My Value Investing

8/10/2019 My Value Investing

1/54

Ticker

AAPLAnalyze US listed

companies by entering

their ticker symbol into the

orange cell on the left

AAPL

Company infoName

Industry

Market Cap (mil)

Exchange

Score

85 out of 100 1,043P/E Valuation

Fundamentals Judgement Points Weight

Return on Equity Good 9.09 5 Average estimateDebt/Equity Good 9.09 5 The estimate is

Conservative PEG ratio Average 0.91 1 Current share price

P/E ratio Good 3.64 2 Undervalued

Net margin Good 5.45 3 Max purchase price

Bookvalue per share Good 9.09 5

Growth rate next 5yr Relatively low 0.00 1

FCF yield High 1.82 1

Asset turnover change Bad 0.00 4

Current ratio Average 4.55 5

Altman Z Score Good 5.45 3

Accrual profit Reasonable 5.45 3

Defensive profit Positive & increasing 5.45 3

Enterprising profit Good 7.27 4

Debt Repayment Period Good 18.18 10

55

Creation date:

2/9/2014 7:53:00

Electronic Equipment

463,787

NASDAQ

Intrinsic value estimate

Apple Inc.

Price info


2/54


3/54

1,557 1,584 0DCF Valuation ROE Valuation P/S Valuation

1,395Unreliable

520

168%

862

s


4/54


5/54


6/54


7/54


8/54


9/54


10/54

Graphs

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

AverageP/E

Average P/E

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Price/Book

Time >

Price/Book

0.2

Debt/Equity


11/54

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

.

Debt/E

quityRatio

Time >


12/54

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Price/Sales

Time >

Price/Sales

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

Netmargin(%)

Time >

Net margin (%)

160.0

Book value per share


13/54

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

BookValu

epershare

Time >


14/54

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

ReturnonEquity

Time >

Return on Equity

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

ReturnonAssets

Time >

Return on Assets


15/54


16/54


17/54


18/54

In Millions of Rs (except for per share items)52 weeks ending

2013-09-28

52 weeks ending

2012-09-29Revenue 170910 156508

Other Revenue, Total - -

Total Revenue 170910 156508

Cost of Revenue, Total 106606 87846Gross Profit 64304 68662

Selling/General/Admin. Expenses, Total 10830 10040

Research & Development 4475 3381

Depreciation/Amortization - -

Interest Expense(Income) - Net Operating - -

Unusual Expense (Income) - -

Other Operating Expenses, Total - -

Total Operating Expense 121911 101267

Operating Income 48999 55241

Interest Income(Expense), Net Non-Operating - -

Gain (Loss) on Sale of Assets - -

Other, Net -24 -566

Income Before Tax 50155 55763

Income After Tax 37037 41733

Minority Interest - -

Equity In Affiliates - -

Net Income Before Extra. Items 37037 41733

Accounting Change - -

Discontinued Operations - -Extraordinary Item - -

Net Income 37037 41733

Preferred Dividends - -

Income Available to Common Excl. Extra Items 37037 41733

Income Available to Common Incl. Extra Items 37037 41733

Basic Weighted Average Shares - -

Basic EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items - -

Basic EPS Including Extraordinary Items - -

Dilution Adjustment 0 -

Diluted Weighted Average Shares 931.66 945.36

Diluted EPS Excluding Extraordinary Items 39.75 44.15Diluted EPS Including Extraordinary Items - -

Dividends per Share - Common Stock Primary Issue 11.4 2.65

Gross Dividends - Common Stock - -

Net Income after Stock Based Comp. Expense - -

Basic EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense - -

Diluted EPS after Stock Based Comp. Expense - -

Depreciation, Supplemental - -

Income statement


19/54

Total Special Items - -

Normalized Income Before Taxes - -

Effect of Special Items on Income Taxes - -

Income Taxes Ex. Impact of Special Items - -

Normalized Income After Taxes - -

Normalized Income Avail to Common - -

Basic Normalized EPS - -

Diluted Normalized EPS 39.75 44.15


20/54

52 weeks ending

2011-09-24

52 weeks ending

2010-09-25

In Millions of Rs (except for per

share items)108249 65225 Cash & Equivalents

- - Short Term Investments

108249 65225 Cash and Short Term Investments

64431 39541 Accounts Receivable - Trade, Net43818 25684 Receivables - Other

7599 5517 Total Receivables, Net

2429 1782 Total Inventory

- - Prepaid Expenses

- - Other Current Assets, Total

- - Total Current Assets

- - Property/Plant/Equipment, Total - Gross

74459 46840 Accumulated Depreciation, Total

33790 18385 Goodwill, Net

- - Intangibles, Net

- - Long Term Investments

-104 -156 Other Long Term Assets, Total

34205 18540 Total Assets

25922 14013 Accounts Payable

- - Accrued Expenses

- - Notes Payable/Short Term Debt

25922 14013 Current Port. of LT Debt/Capital Leases

- - Other Current liabilities, Total

- - Total Current Liabilities- - Long Term Debt

25922 14013 Capital Lease Obligations

- - Total Long Term Debt

25922 14013 Total Debt

25922 14013 Deferred Income Tax

- - Minority Interest

- - Other Liabilities, Total

- - Total Liabilities

- - Redeemable Preferred Stock, Total

936.64 924.71 Preferred Stock - Non Redeemable, Net

27.68 15.15 Common Stock, Total- - Additional Paid-In Capital

0 0 Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit)

- - Treasury Stock - Common

- - Other Equity, Total

- - Total Equity

- - Total Liabilities & Shareholders' Equity

- -Shares Outs - Common Stock Primary

Issue

Balance sheet


21/54

- - Total Common Shares Outstanding

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

- -

27.68 15.15


22/54

As of 2013-09-28 As of 2012-09-29 As of 2011-09-24 As of 2010-09-25

14259 10746 9815 11261

26287 18383 16137 14359

40546 29129 25952 25620

13102 10930 5369 5510- - - -

20641 18692 11717 9924

1764 791 776 1051

- - - -

10335 9041 6543 5083

73286 57653 44988 41678

28519 21887 11768 7234

-11922 -6435 -3991 -2466

1577 1135 896 741

4179 4224 3536 342

106215 92122 55618 25391

5146 5478 3556 2263

207000 176064 116371 75183

22367 21175 14632 12015

4782 3283 2428 1593

0 0 0 0

- - - -

16509 14084 10910 7114

43658 38542 27970 2072216960 - - -

- - - -

16960 0 0 0

16960 0 0 0

16489 13847 8159 4300

- - - -

6344 5465 3627 2370

83451 57854 39756 27392

- - - -

- - - -

19764 16422 13331 10668- - - -

104256 101289 62841 37169

- - - -

-105 8 23 35

123549 118210 76615 47791

207000 176064 116371 75183

- - - -


23/54


24/54

In Millions of Rs (except for per

share items)

52 weeks ending

2013-09-28

52 weeks ending

2012-09-29

52 weeks ending

2011-09-24Net Income/Starting Line 37037 41733 25922

Depreciation/Depletion 6757 3277 1814

Amortization - - -

Deferred Taxes 1141 4405 2868Non-Cash Items 2253 1740 1168

Changes in Working Capital 6478 -299 5757

Cash from Operating Activities 53666 50856 37529

Capital Expenditures -9076 -9402 -7452

Other Investing Cash Flow Items,

Total-24698 -38825 -32967

Cash from Investing Activities -33774 -48227 -40419

Financing Cash Flow Items -381 125 613

Total Cash Dividends Paid -10564 -2488 0

Issuance (Retirement) of Stock, Net -22330 665 831

Issuance (Retirement) of Debt, Net 16896 - -

Cash from Financing Activities -16379 -1698 1444

Foreign Exchange Effects - - -

Net Change in Cash 3513 931 -1446

Cash Interest Paid, Supplemental - - -

Cash Taxes Paid, Supplemental 9128 7682 3338

Cash flow statement


25/54


26/54

52 weeks ending

2010-09-2514013

1027

-

1440903

1212

18595

-2121

-11733

-13854

345

-

912

-

1257

-

5998

-

2697


27/54


28/54

20% annualy

25%

9%

5%

12

520

40

2.30%

1.49

54.94%

19.58%

21.53%

892.45

40,546 52,910

- 7,833

Enterprise Value 440,201

AVG P/EPRICE/

SALESPRICE/ BOOK

NET PROFIT

MARGIN (%)

9/4/2014 54.6 1.8 3.0 3.3

9/5/2014 34.4 3.3 6.0 9.6

9/6/2014 34.0 3.5 6.6 10.3

9/7/2014 39.1 5.7 9.2 14.6

9/8/2014 21.2 3.2 4.5 14.9

9/9/2014 20.4 3.9 5.3 19.2

9/10/2014 18.7 4.0 5.4 21.5

9/11/2014 13.8 3.3 4.6 23.9

9/12/2014 15.1 4.0 5.3 26.7

9/13/2014 12.0 2.6 3.5 21.7

Next 5 years EPS growth per year

Sustainable Growth Rate

Shares outstanding (mil)

Cash and Short Term InvestmentsCash from Operating Activities

EPS

Dividend Yield

Current ratio

Past 5 years EPS growth per year

Capital Expenditures

Year 10 FCF multiplier

Valuation inputs

Price

Conservatism inputs

Desired return on investment

Margin of Safety

Discount rate

Growth decline rate


29/54


30/54

BOOK

VALUE/

SHARE

DEBT/

EQUITY

RETURN ON EQUITY

(%)

9/4/2014 6.5 NA 5.9

9/5/2014 9.0 NA 21.3

9/6/2014 11.7 NA 22.8

9/7/2014 16.7 NA 28.5

9/8/2014 25.2 NA 27.2

9/9/2014 35.2 NA 31.3

9/10/2014 52.2 NA 35.3

9/11/2014 82.5 NA 41.7

9/12/2014 125.9 NA 42.8

9/13/2014 137.4 0.1 30.6

There is a known bug with the dates in the two tables above. It should be read as M/Y/D.


31/54


32/54

RETURN ON

ASSETS

(%)

INTEREST

COVERAGE

3.7 NA

13.6 NA

13.8 NA

16.4 NA

14.9 NA

18.9 NA

22.8 NA

27.1 NA

28.5 NA

19.3 369.8


33/54

Variable Value Judgement

Return on Equity 30.6 Good

Debt/Equity 0.14 Good

Conservative PEG ratio 1.17 Average

P/E ratio 12.89 GoodNet margin Stable/Increasing Good

Bookvalue per share Stable/Increasing GoodNext 5yr EPS growth

rate19.58% Relatively low

FCF yield 10.24% High

Asset turnover change -7.12% Bad

Current ratio 1.49 Average

Altman Z Score 5.28 Good

Accrual profit 40 Reasonable

Defensive profit 50Positive &

increasing

Enterprising profit 35.70% GoodDebt Repayment Period 0.38 Good

Value versus PriceAvg intrinsic value

estimate 1,395 Unreliable

Current price 520

Undervalued 168%

Max purchase price 862#REF!

Fundamental Analysi


34/54

Comments

Return on Equity is consistently high, company capital invested profitably

Firm not dependent on loans, low interest rate risk

Could be some potential

Currently trading at a multiple below the historic medianThe company is becoming more efficient and/or is able to increase its prices

The company is growing or maintaining its book value

Growth rate significantly below historic rate, is there something slowing this company down?

The company is generating healthy levels of excess cash

The company is becoming less efficient at using its assets to generate revenue

The company is able to pay its obligations

Low risk of bankruptcy within the coming 2 years

Earnings figures seem trustworthy, probably no earnings manipulation

The company is able to self-fund its growth and is growing its yearly free cash flows

The company is generating valueThere is enough cash being generated to pay of debt in a reasonable amount of time

The three valuation methods yield significantly different results, estimate unreliable


35/54


36/54

1,043Inputs

Price 520

EPS 40

Median historical P/E 21

Expected growth rate 19.58%Margin of Safety 25%

Conservative growth rate 14.69%

Growth decline rate 5%

Discount rate 9%

Calculations

Year EPS*Growth

1 46

2 53

3 60

4 68

5 77Value in 5 years 1,604

Present value 1,043

P/E valuation


37/54


38/54


39/54


40/54

1,557Inputs

Total cash (mil Rs) 40,546

Free cash flow (mil Rs) 45,077

Shares outstanding (mil) 892.45

Expected growth rate 19.58%Margin of Safety 25.00%


Growth decline rate 5.00%

Discount rate 9.00%

Valuation last FCF 12

Calculations

Year FCF * Growth rate NPV FCF

1 51,697 51,697

2 58,909 54,045

3 66,716 56,153

4 75,116 58,0035 84,100 59,579

6 93,657 60,870

7 103,767 61,873

8 114,408 62,585

9 125,554 63,011

10 137,175 63,159

Total NPV FCF 590,975.4

Year 10 FCF value 757,907.4 '+

Cash on Hand 40,546.0 '+

Company value: 1,389,428.8

DCF valuation


41/54


42/54


43/54


44/54

1,584

Inputs

Shareholders equity 123,549

Return on Equity (avg) 36.34%

Shares outstanding 892.45

Dividend Yield 2.30%Dividend payout ratio 29.64%

Margin of Safety 25.00%


Discount rate 9.00%

Calculations (per share)

Year Shareholders equity Dividend NPV dividends

1 165 14 14

2 197 17 16

3 234 20 17

4 279 24 19

5 333 29 206 397 34 22

7 473 41 24

8 563 49 27

9 671 58 29

10 800 69 32

Year 10 net income 291

Required value 3,230

NPV required value 1,365

NPV dividends 220 '+

Intrinsic value: 1,584

ROE valuation


45/54


46/54


47/54


48/54

Earnings Power

Year 2013 2012 2011 2010

Accrual profit 40 44 28 15Defensive profit 50 44 32 18

Enterprising profit 35.70% 47.17% 44.65% 38.79%

Debt Repayment Period 0.38 0.00 0.00 0.00

http://www.valuespreadsheet.com/value-investing-blog/earnings-manipulation-detect-value-traps-he

Financial health

Learn more about Earnings Power

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Quality of Profits

Accrual profit Defensive profit Enterprising profit

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

50.00%

0

Enterprising

profits
http://www.valuespreadsheet.com/value-investing-blog/earnings-manipulation-detect-value-traps-hewitt-heisermanhttp://www.valuespreadsheet.com/value-investing-blog/earnings-manipulation-detect-value-traps-hewitt-heiserman


49/54


50/54


51/54


52/54

Altman Z Score 5.28

Inputs

Working capital 29,628Total assets 207,000

Retained earnings 25,316

EBIT 48,999

Sales 170,910

Market value of equity 463,787

Total liabilities 83,451

Learn more about the Altman-Z score here:

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/a/altman.as


53/54


54/54

Documents

My Value Investing