Neo@Ogilvy

Measuring Performance in

Advertising Effectiveness

Jorge Ruiz

Good Attribution helps fuel Performance

• Clients need assurances that our advertising performance is attributable…• …yet “attribution” means many things to different people

Digital Attribution

Cross-Channel Attribution

• For how many days can I take credit for view-based conversions?

• Should I keep investing in placements that don’t drive a lot of immediate conversions?

• Which channels within my campaign drive the best Brand Awareness / Intent lifts?

• What is my optimal channel mix through to sales?

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Cross-Channel

Digital

Implement at Launch… …Roadmap when scale and budget affords

How we drive Performance through Attribution

Display View-through Test

Display Brand & Behavior Lifts

Advanced Attribution (Algorithmic)

Ad-Exposure Cross-Media Research Dynamic Mix Modeling

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Client needs will drive where and how you start. Here is our approach:

Let’s start with Digital Attribution

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You have to start by asking: “Whither the click?”

• Ample evidence that the View-Thru effect is incremental

Neo@Ogilvy Display View-thru NormsCategory Pct Lift Optimal Window

Credit Cards +12% First 12 hours

Consumer Electronics +11% Same DayInsurance – Personal +54% 1 dayTravel +42% 3 days

Trading – Options +35% 7 days

Trading – Stock +28% 10 days

Insurance - Auto +74% 15 days

Industry POV

"The comScore norms data provide compelling empirical support for the belief that there is a quantifiable view-thru impact of online ad exposures on brand value and sales. For the studies in which both retailers' online and offline sales were analyzed, for periods ranging from two weeks to three months after the initial exposure to an online display ad, the incremental online sales lift was 27 percent and offline sales lift was 17 percent. “ *

* http://www.comscore.com/Press_Events/Press_Releases/2008/11/Value_of_Online_Advertising

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Where possible, implement behavioral lift tests

• You can do this with any Ad-Server Audience segmentation or through a cookie-panel research partner

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vs. non-converters with same media placementsvs. mice that did not survive with same treatment

To do Digital Attribution right you have to use a model with a ‘hold-out’ group

Measure the attributable survival rate of a lab mice exposed to multiple protein sequences

Measure the attributable conversion rate of a consumer exposed to multiple media placements

Attribution for Medical Researchers Attribution for Marketing Researchers

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Cookie ID: 1234Session ID: 5678

• This is why an ‘Algorithmic’ approach should be a standard

ConvertersNon-Converters

Incremental probability of true conversion ‘weight’

Good attribution models fuel Performance

• Here is how we found ‘growth’ placements, minimized low-performers

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Conv

ersio

ns A

ttrib

uted

Ad ID Rank (by LT Attribution)

Banner Attribution by Ad ID

Model Attribution

LT Attribution

-30.0%

-20.0%

-10.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

Campaign Placements (Ranked by # of Conversions)

…then help me predict Search opportunity

Old Rank: placements by # ‘Last-Touch’ conversions

New Rank: placements by # ‘Attributable’ conversions

First, help me attribute Digital placements…

# Co

nver

sions Travel Endemic

Abandoners

Each dot in this chart is a Placement from Model 1

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Going Beyond Digital into Cross-Channel

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A few Cross-Channel Effectiveness Methods

Cross-Media Ad Effectiveness Studies• Typical output of cross-media work is to show what

combination of media exposure can yield the biggest brand & Sales lifts

• An advantage is that it can go live with a new campaign and scale up /down over time

Econometric Mix Models• Mix Models are more useful for the broader, long-

term measurement of how spend over time influences activity

• An advantage is that it can account for external business factors and allow for solid financial simulations

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For measuring brand campaigns, cross-media can leverage latest research innovations• For example, when running campaigns with Brand Awareness/Intent goals, cross-media

results can tell you the right channel mix, but not always its total impact to sales

Known Impact Modeled Impact

1 Channel2 Channel Combo3 Channel Combo

Total Impact (Campaign Incremental)

Awareness

Favor.

P.I.

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Paid/Owned/Earned? Latest Mix models can take into account the indirect effect

• Old Models: linear solution New Models: Account for indirect consumer behavior

Paid Media

‘love’

New market mix models can better account for all the non-linear interactions…

…and help break down the optimal effective contribution to a business goal

* Beyond Fans and Tweets: Measuring the Impact of Social Media,The Stern Center for Measurable Marketing, NYU, Oct 2011 12

2 other things to consider to drive Performance

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Personalization via Social CRM

• We’re already seeing success with this kind of tactic

• But a simple CRM upload is not enough– Creative– Context– Call-to-Action / Offer

http://techcrunch.com/2012/10/11/facebook-custom-audience-ads/ 14

Personalization via Revenue Management

• The best personalization is often the one under the hood and is purely focused on revenue management

http://aws.amazon.com/solutions/case-studies/ticketmaster/ 15

In summary…

1. Define what is attribution to you

2. Plan to socialize your projects as a ‘framework’ to solve one step at a time

3. Know your audience and the breadth/depth (macro/micro) of the analysis needed

4. To measure offline and online together as ‘cross-channel’ toward predicting key business goals, two research methods continue to be the most utilized: Mix models or Cross-Media Surveys

5. When thinking of personalization beyond site engagement, SocialCRM or Revenue Management solutions are two areas with big opportunity

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Neo@Ogilvy

Thank You.

To learn more, contact me:

Jorge.Ruiz@ogilvy.com@jorgeruiztweets