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1© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.
Program ManagementBlack Belt Training
Module #2
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Project Management TheoryProject Value
Rolled Throughput YieldCost of Poor Quality
Instructor:Brian Edelman
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Philosophy
• Stop me immediately when a concept is unclear — odds are,
if you are confused about something, at least one other
person in the room is also.
• I will either:
– Try to rephrase/clarify the point
– Ask you to hold on for a few moments until we get to a
downstream slide
– Defer it to 1:1 discussion.
• Dual purposes of the material: – Knowledge to do projects.
– Knowledge to pass certification exam.
• Zip the Monkey.
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Project Management Theory
• Purpose
• Deliverables
– Problem Statement
• Objectives• Cost/Benefit Analysis
• Team Makeup
• Process Owner/Process Sponsor
– Project Closure
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Project Management Theory Agenda(cont.)
• Tools
– Timing
• Critical Path Method
• PERT
• Compression
– Crashing
– Fast Tracking
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Purpose—Why ProjectManagement?
• To establish the boundaries, or ‗scope‘, of the
project.
• To determine what the goals of the project are.
• To identify and obtain commitment for theresources necessary for project completion.
• To complete the project in the most efficient and
timely manner possible.
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Deliverables
• Problem Statement — A single paragraph that
captures the ‗pain‘ the organization feels from the
problem and what the Six Sigma project will do to
improve it.• Objective — This lists the primary metric and the
degree to which the project will improve the
metric. As a baseline, improvement is typically
targeted at 70% improvement from current status.After the completion of the Define phase, this is
the ‗contract‘ for successful project completion.
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Deliverables (continued)
• Benefits — This item is not the primary metric and
goal of the project , but instead is a listing of the
benefits that will accrue from achieving the goal.
– Financial Impacts — What is the bottom lineimprovement to the organization?
– Others — May include floor space, goodwill, TGW
reductions, or other ‗soft‘ savings.
– Memo: Hard savings are generally things that will ‗hitthe bottom line.‘ As a rule of thumb they can be
entered into the Cost Savings System (CSS). Soft
savings are those things that may enable savings later
but do not immediately affect the bottom line.
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Deliverables (continued)
• Team — To successfully complete the Define
phase of a Six Sigma project requires that a
preliminary team be identified. This team must
include a representative from the local controller‘soffice, as well as all key stakeholders in the
process.
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Deliverables (continued)
• Process Sponsor/Process Owner — The manager
who will ‗own‘ the process once the project is
complete. He/she is responsible for making sure
Visteon ‗sustains the gain‘ from the Six Sigma project once the project team completes its work.
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Problem Statement
• A well-crafted problem statement is key to
successful project completion. It must align with
the project objectives and metrics.
• Example: – Problem Statement: Defects on Line 1 have averaged
121,000 ppm for the last four months. This does not
allow us to meet our corporate cost and quality
objectives – Objective: Reduce ppm on Line 1 from an average of
121,000 ppm to 50,000 ppm by July 1, 2002.
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Project Closure
• The project can be closed when it is verified that thegoals/objectives for the project have been achieved.
• The most recent closure procedures are available on theSix Sigma website. (Home page:
http://hub.visteon.com/6sigma/)• Project closure requires approval of the Black Belt, the
Project Champion, the responsible FinanceAnalyst/Controller, and the divisional DeploymentDirector.
• Certification requires two successfully closed projects,demonstrated competency in a statistical proficiencyexamination, and recommendation of the divisionalDeployment Director.
http://hub.visteon.com/6sigma/http://hub.visteon.com/6sigma/
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Project Management Tools
• ―Project Management‖ generally refers to all
aspects of the project: timing, cost, quality,
resource availability, etc.
• For purposes of this section, we will focus on project time management.
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Project Scheduling
• Once a project scope has been established, a
schedule of work can be developed.
• Typically, a series of tasks is identified, along with
the precedence relationships, constraints, and whois responsible
• This list of tasks needed to accomplish the project
is sometimes called the Work Breakdown
Structure (WBS).
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Project Scheduling (cont.)
• A ‗task‘ is any activity with an identifiable
beginning and end.
– Ex: Purchase prototype tool
– Ex: Run DOE• Precedence relationships define how tasks relate to
one another.
– Ex: Cannot PSW a part until a drawing for it is
released.
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Example WBS and Gantt ChartMonth 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4
w1 w2 w3 w4 w1 w2 w3 w4 w1 w2 w3 w4 w1 w2 w3
14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun 25-Jun 2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27
Project Selection Form (from Project Champion)
Define
Develop Project Statement
Identify Customer
Identify CTQ's
Develop Y/X Diagram
Map the Process
Develop Fishbone Diagram
Develop Cause & Effect Matrix
Perform or Review FMEA
Confirm Project Scope & Goal
Refine Problem Statement
Measure
Develop Data Collection Plan
Perform Measurement System Analysis
Operational Definitions
Gage R&R
Conduct Data Collection
Perform Graphical Analysis
Pareto Chart
Run ChartHistogram
Box Plot
Scatter Plot
Conduct Baseline Capability Analysis
Cp /CPk
Rolled Throughput Yield
DPMO
Sigma Level
Determine Cost of Poor Quality
Confirm Project Scope & Goal
Analyze
Confirm Data Type - Attribute or Variable
Attribute Data Analysis
1 Proportion
2 Proportion
Chi- Square
Variable Data Analysis
Analysis of Variation
F-Test
ANOVA
Analysis of Means
1- Sample Test
2- Sample Test
ANOVA for Means
Correlation Regression
Improve
Brainstorm Alternatives
Conduct Design Of Experiments
Create "should be" Process Map
Conduct FMEA
Perform Cost / Benefit Analysis
Conduct Pilot
Validate Improvement
Control
Mistake Proofing
Long Term Measurement System Analysis Plan
Develop Statistical Process Control Chart
Develop Preventative Maintenance Plan
Develop Reaction Plan
Updated Standard Operating ProceduresCongratulate the team
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Project Scheduling (cont.)
• Precedence relationships are generally, but notalways, finish-to-start relationships:
– Finish-to-start: Cannot begin the next task until the
preceding one is finished.
– Start-to-start: Cannot start the next task until the preceding one starts.
– Finish-to-finish: Cannot finish the next task until the
preceding one finishesGantt Chart
from MS
Project
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Project Scheduling (cont.)
• Constraints can tie activities to specific dates.
– Ex: Must do equipment installation during contractual
shutdown.
– Ex: Must file legal documents on/by specific dates.
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Project Scheduling (cont.)
• Analysis Tools — the most common general means
of analyzing schedules include:
– Critical Path Method
– Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) – Memo: As an aside, CPM uses node-based information
(duration), where PERT uses information on the links.
From a practical matter, this makes little difference, and
for the rest of this presentation, we will use node-based
information, similar to Microsoft Project conventions.
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Critical Path Method (cont.)
Tasks with zero float are on a critical path.
• Float greater than zero is an indication of how
much this task can slip from its earliest date before
it also becomes critical path.• Having multiple critical paths is very bad — any
slippage of any activity on any of the critical paths
will delay the project completion. Or, in other
words, Murphy has more places to strike.
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Critical Path Method
• This technique, by identifying the critical path(s),
emphasizes which tasks will affect overall
execution time of the project if they slip (or finish
early).• This technique also allows tracking of progress
versus a baseline to determine if the overall
project is on track.
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Critical Path Method Example
• A recruiting event is planned at a university.
• To be successful, it is necessary to do thefollowing: – Reserve the facility — 6 weeks
– Obtain brochures and other giveaways — 2 weeks
– Arrange personnel — 4 weeks
– Hold the event — 1 week
– Select candidates — 1 week
– Follow up with appropriate candidates — 1 week
Let‘s map out the network diagram.
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Critical Path Method Example
• The network diagram:
Reserve facility
(6 weeks)
Get brochures, etc.
(2 weeks)
Arrange Personnel
(4 weeks)
Start
Hold event
(1 week)
Select Candidates
(1 week)
Follow Up
(1 week)
Done
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early Start Early
Finish
Reserve
Facility
6
ObtainBrochures
2
Arrange
Personnel
4
Hold Event 1
Select
Candidates
1
Follow Up 1
Early start is
the latest of
the
predecessoractivities‘
early finishes
Early finish is
the early start
plus the
duration
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early Start Early
Finish
Reserve
Facility
6 0
Obtain
Brochures
2 0
Arrange
Personnel
4 0
Hold Event 1
Select
Candidates
1
Follow Up 1
These items
have no
predecessors,so they can
start
immediately
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early Start Early
Finish
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1
Select
Candidates
1
Follow Up 1
+
++
=
==
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early Start Early
Finish
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6
Select
Candidates
1
Follow Up 1
The latest‗early
finish‘ date
of a
predecessor
is the ‗early
start‘ date
of the
successor
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early Start Early
Finish
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1
Follow Up 1
+ =
Repeat
through the
chart
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early Start Early
Finish
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1 7 8
Follow Up 1 8 9
+ =
+ =
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1 7 8
Follow Up 1 8 9
Late Start
= Late
Finish -
Duration
Earliest
late start of
thesuccessor
tasks
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1 7 8
Follow Up 1 8 9 9
The late finishis the latest
time a task can
finish without
slipping the
project.
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1 7 8
Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8
9 - 1 = 8
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1 7 8 8
Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4
Hold Event 1 6 7
Select
Candidates
1 7 8 8 7
Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8
8 - 1 = 7
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6 6 0
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2 6 4
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4 6 2
Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6
Select
Candidates
1 7 8 8 7
Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6 6 0
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2 6 4
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4 6 2
Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6
Select
Candidates
1 7 8 8 7
Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8
Float (or Slack) = Late Finish –
Early Finish
= Late Start – Early Start
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6 6 0 0
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2 6 4 4
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4 6 2 2
Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6 0
Select
Candidates
1 7 8 8 7 0
Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8 0
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CPM Example (continued)
Task Duration Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
Reserve
Facility
6 0 6 6 0 0
ObtainBrochures
2 0 2 6 4 4
Arrange
Personnel
4 0 4 6 2 2
Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6 0Select
Candidates
1 7 8 8 7 0Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8 0
Tasks with zerofloat are on the
critical path. If they
slip, the project
completion slips.
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Critical Path Method Example
Reserve facility
(6 weeks)
Get brochures, etc.
(2 weeks)
Arrange Personnel
(4 weeks)
Start
Hold event
(1 week)
Select Candidates
(1 week)
Follow Up
(1 week)
Done
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PERT (continued)
• PERT assumes a probability distribution for
possible durations.
• As a practical matter, PERT uses optimistic,
pessimistic, and most-likely durations as inputs tothe calculation.
– Best way to get these estimates is simply to talk with
people who have completed similar projects.
PERT-type algorithms then use a weighted
average duration.
6
) _ *4( c pessimistilikelymost optimisticduration
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Examples
• Assume we‘re in charge of building the newVisteon headquarters.
– We have a series of high-level tasks and we‘ve
identified their precedence relationships.
– We have also determined what a best-case, realistic,
and worst-case duration for each step is.
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Examples (cont.)
Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case
duration
Likely
Duration
Worst-case
Duration
Weighted
Average
Duration
Std. Dev
(Worst –
Best) / 6
A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years
B Design
building
A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years
C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years
D Contract
builders
B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years
E Arrange
financing
B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years
G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years
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Examples (cont.)
Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case
duration
Likely
Duration
Worst-case
Duration
Weighted
Average
Duration
Std. Dev
(Worst –
Best) / 6
A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr.
B Design
building
A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years
C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years
D Contract
builders
B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years
E Arrange
financing
B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years
G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years
87.06
275.0*42.0
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Examples (cont.)
Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case
duration
Likely
Duration
Worst-case
Duration
Weighted
Average
Duration
Std. Dev
(Worst –
Best) / 6
A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr.
B Design
building
A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years 1.58 yr.
C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.13 yr.
D Contract
builders
B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years 0.4 yr.
E Arrange
financing
B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.28 yr.
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years 0.88 yr.
G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years 0.48 yr.
Completing
the column.
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Exercise
Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case
duration
Likely
Duration
Worst-case
Duration
Weighted
Average
Duration
Std. Dev
(Worst –
Best) / 6
A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr.
B Design
building
A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years 1.58 yr.
C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.13 yr.
D Contract
builders
B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years 0.4 yr.
E Arrange
financing
B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.28 yr.
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years 0.88 yr.
G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years 0.48 yr.
Exercise: Draw the network diagram and find
the critical path.
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Exercise—Network Diagram
Select Site
ObtainPermits
ArrangeFinancing
PayContractors
DesignBuilding
ContractBuilders
BuildHQ
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Exercises—Critical Path
Task ID Description Predecessors Weighted
Average
Duration
Early Start Early
Finish
Late Finish Late Start Float
A Select Site none 0.87 yr. 0 0.87 .87 0 0
B Design
building
A 1.58 yr. 0.87 2.45 2.45 0.87 0
C Obtain
permits
B 0.13 yr. 2.45 2.58 2.85 2.72 0.27
D Contract
builders
B 0.4 yr. 2.45 2.85 2.85 2.45 0
E Arrange
financing
B 0.28 yr. 2.45 2.73 2.85 2.57 0.12
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.88 yr. 2.85 3.73 3.73 2.85 0
G Pay
contractors
F 0.48 yr. 3.73 4.21 4.21 3.73 0
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Exercises—Critical Path
Task ID Description Predecessors Weighted
Average
Duration
Early Start Early
Finish
Late Finish Late Start Float
A Select Site none 0.87 yr. 0 0.87 .87 0 0
B Design
building
A 1.58 yr. 0.87 2.45 2.45 0.87 0
C Obtain
permits
B 0.13 yr. 2.45 2.58 2.85 2.72 0.27
D Contract
builders
B 0.4 yr. 2.45 2.85 2.85 2.45 0
E Arrange
financing
B 0.28 yr. 2.45 2.73 2.85 2.57 0.12
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.88 yr. 2.85 3.73 3.73 2.85 0
G Pay
contractors
F 0.48 yr. 3.73 4.21 4.21 3.73 0
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Exercise—Critical Path
Select Site
ObtainPermits
ArrangeFinancing
PayContractors
DesignBuilding
ContractBuilders
BuildHQ
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Examples (cont.)
• From the exercise, the overall duration is the sum
of the expected durations on the critical path.
– Overall duration = 0.87 + 1.58 + 0.4 + 0.88 + 0.48 =
4.21 years.
• To determine the variability in the critical path
estimate, we assume that the durations of each task
are statistically independent of the durations of theothers.
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Examples (cont.)
• Because variances (2) of independent random
events are additive,
• Variance is the square of the standard deviation,
which, for each event, is calculated as:
path taskscriticalall
2
task
2
projectoverall
6
_ _ durationoptimisticdurationc Pessimisti
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Examples (cont.)
Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case
duration
Likely
Duration
Worst-case
Duration
Weighted
Average
Duration
Std. Dev
(Worst –
Best) / 6
A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr. 0.3 yr.
B Design
building
A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years 1.58 yr. 0.25 yr.
C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.13 yr. 0.03 yr
D Contract
builders
B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years 0.4 yr. 0.03 yr.
E Arrange
financing
B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.28 yr. 0.05 yr.
F Build
headquarters
C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years 0.88 yr. 0.05 yr.
G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years 0.48 yr. 0.12 yr.
Filling inthe column
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Examples (cont.)
• Because variances (2) of independent randomevents are additive,
path taskscriticalall
2
task
2
projectoverall
41.0
17.0
12.005.003.025.03.0
projectoverall
2
projectoverall
222222
projectoverall
Note: Be careful to add the variances, not the standard deviations.
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Examples (cont.)
• With the expected value and standard deviation of
the critical path, one can use basic statistics to
determine the probability that a project will be
completed within a certain length of time. – We‘ll cover Continuous Distributions in Week Two.
– We‘ll practice this application in Week Four.
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Compression
• Compression involves finding ways to shorten theduration of a project without changing its scope.
– Crashing: Compressing timing by looking at cost and
schedule tradeoffs to determine how to reduce the most
time for the least money.
– Fast tracking: Doing activities in parallel that are
normally done sequentially. This reduces timing at a
significant risk of rework.
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Crashing
• By spending extra money to reduce timing oncritical path items, overall project completion
timing can be reduced.
For purposes of the exam, it will be necessary toknow the cost per unit time to crash each activity.
ID Predecessors Normal Time Crash Time Cost per
Week to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
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Crashing (cont.)
Questions asked typically include:Project cost and duration without crashing.
Project cost and duration at maximum crashing.
Project cost and duration for minimum cost project.
For non-crash situations, the critical path analysis
will give project duration, and the cost per unit
time of the project can be used to determine its
total cost.
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Example—no crashing
• Assume it costs $15,000 per week for a given project. Also, assume the information below.
Find the non-crashed duration and cost.
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
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Example—Network Diagram
A
B
C
D
E
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Example—no crashing
• Duration is 23 weeks without crashing.
• Cost is $15,000 per week x 23 weeks = $345,000
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Crashing
For a maximum crashing situation, it is necessary todetermine which critical path task has the least crash cost
per unit time.
This task is crashed to the maximum it can be until the critical path
changes.
If the critical path has not changed, the next least expensive crash
cost on the critical path is chosen and the above step is repeated.
If the critical path changes, the new critical paths are identified.
The least expensive crash costs for each critical path are identified.
These are reduced to the point the critical path changes. Note thatif one task is on both critical paths, it is not counted twice when
tallying crash costs.
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Crashing (cont.)
This continues until no further crashing is possible
for items on the critical path(s). The result is the
maximum crash condition.
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Example—Maximum crashing
• Find the maximum crash duration and cost for the prior example.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Normal
Time
Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
A 4 weeks 0 4 4 0 0B 5 weeks 4 9 9 4 0
C 3 weeks 4 7 15 12 8
D 6 weeks 9 15 15 9 0
E 8 weeks 15 23 23 15 0
Identify Critical
Path
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Example—Max Crash.
A
B
C
D
E
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
The least cost critical path
item to crash is D
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
D can be crashed up to 2
weeks.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Normal
Time
Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
A 4 weeks 0 4 4 0 0
B 5 weeks 4 9 9 4 0
C 3 weeks 4 7 15 12 8
D 6 weeks 9 15 15 9 0
E 8 weeks 15 23 23 15 0
There is eight weeks of float on all of the
non-critical path items, so we know the
critical path will not change if we shortedtask D by 2 weeks.
T k D i h d Th i i l h d ‘
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors Time CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
Task D is crashed. The critical path doesn‘t
change. We find the next least expensive
critical path item to crash. This is task A.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors Time CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
A can be crashed up to 3 weeks.
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Example—Max Crash.
A
B
C
D
E
A is on all the paths, so
crashing it will not change
the critical path.
T k A i h d 3 k W fi d th
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors Time CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 1 week 1 week
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
Task A is crashed 3 weeks.. We find the
next least expensive critical path item to
crash. This is task B.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors Time CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 1 week 1 week
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
Task B can be crashed up to 3 weeks.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Normal
Time
Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
A 1 week 0 1 1 0 0
B 5 weeks 1 6 6 1 0
C 3 weeks 1 4 10 7 6
D 4 weeks 6 10 10 6 0
E 8 weeks 10 18 18 10 0
The only non-critical path task has 6 weeks of
float, so crashing task B will not change the
critical path.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors Time CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 1 week 1 week
B A 2 weeks 2 weeks
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
Task B is fully crashed. The next least
expensive task on the critical path is Task E,
which can be crashed up to 5 weeks.
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Example—Max Crash.
A
B
C
D
E
E is on all the paths, so
crashing it will not change
the critical path.
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Example—Maximum crashing
ID Predecessors Time CrashTime
Cost perWeek to
Crash
A none 1 week 1 week
B A 2 weeks 2 weeks
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 3 weeks 3 weeks
Task E is crashed as much as possible. Theonly task that is able to be crashed now is
task C, which is not on the critical path. We
are at the maximum crash condition.
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Example—Maximum crashing
• Our project duration is now calculated at 10weeks.
• Our project crash costs are:Task Weeks Crashed Cost per time to
Crash
Total Cost
A 3 $8,000 $24,000
B 3 $10,000 $30,000
D 2 $3,500 $7,000
E 5 $25,000 $125,000
TOTAL: $186,000
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Example—Maximum crashing
• The crashing costs were $186,000. This is addedto our ongoing project costs.
• Ongoing project costs = 10 weeks duration x
$15,000 per week = $150,000
• Our total project cost was $336,000.
• Note that this amount may be more or less than the
‗normal‘ project duration costs.
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Crashing—Minimum cost
To determine the minimum cost project, an
iterative approach is used.
The premise of this technique is that ongoing costsof the project ($x/month) are more than some of
the costs to crash tasks ($y/month). By selectively
identifying the tasks that reduce total cost, the
project cost is optimized.
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Crashing (continued.)
Procedure for the least cost project:1. Identify all of the critical paths.
2. Identify the tasks on the critical path(s) that have a lowercrash cost than the ongoing cost of the project.
3. Choose the least crash cost task(s) that reduce all of thecritical paths (and therefore the project). The total crashcost (per unit time) of these must be less than the ongoing
project cost. If not, no further cost reductions are possible.
4. Crash them until they can no longer be crashed or untilthe critical path changes.
5. Repeat steps 2 through 5.
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Example—Minimum cost
• Using the prior example, find the minimum costduration. How much does this cost?
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
The least cost critical path
item to crash is D
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
It can be crashed 2 weeks, and the
critical path (based on the last
exercise) will not change.
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
With an ongoing project cost of $15,000 per week, any crash
in Task D (as long as Task D remains on the critical path)
will reduce total cost.
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
D is crashed as much as possible. The
next least expensive critical path item
is Task A.
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
From the prior exercise, we know the critical path
will not change if task A is crashed. As $8,000
crash cost is less than the $15,000 ongoing costs,
we crash task A as much as possible.
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 1 week 1 week
B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
Task B‘s crash costs are less than the ongoing
project costs, so it is crashed as much as possible.
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Predecessors NormalTime
CrashTime
Cost perTime to
Crash
A none 1 week 1 week
B A 2 weeks 2 weeks
C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000
D B 4 weeks 4 weeks
E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000
The only remaining critical path item is task E,
which has a crash cost higher than the ongoing
cost of the project. Therefore, no further costreductions are possible on this project.
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Example—Minimum cost
ID Normal
Time
Early
Start
Early
Finish
Late
Finish
Late
Start
Float
A 1 week 0 1 1 0 0
B 2 weeks 1 3 3 1 0
C 3 weeks 1 4 7 4 3
D 4 weeks 3 7 7 3 0
E 8 weeks 7 15 15 7 0
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Example—Minimum cost
• The crashing costs were $61,000. This is added toour ongoing project costs.
• Ongoing project costs = 15 weeks duration x
$15,000 per week = $225,000
• Our total project cost was $286,000 (versus
$345,000 for the non-crashed project).
• Note that more complex examples will result in
multiple critical paths.
P j M
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Project Management
• That concludes the section on ProjectManagement.
• Any questions?
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Project Value
• Evaluation of a project must take account of the―time value of money.‖
• The premise behind ‗time value of money‘ is that
$1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow.
• Why?
– Inflation.
– Lost investment opportunity.
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Project Value (cont.)
• To account for this, a discount factor is applied tomoney we will receive (or spend) in the future.
This discount factor is usually called the ‗rate of
return‘ and is analogous to the interest rate on a
loan or deposit.
• Example: If the interest rate r is 6% per annum
and we will receive $1000 in one year, then the
value of this in today‘s dollars is:
40.939$
06.1
1000
1
1000$ todayValue
r
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Project Value (cont.)
• Terms – Rate of return is also called ‗cost of capital‘.
• An organization‘s established ‗hurdle rate‘ may also be used in
the same calculations.
• The terms TARR (Time Adjusted Rate of Return) and IRR(Internal Rate of Return) are also used.
– Value today is generally called the present value or net
present value of the decision.
– Payback period (or simply ‗payback‘) is the length of
time it will take the company to recoup its investment.
P j t V l D i i M ki
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Project Value—Decision Making
• Typical Decision making critieria1. If a project‘s TARR is greater than an established
‗hurdle rate‘, the project is approved.
2. If the project‘s net present value is greater than zero,
the project is approved.3. If the project‘s payback is less than some period of
time, the project is approved.
P j t V l ( t)
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Project Value (cont)
• Many projects result in a stream of savings, ratherthan just a ‗one time‘ save.
– Example: Improving the process saves us $0.43 for
each fuel tank produced.
– Example: Negotiating a lower price for our computerservices saves us $500,000 per year.
• Each year‘s savings get discounted back into
today‘s dollars to determine the value of the
project.
321
Savings3Year
1
Savings2Year
1
Savings1YeartodayValue
r r r
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Project Value (cont)
• The NPV formula for an infinite stream of payments of amount ‗A‘ given an investment and
a rate of return ‗r‘ is:
• In our example, the net present value is:
r
A Investment- NPV
000,000,210.0000,300000,000,1 NPV
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Project Value (cont)
• For a finite stream of payments, the Excel function NPV() can be used.
• The syntax of this is NPV(rate, value, value,
value)
• Example: If you invest $10,000 today and receive
annual payments of $8,000 for three years, what is
the net present value of this transaction, assuming
a 6% cost of capital? present value = -10000 + NPV(0.06, 8000,8000,8000)
present value = $11,384.10
Project Val e (cont)
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Project Value (cont)
• Given a stream of payments, it is also possible tocalculate the internal rate of return.
• For a stream of n payments, one simply solves
for the roots of an nth order polynomial.
Or…
• One uses the IRR() function in Excel to do it for
you.
• The syntax for IRR is (value, value, …, guess). Note that the guess is optional.
Project Value (cont)
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Project Value (cont)
• Example: – Assume investing $1,000,000 for a new machine lowers
piece prices sufficiently that the company saves$250,000 per year. Also assume that the product has a 5year life (and no salvage value for the machine). What
is the internal rate of return for this investment?
internal rate of return = IRR(-1000000,250000,250000,250000,250000,250000)
internal rate of return = 0.079 or 7.9%
– If this was greater than or equal to the organization‘shurdle rate, this project would be considered a goodinvestment.
Project Value (cont)
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Project Value (cont)
• The third Excel function that is useful is the payment function, PMT(). The PMT function
takes as input the present value, the rate of
return, and the number of payments. It outputs
the periodic payment that results.
• Syntax: Payment PMT = (rate, nper, pv) where
rate is the rate of return, nper is the number of
periods, and pv is the present value.
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Rolled Throughput Yield
The Classical Perspective of Yield
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0.95
0.97
0.99
1.01
1 4 7 10 13 16 19
Y = SU
Where:
Y = Yield
S = Number of Units that PassU = Number of Units Tested
Where:
Y = Yield
S = Number of Units that Pass
U = Number of Units Tested
Y.Y.
Time PeriodTime Period
The Classical Perspective of Yield
Traditionally, the
output of a process is
compared to a
pass/fail criteria to
determine yield.
Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge
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Test Room Fai lu re RateTest Room F ailur e Rate
Data: Jan 92 through Dec 92
Data Courtesy of Asea Brown Boveri , Ltd .
Each data point is a factory
Y.FT = 1- Failure Rate
Profit
Margin
Profit
Margin
0
.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
-.03 0 .025 .05 .075 .1 .125 .15 .175 .2 .225
Failure Rate
S c r a p R a t e
S…
0.01
.02
.03
.04
.05
.06
.07
.08
.09
-.03 0 .025 .05 .075 .1 .125 .15 .175 .2 .225
Failure Rate
S c r a p R a t e
S…
Test Room Fail ure RateTest Room F ailur e Rate
Scrap
Rate
Scrap
Rate
Data Courtesy of Asea Brown Boveri , Ltd .
Each data point is a factory
Y.FT = 1- Failure Rate
Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge
Intuition would tell us that yield should be correlated to profitmargin and scrap rate…but the data do not show this.
First Time Yield
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First Time Yield
• First time yield (also called first pass yield or firsttime through) is another measurable. First time
yield does not count rework.
Finished
Product
85
Units
A100
Units
20 Units Rework
15 Units
Scrap
“Hidden
Factory”
Non-Value
Added
Activities
20 Units
65 Units
First Time Yield is Process Yield Without Rework…
Rework is the „Hidden Factory‟
Traditional yield
would be85/100 or 85%.
First-time yield
is only 65%
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Rolled Throughput Yield
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RightFirstTime
Rev. 1.1 1/99
Receive parts from Supplier
45,000 PPM wasted
46,652 PPM wasted
Following Receiving
Inspection and Line Fall-out...
From Machining Operations
At Test Stands on
first attempt
113,617 parts per millionwasted opportunities
21,965 PPM wasted
95.5% Yield
97% Yield
94.4% Yield
YRT = .955*.97*.94.4 = 87.4%
Rolled Throughput Yield
Traditional Yield View Exercise
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What’s the Yield?
_________%
100 units
85 units
Traditional Yield View—Exercise
Simple First Time Yield = Traditional Yield
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Simple First Time Yield = Traditional Yield
• What‘s the Yield?
• 1 x .9 x .97 x .98
• 85 %
100 documents
85 units
Scrap 10
Scrap 3
Scrap 2
100
90
87
100/100=1
90/100=.9
87/90=.97
85/87=.98
First Time Yield (YFT) Gives Credit Only for Product not scrapped the First Time
Rolled Throughput Yield
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Product A is Produced in 3 Consecutive (Independent) Steps
Step 3
YFT = 90%
Step 1 Step 2
Rolled Throughput Yield is the probability that anygiven part will go through the process with zerodefects (no rework)
YFT = 80% YFT = 70%
A
Rolled Throughput Yield = Product of the First Pass Yields
YRT = (.80)(.70)(.90) = .504 = 50.4%
Rolled Throughput Yield
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Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge
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Verify
Rework
Scrap
Product
N s
Classic Yield =s
NRolled Throughput Yield = P(Op1)*P(Op2)….
= e -dpu
Operation
The Hidden Factory and Rolled Yield
Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge
Rolled Throughput Yieldcan also be stated in terms
of average defects per unit
(dpu)
Rolled Throughput Yield
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99% 99% 98%
Op 1 OutputOp 2x =
Without Inspection or Test Without Inspection or Test Without Inspection or Test
Process Centered Process Centered
ORORY
RT= e – DPU
There are two operations (OPs) for a unit, and each OP has a 0.01probability of a defect. Therefore:
DPU = 2 OPs per unit x .01 defect per OP= .02 defects per unit
e-.02
= .98019or 98%
Rolled Throughput Yield
Complexity
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# of Parts (Steps) ± 3 ± 4 ± 5 ± 61 93.32% 99.379% 99.9767% 99.99966
7 61.63 95.733 99.839 99.9976
10 50.08 93.96 99.768 99.9966
20 25.08 88.29 99.536 99.993240 6.29 77.94 99.074 99.9864
60 1.58 68.81 98.614 99.979680 0.40 60.75 98.156 99.9728
100 0.10 53.64 97.70 99.966150 -- 39.38 96.61 99.949
200 -- 28.77 95.45 99.932
300 -- 15.43 93.26 99.898400 -- 8.28 91.11 99.864
500 -- 4.44 89.02 99.830600 -- 2.38 86.97 99.796
700 -- 1.28 84.97 99.762
800 -- 0.69 83.02 99.729900 -- 0.37 81.11 99.695
1000 -- 0.20 79.24 99.661
1200 -- 0.06 75.88 99.593
3000 -- -- 50.15 98.98517000 -- -- 0.02 94.384
38000 -- -- -- 87.880
70000 -- -- -- 78.820
150000 -- -- -- 60.000
(Distribution Shifted ± 1.5 )
Process
Capability
Complexity(part count or process steps)
Rolled
Yield
Complexity
4 capability in each of 100 steps produces a rolled throughput yield of
.99379 to the 100th power = 0.5254 or 52.54%
Complexity
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The GOAL is to REDUCE the number of opportunities
andconcurrently INCREASE the capability of each opportunity that remains.
NO!
Is Complexity better?
Complexity
Formulas to Know
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DPU (Defects per unit) = Defects / Unit
TOP (Total Opportunities) = Units * opportunities
DPO (Defects per Opportunity) = Defects / TOPProbability the Opportunity is defective = DPO
Pr(ND) (Probability the Opportunity is Not defective)
Pr(ND) = 1 - DPO
Rolled Yield ] (The likelihood that any give unit of product willcontain 0 defects)
YRT= Pr(ND) # of OpportunitiesYRT = Pr(ND) * Pr(ND) * Pr(ND) *......Pr(ND) n
] Recommend using when you know the yield for each process element or opportunity
Formulas to Know
Calculating Transactional Yield
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Assumption1 unit = 1 invoiceThe invoice has one process step that is CTQ for the customer :1) Total invoice price = customer’s PO price
• One opportunity for a defect exists for each invoice.• There is one opportunity for a defect in the invoicing process
To evaluate actual invoicing performance:
Process # of # # Opp YieldImpacting Units of of for for
CTQ Produced Defects Successes Process Process
Ready for Pick Up 500 35 465 1 0.93
YRT= .93
Calculating Transactional Yield
Calculating Transactional Yield
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Assumptions:
1 Unit = 1 Invoice
Invoicing to the customer has 3 process steps that are CTQ’s for the customer 1) Correct Quantity2) Correct Price3) Invoice Received in a Timely Manner
• 3 opportunities for a defect exist for each invoice.• There is one opportunity for a defect in each process
To evaluate actual invoicing performance:
YRT = .93 x .7 x .85 = .55
Process # of # # Opp YieldImpacting Units of of for for
CTQ Produced Defects Successes Process Process
Correct Quantity 500 465 1 0.93Correct Price 500 350 1 0.7Invoice Received On Time 500 425 1 0.85
260
35150
75
Calculating Transactional Yield
Hidden Factory
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Hidden Factory
What is it?• Unnecessary activities—We will cover more on this in the Lean Techniques Module.• Rework loops.
Learning Exercise
ABC Electric has demanded that the quality and timeliness of the invoices received into the Accounts PayableDepartment be at a 6 level. The CTQ elements for ABC Electric are an invoice where quantity and price matchthe PO that was submitted. Also, the invoice must be received by ABC Electric within 3 days of shipping forreceiving purposes.
On the following page are the steps that your invoicing department has put in place to reach the level ofquality the customer is expecting.
Hidden Factory
Hidden Factory
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If no defects were in the system, which activities could be eliminated?
How can defects on upstream steps affect downstream steps?
Operator 1enters thequantity
shipped into thedata entrysystem
Operator 2inputs the priceof the Productinto the system
The confirmationis check by
Operator 2 foraccuracy
Was the inputaccurate?
Yes
No
Invoice
Operator 3inspects invoice
for accuracy
Operator 3mails invoice
to thecustomer
Customerinspects invoice
to determineaccuracy of theinvoice and if it
was received ontime.
Is pricecorrect?
Yes
No
Does invoicemeet CTQ'S?
Pay invoiceand chargea $10 penalty /
invoice
Pay invoice
Yes
No
confirmation
Hidden Factory
Hidden Factory
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If no defects were in the system, which activities could be eliminated?
How can defects on upstream steps affect downstream steps?
Operator 1enters thequantity
shipped into thedata entrysystem
Operator 2inputs the priceof the Productinto the system
The confirmationis check by
Operator 2 foraccuracy
Was the inputaccurate?
Yes
No
Invoice
Operator 3inspects invoice
for accuracy
Operator 3mails invoice
to thecustomer
Customerinspects invoice
to determineaccuracy of theinvoice and if it
was received ontime.
Is pricecorrect?
Yes
No
Does invoicemeet CTQ'S?
Pay invoiceand chargea $10 penalty /
invoice
Pay invoice
Yes
No
confirmation
Hidden Factory
Defects and the Hidden Factory
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Six Sigma is about identi fying/quantifyingand eliminating the H idden Factory through
Defect Reduction and ul timately Design for 6 Sigma
90% Yield After
Inspection or Test
Each defect must be detected, repaired and placed back
in the process. This results in Wasted:
• Time
• Money
• Resources• Floor Space
Scrap
Rework
Hidden Factory
NOT
OK
OperationInputs Inspect First TimeYield
OK90%
Customer Quality
Defects and the Hidden Factory
• This classic approach to
calculating yield does not account
for the hidden factory.
Described below is any process that meets a customer need
Rolled Throughput Yield Versus FirstTime Yield
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Time Yield
66% 90%
... why not?
Scrap
90%Customer Quality
Rework
Hidden FactoryNOTOK
Yield AfterInspection or Test
OperationInputs Inspect First Time Yield =
OK
ProcessA B C
90% Yield
90% Yield
81 % 73 %
Final TestD
Using “final test (or first time) yield” ignores the hidden factory. Final test
performance is a function of inspection & test not actual defect data.
Rolled-Throughput Yield Classical First-Time Yield
90% Yield
66 %
90% Yield
Rolled Yield
Six Sigma, Metrics andContinuous Improvement
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Continuous Improvement
• Six Sigma is characterized by: – defining critical business metrics
– tracking them
– improving them using proactive process improvement
• Six Sigma‘s primary metric is Defects per Unit,
which is directly related to Rolled Throughput
Yield (Yrt)
• Yrt = e-dpu
• Cost of Poor Quality and Cycle Time
(Throughput) are two other key metrics
Cost of Poor Quality
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Cos o oo Qua y
Cost of (Poor) Quality
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( ) Q y
• The ‗hidden factory‘ in any process is one key partof the cost of poor quality (COPQ).
– Direct cost to rework product.
– Cost of scrap (including disposal costs).
– Foregone throughput/productivity.
• Hidden factory costs are insidious — they become
part of the day-to-day business and go unnoticed.
• Tracking COPQ is not easy with traditional costaccounting systems.
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What is Cost of Poor Quality?
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y
• In addition to the direct costs associated with finding
and fixing defects, ―Cost of Poor Quality‖ also
includes:
– The hidden cost of failing to meet customer expectations
the first time
– The hidden opportunity for increased efficiency – The hidden potential for higher profits
– The hidden loss in market share
– The hidden increase in production cycle time
– The hidden labor associated with ordering replacement
material
• In almost every company, the COPQ exceeds the
profit margin.
What is Cost of Poor Quality?
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• Direct Costs of Failures – Internal Failure
• Costs associated with defects found BEFORE the customer receives a product or service
– External Failure
• Costs associated with defects found AFTER the customer receives a product or service
• Costs to Control or Avoid Failures – Appraisal Cost
• Costs associated with measuring, evaluating, or auditing products orservices to assure conformance to quality requirements
– Prevention Cost• Costs of activities specifically designed to prevent poor quality
What is Cost of Poor Quality?
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Optimum Quality Costs
Total
Quality
CostsInternal &
External
Failure Costs
Minimal COPQ
Quality of Conformance, %0
(100%
Defective)
Appraisal &
Prevention
Costs
100
(Zero
Defects)
C o s t p e r g o o d u n i t o f p r o
d u c t
The modern COPQ model depicted
here shows failure costs going to zero
at 100% conformance (zero defects).
Accordingly, appraisal and prevention
costs reach a maximum at zero defects.
The total COPQ is obtained by adding
the two sets of costs at a given
conformance level. Adapted fromJuran‘s Quality Control Handbook
(p.4.19), by J.M. Juran and F.M. Gryna
(Eds.), 1998, New York: McGray-Hill
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“Traditional” Cost of Poor Quality
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• Customer Returns
• Testing Costs
• Inspection Costs
• Scrap
• Quality Rejects
4% of Visteon’s
$18.5B in sales is
$740M
COPQ Data
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Source: Journal for Tooling & Production. December, 1994.
Manufacturing IndustryPoor Quality Cost
asPercent of Sales
Median Profitsas
Percent of Sales
4.3 7.1 2.34.4 7.0 1.2
5.2 7.1 2.25.2 7.3 2.95.9 6.9 1.65.9 7.2 3.05.9 7.2 2.94.3 7.0 2.16.3 8.2 4.17.0 8.2 3.66.1 7.2 3.36.1 8.1 2.76.9 7.8 1.5
Aluminum Extruded Products
Steel Wire & Related Products
Aluminum Die Castings
Bolts, Nuts, Rivets & WashersFoundries: AluminumForgings-NonferrousMetal Stampings
Automotive StampingsElectronic ComponentsIndustrial MachineryMetal-Cutting Machine ToolsMotor Vehicles, PartsPlastics ProductsScrew Machine Products 5.3 7.0 2.2
Low High
Waste, Spoilage, Rejects & Rework As Percent of Sales
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COPQ Example: Operational
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• Air conditioningcondensers go
through an end-of-
line ‗mass
spectrometer‘ leak
check. Those thatfail are ‗bubble
tested‘ in a dunk
tank and repaired.
Mass Spec
TestingLeak? Pack and ship
No
Dunk tank test
to find the leak
Yes
Find Leak?
3rd try?
No
No
Yes
Scrap partYes
Hidden
Factory
Repair
COPQ Example: Operational (cont’d)
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• COPQ includes: – Equipment, floor space, and personnel to dunk tank test.
– Equipment, floor space, and personnel to repair parts.
– Costs to move/handle the material, including costs of parts
damaged during movement.
– Costs of extra dunnage to accommodate parts in the hiddenfactory.
– Costs of scrap condensers (net of reclaimed aluminum.)
– Lost production due to retest, including overtime costs to meet
customer requirements.
– Other inventory carrying costs on product being reworked.
COPQ Example: Transactional
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• A CPARS prototype tooling order has an incorrect buyer code. It is rejected back to the requisitioner,
who must then spend time correcting and
resubmitting.
– Costs include the time of the requisitioner, the buyer,and anyone else who handled the order.
– Other costs may accrue due to this delay:
• premium tooling funds to meet deadlines
• delayed incorporation of material cost savings• overtime to test the prototypes and still meet timing
Visteon Opportunities
Vi t 4% f
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Visteon 4% ofsales = $740 Million
Visteon 20% of sales= $3.7 Billion
VISTEON CONFIDENTIAL
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Visteon COPQ Estimates
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• Items Related to QR‘s $97.3M
• Launch Costs $35M
• Stop Ships/Field Actions $22.4M
• Financial Controls $72.3M
• Supplier spills/premium freight $40.5M
• Plant QA $22.7M
• Scrap and Excess Inventory $71.8M
• Manufacturing Costs $361M
• Equipment and Process Quality $95M
• Other Support Costs $192M
Total
$1.01B
Cost Element Estimated Annual Cost
Visteon COPQ Estimates
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• Our material and equipment suppliers also have COPQ
• This COPQ is included in the prices Visteon pays formaterial and equipment
– This COPQ is not shown in the $1B estimate
• The $AVE program is our primary initiative for reducingCOPQ with our material and equipment suppliers
• The $AVE program target is to reduce our costs by $1.2 B
over three years
Visteon COPQ Estimates
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• Another major category of COPQ is presently being paid by our OEM customers, and by consumers …the costs of replacing defective products in the field
• A major portion of this category of COPQ iswarranty
– Our major customer – Ford – presently pays more than$400 Million per year in warranty costs associated withVisteon products
Visteon COPQ Estimates
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• If we add these three categories of COPQ, we can seea PARTIAL estimate of Visteon COPQ:
– Initial internal estimates: $1 Billion
– $AVE 3-year target: $1.2 Billion – Annual warranty (partial): $0.4 Billion
• Partial est. of Visteon COPQ: $2.6 Billion (14% ofsales)
• So … how do we get the money?
How is Visteon Attacking COPQ?
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• Visteon Breakaway Improvement
• Aggregated improvement measures (COPQ, Revenue)
• Improvement Initiatives
• Tools, Techniques, Processes
Breakaway Objectives for COPQ
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Cost of Poor Quality ~ $1850 M
2 0 0 2 P r o f i t s
V o l u m e / E x d h a n g e / P r i c i n g / E c o n .
I n f o r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y
N e w B u s i n e s s P r o b a b i l i t y
M a t e r i a l E f f i c i e n c i e s
M a n u f a c t u r i n g E f f i c i e n c i e s
R e s t r u c t u r i n g S a v i n g
A d m
i n , S e l l i n g , M k t , & E n g .
E f f i c i e n c i e s
P r i c e a b l e D e s i g n
P r o f i t a b i l i t y G a p
P r o g r e s s T o D a t e
COPQ Improvement Initiatives
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• $AVE Program
• Manufacturing Efficiencies
• Engineering/A&S Efficiencies
• TVA/TVM
Note: $AVE, Manufacturing Efficiencies, and Engineering/A&S Efficiencies
are internally driven initiatives. TVA/TVM is externally driven.
How Does a COPQ Project Work?
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• Scope/define the project
• Trace the usage of resources – Identify quality-related activities – Determine costs associated with those activities
• Identify/prioritize specific improvementopportunities
• Initiate improvement projects
• Keep track of improvement projects – Results as expected? – Further opportunities?
How Does a COPQ Project Work?
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Does this method look familiar?
• Scope/define the project … Define
• Trace the usage of resources … Measure +
Value Stream Map
• Identify/prioritize opportunities … Analyze
• Initiate improvement projects … Improve
• Keep track … Control
How Does a COPQ Project Work?
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• What tools and techniques can we use to get the money?
– In house: Lean Six Sigma (DMAIC)
– Supply base: $AVE
Cost of Poor Quality
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• Any questions?