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    1© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    Program ManagementBlack Belt Training

    Module #2

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    2© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    Project Management TheoryProject Value

    Rolled Throughput YieldCost of Poor Quality

    Instructor:Brian Edelman

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    Philosophy

    • Stop me immediately when a concept is unclear  — odds are,

    if you are confused about something, at least one other

     person in the room is also.

    • I will either:

     –  Try to rephrase/clarify the point

     –  Ask you to hold on for a few moments until we get to a

    downstream slide

     –  Defer it to 1:1 discussion.

    • Dual purposes of the material: –  Knowledge to do projects.

     –  Knowledge to pass certification exam.

    • Zip the Monkey.

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    Project Management Theory

    • Purpose

    • Deliverables

     –  Problem Statement

    • Objectives• Cost/Benefit Analysis

    • Team Makeup

    • Process Owner/Process Sponsor

     –  Project Closure

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    Project Management Theory Agenda(cont.)

    • Tools

     –  Timing

    • Critical Path Method

    • PERT

    • Compression

     –  Crashing

     –  Fast Tracking

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    Purpose—Why ProjectManagement?

    • To establish the boundaries, or ‗scope‘, of the

     project.

    • To determine what the goals of the project are.

    • To identify and obtain commitment for theresources necessary for project completion.

    • To complete the project in the most efficient and

    timely manner possible.

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    Deliverables

    • Problem Statement — A single paragraph that

    captures the ‗pain‘ the organization feels from the

     problem and what the Six Sigma project will do to

    improve it.• Objective — This lists the primary metric and the

    degree to which the project will improve the

    metric. As a baseline, improvement is typically

    targeted at 70% improvement from current status.After the completion of the Define phase, this is

    the ‗contract‘ for successful project completion. 

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    Deliverables (continued)

    • Benefits — This item is not the primary metric and

     goal of the project , but instead is a listing of the

     benefits that will accrue from achieving the goal.

     –  Financial Impacts — What is the bottom lineimprovement to the organization?

     –  Others — May include floor space, goodwill, TGW

    reductions, or other ‗soft‘ savings. 

     – Memo: Hard savings are generally things that will ‗hitthe bottom line.‘ As a rule of thumb they can be

    entered into the Cost Savings System (CSS). Soft

    savings are those things that may enable savings later

     but do not immediately affect the bottom line.

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    Deliverables (continued)

    • Team — To successfully complete the Define

     phase of a Six Sigma project requires that a

     preliminary team be identified. This team must

    include a representative from the local controller‘soffice, as well as all key stakeholders in the

     process.

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    Deliverables (continued)

    • Process Sponsor/Process Owner  — The manager

    who will ‗own‘ the process once the project is

    complete. He/she is responsible for making sure

    Visteon ‗sustains the gain‘ from the Six Sigma project once the project team completes its work.

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    Problem Statement

    • A well-crafted problem statement is key to

    successful project completion. It must align with

    the project objectives and metrics.

    • Example: –  Problem Statement: Defects on Line 1 have averaged

    121,000 ppm for the last four months. This does not

    allow us to meet our corporate cost and quality

    objectives –  Objective: Reduce ppm on Line 1 from an average of

    121,000 ppm to 50,000 ppm by July 1, 2002.

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    Project Closure

    • The project can be closed when it is verified that thegoals/objectives for the project have been achieved.

    • The most recent closure procedures are available on theSix Sigma website. (Home page:

    http://hub.visteon.com/6sigma/)• Project closure requires approval of the Black Belt, the

    Project Champion, the responsible FinanceAnalyst/Controller, and the divisional DeploymentDirector.

    • Certification requires two successfully closed projects,demonstrated competency in a statistical proficiencyexamination, and recommendation of the divisionalDeployment Director.

    http://hub.visteon.com/6sigma/http://hub.visteon.com/6sigma/

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    Project Management Tools

    • ―Project Management‖ generally refers to all

    aspects of the project: timing, cost, quality,

    resource availability, etc.

    • For purposes of this section, we will focus on project time management.

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    Project Scheduling

    • Once a project scope has been established, a

    schedule of work can be developed.

    • Typically, a series of tasks is identified, along with

    the precedence relationships, constraints, and whois responsible

    • This list of tasks needed to accomplish the project

    is sometimes called the Work Breakdown

    Structure (WBS).

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    Project Scheduling (cont.)

    • A ‗task‘ is any activity with an identifiable

     beginning and end.

     –  Ex: Purchase prototype tool

     –  Ex: Run DOE• Precedence relationships define how tasks relate to

    one another.

     –  Ex: Cannot PSW a part until a drawing for it is

    released.

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    Example WBS and Gantt ChartMonth 1 Month 2 Month 3 Month 4

    w1 w2 w3 w4 w1 w2 w3 w4 w1 w2 w3 w4 w1 w2 w3

    14-May 21-May 28-May 4-Jun 11-Jun 18-Jun 25-Jun 2-Jul 9-Jul 16-Jul 23-Jul 30-Jul 6-Aug 13-Aug 20-Aug 27

    Project Selection Form (from Project Champion)

    Define

    Develop Project Statement

    Identify Customer 

    Identify CTQ's

    Develop Y/X Diagram

    Map the Process

    Develop Fishbone Diagram

    Develop Cause & Effect Matrix

    Perform or Review FMEA

    Confirm Project Scope & Goal

    Refine Problem Statement

    Measure

    Develop Data Collection Plan

    Perform Measurement System Analysis

    Operational Definitions

    Gage R&R

    Conduct Data Collection

    Perform Graphical Analysis

    Pareto Chart

    Run ChartHistogram

    Box Plot

    Scatter Plot

    Conduct Baseline Capability Analysis

    Cp /CPk

    Rolled Throughput Yield

    DPMO

    Sigma Level

    Determine Cost of Poor Quality

    Confirm Project Scope & Goal

    Analyze

    Confirm Data Type - Attribute or Variable

     Attribute Data Analysis

    1 Proportion

    2 Proportion

    Chi- Square

    Variable Data Analysis

     Analysis of Variation

    F-Test

     ANOVA

     Analysis of Means

    1- Sample Test

    2- Sample Test

     ANOVA for Means

    Correlation Regression

    Improve

    Brainstorm Alternatives

    Conduct Design Of Experiments

    Create "should be" Process Map

    Conduct FMEA

    Perform Cost / Benefit Analysis

    Conduct Pilot

    Validate Improvement

    Control

    Mistake Proofing

    Long Term Measurement System Analysis Plan

    Develop Statistical Process Control Chart

    Develop Preventative Maintenance Plan

    Develop Reaction Plan

    Updated Standard Operating ProceduresCongratulate the team

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    Project Scheduling (cont.)

    • Precedence relationships are generally, but notalways, finish-to-start relationships:

     –  Finish-to-start: Cannot begin the next task until the

     preceding one is finished.

     –  Start-to-start: Cannot start the next task until the preceding one starts.

     –  Finish-to-finish: Cannot finish the next task until the

     preceding one finishesGantt Chart

    from MS

    Project

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    Project Scheduling (cont.)

    • Constraints can tie activities to specific dates.

     –  Ex: Must do equipment installation during contractual

    shutdown.

     –  Ex: Must file legal documents on/by specific dates.

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    Project Scheduling (cont.)

    • Analysis Tools — the most common general means

    of analyzing schedules include:

     –  Critical Path Method

     –  Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT) –  Memo: As an aside, CPM uses node-based information

    (duration), where PERT uses information on the links.

    From a practical matter, this makes little difference, and

    for the rest of this presentation, we will use node-based

    information, similar to Microsoft Project conventions.

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    Critical Path Method (cont.)

    Tasks with zero float are on a critical path.

    • Float greater than zero is an indication of how

    much this task can slip from its earliest date before

    it also becomes critical path.• Having multiple critical paths is very bad — any

    slippage of any activity on any of the critical paths

    will delay the project completion. Or, in other

    words, Murphy has more places to strike.

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    Critical Path Method

    • This technique, by identifying the critical path(s),

    emphasizes which tasks will affect overall

    execution time of the project if they slip (or finish

    early).• This technique also allows tracking of progress

    versus a baseline to determine if the overall

     project is on track.

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    Critical Path Method Example

    • A recruiting event is planned at a university.

    • To be successful, it is necessary to do thefollowing: –  Reserve the facility — 6 weeks

     –  Obtain brochures and other giveaways — 2 weeks

     –  Arrange personnel — 4 weeks

     –  Hold the event — 1 week

     –  Select candidates — 1 week

     –  Follow up with appropriate candidates — 1 week

    Let‘s map out the network diagram. 

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    Critical Path Method Example

    • The network diagram:

    Reserve facility

    (6 weeks)

    Get brochures, etc.

    (2 weeks)

    Arrange Personnel

    (4 weeks)

    Start

    Hold event

    (1 week)

    Select Candidates

    (1 week)

    Follow Up

    (1 week)

    Done

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early Start Early

    Finish

    Reserve

    Facility

    6

    ObtainBrochures

    2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4

    Hold Event 1

    Select

    Candidates

    1

    Follow Up 1

    Early start is

    the latest of

    the

     predecessoractivities‘

    early finishes

    Early finish is

    the early start

     plus the

    duration

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early Start Early

    Finish

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0

    Obtain

    Brochures

    2 0

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0

    Hold Event 1

    Select

    Candidates

    1

    Follow Up 1

    These items

    have no

     predecessors,so they can

    start

    immediately

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early Start Early

    Finish

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1

    Select

    Candidates

    1

    Follow Up 1

    +

    ++

    =

    ==

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early Start Early

    Finish

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6

    Select

    Candidates

    1

    Follow Up 1

    The latest‗early

    finish‘ date

    of a

     predecessor

    is the ‗early

    start‘ date

    of the

    successor

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early Start Early

    Finish

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1

    Follow Up 1

    + =

    Repeat

    through the

    chart

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early Start Early

    Finish

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8

    Follow Up 1 8 9

    + =

    + =

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8

    Follow Up 1 8 9

    Late Start

    = Late

    Finish -

    Duration

    Earliest

    late start of

    thesuccessor

    tasks

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9

    The late finishis the latest

    time a task can

    finish without

    slipping the

     project.

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8

    9 - 1 = 8

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8 8

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4

    Hold Event 1 6 7

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8 8 7

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8

    8 - 1 = 7

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6 6 0

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2 6 4

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4 6 2

    Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8 8 7

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6 6 0

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2 6 4

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4 6 2

    Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8 8 7

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8

    Float (or Slack) = Late Finish –  

    Early Finish

    = Late Start –  Early Start

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6 6 0 0

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2 6 4 4

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4 6 2 2

    Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6 0

    Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8 8 7 0

    Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8 0

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    CPM Example (continued)

    Task Duration Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    Reserve

    Facility

    6 0 6 6 0 0

    ObtainBrochures

    2 0 2 6 4 4

    Arrange

    Personnel

    4 0 4 6 2 2

    Hold Event 1 6 7 7 6 0Select

    Candidates

    1 7 8 8 7 0Follow Up 1 8 9 9 8 0

    Tasks with zerofloat are on the

    critical path. If they

    slip, the project

    completion slips.

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    Critical Path Method Example

    Reserve facility

    (6 weeks)

    Get brochures, etc.

    (2 weeks)

    Arrange Personnel

    (4 weeks)

    Start

    Hold event

    (1 week)

    Select Candidates

    (1 week)

    Follow Up

    (1 week)

    Done

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    PERT (continued)

    • PERT assumes a probability distribution for

     possible durations.

    • As a practical matter, PERT uses optimistic,

     pessimistic, and most-likely durations as inputs tothe calculation.

     –  Best way to get these estimates is simply to talk with

     people who have completed similar projects.

    PERT-type algorithms then use a weighted

    average duration.

    6

    ) _ *4(   c pessimistilikelymost optimisticduration

     

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    Examples

    • Assume we‘re in charge of building the newVisteon headquarters.

     –  We have a series of high-level tasks and we‘ve

    identified their precedence relationships.

     –  We have also determined what a best-case, realistic,

    and worst-case duration for each step is.

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    Examples (cont.)

    Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case

    duration

    Likely

    Duration

    Worst-case

    Duration

    Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Std. Dev

    (Worst –  

    Best) / 6

    A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years

    B Design

     building

    A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years

    C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years

    G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years

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    Examples (cont.)

    Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case

    duration

    Likely

    Duration

    Worst-case

    Duration

    Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Std. Dev

    (Worst –  

    Best) / 6

    A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr.

    B Design

     building

    A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years

    C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years

    G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years

    87.06

    275.0*42.0

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    Examples (cont.)

    Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case

    duration

    Likely

    Duration

    Worst-case

    Duration

    Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Std. Dev

    (Worst –  

    Best) / 6

    A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr.

    B Design

     building

    A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years 1.58 yr.

    C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.13 yr.

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years 0.4 yr.

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.28 yr.

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years 0.88 yr.

    G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years 0.48 yr.

    Completing

    the column.

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    Exercise

    Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case

    duration

    Likely

    Duration

    Worst-case

    Duration

    Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Std. Dev

    (Worst –  

    Best) / 6

    A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr.

    B Design

     building

    A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years 1.58 yr.

    C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.13 yr.

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years 0.4 yr.

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.28 yr.

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years 0.88 yr.

    G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years 0.48 yr.

    Exercise: Draw the network diagram and find

    the critical path.

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    Exercise—Network Diagram

    Select Site

    ObtainPermits

    ArrangeFinancing

    PayContractors

    DesignBuilding

    ContractBuilders

    BuildHQ

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    Exercises—Critical Path

    Task ID Description Predecessors Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Early Start Early

    Finish

    Late Finish Late Start Float

    A Select Site none 0.87 yr. 0 0.87 .87 0 0

    B Design

     building

    A 1.58 yr. 0.87 2.45 2.45 0.87 0

    C Obtain

     permits

    B 0.13 yr. 2.45 2.58 2.85 2.72 0.27

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.4 yr. 2.45 2.85 2.85 2.45 0

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.28 yr. 2.45 2.73 2.85 2.57 0.12

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.88 yr. 2.85 3.73 3.73 2.85 0

    G Pay

    contractors

    F 0.48 yr. 3.73 4.21 4.21 3.73 0

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    Exercises—Critical Path

    Task ID Description Predecessors Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Early Start Early

    Finish

    Late Finish Late Start Float

    A Select Site none 0.87 yr. 0 0.87 .87 0 0

    B Design

     building

    A 1.58 yr. 0.87 2.45 2.45 0.87 0

    C Obtain

     permits

    B 0.13 yr. 2.45 2.58 2.85 2.72 0.27

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.4 yr. 2.45 2.85 2.85 2.45 0

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.28 yr. 2.45 2.73 2.85 2.57 0.12

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.88 yr. 2.85 3.73 3.73 2.85 0

    G Pay

    contractors

    F 0.48 yr. 3.73 4.21 4.21 3.73 0

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    Exercise—Critical Path

    Select Site

    ObtainPermits

    ArrangeFinancing

    PayContractors

    DesignBuilding

    ContractBuilders

    BuildHQ

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    Examples (cont.)

    • From the exercise, the overall duration is the sum

    of the expected durations on the critical path.

     –  Overall duration = 0.87 + 1.58 + 0.4 + 0.88 + 0.48 =

    4.21 years.

    • To determine the variability in the critical path

    estimate, we assume that the durations of each task

    are statistically independent of the durations of theothers.

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    Examples (cont.)

    • Because variances (2) of independent random

    events are additive,

    • Variance is the square of the standard deviation,

    which, for each event, is calculated as:

     path taskscriticalall

    2

    task 

    2

     projectoverall      

    6

     _  _    durationoptimisticdurationc Pessimisti     

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    Examples (cont.)

    Task ID Description Predecessors Best-case

    duration

    Likely

    Duration

    Worst-case

    Duration

    Weighted

    Average

    Duration

    Std. Dev

    (Worst –  

    Best) / 6

    A Select Site none 0.2 years 0.75 years 2 years 0.87 yr. 0.3 yr.

    B Design

     building

    A 1 year 1.5 years 2.5 years 1.58 yr. 0.25 yr.

    C Obtain permits B 0.1 years 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.13 yr. 0.03 yr

    D Contract

     builders

    B 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.5 years 0.4 yr. 0.03 yr.

    E Arrange

    financing

    B 0.1 years 0.3 years 0.4 years 0.28 yr. 0.05 yr.

    F Build

    headquarters

    C, D, E 0.7 years 0.9years 1.0 years 0.88 yr. 0.05 yr.

    G Pay contractors F 0.3 years 0.4 years 1.0 years 0.48 yr. 0.12 yr.

    Filling inthe column

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    Examples (cont.)

    • Because variances (2) of independent randomevents are additive,

     path taskscriticalall

    2

    task 

    2

     projectoverall       

    41.0

    17.0

    12.005.003.025.03.0

     projectoverall

    2

     projectoverall

    222222

     projectoverall

      

      

      

     Note: Be careful to add the variances, not the standard deviations.

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    Examples (cont.)

    • With the expected value and standard deviation of

    the critical path, one can use basic statistics to

    determine the probability that a project will be

    completed within a certain length of time. – We‘ll cover Continuous Distributions in Week Two. 

     – We‘ll practice this application in Week Four. 

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    Compression

    • Compression involves finding ways to shorten theduration of a project without changing its scope.

     –  Crashing: Compressing timing by looking at cost and

    schedule tradeoffs to determine how to reduce the most

    time for the least money.

     –  Fast tracking: Doing activities in parallel that are

    normally done sequentially. This reduces timing at a

    significant risk of rework.

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    Crashing

    • By spending extra money to reduce timing oncritical path items, overall project completion

    timing can be reduced.

    For purposes of the exam, it will be necessary toknow the cost per unit time to crash each activity.

    ID Predecessors Normal Time Crash Time Cost per

    Week to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

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    Crashing (cont.)

    Questions asked typically include:Project cost and duration without crashing.

    Project cost and duration at maximum crashing.

    Project cost and duration for minimum cost project.

    For non-crash situations, the critical path analysis

    will give project duration, and the cost per unit

    time of the project can be used to determine its

    total cost.

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    Example—no crashing

    • Assume it costs $15,000 per week for a given project. Also, assume the information below.

    Find the non-crashed duration and cost.

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

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    Example—Network Diagram

    A

    B

    C

    D

    E

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    Example—no crashing

    • Duration is 23 weeks without crashing.

    • Cost is $15,000 per week x 23 weeks = $345,000

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    Crashing

    For a maximum crashing situation, it is necessary todetermine which critical path task has the least crash cost

     per unit time.

    This task is crashed to the maximum it can be until the critical path

    changes.

    If the critical path has not changed, the next least expensive crash

    cost on the critical path is chosen and the above step is repeated.

    If the critical path changes, the new critical paths are identified.

    The least expensive crash costs for each critical path are identified.

    These are reduced to the point the critical path changes. Note thatif one task is on both critical paths, it is not counted twice when

    tallying crash costs.

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    Crashing (cont.)

    This continues until no further crashing is possible

    for items on the critical path(s). The result is the

    maximum crash condition.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    • Find the maximum crash duration and cost for the prior example.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Normal

    Time

    Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    A 4 weeks 0 4 4 0 0B 5 weeks 4 9 9 4 0

    C 3 weeks 4 7 15 12 8

    D 6 weeks 9 15 15 9 0

    E 8 weeks 15 23 23 15 0

    Identify Critical

    Path

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    Example—Max Crash.

    A

    B

    C

    D

    E

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    The least cost critical path

    item to crash is D

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    D can be crashed up to 2

    weeks.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Normal

    Time

    Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    A 4 weeks 0 4 4 0 0

    B 5 weeks 4 9 9 4 0

    C 3 weeks 4 7 15 12 8

    D 6 weeks 9 15 15 9 0

    E 8 weeks 15 23 23 15 0

    There is eight weeks of float on all of the

    non-critical path items, so we know the

    critical path will not change if we shortedtask D by 2 weeks.

    T k D i h d Th i i l h d ‘

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors Time CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    Task D is crashed. The critical path doesn‘t

    change. We find the next least expensive

    critical path item to crash. This is task A.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors Time CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    A can be crashed up to 3 weeks.

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    Example—Max Crash.

    A

    B

    C

    D

    E

    A is on all the paths, so

    crashing it will not change

    the critical path.

    T k A i h d 3 k W fi d th

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors Time CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 1 week 1 week

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    Task A is crashed 3 weeks.. We find the

    next least expensive critical path item to

    crash. This is task B.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors Time CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 1 week 1 week

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    Task B can be crashed up to 3 weeks.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Normal

    Time

    Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    A 1 week 0 1 1 0 0

    B 5 weeks 1 6 6 1 0

    C 3 weeks 1 4 10 7 6

    D 4 weeks 6 10 10 6 0

    E 8 weeks 10 18 18 10 0

    The only non-critical path task has 6 weeks of

    float, so crashing task B will not change the

    critical path.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors Time CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 1 week 1 week

    B A 2 weeks 2 weeks

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    Task B is fully crashed. The next least

    expensive task on the critical path is Task E,

    which can be crashed up to 5 weeks.

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    Example—Max Crash.

    A

    B

    C

    D

    E

    E is on all the paths, so

    crashing it will not change

    the critical path.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    ID Predecessors Time CrashTime

    Cost perWeek to

    Crash

    A none 1 week 1 week

    B A 2 weeks 2 weeks

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 3 weeks 3 weeks

    Task E is crashed as much as possible. Theonly task that is able to be crashed now is

    task C, which is not on the critical path. We

    are at the maximum crash condition.

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    • Our project duration is now calculated at 10weeks.

    • Our project crash costs are:Task Weeks Crashed Cost per time to

    Crash

    Total Cost

    A 3 $8,000 $24,000

    B 3 $10,000 $30,000

    D 2 $3,500 $7,000

    E 5 $25,000 $125,000

    TOTAL: $186,000

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    Example—Maximum crashing

    • The crashing costs were $186,000. This is addedto our ongoing project costs.

    • Ongoing project costs = 10 weeks duration x

    $15,000 per week = $150,000

    • Our total project cost was $336,000.

    •  Note that this amount may be more or less than the

    ‗normal‘ project duration costs. 

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    Crashing—Minimum cost

    To determine the minimum cost project, an

    iterative approach is used.

    The premise of this technique is that ongoing costsof the project ($x/month) are more than some of

    the costs to crash tasks ($y/month). By selectively

    identifying the tasks that reduce total cost, the

     project cost is optimized.

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    Crashing (continued.)

    Procedure for the least cost project:1. Identify all of the critical paths.

    2. Identify the tasks on the critical path(s) that have a lowercrash cost than the ongoing cost of the project.

    3. Choose the least crash cost task(s) that reduce all of thecritical paths (and therefore the project). The total crashcost (per unit time) of these must be less than the ongoing

     project cost. If not, no further cost reductions are possible.

    4. Crash them until they can no longer be crashed or untilthe critical path changes.

    5. Repeat steps 2 through 5.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    • Using the prior example, find the minimum costduration. How much does this cost?

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    The least cost critical path

    item to crash is D

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    It can be crashed 2 weeks, and the

    critical path (based on the last

    exercise) will not change.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 6 weeks 4 weeks $3,500

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    With an ongoing project cost of $15,000 per week, any crash

    in Task D (as long as Task D remains on the critical path)

    will reduce total cost.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    D is crashed as much as possible. The

    next least expensive critical path item

    is Task A.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 4 weeks 1 week $8,000

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    From the prior exercise, we know the critical path

    will not change if task A is crashed. As $8,000

    crash cost is less than the $15,000 ongoing costs,

    we crash task A as much as possible.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 1 week 1 week

    B A 5 weeks 2 weeks $10,000

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    Task B‘s crash costs are less than the ongoing

     project costs, so it is crashed as much as possible.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Predecessors NormalTime

    CrashTime

    Cost perTime to

    Crash

    A none 1 week 1 week

    B A 2 weeks 2 weeks

    C A 3 weeks 2 weeks $1,000

    D B 4 weeks 4 weeks

    E C and D 8 weeks 3 weeks $25,000

    The only remaining critical path item is task E,

    which has a crash cost higher than the ongoing

    cost of the project. Therefore, no further costreductions are possible on this project.

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    Example—Minimum cost

    ID Normal

    Time

    Early

    Start

    Early

    Finish

    Late

    Finish

    Late

    Start

    Float

    A 1 week 0 1 1 0 0

    B 2 weeks 1 3 3 1 0

    C 3 weeks 1 4 7 4 3

    D 4 weeks 3 7 7 3 0

    E 8 weeks 7 15 15 7 0

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    Example—Minimum cost

    • The crashing costs were $61,000. This is added toour ongoing project costs.

    • Ongoing project costs = 15 weeks duration x

    $15,000 per week = $225,000

    • Our total project cost was $286,000 (versus

    $345,000 for the non-crashed project).

    •  Note that more complex examples will result in

    multiple critical paths.

    P j M

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    Project Management

    • That concludes the section on ProjectManagement.

    • Any questions?

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    Project Value

    • Evaluation of a project must take account of the―time value of money.‖

    • The premise behind ‗time value of money‘ is that

    $1 today is worth more than $1 tomorrow.

    • Why?

     –  Inflation.

     –  Lost investment opportunity.

    P j t V l ( t )

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    Project Value (cont.)

    • To account for this, a discount factor is applied tomoney we will receive (or spend) in the future.

    This discount factor is usually called the ‗rate of

    return‘ and is analogous to the interest rate on a

    loan or deposit.

    • Example: If the interest rate r is 6% per annum

    and we will receive $1000 in one year, then the

    value of this in today‘s dollars is: 

    40.939$

    06.1

    1000

    1

    1000$ todayValue  

    P j t V l ( t )

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    Project Value (cont.)

    • Terms – Rate of return is also called ‗cost of capital‘.

    • An organization‘s established ‗hurdle rate‘ may also be used in

    the same calculations.

    • The terms TARR (Time Adjusted Rate of Return) and IRR(Internal Rate of Return) are also used.

     –  Value today is generally called the present value or net

     present value of the decision.

     – Payback period (or simply ‗payback‘) is the length of

    time it will take the company to recoup its investment.

    P j t V l D i i M ki

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    Project Value—Decision Making

    • Typical Decision making critieria1. If a project‘s TARR is greater than an established

    ‗hurdle rate‘, the project is approved.

    2. If the project‘s net present value is greater than zero,

    the project is approved.3. If the project‘s payback is less than some period of

    time, the project is approved.

    P j t V l ( t)

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    Project Value (cont)

    • Many projects result in a stream of savings, ratherthan just a ‗one time‘ save. 

     –  Example: Improving the process saves us $0.43 for

    each fuel tank produced.

     –  Example: Negotiating a lower price for our computerservices saves us $500,000 per year.

    • Each year‘s savings get discounted back into

    today‘s dollars to determine the value of the

     project.

       

    321

    Savings3Year

    1

    Savings2Year

    1

    Savings1YeartodayValue

    r r r 

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    P j t V l ( t)

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    Project Value (cont)

    • The NPV formula for an infinite stream of payments of amount ‗A‘ given an investment and

    a rate of return ‗r‘ is: 

    • In our example, the net present value is:

    A Investment- NPV  

    000,000,210.0000,300000,000,1 NPV  

    P j t V l ( t)

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    Project Value (cont)

    • For a finite stream of payments, the Excel function NPV() can be used.

    • The syntax of this is NPV(rate, value, value,

    value)

    • Example: If you invest $10,000 today and receive

    annual payments of $8,000 for three years, what is

    the net present value of this transaction, assuming

    a 6% cost of capital? present value = -10000 + NPV(0.06, 8000,8000,8000)

     present value = $11,384.10 

    Project Val e (cont)

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    Project Value (cont)

    • Given a stream of payments, it is also possible tocalculate the internal rate of return.

    • For a stream of n payments, one simply solves

    for the roots of an nth order polynomial.

    Or… 

    • One uses the IRR() function in Excel to do it for

    you.

    • The syntax for IRR is (value, value, …, guess). Note that the guess is optional. 

    Project Value (cont)

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    Project Value (cont)

    • Example: –  Assume investing $1,000,000 for a new machine lowers

     piece prices sufficiently that the company saves$250,000 per year. Also assume that the product has a 5year life (and no salvage value for the machine). What

    is the internal rate of return for this investment?

    internal rate of return = IRR(-1000000,250000,250000,250000,250000,250000)

    internal rate of return = 0.079 or 7.9%

     – If this was greater than or equal to the organization‘shurdle rate, this project would be considered a goodinvestment.

    Project Value (cont)

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    Project Value (cont)

    • The third Excel function that is useful is the payment function, PMT(). The PMT function

    takes as input the present value, the rate of

    return, and the number of payments. It outputs

    the periodic payment that results.

    • Syntax: Payment PMT = (rate, nper, pv) where

    rate is the rate of return, nper is the number of

     periods, and pv is the present value.

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    Rolled Throughput Yield

    The Classical Perspective of Yield

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    0.95

    0.97

    0.99

    1.01

    1 4 7 10 13 16 19

    Y = SU

    Where:

    Y = Yield

    S = Number of Units that PassU = Number of Units Tested

    Where:

    Y = Yield

    S = Number of Units that Pass

    U = Number of Units Tested

    Y.Y.

    Time PeriodTime Period

    The Classical Perspective of Yield

    Traditionally, the

    output  of a process is

    compared to a

     pass/fail criteria to

    determine yield.

    Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge

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    Test Room Fai lu re RateTest Room F ailur e Rate

    Data: Jan 92 through Dec 92

     Data Courtesy of Asea Brown Boveri , Ltd .

     Each data point is a factory

    Y.FT = 1- Failure Rate

    Profit

    Margin

    Profit

    Margin

    0

    .01

    .02

    .03

    .04

    .05

    .06

    .07

    .08

    .09

    -.03 0 .025 .05 .075 .1 .125 .15 .175 .2 .225

    Failure Rate

       S  c  r  a  p   R  a   t  e

    S… 

    0.01

    .02

    .03

    .04

    .05

    .06

    .07

    .08

    .09

    -.03 0 .025 .05 .075 .1 .125 .15 .175 .2 .225

    Failure Rate

       S  c  r  a  p   R  a   t  e

    S… 

    Test Room Fail ure RateTest Room F ailur e Rate

    Scrap

    Rate

    Scrap

    Rate

     Data Courtesy of Asea Brown Boveri , Ltd .

     Each data point is a factory

    Y.FT = 1- Failure Rate

    Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge

    Intuition would tell us that yield should be correlated to profitmargin and scrap rate…but the data do not show this. 

    First Time Yield

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    First Time Yield

    • First time yield (also called first pass yield or firsttime through) is another measurable. First time

    yield does not count rework.

    Finished

    Product

    85

    Units

    A100

    Units

    20 Units Rework

    15 Units

    Scrap

    “Hidden 

    Factory” 

    Non-Value

    Added

    Activities

    20 Units

    65 Units

    First Time Yield is Process Yield Without Rework…

    Rework is the „Hidden Factory‟ 

    Traditional yield

    would be85/100 or 85%.

    First-time yield

    is only 65%

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    Rolled Throughput Yield

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    RightFirstTime

    Rev. 1.1 1/99

    Receive parts from Supplier

    45,000 PPM wasted

    46,652 PPM wasted

    Following Receiving

    Inspection and Line Fall-out...

    From Machining Operations

    At Test Stands on

    first attempt

    113,617 parts per millionwasted opportunities

    21,965 PPM wasted

    95.5% Yield

    97% Yield

    94.4% Yield

    YRT = .955*.97*.94.4 = 87.4%

    Rolled Throughput Yield

    Traditional Yield View Exercise

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    What’s the Yield? 

     _________%

    100 units

    85 units

    Traditional Yield View—Exercise

    Simple First Time Yield = Traditional Yield

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    Simple First Time Yield = Traditional Yield

    • What‘s the Yield? 

    • 1 x .9 x .97 x .98

    • 85 %

    100 documents

    85 units

    Scrap 10

    Scrap 3

    Scrap 2

    100

    90

    87

    100/100=1

    90/100=.9

    87/90=.97

    85/87=.98

    First Time Yield (YFT) Gives Credit Only for Product not scrapped the First Time

    Rolled Throughput Yield

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    Product A is Produced in 3 Consecutive (Independent) Steps

    Step 3

    YFT = 90%

    Step 1 Step 2

    Rolled Throughput Yield is the probability that anygiven part will go through the process with zerodefects (no rework)

    YFT = 80% YFT = 70%

    A

    Rolled Throughput Yield = Product of the First Pass  Yields

    YRT = (.80)(.70)(.90) = .504 = 50.4%

    Rolled Throughput Yield

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    Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge

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    Verify

    Rework

    Scrap

    Product

    N s

    Classic Yield =s

    NRolled Throughput Yield = P(Op1)*P(Op2)…. 

    = e -dpu

    Operation

    The Hidden Factory and Rolled Yield

    Six Sigma Breakthrough Challenge

    Rolled Throughput Yieldcan also be stated in terms

    of average defects per unit

    (dpu)

    Rolled Throughput Yield

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    99% 99% 98%

    Op 1 OutputOp 2x =

    Without Inspection or Test Without Inspection or Test Without Inspection or Test

    Process Centered Process Centered

    ORORY

    RT= e  –   DPU

    There are two operations (OPs) for a unit, and each OP has a 0.01probability of a defect. Therefore:

    DPU = 2 OPs per unit x .01 defect per OP= .02 defects per unit

    e-.02

    = .98019or 98%

    Rolled Throughput Yield

    Complexity

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    # of Parts (Steps) ± 3 ± 4 ± 5 ± 61 93.32% 99.379% 99.9767% 99.99966

    7 61.63 95.733 99.839 99.9976

    10 50.08 93.96 99.768 99.9966

    20 25.08 88.29 99.536 99.993240 6.29 77.94 99.074 99.9864

    60 1.58 68.81 98.614 99.979680 0.40 60.75 98.156 99.9728

    100 0.10 53.64 97.70 99.966150 -- 39.38 96.61 99.949

    200 -- 28.77 95.45 99.932

    300 -- 15.43 93.26 99.898400 -- 8.28 91.11 99.864

    500 -- 4.44 89.02 99.830600 -- 2.38 86.97 99.796

    700 -- 1.28 84.97 99.762

    800 -- 0.69 83.02 99.729900 -- 0.37 81.11 99.695

    1000 -- 0.20 79.24 99.661

    1200 -- 0.06 75.88 99.593

    3000 -- -- 50.15 98.98517000 -- -- 0.02 94.384

    38000 -- -- -- 87.880

    70000 -- -- -- 78.820

    150000 -- -- -- 60.000

    (Distribution Shifted ± 1.5 )

    Process

    Capability

    Complexity(part count or process steps)

    Rolled

    Yield

    Complexity

    4 capability in each of 100 steps produces a rolled throughput yield of

    .99379 to the 100th power = 0.5254 or 52.54%

    Complexity

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    The GOAL is to REDUCE the number of opportunities

    andconcurrently INCREASE the capability of each opportunity that remains.

    NO!

    Is Complexity better?

    Complexity

    Formulas to Know

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    DPU (Defects per unit) = Defects / Unit

    TOP (Total Opportunities) = Units * opportunities

    DPO (Defects per Opportunity) = Defects / TOPProbability the Opportunity is defective = DPO

    Pr(ND) (Probability the Opportunity is Not defective)

    Pr(ND) = 1 - DPO

    Rolled Yield ] (The likelihood that any give unit of product willcontain 0 defects)

    YRT= Pr(ND) # of OpportunitiesYRT = Pr(ND) * Pr(ND) * Pr(ND) *......Pr(ND) n

    ] Recommend using when you know the yield for each process element or opportunity

    Formulas to Know

    Calculating Transactional Yield

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    Assumption1 unit = 1 invoiceThe invoice has one process step that is CTQ for the customer :1) Total invoice price = customer’s PO price 

    •  One opportunity for a defect exists for each invoice.•  There is one opportunity for a defect in the invoicing process

    To evaluate actual invoicing performance:

    Process # of # # Opp YieldImpacting Units of of for for

    CTQ Produced Defects Successes Process Process

    Ready for Pick Up 500 35 465 1 0.93

    YRT= .93

    Calculating Transactional Yield

    Calculating Transactional Yield

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    Assumptions:

    1 Unit = 1 Invoice

    Invoicing to the customer has 3 process steps that are CTQ’s for the customer  1) Correct Quantity2) Correct Price3) Invoice Received in a Timely Manner

    •  3 opportunities for a defect exist for each invoice.•  There is one opportunity for a defect in each process

    To evaluate actual invoicing performance:

    YRT = .93 x .7 x .85 = .55

    Process # of # # Opp YieldImpacting Units of of for for

    CTQ Produced Defects Successes Process Process

    Correct Quantity 500 465 1 0.93Correct Price 500 350 1 0.7Invoice Received On Time 500 425 1 0.85

    260

    35150

    75

    Calculating Transactional Yield

    Hidden Factory

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    Hidden Factory

    What is it?• Unnecessary activities—We will cover more on this in the Lean Techniques Module.• Rework loops.

    Learning Exercise

     ABC Electric has demanded that the quality and timeliness of the invoices received into the Accounts PayableDepartment be at a 6  level. The CTQ elements for ABC Electric are an invoice where quantity and price matchthe PO that was submitted. Also, the invoice must be received by ABC Electric within 3 days of shipping forreceiving purposes.

    On the following page are the steps that your invoicing department has put in place to reach the level ofquality the customer is expecting.

    Hidden Factory

    Hidden Factory

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    If no defects were in the system, which activities could be eliminated?

    How can defects on upstream steps affect downstream steps?

    Operator 1enters thequantity

    shipped into thedata entrysystem

    Operator 2inputs the priceof the Productinto the system

    The confirmationis check by

    Operator 2 foraccuracy

    Was the inputaccurate?

    Yes

    No

    Invoice

    Operator 3inspects invoice

    for accuracy

    Operator 3mails invoice

    to thecustomer

    Customerinspects invoice

    to determineaccuracy of theinvoice and if it

    was received ontime.

    Is pricecorrect?

    Yes

    No

    Does invoicemeet CTQ'S?

    Pay invoiceand chargea $10 penalty /

    invoice

    Pay invoice

    Yes

    No

    confirmation

    Hidden Factory

    Hidden Factory

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    If no defects were in the system, which activities could be eliminated?

    How can defects on upstream steps affect downstream steps?

    Operator 1enters thequantity

    shipped into thedata entrysystem

    Operator 2inputs the priceof the Productinto the system

    The confirmationis check by

    Operator 2 foraccuracy

    Was the inputaccurate?

    Yes

    No

    Invoice

    Operator 3inspects invoice

    for accuracy

    Operator 3mails invoice

    to thecustomer

    Customerinspects invoice

    to determineaccuracy of theinvoice and if it

    was received ontime.

    Is pricecorrect?

    Yes

    No

    Does invoicemeet CTQ'S?

    Pay invoiceand chargea $10 penalty /

    invoice

    Pay invoice

    Yes

    No

    confirmation

    Hidden Factory

    Defects and the Hidden Factory

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    Six Sigma is about identi fying/quantifyingand eliminating the H idden Factory through

    Defect Reduction and ul timately Design for 6 Sigma

    90% Yield After

    Inspection or Test

    Each defect must be detected, repaired and placed back

    in the process. This results in Wasted:

    •  Time

    •  Money

    •  Resources•  Floor Space

    Scrap

    Rework

    Hidden Factory

    NOT

    OK

    OperationInputs Inspect First TimeYield

    OK90%

    Customer Quality

    Defects and the Hidden Factory

    • This classic approach to

    calculating yield does not account

    for the hidden factory.

    Described below is any process that meets a customer need

    Rolled Throughput Yield Versus FirstTime Yield

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    Time Yield

    66%   90%

    ... why not?

    Scrap

    90%Customer Quality

    Rework

    Hidden FactoryNOTOK

     Yield AfterInspection or Test

    OperationInputs Inspect First Time Yield =

    OK

    ProcessA B C

    90% Yield

    90% Yield

    81 % 73 %

    Final TestD

    Using “final test (or first time) yield” ignores the hidden factory. Final test

    performance is a function of inspection & test not actual defect data.

    Rolled-Throughput Yield Classical First-Time Yield

    90% Yield

    66 %

    90% Yield

    Rolled Yield

    Six Sigma, Metrics andContinuous Improvement

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    Continuous Improvement

    •   Six Sigma is characterized by: –  defining critical business metrics

     –  tracking them

     –  improving them using proactive process improvement

    • Six Sigma‘s primary metric is Defects per Unit,

    which is directly related to Rolled Throughput

    Yield (Yrt)

    • Yrt = e-dpu

     • Cost of Poor Quality and Cycle Time

    (Throughput) are two other key metrics

    Cost of Poor Quality

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    Cos o oo Qua y

    Cost of (Poor) Quality

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    ( ) Q y

    • The ‗hidden factory‘ in any process is one key partof the cost of poor quality (COPQ).

     –  Direct cost to rework product.

     –  Cost of scrap (including disposal costs).

     –  Foregone throughput/productivity.

    • Hidden factory costs are insidious — they become

     part of the day-to-day business and go unnoticed.

    • Tracking COPQ is not easy with traditional costaccounting systems.

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    What is Cost of Poor Quality?

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    y

    • In addition to the direct costs associated with finding

    and fixing defects, ―Cost of Poor Quality‖ also

    includes: 

     –   The hidden cost of failing to meet customer expectations

    the first time

     –   The hidden opportunity for increased efficiency –   The hidden potential for higher profits

     –   The hidden loss in market share

     –   The hidden increase in production cycle time

     –   The hidden labor associated with ordering replacement

    material

    • In almost every company, the COPQ exceeds the

     profit margin.

    What is Cost of Poor Quality?

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    • Direct Costs of Failures –  Internal Failure

    • Costs associated with defects found BEFORE the customer receives a product or service

     –  External Failure

    • Costs associated with defects found AFTER the customer receives a product or service

    • Costs to Control or Avoid Failures –  Appraisal Cost

    • Costs associated with measuring, evaluating, or auditing products orservices to assure conformance to quality requirements

     –  Prevention Cost• Costs of activities specifically designed to prevent poor quality

    What is Cost of Poor Quality?

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    Optimum Quality Costs

    Total

    Quality

    CostsInternal &

    External

    Failure Costs

    Minimal COPQ

    Quality of Conformance, %0

    (100%

    Defective)

    Appraisal &

    Prevention

    Costs

    100

    (Zero

    Defects)

       C  o  s   t  p  e  r  g  o  o   d  u  n   i   t  o   f  p  r  o

       d  u  c   t

     

    The modern COPQ model depicted

    here shows failure costs going to zero

    at 100% conformance (zero defects).

    Accordingly, appraisal and prevention

    costs reach a maximum at zero defects.

    The total COPQ is obtained by adding

    the two sets of costs at a given

    conformance level. Adapted fromJuran‘s Quality Control Handbook  

    (p.4.19), by J.M. Juran and F.M. Gryna

    (Eds.), 1998, New York: McGray-Hill

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    “Traditional” Cost of Poor Quality 

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    • Customer Returns

    • Testing Costs

    • Inspection Costs

    • Scrap

    • Quality Rejects 

    4% of Visteon’s

    $18.5B in sales is

    $740M

    COPQ Data

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    Source: Journal for Tooling & Production. December, 1994.

    Manufacturing IndustryPoor Quality Cost

    asPercent of Sales

    Median Profitsas

    Percent of Sales

    4.3 7.1 2.34.4 7.0 1.2

    5.2 7.1 2.25.2 7.3 2.95.9 6.9 1.65.9 7.2 3.05.9 7.2 2.94.3 7.0 2.16.3 8.2 4.17.0 8.2 3.66.1 7.2 3.36.1 8.1 2.76.9 7.8 1.5

    Aluminum Extruded Products

    Steel Wire & Related Products

    Aluminum Die Castings

    Bolts, Nuts, Rivets & WashersFoundries: AluminumForgings-NonferrousMetal Stampings

    Automotive StampingsElectronic ComponentsIndustrial MachineryMetal-Cutting Machine ToolsMotor Vehicles, PartsPlastics ProductsScrew Machine Products 5.3 7.0 2.2

    Low High

    Waste, Spoilage, Rejects & Rework As Percent of Sales

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    COPQ Example: Operational

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    148© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • Air conditioningcondensers go

    through an end-of-

    line ‗mass

    spectrometer‘ leak

    check. Those thatfail are ‗bubble

    tested‘ in a dunk

    tank and repaired.

    Mass Spec

    TestingLeak? Pack and ship

    No

    Dunk tank test

    to find the leak

    Yes

    Find Leak?

    3rd try?

    No

    No

    Yes

    Scrap partYes

    Hidden

    Factory

    Repair 

    COPQ Example: Operational (cont’d) 

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    149© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • COPQ includes: –  Equipment, floor space, and personnel to dunk tank test.

     –  Equipment, floor space, and personnel to repair parts.

     –  Costs to move/handle the material, including costs of parts

    damaged during movement.

     –  Costs of extra dunnage to accommodate parts in the hiddenfactory.

     –  Costs of scrap condensers (net of reclaimed aluminum.)

     –  Lost production due to retest, including overtime costs to meet

    customer requirements.

     –  Other inventory carrying costs on product being reworked.

    COPQ Example: Transactional

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    150© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • A CPARS prototype tooling order has an incorrect buyer code. It is rejected back to the requisitioner,

    who must then spend time correcting and

    resubmitting.

     –  Costs include the time of the requisitioner, the buyer,and anyone else who handled the order.

     –  Other costs may accrue due to this delay:

    •  premium tooling funds to meet deadlines

    • delayed incorporation of material cost savings• overtime to test the prototypes and still meet timing

    Visteon Opportunities

    Vi t 4% f

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    Visteon 4% ofsales = $740 Million

    Visteon 20% of sales= $3.7 Billion

    VISTEON CONFIDENTIAL

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    Visteon COPQ Estimates

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    153© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • Items Related to QR‘s  $97.3M

    • Launch Costs $35M

    • Stop Ships/Field Actions $22.4M

    • Financial Controls $72.3M

    • Supplier spills/premium freight $40.5M

    • Plant QA $22.7M

    • Scrap and Excess Inventory $71.8M

    • Manufacturing Costs $361M

    • Equipment and Process Quality $95M

    • Other Support Costs $192M

    Total

    $1.01B

    Cost Element Estimated Annual Cost

    Visteon COPQ Estimates

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    154© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • Our material and equipment suppliers also have COPQ

    • This COPQ is included in the prices Visteon pays formaterial and equipment

     –   This COPQ is not shown in the $1B estimate

    • The $AVE program is our primary initiative for reducingCOPQ with our material and equipment suppliers

    • The $AVE program target is to reduce our costs by $1.2 B

    over three years

    Visteon COPQ Estimates

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    155© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • Another major category of COPQ is presently being paid by our OEM customers, and by consumers …the costs of replacing defective products in the field

    • A major portion of this category of COPQ iswarranty

     – Our major customer –  Ford –  presently pays more than$400 Million per year in warranty costs associated withVisteon products

    Visteon COPQ Estimates

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    156© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • If we add these three categories of COPQ, we can seea PARTIAL estimate of Visteon COPQ:

     –  Initial internal estimates: $1 Billion

     –  $AVE 3-year target: $1.2 Billion –  Annual warranty (partial): $0.4 Billion

    • Partial est. of Visteon COPQ: $2.6 Billion (14% ofsales)

    • So … how do we get the money? 

    How is Visteon Attacking COPQ?

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    157© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • Visteon Breakaway Improvement

    • Aggregated improvement measures (COPQ, Revenue)

    • Improvement Initiatives

    • Tools, Techniques, Processes

    Breakaway Objectives for COPQ

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    158© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    Cost of Poor Quality ~ $1850 M

       2   0   0   2   P  r  o   f   i   t  s

       V  o   l  u  m  e   /   E  x   d   h  a  n  g  e   /   P  r   i  c   i  n  g   /   E  c  o  n .

       I  n   f  o  r  m  a   t   i  o  n   T  e  c   h  n  o   l  o  g  y

       N  e  w   B  u  s   i  n  e  s  s   P  r  o   b  a   b   i   l   i   t  y

     

       M  a   t  e  r   i  a   l   E   f   f   i  c   i  e  n  c   i  e  s

     

       M  a  n  u   f  a  c   t  u  r   i  n  g   E   f   f   i  c   i  e  n  c   i  e  s

     

       R  e  s   t  r  u  c   t  u  r   i  n  g   S  a  v   i  n  g

     

       A   d  m

       i  n ,   S  e   l   l   i  n  g ,   M   k   t ,   &   E  n  g .

     

       E   f   f   i  c   i  e  n  c   i  e  s

       P  r   i  c  e  a   b   l  e   D  e  s   i  g  n

       P  r  o   f   i   t  a   b   i   l   i   t  y   G  a  p

       P  r  o  g  r  e  s  s   T  o   D  a   t  e

    COPQ Improvement Initiatives

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    159© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    •  $AVE Program

    •  Manufacturing Efficiencies

    •  Engineering/A&S Efficiencies

    •  TVA/TVM

     Note: $AVE, Manufacturing Efficiencies, and Engineering/A&S Efficiencies

    are internally driven initiatives. TVA/TVM is externally driven.

    How Does a COPQ Project Work?

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    160© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    • Scope/define the project

    • Trace the usage of resources –  Identify quality-related activities –  Determine costs associated with those activities

    •  Identify/prioritize specific improvementopportunities

    •  Initiate improvement projects

    •  Keep track of improvement projects –  Results as expected? –  Further opportunities?

    How Does a COPQ Project Work?

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    161© Visteon Corporation BB Mod #2 Program Management Rev 3.1 9/03.

    Does this method look familiar? 

    • Scope/define the project …  Define 

    • Trace the usage of resources …  Measure +

      Value Stream Map 

    • Identify/prioritize opportunities …  Analyze 

    • Initiate improvement projects …  Improve 

    • Keep track …  Control 

    How Does a COPQ Project Work?

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    • What tools and techniques can we use to get the money?

     – In house: Lean Six Sigma (DMAIC)

     – Supply base: $AVE

    Cost of Poor Quality

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    • Any questions?