 11 7 25 2 8 14* Recent winners had the follwing Chase-Hurdle runs* 30 37 13 25 14 17 18 16 5 22 10 30 7 47 40* Lightly raced Chasers were best since 1997* Thats allowing for last years 40/1 winner who was not* The last 13 winners had these Handicap Chase runs* 16 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 0 4 0 0 5* 5 of the last 13 winners had never ran in Handicap Chase * Another two had only ran in 1 Handicap Chase. * Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs* The last 13 winners had these Novice Chase runs* 0 6 6 8 4 4 6 7 4 7 3 6 7 Novice Chase runs* Strongly consider horses with 3-8 Novice Chases runs* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less. * I count last years winner (11st 6lbs) as 10st 13lbs * Thats because he was ridden by a 7lbs Claimer* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998 * Horses with 11st 3lbs or more were 2-62* One was exceptional winning many Grade 1 races* The last 13 winners were aged 9 7 6 10 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6 * Horses aged 10 or more won 3 renewals since 1991* None of these came from 2m chases (0-36)* Only 1 winner aged 10 or more was exposed (1-39)* They all had form in Graded races* Only 1 of the last 17 winners had just 1 run that season* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best* The 2010 winner had 7 runs that year but thats unusual* English horses absent 7 weeks or more were 0-69* All winners bar Fota Island in 2005 ran within 7 weeks* 19 of the last 20 winners ran in Febuary or March* That stat may be vulnerable with the Freeze in Febuary* All 37 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer lost* 17 of the last 18 winners had ran in Graded Class before* The one that didnt spent most time Racing in France * Horses winning 8 or more races have a 0-62 record * Unless Falling you want a 1-2-3-4 position last time out* 36 of the last 41 winners placed in their previous chase* A horse that placed or fell on their penultimate run helps* Past winners had the following places in their last Chase* 3-5-2-3-3-5-2-F-W-W-W-3-W-4-2


* Horses with 3-13 Chase starts won 12 of the last 13* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs* The race is dominated by horses that carried 11st or less* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best* Avoid English horses absent 7 weeks or more


* Avoid horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer* 17 of the last 18 winners had ran in Graded Class before * 36 of the last 41 winners placed in their previous chase

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Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Cheltenham Statisticsletscomparebets.com/mathematician_cheltenham_stats.pdf · Mathematician-Betting.co.uk Cheltenham Statistics ... * That included last