National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Update

October 26, 2014

Dennis W. Staley

Executive Officer, NCEP

Outline

• Who We Are

• Were We Have Been

• What We Have Achieved

• Where We are Going: Drivers for Change

• NCEP’s Role in Impact-Based Decision Support Services

• FY15 Key Activities

• NCEP Labor/Management Success Stories

• Summary2

Who We Are: National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Aviation Weather Center Kansas City, MO

EnvironmentalModeling CenterCollege Park, MD

NCEP Central OperationsCollege Park, MD(Supercomputers inReston & Orlando)

Space WeatherPrediction Center

Boulder, CO

Climate Prediction CenterCollege Park, MD

National Hurricane CenterMiami, FL

Ocean Prediction CenterCollege Park, MD

Storm Prediction CenterNorman, OK

Weather Prediction CenterCollege Park, MD

MissionProvide reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts, and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy

426 FTE200 Contractors40+ Visiting Scientists6 NOAA Corps Officers$125M Budget

VisionNation’s trusted source, first alert, and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

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Who We Are: What NCEP Delivers

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space Weather

International Partnerships in Ensemble Forecasts

Data Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation

Super Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“Provision of Services from the Sun to the Sea”

Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

Climate Seasonal Forecasts El Nino – La Nina Forecast Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Extreme Events (Hurricanes,

Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather)

Aviation Forecasts and Warnings High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Where We Have Been

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What We Have AchievedTop Accomplishments 2009-2013

NCO•Transitioning to New Facility (NCWCP) with No Loss of Products •Transitioning to Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputer System With a New Operating System•Improving On-Time Delivery of Supercomputer Products: 99.99%

SWPC•Implementing First Operational Space Wx Prediction Model: WSA-ENLIL

OPC•Changing From Text Only Forecasts to Gridded and Text Forecasts for the Marine Offshore Forecasts

CPC•Developing a National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) Capability to Advance the Skill of NOAA’s Seasonal Predictions

EMC•Implementing New Models and Upgrades: CFSv2; Hybrid En-3DVAR; RTOFS; HWRF; RAP; HRRR; LDAS; Ensembles (GEFS, SREF, NAEFS) 6

What We Have AchievedTop Accomplishments 2009-2013

WPC•Developing Ensemble-Based Gridded Probabilistic Snow and Freezing Rain Forecasts--used by WFO Sterling (WRN Pilot Project) to Issue Experimental Winter Snowfall Probabilistic Products

AWC•Strengthening Partnership with FAA by Placing DSS Meteorologists at FAA National Command Center in Warrenton, Va •Establishing Robust and Active Aviation Weather Testbed

NHC•Leading in the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program (HFIP) and Joint Hurricane Testbed (JHT) Activities Resulting to Improvements in Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts

SPC•Establishing Routine Collaboration with National and Regional FEMA; FEMA Liaison at SPC in 2014•Partnership Exercised Successfully in Historic 2011 Tornado Season 7

Track forecast improvements

• Significant improvements since HFIP Program established (2009)

• HFIP 5-Year Goal Achieved

NHC Official Forecast PerformanceNHC Official Forecast PerformanceAtlantic BasinAtlantic Basin

Intensity forecast improvements

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Where We are Going:Drivers for Change

• New NCEP Director

• NWS Strategic Plan Focused on Building a “Weather-Ready Nation” and “Improved Decision Support Services”

• New NWS HQ Reorganization and Budget Restructuring

• Sandy Supplemental is Game Changer in All Aspects of the End-to-End Forecast Process (i.e. Observations, Modeling, Computing, Forecast Services, etc)

• External Reviews

UCAR Advisory Committee for NCEP 2013/2014 Report Weather Services for the Nation: Becoming Second to None Forecast for the Future: Assuring the Capacity of the NWS (NAPA Report,

2013)

• New NCEP Strategic Plan

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NCEP Alignment with DOC/NOAA/NWS Priorities

DOC Strategic Plan NOAA Shared Priorities NWS Strategic Goals

#3 – Environment3.2 Improve preparedness, response, and recovery from weather and water events by building a Weather-Ready Nation #4 -- Data4.3 Collaborate with the business community to provide more timely, accurate, and relevant data products and services for customers

1) Improve Weather Impact-Based Decision Support Services2) Improve Water Forecasting Services3) Enhance Climate Services and adapt to climate-related risks4) Improve sector-relevant information in support of economic productivity5) Enable environmental forecast services supporting healthy communities and ecosystems6) Sustain a highly skilled, professional workforce

#2 - Evolve the NWSa. Build a Weather-Ready Nation by holding ourselves accountable for the accuracy of our forecasts and ensuring people know how to react to that information b. Create a National Weather Service based on a fully integrated field structure that provides nationally consistent products and services, manages innovation, and accelerates research to operations across NOAA

Weather-Ready Nation Embraced by NAPA: “We Can’t do it Alone”

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Sandy Supplemental

• Provided $466M to NOAA to Address Sandy Mitigation ($87M to NWS)

• Key Areas:– Observations

– Computing Capacity

– Model Upgrades

– Dissemination: Ground Readiness

– Storm Surge Enhancements

– Training; Including Social Science

– JPSS Gap Mitigation

– Facilities Repairs

✓ A “Game Changer” for Enhancing the Entire Forecast Process

✓ Offers Opportunity to Accelerate Major Advancements to the Operational Computer and Model Infrastructure

✓ Monthly Tracking and Reporting Required

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StrategicStrategic

Develop a Framework to Guide Change, and begin a deliberate Pace of Change

Embrace “Weather-Ready Nation” and six Strategic goals – but emphasize we can’t do it alone

Energize private sector engagement/enhance secondary value chain

Centralized Change Management/IT Development

TacticalTactical

Improve Service Consistency Across the NWS - IDSS

Enhanced capacity for testing and demonstration – (O2R/R2O) - Training

Improve innovation management/Find efficiencies in infrastructure

Setting the Stage for Change: 2012 NAS Reports and

2013 NAPA Report

Energized Energized Stakeholder Stakeholder

Engagement/Engagement/External adviceExternal advice

Restructured/Restructured/transparent budget transparent budget

follows function follows function (NWSHQ a good place to (NWSHQ a good place to

realign first)realign first)

Solidify NWSEO Solidify NWSEO relationshiprelationship

“Open Weather and Climate” support for Commercial and Research Sectors

12NCEP is Key Player in Execution 12

UCAR Advisory Committee for NCEP: Major Messages

• Revise/Update NCEP Strategic Plan

• Take advantage of opportunities associated with move to the NCWCP; VSP Program

• Workforce Management: Hire the Best and Brightest

• “Second to None” Charge: Apply to NCEP Products, Services and Modeling

• Use Science- Based “Trade- Space” Priority Setting for Production Suite Resources – Shrink # of Models

• Adopt a Unified Coupled Modeling Framework

• Strengthen Interactions with Research Community13

New NCEP Strategic Plan: Timeline

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The Director’s DRAFT Vision for NCEP

NCEP is the trusted sourceof weather, water, climate and space weather guidance, forecasts, warnings and analyses

used to protect life and property, stimulate economic growth and improve the quality of every day life.

NCEP employees are a valued national asset,using science, innovation, and collaborationto create and deliver accurate environmental

products and services-----on time, every time, all the time spanning the Sun to the Sea….

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• A major player in building and sustaining a Weather Ready Nation and providing Impact-Based Decision Support Services

• Strategically expand science/service areas based on user requirements:

• 3-4 weeks forecasts (closing the gap between weather and climate)

• Extending lead time for high impact events

• Incorporate a full earth system science approach

• Strategically transition research into operations (R2O/O2R)

• Deliver (with partners) the WRN integrated field structure

• Deliver world class operational numerical guidance required to support the WRN

• Deliver timely, reliable, consistent and accurate products/services

• Deliver high capacity IT infrastructure support, high performance computing and technical management services

Strategic Areas for NCEP in the Next 5 Years

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NCEP’s Role in Impact-Based

Decision Support Services

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IDSS Support at NCEP

Internal NOAANational Federal Partners

National MediaInternational

Sector Specific Support

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Internal NOAA-NWS-NCEP

NHC

SPC

WPC

AWC

ROCs

NOC

Serve key role to raise local situational awareness

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FY15 Milestone: Issue marine forecasts for the Antarctic to support NOAA’s National Marine Fisheries Service in Antarctica.

Unique Internal NOAA

Ecological Modeling

FEMA / DHS Briefings

Monthly or Regular Basis and Special Partner Briefings in Advance of Major Events

Matthew Green

Daniel Porter

Somer Erickson

FEMA Liasons

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Special Sector Support(National Aviation Met.)

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• Ensuring Weather Situational Awareness

• Collaborating with CWSU/WFO/AWC

• Adding Insight to Static NWS Products (e.g., Uncertainty)

• Scheduled and On-Demand (Event-Driven) Briefings

• Impact-Based Decision Support Services

National Media

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International

NCEP Training Desks

Specialized Support

Haiti Earthquake

Japanese Tsunami

South America / Tropical Africa / MonsoonNCEP executes over half of NWS International travelScientific and Service EngagementSatellite CoordinationGlobal Model Coordination

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DSS Challenge: How to Better Integrate NWS Field

Structure

• Need common culture of collaboration– NCEP needs to earn WFO trust/respect– ‘MY’ forecast needs to becomes ‘OUR’ forecast

• Need common analysis and verification• Need common tools (AWIPS II, Sit Aware tool)• Need clear roles and responsibilities

• NCEP and WFOs have a responsibility to collaborate

• NCEP forecasts are improved by WFO interaction• WFO’s forecasts are improved by NCEP interaction• End result is a more consistent, accurate, and

trusted NWS forecast and DSS message

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*

Opportunities(ROCs)

NHCSPCWPCAWCCPCOPC

SWPC

ROCs

NOC

ROCs could help facilitate NCEP-WFO collaboration on a consistent DSS message-Monitor and anticipate issues-Proactively set up collaboration calls

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Opportunities (Probabilistic DSS)

NWS worked with FAA and Industry to define impact thresholds

Event SlightProb >40%

ModtProb >40%

HighProb > 40%

3-h Snow > 0.2” > 0.75” > 1.5”

24-h Snow > 1” > 2” >6”

3-h Fz Rain > 0.01” > 0.05”

Visibility < 3 mi < 1 mi < ½ mi

Criteria for DCA

Chance ofHeavy Snow

45%

RiskTolerance40%

ActionCancel Flights

Risk of Risk Take Event Tolerance Action

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Official NWS Forecast

Minimum(1”)

Most Likely(5”)

Maximum(13”)

Expect at least this muchPotential for this much

Provide a reasonable best / worst-case scenario

Local Emergency Manager: “This is one of the most important new initiatives from NWS we have seen for Emergency Managers in years.”

DC

DC

DC

Opportunities (Probabilistic DSS)

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Opportunities (Integrating Social Science)

Convective OutlookStorm Surge

Hazards Simplification 29

Rapid Refresh and HRRRNOAA hourly updated models

*

13km Rapid Refresh (RAP)

(mesoscale)

V2 in ops: 2/25/14

3km HRRR (storm-scale)

High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Scheduled NCEPImplementation Sept 2014

RAP

HRRR

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HRRR Benefits

• Increased resolution (3km) of basic fields like temperatures, winds, visibility, etc to resolve mesoscale features

• Explicitly allows convection, allowing for storm-scale structure; shows skill at predicting storms with strong rotation, bow echoes, etc.

• Provides hourly updates at high resolution

• Out to 15 hours

• Will be a key part of future NCEP hi-res ensemble

*31

High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models

20 km RUC 2002(3x resolution)

13 km RUC/RAP 2005(4.6x resolution)

3 km HRRR 2014(20x resolution)

40 km RUC 1998(1.5x resolution)

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High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models

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*

High Impact Prediction Needs: Higher Resolution Models

Hurricane Arthur

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13-km 6hr forecast HRRR 6hr forecast

07 June 2012 5 PM EDTReality

Observations UsedHigh Impact Prediction Needs:Higher Resolution Models

3-km HRRR Explicit

Convection 6 hr forecast

Aircraft mustNavigate AroundThunderstorms

13-km RAP Parameterized

Convection 6 hr forecast

No Storm Structure

No Estimate of Permeability

Accurate Storm Structure

Accurate Estimate of Permeability 35

June 16 “Twin Tornado” Supercell in northeast Nebraska

*36

*

14z + 7hr 15z + 6hr

16z + 5hr 17z + 4hr

Clear trendin hourlycycle forenhancedrisk innortheast NE

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FY15 Key Activities

• Upgrade WCOSS – 3X Compute Capacity• Award New WCOSS Contract• Develop Experimental Weeks 3-4 Temperature and

Precipitation Outlook • Develop Experimental Week-2 Heat Watch Outlook

Product • Operationalize National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)

System• Expand SPC Watch Coverage from 20nm Offshore to

60nm Offshore• Enhance SPC Convective Outlooks for Days 1,2,3 – Add

Two New Risk Categories

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NEW

OLD

• Added 2 new risk categories:- "Marginal"- "Enhanced“

• Implemented October 22

SPC Day 1, Day 2 and Day 3 Convective Outlooks

FY15 Key Activities

• Develop Experimental Day 4-7 Winter Outlook Product• Develop Experimental 72-h Winter Weather Watch

Recommender on an Internal Web Site for WFO Evaluation/Feedback

• Expand Winter Weather Desk to 24X7 Coverage to increase collaboration and consistency with field offices

• Implement Model Upgrades: GFS, GDAS, GEFS, HWRF• Develop Seasonal Severe Wx Outlook• Develop Whole Atmospheric Model for Space Wx• Implement Experiment Tropical Storm Surge

Watch/Warning Product

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FY15 Key Activities

• Implement Experimental Aviation Probabilistic Convection Guidance Aimed to Improve Consistency

• Implement Experimental Aviation Probabilistic Guidance for Cloud and Visibility

• Begin Issuing Marine Forecasts for the Antarctic to Support NOAA's National Marine Fisheries Service in Antarctica

• Finalize and Implement New NCEP Strategic Plan• Conduct Center Reviews through the UCAR External

Review Team

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NCEP Labor Management Success Stories

• Ocean Synergy Team: Established in 2003– To improve ocean forecasts through collaboration and

increased operational effectiveness of the three ocean forecast offices (OPC, NHC, HFO)

– Improve product quality and consistency across boundaries– Coordinate on future improvements– Increased efficiency for technical developments– Discussion Underway to Expand to AK

• Timeliness Team: Improved Center Timeliness from Mid 70% in Early 2000’s to 98% Today

• Joint Labor/Management Training

• NCEP Strategic Plan42

Summary

• NCEP is aligned with DOC, NOAA and NWS Strategic Planning Goals

• NCEP is a Critical Component to NWS Success & Underutilized Resource

• NCEP is Committed to Maintaining a Strong Labor Management Relationship

• NCEP Key Strategic Areas Over Next Five Years

– Leader in integrated field structure and DSS– World class modeling center– World leader in high performance computing– Expand science/service areas (3-4 weeks forecasts; full ESS

approach; National IDSS)43

Thank You

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Appendix

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Summary of Employee Input

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Sandy Supplemental Projects

• Operational Supercomputing

• Global & Ensemble Model Upgrades

• Global 4-D Hybrid Data Assimilation

• Tropical Cyclone Relocation in NAM

• Observing System Experiments

• HPC Software Management and Integration (Operational Model Implementation Support)

• Blends of Global Models

• GOES Data Assimilation and Product Development

• Cloud-Based Radiance Data Assimilation

• Atmospheric Motion Vectors

• Near-shore Wave Prediction System

• SLOSH & Gridded Winds

• Storm Surge Guidance

• Storm Surge Training

• Social Science & Science Infusion Training

• Decision Support Services Training

• Facilities – WFO Hardening

• Facilities – WFO Repair

• Facilities – NOAA Weather Radio Facilities

• Rain Gage O&M

• Automated Surface Observations

• Radiosondes (Upper Air)

• Caribbean Radar Observations

• Dual Pol NEXRAD Enhancements

• Multi-Radar, Multi-Sensor Systems (R2O)

• Aircraft Observations

• Buoys

• NWS Data Availability

• NOAA Weather Wire Service & NOAA Weather Radio

• Meteorological Assimilation Data Ingest System (MADIS)

• Ground Readiness Project

• Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (R2O) 47

SCIENTIFIC CHALLENGE

DAYS WEEKS MONTHS YEARS DECADES

Hurricane Track

Forecasts (out to 5 days)

Severe Weather Outlook

(out to 8 days)

Public GriddedForecasts

(out to 7 days)

Temp/PrecipOutlooks

(6 -10, 8 -14 days)

Short Range Weather Prediction

Mid-RangeForecastingWeek 3-4

Temperature Outlooks (1 & 3 Months)

Seasonal DroughtOutlook

(1 Month & Seasonal)

Long Range Climate Prediction

Precipitation Outlooks (1 & 3 Months)

National Climate Assessment (Years and Decades)

?

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CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER(Current and Experimental Products)

Precipitation Probability(8-14 Day Outlook)

2015 EXPERIMENTAL PRODUCT

POTENTIAL FUTURE PRODUCTS

Average Precipitation (3-4 Weeks Outlook)

High Risk of Extreme PrecipitationProbability of AboveProbability of Below

CURRENTPRODUCT

Probability of AboveProbability of Below

Extreme PrecipitationPotential

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