Mohan Munasinghe Millennium Consumption Goals MCGs Can Preserve the Planet Protect the Poor and Promote Prosperity

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    M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

    Millennium Consumption Goals (MCGs)

    can preserve the planet, protect the poor

    and promote prosperity

    Professor Mohan Munasinghewww.mohanmunasinghe.com

    Chairman, Munasinghe Institute for Development (MIND), ColomboProfessor of Sustainable Development, SCI, Univ. of Manchester, UK

    Distinguished Guest Professor, Peking University, ChinaShared the 2007 Nobel Prize for Peace (Vice Chair, IPCC-AR4)

    Paper presented at the

    Club of Rome International Conference onFuture of Energy and Interconnected Challenges in the 21st Century

    Basel, 17 October 2011

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    M I N D

    Example of Resource Shortage: Peak Oil

    & Bridging the Oil Demand-Supply Gap

    Past Production of Oil

    ForecastProduction

    Demand

    Growth

    Deprivation, war

    City design/lifestyle

    Pricing / taxes

    Transportmode shifts

    Efficiency

    Other petroleum fuelsgas, tar-sands

    Other fuels

    Gbbls/year

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    0

    10

    20

    30

    40

    50

    1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

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    M I N D

    Climate Change IPCC AR4 Main Findings Global warming in unequivocal. Total radiative forcing of the climatenow is unprecedented in several thousand years, due to rising

    concentrations of GHG (CO2, CH4 & NO2).

    Humans activities since the 18th century are very likely to have caused net

    warming of Earths climate, dominating over the last 50 years. More temp.

    and sea level rise is inevitable, even with existing GHG concentrations. Long term unmitigated climate change would likely exceed the capacityto adapt, of natural managed and human systems.

    Adaptation measures are available, but must be systematically developed

    Mitigation technologies are also available, but better policies andmeasures (PAM) are needed to realize their potential.

    Poor countries and poor groups are most vulnerable to warming,sea level rise, precipitation changes and extreme events. Most socio-

    economic sectors, ecological systems and human health will suffer. Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is the mosteffective solution - by integrating climate change policy intosustainable development strategy.

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    M I N D

    WHAT ARE OUR VALUESAND HOW WELL DO WEESTABLISH PRIORITIES ?

    Dealing with the Triple CrisisBubbles

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    M I N D

    Financial Markets

    Productive Economic Assets

    Bubbles

    Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 1A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards

    e.g., 2008

    asset crisis

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    M I N D

    Financial Markets

    Productive Economic Assets

    Bubbles

    Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 2A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards

    Growth2008 asset

    crisis

    Poverty

    Inequity

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    M I N D

    Financial Markets

    Productive Economic Assets

    Bubbles

    Bio-geo-physical Resources

    Externalities

    Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 3A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards

    Growth2008 asset

    crisis

    Climate

    change

    Poverty

    Inequity

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    M I N D

    Financial Markets

    Productive Economic Assets

    Bubbles

    Bio-geo-physical Resources

    Externalities

    Triple crisis bubbles driven by greed enjoy now & pay later 4A few get rich quickly, many innocents pay a heavy price afterwards

    HumanValues

    /Choices

    GrowthGovt. Bailout >$5 tri ll ion (1012) Aid/yr ~$100 billion (109)

    2008 asset

    crisis

    Climate

    change

    Few billion $

    Poverty

    Inequity

    Asset bubble >$100 trillion (1012), Global GDP $60 tri ll ionWorld Military Expenditures: $1.5 tril lion in 2010

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    Poverty, Inequity, PandemicsEnvironmental degradationResource Shortage, ConflictSocial polarization, Terrorism

    Climate Change

    Unrestrained market forces increase risk of conflict (erosion of

    ethical & moral values underpinning civilization)

    Chaos, Break-downConflict, rivalry and

    competition for

    resources overwhelm all

    efforts to impose order

    Fortress WorldLocal, regional & global groups

    protect their interests within enclaves

    How will we cope with such a

    world?

    Barbarization: We need MCGs to avoid this risky future

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    M I N D

    THE WAY FORWARD

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    M I N D

    Asset crisis: have we learnt from experience?Are we not returning to business as usual?

    2009

    FinancialSector

    JoblessPoor

    2010-11

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    M I N D

    Better Use of the Momentum for Change

    1.Build for long term. Make Development MoreSustainable -- with balanced consideration ofsustainable development triangle (economic,

    social and environmental elements). Transcendconventional boundaries using innovative,holistic, integrative approaches.

    2.Transform global governance structure. Reformmarket regulation. Make UN system more effective& responsive. Make IMF/World Bank more

    inclusive. Give more weight to G20 (with advicefrom B20, C20, etc.)

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    M I N D

    Global Economic Balance Shifting

    Towards Emerging EconomiesFor the past decade, emerging and developingeconomies have grown over 5% faster thanadvanced economies. The global balance ofeconomic momentum has shifted.

    US, Europe and Japan are still struggling to comeout of the financial crisis, and facing major issuesincluding low growth and high debts.

    Emerging economies like China, India and Brazilare forging ahead after only minor initial downturns in growth.

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    Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 1Levels

    Main

    Issues

    (surface)

    Indicators

    Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion,

    Resource Conflicts, Harm to

    Environment (including CC)

    Human Interventions

    High risk from unrestrained,

    myopic market forces (Washington

    consensus, globalisation etc.)

    Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.

    Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI

    Now

    Time

    Business-as-usual poses unacceptablerisks for the future

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    Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 2Levels

    Main

    Issues

    (surface)

    Immediate

    Drivers

    (sub-surface)

    Indicators

    Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion,

    Resource Conflicts, Harm to

    Environment (including CC)

    Consumption Patterns

    Production/Technology

    Population

    Governance

    Human Interventions

    High risk from unrestrained,

    myopic market forces (Washington

    consensus, globalisation etc.)

    Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.

    Making development moresustainable (MDMS) with

    systematic policy reform to manage

    market forces (Sustainomics)

    Proactive: integrated, harmonious

    approach - govt., business, civil soc.

    Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI

    Now

    Transition

    Time

    The SD transition requires integratedsolutions to multiple problems

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    Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 3Levels

    Main

    Issues

    (surface)

    Immediate

    Drivers

    (sub-surface)

    Underlying

    Pressures(deep)

    Indicators

    Poverty, Inequity, Exclusion,

    Resource Conflicts, Harm to

    Environment (including CC)

    Consumption Patterns

    Production/Technology

    Population

    Governance

    Basic Needs

    Social Power Structure

    Values, Perceptions, Choices

    Knowledge Base

    Human Interventions

    High risk from unrestrained,

    myopic market forces (Washington

    consensus, globalisation etc.)

    Reactive: piecemeal - mainly govt.

    Making development moresustainable (MDMS) with

    systematic policy reform to manage

    market forces (Sustainomics)

    Proactive: integrated, harmonious

    approach - govt., business, civil soc.

    Fundamental global sustainable

    dev. transition catalysed by grass

    roots citizens movements, & driven

    by social justice, ethics and equity,innovative leadership, policies, info.

    flows, tech. (new SD paradigm)

    Proactive: civil soc., business, govt.

    Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI

    Now

    Transition

    Long Term

    Time

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    Way Forward - A Long Term Vision of SD: 4Levels

    Immediate

    Drivers

    (sub-surface)

    Indicators

    Consumption Patterns

    Production/Technology

    Population

    Governance

    Making development moresustainable (MDMS) with

    systematic policy reform to manage

    market forces (Sustainomics)

    Proactive: integrated, harmonious

    approach - govt., business, civil soc.

    Source: Munasinghe (2007), IPCC, MA, GTI

    Transition

    Time Human Interventions

    We need integrated policies addressingmany issues within national SD strategy

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    WHY ?

    HOW ?

    is business-as-usual risky for humanity

    We face multiple economic, environmental andsocial threats, while responses are inadequate

    can we move forward to transform dangerouscurrent trends into a safer and better future

    Start the transition by making development more

    sustainable (MDMS)

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    HOW DO WE GET THERE ?

    Addressing Complex, Multiple,Interlinked Sustainable Development

    issues within the IntegratedSUSTAINOMICS Framework

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    M I N D

    Core Concept 1: Make Development More Sustainable

    with EMPOWERMENT, ACTION & FORESIGHTThere are many definitions of sustainable development, and its

    precise meaning still remains elusive (and perhaps unreachable).

    PRACTICAL TEST FOR HUMAN ACTIONS:Does the activity make development more (or less) sustainable?

    Making development more sustainable (MDMS) is a more practical

    incremental strategy that is easiersimpler implement because manyunsustainable activities are easier to recognize and eliminate.

    Parallel track strategy:

    1. Short to medium term make development more sustainable

    (apply best practice).2. Long term - aim for ideal goal of sustainable development

    (identify next practice).

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    Lets move forward NOW!! If

    we climb uphill, we will

    reach the peak eventually

    We cannot see the peak!!

    Lets stop to discuss &

    analyze how to reach it.

    Sustainable DevelopmentPeak including climate

    change (covered by clouds)

    Many obviously unsustainable practices exist today.MDMS encourages us to eliminate them NOW! Examplesinclude energy wastage and deforestation.

    EMPOWERED to Make Development More

    Sustainable (MDMS) BEST PRACTICEANALYSING SD and CC

    NEXT PRACTICE

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    MDMS: Producers & Corporate

    Social Responsibility (CSR) Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) is a concept whereby

    companies voluntarily cater to the interests of societybytaking responsibility for the impact of their activities oncustomers, suppliers, employees, shareholders, communitiesand the environment in all aspects of their operations.

    This obligation is seen to extend beyond the statutory andconventional obligation to comply with legislation and seek

    profits.

    This approach is becoming formalized through sustainabilityaccounting and reporting that focuses on the triple bottomline (financial, social and environmental).

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    Development- Sectors (Agriculture, Energy, Industry,

    Transport, Health, etc.)- Systems (Environmental, ecological, etc.)

    - Communities (Poor, Vulnerable, etc.)

    Sustai

    nableDe

    v.

    (Social,Economic,Environmen

    tal)

    Env

    ironment

    (natura

    lvariability)

    SCP

    MDMS: Govt.-National Level IntegrationMake decision makers see climate change as a key element

    of the national sustainable development strategy

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    Ecosystem

    Ecological

    Services

    SolarEnergy Radi

    ated

    Energ

    y

    The capacity of the ecosystem may become overloaded by the growing

    socio-economic subsystem (broken lines).

    Nat.Res.Energy Was

    tes

    Pollutio

    n

    Socioeconomic

    Subsystem

    MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction)

    of development and growth - 1

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    MDMS: Global restructuring (not reduction)

    of development and growth - 2(integrating CC into SD - rounding the rectangle)

    Socioeconomic

    Subsystem

    Socioeconomic

    Subsystem

    Unsustainable Sustainable

    Ecosystem Ecosystem

    C C 2 H i h SD T i l f

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    Economic

    Social empowerment/governance

    inclusion/consultation

    institutions/values

    Environmental resilience/biodiversity

    natural resources

    pollution

    Sustainable Development Triangle harmonising key elements andinterconnections (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit

    growthefficiency

    stability

    Core Concept 2: Harmonise the SD Triangle forBALANCE & INTEGRATION - 1

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    ENERGY

    Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.

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    ENERGYECONOMY

    Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.

    Supply-demand balance, price and income elasticity of demand,cost-benefit analysis, least cost investment planning, demandmanagement, long run marginal cost pricing, etc.

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    ENERGYECONOMY

    Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.

    Supply-demand balance, price and income elasticity of demand,cost-benefit analysis, least cost investment planning, demandmanagement, long run marginal cost pricing, etc.

    Poverty, equity, basic energy needs, affordability, social assessment

    SOCIETY

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    ENERGYECONOMY

    ENVIRON

    -MENT

    Supply technology-oriented, energy analysis, technical efficiency,thermodynamic laws, etc.

    Supply-demand balance, price and income elasticity of demand,cost-benefit analysis, least cost investment planning, demandmanagement, long run marginal cost pricing, etc.

    Poverty, equity, basic energy needs, affordability, social assessment

    Environmental and social assessment, valuation, extended CBA,multi-criteria analysis, integrated national energy planning andpricing, multi-sector macro-models, etc.

    SOCIETY

    SED F k i t i t

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    Economic

    Social empowerment

    inclusion/consultation

    institutions/governance

    Environmental resilience/biodiversity

    natural resources

    pollution

    intr

    a-generational

    equity

    basic

    needs/liv

    eliho

    ods

    inter-generational equity values/culture

    valu

    ation/in

    ternalisatio

    n

    inciden

    ceofim

    pacts

    Sustainable

    Energy

    Development

    (SED)

    Poverty-Equity

    Sustainable Development Triangle - key elements and interconnections

    (corners, sides and centre) Source: Munasinghe [1992], Rio Earth Summit

    growth

    efficiency

    stability

    SED Framework society, economy, environment

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    Assets for Sustainable Consumption & Production

    Social

    Capital

    Human Made

    Capital

    Natural

    CapitalSocial Capital

    Human

    Cultural

    Sustainable

    EnergyDevelopment

    Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit

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    Key role played by Social Capital embedded in

    Civil Society: ignored, undervalued, invisible

    At individual level: is built on personal networksthat help us enormously in our private and

    professional lives.

    At community and national levels: is the invisibleglue that binds society together involving values-ethics, culture, behaviour, and social linkages.

    Indigenous knowledge and culture is often animportant but unrecognised source of social capital.

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    Core Concept 3: Transcend Boundaries with

    INNOVATION & FRESH IDEAS

    Values replace unsustainable, unethical values Disciplinary complex issues need all disciplines

    Space spans local to global scales

    Time spans days to centuries Stakeholder need to include all stakeholders

    Operational full cycle from data to application

    Unsustainable Elements in SD Triangle

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    Unsustainable Elements in SD Triangle

    Social

    Capital

    Economic Debt

    Unsustainable

    borrowing to

    support

    consumption

    Environmental

    Debt

    Unsustainable

    cons. & prod,depleted NR

    Social Values

    Greed, Selfish

    Individualism,

    Elitism

    Drivers of

    UnsustainableDevelopment

    Source: Adapted from Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit

    T di U t i bl V l

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    M I N DMunasinghe Institute for Development Sustainable Consumption Institute SCI

    University of Manchester

    Build essential ethical and moral values

    (especially among youth)

    Greed and selfishness are unsustainable

    Selflessness, altruism, enlightened self-

    interest, and respect for nature will makedevelopment more sustainable

    Transcending Unsustainable Values

    Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change 2006

    Interfaith Declaration on Climate Change 2009

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    Transcending Stakeholder Boundaries to Build

    Cooperation for Sustainable Development

    Social

    Capital

    Business

    Govern-

    ment

    Civil

    Society

    Coalition forSustainable

    Development

    Promote positive interactions among government, civil society andbusiness to strengthen local, national and global governance

    Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit

    Transcending Operational Barriers

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    M I N D

    Transcending Operational Barriers

    Needs Better Stakeholder Cooperation Global

    Regional National

    Local

    Community

    Individual

    Pragmatic balance between subsidiarity andintegration is essential

    Integration

    Subsidiarity

    Top Down

    Bottom upSpecificProjects

    Strategy-Policy

    Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative

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    There are many practical analytical

    tools and policy options to integrate CCresponses into SD strategy (from global

    to local levels)

    There are many available case studies

    and best practice examples involving

    sustainomics applications

    Core Concept 4: Full cycle application of integrative

    tools, from data gathering to practical policy

    IMPLEMENTATION

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    Choosing Appropriate SD Indicators- Social

    - Environmental- Economic

    - Institutional

    many indicators are available; thus correct

    choice is critical for specific task at hand

    I t ti l ti l t l d ti l li ti

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    M I N D

    Integrative Analytical Tools

    1. Restructuring Growth to Make

    Development More Sustainable (MDMS)

    2. Optimisation and Durability

    3. SD Analysis (Macro Level)

    4. Action Impact Matrix (AIM)

    5. Green Accounting (SEEA-SNA)

    6. Integrated Models (IAM, CGE, etc.)

    7. SD Analysis (Micro Level)

    8. Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA), Cost-Benefit

    Analysis (CBA) and Economic Valuation

    9. SD Indicators

    Application

    LevelsA. Global-

    transnational

    B. National-

    macroeconomic

    C. Subnational-sectoral

    D. Local-project

    Integrative analytical tools and practical applications

    (linking across global, national and local levels)

    Linkag

    esAcrossLevels

    WHY ? i b i l i k f h it

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    WHY ?

    WHAT ?

    HOW ?

    examples exist of integrated responses to issues

    Many tools & best practice applications alreadyexist worldwide: SCP and MCG are key tools

    is business-as-usual risky for humanity

    We face multiple economic, environmental andsocial threats, while responses are inadequate

    can we move forward to transform dangerouscurrent trends into a safer and better future

    Start the transition by making development more

    sustainable (MDMS)

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    Global Application: CopenhagenCOP15 (Dec. 2009) Challenge

    Making Development More

    Sustainable via Tunneling:

    Potential Post-Kyoto Framework

    for Jointly Managing ClimateRisk & Right to Develop

    Climate Justice Equitable Allocation

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    M I N D

    Climate Justice Equitable Allocation

    of Per Capita Carbon Emissions

    Adaptation Burden & Equity: CC SDAd t ti i th fi t i it f d l i t i th t

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    Adaptation is the first priority of developing countries that

    are most vulnerable to climate change. Help is also crucial. Climate change is likely to impact disproportionately

    upon the poorest countries and the poorest personswithin all countries, exacerbating inequities in health status

    and access to adequate food, clean water and other resources. Net economic effects will be negative in most developing

    countries

    Impacts will be worse - many areas are already flood anddrought prone, and economic sectors are climate sensitive

    Lower capacity to adaptbecause of a lack of financial,institutional and technological capacity, and access toknowledge

    Per capita GHG emissions and population 2004

    Mitigation Responsibility & Equity: SD CC

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    p p pg p y q yMitigation leadership is the main responsibil ity of industrial

    countries with high per capita GHG emissions

    Annex 1 avg.

    Non-Annex I avg.

    MDMS via Tunneling & global cooperation to

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    ClimateRisk

    (e.g.percapitaGHG

    emis

    sions)

    Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

    manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - 1

    Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.

    Poor

    Middle Income

    Rich Today

    MDMS via Tunneling: global cooperation to

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    ClimateRisk

    (e.g.percapitaGHG

    emis

    sions)

    Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

    manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 2

    Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.

    Poor

    Middle Income

    Rich

    Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and

    most vulnerable.

    Transform -

    Decarbonise

    MDMS via Tunneling: global cooperation to

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    M I N DMunasinghe Institute for DevelopmentMunasinghe Institute for Development

    ClimateRisk

    (e.g.percapitaGHG

    emis

    sions)

    Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

    manage Climate Risk & Right to Develop - Step 3

    Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.

    Poor

    Middle Income

    Rich

    Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation fund (safety net) for poorest and

    most vulnerable.2. Technology cooperation/support to leapfrog

    Leapfrog

    Transform -

    Decarbonise

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    Sustainable Consumption &

    Production Pathway (SCP) toSustainable Development (SD)

    Millennium Consumption Goals(MCG) are important tool

    Sustainable Consumption & ProductionPath to Sustainable Development

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    Consumers, business and climatechange

    Principal authors:Mohan Munasinghe, Partha Dasgupta, Dale Southerton,Alice Bows, Andrew McMeekin

    Editor: Gabrielle Walker

    Path to Sustainable Development

    SCI Launch Meeting in London Oct. 2009Report endorsed by participants including: CEO Forum: Heads of f irms like TESCO, Coca Cola, Unilever, Reckitt-Benckiser, Johnson SC, Nestle, Danone, and others ~ one tril lion $ of annual sales

    Senior Political Figures (including David Cameron, UK Prime Minister) Leading Academics and Environmental NGOs

    Paper

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    M I N D

    WHY WE URGENTLY

    NEED MILLENNIUMCONSUMPTION GOALS

    (MCGs)

    www.millenniumconsumptiongoals.org

    No. of Earths to meet Human ConsumptionI 2010 d 1 5 th b 2030 l t 2 E th

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    Num

    berofEarths

    Sustainable

    BAU

    In 2010 we need 1.5 earths; by 2030 almost 2 Earths

    Unsustainable

    oneearth

    2010 2030

    Unfair World Income Distribution 2000Ch Gl

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    Champagne GlassThe richest fifth of theWorlds Population receives83% of the Worlds Income

    One fifth of the

    Worlds Population

    The poorest fifth of the WorldsPopulation receives 1.4% of total

    World Income

    Ratio of 60:1between

    highest and

    lowest 20% !!

    83%

    Addressing Issues of Poverty and Wealth:Sustainable Consumption & Production

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    ClimateRisk

    (e.g.percapitaGHG

    emissions)

    Development Level (e.g. per capita income)

    Sustainable Consumption & Production

    Source: M. Munasinghe (1995) "Making Growth More Sustainable,"Ecological Economics, 15:121-4.

    Poor

    Middle Income

    Rich

    Incentives/resources for developing countries1. Adaptation safety net for poorest and most

    vulnerable.2. Technology cooperation/support for mitigation

    Transform -

    Decarbonise

    Leapfrog

    Food for a Week:

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    Food for a Week:Affluent FamilyUnsustainable musttransform/decarbonize

    towards sustainablity:MillenniumConsumption Goals

    Source:Source: MenzelMenzel, 2005, 2005

    Poor FamilyUnsustainable/Unethical must leapfrog/tunnel toprosperity: Millennium

    Development Goals

    Economic Goal in the SD Triangle is Crowding Out

    Social and Environmental Goals Unsustainable!

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    Social

    Capital

    Economic Goal

    (Growth of MaterialOutput and Consumption

    by the Rich)

    Environmental

    Goal (Protect

    Nature)

    Social Goal

    (Protect the Poor

    and Weakest)

    Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit

    Social and Environmental Goals Unsustainable!

    The consumption of the rich is destroying theglobal natural resource base and crowding out

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    global natural resource base and crowding out

    development prospects of the poor.As resources (like energy, water and food)become scarce, the market solution is for

    prices to rise but this will simply rationresources in favour of the rich and deprive thepoor of even their basic needs. Recent world

    events show that deprivation leads to violence

    We can protect the poor, preserve nature andpromote prosperity by complementing the MDGswith Millennium Consumption Goals to make the

    rich consume more sustainably.

    Millennium Consumption Goals

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    1.Target group:Top 20% percentile of global income earners

    2. Main MCGs aim to reduce:Carbon emissionsEnergy useWater usePollution & Waste (air, water, solid and toxic waste)Land use and Biodiversity

    3. Other MCGs:

    Food, diet and health, lifestyles, livelihoods and work,financial system, long term fundamental shifts in behaviour

    Basic Concepts

    Millennium Consumption Goals (MCG):Advantages of New Pathway to Sustainability

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    g y y

    1. Targeted: 20% of richest percentile (1.4 billion people) account for >80% ofconsumption. Small changes towards sustainable consumption can reduceburden on environment

    2. Soft Multilevel Strategy Bottom Up & Top Down: Seeks to influence voluntarybehaviour at individual, community, city, enterprise, regional, and country

    levels. Complements top-down policy, global targets (UN, govt.). Middle levelpolicymakers (mayors, CEOs, etc.) play key bridging role.

    3. Complements MDG: Builds MCG-MDG links & protects consumption of poor

    4. Fractal and Subsidiary: Basic concept unchanged (like snowflake) and effective

    implementation possible at finer levels of detail.

    5. Faster Response: Provides quicker results compared to top down governmentpolicies and long term industrial investments. Momentum build up over time.

    6. Transnational: Cuts across national boundaries and avoids self-interest based

    approach of governments and interest groups

    7. Motivation: Rich are key stakeholders acting with enlightened self-interest,

    better education, more influence and resources

    8. Integrates Sustainable Consumption and Production: Links with producers and

    global supply chains

    MCG Path to SCP, GE and SD

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    MCG

    Sust. Cons.& Prod.

    Green Econ.

    Sust.

    Dev.

    Agreed &VoluntaryMCG

    BuildingBlocks

    Rooms Castle

    ,

    Millennium Consumption GoalsInitiative (MCGI) & Network (MCGN)

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    The Millennium Consumption Goals Initiative (MCGI) was launched tomove this idea forward. It is being pursued by a broad coalition ofstakeholders - the MCG Network (MCGN). It is action-oriented, multi-level, pluralistic and transnational. The MCGI seeks to be as inclusive aspossible, and follows aflexible, multi-track approach. It is movingforward in the UN. Meanwhile, action is being taken NOW by individuals,families, communities, enterprises, cit ies, regions and countries. Thesepioneers are already developing their own specific versions of MCG,

    implementing them, and monitoring and reporting progress - there is noneed to wait for broad multilateral agreements at the UN-global level!Thus, MCG is being pursued by the will ing, at whatever level theychoose, and focusing on the goals they prefer carbon emissions isthe favourite, but energy and water are also attractive. A broaderenabling framework of goals and policies will emerge gradually fromdiscussions at UN/govt. level. Support MCGI, Set Voluntary MCG !

    Initiative (MCGI) & Network (MCGN)

    Pioneering Voluntary MCG

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    Cities and CommunitiesCity of Munich, Germany1. By 2030, to halve per capita CO2 emissions in relation to 1990.2. By 2025, to meet all Munichs electr icity demand from renewable energy.

    Naestved Community, DenmarkBy 2030, reduce carbon emissions by 50%.

    BusinessNovozymes, Denmark

    By 2015, reduce CO2 emissions by 75 million tonnes through customers

    application of Novozymes products relating to bioenergy, agriculture,household care and industrial processes

    Academic and ResearchMunasinghe Institute for Development, Sri Lanka

    From 2011 onwards, become 100% carbon neutral

    Civil SocietyA number of individuals have declared their personal MCG targets.

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    M I N D

    UN Agenda

    1. Proposal Jan. 2011 at UNCSD 2012 PrepCom

    2. Launch meeting at CSD19 sessions May 2011

    3. Invited speech to Ministers at High Level

    sessions at CSD19 May 20114. Workshop at UNDPI, Bonn Sept. 2011

    5. To be discussed at UNCSD 2012 (Rio+20 Earth

    Summit)

    Top Down and Bottom Up

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    Chapeau paragraph summarizing MCG idea

    UN mandate (Rio+20) endorsed by Governments

    8-10 broad areas suitable for MCGs

    General outline by consensus (inputs from experts)

    Specific goals and moniterable targets

    Start with voluntary MCGs by cities, communities andcompanies, followed by formal govt. commitments

    approaches can go in parallel

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    Sustainable Consumption empowers householdsInfluence peoples behaviour to promote sustainable change

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    Empower and motivate using prices, labelsinformation, psychology and advertising.

    Change values, habits and socio-cultural

    contexts to shift to low-carbon products and

    behaviour. Eg., public attitude to smoking

    Adapt material and physical elements of

    production - goods and infrastructures are

    inter-connected

    Using MCGs, social capital embedded within individuals andcommunities, can be better mobil ized, organized, and empowered

    to work synergistically with business and influence government, tomake development more sustainable (MDMS)!

    Individual

    Community

    Producer

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    Take charge of your life!Better if you define meaningfulconsumption rather than letting

    meaningless consumptiondefine you

    Sustainable Production: Insights fromWorkshops on Business & Sustainability for

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    p y

    Senior Managers of Leading Multinationals

    Recent Examples: BASF, Germany (Chemicals)

    TESCO, UK (Supermarkets)

    Unilever, Coca Cola, Reckit-Benkeiser, Johnson SC,Danone, Nestle (Retail)

    Petrobras, Brazil (Energy, Oil and Gas) OPEC (energy, oil and gas)

    Sime Darby, Malaysia (Plantations Conglomerate)

    Novozymes, Denmark (Biotechnology)

    Vale, Brazil (Mining) Siemens, Shanghai Electric Group (Heavy Industry)

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    PRODUCTION - Life cycle analysis of carbon

    emission hot spots along the supply/value chain: 2

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    p g pp y

    Source: Adapted from Munasinghe et al. (2009)

    0%1%5%47%19%28%Orange Juice (Brazil freshly squeezed 1L)

    1%95%1%1%2%Light bulb (UK 11W)

    Recycling

    &

    disposal

    Cons-

    umer

    use

    Ret-

    ail

    Logistics

    distribution

    transport

    Manuf-

    acture &

    processing

    Raw

    material

    production

    PRODUCTION - Life cycle analysis of carbon

    emission hot spots along the supply/value chain: 3

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    M I N DSource: Adapted from Munasinghe et al. (2009)

    1%3%10%4%5%76%Milk (UK, National Tesco)

    0%1%5%47%19%28%Orange Juice (Brazil freshly squeezed 1L)

    1%95%1%1%2%Light bulb (UK 11W)

    Recycling

    &

    disposal

    Cons-

    umer

    use

    Ret-

    ail

    Logistics

    distribution

    transport

    Manuf-

    acture &

    processing

    Raw

    material

    production

    Bringing Sustainable Consumers & Producers Together: 1Sustainability Culture - Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)

    Sustainability leadership by a few consumers and producers

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    Sustainable

    Consumers

    Sustainable

    Producers

    CivilSociety

    Busi-ness

    y p y p

    Bringing Sustainable Consumers & Producers Together: 2Sustainability Culture - Making Development More Sustainable (MDMS)

    Sustainable behaviour spreads throughout the country

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    Other

    Sustainable

    Consumers

    Sustainable

    Consumers

    Sustainable

    Producers

    Other

    Sustainable

    ProducersMCG

    Govt.

    CivilSociety

    Busi-ness

    p g y

    Working with Responsible Media

    in Making Development More Sustainable

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    Social

    Capital

    Business

    Govern-

    ment

    Civil

    Society

    Dissemination

    Ethical Media

    Media must play greater role in disseminating correct information tostrengthen civil society and business in supporting and influencing

    government to move towards a more sustainable development path.

    Source: Munasinghe (1992), Rio Earth Summit

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    Mildly optimistic final message for the World

    Multiple global problems pose a serious challenge to us all

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    M I N D

    the economic crisis, poverty, resource scarcities, ecosystemharm, climate change, etc. are interlinked.Although the issues are complex and serious, these problemscan be solved together, provided we begin now.

    We know enough already to take the first steps towardsmaking development more sustainable (MDMS), that willtransform the risky business-as-usual scenario into a saferand more secure future.

    Values and governance systems (at all levels) must be changedto deal with multiple crises in an integrated way.Business and civil society can help government in mobilisingresources, identifying issues and implementing solutions.

    MCG & SCP can play key roles in implementing new 21stcentury models of sustainable development

    Alternative to Optimism is UNTHINKABLE !

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    Four horsemen of the Apocalypse: famine, plague, war, death

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    DEVO VASSATU KALENA

    Ancient Pali Blessing (Sri Lanka)

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    SASSA SAMPATTI HETU CAPHITO BHAVATU LOKO CARAJA BHAVATU DHAMMIKO

    May the rains come in time,May the harvests be bountifulMay the people be happy & contended

    May the king be righteous

    Even in ancient times, a favourable environment,economic prosperity, social stability (and goodgovernance), were clearly identified as key pre-requisites for making development more sustainable.

    Environmental:Economic:

    Social:

    Environment

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    M I N D

    Society Economy

    Munasinghe Institute for Development"making development more sustainable - MDMS

    10/1 De Fonseka Place, Colombo 5, Sri Lanka

    Phone: +9411-255-1208; Fax: +9411-255-1608

    E-mail: ; Web:

    MIND PROGRAMMES

    A d

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    M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

    AwardsResearch fellowships, Scholarships, MINDSustainable Support Service (MS3), Book donations

    Dissemination & ResearchDissemination & Training workshops

    Expert meetings & conferences

    Applied research studies and evaluations

    UN Centre of Excellence for Asia in the ClimateChange Capacity Development (C3D) network of the

    United Nations Institute for Training and Research(UNITAR).

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    M I N D

    MIND CC-SD Training Course, CMA, Beijing, July-Aug, 2006

    270 Senior Chinese Officials

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    MIND SD Course, Delhi, Feb. 2007

    25 Senior Indian Civil Service Officers

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    The University of Manchester

    Sustainable Consumption Institute (SCI)

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    M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

    Leading research into sustainable consumption

    Suggestions for Further Information

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    M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

    1. Munasinghe, M. (2010)Making Development More

    Sustainable Development, Second Edition, MIND Press, Sri

    Lanka Translated into Chinese.

    2. Munasinghe, M. (2009) Sustainable Development in Practice

    Sustainomics Methodology and Applications, Cambridge

    University Press, UK.

    3. Munasinghe, M., and Swart, R. (2005)Primer on ClimateChange and Sustainable Development, Cambridge University

    Press, UK Translated into Chinese.

    4. Website URL:

    MIND PressBook:

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    M I N D Munasinghe Institute for Development

    Book:650 pages

    SecondEditionPublished inApril 2010

    Cambridge

    University

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    UniversityPress Book:650 pages

    Published inMay 2009

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    Thank youvery much