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Mozambique TANZANIA MALAWI ZAMBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA Tete Niassa Gaza Sofala Zambezia M anica Nampula Inha m ba n e Cabo Delgado Maputo

Mozambique TANZANIA MALAWI ZAMBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA Tete Niassa Gaza Sofala Zambezia Manica Nampula Inhambane Cabo Delgado Maputo

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Page 1: Mozambique TANZANIA MALAWI ZAMBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA Tete Niassa Gaza Sofala Zambezia Manica Nampula Inhambane Cabo Delgado Maputo

MozambiqueTANZANIA

MALAWI

ZAMBIA

SWAZILAND

ZIMBABWE

SOUTHAFRICA

Tete

Niassa

Gaza

Sofala

Zambezia

Man

ica

Nampula

Inhambane

Cabo Delgado

Maputo

Page 2: Mozambique TANZANIA MALAWI ZAMBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA Tete Niassa Gaza Sofala Zambezia Manica Nampula Inhambane Cabo Delgado Maputo

2

Agenda

Why Invest in Agriculture in Mozambique

Agribusiness Strategy and Corridor Attractiveness

Agribusiness Opportunities in Mozambique

Page 3: Mozambique TANZANIA MALAWI ZAMBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA Tete Niassa Gaza Sofala Zambezia Manica Nampula Inhambane Cabo Delgado Maputo

3

Mozambique at a Glance

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011; World Bank

Tete

Niassa

Gaza

Sofala

Zambezia

Manica

Nampula

Inhambane

Cabo Delgado

Maputo

Mozambique is a stable, high economic growth country with substantial agricultural potential

Demographics (2011)Demographics (2011)

Population: 23.9 million Population Growth (5 Year CAGR): 2.4% Capital: Maputo National Language: Portuguese Business Languages: Portuguese & English

Population: 23.9 million Population Growth (5 Year CAGR): 2.4% Capital: Maputo National Language: Portuguese Business Languages: Portuguese & English

Land and ClimateLand and Climate

Area: 800,000 km2 (~80 million ha) Arable Land: 36 million hectares Climate: Tropical to Sub-Tropical

Area: 800,000 km2 (~80 million ha) Arable Land: 36 million hectares Climate: Tropical to Sub-Tropical

Key Economic Indicators (2011)Key Economic Indicators (2011)

Currency: Metical, Abbreviation: MZN GDP: USD 12.8B GDP per Capita: USD 535 Projected Annual GDP Growth: almost 8%

per year average until 2015 Agriculture Contribution to GDP: 32%

Currency: Metical, Abbreviation: MZN GDP: USD 12.8B GDP per Capita: USD 535 Projected Annual GDP Growth: almost 8%

per year average until 2015 Agriculture Contribution to GDP: 32%

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4

Mozambique: A Nation of Potential

Significant private sector investments

Major infrastructure investments

Numerous innovative public-private partnerships

Agricultural development seen as critical to country’s development, with activities across sectors focused on 6 agriculturally attractive corridors

Government business incentive programs Specific organizations set up to organize and assist investors

36 million ha of arable land, mostly unutilized Tropical to sub-tropical climate with fertile soil and ample

rainfall Tremendous irrigation potential from major rivers

Strong and growing economy

Reliance on imports: Large import substitution opportunity

Coastal position: Access to international and regional markets

The country’s potential can be captured in four key areas

Enabling Environmen

t for Investments

Government

Commitment to Market-

Driven Growth

Strong Market

Dynamics

Excellent Agro-

Ecological Conditions

Page 5: Mozambique TANZANIA MALAWI ZAMBIA SWAZILAND ZIMBABWE SOUTH AFRICA Tete Niassa Gaza Sofala Zambezia Manica Nampula Inhambane Cabo Delgado Maputo

5

Excellent Conditions for Agriculture

High Agricultural

Potential

EXTENSIVE WATERWAYS

YEAR-ROUND PRODUCTION POTENTIAL

10 DISTINCT AGRO-CLIMATIC ZONES

VAST UNUTILIZED

ARABLE LAND

36.0 5.4

85.0%

15.0%

UnutilizedUtilized

30.6

Arable Land

Land Suitability

He

cta

res

Suitable for rainfall agriculture

Moderately suitable for rainfall agriculture

Utilization of Arable Land

Major rivers such as Zambezi, Limpopo, Save, and other tertiary rivers offer tremendous irrigation potential

Tropical climates offer potential for year-round, high yield crop production

Mozambique boasts ideal growing conditions – plentiful water supply combined with diverse micro-climates support a broad range of agricultural commodities

Source: Ministry of Agriculture; World Bank

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6

Diverse Agro-Ecological Zones

There are 10 distinct agro-ecological zones in Mozambique offering potential for a wide variety of crops to be grown

Main Agro-Ecological Regions in Mozambique

Source: Ministry of Agriculture; World Bank, IFAD

Region Part of Mozambique Ag. Commodities Produced

R1Inland Maputo and south Gaza

Maize, cowpea, groundnut, cassava, sweet potato, banana

R2Coastal region south of the Sabi (Save) River

Maize, sugar, cowpea, sweet potato, groundnut, cassava

R3Center and north of Gaza, and west Inhambane

Cattle, goats, rice

R4Medium altitudes of central Maputo

Maize, sorghum, cassava, cowpea

R5Low altitudes of Sofala and Zambezia

Rice, cotton, cashew

R6Semi-arid region of Zambezi Valley and Southern Tete

Sorghum, millet, sugar, rice

R7Medium altitudes of Zambezia, Nampula, Tete, Niassa, and Cabo Delgado

Maize, soybean, sorghum, cassava, cowpeas, groundnuts, rice, sesame

R8Coastal litoral of Zambezia, Niassa, and Manica

Banana, cassava, millet, rice, cashew

R9North interior of Cabo Delgado

Maize, sorghum, cowpeas, cassava, sesame

R10High altitudes of Zambezia, Niassa, and Manica

Soybean, maize, common beans, potatoes, rice

R8

R8

R8

R7

R7

R7R7

R7

R10

R10

R10

R9

R6

R6

R6

R4

R5

R5

R10

R1

R2R3

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7

Strong and Growing Economy

Note: 1) Growth rates are based on nominal pricesSource: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, September 2011; World Bank; The Economist Intelligence Unit; National Institute of Statistics

The Mozambican economy has displayed strong growth and is expected to continue growing at one of the fastest rates in the world

US

D B

GDP Trend (2000 to 2015 est.)1

2015 est.

17.4

2010

9.6

45%

32%

23%

2005

6.6

48%27%25%

2000

4.2

51%24%25%

CAGR

Estimated CAGR

7.7%

Ethiopia

8.1%

India

8.2%

China

9.5%

MozambiqueY

ear

ove

r Y

ear

Gro

wth

World's Fastest Growing Economies (2011 to 2015 est.)

+8%

+8%

Services

Agriculture

Industry

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Location with Optimal Market Access

Mediterranean

China/ India

Middle East

Neighboring Countries

Mozambique: Proximity to High Opportunity Markets

Natural gateway to the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Asia

Bordering regional markets like South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Malawi

Port upgrades at Nacala and Beira will further trade opportunities

Natural gateway to the Middle East, Mediterranean, and Asia

Bordering regional markets like South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Malawi

Port upgrades at Nacala and Beira will further trade opportunities

Mozambique has an advantageous geographic positioning, providing an ideal gateway to both international and regional markets

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9

Southern African Development Community Members

ZimbabweNamibia

South Africa

Tanzania

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Angola

MadagascarBotswana

Zambia

SwazilandLesotho

Malawi

Mozambique

Mauritius

Seychelles

SADC Trade AgreementsSADC Trade Agreements

The SADC trade agreements aim to: Eliminate barriers to intra-SADC trade Eliminate import duties based on a phased

approach Eliminate all export duties Eliminate non-tariff barriers Apply no new quantitative import restrictions Eliminate quantitative export restrictions

The SADC trade agreements aim to: Eliminate barriers to intra-SADC trade Eliminate import duties based on a phased

approach Eliminate all export duties Eliminate non-tariff barriers Apply no new quantitative import restrictions Eliminate quantitative export restrictions

Under SADC trade agreements, Mozambique aims to have access to barrier-free trade with other member

states

Note: 1) Southern African Development Community; 2) Trade balance calculated as total value of imports less total value of exports Source: SADC; International Trade Center

Trade Opportunity Within SADCTrade Opportunity Within SADC

2008

3.2

2011

3.4

2010

2.1

2009

1.3

US

D B

Balance of Trade Value for Agricultural Products in SADC Region1

Trade Potential as a SADC1 Member

As a member of the Southern African Development Community, Mozambique has access to an agricultural market worth over USD 3B

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Government Support

Agricultural transformation is a priority within the highest levels of government and investors are offered attractive incentives and support

FOCUS ON

AGRICULTURE

FOCUS ON

AGRICULTUREINVESTMENT

INCENTIVES

INVESTMENT

INCENTIVESINSTITUTIONAL

SUPPORT

INSTITUTIONAL

SUPPORT

President Guebuza is a co-founder and champion of Grow Africa1

Agricultural growth is a high priority for the government to:

– Enhance employment and income potential

– Enhance food security 10-Year Strategic Plan

(PEDSA) for agricultural sector development in place

– Focused on six growth corridors

Exemptions on equipment importation duties

Real property transfer tax reductions

Reduction in corporate income taxes:– Agriculture corporate

income tax generally 10% – Effective tax rate can be

2% until 2015 and 5% until 2025

Low cost land– 50 year lease with 49 year

potential extension of land for ~USD 1/ year/ hectare

Agencies dedicated to facilitating investment

– The Investment Promotion Agency (CPI) and Centre for Promotion of Agriculture (CEPAGRI) promote and support agricultural investment opportunities

– GAZEDA dedicated to the Nacala Economic Zone

Some corridors also have organizations focused on developing and coordinating investments

Note: 1) Grow Africa is a series of conferences and interactions that connect the private sector and governments, focusing on accelerating investmentsSource: Investment Promotion Agency Website

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Growing Foreign Direct Investment

Mozambique has recently attracted many large private sector investments, ranging from the mining and natural gas sectors to agriculture

2011

2,100

2010

789

2009

893

2008

592

2007

427

US

D M

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mozambique grew nearly fivefold from 2007 to 2011

Aggregate FDI from 2007 to 2011 amounts to USD 4.8B

FDI is largely led by the expanding mining and natural gas sectors

Source: World Bank; Investment Promotion Agency; IMF

Sample of Large, Recent ProjectsSample of Large, Recent Projects

Vale: USD 6B coal mine Anadarko: Estimated USD 30B+ by 2017 Mozal JV: USD 2.5B aluminum project Green Resources: USD 2.2B eucalyptus

plantation and industrial infrastructure Matanuska: USD 60M invested to date

focused on bananas Olam: USD 50M+ investment in rice

Vale: USD 6B coal mine Anadarko: Estimated USD 30B+ by 2017 Mozal JV: USD 2.5B aluminum project Green Resources: USD 2.2B eucalyptus

plantation and industrial infrastructure Matanuska: USD 60M invested to date

focused on bananas Olam: USD 50M+ investment in rice

FDI Inflows (2007 to 2011)

Other Sectors2%

Transport and

Communication2%Agriculture

3%Financial

Activities6%

Extractive

Industries87%

FDI by Sector (2011)

Priority is being given to agriculture when attracting foreign

investors in the hope of improving productivity, reducing dependency

on imports, and helping cut food prices

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Ongoing and Planned Infrastructure Projects

1516

14

13

17

11

12

10

62

54

3

87

1

9

Infrastructure – including road, rail, ports, airports, and

electricity generation – is under development;

providing better capacity for linking

agricultural products to markets

Infrastructure – including road, rail, ports, airports, and

electricity generation – is under development;

providing better capacity for linking

agricultural products to markets

Source: Banco Nacional de Investimento , Ministry of Energy, Ministry of Public Works

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Innovative Agricultural Partnerships

Beira Agr. Growth Corridor (BAGC) Partnership

– Catalytic Fund of USD 20M in publicly-backed investment for startup agribusinesses

– First African country with a dedicated catalytic fund for agriculture AGRA + Standard Bank

– USD 25M loan guarantee facility GoM + World Bank

– USD 70M irrigation program (“Proirri”) USAID Agrifuturo

– Program to promote agribusiness Pro Savana

– Partnership between GOM, Japan and Brazil to develop agribusiness

Examples of Successful Public-Private Partnerships UnderwayExamples of Successful Public-Private Partnerships Underway

Innovative public-private partnerships to transform Mozambique’s agriculture are being implemented

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Agenda

Why Invest in Agriculture in Mozambique

Agribusiness Strategy and Corridor Attractiveness

Agribusiness Opportunities in Mozambique

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• Patient capital

• Skills and training

• Community support & engagement

• Human capital and capacity

• Expertise• Markets• Commercial

Financing

• Enabling environment

• Infrastructure• Research

PublicSector

PrivateSector

Development

PartnersMozambican

People

Aligning Efforts Across Stakeholders

The four stakeholder groups of the Public and Private sectors along with People and development Partners are key to developing Mozambique’s agriculture potential

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Importance of Agriculture in Mozambique’s Strategy

Summary of the Strategic Plan for Agricultural Development (PEDSA), 2011 to 2020

Agriculture is a key priority for the Mozambican government for poverty reduction and attaining food security, as is detailed in the country’s ten-year strategy plan

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

Vision: Vision: An integrated, prosperous, competitive

and sustainable agriculture sector

6 corridors targeted to align efforts across public, private, and development sectors through:– Agricultural potential– Support services (research centers, educational institutions)– Connection to market (infrastructure)

Agricultural production and productivity to increase ability

to compete

1Infrastructure

and services for markets and

improved marketing

2Land, water, forest, and

wildlife resources used

sustainably

3

Agricultural institutions

strengthened

4

Four Discrete Pillars in Progress to Achieve Agricultural Vision

Mozambique plans to allocate 10 percent of its budget to agriculture by 2015, as resolved in the Maputo Declaration of 2003 by the African Union

Mozambique plans to allocate 10 percent of its budget to agriculture by 2015, as resolved in the Maputo Declaration of 2003 by the African Union

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Agriculture Growth Corridors

Of Mozambique’s six agricultural corridors, Nacala, Zambezi Valley, and Beira corridors are being highlighted due to their high agricultural potential

Provinces within Beira, Nacala, and Zambezi Valley

Corridors1

NacalaNacala

BeiraBeira

Zambezi ValleyZambezi Valley

Pemba LichingaPemba Lichinga

MaputoMaputo

LimpopoLimpopo

Note: 1) Color coding represents approximate positioning of corridors; 2) Zambezi Valley Development Authority and Beira Agricultural Growth Corridor; 3) ProSAVANA in Nacala Corridor; 4) Nacala Economic Zone exists now with Beira Economic Zone plannedSource: PEDSA, Government and Expert Interviews

Six Corridors in Agricultural Strategy

Of the six corridors identified in

Mozambique’s strategy…

Of the six corridors identified in

Mozambique’s strategy…

…this action plan will focus on the following three

corridors

…this action plan will focus on the following three

corridors

Niassa

Gaza

Sofala

Zambezia

Manica

Nampula

Inhambane

Cabo Delgado

Maputo

Tete

Why These Three Corridors Have

Significant Potential Agricultural

opportunity due to soil and climate, while most of country’s water is here

Level of existing or planned infrastructure, including ports

Existing framework to attract / manage investments2

Alignment with other efforts3

Economic zones4

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Nacala Agricultural Growth Corridor

Source: Ministry of Agriculture

The government has focused significant resources and business-friendly investment programs on the Nacala Corridor

Investments MadeInvestments MadeAttractiveness of NacalaAttractiveness of Nacala

Nacala Special

Economic Zone

Nacala Special Economic Zone provides 500 ha industrial free zone with no VAT and customs duties, as well as technical assistance

Nacala Port Potential

Upgrade of the deepest port on East African coast at Nacala

Mining USD 4.4B upgrade to

rail by Vale

Demand from Mining

The mining sector is increasing demand for agricultural products; currently imported from South Africa at high cost

Bananas Matanuska: USD 60M

invested to date focused on bananas

Forestry

Green Resources: USD 2.2B eucalyptus plantation and industrial infrastructure

Soybeans

Rei do Agro: Mozambican company investing USD 5M for soy and maize production

Land Mapping

The Pro Savannah project is mapping land potential

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Zambezi Valley Corridor

Zambezi Valley has the greatest agricultural potential, with the highest concentration of the country’s water resources

Note:1) PROIRRI project is part of both the Beira and Nacala CorridorsSource: Zambezi Valley Development Agency

Investments MadeInvestments MadeAttractiveness of Zambezi ValleyAttractiveness of Zambezi Valley

Vast Water Reserves

80% of the country’s water reserves are found in the Zambezi Valley corridor

Agro-Processing

Chinese government USD 50M investment for cotton, maize, and rice processing facilities

Irrigation1

USD 70M World Bank PROIRRI irrigation project, mainly aimed at irrigation for rice

Port Infrastructure

Estimated USD 1B port investments by Rio Tinto

RiceOlam is investing USD

50M over the next 4 years

Broad Crop Variety

Diverse topography and good rainfall during cropping season provides perfect climate for a variety of crops

Large Local Demand

Local market potential as one of the most densely populated provinces

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Beira Agricultural Growth Corridor

Investments MadeInvestments MadeAttractiveness of BeiraAttractiveness of Beira

Infrastructure and

Connectivity to Region

Well-developed infrastructure with road and rail network linking Zambia, Malawi, Zimbabwe and Mozambique to the port of Beira

Demand from Mining

Activities

A number of multi-billion dollar mining investments are going ahead, which will improve access to infrastructure in the region and boost local demand

Catalytic Fund

USD 20M for the BAGC Catalytic Fund

First catalytic fund dedicated to agriculture in Africa, which is already leading to a number of investments

Irrigation1

USD 70M World Bank PROIRRI irrigation project, mainly aimed at irrigation for rice

Beira PortUSD 67M from JICA and

EU for upgrades to the Port of Beira

Beira currently has the most developed infrastructure and linkages to neighboring countries

Note: 1) PROIRRI project is part of both the Beira and Nacala CorridorsSource: BAGC

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Additional Growth Corridors

Pemba-LichingaPemba-Lichinga

The other corridors – Pemba-Lichinga, Limpopo, and Maputo – also present potential and additional value chains

Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Expert interviews

LimpopoLimpopo MaputoMaputo

Attractiveness

Crop Potential

Higher altitudes inland are very well suited to crops such as soybeans

Significant investment underway to complete a road connecting Lichinga to Malema by 2014

Large tracts of available land provide easier expansion opportunities

Soybeans, maize, potatoes, wheat, beans, cotton, tobacco, poultry, and aquaculture

Attractiveness

Crop Potential

Well established irrigation infrastructure in Chókwè can facilitate production

Features technological support from the South Investigation Center based in Chókwè

Quality road infrastructure connects to Maputo

Rice, sugar, vegetables, livestock, and poultry

Attractiveness

Crop Potential

Proximity to Mozambique’s largest city and South Africa provide strong market potential

Most extensive infrastructure in both roads and port availability further facilitate market access

Rice, vegetables, fruits, livestock, and poultry

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Agenda

Why Invest in Agriculture in Mozambique

Agribusiness Strategy and Corridor Attractiveness

Agribusiness Opportunities in Mozambique

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Highlights of Highlights of OpportunitiesOpportunities

III

Soybeans Banana

For the sixteen prioritized commodities, additional information is included in differing levels of detail to supplement the investment cases distributed during the Forum

I

Rationale for Rationale for Investment Investment DescribedDescribed

Sugar Cane Poultry

II

Commodities Analyzed

Rice

Cashew

Cassava

Sesame

Maize Cotton GroundnutsVegetables

Fruit PulsesAquacultureForestry Livestock

Tea

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Highlights of Highlights of OpportunitiesOpportunities

III

For the sixteen prioritized commodities, additional information is included in differing levels of detail to supplement the investment cases distributed during the Forum

Rationale for Rationale for Investment Investment DescribedDescribed

Sugar Cane Poultry

II

Commodities Analyzed

Cashew

Cassava Maize Cotton GroundnutsVegetables

Fruit PulsesAquacultureForestry Livestock

Tea

Soybeans Banana

I

Rice Sesame

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25

There are business opportunities in several parts of the value chain as well as for an integrated producer

One of those opportunities is a medium-size milling facility, which requires investment of ~USD 5M

Would be supported by 3,000-5,000 smallholder farmers

There are business opportunities in several parts of the value chain as well as for an integrated producer

One of those opportunities is a medium-size milling facility, which requires investment of ~USD 5M

Would be supported by 3,000-5,000 smallholder farmers

Major gap exists between domestic production and demand Climate and soil are very well-suited to rice, with

opportunities for year-round production Significant investment is underway, which may dramatically

improve current infrastructure and raise rice yields

Major gap exists between domestic production and demand Climate and soil are very well-suited to rice, with

opportunities for year-round production Significant investment is underway, which may dramatically

improve current infrastructure and raise rice yields

MarketMarket

Investment OpportunitiesInvestment

Opportunities

Executive Summary

Rice

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Production growth has not been able to overcome demand growth – keeping imports high

Source: IRRI, FAOSTATS, USDA

Growth PotentialGrowth Potential

MarketMarket

Mozambique has the 3rd highest rice consumption in SADC, but is mostly dependent on imported rice– Unlike neighbor countries, the share of

imports has not reduced over time and instead remains around ~60%

– Despite the significant growth potential for rice (Mozambique’s climate and soil are considered very well-suited to rice), domestic production has only grown at the same rate as imports

Without increased local production, this gap will only grow due to a projected 7% domestic demand increase per year

455239

+90%

20092000

0%

20112006 201020092005 20082007

80%

60%

40%

20%

2004

62%

9%

Consumption of Rice (in ‘000 tonnes)

Share of Imported Rice on Local Consumption

MalawiZambiaMozambique

Gap: Neighbor countries reduced

imports to ~10%

Gap: Neighbor countries reduced

imports to ~10%

Rice consumption has doubled over the past decade, but without significant reductions in rice importations

Rice – Market Analysis (1/2)

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27

Note: 1) Areas non identified; 2) IRRI has three research and development regions in Mozambique: Maputo and Xai-Xai for irrigated conditions and Quelimane for rain fed condition. Source: Interviews, Africa Agriculture News, World Bank, OLAM, IRRI, Monitor Analysis

Ubunto: Rice production and processing facility in

Matutuine Partnership with the Libyan Investment Fund Processes 600 ton/ day and sells ~27,000 ton/

year

USD 50 M

~USD 33 M

N/A

Large, Recent InvestmentsLarge, Recent Investments

MarketMarket

NON-EXHAUSTIVENON-EXHAUSTIVE

OLAM: Rice production and processing facility in

Zambezia, expanded over the next 5 years Partnership with local producers, also used for

cotton

World Bank1: Investments plan to improve agriculture

infrastructure of over the next five years, specifically with irrigation development

~USD 70 M

International Rice Research Institute2: Present in Mozambique since 2006, focusing on rice

breeding, socio economic studies, crop production, productivity and private sector-village programs

Investment Expected

11

22

33

44

Niassa

Gaza

Sofala

Zambezia

Manica

Nampula

Inhambane

Cabo Delgado

Maputo

Tete

KeyGeographies

11

2244

44

44

>20%

>10%

>1%

~0%

> 30%

% National Production

Significant investment is underway by the government, private sector, and development partners to grow rice production

Rice – Market Analysis (2/2)

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Note: 1) Inputs offered by the mill includes irrigation, selected seeds, fertilizers and chemicals; they are offered as a way to obtain a more homogeneous and high quality supply of paddies; 2) In South Africa, this percentage is ~9%. Source: Interviews, Agrifood (2005), Monitor Analysis

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

Value Chain AnalysisValue Chain Analysis

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Inputs MillingProduction

Seed Importer Research Center

No specific names

Current Situation

PotentialOpportunities

Players

Leasing of machines Irrigated farms

Typically integrated if larger player

Independent mills Integrated mills

OLAM Inácio de Souza Moçfer

Only 3% of small and medium-size rice farmers use improved seeds

Lower yields as farmers frequently are not leveraging optimal farming technique, including irrigation practices

~15% grains lost after harvest because of old machinery1

Capacity incompatible with expected raise of production

Several entry opportunities exist throughout the rice value chain

Rice – Investment Opportunities (1/3)

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Note: 1) Potential irrigation to assist farmers not modeledSource: Interviews, Agrifood (2005), Monitor Analysis

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

Rice Mill FacilityRice Mill Facility

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Inputs MillingProduction

ILUSTRATIVEILUSTRATIVE

SmallholderFarm

Mills MarketRiceTraining1

High-Quality Paddy

“Invest ~USD 5 M in a Rice Mill to process rice in partnership with smallholders farmers”

Sourcing Model: 100% small/ medium size

farmers (training, seeds, credit)

Sourcing Model: 100% small/ medium size

farmers (training, seeds, credit)

11Processing: more

than 30,000 tonnes/ year

Processing: more than 30,000 tonnes/

year

22Targets: Domestic

consumers

Targets: Domestic

consumers

33Own Company

Partner/ Consumers

Legend: (Color of Pictures)

Seed Seller

Money

Selected Seeds

In the proposed investment, the mill assumes a central role in the rice value chain, including supporting famers to improve quality and yields

Rice – Investment Opportunities (2/3)

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+ Irrigation, Training, Seeds

Rice Mill FacilityRice Mill FacilityPRELIMINARYPRELIMINARY

Expected Margins by Share of High-Quality Grain

(in %, 2012)Key-Financial Indicators

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

Farmers’ Yields: may vary from 2 ton/ ha (rain fed farm) to 4 ton/ ha (irrigated farm)

Number of smallholders supported: between 3,000 and 5,000 farms1

Price per kg: USD 1/ kg (whole grain), USD 0.75/ kg (broken) and USD 0.3/ kg (bran)

Expected margin: typically vary from 20% to 22%, but with potential to raise up to 25%

Investment estimated: acquisition of small mill may require investment of ~USD 5M2

Return expected: similar investments has reported IRR between 13% and 15%

Note: 1) Dependent of the extend of irrigation used; 2) Potential irrigation to assist farmers not modeledSource: Interviews, Monitor Analysis

40%

Average Practices

25%

22%

45%

30%

24%

20%

25%

35%

Improved

Practices

30%

35%

20%

Margin (Post-tax)

Broken Grain (%)

Whole Grain (%)

Improved farming techniques can help

achieve greater rice quality, helping push margins

towards 25%

Improved farming techniques can help

achieve greater rice quality, helping push margins

towards 25%

Investing in a rice mill in Mozambique is an attractive opportunity for investment, with significant margins and meaningful social impacts

Rice – Investment Opportunities (3/3)

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31

There are business opportunities throughout much of the value chain, as well as for an integrated producer

A ~USD 4.5 M soy extraction & refining center was selected as an example, utilizing 3,500-4,000 hectares of soybean fields as inputs

~1,400 smallholder farmers included into the supply chain

There are business opportunities throughout much of the value chain, as well as for an integrated producer

A ~USD 4.5 M soy extraction & refining center was selected as an example, utilizing 3,500-4,000 hectares of soybean fields as inputs

~1,400 smallholder farmers included into the supply chain

Demand for soybeans is increasing due to the development of poultry and soy oil sectors

Downstream markets are highly dependent on imported inputs

High availability of natural resources may benefit expansion of soybeans crop

Demand for soybeans is increasing due to the development of poultry and soy oil sectors

Downstream markets are highly dependent on imported inputs

High availability of natural resources may benefit expansion of soybeans crop

MarketMarket

Investment OpportunitiesInvestment

Opportunities

Executive Summary

Soybeans

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Poultry industry: Though soy is a small share of feed by volume, it represent almost half of costs

MarketMarket

Others

Costs26%

Feed74%

Costs for Chicken Producers in Mozambique

(2005)

37% of total costs (50% of feed costs) corresponds to soy

cake expenses

37% of total costs (50% of feed costs) corresponds to soy

cake expenses

Composition of Poultry Feed, Volume (2005)

Soy Cake

20%

Others

20%

Non-Maize

40%

Maize

60%

Feed

100%

1 kg Poultry Feed =

1 kg Poultry Feed =

Source: TechnoServe

Soy Cake: Strategic SegmentSoy Cake: Strategic Segment

Poultry’s consumption is growing throughout Southern Africa and is projected to continue expanding in Mozambique at 13% per year over the next decade

Government is actively encouraging growth of domestic soybean industry to substitute imported soy cake, which is a critical and expensive feed component for poultry

Importation of high-priced soy cake is driving up prices for domestic poultry, making competition with imported chicken difficult

– Leading component of domestic poultry cost is feed (~74%)

– Local production of soy cake should reduce costs, improving competitiveness of the poultry industry

Soy cake is a considerable cost for the poultry industry and could be a key driver of domestic production substitution of imported chicken

Soybeans – Market Analysis (1/2)

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Geography: Historically, crude soy oil is imported and then processed in refineries for further sale

MarketMarket

Domestic soy oil market is nascent and lacks constant input supply, relying almost entirely on imports

However, interest is increasing as soy oil can attract a higher price point (18%) than vegetable oil blends, mainly made from palm oil (an inferior substitute)

When soy cake is separated for soy oil domestically, much of byproduct oil is not utilized, providing a market opportunity

This opportunity will only continue to expand as poultry demand, and consequently soy cake production, increases

Source: TechnoServe

Soy Oil: Potential to GrowSoy Oil: Potential to Grow

Soy Oil Market in Mozambique (2011)

North: feed manufactures

frequently waste soy oil by-product after

processing soy cake

North: feed manufactures

frequently waste soy oil by-product after

processing soy cake

North & Center: limited soy oil

processing, but growing interest

North & Center: limited soy oil

processing, but growing interest

South: more mature and largest soy oil market,

refineries import crude oil and refine oil for sale

South: more mature and largest soy oil market,

refineries import crude oil and refine oil for sale

North & Center: limited soy oil

processing, but growing interest

North & Center: limited soy oil

processing, but growing interest

Niassa

Gaza

Sofala

Zambezia

Manica

Nampula

Inhambane

Cabo Delgado

Maputo

Tete

Opportunity to refine “waste” byproduct oil from processing soy cake in North will continue to grow with expansion of soy industry

Soybeans – Market Analysis (2/2)

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34

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

Source: Interviews, TechnoServe Analysis, Monitor Analysis

Value Chain AnalysisValue Chain Analysis

Infr

ast

ructu

reIn

frast

ructu

re

Soybean Input Supplier: Lack of availability of seed and inoculants

Soybean Farming: Insufficient soybean production exists within country to meet demand

Poultry: Opportunity to compete with imports to meet growing need of livestock farmers

Soybean Processing: Additional capacity required for expected growth in demandOil Refining: Current waste of oil byproduct by soy cake manufacturers

Soybean Storage: Insufficient warehouses and silos for storage of locally produced grains

Segment Current Situation Opportunity Players

Seed Importer Fertilizer Factory

Farm

Processing & Refining Facility

Feed Manufacturing

Silos Warehouses

Rei do Agro Pannar

N/A

Mafuia Oil Sanoil JAM

Novos Horizontes Abilios Atunes

N/A

There are opportunities in numerous parts of the value chain, as well as for an integrated producer

Soybeans – Investment Opportunities (1/3)

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35

Soy Extraction & Refining CenterSoy Extraction & Refining Center

Source: Interviews, TechnoServe, Monitor Analysis

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

PRELIMINARYPRELIMINARY

InfrastructureInfrastructure

Inputs Production Process & Refining Demand

Soybeans

Soy

Cake

CrudeSoy Oil

RefinedSoy Oil

SmallholderFarm

Medium-SizeFarm

Processing

Oil Refining

LivestockFeed

Development

MarketSourcing Model:

20% from own farm and 80% from smallholders

(assistance for training, seed

selection, credit)

Sourcing Model: 20% from own farm

and 80% from smallholders

(assistance for training, seed

selection, credit)

11

Targets: Domestic

consumers

Targets: Domestic

consumers

Targets: Domestic

consumers

Targets: Domestic

consumers

44

Feed

Own Company

Partner/ Consumers

Legend: (Color of Pictures)

Invest ~USD 4.5 M in a Soy Extraction & Refining Center, with inputs and training to get new smallholder farmers into the supply chain to enhance supply

Processing Facility:

Capacity to process more than 9 M ton/

year of soybeans

Processing Facility:

Capacity to process more than 9 M ton/

year of soybeans

22

Products: Refined Soy Oil

& Soy Cake

Products: Refined Soy Oil

& Soy Cake

33

Soybeans – Investment Opportunities (2/3)

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Soy Extraction & Refining CenterSoy Extraction & Refining Center

Note: 1) Dependent of the number of smallholders added by year; 2) Potential irrigation to assist farmers not modeledSource: Interviews, TechnoServe, Monitor Analysis

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

PRELIMINARYPRELIMINARY

4,9834,607

3,646

1,779

76

Year 5

27%

Year 4

29%

Year 3

22%

Year 2

10%

Year 1

-524%

EBITDA Margin

Revenue

Revenue & EBITDA Margin Expected

(in ‘000 USD and %, 2014-2018) Famers’ Yields: between 1.0 ton/ ha (rain

fed farm) and 3.0 ton/ ha (irrigated farm) Crop Sales Price: USD 0.39/ kg Number of smallholders: increase from

500 up to 1,600, with average land of 2 ha/ farm

Cost per hectare: between USD 320/ ha and USD 1,100/ ha1

Investment estimated: total CapEx of ~USD 4.5 M2, ~90% invested on the first two years

Return expected: similar investments has reported IRR up to 19%

Key-Financial Indicators

Invest in a soy extraction & refining center in Mozambique to achieve attractive margins and returns, with strong social impact

Soybeans – Investment Opportunities (3/3)

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37

Value chain integration is the basis for an attractive investment prospect

Opportunity for an investment of $5–6M in a 300 hectares commercial banana plantation leveraging nearby producers to achieve scale at lower investment levels

Value chain integration is the basis for an attractive investment prospect

Opportunity for an investment of $5–6M in a 300 hectares commercial banana plantation leveraging nearby producers to achieve scale at lower investment levels

Opportunity to meaningfully increase Mozambique’s banana exports– Demand imbalances exist in the Middle East, the

Mediterranean, and to a lesser extent Southern Africa– Year-round, high-yield crop potential within

Mozambique provides additional export opportunities and improved margins

Potential for lower farm costs than other competitors

Opportunity to meaningfully increase Mozambique’s banana exports– Demand imbalances exist in the Middle East, the

Mediterranean, and to a lesser extent Southern Africa– Year-round, high-yield crop potential within

Mozambique provides additional export opportunities and improved margins

Potential for lower farm costs than other competitors

MarketMarket

Investment OpportunitiesInvestment

Opportunities

Executive Summary

Banana

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38

Note: 1) Assuming direct shippingSource: FAOSTAT; Interviews with experts; TechnoServe, Abt, Monitor Analysis

Mozambique Competitive AdvantageMozambique Competitive Advantage

MarketMarket

+15%

+3%

+6%

Southern Asia

258

Middle East

550443

Mediterranean

1,600

9942009

2001

Ability to feed large demand imbalances in the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and to a lesser extent Southern Africa

– Demand imbalances have increased at different paces in these regions over the last years, with greatest growth in Europe

– Europe: Has competitive export tariff advantage for African countries over most of Latin America, (value of USD 3 per box)

– Middle East: Mozambique has 8 to 10 days1 vs. 20 days shipping transit time to Middle East when compared to Latin America and Philippines

– Mozambique’s lower farm to port costs than Philippines, coupled with Philippines production being diverted to China, has heightened opportunity in the Middle East

Banana Trade Balance(in ‘000 tonnes, 2001 – 2009)

$8.10$7.50

+8%

PhilippinesMozambique

Mozambique’s banana industry is well situated to benefit from both its geographical position as well as potential cost advantage

Farm to Port Costs(in USD)

CAGR

Banana – Market Analysis (1/2)

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MarketMarket

Note: 1) Libombos Macadamia, Frutas Libombos, AAA Enterprises, Tropical Fruit and Rio VerdeSource: CEPAGRI; Interviews with experts; TechnoServe, Abt, Monitor Analysis

While companies in the South focus on internal markets and neighbor countries, companies in North focus on overseas markets

Matanuska: invested $60M to date to develop a 3,000 ha plantation in Nampula province

– At full production, Matanuska plans to ship 100 containers per week

Bananalândia: exports 40,000 tonnes (80% of total production) mainly for South Africa, Swaziland and Botswana

Conglomerate of 5 companies1: exported 35,000 tonnes per year and created 2,500 direct jobs

11

22

North: exporting bananas to mainly Middle East from

Nacala port

North: exporting bananas to mainly Middle East from

Nacala port

South: responsible to supply Maputo metropolitan area and

neighbor countries

South: responsible to supply Maputo metropolitan area and

neighbor countries

Niassa

Gaza

Sofala

Zambezia

Manica

Nampula

Inhambane

Cabo Delgado

Maputo

Tete11

22

Banana Market in Mozambique

3333

Main Companies

NON EXHAUSTIVENON EXHAUSTIVE

Banana – Market Analysis (2/2)

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40

Cleaning &

Packaging

Agent Fees

Transport

Ripening19%

30%

38%

13%

Note: 1) Percent of value added in the value chainSource: GDS; Monitor Analysis

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

Farming Post-Harvest Handling Transport & Marketing

Value chain integration is the basis for an attractive investment prospect, with involvement from farm production through delivery

36%136%1 3%13%1 61%161%1

Transportation and Marketing Value Chain(% of total value added)

Transport cost is one of the main drivers of costs

– It constitutes almost 20% of the total farm-to-market value chain, thus being a key competitiveness driver for exports

Another important part of the value chain is the cleaning, packaging and ripening of bananas

– Usually small producers do not capture much of the potential value of their investments because they lack these facilities

Banana – Investment Opportunities (1/2)

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Mid-Size BananaPlantation in Nampula

Mid-Size BananaPlantation in Nampula

Source: Interviews with experts; TechnoServe, Monitor Analysis

PRELIMINARYPRELIMINARY

Potential Margin per Yield

Investment: $5-6M in a 300 hectares commercial plantation

Yields: typical yields range from 36 tonnes/ha – 40 tonnes/ha, with more possible

Revenue: about $5.0M with potential to increase with higher yield

Net Income: about $1M per year with potential to increase with yield increase

Expected IRR: may vary from 15% - 17% with up to potentially 20%

Key-Financial Indicators

Investment Opportunity

Investment Opportunity

With yields above 40 tonnes / hectare, variable costs become

much lower, leading to even more attractive margins

With yields above 40 tonnes / hectare, variable costs become

much lower, leading to even more attractive margins

15%20%

44 tonnes

/ hectare

40 tonnes

/ hectare

36 tonnes

/ hectare

A mid-size commercial banana plantation could generate about ~$1 M in net income per year with potential margin increase as yields rise

Potential Margin Increase

Banana – Investment Opportunities (2/2)

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42

Note: 1) Highest recorded pricesSource: TechnoServe; SNV; Expert Interviews; Monitor Analysis

Mozambique has ideal growing conditions for sesame, especially in the tropical and sub-tropical climates along the coast

Mozambique could export sesame to markets in the Middle East, Asia and Europe– More immediate opportunities are in export of sesame seed, while with increased

production processing in to sesame oil may become viable– Sesame is currently mostly exported to Asia and the Middle East with no processing– Opportunity for export of cleaned and de-hulled sesame seed to premium

confectionary market in Europe

22

11

Sesame Prices by End Use1 (USD/ metric ton, 2011)

1,5001,250

1,0501,000

Confectionary OrganicOil Tahini

Mozambique has the opportunity to build origin identity to satisfy niche markets for organic and fair trade sesame– As an emerging grower, the current

volumes grown could justify entering these niche markets for potentially higher margins

Sesame provides high income for farmers, with farmers capturing ~50% of FOB value

33

Confectionary and organic markets provide the highest levels of incomeConfectionary and organic markets provide the highest levels of income

44

Sesame is an emerging crop in Mozambique with high potential for higher valued exports such as the premium confectionary market ,and organic/ fair trade sesame

Sesame – Market Analysis MarketMarket

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43

Highlights of Highlights of OpportunitiesOpportunities

III

Soybeans Banana

For the sixteen prioritized commodities, additional information is included in differing levels of detail to supplement the investment cases distributed during the Forum

I

Commodities Analyzed

Rice Sesame

Fruit PulsesAquacultureForestry Livestock

Rationale for Rationale for Investment Investment DescribedDescribed

Sugar Cane Poultry

II

Cashew

Cassava Maize Cotton GroundnutsVegetables

Tea

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Note: 1) Agreement signed in 2011; SACU (Southern Africa Customs Union) is the group formed by Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland. Source: Balanço Anual do Açucar (2011)

More Competitive, Sugar Farmers Could Raise Production and Export More

With higher yields, Mozambique has produced and exported more sugar over the past 5 years

87828171656863

2015e

4.4

2012e

3.9

2011

3.4

2010

2.7

2009

2.3

2008

2.1

2007

2.0

Production (Mt)

Yield (ton/ ha)

Sugar Cane Production (real values and estimative)

Sugar Exports (in ‘000 tonnes)

195

111

+76%

20112007

Sugar Cane – Market Analysis

Domestic production has almost doubled over the last 5 years and is expected to keep growing in both yield and area

11

Commercial agreements in EU and SACU1 allow for exporting with favorable financial conditions

33

Environment conditions and increased training favor the production of sugar cane, such as:

– Optimal weather conditions and high-quality, available land benefit the sector’s expansion

– Training of local farmers, including more than USD13 MM in transference of technologies to sugar farmers from Europe, has enhanced the quality and yield of sugar cane harvested

22

Growing exports for sugar highlight increased market potential in the future

44

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Significant Potential for Import Substitution Makes Poultry a Strong Investment

Demand for poultry has grown meaningfully across Africa

– Poultry’s consumption has more than doubled in over 10 African countries over the last decade, with high dependence of imports from Brazil, Asia, and US

– Opportunity for local players to supply this demand due to geographic advantages

While domestic demand in Mozambique has grown slightly in past, future demand is expected to more than triple in the next 10 years

– Impact of considerable growth in mining as well as oil and gas sectors on working population will help full domestic demand

Feed costs correspond to ~75% of total costs – with growth in the domestic soy cake industry, potential for reduced input costs could further drive demand

Poultry Consumption in Africa (in ‘000 tonnes)

Zimbabwe

5724

Angola

14555

South Africa

1,228904

2007

2000

+36% +164% +133%

African countries has reported meaningful growth in demand for poultry meat

Poultry Consumption in Mozambique (in ‘000 tonnes)

2020e

137

2010e

42

2000

35

Poultry consumption has grown less in Mozambique, but future growth is expected

+21%+226%

Note: Djibouti, Comoros, Cape Verde, Ghana, Gabon, Gambia, Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Zimbabwe, Congo, Sao Tome and Principe and Guinea. Source: FAO, USAID, TechnoServe, Monitor Analysis

Poultry – Market Analysis

22

11

33

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One of country’s larger export crops, with opportunity to recapture past success

Tea – Market Analysis

Source: Balanço Anual do Açucar; Expert Interviews; Monitor Analysis

Despite much higher yields than before the civil war, total production is lower due to unused land– Signifies opportunity for potential

investors who wants to capture unused potential

8.0

5.5

20111973

Yield(tonnes/ha)

Total Production(tonnes)

2011

32.0

1973

89.0

11

Production is increasing rapidly

31.527.0

+17%

20112010

Production(tonnes)

Mozambique’s tea industry is undergoing impressive growth with a 16% production increase in the last year

There is still available, unutilized land with high tea growing potential– Zambezia province alone has 39,000

hectares in Gurue, Ille, and Milange districts

– Of 22,400 hectares specifically allocated for tea, only 18% are in use

33

22

Great potential exist to utilize available land to increase production

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Opportunity to Regain Position as One of World’s Top Exporters

Cashew – Market Analysis

Source: FAOSTAT; TechnoServe; African Cashew Initiative; INCAJU; Expert Interviews; Monitor Analysis

Prior to independence in 1975, Mozambique was one of the leading producers / exporters of cashew nuts, evidencing the country’s suitable climatic conditions and knowledge– Production was once as high as 200,000

metric tons (versus 65,000 today) A significant limiting factor on Mozambique’s

success (diseased trees), can be relatively cost effectively prevented– Spraying the trees against disease

greatly improves productivity

22

11 Cashews can be grown throughout much of the country, but are particularly successful in the Nacala corridor

Significant government and donor efforts are underway to revitalize the industry. For example:– INCAJU (Government Cashew Initiative)

plans to grow 3.3 million cashew saplings in 2012 to be planted as new trees

– TechnoServe now supports 16 cashew processing plants with ~36,000 metric tons processing capacity

33

Niassa

Gaza- 8%

Sofala

Zambezia- 9%

Manica

Nampula- 41%

Inhambane- 23%

Cabo Delgado- 13%

Maputo

Tete

According to INCAJU, ~40% of

cashew nut production occurs in Nampula. Most

efforts in the cashew industry

are focused in this province

According to INCAJU, ~40% of

cashew nut production occurs in Nampula. Most

efforts in the cashew industry

are focused in this province

Main Cashew Producing Regions

107

3

Sprayed TreeYield GapCurrent Yield

Spraying trees greatly increases productivity

Cashew nut yields(kg/tree)

44

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New Processing Technology Expands Market Opportunities for Cassava

Cassava – Market Analysis

Cassava significantly outpaces other staple crops in Mozambique

Average Quantity Consumed per Year(kg/person)

Cassava Cost (as % of other commodities)

Potential for Wheat Substitution in Bread(in ‘000 tonnes, 2009)

Lower cassava costs create opportunities for wheat substitution in bread production

Up to 25% of wheat in bread can be substituted by cassava

Note: 1) Wheat has the highest production deficit in MozambiqueSource: FAOSTAT; MSU; Promar; Monitor Analysis

Cassava does and will continue to have a strong demand advantage versus other staple crops in Mozambique, particularly in the north– Cassava is an easy-to-produce and drought-

resistant crop with food security importance Substitution opportunities exist for cassava within

Mozambique, given strong cost advantages over other commodities – Cost for cassava is roughly half of some related

commodities– Example: Up to 25% of wheat1 used in bread can

be substituted by cassava at 55% of cost Potentially significant market opportunities have

been created by a mobile cassava processing unit created by DADTCO– This allows for additional uses of cassava in

livestock feed, industrial raw materials, alcohol brewing, and ethanol

– For example: SABMiller will invest an additional $124 M over the next two years to continue to develop its cassava beer (Impala), made possible by the mobile processing units

Maize

60%

Wheat

55%

Potential for Cassava

Substitution

86

Wheat Used in Bread Industry

343

87152058

247

OthersRiceWheatMaizeCassava

22

33

11

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Opportunity to Substitute Imports, Meet Poultry Demand Growth and Boost Rural Income

Maize – Market Analysis

Source: FAO; USAID; Monitor Analysis

Maize is one of the most consumed staple crops in southern African, with high relevance in terms of food security

Though 71% of all farms in Mozambique produce some maize, most rural households are net buyers, and the country need to import ~99,000 MT yearly

Additionally, increasing demand for feed will parallel poultry industry growth in domestic and foreign market, including meaningful exports to Malawi and Zimbabwe

Several key investments – particularly in the high potential Northwest of Zambezia, West of Nampula, or Central and South of Niassa – could help transform the country into a regional breadbasket

– E.g.: Invest in silos and adequate storage processes to reduce post-harvest waste and aflatoxin contamination

11

22

33

44

Area Harvested, ‘000 ha (2010)

FOOD SECURITY &NUTRITIONAL IMPORTANCE

916

1,293

1,812

Legumes

Cassava

Maize #01

#02

#03

Food Consumption, in % of total consumed (2004)

Cassava

Sorghum 6%

27%Maize

35% #01

#02

#03

Pulses

14%

36%

Cassava

13%

Maize #01

#02

#03

CALORIESCALORIES

PROTEINSPROTEINS

LANDLAND

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Opportunity to Substitute Imports and Export Additional Crops to Nearby Countries

Vegetables in Mozambique are an important income earner with high growth forecasted

– Despite occupying only 6.6% of cultivated land, they accounted for USD 15M and 3,500 jobs in 2009

– World Bank projects the total formal domestic vegetable market will be USD 100M by 2021 from USD 65M in 2006

Vegetables present a significant opportunity for import substitution within Mozambique

– The three largest vegetable crops are tomato1, potato, and onion. Combined they represent a local supply deficit of 310,000 metric tons

22

11

Consumption of Vegetable Crops (metric tons, 2011)

44%

56%

379.250

69%

31%

283.800

40%60%

133.250

Potato OnionTomato

Import

Production

Export of vegetables is also an option for Mozambique

– Most of Southern Africa cannot produce frost-sensitive export crops like baby-corn, beans, and chilies during winter months but Mozambique can, particularly in the tropical coastal climates found in the Beira corridor

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– Recent entrance of supermarkets such as Shoprite and Game, as well as mining operations, provide potentially large buyers of locally grown vegetables

Note: 1) Actually a fruit, but grouped with other key value chains of potatoes and onionsSource: TechnoServe; Ministry of Agriculture; World Bank; Monitor Analysis

Vegetables – Market Analysis

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A long, successful history of export, with significant productivity improvement potential

Cotton – Market Analysis

Source: TechnoServe; GDS; Interview with experts; Monitor Analysis

Low yield provides opportunity for productivity increase in the country

Cotton Yield by Country(kg/ha)

World Average

High potential for increased productivity

– Current productivity is one of the lowest in the world (380 kg/ha)

Opportunities for ginning of cotton for export of high quality cotton lint and processing of cotton seed into oil and cake

Mozambique’s cotton lint has a long history in accessing important international markets, traditionally in Europe as well as more recently in Asia

11

33

22

315.0

572.0745.0

1,270.0

1,700.0

Kenya Mozambique India

380.0

USAChinaIsrael

Possibilities for Cotton Production

Cotton Lint

Cotton Oil

Cotton

Cotton Seed

Cotton Seed Cake

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Production has been increasing rapidly to meet food and oil demand growth

Significant production growth in Mozambique

Peanut Production(MM tonnes)

CAGR

Note: 1) Does not include production from palm treesSource: TechnoServe; Minister of Agriculture and Fisheries (Nampula Province); Nutrition Data; Interview with experts; Monitor Analysis

High potential in domestic market as well as import substitution for vegetable oil from seeds

– Oil yield can reach up to 45-50%, against 20% of soy and cotton

– There is interest by ICRISAT and other research institutions to develop new higher oil variations – further increasing productivity

High energy and protein food that has multiple food uses, particularly in comparison to most common crops in Mozambique

– Can be consumed in its raw form, boiled or even roasted

– Groundnuts can also be used to produce processed food, such as peanut butter

Already, widely grown in Mozambique, groundnut production has been increasingly rapidly to meet growing demand

– 30% CAGR since 2004

22

33

10337

+30%

2009E2004/05

0.91.66.0

0.30.12.8

MaizeCassavaGroundnuts

Proteins

(per 10 grams)

Calories

(per gram)Nutrition Facts Comparison

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Groundnuts is an important crop that can be used for oil production

Oilseed Production1

(ha, 2007)

Oil Imports(000’s tons,

2009)

190133297

620

OthersCottonGroundnutsTotal Total

132.2

Groundnuts – Market Analysis

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Soybeans Banana

For the sixteen prioritized commodities, additional information is included in differing levels of detail to supplement the investment cases distributed during the Forum

I

Rationale for Rationale for Investment Investment DescribedDescribed

Sugar Cane Poultry

II

Commodities Analyzed

Rice

Cashew

Cassava

Sesame

Maize Cotton GroundnutsVegetables

Tea

Highlights of Highlights of OpportunitiesOpportunities

III

Fruit PulsesAquacultureForestry Livestock

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Increased aquaculture is required for sufficient domestic supply, as natural capture supply declines

High production potential of shrimp for both the domestic market and export– New technologies launched for shrimp which have created

sustainable farming

Increased aquaculture is required for sufficient domestic supply, as natural capture supply declines

High production potential of shrimp for both the domestic market and export– New technologies launched for shrimp which have created

sustainable farming

AQUACULTURE

A growing middle class places a higher demand on meat products within Mozambique

Currently high imports of beef, mainly from South Africa, provide opportunity for import substitution

Potential for production of pig, cattle, and goat for local consumption with significant export opportunities for goat meat to the Middle East

A growing middle class places a higher demand on meat products within Mozambique

Currently high imports of beef, mainly from South Africa, provide opportunity for import substitution

Potential for production of pig, cattle, and goat for local consumption with significant export opportunities for goat meat to the Middle East

LIVESTOCK

Large commercial plantations are already being developed in the northern and central regions– Green Resources: USD 2.2B eucalyptus plantation and

industrial infrastructure in Nampula Potential for export of timber products to Asia Low cost access to abundant land

– 26 million hectares potentially suitable for forestry

Large commercial plantations are already being developed in the northern and central regions– Green Resources: USD 2.2B eucalyptus plantation and

industrial infrastructure in Nampula Potential for export of timber products to Asia Low cost access to abundant land

– 26 million hectares potentially suitable for forestry

FORESTRY

Commodity Attractiveness (1/2)

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Commodity Attractiveness (2/2)

Tropical and sub-tropical fruits such as citrus, pineapples and mangoes have high production potential in Mozambique

Counter-seasonal demand with Middle East, India and European markets

Potential for year-round production of pineapple in Manica province

Value added fruit products such as dried fruit, jams and juice could be produced from fruit not meeting export quality grades

Tropical and sub-tropical fruits such as citrus, pineapples and mangoes have high production potential in Mozambique

Counter-seasonal demand with Middle East, India and European markets

Potential for year-round production of pineapple in Manica province

Value added fruit products such as dried fruit, jams and juice could be produced from fruit not meeting export quality grades

FRUIT

PULSES Major food crop with a wide range of varieties grown Counter-seasonality with India, which is a leading consumer of

pulses Potential to export pulses such as pigeon pea to Asia

Major food crop with a wide range of varieties grown Counter-seasonality with India, which is a leading consumer of

pulses Potential to export pulses such as pigeon pea to Asia