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Modelling of Materials and Processes A review of activity and needs in the UK in response to the Technology Foresight exercise H.R. Shercliff Engineering Department Cambridge University June 1997 Cambridge University Engineering Department Technical Report CUED/C-MATS/TR243 Prepared for the Institute of Materials and Office of Science and Technology.

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Modelling of Materials

and ProcessesA review of activity and needs in the UK in

response to the Technology Foresight exercise

H.R. ShercliffEngineering Department

Cambridge University

June 1997

Cambridge UniversityEngineering Department

Technical ReportCUED/C-MATS/TR243

Prepared for the Institute of Materials andOffice of Science and Technology.

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Synopsis

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Contents

Synopsis i

Motivation for the Report i

Summary of Main Conclusions iiGeneral industrial and academic perspectives iiAspects of model building iiiNetworking ivEducation and training iv

Acknowledgements v

Contents vi

Section 1:Materials Modelling and Technology Foresight 1

1.1 Introduction 2

1.2 Materials and Foresight: the rôle of modelling 3General observations from Technology Foresight 3Sector highlights 3The Materials Panel Report 6Working Party on Aerospace Structural Materials 10EPSRC response 10Foresight Challenges in Materials 12European dimension 12

Section 2:Materials Modelling: General issues and needs 13

2.1 Introduction 13

2.2 Overview of issues in modelling materialsduring processing and in service 14Interpretation of "materials modelling" 14Modelling processing and modelling performance 15Appropriate modelling 16Aspects of collaboration in materials modelling 17A structured view of materials modelling 19

� � � �

2.3 Modelling: what is it for ? 19Integration of processing into design, and product tracking 20Modelling of standard tests 21Modelling versus experiment 21Simple models and whole process models 22Sensitivity analysis and validation 23

2.4 Modelling: identifying what is important 24Choice of modelling method 24Boundary conditions 26Classification of modelling 26

2.5 Data for Materials Modelling 27Boundary condition data 28Models limited by data availability 29Initiatives in processing data measurement 29

2.6 Scientific Developments in Materials Modelling 30Modelling of material microstructure 30Linking length scales and multi-physics modelling 32Atomistics and molecular modelling 34

2.7 Industrial take-up 35Problems with technology transfer to industry 36Modelling entry costs 37Modelling centres 38Networking 39

2.8 Education and training 40Materials modelling in university courses 41Industrial perspective 43

Section 3:Aspects of Materials Modelling in different materialand process sectors 45

3.1 Casting 46Introduction 46Shaped casting modelling 46Modelling centres 49Other casting processes 50Data 51Underlying materials science 51

3.2 Thermomechanical Processing of Metals 53Introduction 53Modelling status 54Heat treatment 58

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3.3 Joining, Surface Engineering, Laser Processing,Ceramics and Powder Processing 59Introduction 59Joining 59Surface engineering 61Laser processing 62Ceramics and powder processing 62

3.4 Polymers and Composites 64Modelling status: polymers 64Modelling status: composites 66

Section 4:Conclusions and Recommendations 69

Summary 69Critical aspects of modelling 70Industrial process modelling 70Academic modelling 72Technology transfer 73Computational aspects 73Data for modelling 74Education and training 75Carrying Foresight forward 75

Section 5:References 77

Appendix 79

List of people consulted 79

SECTION 1

Materials modellingand Technology

Foresight

4

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6

The Materials Panel Report

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à B U F H ^ ^ E J G C D E J G L Ä E M h E M M h H J H H F ` U D G U U F F A M Aà I ] H F T j A M E U J A J F M D A E J E J G E J B A M H D E A ^ L L j E H J j H _ M H j h J U ^ U G N E L Ä A J M E J G

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à B E j D U L M D T j M T D H A J F j U B Q U L E M E U J A D H j D E M E j A ^ M U T J F H D L M A J F E J G Q D U j H L L E J G A J FQ H D ` U D B A J j H E J L M D T j M T D A ^ B A M H D E A ^ L

à J H Ä L M D T j M T D A ^ B A M H D E A ^ L F U J Ç M j D H A M H J H Ä Q D U F T j M L W C T M B A N H J h A J j H H a E L M E J GQ D U F T j M L r M h H H B Q h A L E L L h U T ^ F C H U J E B Q D U K E J G M h H B A M H D E A ^ L A ^ D H A F N E J T L H

à A Q Q ^ E j A M E U J L U ` ` T J j M E U J A ^ B A M H D E A ^ L A D H B U D H F H K E j H È C A L H F È ^ H L L F H Q H J F H J M U J M h HF H M A E ^ H F Q h N L E j L U ` M h H B A M H D E A ^ L Ä E M h E J M h H F H K E j H L

à J H Ä ` T J j M E U J A ^ B A M H D E A ^ L b U D F H K E j H L C A L H F U J M h H B e F U D A Q E F ^ N ^ H A F M U J H ÄQ D U F T j M L b H R G R ^ A Q M U Q [ @ W B U C E ^ H È Q h U J H e

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � l � � �� . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � $ � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � ) � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � 2 3 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

7

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� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

É � � Â Ê � Ë ´ � ¹ � Ì � ¯ ® · � ² � ­ ¯ � � Í ­ � ° � Ê ­ Â �

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1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � -

Î M h H D H Ï A L C D U A F A G D H H B H J M M h A M j U ^ ^ A C U D A M E U J Ï E M h E J I ] A J F O T D U Q H E L J H j H L L A D N M UB H H M [ A J H ^ M A D G H M L R S h E L E L A C L U ^ T M H ^ N M h H j A L H E J M h H j U J M H a M U ` B U F H ^ ^ E J G W M h U T G hL U B H A D G T H M h A M Ð Ñ Ò Ó Ô Ð Õ Ô Ö j U ^ ^ A C U D A M E U J E L B U D H A j j T D A M H R

Î M h H I ] Ï A L D H j k U J H F M U C H A ^ H A F E J G H F G H j U T J M D N E J K A D E U T L B A M H D E A ^ L A D H A LE J j ^ T F E J G B U F H ^ ^ E J G U ` ^ E ` H Q D H F E j M E U J R [ D U j H L L B U F H ^ ^ E J G Ï A L J U M B H J M E U J H F W C T MM h H D H E L J U D H A L U J M U L T L Q H j M M h A M M h H I ] E L ^ A j k E J G E J M h E L A D H A R

� � � * � � � � � / � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � - � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � < � � � � � � � � � � . � �

# � � � � � � � � � # � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � < � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

× � � � � � Ø � ³ � � � ­ ¯ ­ Ø · Ù É ¯ � � ® �

� � � ) � � � � � � � � � � * Ú , � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

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Î B E j D U L M D T j M T D H A J F j U B Q U L E M E U J A D H j D E M E j A ^ M U T J F H D L M A J F E J G Q D U j H L L E J G A J FQ H D ` U D B A J j H E J L M D T j M T D A ^ B A M H D E A ^ L

Î j U J M E J T U T L F H K H ^ U Q B H J M U ` H a E L M E J G B A M H D E A ^ L r E J M h H Q A L M M h E L h A L J U M C H H J Ï E F H ^ NQ U Q T ^ A D Ï E M h T J E K H D L E M E H L A J F ` T J F E J G C U F E H L W C T M M h E L L E M T A M E U J E L j h A J G E J G R

8

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ø Q D E J j E Q A ^ M h D T L M L ù D H F T j H F M D E A ^ ú A J F ú H D D U D E J H a Q H D E B H J M A ^ û U D k W ` A L M H D _ j h H A Q H DB A M H D E A ^ F H K H ^ U Q B H J M R

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ø Q D U j H L L B U F H ^ ^ E J G b B A M H D E A ^ L H J G E J H H D E J G A L Q H j M L e ù J H H F H F A j D U L L A ^ ^ B A J T ` A j M T D E J GE J F T L M D N b D A û B A M H D E A ^ H a M D A j M E U J W ` U D B E J G W ` A C D E j A M E U J W B A j h E J E J G W L T D ` A j HH J G E J H H D E J G e r h E G h þ T A ^ E M N F A M A B H A L T D H B H J M A J F B H M D U ^ U G N j A Q A C E ^ E M N J H H F H Fb A J F E J F A J G H D U ` C H E J G H D U F H F e r ^ E J k L û E M h F H L E G J Q D U j H L L E B Q U D M A J M R

ø Q D E J j E Q A ^ M h D T L M L ù E B Q D U K H F þ T A ^ E M N A J F j U J L E L M H J j N b A M ^ H A L M A L E B Q U D M A J M A L B H A JQ D U Q H D M E H L e W D H F T j H F ^ H A F M E B H L A J F B A J T ` A j M T D E J G j U L M L R

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ø M H L M E J G A J F H K A ^ T A M E U J ú F A M A J H H F L U ` B A J T ` A j M T D E J G A D H K H D N ^ A D G H b A J F L h U T ^ FE J j ^ T F H M h H J H H F L U ` B A M H D E A ^ L B U F H ^ ^ E J G e

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� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " ) � � � % � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � & � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " + � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

Carrying Foresight forward

+ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( � � � � � � � � � � � � - � � � � 2 3 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2 3 <

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2 3 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � � � ( � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( ) � * + "

7 6

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � " 1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � -� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ( � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � < � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "1 � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

� � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � �/ � � � � % / � � � / � � � � � � $ � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

+ � � � � � � � � � � / � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � %� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 2 3 � � � � � � � � � / � � � � + , � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � " 1

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � % � � � � �� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

7 7

SECTION 5

References

C L h C N � R ] R [ h N L E j A ^ B U F H ^ ^ E J G U ` B A M H D E A ^ L Q D U C ^ H B L R ^ _ ` a b c _ d e f g c a h g a _ h i j a g k h l d l m n D b Y eb Z o o Y e Z c Y � Z Z Z R

X A E ^ H N @ R W @ h U � [ R W @ D U L L � R W ] D N H D o R A J F [ H D E j ^ H U T L ] R � T ^ M E Q h N L E j L B U F H ^ ^ E J G U ` M h HB H M A ^ L j A L M E J G Q D U j H L L R p b l g q r l n q f l g q s Z p Y W Q Q R Z p o � Z D f b Z o o f e R

X h A F h H L h E A s R ] R P R s R W � A j k A N P R t R @ R A J F V K H J L L U J 5 R � O R � B Q A j M M U T G h J H L L U ` @ � � J L M H H ^A D j � H ^ F L � X A N H L E A J J H T D A ^ J H M � U D k A J A ^ N L E L R ^ _ ` a b c _ d e f g c a h g a _ h i j a g k h l d l m n Z Z b Z c e WQ Q R Z c Z f � Z c p Z b Z o o p e R

X D A M ^ A J F P R W A D U J G u R W V h H D j ^ E ` ` s R � R W � N h D n R � R A J F S � v M M A V R n K H D K E H � � � U F H ^ ^ E J G U `[ D H j E Q E M A M E U J E J � J F T L M D E A ^ [ D U j H L L E J G R s g ` _ ^ _ ` a b c _ d c _ Z p b Z e W Q R Z � Y Y b Z o o g e

@ A B Q C H ^ ^ t R A J F s T B Q h D H N L @ R C ` D A B H � U D k ` U D M h H ` T M T D H R ^ _ ` a b c _ d e w l b d i W t T J H Z o o p WQ R Y D f � Y D g b Z o o p e R

P A K E H L @ R s R t R A D U � M h U ` J T j ^ H E E J A j H ^ ^ T ^ A D � A T M U B A M A L E B T ^ A M E U J U ` D H j D N L M A ^ ^ E L A M E U J Rf g b c x ` _ ^ _ ` a b c _ d c _ d f b Z e R Q Q R d p � Z c R b Z o o g e

P D H E L C A j h � R 5 R y U D k E J G M U G H M h H D E J M h H F H L E G J A J A ^ N L E L U ` M D A J L Q U D M A E D j D A ` M L M D T j M T D H Rp b l g a a i c h m e l z w l b { e k l x l h | } l h g ~ b b a h ` � h m c h a a b c h m _ h i } s � f | � � U N A ^ C H D U J A T M E j A ^V U j E H M N W 5 U J F U J W � U K H B C H D Z o o p W Q Q R Z R Z � Z R Z o b Z o o p e

O F � A D F L 5 R A J F O J F H A J � R b H F L R e ^ _ h ~ z _ g ` ~ b c h m � c ` k � _ ` a b c _ d e W � A M H D E A ^ L E J C j M E U J V H D E H L RX T M M H D � U D M h V j E H J M E ` E j 5 M F W b Z o o c e R

O [ V � @ b O J G E J H H D E J G A J F [ h N L E j A ^ V j E H J j H L � H L H A D j h @ U T J j E ^ e R S h H O [ V � @ [ D U G D A B B HZ o o f � o g R C Q D E ^ Z o o f R b Z o o f A e

O [ V � @ b O J G E J H H D E J G A J F [ h N L E j A ^ V j E H J j H L � H L H A D j h @ U T J j E ^ e R � H L Q U J L H M U ] U D H L E G h M R] H C D T A D N Z o o f R b Z o o f C e

s U ^ ^ U a A R O R S h H [ D U j H L L E J G A J F O J G E J H H D E J G C Q Q ^ E j A M E U J U ` � A M H D E A ^ L R I J Q T C ^ E L h H F D H Q U D MM U V O � @ W Q D U K E F H F j U T D M H L N U ` � R @ A B H D U J b O [ V � @ e R b Z o o d e

� X � b � J M H D J A M E U J A ^ X T L E J H L L � A j h E J H L @ U D Q U D A M E U J e R S H j h J E j A ^ ^ E M H D A M T D H U J @ C S � CC J A ^ N L E L A J F V E B T ^ A M E U J V U ^ T M E U J L [ D U F T j M L R � X � _ P A L L A T ^ M V N L M � B H L W V T D H L J H L W] D A J j H R b Z o o f e

� j h E k A � A ] R W X h A F h H L h E A s R ] R P R s R A J F � A j k A N P R t R @ R � U F H ^ ` U D L U ^ E F E ` E j A M E U J j D A j k E J G E J^ U � A ^ ^ U N L M H H ^ � H ^ F B H M A ^ L R V j E H J j H A J F S H j h J U ^ U G N U ` y H ^ F E J G A J F t U E J E J G W Z b Z e WQ R Z d b Z o o f e R

� J L M E M T M H U ` � A M H D E A ^ L R � A M H D E A ^ L S H j h J U ^ U G N ] U D H L E G h M U J C H D U L Q A j H V M D T j M T D A ^ � A M H D E A ^ L R� A M H D E A ^ L V M D A M H G N @ U B B E L L E U J b � J L M E M T M H U ` � A M H D E A ^ L e W V H Q M H B C H D Z o o p R b Z o o p e

5 H J A T S R A J F C ^ M E J G 5 R C D M E ` E j E A ^ E J M H ^ ^ E G H J j H ` U D Q D U j H L L L H ^ H j M E U J R � q ^ a g k _ h c g _ d w l b { c h mj a g k h l d l m n Z g b C T G R e b Z o D D e d d � Z o R

7 8

� [ 5 b � A M E U J A ^ [ h N L E j A ^ 5 A C U D A M U D N e R � H ^ E A C ^ H P A M A ` U D [ D U j H L L � U F H ^ ^ E J G W � [ 5 ^ H A ` ^ H M Rb Z o o f e R

n V S b n ` ` E j H U ` V j E H J j H A J F S H j h J U ^ U G N e R [ D U G D H L L M h D U T G h [ A D M J H D L h E Q � � H Q U D M ` D U B M h HV M H H D E J G A D U T Q U ` M h H S H j h J U ^ U G N ] U D H L E G h M [ D U G D A B B H R s � V n [ T C ^ E j A M E U J L Rb Z o o p A e R

n V S b n ` ` E j H U ` V j E H J j H A J F S H j h J U ^ U G N e R [ D U G D H L L M h D U T G h [ A D M J H D L h E Q � Z c � � A M H D E A ^ L Rs � V n [ T C ^ E j A M E U J L R b Z o o p C e R

� A Q Q A � � R A J F A A J F E J @ h R � C R W [ D U C A C E ^ E L M E j B U F H ^ ^ E J G U ` M h H B E j D U L M D T j M T D H ` U D B A M E U J E JL U ^ E F E ` E j A M E U J Q D U j H L L H L R s g ` _ � a ` _ d d q � _ ` a b R Z Z b Y e b Z o o d e d Z p � d f c R

� A Q Q A � W � R W A J F ] H F D U � R b H F L R e R p b l g a a i c h m e l z ` k a � a h a b _ d } l e ` � � � w l b { e k l x l h ^ l i a d d c h mc h ^ _ ` a b c _ d e f g c a h g a _ h i p b l g a e e c h m W n j M U C H D Z o o f W P A K U L W V � E M � H D ^ A J F b Z o o f e R

� H J F E G L ] R � s R W C ^ T B E J E T B V M D T j M T D H L I L H F E J C H D U L Q A j H � V M A M T L A J F [ D U L Q H j M L q p b l g q � ` k� h ` q s d s d d l n } l h z R W A D H J U C ^ H W ] D A J j H W t T ^ N Z o o f R � U ^ R Z W Q R Z Z b Z o o f e

� E j h B U J F n R W � E j D U L M D T j M T D H � C A L H F � U F H ^ ^ E J G U ` P H ` U D B A M E U J [ D U j H L L H L R � q ^ a ` _ d e R b Z o D D e R� E j h B U J F n R W � A M H D E A ^ L � C A L H F P H ` U D B A M E U J [ D U j H L L � U F H ^ L q p b l g q } l h z q ^ _ ` k a � _ ` c g _ d

^ l i a d d c h m l z ^ a ` _ d e p b l g a e e c h m � x a b _ ` c l h e R S � V W [ A ^ B V Q D E J G L R b Z o D g e RV A E J ` U D M [ R W V E G ^ E @ R W � A N J A T F A R � R A J F A U B E H D U [ R W V M D T j M T D H A J F [ D U Q H D M N @ U J M D U ^ U `

C H D U L Q A j H C ^ ^ U N L R p b l g q � ` k � h ` q s d s d d l n } l h z R W A D H J U C ^ H W ] D A J j H W t T ^ N Z o o f R � U ^ R Z WQ R Y p b Z o o f e

V A D G H J M [ R W V h H D j ^ E ` ` s R � R A J F y U U F � R 5 R � U F H ^ ^ E J G � A M H D E A ^ L [ D U j H L L E J G W � H Q U D M ` U D M h HC @ � O P E D H j M U D A M H U ` V O � @ R } _ � � b c i m a � h c � a b e c ` n � h m c h a a b c h m � a x _ b ` � a h ` j a g k h c g _ dr a x l b ` � } � � � � } � ^ s j f � j r � � � W n j M U C H D Z o o d R b Z o o d e

y U U F W � R 5 R C J A Q Q D A E L A ^ U ` j T D D H J M Q D U j H L L B U F H ^ ^ E J G M H j h J U ^ U G N A J F A L M D T j M T D H F K E H � U `E M L Q U M H J M E A ^ ` T M T D H Q D U G D H L L � Q A D M Z � j T D D H J M M H j h J U ^ U G N r Q A D M Y � A L M D T j M T D H F K E H � Rp b l g a e e c h m l z s i � _ h g a i ^ _ ` a b c _ d e b Z o o d A e R

y U U F W � R 5 R C J E J K H D L H M h H D B A ^ ` E H ^ F Q D U C ^ H B C A L H F U J J U E L N B H A L T D H B H J M L � j U B Q A D E L U J U `G H J H M E j A ^ G U D E M h B A J F L H � T H J M E A ^ ` T J j M E U J L Q H j E ` E j A M E U J B H M h U F R � h ` q � q } l � x ~ ` a b �

s c i a i � h m c h a a b c h m b Z o o d C e R

7

APPENDIX

List of people consulted

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �& � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � . � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � ? & � � � � � � � � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � �

� � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � "

, � � � � � � � � � ? � � � � � � � � � � � �

) � � " � � . � 1 � � � � P H Q M R O J G E J H H D E J G W I J E K H D L E M N U `@ A B C D E F G H

, � " + � � � � ; � � � � @ H J M D H ` U D � T B H D E j A ^ � U F H ^ ^ E J GA J F [ D U j H L L C J A ^ N L E LI J E K H D L E M N U ` A D H H J � E j h

, � " ) � � � � ; � � V j h U U ^ U ` � H M A ^ ^ T D G N A J F� A M H D E A ^ L WI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B

, � " , � � � ; � � � � � � � � S H H L L E F H 5 A C U D A M U D E H LX D E M E L h V M H H ^ S H j h J E j A ^

) � � " : � � ; � � � P H Q M R � H j h A J E j A ^ O J G E J H H D E J GI J E K H D L E M N U ` V h H ` ` E H ^ F

, � " � � � � � ; � � � P H Q M R � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H WI J E K H D L E M N @ U ^ ^ H G H U ` V � A J L H A

, � " � � � � � ; � � � P H Q M R U ` � H j h A J E j A ^ W � A M H D E A ^ LA J F � A J T ` A j M T D E J G O J G E J H H D E J GI J E K H D L E M N U ` � H � j A L M ^ H

� � " * � � � � ; � � � � � � O [ V � @) � � " 1 � + � � . � P H Q M R O J G E J H H D E J G W

I J E K H D L E M N U ` 5 H E j H L M H D, � " + � � � � + � � � � � � � V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D H

X D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

8 9

� � " 1 � � � , � � � � ] A j T ^ M N U ` S H j h J U ^ U G Nn Q H J I J E K H D L E M N

, � " ; � � , � � � � P H Q M R V j E H J j H U ` � A M H D E A ^ L WI J E K H D L E M N U ` n a ` U D F

) � � " * � � � � � � ( � � P H Q M R � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H WI J E K H D L E M N @ U ^ ^ H G H U ` V � A J L H A

, � " * � � ' � @ � . V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

, � " * � � � � � > � � V j h U U ^ U ` � A J T ` A j M T D E J G �� H j h A J E j A ^ O J G E J H H D E J G WI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B

, � " ) � � � � > � � � � � V j h U U ^ U ` � A J T ` A j M T D E J G �� H j h A J E j A ^ O J G E J H H D E J G WI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B

, � " 1 � � � � > � � � V � E J F H J S H j h J U ^ U G N @ H J M D HX D E M E L h V M H H ^

) � � " : � � > � � � � � � � � � A J j h H L M H D � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H@ H J M D H W I J E K H D L E M N U ` � A J j h H L M H D� I � � V S

, � " ) � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � V � E J F H J S H j h J U ^ U G N @ H J M D HX D E M E L h V M H H ^

, � " , � � � � � � � P H Q M R � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H WI J E K H D L E M N @ U ^ ^ H G H U ` V � A J L H A

, � " � � . : � � � � @ A L M E J G L @ H J M D H W � � @ E J � A M H D E A ^ LI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B

, � " , 3 � � � � V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

, � " ) � � � � � � � � V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

) � � " * � � � ( � � V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

, � " , � � � � � � � � � � � X A J C T D N 5 A C U D A M U D NC ^ j A J � J M H D J A M E U J A ^

) � � " � � � � � � ) � � P H Q M R U ` � H j h A J E j A ^ W � A M H D E A ^ LA J F � A J T ` A j M T D E J G O J G E J H H D E J GI J E K H D L E M N U ` � H � j A L M ^ H

, � " , � � � ) � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � S H H L L E F H 5 A C U D A M U D E H LX D E M E L h V M H H ^ S H j h J E j A ^

, � " � ) � � � � � � � V j h U U ^ U ` � A J T ` A j M T D E J G �� H j h A J E j A ^ O J G E J H H D E J G WI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B

, � " * � � . � * � � . � X A J C T D N 5 A C U D A M U D NC ^ j A J � J M H D J A M E U J A ^

8 �

, � " � � � * � � � � � � � S H H L L E F H 5 A C U D A M U D E H LX D E M E L h V M H H ^ S H j h J E j A ^

, � " : � � � * � � � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H A J F� H M A ^ ^ T D G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` @ A B C D E F G H

, � " � � � � � * � � � � � X A J C T D N 5 A C U D A M U D NC ^ j A J � J M H D J A M E U J A ^

, � " ) � � � � � � � � � � � T E ^ ^ E U J V N L M H B L W @ A B C D E F G H) � � " � � . � � � � � � � P H Q M R O J G E J H H D E J G � A M H D E A ^ L

V h H ` ` E H ^ F I J E K H D L E M N, � " ; � � � � � � � S H H L L E F H 5 A C U D A M U D E H L

X D E M E L h V M H H ^ S H j h J E j A ^, � " : � � � � � � � � [ D U j H L L � U F H ^ ^ E J G A D U T Q

� U ^ ^ L � U N j H� � " ) � � � � � � � � � [ D U j H L L � U F H ^ ^ E J G A D U T Q

� U ^ ^ L � U N j H, � " � � . � � � � � � � �) � � " + � � � � � � � � � � � � V j h U U ^ U ` � A J T ` A j M T D E J G �

� H j h A J E j A ^ O J G E J H H D E J G WI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B

, � " : � � / � � � � � � � V � E J F H J S H j h J U ^ U G N @ H J M D HX D E M E L h V M H H ^

� � " ) � � � � / � � � S H H L L E F H 5 A C U D A M U D E H LX D E M E L h V M H H ^ S H j h J E j A ^

, � " 3 � � � � / � � � � � X A J C T D N 5 A C U D A M U D NC ^ j A J � J M H D J A M E U J A ^

, � " * � / � � � � � � � S H H L L E F H 5 A C U D A M U D E H LX D E M E L h V M H H ^ S H j h J E j A ^

, � " � � � � � � / � � � � � � V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

� � " ; � � / � � � P H Q M R U ` � A J T ` A j M T D E J GO J G E J H H D E J G W 5 U T G h C U D U T G hI J E K H D L E M N U ` S H j h J U ^ U G N

* � � � � � � � � � � & � � � � � � � � �, � " + � � � � ; � � � � P H Q M R U ` @ U B Q T M E J G A J F

� A M h H B A M E j A ^ V j E H J j H LI J E K H D L E M N U ` A D H H J � E j h

, � " > � � � ; � � � � � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H A J F� H M A ^ ^ T D G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` @ A B C D E F G H

) � � " 1 � ; � � � � � V j h U U ^ U ` � H j h A J E j A ^ O J G E J H H D E J GI J E K H D L E M N U ` X A M h

8 4

, � " ) � � ; � � � � � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H A J F� H M A ^ ^ T D G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` @ A B C D E F G H

, � " � � . ; � � � � � � � P H Q M U ` [ h N L E j LI J E K H D L E M N U ` ] H J M

) � � " ; � � + � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ LI J E K H D L E M N U ` n a ` U D F

, � " ( " 1 " + � � � � � � n a ` U D F � A M H D E A ^ L 5 M F] D U F L h A B

� � " ) � � � + � � � � � � A N j h H BV � E J F U J

, � " , � � � , � � � V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

, � " + � � � � � � ] ^ U � S H j h P H L E G J 5 M FX U ^ M U J

� � " * " 1 " � � � � � � S 5 M F WX T D N V M O F B T J F L

) � � " � " ) " ' � � � � � P H Q M R U ` @ h H B E L M D NI J E K H D L E M N U ` C C H D F H H J

, � " ' � � � � � ' � � � � � � . % / � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H A J F� H M A ^ ^ T D G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` @ A B C D E F G H

, � " ) � � � � . ' � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ LI J E K H D L E M N U ` n a ` U D F

, � " * � � ' � @ � . V U � H D C N � H L H A D j h @ H J M D HX D E M E L h C H D U L Q A j H W ] E ^ M U J

, � " � � � � � � > � � X D E M E L h [ U ^ N B H D S D A E J E J GC L L U j E A M E U J 5 M F WS H ^ ` U D F

, � " � " � � � � � � � @ H J M D H ` U D @ U B Q U L E M H � A M H D E A ^ L� B Q H D E A ^ @ U ^ ^ H G H W 5 U J F U J

) � � " 2 " � " � � + � � � � � A M E U J A ^ [ h N L E j A ^ 5 A C U D A M U D NS H F F E J G M U J

) � � " � " + " ; " � � 2 � � � � � � @ E J [ U ^ N B H D V j E H J j H A J FS H j h J U ^ U G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` 5 H H F L

, � " , � � � ) � � � � � V M D T j M T D A ^ � A M H D E A ^ L @ H J M D HP � C ] A D J C U D U T G h

) � � " ' " , " ) � � � � P H Q M R U ` A H U ^ U G E j A ^ V j E H J j H LI J E K H D L E M N @ U ^ ^ H G H 5 U J F U J

, � " � � � � ) � � � � P H Q M R U ` @ h H B E L M D NI J E K H D L E M N @ U ^ ^ H G H 5 U J F U J

, � " ) � � � � � � * � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � P H Q M R U ` O J G E J H H D E J G � A M H D E A ^ LI J E K H D L E M N U ` V U T M h A B Q M U J

8 0

, � " � � � � � * � � � � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ LI J E K H D L E M N U ` n a ` U D F

� � " � � � � � � � � � S y � b S h H y H ^ F E J G � J L M E M T M H eC C E J G M U J s A ^ ^ W @ A B C D E F G H

) � � " � � � � � � � � � � � � P H Q M R U ` [ h N L E j LI J E K H D L E M N @ U ^ ^ H G H 5 U J F U J

) � � " 3 � � � � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M h H B A M E j LI J E K H D L E M N U ` y A ^ H L W C C H D N L M � N M h

) � � " � " � " / � � � � @ E J [ U ^ N B H D V j E H J j H A J FS H j h J U ^ U G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` 5 H H F L

, � " ( � � � / � � � � V j h U U ^ U ` O J G E J H H D E J GV h H ` ` E H ^ F s A ^ ^ A B I J E K H D L E M N

) � � " 1 � / � � � � P H Q M R U ` � A M H D E A ^ L V j E H J j H A J F� H M A ^ ^ T D G NI J E K H D L E M N U ` @ A B C D E F G H

, � " : " * " / � � � � P H Q M R U ` � H j h A J E j A ^ W � A M H D E A ^ LA J F � A J T ` A j M T D E J G O J G E J H H D E J GI J E K H D L E M N U ` � H � j A L M ^ H

, � " � � � � B � � � � @ E J � A M H D E A ^ LI J E K H D L E M N U ` X E D B E J G h A B