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National Climate Change and Environment Fund (FONERWA) Full Project Document (PD) COVER SHEET (Attach this sheet to the front of your submission. Please do not exceed one A4 side of paper.)

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Project Title Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s Weather and Climate Services to Support Development

Project Summary (In 75 words or less please summarise what your project intends to achieve and how)

The project will improve the range of weather and climate information available to inform decision making at all levels in Rwanda, and promote its understanding and application. It will achieve this by involving users in the development of new services, making investments in improved observations, forecasting and analysis, and introducing new communications channels. Aspects of delivery will be decentralised to develop closer links with users at district, sub-district and community levels.

Anticipated Start Date (DD/MM/YYYY)

01/01/2015

Project Duration (in months)

36

Funding Requested (RWF)

RWF 1,645,740,200 (one billion, six hundred and forty five million, Seven hundred and forty thousand, two hundred)

Name of Lead Organisation

Meteo Rwanda

Type of Organisation, which best describes the Lead Organisation (please select only one box)

Government Institution

Non-Governmental Organisation (NGO)

Private Sector Enterprise

Academic Institution

Other (please specify)

Partner Institutions Met Office (the UK national meteorological service), MIDIMAR and RNRA.

Full Office Address

Rwanda Meteorology Agency, KN96 St, PO Box 898, Kigali, Rwanda

Website Address (if applicable)

http://www.meteorwanda.gov.rw

Contact Person (the person who will have ultimate responsibility and be accountable for delivering this project)

Name: Mr Didace Musoni Position: Division Manager at Rwanda Meteorological Agency Email: MDIDACE@HOTMAIL.COM Tel: 0782536496 / 0722225323

For Internal Purposes Only: To be Completed by the Fund Manager

Date Received: _________________ PD Code: __________________

Date Comments Sent: ____________

PPD Code:___________________ Feasibility Study? (Y/N) ______________ Thematic Financing Window: _____________________________________ FONERWA Entry Point: ___________________________________________

Technical Appraisal Score: ______ Rank: _____

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Figure 1- Project management arrangement ....................................................................................... 9 3

Figure 2- Project implementation.................................................................................................... 117 4

Figure 1: Project implementation .................................................................................................... 117 5

Figure 3 -The project team .............................................................................................................. 118 6

Figure 4 - Contractual arrangements ............................................................................................... 122 7

Figure 5- Flow of funds ................................................................................................................... 123 8

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Table of Contents 48

Full Project Document (PD) ............................................................................................................. 6 49

SECTION 1: INFORMATION ABOUT THE APPLICANT ........................................................................ 6 50

Meteo Rwanda Staff on the project .......................................................................................... 7 51

Met Office Staff ...................................................................................................................... 7 52

SECTION 2: INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROJECT ........................................................................... 9 53

Expected impacts on employment and reduction in poverty levels in Rwanda ............................ 12 54

Expected impact on knowledge and technological transfer ....................................................... 13 55

Project Output 1 ................................................................................................................... 14 56

Project Output 2 ................................................................................................................... 16 57

Project Output 3 ................................................................................................................... 22 58

Project Output 4 ................................................................................................................... 25 59

Gender and Family ................................................................................................................ 30 60

Youth and Education ............................................................................................................. 30 61

Disability and social inclusion ................................................................................................. 30 62

Project Risk management ...................................................................................................... 36 63

SECTION 3: PROJECT BUDGET AND VALUE FOR MONEY ................................................................... 38 64

The Value for Money (Economy)............................................................................................. 39 65

Value for Money (Efficiency): ................................................................................................. 40 66

Value for Money (Effectiveness .............................................................................................. 42 67

Annex B: Stakeholder Workshop Minutes ....................................................................................... 45 68

ANNEX C: PROJECT LOGFRAME ...................................................................................................... 47 69

Annex D-Monitoring and Evaluation ............................................................................................... 54 70

ANNEX E: BUDGET FOR PROJECT SUPPORTED BY FONERWA ............................................................ 58 71

Summary of the budget ........................................................................................................ 112 72

ANNEX I: PRINCIPLES OF ENGAGEMENT ..................................................................................... 117 73

1.1 General Principles .......................................................................................................... 117 74

1.3 Project Governance ....................................................................................................... 118 75

1.4 Procurement and Contracting Arrangements .............................................................. 119 76

1.4 Sourcing and Selection of Technical Assistance ........................................................... 120 77

1.5 Financial Management and Flow of Funds ................................................................... 120 78

Annex J-Terms of references for Project Manager and Technical Assistance coordinator ............ 124 79

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Full Project Document (PD) 101

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National Climate Change and Environment Fund (FONERWA) (Please provide a complete answer to each question, even if the answer is duplicated elsewhere. This PD should not exceed 35 sides of A4 size paper.)

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SECTION 1: INFORMATION ABOUT THE APPLICANT Q 1.1 What is the Lead organisation's total number of full-time employees? Meteo Rwanda currently employs 53 full time personnel. This is expected to rise to 63 by the end of FY14/15 and to 78 and 99 in subsequent financial years. Q 1.2 What is your organisation's experience of managing similar projects or activities (please explain why you

think your organisation and partners are capable of managing the project)? Meteo Rwanda Established in 1963, Meteo Rwanda is the National Meteorological Service of the Republic of Rwanda. Its mission is to provide accurate, reliable, timely weather and climate information and products for the general welfare and to accelerate development of the Republic of Rwanda. As stated in the EDPRS II, it’s priorities include (a) providing multi-hazard warnings and advice for disaster risk reduction and management (b) providing routine weather forecasts and information services for use in planning and (c) providing long-term climate risks and impacts data and analyses to inform decision making. Meteo Rwanda is capable of managing this project due to its national mandate, mission, international obligations and partnerships with experienced institutions. Examples of specific activities include: Successfully accessing the Government of Rwanda’s (GoR) development budget and donor funds to finance and

manage its projects. These include expanding and modernising the monitoring stations throughout the country and improving the management of climate observations in order to generate information on related impacts;

Working with sectoral ministries such as the Ministry Agriculture (MINAGRI), Natural Disasters and Refuge affairs (MIDIMAR) among others to evolve tailored services for application to strengthen their respective services;

Development and delivery of general and specific forecasting services for diverse applications;

Maintenance of successful partnerships with a range of local, regional and international institutions such as research institutions to enhance information exchange; advance the knowledge and skills in weather and climate information, analysis and application.

Meteo Rwanda and REMA successfully implemented a recent EWS project to modernise observing and forecasting processes and improve service delivery of early warning products. Under a contract with REMA, the Met Office provided specific expertise in training of weather forecasters and climate modellers on use of PRECIS, a tool for climate change analysis and prediction. There is on-site practice to apply EWS products to four districts in the west of the country will provide a basis for replication elsewhere.

It is proposed for this project the Meteo Rwanda will work in partnership with the Met Office, who will provide the Technical Assistance as required and agreed with Meteo Rwanda. Where additional inputs are required, these will be tendered though normal government process as required by

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Rwandan law.

Meteo Rwanda will ensure the required working relationships with other relevant Ministries (particularly MIDIMAR, REMA, MINALOC, MINAGRI and RNRA) to deliver the project are in place. Relationships with other relevant organisations, such as the University of Rwanda, agricultural institutes, and others will be developed as the project moves forward. Q 1.3 List the name, position, and email of key personnel involved in the project, such as the project executive,

project manager, and core technical staff. (Provide a CV for each of the key personnel as an attachment to this PD)

The project will be implemented and managed by Meteo Rwanda. A full time dedicated Project Manager, based in Meteo Rwanda, with responsibility for delivery and coordination of the project has been identified. Implementation of the project activites will be undertaken by Meteo Rwanda staff. Met Office will provide the Technical Assistance as required and agreed with Meteo Rwanda.

Meteo Rwanda Staff on the project Key personnel from Meteo Rwanda who will be involved in the project have been identified as follows: Project Manager - Didace Musoni Technical Lead (observations, systems, data and application) - Marcellin Habimana Technical Lead (stakeholder management and communications) – tbc Technical Lead (forecasting, product development and delivery/dissemination) – Anthony Twahirwa Technical Lead (monitoring, evaluation, value for money and accounting) – tbc Other staff will be assist in project delivery as required may include but will not be limited to: Mugunga Mbati, (forecaster applications) Prosper Ayabagabo (forecaster applications) J.M.V. Niyitegeka (agro meteorology applications) Fidel Kamanzi (engineer radar technology applications) Alex Nziyimana (engineer) Twahirwa Kabanguka Faustin (procurement processing officer) Malikidogo Jean Pierre (legal advisor) Kalisa Olivier (IT) Mukaremera Pascasie Human resource (supervision) Munyarugerero J. (supply chain manager)

Met Office Staff

Technical Coordinator (Rwanda based) – Becky Miles Other core staff who may be involved in the provision of short term Technical Advice include but will not be

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limited to: Technical advisor (capacity building) – Steve Palmer Technical Adviser (forecasting profession) – Patrick Rule Technical Adviser (weather impacts) – Jenny Rourke Technical Adviser (stakeholder engagement) – John Hammond Technical Adviser (monthly/seasonal predictions) – Richard Graham Technical Adviser (African seasonal weather) – Tammy Janes Technical Adviser (management and service design) – John Ward External Experts Other external experts who may be involved in the provision of Technical Advice include but will not be limited to: Economist (nef Consulting) – Olivier Vardakoulias Organisational Development Practitioner (nef Consulting) – Michael Weatherhead Development/Participation Expert (independent consultant) – Emma Visman Communications Expert (independent consultant) – Robert Powell The Project Manager, assisted by the Project Team (including the Meteo Rwanda leads for project components) will identify areas in the project in which Technical Assistance is required. Where possible, this will be sourced nationally or regionally before international expertise is sought. This approach has the benefits of being cost effective, enhancing synergies and collaboration between national institutions and sectoral ministries and avoiding duplication of efforts to achieve the same outcomes. . The capacity acquired shall be tested, practiced and sustained through adaption of good guidance practices enabled from coaching, mentoring, teaching and learning by doing by many Meteo Rwanda core professionals involved in the project execution. Knowledge and skills are needed for transformational change in the delivery of services and products; this will be achieved through full engagement of climate professionals and the stakeholders. The working arrangements between Meteo Rwanda and the Met Office have been set out in a ‘Principles of Engagement‘document which will form the basis of the contractual relationship between the two parties. Terms of Reference for the Project Manager and Technical Coordinator have been prepared and agreed. The project management arrangements are shown in Figure 1 below.

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Figure 1- Project management arrangement

Q 1.4 Lead Organisational Finances. Provide a copy of these from the most recent audited annual accounts

(income and expenditure statement & balance sheet in RWF, as well as the main sources of funding) as an attachment to this PD.

Meteo Rwanda is a public institution whose financial management is based on the requirements of the public institutions of the GoR. The administrative structure of Meteo Rwanda was approved by Cabinet on 28th April 2014. Financial administration personnel will be recruited to manage the finances of the Institution and hence of the project. Details of recent accounts of Meteo Rwanda are included in Annex C.

SECTION 2: INFORMATION ABOUT THE PROJECT Q 2.1 Why is the project needed (clearly state the problem this project will address and the evidence base for its

justification. Where possible, refer to international, national and/or sectoral strategies.) ? The project is needed at this time for the following reasons:

Many sectors of Rwanda’s economy are highly sensitive to weather and climate conditions. Impacts are most acutely felt amongst the poor. Better weather and climate information, targeted to the needs of users has considerable potential to reduce losses and contribute to socio-economic growth and reducing vulnerability;

For example, many small-scale farmers depend for their income on rain-fed agriculture and are facing increasingly uncertain yields following changes in weather patterns. Weather and climate information can contribute to reducing this vulnerability by providing, for example, better seasonal forecasts (which have

Project Manager

Technical Lead Improvement observations, systems, data and

application

Technical Lead Stakeholder Management and Communications

Technical Lead Forecasting, product development and

delivery/ dissemination

Technical Lead Monitoring, evaluation, value for money and

accounting

Technical Coordinator

(Met Office)

Technical support

(Met Office and consultants)

Project Support

(secretarial support, transportation etc.)

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been shown to increase yields), or supporting climate risk management tools such as weather index insurance (which needs to be based on reliable meteorological data). The Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI) has introduced such a scheme for small farmers as a tool for transferring risks associated with weather and climate change to financial markets;

As the report of 2009 of the Institute for Policy Analysis and Research showed, the economy of Rwanda is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, heavily dependent on the rain-fed agricultural sector which employs around 90% of the population, provides 91% of the food consumed in the country, contributes 36% of GDP and accounts for 70% of revenue from exports. This therefore implies that a weather/climate related shock to the agricultural sector will resonate in other sectors of the economy;

There is a need for accurate weather and climate information to support the making of informed decisions at all levels (in the public and private sector) - from developing national plans and policies through to famers making informed decisions on time of planting and the mix of crops to grow. Each user has different requirements meaning that information to support national development needs to be provided at a range of timescales from now-casting (very short-term), to next season, to 10 or 100 years in the future. The project will aim to mainstream weather and climate information into planning and development processes;

There is a strong policy and strategic context. The GoR identifies delivering services at community level as a strategic requirement in the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy 2 (EDPRS 2). Meteo Rwanda’s strategic plan, which the project will help deliver, supports this government strategy;

It builds on existing initiatives. A recently completed Early Warning System (EWS) project (on which Meteo Rwanda and the Met Office collaborated) has demonstrated that there is a demand for a wider range of weather and climate services. This, and other initiatives to build capacity in Meteo Rwanda, has formed a good basis for scaling up services which could be lost if not capitalised on;

There are new possibilities for communication. Government and private sector investment, and new technologies in communication provide significant opportunities to provide information products to the community. This can be through mass communication to individuals, or through district administrations and via other networks. There is increasing understanding of the most effective approaches for communicating weather and climate services, and of promoting their understanding and use, and

There is increasing research evidence showing strong economic benefits (through reduced losses and by contributing to socio-economic growth) for investment in weather and climate services.

Q 2.2 What change is this project intended to achieve (state specific objectives, expected results/impact and long-

term legacy. To address the core environment and climate change objectives of the project, it would be helpful to refer to national and sectoral climate change and environment objectives. Provide measurable indicators, within a log-frame matrix. In addition, make a note of the expected impacts on employment and poverty reduction, as well knowledge and technological transfer.)?

The project is intended to achieve a transformational change in the delivery, understanding and use of weather and climate information in decision making (at national, district sub-district and household level). Ultimately, this will contribute to wealth creation and poverty reduction in Rwanda (FONERWA Impact Statement) and building resilience to climate change impacts (FONERWA Output Indicator 2.4). It will also support the development of renewable energy and other environmentally sustainable low carbon and climate resilient technologies in Rwanda. The long-term legacy of the project will be twofold. Firstly, it will put in place a strong foundation to enable

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Rwanda as a nation, and her citizens to have better weather and climate information to inform their approaches to reduce poverty, support economic growth and adapt to climate change. Secondly, it will enable Meteo Rwanda corporately and through its staff members to effectively produce and communicate relevant weather and climate information through a re-skilling of staff in Meteo Rwanda offices across the country. The proposed project outcome statement is ‘An improved, demand led weather and climate information system informs decisions of policy makers, planners and the public’. This will be measured by four outcome indicators:

1. Number of households using weather and climate information in decision making related to livelihood activities (at least 1.0 million households by the end of the project). [This will be achieved in a number of ways including: the use of training workshops at sub-district levels; environmental clubs in schools and other institutions of learning; through sector focal points representative of the ministries at local level of government; and decentralisation of some activities to sustain the programme at grass roots level].

2. Number of government departments and other organisations reporting increased and regular use of Meteo Rwanda products and services in decision making (at least 150 by the end of the project).

3. Numbers of policies, plans and programmes at national and district and sub-district decision making levels with an increased uptake and use of weather and climate information. These could include: (a) At national level:

Actions to improve strengthen, and to develop specific programmes of (i) agriculture to realise food security (ii) lands, forestry, environment and natural resource management (iii) protection of vulnerable and their property from high impact weather related disasters (iv) education, research and technology (v) infrastructure protection and development (vi) gender and youth development and (vii) regional cooperation especially in the programme of weather data and information sharing, knowledge transfer.

(b) At District, Sub-district levels:

Providing weather and climate data and information to apply to (i) increase agriculture production and revenue (ii) water and soil management (iii) environmental protection policy especially the programme in disaster risk reduction to support disaster awareness, preparedness, prevention, risk mapping and rescue capacity (over the land and lakes) (iv) infrastructure protection and development especially in energy and transport sectors (v) social well-being in areas of trade and industry, tourism and public education (vi) programme of decentralisation where every district and sub-district would have a representative weather station for use in planning (vii) youth programme especially to encourage and support schools and clubs to have demonstration weather stations (weather kits) for pupils (viii) focus on rural women cooperatives in the timely use of weather and climate advisories since they are the most vulnerable to high impact weather and climate events.

4. Percentage of forecasts meeting specified levels of timeliness, accuracy and reliability. More specifically the main objectives of the project are as follows: Objective 1: To create and enhance engagement between Meteo Rwanda (the producer of climate information) and key stakeholders (users and funders of climate information) with the aim of identifying the quality of services and products to deliver to different users at national, district and sub-district levels. Objective 2: To provide scientific knowledge and skills required of Meteo Rwanda staff, which must enable

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them to design and develop new and improved weather and climate services and products that meet the user’s expectations. Objective 3: To increase access to weather and climate information to at least 1 million households through a range of communication channels. Objective 4: To enhance awareness of weather and climate issues and to promote integration into plans, policies and budgets through implementation of a programme of research including into the socio - economic value of improved weather and climate services to support key sector strategies. The effective use of weather and climate information contributes greatly to GDP of Rwanda by reducing economic losses due to hydro-meteorological causes and increasing return on investment on economic activities sensitive to weather and climate events as a result of improved understanding of prevailing and forecast conditions.

Expected impacts on employment and reduction in poverty levels in Rwanda The project promotes employment by contributing to economic wealth of sectors such as agriculture, commerce, infrastructure, energy among others. It will provide the knowledge of climate, of climate variability, of climate change, and of their relationships with all components of the development of Rwanda as envisaged in the delivery of Vision 2020. In the immediate term, it will contribute to reducing susceptibility to climate variability and change; promoting stability in the economy through developing understanding of climate variability and the use of information thereof. In the medium term, the project will enhance the creation of a knowledge-based economy through building capacity in climate and related sciences, and then generating the knowledge base application to decision making at all levels. In the long term the project will ensure growth and development of the economy and society is resilient to the long-term impacts of climate change. Ultimately the project contribution to economic wealth through these three timescales improves the status of employment in Rwanda especially among the youth and women and in turn reduces poverty levels. There is much potential for weather and climate services leading to improved economic performance. Traditionally much of the emphasis has been on small-scale agriculture, but other businesses can be targeted, such as post-harvest losses in agricultural storage and marketing, agri-business in the exporting sectors (tea, coffee), transport and road safety, lake safety and operations, mining and waste management, power transmission and urban businesses. EDPRS2 emphasises the need for more employment in non-traditional industries, and relevant weather and climate services can enhance productivity and hence employment.

For example, a specific economic activity that is dependent on weather and climate for its survival and development is sugar cane (in 2009,Kabuye sugar works was a source of income to more than 10,500 workers). In order for the industry to sustain such level of employment, sugar cane crop husbandry requires that management utilizes meteorological information in planning of production activities and systematically applies this information through all levels of growth of the crop. Many on-farm workers are employed during the dry season to prepare land for planting because heavy rainfall may delay the timing and completion of land preparation. During planting and growth of the cane, timing of agricultural practices and techniques must ensure that the cane traps maximum radiation for energy and rainfall needed during growth and maturity (yield and quality). Only through the ability to take decisions based on advance knowledge of the state of weather and climate, will the unwarranted costs be minimized and production of cane sugar be increased and the business sustained.

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The company pays about 30 million of Rwandan Francs (RWF) per month to the plantation workers, RWF225 million to private cane transporters, and about RWF326 million paid annually to out-growers and tax revenue to the government. This example serves to emphasise the fact that the investment into climate sensitive projects is beneficial to private investors, to the government because it generates revenue for the state and employment to citizens and finally provides income and hence reduces poverty levels.

Expected impact on knowledge and technological transfer

Meteo Rwanda is in close partnership with national, regional and international institutions and organisations. Within the country, the broad impact of the project will be to enhance collaboration in terms of knowledge sharing and technology transfer. There are many weather and climate related challenges which induce common problems that require a multidisciplinary approach to providing a durable solution. For example, the project will address disaster risk reduction activities with MIDMAR, MINALOC, POLICE, DEFENCE FORCES and Red Cross as principal partners in this area. The project addresses the problem of acquisition of hydro-meteorological data, rescue and its management. In this context, there is a synergy required between Meteo Rwanda, Rwanda Natural Resources and the Geographical Information Centre at the University of Rwanda to enhance knowledge and information exchanges to support of individuals as well as collective operations geared towards improving the quality of life for all Rwandans. Local and international knowledge exchange is realised through initiatives necessary to make appropriate interpretations of climate related advisories especially for and by partner Institutions to manage impacts associated with extreme weather events. At the moment the knowledge of forecasting of severe weather events such as mesoscale systems of thunderstorms, gale winds, hailstorms, lightning, and flash floods is still a challenge to Meteo Rwanda. Underpinning knowledge around which areas of the country will be most affected by high impact weather and climate events, who is most vulnerable and what trigger there are for specific hydro-meteorological events becoming disasters is critically lacking in local partnering institutions. Within government there is a problem of converting existing weather forecasts, climate variability, predictions and future climate growth information into policy decisions pertinent to food security, health and economic and social development. In this context, the project supports Objectives 1, 2, and 4 through mentoring, training and demonstrating best practices from elsewhere. This will build on other collaborative initiatives - for instance Met-Office regularly offering technical and scientific expertise to Meteo Rwanda and is a very strong partner in this project. Africa Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development (AMESD) is another initiative through which satellite technology is harnessed to provide further weather and climate information in real-time. The project intends to improve the system of communication through satellite technology, telephone technology and internet among other modern means of communication. It is through such platform that the project hopes to reach out to the one million target set out in Objective 3. Q 2.3 How will the project objectives be achieved (include a detailed Work Plan as an appendix highlighting key

deliverables and activities and responsibilities. Clearly describe the approach and methodology to be followed and the sequence of activities planned.)?

The project outcome is ‘An improved, demand led weather and climate information system informs decisions of policy makers, planners and the public’. To achieve this outcome the project has been developed around four complementary outputs which focus on the improved production and communication of relevant weather and climate information, and its communication, uptake and utilisation by policy makers, planners and the public. The project is anticipated to

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last 3 years (including a 6 month Inception Stage at the start and a 6 month Completion Phase at the end). The approach, methodology, key activities and deliverables for each of the outputs are set out below.

Project Output 1 Processes and techniques for the identification of demand led weather and climate information, developed and being implemented. Approach In order to achieve a substantial increase in the uptake, understanding and application of weather and climate services produced by Meteo Rwanda, it is essential to promote effective engagement of a range of stakeholders at all levels (e.g. national, district, sub-district, local communities, etc.). Identifying the needs of various stakeholders in terms of both the type of information required and preferred communication channels will be a key step towards the successful delivery of subsequent project outputs. Stakeholder groups and target audiences will be identified based on further analysis during the Inception Stage but are likely to include: Farmers in rural areas; Businesses which are weather and climate sensitive (e.g. transporters and traders in agricultural produce and inputs); Policy makers and planners; Government ministries and agencies (MIDIMAR, REMA, MINALOC, MINAGRI, RNRA); District administrations; Emergency and humanitarian responders (e.g. Rwanda Red Cross, fire and rescue services, UN agencies, international NGOs, etc.); and Community and civil society organisations. The focus of Output 1 will be on developing better engagement between Meteo Rwanda and users of weather and climate information with the aim of improving the quality of services delivered and promoting their understanding and application. Through this process and economic assessment (see Output 4) new and improved services will be identified along with channels for better dialogue. This will feed directly into activities in Outputs 2 and 3. Key to this process will be (a) equipping senior Meteo Rwanda staff with the skills to effectively engage policy and decision makers and the media around weather and climate issues (b) the retraining of current district-based Station Managers and observing staff in order for them to build better links with their District administrations and surrounding communities, allowing Meteo Rwanda to provide much enhanced local services (c) the training of non Meteo Rwanda staff from GoR ministries, NGOs, schools, community groups and so on to develop capacity to effectively engage stakeholders on weather and climate issues. This will be combined with a programme of awareness-raising around weather and climate issues in decision making, supported in part by research and materials developed in Output 4. In addition to this, the project will provide impetus to the creation and development of the Sector Stakeholders Group, which will act as a collective body of ‘customers’ on behalf of the public for ‘free at the point of use’ weather services and ensure that these are aligned to the needs of users (also see Section 2.5).

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This group, once operational, will provide significant opportunities for better engagement of Meteo Rwanda with its customers and a vehicle for discussion of key issues around weather and climate information. These outputs will support delivery of the Meteo Rwanda Strategic Plan and the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Service Delivery Strategy. Methodology This output is specifically designed to involve users in the development of relevant weather and climate information services, and to support their understanding and application. It is anticipated that this approach at the national level will be delivered in part through the Sector Stakeholders Group and at district and sub-district level through existing channels and working with partners on the ground. These will be identified further during the Inception Stage. The identification of user-relevant weather and climate services and channels for strengthened two-way dialogue can only result from extensive stakeholder engagement activities at all levels. However, in order for these activities to be successful, it is important that senior Meteo Rwanda staff members are equipped with the skills to effectively engage with policy and decision makers. In addition, at the district and sub-district levels, the retraining of station managers and observing staff will help to build improved links with both District administrations and local communities and allow them to identify and train a range of ‘climate information intermediaries’ within existing structures to support a significant up-scaling of Meteo Rwanda’s reach. The project will be informed in doing this by approaches developed during the previous EWS project, other initiatives in the region (including the Kenya StARK+ programme), and focus on participatory approaches (focus groups, game playing, workshops, participatory vulnerability assessments, semi structured interviews etc) and ‘hands on’, practical training. In our preparatory discussions with stakeholders, priority products are likely to be those relating to early warning and the seasonal forecasts, particularly in relation to agriculture. It is envisaged that in this output (a) a minimum of 10 new weather and climate products will be defined for example for severe weather events, forecasts for small scale farmers, early warning products and long term climate modelling products (as well as expansion of use of those already developed under the EWS project including severe rainfall warning and rainfall planner) (b) 1000 people will have capacity built to better understand and undertake effective stakeholder engagement around weather and climate issues and (c) the Sector Stakeholder Group will be constituted and operating effectively. Activities The key activities for this output are envisaged to be: Inception Stage Undertake stakeholder analysis with respect to weather and climate services Review of weather and climate-sensitive policies at national and sub-national level Support the set up and development of the Sector Stakeholders Group Identify potential new and revised products Implementation Stage Design and deliver training for Meteo Rwanda staff - participatory approaches

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Training for Meteo Rwanda Station Managers (13) to improve outreach Design and deliver training for non-Meteo Rwanda staff around weather and climate issues (agronomists, disaster monitors) Deliver a stakeholder engagement plan, and Develop the Sector Stakeholders Group Key Deliverables The key deliverables for this output will be: Identification of new and improved weather and climate services and products; Identification of improved channels for strengthened two-way dialogue between Meteo Rwanda and users; Capability built for effective stakeholder engagement at all levels (i.e. national, district, sub-district, local communities, etc); and Training and other materials for continued use within Meteo Rwanda and elsewhere. From Meteo Rwanda’s perspective: Changed culture that focuses on the users of its services and enhanced effectiveness of its programs. From the users’ perspective: The increased relevance of meteorological information to the users’ activities together with improvements in the accuracy, credibility and delivery of services received. Responsibilities Meteo Rwanda to lead (Didace Musoni), with support from Met Office. Involvement of national research institutions and universities, MIDIMAR, Red Cross, NGOs, RNRA, community groups and others.

Project Output 2 Improved capacity at Meteo Rwanda to design, produce and verify weather and climate information and products, based on sound science. Approach Accurate science underpins decisions made in the context of weather and climate in both the private and public domains – from developing national plans and policies through to decision-making by farmers on the choice of crop variety and timing of crop planting activities. Every user of weather and climate information has different requirements, meaning that information to support national development needs to be provided at a range of timescales from now-casting, to next season, to decades and centuries in the future. This output will build capacity within Meteo Rwanda, through a programme of mentoring/ training and specific technical inputs, to develop the blueprint or the layout plan of new and improved services. The blueprint includes inter-alia the specifications of services to develop, scope of users requirements, service infrastructure and system requirements, service procedures, production and performance standards for products identified in Output 1. These demand-led products will contribute towards the mainstreaming of weather and climate information into planning and development processes across the country, and will build upon the successes and achievements of the recently completed Early Warning Systems (EWS) project , managed by REMA and facilitated by Meteo Rwanda and the Met Office, which demonstrated a demand for a wider range of new and improved weather and climate services (additional needs for data acquisition,

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demand for modern forecasts systems, additional support for communication, training, research and development activities) . Work areas within this output will focus on (a) improvements to the observations network and data management (including the establishment/extension of a network of community-managed observations, in which schools, volunteer observers, farmers cooperatives will be directly involved in the expansion of the observation network) (b) EWS and forecasting products on short time scales (1-5 days), (c) seasonal forecast information on mid-range timescales (1-3 months), and (d) future projections of regional climate on longer timescales (30-100 years). In order to ensure the production of relevant weather and climate information, products on timescales described above requiring more detailed spatial information will be appropriately downscaled using tried and testing techniques. This will improve the relevancy of these products to districts and sub-districts across Rwanda. It is essential to ensure that Meteo Rwanda experts who will undertake the downscaling of this information have the most appropriate tools at hand for this task. It is envisaged that in this output (a) a minimum of 10 new weather and climate products, as identified in Output 1, will be developed and produced, with related standard operating procedures (b) a system of verification and validation of the forecasts developed and in use (c) the observations network improved in such a way as to support production of the new products and (d) a minimum of 30 Meteo Rwanda staff with improved professional skills, knowledge and competencies. Work Area (a) – Improvements to Observations Network Methodology The production and verification of all products related to weather and climate information requires a robust, long-running, well managed and maintained observational network to ensure that all products are based on good quality data. This is ideally required in adjacent regions of Africa as well as in target regions, but is particularly useful in areas especially prone to environmental risks. All subsequent activities in Output 2 will benefit from improvements to the existing observational network in which there will be migration from manual to automated network of instruments, enabling faster and more frequent collection and transfer of observations data in addition to an increased number of observation stations in the country, improving the spatial resolution of available data. This will not only improve scientific accuracy and reliability of weather and climate products, but can also enhance community engagement through the potential for community-managed observations as well as increasing public trust in the reliability of weather and climate information services provided by Meteo Rwanda. Activities Inception Stage Scoping of most cost effective observations upgrading (informed by the products identified in Output 1); Scoping of climatology and digitisation of existing data required Feasibility study for development of community managed observations by different stakeholders (such as tea farmers, crop insurance companies, devolved agro-meteorology stations, schools and private individuals)

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collecting meteorological data such as rainfall (using rain gauges) or other data types (e.g. temperature, wind speed and direction etc.) as appropriate and sharing this with Meteo Rwanda to the benefit of the country. Implementation Stage Specifications, sighting and procurement of observations stations (procurement of automatic weather stations and telemetric automated rain-gauge stations and school weather kits Procurement of calibration equipment, instrument consumables and spare parts Installation of observations equipment, set up communications and integration with climate database Production of Observations Maintenance Manuals and related documents to support the operation, management and security of the observations network Standard operating procedures for data management (both current and archived) Improvements to the climate data management system as identified Digitisation of selected existing archived data Creation of baseline climatology If deemed feasible, the further development and pilot implementation of a community managed observation network Continued maintenance and calibration of observations equipment Further development of the community managed observations network Much of this work will build on capacity developed and lessons learned during the EWS project which included the integration of 22 automatic weather stations purchased by REMA to the Meteo Rwanda network. It will support the consolidation of the introduction of ISO: 9001:2008 Quality Management System to Meteo Rwanda and the WMO Service Delivery Strategy. Key Deliverables The key deliverables will be: An improved and enhanced observations network (in terms of durability of instruments, reliability, data transmission, sensors calibrations, spatial distribution, improved data management system on site, improved skills in data treatment and research) focussed on the products and services to be designed and developed; A community managed observation network of weather stations planned and operational; Standard operating procedures for data management (both current and archived); and Expanded and improved baseline climatology. Responsibilities Meteo Rwanda to lead (Marcellin Habimana), with support from Met Office. Work Area (b) – Production of New Products Activities Inception Stage Scoping of forecasting techniques and skills required and development of training and mentoring plan

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Implementation Stage Development of products and produce standard operating procedures (all timescales) Verification and validation scheme for new products (all timescales) Development and implementation of a training and mentoring programme for Meteo Rwanda staff (all timescales) Design and implementation of a suite of regional climate modelling experiments Upgrades to hardware and software as required for effective production and dissemination of new products Building 4 meteo field offices at (Kawangire, Nyagatare, Bicumbi and Nyamagabe) to better environmental working conditions of weather observers. Early Warning and Short Range Products Severe and extreme weather events typically happen on short timescales of 1 hour to 5 days, and without appropriate warning and preparedness can result in devastating consequences for citizens. The Early Warning System project supported the development of a pilot severe weather early warning system in four districts of North West Rwanda, with developed products being limited to severe rainfall warnings. To scale-up the successes of this pilot, the proposed project aims to introduce a larger range of severe weather warning products by introducing integrated products from weather radar, satellite data informed by a denser network of ground automated stations. This will be underpinned by improved scientific understanding of the evolution of heavy rains, destructive winds, hailstorms, flash floods and thunderstorms and their likely locations in time and space. This is in addition to increasing the geographical coverage of the original early warning system. With lead information regarding the likelihood and potential impact of high impact weather events, planners will be enabled to mitigate damage and losses resulting from severe weather events and also consider hedging against such disasters. In this respect the intervention is cost-effective because it reduces substantially the number of fatalities, the number and extent of damages to infrastructure development and economic losses likely to be caused by extreme weather and climate events. Floods, landslides, strong winds, hail and lightning were previously identified as the primary short onset meteorological hazards facing Rwanda, for which early warning systems can potentially be put into place. As hydrological capabilities develop within Meteo Rwanda, it may also become possible to warn for specific types of flooding: flash flooding, river flooding and surface water flooding, although this is not envisaged to be included in this project (a separate proposed World Bank funded project currently under design is understood to be developing a pilot in this regard). The project will support the building of a strong working relationship between Meteo Rwanda and the Water Resources Management Department. Initial options for the geographical scaling-up of successes from the recent EWS project will commence with the extension of tailored early warning forecasts from the four pilot districts to a nationwide service. Additional severe weather products, informed by Output 1, shall then be rolled out to cover other geographical areas, based on the use of hazard and vulnerability mapping activities (currently being undertaken by MIDIMAR) to inform the most beneficial and relevant forecast product for a specific area. The project addresses the need for building connected, appropriate, deployable knowledge and experience acquired from EWS project during the exercise to generate tailored forecasts for four pilot districts and roll it to other districts. On short timescales, daily and weekly weather and climate information can be used to inform a variety of decision making processes, including water resource management, agricultural activities, and transport/infrastructure maintenance. Within this project, new and enhanced short range forecast products

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will be enhanced to address user requirements findings in Output 1, and will be communicated in the most effective manners identified and developed in Outputs 1 and 3. The provision of a new radar (procured under separate funding) has the potential to enhance greatly Meteo Rwanda’s capacity to forecast short onset extreme events. Key Deliverables (Early Warning and Short Range Products) The key deliverables will be: New severe weather EWS products developed through integrated weather radar technology, AWS real time data, satellite and modelling skills; already basic infrastructure such as a cluster computer is in place, modelling techniques and other necessary skills for early warning in order to maximise on this existing infrastructure shall be developed by this project; Geographical scaling-up of EWS to nationwide coverage; Standard operating procedures for the provision of short range forecast products on daily and weekly timescales, and Improved professional skills and competencies for Meteo Rwanda for all professionals for EWS and short range products. Responsibilities and Stakeholders (Early Warning and Short Range Products) Meteo Rwanda to lead (Anthony Twahirwa), with support from Met Office (Patrick Rule, Jenny Rourke), involvement of national research institutions and universities, MIDIMAR, Red Cross, RNRA. Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Products Weather and climate information on monthly to seasonal timescales is important for a wide range of informed decision making for agricultural productivity (e.g. choice of crop variety and timing of crop planting activities), public health monitoring (e.g. controlling the spread of diseases such as malaria) and water resource management. Many small hold farmers depend on rain-fed agriculture for their primary income, and are facing increasingly uncertain yields due to variability in expected seasonal conditions. Monthly and seasonal climate information can contribute to the reduction in this vulnerability, provided that this information is reliable and provided in an effective and relevant manner. Within this project, further capacity will be built at Meteo Rwanda for the production and practical application of monthly and seasonal outlooks on a routine (rolling 3-month) basis. This will consolidate and build upon the learning acquired during the previous EWS project, and will be further informed by a review of remaining capacity needs within Meteo Rwanda. The previous EWS project covered the underpinning science of seasonal forecasts, practical prediction tools, forecast verification, preparation of forecast texts for effective communication, and quality management. Follow-up training and technical support on the use of the Climate Prediction Tool (CPT) to produce forecast information will be provided. Using the information produced on seasonal timescales, Meteo Rwanda will establish a formal National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF) which will meet twice a year prior to each rainy season to understand discuss the seasonal forecast. This will build on the successful inaugural NCOF that was supported through the recent EWS project. In addition the project will support Meteo Rwanda making a contribution to Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) in order to participate in the consensus building of a seasonal climate

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outlook over the whole GHA region. On sub seasonal timescales, focus will be on the production and dissemination of monthly outlooks, as well as investigation into the prediction of rainy season onset and cessation, based on the findings of recent academic research (e.g. Vellinga et al., 2012). In related initiatives for the Greater Horn of Africa region, timings of rainy season onset and cessation have been raised as a topic of significant importance to rural farmers and local communities who depend on rain-fed agriculture and pastoralist activities as their primary livelihood. It may be possible to build on findings from other initiatives through links to research relevant to the Rwanda region. Similarly, there will be potential for more extensive partnership working with the Ministry of Agriculture (MINAGRI) and other stakeholders to support initiatives in early warning systems for food insecurity.

Key Deliverables (Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Products) The key deliverables will be: Updated standard operating procedures for the production of monthly and seasonal forecast information; Follow-up training and support on the use of CPT; Establishment of an NCOF process; and Consistent contribution to the GHACOF process, including national and regional level. Responsibilities (Monthly and Seasonal Forecast Products) Meteo Rwanda to lead (Anthony Twahirwa), with support from Met Office. Involvement of MINAGRI, national research institutions and universities. Long Term Climate Products Policy and adaptation planning activities on longer time scales (i.e. decades to the end of the century) require detailed and robust information on future climate scenarios for the region of Rwanda, as well as a thorough understanding of the uncertainties associated with such projections. Building upon progress made in the recent EWS project, during which the capability to produce regional climate projections using the PRECIS modelling tool was developed, the proposed project aims to build on this by coordinating a suite of regional climate modelling experiments to provide a range of information for both the present-day baseline climate as well as future climate projections. This activity would involve additional training workshops on developing and analysing climate scenarios lead by the Met Office at Meteo Rwanda. Based on the findings from stakeholder engagement activities in Output 1 regarding the identification of valuable future climate information for policy and planning activities, Meteo Rwanda will investigate the potential for producing and disseminating this information using the tools provided and skills gained in the recent EWS project and subsequent training activities. This work could involve using output from PRECIS to derive future impacts information for a specific sector, such as the future risk of changes to yields of a given crop or potential changes to thresholds for extreme weather events. A feasibility assessment and initial scoping for this work will be performed during the Inception Phase of the project.

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Key Deliverables (Long Term Climate Products) The key deliverables will be: Feasibility assessment of potential future climate information activities deemed valuable by Output 1; Additional regional climate simulations and projections, and Production of new and valuable information on climate timescales. Responsibilities (Long Term Climate Products) Meteo Rwanda to lead (Anthony Twahirwa), with support from Met Office. Involvement of line ministries, national research Institutions and Universities.

Project Output 3 Increased access to weather and climate information to users through a range of communication channels. Approach In order to achieve a transformational change in the delivery, understanding, uptake and use of weather and climate information in the decision-making process at national, district and sub-district level, a communications strategy is required, which will aim to improve or enhance a range of effective communication channels across the country. This strategy will consist of two parts. Firstly, it will include a review of the existing reach of the range of current communications networks, including local and national radio, TV, mobile, internet (website) and other social networks (including Twitter and Facebook, which Meteo Rwanda has utilised in the past), and identify and link with the most appropriate channels aiming for more extensive reach to weather and climate information users at all levels. Secondly, it will include an assessment of possible weather and climate ‘intermediaries’ consisting of existing networks for communication including those between ministries at the central and district levels, extension workers (particularly in agriculture), community groups, village meetings, NGO’s, religious groups and other groups to be identified. The strategy, which will be developed during the Inception Stage of the project will make recommendations for its implementation, including but not limited to (a) institutional issues relating to communication of weather and climate information (b) technical issues (c) capacity and training requirements (d) recommendations for the redesign of Meteo Rwanda products (e) the requirements for Meteo Rwanda to have service level agreements (or similar) in place and (f) phasing for the roll out of the communication system. It is envisaged that at the District level, simple District based plans for communication of weather and climate information could be prepared in collaboration between District administrations and Meteo Rwanda to ensure effective communications at the local level. The work will draw on an increasingly expanding body of research, demonstrating the most effective approaches for the communication of weather and climate services, promotion of their understanding and

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use as well as ensuring wide-spread uptake and increased appreciation of Meteo Rwanda’s weather and climate outputs. The activities within Output 3 will be undertaken by a suitably qualified and experienced communications specialist, who will lead research tasks into user needs and appropriate communication channels, aide with the redesign of Meteo Rwanda outputs for effective communication, and carry out training of Meteo Rwanda staff in using and applying new output formats and dissemination mechanisms as required. It is anticipated that at least 1 million households will benefit from improved access to weather and climate information through the work undertaken in this project. Methodology Work Area (a) – Assessment of Users Needs in Communications Context The first step towards defining how new and enhanced weather and climate information should be packaged and communicated is an investigation into the service needs of key audiences highlighted in Output 1. Each stakeholder group will have different information requirements and communication preferences, such as delivery language, format and channel of communication. Through stakeholder engagement activities in Output 1, the following user needs will be identified: Timing and frequency of information services (e.g. reports) needed by each group; Most appropriate channels of communication for reaching and influencing each stakeholder group and target audience. For example, the Internet will reach policy makers, planners and emergency responders easily, but will fail to reach local communities in regions with limited or no Internet access. These groups will require information to be communicated via radio (including local community radio), mobile telecoms, TV or other networks, including social media. The most appropriate language for delivery (e.g. local farmers will likely want to receive weather and climate information in Kinyarwanda, however businesses and senior government officials may prefer English or French); How to appropriately segment Rwanda geographically for the delivery of downscaled weather and climate information (this may vary according to the needs of each stakeholder group and possibilities offered by the channels of communication available); Additional information that should be delivered alongside weather and climate-related information, such as crop planting strategies, fertiliser and pesticide application advisories and animal husbandry linked to the monthly and seasonal forecasts; and Establishment of an existing baseline for communication. Work Area (b) – Investigation into the Reach, Capacity and Audiences of Local, District and National Media The Rwandese media is becoming rapidly more diverse, and audience loyalties are quickly changing. However, many media outlets lack the capacity to create and sustain high quality sophisticated programming. Findings from the above activity will provide information on the most appropriate media outlets to use for each target audience and the required formats to deliver information through these outlets most effectively. The most recent detailed media audience studies for Rwanda date from 2009 (Media High Council of Rwanda) and 2010 (Search for Common Ground). Both of these initiatives indicated: High popularity of radio, with approximately 80% of the population listening to radio programmes on a daily

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basis. State-run Radio Rwanda remains the dominant national player, but other stations have carved out important niche audiences at a regional level and within certain social groups; Mobile telecoms penetration is high, with extensive network coverage and over 80% of population either owning or having access to a mobile phone. Over 40% of Rwandese use mobile phones for text messaging, with very few using the mobile network for internet access on a regular basis; More than 50% of Rwandese have access to TV, but not all view TV programmes on a daily basis; and Access to the internet is relatively high amongst the educated urban elite, but is very low amongst the rest of the population. The above findings will be used as a basis for further investigation into the reach, capacity and audience of local media within the project, resulting in recommendations for the most effective dialogue channels for disseminating weather and climate information to a range of target audiences across the country. Through close integration with work in activity (a), a thorough understanding of both user needs and reach of existing communication channels will be developed at an early stage to ensure appropriately managed expectations throughout the duration of the project. Work Area (c) – Redesign of Meteo Rwanda Information to Meet User Requirements Based on the findings from the above two activities, the complete range of weather and climate information produced by Meteo Rwanda will be revised and redesigned in order to better meet the information needs of key stakeholder groups, the format requirements for communicating information through a range of different channels and the broadcast coverage area of key media partners. This process will involve the development of new content, types and formats of weather reports for delivery through different channels (e.g. radio, TV, internet, SMS, printed materials, etc.), as well as the possible creation of new premium information services that are designed to eventually become financially self-sustaining. Work Area (d) – Mapping of ‘Climate Information Intermediaries’ Although the project is aiming to make a transformational change in the way weather and climate information is communicated though ‘modern’ media many existing networks will still have a very relevant part to play. At this stage these so called ‘climate information intermediaries’ will be mapped and recommendations made as to which would be most appropriate in this context. Once the most appropriate channels have been identified, specific needs will be assessed and training and other requirements identified (this may be combined with training provided under Output 1, depending on its scope and nature). The development of this network of intermediaries at the district and sub-district levels will be a key activity for the retrained Meteo Rwanda Station Managers as their role shifts to a greater focus on communications and user engagement. It is envisaged that Station Managers will be supported in the preparation of a simple district based communications plan setting out the products that will be supplied at each District and the methods and responsibilities for communication. Work Area (e) – Implementation of the Communications Strategy The implementation of the strategy, once agreed will be supported by the project and is likely to include elements such as (a) roll out of SMS based system (b) rollout of radio communication (including community radio) (c) roll out of other communication systems identified (including social media) (c) training on media and preparation of forecasts for different media types (d) preparation of district based communication plans (e)

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climate information intermediaries training. Activities The key activities for this output are envisaged to be: Inception Stage Assessment of users needs in context of communications; Investigation into the reach, capacity and audiences of local and national media (based on media workshop) and other communications channels (SMS, social media etc.); Redesigning weather and climate outputs for media use including media and other related training; Climate Intermediaries assessment; and Development of a National Communications Strategy for Weather and Climate Services. Implementation Stage Implementation of the Communications Strategy; Seasonal Forecast dissemination (NCOF, GHACOF consultative group and provincial dissemination) Development and implementation of district communications plans; Development of Service Level Agreements (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda and customers; and Design and delivery of ‘intermediary’ training. Project Completion Stage Monitoring of access to weather and climate information through various channels, including review and update of communications channels. Key Deliverables The key deliverables for this output will be: A communications strategy for weather and climate information developed and implemented; Redesigned Meteo Rwanda outputs addressing user needs for weather and climate information and in formats that enable a range of data and information access channels to be utilised. The most effective communication channels for disseminating weather and climate information to a range of target audiences will be identified, with new products and services developed for these media; and Developed and implemented District based communication plans. Responsibilities Meteo Rwanda to lead, with support from Met Office. Involvement of line ministries and media, including TV and national/ community radio.

Project Output 4 Project management and coordination strengthened (including assessment of social and economic value of

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weather and climate services and development and dissemination of learning materials) Approach Weather and climate information needs to be mainstreamed into policy and planning activities in local and national government. In order to do this, extensive efforts are required to promote increased understanding of the weather and climate information available. A basic understanding is needed of the concepts of confidence (uncertainty) and probability in forecasts at different time scales and the ways in which weather and climate information can inform decision making needs to be assessed. The potential implications of this information on Rwanda’s social and economic development can then be evaluated. This will be addressed by the development and implementation of a framework for project evaluation of the outputs of the project which will be focussed around raising awareness of weather and climate issues and its links to development in Rwanda. This will include research (particularly around economic and value for money issues), evaluation of Meteo Rwanda’s institutional performance and production of relevant materials. More specifically, this output will develop a programme of work which will undertake research into the social and economic value of improved weather and climate services. It will examine the factors governing uptake and appropriate application of weather and climate information and the relationship between climate change and socio-economic development. The results of this will be aimed at advocating for the integration of weather and climate services in policy making, planning and budgeting across sectors, timeframes and decision making levels. In addition, the project will develop and implement a programme of awareness-raising around weather and climate information, and Meteo Rwanda’s new services developed in Output 2 and 3. This will include a range of materials, events and other activities that will be developed to target specific audiences and which can be used by Meteo Rwanda at the centre and in Districts to develop their external relationships. This could, for example, include engagement across a range of sectors including education, agriculture, industry and marketing. The programme can explore possibilities for linking with existing environmental or climate activities in school, expert panel discussion shows and phone-in sessions on those media identified as most effective in reaching different user groups, events, displays and stands at key sectoral conferences and fairs, and competitions focused around specific thematic days e.g. World Environment Day or World Water day. Lastly, in order to monitor achievements across the project duration, a rigorous monitoring and evaluation (M&E) framework will be developed and implemented to track progress against the Outcome/Output Indicators highlighted in the logical framework document. This will include collation of baseline data and confirmation of indicators and targets during the Inception Stage. Methodology Work Area (a) – Economic Value of Improved Weather and Climate Services There is a growing body of research in Africa and elsewhere which demonstrates that investment in disaster risk reduction, resilience building and early response employing weather and climate information, if well-designed, can provide significant returns on investment. The value for money (VfM) aspects of the project will be divided into three principal components (i) an overarching forward looking cost benefit analysis (CBA) of the provision of improved weather and climate

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services in Rwanda (ii) an ongoing review of research into the impact of climate change (including socio-economic impacts) and (iii) value for money case studies. The forward looking CBA will be undertaken at the beginning of the project to demonstrate the likely cost effectiveness of the project’s activities in supporting the socio-economic growth of Rwanda and to provide guidance on the type of sectors and products that are likely to represent best value for money. The CBA will be developed through a combination of research methods including: Interviews with key stakeholders in country to ascertain (a) the current state of meteorological services in Rwanda (b) the historical frequency and magnitude of the most prevalent extreme weather events Rwanda has experienced and the type of extreme weather events the country is likely to experience in the future and (c) the scale of the key sectors of the Rwandan economy and their dependence on weather patterns; Desk based research to ascertain (a) the likely impact (magnitude) of different types of extreme weather events (b) internationally recognised valuation approaches to the socio-economic impacts experienced as a result of extreme weather events and (c) approaches to modelling different countries’ levels of preparedness against extreme weather events; and Internal discussions with the Project Team’s meteorological experts and others within Meteo Rwanda to ascertain (a) the precise capital and operational costs of the various proposed project activities. Combined, the data gathered through these techniques will provide the benefits (to economic sectors) and the costs of the project, allowing us to model, using a CBA framework, the likely societal return on investment of the project and what type of meteorological information and products will provide best value. While disaggregating the overall impact to specific project activities is not always a straight forward task, creation of a theory of change at the beginning of the analysis will help us to generate recommendations as to the relative VfM of the project’s various activities. The review of climate change research will take place throughout the life time of the project. It will at first provide data for the forward looking CBA, but then provide on-going data useful to the VfM case studies as well as informing execution of other elements of the project. Value for Money case studies (up to 5) will be developed based on a review of the results of the forward looking CBA and in conjunction with a wide variety of stakeholders, and undertaken during the lifetime of the project. These projects will look to build on the foundations of the existing M and E frameworks that will be developed for the project’s various outputs. Where possible, indicators will be aligned with those proposed in the FONERWA manual and evidence collected to produce evaluative VfM analyses (as opposed to forecastive). The case studies will look to evidence VfM based on DFID’s 3Es (economy, efficiency and effectiveness) and at least two of the five suggested VfM case studies will use more holistic approaches to measuring cost effectiveness are employed, such as social return on investment (SROI) or multi-criteria appraisal (MCA). These methodologies take a different philosophical approach to understanding VfM than traditional CBA. Whilst the nature of the case studies still needs to be determined, there are possibilities for investigating the use of weather and climate service by the private sector and the scope for the introduction of premium (paid for) products at a later date. To execute the VfM case studies in a cost effective manner, we propose to identify and then train a local organisation in these VfM techniques. This training will not only capacity build local partners, but also provide this Project, and in the future Meteo Rwanda, with a local partner who is able to design and collect data fit for a VfM analysis.

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Work Area (b) – Awareness-raising and Cross Learning To raise awareness of new and enhanced services developed by Meteo Rwanda within the project and the importance of weather and climate services more generally, a programme of events and other activities will be developed and implemented. These will focus specifically on increasing the uptake and integration of weather and climate information services into national, district and local planning, budgeting and decision making processes. The initiative will seek to link with ongoing planning process at different levels and across sectors. It will also develop a programme of events and activities to target specific user groups, and will aide in the development of Meteo Rwanda’s external relationships on national, district and local scales. To promote shared learning of the project achievements and lessons learnt, participation will be required in various activities and events within regional and international fora. These activities may include presenting and showcasing to climate community (e.g. NCOFs, GHACOFs, WMO Global Framework for Climate Services meetings), as well as relevant humanitarian, disaster risk reduction and development conferences. Highlighting progress and achievements at a range of events, as well as future project aims and ongoing tasks, are likely to prove very relevant and timely with the renegotiation of the Hyogo Framework for Action for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015. The project will develop a list of project materials (briefing notes, publications, learning materials and so on) and identify channels for engagement nationally, regionally and internationally during the Inception Stage. This will be updated as the project progresses. Work Area (c) – Development and implementation of M&E framework In order to monitor achievements throughout the project lifetime, a rigorous M and E framework will be developed and implemented. M andE activities will be participatory in nature, co-producing a set of relevant indicators and methods with a wide range of users. These indicators will be used for ongoing monitoring and review of the access, use and benefits of weather and climate information at local, district and national decision making levels, to ensure the continuous improvement of services provided by Meteo Rwanda. A key overall measure of success will be the improved institutional performance of Meteo Rwanda, particularly in relation to services delivery. A specific indicator for this will be developed for Output 4, based on the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) Service Delivery Framework. Activities The key activities for this output are envisaged to be: Inception Stage Undertake economic analysis of the benefits of improved weather and climate services; Development and implementation of a monitoring and evaluation framework; and Implementation Stage Produce and disseminate materials to support understanding and uptake of weather and climate information. General support to Project Management and Technical Coordination.

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Key Deliverables M and E framework developed and being used; Findings from research based on economic value of weather and climate information produced and informing decision making Awareness-raising programme developed and being implemented, including cross learning events and activities at international, national and district level. Responsibilities Meteo Rwanda to lead, with support from Met Office and external contracts (New Economic Foundation) Work Plan and Phasing The work plan is included as Annex A. The project is anticipated to last 3 years (including a 6 month inception phase at the start and a 6 month completion phase at the end). The Inception Phase (6 months) is designed to include all the necessary preparatory and background work to enable the project to be implemented effectively and in a way that ensures value for money. In outline, this will include (a) initial start up activites, staffing etc (b) stakeholder engagement and policy and plan analysis (c) scoping of observations upgrading, climatology and data issues (d) preparation of a national communications strategy for meteorological services (e) forward looking cost benefit analysis, (f) monitoring and evaluation framework and establishing baselines and (g) detailed costings. Taken together these will provide a basis for determining the weather and climate services that will be developed, how they will be communicated, understood and used, within a robust framework for monitoring and evaluating, awareness raising and lesson learning. In addition, this stage will allow all partners and stakeholders involved to participate in scoping activities and full development of subsequent outputs. The Implementation Phase (24 months) will include all the activites (as set out above) to develop and produce the new products, communicate them and support their understanding and utilisation – and to demonstrate their impact. The project completion stage (6 months) will consist of further activites to ensure sustainability of the project, final evaluation and consolidation and further dissemination of the project outputs. Addressing cross-cutting issues

Q 2.4 How does the project address cross-cutting issues such as gender and youth? As part of the initial stakeholder engagement process during the Inception phase, the project proposes undertaking a stakeholder analysis (including power and gender) to ensure that the proposed development of services is as inclusive as possible. User engagement (Output 1) will seek to identify the channels which most effectively reach those groups most marginalised and most at risk from climate variability and change. This analysis will inform the development of outputs (Output 2) to ensure that these are provided in formats and at temporal and geographic scales which can support decision making at individual, household, community, provincial and national levels. Ensuring that the channels selected are trusted by and reach the most

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marginalised will be vital (Output 3). All monitoring and evaluation will be disaggregated by gender (Output 4).

Gender and Family Past experience shows that climate change extremes and disasters disproportionally affect women and girls – and often they do not have access to the right information to make livelihood decisions either because of the information format or the communication channel. In Rwanda, women provide much of the rural labour force, hence are key to the use of weather and climate information services to support improvements in agricultural practices. In Output 1, the project will consult with women and understand how and when women would like to receive information, and what information is most relevant for their decision making processes. This will inform the most appropriate communication channels to be provided in Output 3. In addition the project will include the Ministry of Gender and Family Promotion (MIGEPROF) as a stakeholder.

Youth and Education There are many areas where weather, water and climate services can have applications. The issue is to identify the particular application areas and assist use of such information. Education is a particular concern, especially to enable young people to better access and use the information services as they move into employment, and to enable them to understand and adapt to climate change impacts over the long term. Weather and climate provides good practical examples of applied science, maths and geography for use by teachers at all levels. Curriculum development and education resources have an impact beyond schools by spreading the learning to parents and wider family. This project will provide weather kits as a part of development of resources for schools and their use customised to support awareness campaigns and national education curriculum goals. The retraining of Meteo Rwanda Station Managers will also enable them to engage better with their local communities, including schools, who will be able to enter into contractual agreements to carry-out observation and manage climate records with guidance from Meteo Rwanda. This builds upon an existing climate network under the EWS project, where weather station kits for schools were procured by REMA. Primarily, these are for educational purposes and for motivation into understanding the interaction between weather and climate with environment the pupils live in. The additional weather stations procured and supplied to schools by this project will focus both on education and data collection. They will be managed by the schools, with Meteo Rwanda data processing and management division providing guidance in good use and care of these kits.

Disability and social inclusion There is a particular issue for people with disabilities in potential life-threatening and disaster situations. People with learning difficulties are likely to have problems in understanding warnings and taking suitable avoiding action. People with physical difficulties may not have the mobility to avoid danger. Community support is essential to support these people and this depends on disaster preparedness activities at a community level. A specific section of the plan for implementation of an extended EWS for Rwanda will ensure that accessible warnings are provided to people living with disabilities and their careers.

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Q 2.5 Who are the stakeholders affected by the problem, and who are the stakeholders influential in solving the problem? How have they been incorporated and involved in project design and delivery?

The primary stakeholders will be users of improved weather and climate information which will include Rwandese at all levels of the social and economic spectrum including (a) public policy officials (at central and district levels) (b) sectoral decision makers (e.g. water resources and agricultural planners) (c) disaster managers and first responders (d) farmers and farming cooperatives (e) the general public and (f) the private sector. The project will address how improved services are best developed to meet the needs of women, the vulnerable and the youth. Output 1 of the project is specifically designed to involve users in the development of more relevant services and to support their understanding and application. It is anticipated that this approach at the sub-district level will be delivered through existing systems and channels as well as by working with partners on the ground. The recently completed EWS project undertook consultations at the national, district and village levels and identified the demand for improved services (ref: EWS project report and scoping report of 21st December 2012, both available in REMA and METEO Rwanda). At a national level and as part of this project, Meteo Rwanda aims to establish a Sector Stakeholders Group. This will represent the customers of the agency and ensure that their services are aligned to the operational needs of users and thus ensure the long-term sustainability of service delivery. The Sector Stakeholders Group will also act as a guardian of Meteo Rwanda’s underpinning operational capability. It will be responsible for setting requirements of and specifying outputs from Meteo Rwanda, supporting research and development to meet future requirements, and providing independent advice and recommendation to the Minister of Infrastructure. The proposed Sector Stakeholders Group would include representatives from MININFRA, MINAGRI, MINALOC, MINIRENA, RNRA, EWSA, RCAA, MIDIMAR, MINISANTE, the Joint Force Operation and the Red Cross/Crescent. These stakeholders have been incorporated and involved in project design and delivery through a stakeholder workshop which was held on the 27 March 2014. After hearing about the proposed project, delegates were invited to explore how it would affect their sector and to make recommendations on how the project could be refined to ensure it delivers maximum benefit to their end users. These recommendations were then incorporated into the project proposal where possible. Some examples of such recommendations include (a) MINAGRI – requesting deterministic forecast on planting dates and rainfall, capacity building for production and use of climate information (b) MINECOFIN – requesting climate information for decision making (c) REMA – requesting climate change modelling to 2km resolution and modeller capacity and (d) MIDIMAR: monitoring of extreme weather events with improved lead-times, research into causes of severe weather events and risk maps with vulnerability levels (partly being developed under a separate initiative). Where possible these suggestions have been considered in the project design and are some are specifically addressed in Output 2 once the weather radar is in place and operationalised this financial year (2014/15). The notes from the meeting are included as Annex B. Further discussion will be held with these stakeholders as the project progresses.

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Q 2.6 How will the benefits of the project be sustained after FONERWA funding comes to an end?

The project will ensure sustainability after the project funding comes to end in the following ways: 1. The cost of producing new products, improving and disseminating about 10 existing products is RWF

16,996,500 over three years. This means that the unit cost of one product is RWF1.7 million to benefit Rwandans for diverse applications. This cost can easily be sustained from regular budget of Meteo Rwanda in future.

2. Through Output 1 improved understanding of weather and climate application will be achieved for at least 1000 people at a cost of FRW 115,000 per person. If we consider a multiplier effect that one person could benefit a minimum of 6 more people in an average single household without extra cost, the cost per person reduces to RFW 19,166 which is affordable and hence sustainable from the regular budget.

3. The cost of engaging 8 stakeholders groups into partnerships is RFW 10 million (RFW 1.25million per group, irrespective of the size). The benefits to the group and to Meteo Rwanda are therefore considered high for such cost.

4. Overall, the project aims to incorporate better weather and climate information into policies and plans which will endure after the end of the project, and therefore make a contribution to sustainable development. The project aims to embed these procedures into decision making processes. As part of this process, the project will demonstrate to the public how they can benefit from better use of weather and climate information, and through this, influence policymakers to support weather and climate programmes that support wealth creation.

5. The project will provide the one off funding required for building institutional capacity within Meteo Rwanda, through the introduction of new techniques, approaches and ways of working in addition to professional development. Once developed these will become part of Meteo Rwanda’s standard operating procedures and quality assurance system.

6. Meteo Rwanda’s capability and capacity will be enhanced as a result of this project in respect of: increased the spatial and temporal resolution as well as the quality of acquired data as a result of improvements to the observations network; the increasing skill of its forecasters and scientists in developing and delivering new products and services aligned to the needs of the country; and the increased engagement of its managers with stakeholders. These enhancements will position the Agency to develop additional services in other sectors and areas of Rwandan life, thus delivering long-term benefits to the nation. It offers the potential, at a later date, for development of commercial (paid for) weather and climate information products.

7. The development and maintenance of an improved observations network offers the potential for employment in rural areas, for caretakers or those undertaking maintenance, with this observation network underpinning the long-term future of Meteo Rwanda.

8. The education and awareness programmes that will be developed to ensure that the benefits of this project can be fully realised will lead to greater environmental awareness in the population, particularly among women and the young, providing a sustainable benefit for the nation in terms of understanding weather and climate. Such raised awareness will help with actions needed to mitigate, or adapt to, climate change.

9. The three year development plan sets a gradual but stable recruitment and training program that motivates staff, with improved remuneration rates and job security, with the majority of Meteo Rwanda staff migrating to permanent contracts with pensionable terms of service. Thus the knowledge and skills acquired through the project implementation will be sustained as the staff whose skills and experience have been developed during the project will remain at the organisation.

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Q 2.7 What is the scope for income generation from the project? Meteo Rwanda, under their founding Law, has the potential to generate income from ‘proceeds of its services’, but currently services are delivered free at the point of use. However, since the government investment into the meteorological infrastructure is substantial, the project will investigate the potential for premium or paid for services to be developed in future and recommend possible ways forward. Of more impact, however, is the potential for better weather and climate information to support income generation for example (a) at the household level, through increased crop yields, (b) in the private sector, by making their operations more resilient (c) at national level through more informed planning. The economic analyses proposed under Output 4 of the project will attempt to quantify the potential benefits (including increased income) of the improved services. Q 2.8 Preparation: Has a feasibility or pre-feasibility study been conducted (If yes, then please attach a copy to

this PD)? No specific feasibility or pre-feasibility studies have been carried out. However, this project builds on the recently completed (REMA funded) EWS project that Meteo Rwanda and the Met Office have been collaborating on. This included (a) severe rainfall warning product development through a participatory approach involving forecasters, disaster managers, District based officials and the public (b) development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOPS) and (c) improvement of forecaster capability to deliver severe weather products. The EWS project forms a basis for the scaling up of the service, which this project addressed and has provided a ‘proof of concept’ for project design. In addition the project design draws on elements similar projects elsewhere that aim to decentralise service delivery and improve the reach of their services. The EWS project final summary document is available on request. Q 2.9 Preparation: Are there any outstanding regulatory or legal requirements that need to be met before the

project can proceed (access to land, planning consent, use of new technologies)? Meteo Rwanda’s new Agency mandates management of finances to be transferred from their parent Ministry, once the necessary financial arrangements and staff are in place. This would allow establishment of a separate project account (this could be used for other projects as well). The new arrangements will significantly streamline project administration and address issues of delayed payments with have been problematic in past projects. Meteo Rwanda is in the process planning how these arrangements can be swiftly introduced. Q 2.10 Preparation: Has an Environmental Impact Assessment been conducted for the project (If yes, then please

attach a copy to this PD)? An Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) has not been carried out for the project as a whole because it focuses on improving service delivery by building on existing meteorological infrastructure. However, where new buildings or stations are planned, EIA may be required for some elements of the project and will be conducted on a case by case basis. Nonetheless, overall, the project is expected to have a positive environmental impact.

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Q 2.11 How will the performance of the project be monitored and evaluated (both during and after the project)? The logframe (included as Annex C) sets out the proposed headline indicators at impact, outcome and output levels. These will be further developed during the Inception Phase, which will include the development of a comprehensive framework for monitoring and evaluation and complete set of indicators and baseline. Indicators will be developed in collaboration with key stakeholders employing a variety of established and innovative measures for assessing socio-economic impact across each level of decision making from the individual and household to district and national planning processes. The framework will seek to monitor both the quality of climate products produced, as well as the process of developing user-relevant climate information services developing context-relevant indicators to measure access, understanding, use and benefits across key user groups. Indicators related to climate products (Output 2) will measure the number and reliability of the products across geographic and temporal scales, improvements in Meteo Rwanda staff competencies and the observations network. Indicators related to the process of developing relevant climate information services (user-relevant products, use, understanding and behaviour change) will be focused on Outputs 1 and 3. Indicators related to assessing the socio-economic benefits, awareness raising and synthesising learning (Output 4) will encompass a range of milestones (including the production of case studies, analysis, reports and presentations) as well as user surveys. The range of indicators will encompass both qualitative and quantitative measures. They will for example seek to contribute to FONERWA’s performance indicators, but also include more in-depth quantitative and qualitative analyses to build understanding of the links between improved access to relevant climate information, uptake and appropriate use of this information, and benefits. The framework will need to encompass a range of methodologies which support enhanced understanding of knowledge, attitude and practice, including focus group discussions with at risk groups before, during and after the provision of seasonal and sub-seasonal climate information. This will be used alongside information gathered through other participatory approaches which allow users to themselves identify key causal linkages between climate information communication, use and benefits, including stakeholder narratives, outcome mapping and most significant change. The framework will encompass complementary economic analysis. The project will develop a range of indicators to measure the socio-economic benefits of improved climate information services at different decision making levels. The combination of quantitative and qualitative analyses will support attribution of benefits for investing in improved Climate Information Services (CIS) and identify continued blockages which require addressing to unlock the resilience building potential of enhanced CIS. Monitoring and evaluation processes will be supported by a learning framework, supported by the creation of channels for two-way dialogue across decision making levels and designed to support ongoing review and revision to ensure that the weather and climate service is continuously improved and seek to meet evolving learning and identified user concerns. Initial baselines coupled with ongoing monitoring and evaluation at different decision making levels plus regular post seasonal review amongst users, policymakers and technical stakeholders will allow ongoing revision. The project will also, wherever possible, seek to link and integrate these activities within existing decision making frameworks and review channels to support ownership and institutionalisation of inclusive systems for climate risk management.

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More detailed monitoring and evaluation measures will emerge as part of the work described in section 2.3 under Output 4. Specifically, we will agree with a wide range of users a set of relevant indicators and methods for ongoing monitoring and review of the access, use and benefits of weather and climate information at local, district and national decision making levels, to ensure the continuous improvement of Meteo Rwanda services provided. This is seen as a key deliverable. With regards frequency of monitoring, evaluation and reporting:

At Inception Stage, an agreed monitoring and evaluation framework, based on the logframe developed at the PD stage will be agreed and baselines established;

Activities will be monitored on a monthly basis by the Project Team, with progress being reported every quarter;

Progress against the project outcome and outputs will be reviewed on a quarterly basis (or a the end of a season if appropriate);

A mid-term review will be carried out to identify key areas of learning and assess outcome and impact level changes, including a review of the overall approach, and

An end of project assessment will be carried out to formally assess the project impact and inform future programme design.

Cost for monitoring and evaluation are included in Output 4 and within separate activites. They are estimated to be around 10% of the project value, including the economic analyses set out. A monitoring and evaluation matrix is included as Annex D.

Q 2.12 How will you involve the beneficiaries and other stakeholders in monitoring and evaluation? Delivery of this project depends on the establishment of two-way communication channels with stakeholders at all levels. As part of the work under Output 4 in which a series of indicators will be developed and a baseline established, a range of stakeholders will become engaged in the monitoring and evaluation process. For example, at the Ministry level, the degree of integration of weather and climate information into policy will be measurable in terms of policy statements but, more robustly, through the impact on plans and budgets. When the performance of these plans and budgets is monitored under routine government procedures the feedback will provide a valuable input into the evaluation of this project. At the more local level, the development of new weather and climate services will be monitored in terms of uptake and the impact on the local community. Such monitoring can be passive, for example by evaluating press coverage – positive and negative – and can be active by means of surveys, for instance identifying the number of farmers that are using the new services and asking for their feedback on the impact on their lives and livelihoods. The impact on areas such as water resource managers or agricultural planners will be measurable and, as part of the process of developing robust monitoring and evaluation measures, they will be encouraged to provide feedback on the impact to their areas of business activity. Similar dialogues will be pursued with other affected sectors of society such as schools and youth organisations as well as women and disabled people together with their carers, who will be encouraged to engage with this project during the period of establishing user requirements. Q 2.13 Which Output from the FONERWA's overarching M&E framework will be contributed to in the project's

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M&E Framework (if possible choose an indicator from FONERWA's M&E framework)?

The project is intended to achieve a transformational change in the delivery, understanding and use of weather and climate information in decision-making at national, district, sub-district and household levels. Ultimately this will contribute to reducing vulnerability in Rwanda (FONERWA Impact Indicator 1) and in building resilience to climate change impacts (FONERWA Output Indicator 2.4). More directly, the project will contribute to FONERWA Output Indicator 2.1: number of monitoring and management information systems (MISs) with sufficient environmental and climate change data to inform policy decisions. A key objective of the project will be to produce relevant, demand-led weather and climate information that will inform not only policy but also planning and budgeting; programme and project design; and household decisions. The project will also promote better understanding of weather and climate information and how it may best be utilised. In addition, and for the same reasons, the project will contribute to delivery of FONERWA Output 3 – environment and climate change issues mainstreamed into policies, programmes, plans and budgets, and activities for public and non-public agencies. Q 2.14 Lesson Learning: Please explain how the learning from this project will be disseminated and shared during

(and at the end) of the project, and to whom this information will target (e.g. Project stakeholders and others outside the project)

Lessons learnt and best practice arising from the project will be captured through the learning framework which is included in Output 4. Information will be shared at several levels – at community level by the two way dialogue and approaches and the establishment of the Sector Stakeholder Group in Output 1, for example. The project will develop and implement a programme of awareness-raising around weather and climate information, and Meteo Rwanda’s new services developed in Outputs 2 and 3. This will include a range of materials, events and other activities that will be developed to target specific audiences and which can be used by Meteo Rwanda at the centre and in districts to develop their external relationships. This could, for example, include engagement across a range of sectors including education, agriculture, industry and marketing. The programme can explore possibilities for linking with existing environmental or climate activities in school, expert panel discussion shows and phone-in sessions on those media identified as most effective in reaching different user groups, events, displays and stands at key sectoral conferences and fairs, and competitions focused around specific thematic days e.g. World Environment Day or World Water day. Output 4 specifically includes for production of a range of materials (briefing notes, publications etc) to support awareness-raising. A ‘lessons learnt’ log will also form part of the project closure documentation.

Project Risk management Q 2.15 Risk Management: Please outline the main risks to the successful delivery of this project indicating

whether they are high, medium or low. If the risks are outside your direct control, how will the project be designed to address them?

A risk assessment for the project was carried out and identified nine main risks to the successful delivery of the project. These are set out in the risk matrix below, with assessment of probability and impact, and mitigation measures. The overall project risk rating for each output and the project as a whole is assessed as Medium.

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Risk Probability Impact Mitigation (included in project)

High turnover and poor retention policy of key staff.

H H The project will ensure the retention of key skilled and experienced staff within Meteo Rwanda through allowances for core project staff and including those on project assignment. Recognition of independence of the Agency structure that attracts good salaries

GoR loses interest in climate-focused agenda

L H Use cost benefit analysis of this project to advocate increased focus

Insufficient resources at Meteo Rwanda to deliver project outcomes

M H Identify any projected or actual shortfalls; liaise with Director of Meteo Rwanda to provide resource, if necessary seconding from other areas

Stakeholders reluctant to engage in process

L H Stakeholder analysis in the inception phase of Output 1 will identify key stakeholders and mechanisms for engagement and ways of motivating stakeholders to engage, including establishment of the Sector Stakeholders Group.

New products and services not communicated effectively

M H Ensure the communication channels are identified as part of the analysis of user requirements early in the project, and update as necessary. Preparation and implementation of the communications strategic plan

Data gaps from poorly-maintained weather stations

M M Implement robust maintenance regime. Use quality control procedures to identify any missing data promptly; dispatch engineers or local caretakers. Explore data interpolation.

Difficulty developing sustainable communication channels at district or sub-district level

L M Identify champions from pilot areas to advocate this development. Adapt alternative approach where needed. Use wide range of ‘climate intermediaries’

Stakeholders unable to understand probabilistic nature of some of the information being issued

H M Develop education and awareness campaigns, and involve schools and other educational establishments. Identify community advocates who can help explain the message. Develop tools, e.g. colour coding, to clarify such messages.

Socio-economic benefits not immediately apparent

M L Explain long-term nature of this project’s benefits in light of natural variability in weather and climate. Identify any quick wins and celebrate them. Include economic

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analysis in project

Low understanding and awareness of weather and climate information among government policy-makers

M H Develop education and awareness campaigns for decision-makers with particular emphasis on cost benefit and value for money rather than the detailed science

Q 2.16 Risk Management: What specific risks, if any, does your project pose to the environment, people or institutions affected by the project and how will these be managed and mitigated?

There is a risk of over-reliance on the new products and services leading to poor decision-making by stakeholders at all levels. An education and awareness campaign must accompany the development of these new products and services in order that all stakeholders have an appropriate understanding of the potential benefits of the new services but also their limitations. This applies to Meteo Rwanda personnel involved in their production and dissemination as well as the users of the services. This campaign will include workshops or seminars for government stakeholders, while at sub-district level leaflet and press campaigns might be more suitable, depending on the findings of studies into communication channels carried out under Output 1. A programme of verification of the new products and services will help develop confidence in their value and will also help to validate the assumptions made in the cost benefit analysis accompanying this proposal.

SECTION 3: PROJECT BUDGET AND VALUE FOR MONEY Q 3.1 What is the total cost of the project (RWF; provide total cost for each year of the project disaggregated by

capital and recurrent expenditure)? The total cost of the project including contribution in kind is RWF 1,897,822,627 (Year 1 – RWF 453,105,283; Year 2 – RWF 865,680,276; Year 3 – 312,763,200). Capital costs are estimated to be approximately RWF 341,850,276 over the three year of the project. The outline project budget is included as Annex E. Q 3.2 What is the total amount requested from FONERWA (RWF; provide financing needs for each year of the

project)?

The total amount requested is RWF 1,645,740,200 (one billion, six hundred and forty five million, seven hundred and forty two, and two hundred). Year 1 - RWF 336,905,113; Year 2 – RWF 849,201,700; Year 3 – RWF 226,576,720 Q 3.3 List all other sources of funding. Note whether the status of other funding sources (i.e. Whether the

money has been approved or is awaiting authorisation) Meteo Rwanda will make an in-kind contribution of RWF 252,000,000 (two hundred and fifty two million) in terms of staff costs and use of equipment and facilities. Implementation of this Project will likely enable participation in other projects with associated funding, especially linked to the development and delivery of specific services, although this is not a prerequisite for implementation of this project.

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Q 3.4 Additionality: Explain why the project cannot be fully financed by other sources than FONERWA? The Fonerwa fund constitutes a suitable funding stream as this project is strongly aligned to the fund’s

objectives and offers potential opportunities for coordination and collaboration with other projects supported

by Fonerwa. In addition, the fund provides an avenue for funding to be allocated directly to meteo rwanda,

rather than being managed by third parties, thus putting them in full control of the project design, its

management and implementation, and potentially allowing them to seek additional funding from other

sources. The majority of costs will be one off costs to develop and introduce new approaches and techniques,

develop capacity and invest in improved forecasting and application, which are not available through existing

government budgets.

The Value for Money (Economy) Q 3.6 Value for Money (Economy): Briefly describe how the required inputs have been identified and how the GoR procurement procedures will be used to ensure they are obtained cost effectively Provide identified unit cost measures or selected project outputs? (Please see VfM guidelines on how to determine these. Further guidance from the FONERWA Secretariat is available) The anticipated level of required inputs to achieve the project objective have been broadly based on those required for similar initiatives in Rwanda (the EWS project) and elsewhere in the regional and internationally. Inputs will be refined during the Inception Stage. Value for money (economy) for this project predominantly relates to two main areas – costs of inputs for professional expertise and for purchase of goods (primarily observations and communications equipment). Value for money for both these items, and the project more generally, starts with its demand led nature but will be developed further through Output 4. During the Inception Stage the project will identify the weather and climate information and products that are most relevant for better decision making, and the most appropriate communication channels. This will inform the detailed scope of the project, meaning that all inputs will be focussed on delivering outputs driven by demand. Observations and other equipment will be procured using GoR procedures and under competitive tender, with costs benchmarked against provision of similar equipment elsewhere. Meteo Rwanda has a Department of Procurement appointed in accordance with Rwanda Procurement Authority (RPPA) guidelines. This team will prepare and approve tender documents, following the tendering and bid evaluation processes as guided by the RPPA to ensure value for money when selecting which bidder and from which suppler should the instruments or equipment be procured. Costs for professional inputs from the Met Office will be benchmarked against fees charged for similar projects.

Development of standard costs for weather and climate information services depends on very many factors and further work will be done during the economic analysis proposed by the project in the Inception Stage.

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Unit costs for value for money indicators at the economy level are however likely to include measures such as (a) development of a new product (b) production of a forecast (c) training per person in stakeholder engagement around weather and climate (d) cost per weather station (e) cost per person of communicating forecast and (f) cost per person/ household for improved services. Where possible these will be compared and benchmarked against similar initiatives elsewhere, where this information exists. The budget outline attached in Annex E shows overall planned expenditure by activity per quarter. During the Inception Stage a revised version of this budget plan will be produced, if required. Actual and planned expenditure will be recorded against each budget line in order to monitor progress. This activity is expected to be carried out by Meteo Rwanda’s accountant who will report the results to the project executive and manager, and FONERWA as agreed. A summary of key unit cost which can be used for benchmarking purposes are as follows:

Hire of technical assistance is estimated at RWF 258 million (before tax and expenses) over the project duration. Cost per year is around RWF 98 million and size of beneficiaries (direct and indirect) is about 11 million people.

Cost of goods is about RWF 957 million broken into the following unit costs: o Automatic weather stations (20 units), each unit is US $ 9330; rain gauge (60 units) each unit is

US $ 352 o Weather Kits for schools(100) each unit US$ 240 o Upgrade of hardware and software for DBMS (RWF 58 million= US$ 83,210) with tax o Arc GIS group licence is US$ 60,000 with tax o Forecasting system is RWF 68 million with tax

While the whole nation of 11 million is benefiting. Still cost per unit is RWF 87 (RWF 957 million/ 11 million).

In Rwanda it is estimated that 31 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) comes from rain-fed agriculture. It is now evident that the average annual value of economic losses from hydro meteorological causes especially during rainy seasons runs into hundreds of millions of RWF. Almost 60 per cent of all economic activities are weather and climate sensitive and according to World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), investment in meteorological and hydrological services is known to save lives and yield returns of about 7:1. Benefits to investments ratio in meteorology alone is approximated to be between 5:1 and 10:1 and can be even higher. The Ministry of Agriculture crop assessment report of 2011 indicated that the volume of production of season 2011B compared to 2010B increased by 15% due to the good climatic conditions during the season. All main crops of the season had increased production in season 2011B: for example, maize production increase by 47%; Irish potato by 12%; Cassava by 14%, banana had 13%, rice had 39% and beans had an increase of 11%. The rationale for the project is therefore based around providing better value from weather and climate services to enable decision making that maximises production. There is a growing body of research from Africa and elsewhere that investment in early response (often based on weather and climate information), if well designed, provides significant returns on investment. Research from Kenya and Ethiopia, described in Cabot Venton et al. (2012), has shown that use of weather and climate

3.7 Value for Money (Efficiency): Briefly explain how the provision and operation of project inputs produce the expected outputs What is the Net Present Value (NPV) and benefit cost ratio for this project (Please see VfM guidelines on how to determine these measures. Further guidance from the FONERWA Secretariat is available)?

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information to inform resilience building and prevent or reduce vulnerabilities is far more cost effective than humanitarian response (with very high cost benefit ratios and great potential to improve value for money). There is evidence to demonstrate economic value of relevant CIS, including from Zimbabwe, Mali, and a range of other countries and resilience building benefits Senegal. Work from Bangladesh has demonstrated that better weather forecasting, particularly seasonal forecasting, has been shown to increase crop yields for farming households. However, this value can only be realised if (a) the information is relevant, sufficient and timely (b) the user has the ability to respond to the information and (c) the information leads directly to decisions being made, by interfacing with other systems e.g. agromet online advisory systems. The project will aim to deliver this, drawing on good practice developed elsewhere, as well as putting in place effective systems which have sustainable recurrent costs of production. It will also undertake dedicated economic research will be undertaken into the costs and benefits of improved weather and climate information both by assessing in which sectors of the economy there is most value in improved services (during Inception Stage to inform project design) and through a series of case studies targeting particular aspects. Early warning systems, critical infrastructure and environmental buffers are all interventions designed to prevent the economic (property and livelihood damage and destruction) and social costs (lives injured and lost) associated with extreme weather events. As general literature on prevention suggests, interventions focussed on prevention are generally cost effective relative to interventions that address the economic and social costs after the event. A range of Cost Benefit Ratios (CBRs) for various weather related preventative interventions reviewed in recent years are shown below. Whilst these do not relate directly to Africa it does demonstrate the generally high cost benefit ratios for these types of interventions.

Country/Case study Project / intervention CBR

Bangladesh / Sidr Cyclone

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models 40.85:1

Sri Lanka / Floods Regional flood warning system (poor rate of return due to infrequency of flooding)

0.93:1

Vietnam / Hydro meteorological hazards

Advanced weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model

10.4:1

Thailand / Floods Long-lead weather forecast model 176:1

Indonesia / seasonal forecasting

Seasonal climate forecasting model 6:1

India / Drought Seasonal forecast guided decision making US$1.2 billion (benefit)

Europe and Central Asia / Modernisation

National meteorological services (various) 3.1-5.7:1

In calculating the benefits to society/economy, these studies forecast the avoided costs to a number of key sectors of the economy based on the probability of a range of different extreme weather events occurring. Weather events include: flooding, droughts, heat waves, cyclones, avalanches/mudslides, high winds etc. The sectors most regularly included in such analyses include agriculture, water resource management, transport and communications and energy. The benefits (avoided costs) of preventative interventions are sometimes straightforward to value and model e.g. lost crop yields in the agriculture sector. However, some benefits

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(avoided loss of life) are less straight forward to value. A range of techniques can be applied for measuring such outcomes. While none are perfect, this has not proven sufficient reason to not attempt to value and include such outcomes for the simple reason that not valuing non-monetary outcomes in effect values them at zero, undermining prevention. A very simple cost benefit analysis for this project (included as Annex F) indicates a US$16.6m (NPV) benefit over 3 years for a project investment of US$ 3.0 m. The benefit/cost ratio is based on a conservative benefit period which is the same length as the intervention period (3 years). The calculations were based on a robust methodology from a previous study (World Bank Central Asian Study) adjusted to Rwanda’s level of GDP using a simple ‘benefits transfer’ approach. This has been evaluated against other methodologies and has proven to be one of the more conservative estimates. This gives a CBR of approximately 7, based on the most conservative of estimates. As set out elsewhere, robust economic analysis is a central feature of the project. Q 3.8 Value for Money (Effectiveness):

How does your project demonstrate effectiveness: - How will it show the outputs meet the project objectives? - Which indicators will you measure to demonstrate effectiveness?

The effectiveness of the project is based around the premise that better weather and climate information will be used to inform better decision making at national to household level. Indicators at output level are designed to measure this change at household level, within government and in policies, plans and programmes. This in turn will reduce vulnerability and poverty, and contribute to economic growth. The project design incorporates elements known to support better application of information – by being demand led, engaging users and encouraging two- way communications, developing appropriate communications channels, promoting an understanding of uncertainty and working within existing structures. To draw out the assumptions at this level, a project theory of change will be developed across the Project Team during the Inception Stage and thereafter, evidence based monitoring and evaluation (developed through Output 4) will ascertain whether:

Increased product yields have reduced food insecurity and thus stabilised the macroeconomic factors to match with population trends; and

Informed decisions result from timely application and a good understanding of weather and climate information.………………… ……………………………..The end …………………………………………

43

104

Project Name: Project Number: Implementing Partner: Thematic Financing Window Planning period :

A 6 -month period for scoping and baseline activities DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/15 100

A 24-month period, during which the majority of output activities will be DM/TC 7/1/2015 7/1/2015 400

A 6-month period of project consolidation and final evaluation DM/TC 7/1/2015 12/31/2017 100

7/1/2015 12/31/2017 100

Inception Phase 1.1 Undertake Stakeholder Analysis with

respect to weather and climate services DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100 1.2 Review of weather and climate-

sensitive policies at national and sub- national level DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100 1.3 Support the set up and development of

Sector Stakeholders Group DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015 100

1.4 Identify potential new and revised products DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100 Implementation Phase

1.5 Design and Deliver Training for Meteo Rwanda staff AT/TC 7/1/2015 01/01/2017

300 1.6

Training for Meteo Rwanda station managers AT/TC 01/10/2015 01/01/2017 250

1.7 Training for non-Meteo Rwanda staff AT/TC 01/01/2016 01/04/2017 250 1.8 Deliver stakeholder engagement plan AT/TC 01/04/2016 01/07/2017 250 1.9 Develop Sector Stakeholder Group DM/TC 7/1/2015 01/07/2017 200

Project Completion Phase 1.10 Review/consolidation of materials and

approaches DM/TC 7/1/2017 12/31/2017 100

Key Deliverables - user requirements identification - identification of improved two-way dialogue channels - capability built for effective stakeholder engagement - training and other materials for continued use

Inception Phase 2.1 Scoping of most cost effective

observations upgrading MH/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015 100

2.2 Scoping of climatology and data digitisation MH/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100 2.3 Feasibility study for development of

community managed observations MH/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015 100

Implementation Phase 2.4 Specification, siting and procurement of

observations equipment MH/TC 7/1/2015 01/01/2017 100

2.5 Procure calibration equipment and instrument spare parts MH/TC 7/1/2015 01/01/2017

2.6 Installation of observations equipment MH/TC 01/01/2016 01/10/2016 150 2.7

Production of maintenance manuals etc MH/TC 01/07/2015 01/07/2016 100

2.8 Standard operating procedures for data management MH/TC 01/04/2016 01/10/2016

100 2.9 Improvements to climate data

management MH/TC 01/06/2016 01/04/2017 150

2.1 Digitisation of selected existing archived data MH/TC 01/06/2016 01/04/2017

150 2.11

Creation of baseline climatology MH/TC 01/10/2016 01/04/2017 100

2.12 Pilot implementation of community managed observations network MH/TC 01/01/2016 01/07/2017

300 Project Completion Phase

2.13 Continued maintenance and calibration of equipment MH/TC 7/1/2016 12/31/2017

100 2.14 Development of community managed

observations systems MH/TC 7/1/2016 12/31/2017 100

Key Deliverables -Improved/enhanced observations C60network -Standard operation procedures for data management -Expand/improve baseline climatology

Inception Phase 2.15 Scoping of forecasting techniques and

skills required AT/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015 100

Implementation Phase 2.16 Development of products and standard

operating procedures (all timescales) AT/TC 01/07/2015 01/01/2017 300

2.17 Verification and validation of all new products AT/TC 01/07/2016 01/07/2017

200 2.18 Development and implementation of

training/mentoring programme AT/TC 01/01/2016 01/07/2017 300 2.19

Design and implement a suit of regional 01/04/2015 01/04/2016

ANNEX A: WORK PLAN Strengthening Meteo

Rwanda's Weather and Climate Services to

Support Development Meteo Rwanda, Met

01/01/2015 to 31/12/2017

End date 2017

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Duratio n

(Worki ng

2015

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q1

Inception Phase

ID Outputs/Activities Resource

person responsibl

e Start date

Implementation Phase

Project Completion Phase

Output 1

Q2

2016

Q4 Q4 Q3

Output 2

Work Area (a) - Improvements to Observations Network

Work Area (b) - Production of New Products

44

105

106

2.17 Verification and validation of all new

products AT/TC01/07/2016 01/07/2017

200

2.18Development and implementation of

training/mentoring programmeAT/TC 01/01/2016 01/07/2017 300

2.19

Design and implement a suit of regional

climate modelling experiments AT/TC01/04/2015 01/04/2016

200

2.20 Upgrades to hardware/software as

required AT/TC01/07/2015 01/07/2017

400

2.21 Building offices in districtsDM

01/01/2016 01/01/2017

Project Completion Phase

2.22 Continued production, development and

validation of products

AT 7/1/2017 12/31/2017 100

Key Deliverables

-New severe weather EWS products

-Geographical scaling-up of EWS

-Standard operation procedure for short

range forecast production

-Iproved professional skills and

competencies at Meteo Rwanda

-Standard operation procedure for

monthly and seasonal forecast

production

-Follow-up training to support use of

CPT

-Establishment of NCOF process

Feasibility assessment of potential

future climate information activities-Additional regional climate

simulations

-Production of new and valuable

information on climate timescales

Inception Phase

3.1Assessment of user needs in context of

communications DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015 100

3.2Investigation into reach, capacity and

audiences of local and national media DM/TC1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100

3.3 Redesigning weather and climate

outputs for media use DM/TC1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100

3.4Climate Intermediaries assessment DM/TC 1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100

3.5 Preparation of national

communications strategy DM/TC1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100

Implementation Phase

3.6 Roll out of communications strategyDM/TC

01/07/2015 01/07/2017100

3.7Seasonal Forecast Dissemination AT/TC 01/07/2015 01/07/2017 100

3.8 Preparation and implementation of

district communications plans DM/TC01/10/2015 01/04/2016

100

3.9 Development of a Service Level

Agreement (or similar) between Meteo

Rwanda and customers DM/TC

01/01/2016 01/07/2016

50

3.10 Design and delivery of 'intermediary'

training DM/TC01/01/2016 01/10/2016

150

01/10/2016 01/07/2017

Project Completion Phase

3.11 Monitoring of access to weather and

climate information through various

channels DM

7/1/2017 12/31/2017

100

Key Deliverables

-Communications strategy for weather

and climate information

-Redesigned Meteo Rwanda outputs to

address user needs for a range of

communications channels

-Development of most effective

communications channels

-District based communication plans

developed and operational

Inception Phase

4.1

Undertake economic analysis on

benefits of improved weather and

climate services DM/TC

1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100

4.2 Development of M&E framework,

including baselines and performance

indicators DM/TC

1/1/2015 01/07/2015

100

Implementation Phase and Completion

4.3 Produce and disseminate project

materials DM/TC01/07/2015 01/07/2015

400

General

4.4 General Support to Project management

and Technical Assistance

DM/TC 7/1/2015 12/31/2017 100

Key Deliverables

-Development of M&E framework, and

implementation in a participatory

nature

-Research findings on economic value of

weather and climate information

-Development of awareness-raising

programme, implementation of cross-

learning events at all levels

Output 3

Output 4

45

Annex B: Stakeholder Workshop Minutes 107

Review of Stakeholders Meeting 108

A meeting of key stakeholders of Rwanda Meteorological Agency was held on 27th March 2014 at the 109

Ministry of Infrastructure conference Room from 9.00 am to 2.00 pm. These minutes were recorded by 110

Didace Musoni (Meteo Rwanda). 111

It brought together stakeholders representing key players namely: Ministry in charge of Disaster Risk 112

Reduction; Red Cross; Ministry of Finance and Planning; Rwanda Natural Resources Authority; Rwanda 113

Environmental Management Authority; Ministry of Defence; Ministry of Local Government; Rwanda 114

Civil Aviation Authority; Kigali Institute of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Agriculture among 115

others. 116

Purpose of the meeting 117

Meteo Rwanda called the meeting to present to them components of the proposed project to 118

FONERWA for funding. Namely, it illustrated how the project would aim to improve service delivery 119

capability of Meteo Rwanda and empower users to assimilate weather and climate services for the 120

purpose climate resilience. 121

During the meeting, stakeholders were briefed on the envisaged outcomes from the project 122

implementation, its activities, outcomes and deliverables. It was explained to each participant how the 123

project’s deliverables were relevant to their specific sector. They were then asked to explore what 124

further inputs that could be incorporated into the project plan to ensure maximum benefit from this 125

project for their area. 126

Proceedings of the meeting 127

1. The Director General of Meteo Rwanda welcomed the participants to the meeting, thanked 128

everyone for having responded to our invitation at such short notice, he requested them to 129

participate with open mind and ensure that the final project document reflects interests of 130

individual stakeholder in a more articulated manner. 131

2. He assured participants of Meteo Rwanda’s continued commitment to serving their respective 132

needs. He went onto describe how demand – led weather and climate information will form the 133

focus of Meteo Rwanda’s operations. 134

3. The chief FONERWA coordinator exhorted the participants to critically explore the opportunities 135

presented in the document, comment on different expected outputs, and examine their 136

relevance to each specific sector. Where necessary, they were encouraged to add any benefiting 137

proposal to the document so that ultimately every stakeholder’s specific interests were reflected 138

in the project. 139

4. Participants were then taken through the project’s content by the project coordinator. In specific 140

terms, the project has four outputs and each has a summary of actionable points that can make 141

it realize intended deliverables. Participants were told how each output would contribute 142

towards specific or common interests of stakeholders and where it does not cover this 143

adequately, participants were asked to propose how the project can make interventions so that 144

such outputs would become relevant to target stakeholders, without losing sight of FONERWA’S 145

overall objectives. From the meeting, the following were requested by stakeholders: 146

46

Output 1: 147

Ministry of Agriculture: The project should empower Meteo Rwanda to give deterministic forecast on 148

planting dates, onset, distribution and cessation of rainfall and improve on verification of such forecasts. 149

National University of Rwanda: Solar irradiance measurements should be increased accessed; their 150

relationships with weather explored to improve forecasted information. However, all Automatic 151

weather stations are equipped with radiation sensors, the variation in time and space we do not know 152

whether poses an issue to warrant more observation sites particularly on surface of Rwanda. 153

MINECOFIN: They lack capacity to relate poor economic performance to climate change; and 154

mainstreaming of climate information to influence decision making is still a challenge. Efforts to 155

demonstrate how to take informed decisions into planning should be accommodated within the project. 156

Ministry of defense: variability in time and space of special weather elements can always be requested 157

by field officers for tactical operations. Some useful information is not known and even how to take 158

advantage of prevailing weather and climate conditions is challenging. Skills, knowledge and techniques 159

of forecasting of short spells of weather conditions information should be demonstrated in the project. 160

REMA: climate change modeling and its scalability to local situations should be reflected in the project; 161

also of importance is improved capacity of weather and climate modelers. The project must promote 162

short and medium term training of weather and climate modelers. The model domain should be now to 163

a level of 2 km resolution. 164

165

Output 2: 166

MINAGRI: capacity building should be extended to both producers and users of climate information. 167

RED CROSS: Common Alert protocol should be extended to all players in order to raise the level of 168

effectiveness and efficiency of disaster managers and feedback platforms. 169

170

Output 3: 171

Local Government: communication is effective when it involves sub-district and district communication 172

infrastructure, Use of SMS to target wide audience should be demonstrated in the project. 173

MIDIMAR: monitoring of extreme weather events with enough lead-time should be improved. Thus the 174

project should address this concern. 175

MIDMAR: research into causes of these severe weather events should be carried, and risk maps with 176

vulnerability levels documented. 177

178

179

47

180

ANNEX C: PROJECT LOGFRAME 181

182

PROJECT NAME

Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s weather and Climate Services to support Development

Version of October 2014

IMPACT Impact Indicator 1 Baseline (July2014)

Milestone 1 (2015/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17) Target (17/18)

Renewable energy and other environmentally sustainable, low carbon and climate resilient technologies adapted, developed and /or improved for use in Rwanda, as a result of the fund.

Number of monitoring and MIS systems with sufficient environmental and climate change data to inform policy decisions

Planned

Achieved

Source(s)

Methodology to be developed by FONERWA

Impact Indicator 2 Baseline (July2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17) Target (17/18)

Number of Rwandans a)citizens,

b) women

c) and girls

d) infrastructure

have built resilience to climate change impacts

Planned

Achieved

Source(s)

MIDIMAR/FONERWA/Meteo Rwanda reports showing trends of loss and damage due to extreme weather and climate impacts

OUTCOME Outcome Indicator 1 Baseline (Jul2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Assumptions

An improved, demand-led, weather and climate information system informs decisions of policy

Number of households using weather and climate information in decision making related to livelihood activities

Planned Baseline to be determined through a scoping study of first 6 months

0.5 million 0.75 million 1 million Better use of weather and climate information by policy makers, planners and the public result in

Achieved

48

makers, planners and the public.

decision making that supports poverty reduction and wealth creation.

Source(s)

Specific research/evaluation on use of improved information in decision making as part of the overall project evaluation framework.

Outcome Indicator 2 Baseline (Jul2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Political will, leadership and momentum in the Government of Rwanda (GoR) to drive forward climate-focussed agenda

Number of government departments, research institutions, NGOs, farmers, cooperatives, rural women organizations.., with regular use of weather and climate information increased

Planned 0 30 90 150

Achieved

Source(s)

Meteo Rwanda records. Project monitoring and reporting. Specific research/evaluation

This indicator will be further informed by a stakeholder analysis that will be undertaken during the inception stage

Outcome indicator 3 Baseline (Jul 2014)

Milestone 1

(15/16)

Milestone 2

(16/17)

Target (17/18)

Number of policies, plans and programmes with weather and climate information mainstreamed by

a) Ministries

b) Districts

c) Sectors.

Planned (a) 6

(b) 30

(c) 30

10

30

65

18

30

280

19

30

456

Decision makers recognise the value of improved weather and climate information in development planning and are

Achieved

49

able to quantify it.

Sources Reports sourced from Imihigo of institutions, Meteo Rwanda assessment reports, project monitoring and reporting.

Outcome indicator 4 Baseline( Jul2014)

Milestone 1(15/16)

Milestone 2(16/17)

Target(17/18)

All operational weather stations are properly maintained and monitored.

And information Meteo Rwanda is able to provide is reliable and relevant.

Percentage of forecasts meeting specified levels of accuracy and reliability

planned To be assessed

50% 60% 70%

Achieved

Source(s)

Meteo Rwanda records

INPUTS (FRW and HR)

FONERWA Meteo Rwanda

Other (£) Total (RFW)

tbc

tbc tbc tbc tbc tbc

OUTPUT 1 Output Indicator 1.1

Baseline (July2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Assumptions

Processes and techniques for the demand-led weather and climate

Number of new or revised weather and climate products identified

Planned 4 10 15 20 Sufficient priority and resources afforded to Meteo Rwanda staff to engage in communication activities.

Achieved

Source(s) Project reports and engagement workshops. Reports by Government Ministries across sectors and levels of

50

information at national levels all developed

administration.

Output Indicator 1.2

Baseline (Jul2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Continued two-way dialogue between Meteo Rwanda staff, communication intermediaries and local communities.

Number of people engaged/involved in demand for Meteorological Information (M.I)

Planned 190 300 500 1000

Achieved

Source(s) Project and training reports.

Specific study on the effectiveness of training.

Output Indicator 1.3 Baseline (14/15)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17

Target (17/18)

Efficient and cost effective management system that is robust, user friendly and integrates different sourced information.

Meteo information management system established.

Planned 2 4 5 8

Achieved

Source(s) Assessment of data and Information management systems at Meteo Rwanda operationalized as a result of the project

IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) 25 RISK RATING (H, M, L) M

183

OUTPUT 2

Output Indicator 2.1 Baseline (Jul14)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Assumptions

Improved capacity at Meteo Rwanda to design, produce and verify weather and climate information and products, based on sound science

Number of user- relevant forecast products produced.

Planned 4 6 8 10 Meteo Rwanda is able to retain qualified, motivated and experienced staff to ensure retention of quality of personnel developed by project

Achieved

Source(s) Standard operating procedure for each product.

The milestones will be revised based on findings from Output 1 and assessment of the costs and value for money of each potential product

Output Indicator 2.2 Baseline Milestone Milestone Target That that

51

(14/15) 1 (15/16) 2 (16/17) (17/18) the information Meteo Rwanda is able to provide is reliable and relevant.

Number of meteo staff trained (men and women) trained

Planned 10 15 20 30

Achieved

Source(s) Meteo training records, Assessment of continuing profession development logs and personal development plans

Output Indicator 2.3 Baseline (Jul14)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Care, maintenance and security of infrastructure is supported by all including stakeholders for whom this output serves

Number of additional operational weather stations/rain gauges/office within observational network.

a) AWS

b) AWR/gauges

c) Offices

d) School weather kits

Planned a)41

b) 100,

c) 1

d) 0

51

135

1

100

51

135

1

100

51

135

1

100

Achieved

Source(s) Meteo Rwanda records, procurement reports

IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) 25 RISK RATING (H, M, L) M

OUTPUT 3 Output Indicator 3.1 Baseline (Jul 2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Assumptions

Increased access to weather and climate information to users through a range of communication channels.

Number of households able to access weather and climate information

Planned

to be assessed

0.25 million

0.5 million 1m households

Development of sustainable communication channels at district and sub-district level, requiring continued support from Meteo Rwanda staff.

Achieved

Source(s)

Meteo Rwanda records. Project reporting through socio-economic and other survey methods

Baseline will be estimated from the channels providing weather and climate information across the country, and will be included as part of the Inception Phase analysis (mapping channels and existing access).

Output Indicator 3.2 Baseline (Jul 2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Development of county

52

Number of service level agreements (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda, government departments and other organisations in place.

Planned

0 5 7 10 based communication plans and implementation are supported by District administrations

Achieved

Source(s)

Meteo Rwanda records. Project reporting.

Milestones will be further informed by further analysis during the Inception Stage.

IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) 25 RISK RATING M

184

OUTPUT 4 Output Indicator 3.3 Baseline (Jul 2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Assumptions

Project management and coordination strengthened

Percentage of stakeholders targeted by the project (policy makers, planners, women and men across key livelihood and social groups etc) reporting an increased awareness of weather and climate information

Planned 0 50% 75% Good understanding and awareness of weather and climate information by policy and decision makers in GoR.

Achieved

Source(s) Specific surveys of user views, uptake and use of improved weather and climate information services.

Milestones will be further informed by further analysis during the Inception Stage.

Output Indicator 3.4 Baseline (Jul 2014)

Milestone 1 (15/16)

Milestone 2 (16/17)

Target (17/18)

Initiative able to demonstrate the economic benefits of weather and climate information across timescales and sectors.

Improved capacity for service delivery within Meteo Rwanda as measured by demonstrable progress against the WMO Service Delivery Framework

Planned to be undertaken

tbc tbc tbc

Achieved

Source(s) Milestones will be further informed by further analysis during the Inception Stage but are likely to be based on an average measure of progress across all the parameters in the WMO framework.

Output Indicator 3.5 Baseline Milestone Milestone Target Effective

53

(Jul 2014) 1 (15/16) 2 (16/17) (17/18) communication strategy through project material and other outreach programmes produced by the project

Number of project materials (briefing notes, publications, learning materials etc) produced and disseminated

Planned 0 10 20 30

Achieved

Source(s) Project outputs and records. An initial list of specific research areas and project materials will be produced at Inception Stage and updated as the project progresses.

The project will undertake specific research into the economic value of improved information, and how this may influence policy, planning and investment decisions or be used as an influencing tool.

IMPACT WEIGHTING (%) 25 RISK RATING M

185 186

187

188

189

190

191

192

193

194

195

196

197

198

199

200

54

Annex D-Monitoring and Evaluation

Expected results (outcomes and outputs)

Indicators(with baseline and indicative targets) and other key area to monitor

M& E events with data collection methods

Time or Schedule and frequency

Responsibilities

Means of Verification Data source and type

Resources

Risks

Outcome

An improved, demand-led, weather and climate information system informs decisions of policy makers, planners and the public.

Number of households using weather and climate information in decision making related to livelihood activities. Baseline: To be determined by scope study in 6 months

Field visits to economic sectors, vulnerable communities for trending on loss and damages resulting from weather and climate extremes Methods of collection Surveys, research interview, reports of : Meteorwanda and fonerwa

6 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Contingent valuation research/evaluation on use of improved information in decision making as part of the overall project evaluation framework

Project budget

Use of better weather and climate information results in decision making that supports poverty reduction and wealth creation

Number of government departments, research institutions, NGOs..., with regular use of M.I increased Baseline:0

Check on ” Imihigo” performance contracts of respective institutions. Methods Action plans and performance contracts

6 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Meteo Rwanda records. Project monitoring and reporting. Specific research/evaluation

This indicator will be further informed by a stakeholder analysis that will be undertaken during the inception stage.

Project budget

Political will, leadership and momentum in the Government of Rwanda (GoR) to drive forward climate-focussed agenda.

Number of policies, plans and programmes with M.I mainstreamed by: a)ministries: baseline 6 b) districts: baseline:30 c) sectors: baseline 30

Check in Imihigo of ministries, districts and sectors for mainstreamed M.I Methods of collection Action plans and Imihigo

6 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Reports sourced from Imihigo of institutions, Meteo Rwanda assessment reports,

Project budget

Decision makers recognize the value of improved weather and climate information in development planning and are able to quantify it.

Output 1 Processes and techniques for the demand –led weather and climate information at national levels all developed

Number of new or revised weather and climate products identified Baseline: 4

Project progress reports Meteo Rwanda Methods of collection Conference/workshop reports

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Project reports and engagement workshops. Reports by Government Ministries across sectors and levels of administration.

Project budget

Sufficient priority and resources afforded to Meteo Rwanda staff to engage in communication activities.

Number of people (women &men) in demand for M.I Baseline:190

Visit to Meteo Rwanda databank and forecast records, Agro meteorology, research institutions, project management center Methods of collection

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Project and training reports.

Specific study on the effectiveness of training.

Project budget

. Continued two-way dialogue between Meteo Rwanda staff, communication intermediarie

55

Records from logbooks, MoUs with stakeholder,

s and local communities.

New Meteo information management system established Baseline:2

Meteo Rwanda IT section, data and forecasting sections. project management center Methods Physical checks on new and MIS in operation

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Assessment of data and Information management systems at Meteo Rwanda operationalized as a result of the project

Project budget

Efficient and cost effective management system that is robust, user friendly and integrates different sourced information.

Output 2 Improved capacity at Meteo Rwanda to design, produce and verify weather and climate information and products ,based on sound science

Number of user relevant forecast product produced Baseline:4

Visit to Meteo Rwanda forecasting division and project management center Methods of collection number and type of forecast reports

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Standard operating procedure for each product.

The milestones will be revised based on findings from Output 1 and assessment of the costs and value for money of each potential product

Project budget

Meteo Rwanda is able to retain qualified, motivated and experienced staff to ensure retention of quality of personnel developed by project

Number of meteo staff (men & women) trained Baseline: Men=9 Women=1

Visit meteo Rwanda HR and project management center Methods of collection training records

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Meteo training records, Assessment of continuing profession development logs and personal development plans

Project budget

That that the information Meteo Rwanda is able to provide is reliable and relevant.

Number of additional operational weather stations/raingauges/offices/school weather kits Baseline: AWS=41, r/g=100, offices=1, weather kits=0

Visit to Meteo Rwanda procurement section and division of data observation, quality control and processing Field visits to the sites project management center Methods of collection Procurement records, installation records, physical checks on buldings

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Meteo Rwanda records, project procurement and installation reports.

Project budget

Care, maintenance and security of infrastructure is supported by all including stakeholders for whom this output serves

Output 3 Increased access to weather and climate information to users through a range of communicatio

Number of households able to access weather and climate information Baseline: to be assessed

Meteo Rwanda and project management center Methods of collection Communication channels networked, Records from public weather service, IT

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Meteo Rwanda records, survey using local meteo focal points

Baseline will be estimated from the channels providing weather and climate information

Project budget

Development of sustainable communication channels at district and sector level, requiring continued support from Meteo

56

n channels across the country, and will be included as part of the Inception Phase analysis (mapping channels and existing access).

Rwanda staff.

Number of service agreements (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda and different end-users of M.I Baseline:1

Visit to Meteo Rwanda different divisions and project management center Methods of collection Records of Service level agreements, MoUs records

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Meteo Rwanda records. Project reporting.

Milestones will be further informed by further analysis during the Inception Stage.

Project budget

Cost of sustaining service level agreements receive continued support and funding.

Number of project materials(briefing notes, publications, learning materials etc.,) produced and disseminated Baseline:0

Project management center Methods of collection Surveys, interviews, research results, educational materials publications

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Project outputs and records. An initial list of specific research areas and project materials will be produced at Inception Stage and updated as the project progresses.

The project will undertake specific research into the economic value of improved information, and how this may influence policy, planning and investment decisions or be used as an influencing tool

Project budget

Initiative able to demonstrate the economic benefits of weather and climate information across timescales and sectors

Output: Project management and coordination

Percentage of stakeholders targeted by the project (policy makers, planners, women and men across key livelihood and social groups etc) reporting an increased awareness of weather and climate information

Field visits to focus groups /meteo Rwanda/national statistics institute Method of collection Survey research, questionnaires

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Specific surveys of user views, uptake and use of improved weather and climate information services.

Project budget

Good understanding and awareness of weather and climate information by policy and decision makers in GoR

Improved capacity for service delivery within Meteo Rwanda as measured by demonstrable progress against the WMO Service Delivery Framework

Visits to meteo Rwanda records , review of WMO manuals on programmes for service delivery Methods of collection Assessment of QMS, ISO certificated SOPs records of Meteo Rwanda

3 monthly, midterm, end of project review

Project team Milestones will be further informed by further analysis during the Inception Stage.

Project budget

Initiative able to demonstrate the economic benefits of weather and climate information across timescales and sectors.

Number of project materials (briefing notes, publications, learning materials etc) produced and disseminated

Visit to Meteo Rwanda and field offices (public service section) and

3 monthly, midterm, end of

Project team Project outputs and records. An initial list of

Project budget

Appropriate research methodology will be

57

201 from project management centre reports Methods of collection Project reports, project publications,

project review

specific research areas and project materials will be produced at Inception Stage and updated as the project progresses.

The project will undertake specific research into the economic value of improved information, and how this may influence policy and planning and investment decisions or be used as influencing tool

conducted to produce desired results and Generic guidance manuals for users weather and climate information will be produced on schedule

58

ANNEX E: BUDGET FOR PROJECT SUPPORTED BY FONERWA 202

203 204 205

Year 1

Project Name:

Strengthening Meteo Rwanda's Weather and Climate Services to Support Development

Project Number:

Implementing organisation: Meteo Rwanda, Met Office Notes:

[1]This sheet should be read in conjunction with the summary sheet and summary of sub consultant budgets, including the associated notes

FONERWA Thematic Financing Window:

Budget for the period:

01/07/2014 to 30/06/2017

[2] Detailed breakdowns of technical assistance inputs are included in separate sheets - as summary is provided under each activity

Year 1 (Q1) Year 1 (Q2) Year 1(Q3) Year 1(Q4) TOTAL (year)

Unit cost

Quantity Budget Unit cost

Quantity Budget Unit cost

Quantity Budget Unit cost

Quantity Budget

Notes: 1

Output Activity

Description/Unit

Output 1:

Processes and techniques for the identification of demand led weather and climate information developed and

59

implemented

Activity 1.1 Undertake Stakeholder Analysis with respect to weather and climate services

In house Workshops (Kigali) No 200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

Sector Workshops (Kigali) No 260,000

1

260,000

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

Engagement Meetings (each District) No

500,000

15

7,500,000

500,000

15

7,500,000

500,000

-

500,000

-

15,000,000

Field Survey (user needs) No 1,000,000

-

-

1,000,000

10

10,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

10,000,000

Transport Costs Day 78,000

25

1,950,000

78,000

25

1,950,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

3,900,000

Mission allowances (Meteo staff) Nights

30,000

50

1,500,000

30,000

50

1,500,000

30,000

-

30,000

-

3,000,000

Document Preparation and Printing No

15,000

50

750,000

15,000

100

1,500,000

15,000

-

15,000

-

2,250,000

Technical assistance to develop the participatory approached needed to undertake adequate stakeholder analysis

RWF 26,177,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

12,160,000

22,450,000

-

-

34,610,000

Activity 1.2 Review of weather and climate-sensitive policies at national and sub-national level

Policy Seminars (Kigali) (estimated lump sum per seminar) No

500,000

1

500,000

500,000

1

500,000

500,000

-

500,000

-

1,000,000

Assessment of national policies and plans

included in 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Assessment of district policies and plans

included in 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Document Preparation and Printing No

15,000

50

750,000

15,000

50

750,000

15,000

-

15,000

-

1,500,000

Sub-total 1,250,000

1,250,000

-

-

2,500,000

Activity 1.3 Support the set up and development of Sector Stakeholders Group

60

Preparatory workshop for sector stakeholders group (estimate lump sum cost). No

4,960,000

1

4,960,000

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

Sub-total 4,960,000

-

-

4,960,000

4,960,000

Activity 1.4 Identify potential new and revised products

In house seminar to discuss and scope out new product suite (lump sum for seminar) No

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

600,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals to stakeholders (estimated lump sum) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

1

3,500,000

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

Sub-total -

200,000

3,700,000

200,000

4,100,000

Activity 1.5 - Design and Deliver Training for Meteo Rwanda staff - participatory approaches

Sector Workshops (Kigali) No 260,000

1

260,000

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

Technical support to provide training to staff on stakeholder engagement and participatory approaches

RWF 3,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 260,000

-

-

-

260,000

Activity 1.6 Training for Meteo Rwanda station managers (13) to improve outreach

In house seminar to discuss and scope new station manager roles and responsibilities and scope of training programme No

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

600,000

Delivery of training programme (estimated lump sum for delivery to all 13 station managers)

No 15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

1

15,000,000

15,000,000

Delivery of refresher training programme (estimated lump sum for delivery to all 13 station managers)

No 7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

61

Technical Assistance for the development of station managers training programme

RWF 3,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

200,000

200,000

15,200,000

15,600,000

Activity 1.7 Training for non-Meteo Rwanda staff around weather and climate issues (agronomists, disaster monitors)

Costs included in intermediary training, activity 3.10

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

Activity 1.8 Deliver stakeholder engagement plan

Costs included in other activities in Outputs 2 and 3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

Activity 1.9 Develop Sector Stakeholder Group

Included in Activity 1.3 -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

Output 1 Totals 18,630,000

24,100,000

3,900,000

15,400,000

62,030,000

Output 2:

Improved Capacity at Meteo Rwanda to design, produce and verify weather and climate information and products, based on sound science

Work Area (a) - Improvements to Observations Network

Activity 2.1 Scoping of most cost effective observations upgrading (informed by products identified in Output 1)

Inspection and inventory of existing network in all Districts - mission allowance (2 people for 2 days in 27 Districts) days

30,000

54

1,620,000

30,000

54

1,620,000

30,000

-

30,000

-

3,240,000

Transport - vehicle hire days 78,000

27

2,106,000

78,000

27

2,106,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

4,212,000

Instrument identification tagging item

600

1,400

840,000

1,400

1,500

2,100,000

600

-

600

-

2,940,000

62

Produce forward plan for observations network, including capital investments, operations and maintenance for effective climate monitoring and forecast production over Rwanda

Lump Sum

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

Technical Assistance to support the activites above

RWF 3,692,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 4,566,000

6,826,000

-

-

11,392,000

Activity 2.2 Scoping of climatology and data digitisation of existing data required

Reorganization of data and records at source stations -allow 5 days at each station (mission allowance for 65 days) days

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

65

1,950,000

30,000

65

1,950,000

3,900,000

Transport to principal stations - vehicle hire (allow 5 days for each station) days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

33

2,574,000

78,000

32

2,496,000

5,070,000

Assessment of direct and indirect methods of assembling and studying climate records to enable product development days

130,000

-

130,000

-

130,000

2

260,000

130,000

3

390,000

650,000

Archive and storage materials lump sum 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

Sub-total -

-

7,284,000

4,836,000

12,120,000

Activity 2.3 Feasibility Study for development of community managed observations

Make assessment of current status of community managed observations at sample stations (mission allowance)

included in 2.2 above

30,000

-

30,000

10

300,000

30,000

-

30,000

-

300,000

Hold consultative meeting of stakeholders to review improvements to respective managed observations No

452,000

-

452,000

-

452,000

1

452,000

452,000

-

452,000

Sub-total -

300,000

452,000

-

752,000

Activity 2.4 Specification and procurement of

63

observations equipment

Procure parts of, relocate and install solar power systems at 5 stations offices and at HQ No

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Automatic Weather Station No 15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

Telemetry rain gauges No 1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

-

Weather Kits for Schools No 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.5 Procure calibration equipment and instruments spare parts

Procurement of calibration equipment and provision of training

Lump Sum

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

Procurement of observations equipment spare parts

Lump Sum

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

Training to station managers on operation and maintenance

Per Station

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.6 Installation of observations equipment, set up communications and integration with climate database

Installation of stations and replacement of spare parts(mission allowances) day

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

Installation of stations and replacement of spare parts(transport) day

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Ground perpetration and civil works Lump sum

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

-

Data Communication charges Year 4,000,000

-

4,000,000

1

4,000,000

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

Technical assistance (data and communications) - see separate sheet for breakdown

RWF 1,664,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

4,000,000

-

-

4,000,000

64

Activity 2.7 Production of Observations Maintenance Manuals and related documents to support operation, management and security of the observations network

Develop maintenance manuals for all types of instruments in English, French and Kinyarwanda Lump

Sum 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Production of Manuals No 10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.8: Standard Operating procedures for Data Management (both current and archived)

In house workshop Lump Sum

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

Develop SOPs and Operating Procedures in English, French and Kinyarwanda

Lump Sum

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

1

7,500,000

7,500,000

Publication of SOPs for data management, data collection, data transmission and data treatment no

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

Technical assistance (SOPs and Data Manuals)

RWF 1,040,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

12,500,000

12,500,000

Activity 2.9: Improvements to climate data management system as identified

Database management system upgrade

Lump Sum

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to provide training for improved data management and software upgrade

RWF 1,456,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.10: Digitisation of selected existing archived data

65

Develop data digitisation strategy and implementation plan included

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

In house Workshops (Kigali) Lump Sum

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

Procure third party to undertake digitisation of selected station records

Lump Sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

-

Materials, documentation and Printing

Lump Sum

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

Technical assistance (digitisation strategy)

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 200,000

-

-

-

200,000

Activity 2.11: Creation of baseline climatology

In house Workshops (Kigali) Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

User Workshop to present findings (Kigali) No

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

-

Dissemination materials No 5,000

-

5,000

-

5,000

-

5,000

-

-

Technical assistance (creation of baseline climatology)

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.12: Development and pilot implementation of community managed observations network

Workshop to develop strategy for community managed observations No

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

Procure mobile telephones No 30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

Software No 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Develop training programme for community managed observations Lump

Sum 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Train observers (1 person for 25 days, travel)

Days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

66

Train observers (1 person for 25 days, mission allowances)

Days 37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

Train observers (travel and allowance for volunteer observers) No

50,000

-

50,000

-

50,000

-

50,000

-

-

Running Costs Year 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.13 Continued maintenance and calibration observations equipment

Costs included elsewhere -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.14 Further development of the community managed observations network

Costs included elsewhere -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Work Area (b) - Production of New Products

Activity 2.15 Scoping of forecasting techniques and skills required and development of training and mentoring plan

In house workshops (Kigali) No 200,000

-

200,000

2

400,000

200,000

2

400,000

200,000

-

800,000

Technical Assistance to develop forward plan for development of forecasting techniques at all timescales - from nowcasting to seasonal and climate change scenarios dependent on products identified in Output 1

RWF 6,572,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

400,000

400,000

-

800,000

Activity 2.16 Development of products and standard operating procedures (all timescales)

In house workshop Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

67

Undertake product development cycle (testing and development) [note costs will vary dependent on types of products identified]

Lump Sum per product

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

5

25,000,000

5,000,000

5

25,000,000

50,000,000

Develop SOPs and Operating Procedures for new products

Lump Sum

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

5

5,000,000

1,000,000

5

5,000,000

10,000,000

Production of publications/manuals no

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

50

500,000

1,000,000

Technical Assistance in product development and development of Standard Operating Procedures

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.17 Verification and validation of all new products (all timescales)

In house workshop Lump Sum

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

1

250,000

250,000

Produce case studies No 2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to develop verification and validation techniques and undertake joint case study analysis

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

250,000

250,000

Activity 2.18 Development and implementation of training and mentoring programme for Meteo Rwanda staff (all timescales)

In house workshop Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Allowance for study visit (UK) No 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

Allowance for study visit (regional) No

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

-

Allowances for other training and self learning programmes

Lump Sum

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

68

Technical support to develop overall training and mentoring programme to ensure delivery of new products [includes all categories below]

RWF 38,719,200

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (nowcasting/medium term forecasting, including from radar, NWP etc)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (seasonal)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (long term forecasting)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (long term)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (climate data and management)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (IT skills, programming etc)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

200,000

-

200,000

400,000

Activity 2.19 Design and implement a suite of regional climate modelling experiments

In house workshop Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Develop and disseminate climate scenarios for Rwanda lump sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

-

Technical support to design climate modelling experiments [included in 2.18 above]

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

200,000

-

200,000

400,000

Activity 2.20 Upgrades to hardware/software as required for effective production of new products

69

Upgrade of forecasting equipment

Lump Sum

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

-

Software upgrades (GIS etc) Lump Sum

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.21 Building 4 Meteo Office in Districts

Architecture design and supervision No

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

-

Land deeds No

2,000,000 -

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Construction No

35,000,000 -

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Output 2 Totals 4,766,000

11,926,000

8,136,000

17,986,000

42,814,000

Output 3:

Increased access to weather and climate information to users through a range of communication channels

Activity 3.1 Assessment of user needs in context of communications

Costs deemed to be included in Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.2 Investigation into reach, capacity and audiences of local and national media (based on media workshop) and other communications channels (SMS, social media etc)

In house seminar to discuss communication and media options, existing initiatives and forward plans No

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

Seminar to identify specific media output needs relevant to weather and climate (estimated lump sum for all conference costs) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

1

3,500,000

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals (estimated lump sum for all conference costs) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

1

3,500,000

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

70

Technical assistance to assess media and communication channels, reach, audience share, audience habits etc and make recommendations for cost effective use of different communication channels

RWF 13,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 200,000

3,500,000

3,500,000

-

7,200,000

Activity 3.3 Redesigning weather and climate outputs for media use including media and other related training

Technical assistance to support Meteo Rwanda in redesign of products for media use (training on presentation, script writing etc) days

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Training Seminar (estimate lump sum costs per seminar) No

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

1

200,000

800,000

Software and hardware for production for improved presentation and delivery of weather and climate products (estimated lump sum)

Lump Sum

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

1

7,500,000

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

Sub-total 200,000

200,000

7,700,000

200,000

8,300,000

Activity 3.4 Climate Intermediaries assessment

National workshop to develop methodologies to communicate climate services at scale through intermediaries for farmer communities and others in Rwanda -to avoid overlaps, conflict of interest and contradictions in statements of authority (estimated lump sum for workshop) No

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

1

9,630,000

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

Set up of working committee and feedback mechanisms for climate intermediates (estimated lump sum for activity) No

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

71

Engagement Meetings to identify intermediary channels (each District)

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Fuel and Transport Costs

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)*

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

9,830,000

-

-

9,830,000

Activity 3.5 Preparation of National Communications Strategy for Weather and Climate Services

In house seminar to discuss and scope out communications strategy (lump sum for seminar) No

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals to stakeholders (estimated lump sum) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

1

3,500,000

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

Fuel and Transport Costs days 78,000

5

390,000

78,000

5

390,000

78,000

5

390,000

78,000

-

1,170,000

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* days

37,000

5

185,000

37,000

5

185,000

37,000

5

185,000

37,000

-

555,000

Technical assistance to support Meteo Rwanda develop national strategic plan for communication of weather and climate services (do analysis, segment, establish communication policy and rules, identify gaps and poor links, formulate strategy and undertake planning)

RWF 12,620,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 575,000

775,000

4,075,000

200,000

5,625,000

Activity 3.6 Roll out of communications strategy

72

Awareness raising of new strategy within Meteo Rwanda staff - workshops/seminars in Kigali and in the Districts. Estimated lump sum

No 5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

1

5,700,000

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

Improved communications with out of Kigali staff (Skype/web portal etc)

Lump Sum

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Upgrade of website Lump

Sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000 -

-

Payments to media outlets

Month 900,000

-

900,000

-

900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

5,400,000

Setup SMS portal

Month 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

SMS dissemination

Month 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

6,000,000

Develop and publish brochures, education materials to demonstrate the value and application of weather and climate information and knowledge No

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

500

1,000,000

2,000

500

1,000,000

2,000,000

Development and delivery of a training programme for policy makers to raise awareness of weather and climate issues (estimated lump sum) No

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to support the roll out of the communications strategy as required

RWF 12,620,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

13,400,000

6,700,000

20,100,000

Activity 3.7 Seasonal Forecast Dissemination (NCOF, GHACOF consultative group, and provincial dissemination)

National Climate Outlook Forum (Kigali) twice per year (venue and subsistence)

Lump Sum

6,500,000

1

6,500,000

6,500,000

-

6,500,000

1

6,500,000

6,500,000

-

13,000,000

Provincial meetings to disseminate seasonal forecast No

500,000

5

2,500,000

500,000

-

-

500,000

5

2,500,000

500,000

-

5,000,000

Transport (days) days 78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

1,560,000

73

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* Nights

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

740,000

Press Conference for Seasonal Forecast

Lump Sum

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

2,000,000

Document Preparation and Printing No

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

1,000,000

Attendance at GHACOF (flights and subsistence for 1 person at each meeting No

1,200,000

1

1,200,000

1,200,000

-

1,200,000

1

1,200,000

1,200,000

-

2,400,000

Sub-total

12,850,000

-

12,850,000 -

25,700,000

Activity 3.8 Preparation and implementation of district communications plans

Direct support to District administrations to developed and implements weather and climate communication plans to enable between use and uptake of information at all levels

No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

Engagement Meetings (each District) No

400,000

15

6,000,000

400,000

15

6,000,000

400,000

-

400,000

-

12,000,000

Sub-total 6,000,000

6,000,000

-

-

12,000,000

Activity 3.9 Development of a Service Level Agreement (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda and customers

Costs included elsewhere -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.10 Design and delivery of 'intermediary' training

Roll out of intermediary training in 10 districts (estimated total cost per District) District

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

-

Seasonal feedback meeting with intermediaries and refresher training (estimated annual cost per district) District

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to support the development of a training programme for climate intermediaries

RWF 6,905,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

74

Activity 3.11 Monitoring of access to weather and climate information through various channels - review and update of communications channels

Annual review workshop and report, update of communications strategy (estimated lump sum cost) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

Sub-total -

-

-

2,500,000

2,500,000

Output 3 Totals 19,825,000

20,305,000

41,525,000

9,600,000

91,255,000

Output 4:

Project Management and Coordination Strengthened

Activity 4.1 Undertake economic analysis on benefits of improved weather and climate services

In house seminar to discuss and raise awareness of economic value and value for money of weather and climate services No

250,000

1

250,000

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

Field trips for survey (transport) days

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

780,000

Field trips for survey (mission allowances) days

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

-

370,000

Production of briefing notes No 10,000

-

10,000

100

1,000,000

10,000

100

1,000,000

10,000

-

2,000,000

Workshop/seminar to present findings to policy makers etc No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

Field trips for case studies (transport) days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

780,000

Field trips for case studies (mission allowances) days

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

370,000

Costs for household surveys lump sum 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

3

15,000,000

5,000,000

-

15,000,000

Production of briefing notes No 2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

-

-

Workshop/seminar to present findings to policy makers etc No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

75

Technical Assistance to undertake an economic analysis of benefits of improved weather and climate services across Rwanda's economy

RWF 30,000,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical Assistance to undertake case studies to demonstrate impact of improved climate services on the ground [included in above]

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

16,150,000

-

16,150,000

Activity 4.2 Development of Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Implementation

In house seminar to review logframe and develop and understand monitoring and evaluation approach to the project No

250,000

1

250,000

250,000

1

250,000

250,000

-

250,000

-

500,000

Field trips for monitoring and evaluation (transport) days

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

780,000

Field trips for monitoring and evaluation (mission allowances) days

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

-

370,000

Allowance for household surveys and other specific studies needed to establish baselines and inform project monitoring and evaluation lump sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

1

10,000,000

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

Workshop/seminar to present impact of the project to stakeholders No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to develop a robust monitoring and evaluation plan for the programme

RWF 4,513,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 250,000

1,400,000

10,000,000

-

11,650,000

Activity 4.3 Produce and disseminate materials to support understanding and uptake of weather and

76

climate information

In house seminar to review develop/review list of material and programme for understanding and uptake No

250,000

1

250,000

250,000

1

250,000

250,000

-

250,000

-

500,000

Production of briefing notes, publication, learning materials etc

Per Publication

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

2,000,000

Printing and distribution of materials No

6,300

-

6,300

-

6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

2,520,000

Regional Seminars to promote uptake and understanding (lumps sum estimate of all costs) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

3

7,500,000

7,500,000

Attendance at regional cross learning events (lump sum estimate per trip) No

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

2

3,000,000

3,000,000

Attendance at international cross learning events (lump sum estimate per trip) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

2

5,000,000

5,000,000

Sub-total

250,000

250,000

2,260,000

17,760,000

20,520,000

Activity 4.4 General Support to Project Management and Technical Coordination

Project Allowances for Meteo Rwanda Staff (estimated total per month) month

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

18,000,000

Allowance for specific project management training and support to project team (estimated lump sum per year) lump sum

20,000,000

1

20,000,000

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

Estimated travel and disbursements related to project manager and technical assistance contracts (estimated lump sum per quarter) lump sum

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

12,000,000

Support staff and operations lump sum 1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

5,833,400

Project manager monthly allowance month

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

12,000,000

Technical Coordinator (from Met Office)

RWF 84,240,000

45

-

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

77

Sub-total

31,958,350

11,958,350

11,958,350 11,958,350

67,833,400

Output 4 Totals

32,458,350

13,608,350

40,368,350 29,718,350

116,153,400

Grand Totals

75,679,350

69,939,350

93,929,350 72,704,350

312,252,400

206

78

Year 2 (Q1) Year 2 (Q2) Year 2(Q3) Year 2(Q4) TOTAL (year)

Unit cost Quantity

Budget Unit cost Quantity

Budget Unit cost Quantity

Budget Unit cost Quantity

Budget

Notes: 1

Output

Activity Description/Unit

Output 1: Processes and techniques for the identification of demand led weather and climate information developed and implemented

Activity 1.1 Undertake Stakeholder Analysis with respect to weather and climate services

In house Workshops (Kigali) No 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Sector Workshops (Kigali) No 260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

-

Engagement Meetings (each District)

No 500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

Field Survey (user needs) No 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

Transport Costs Day 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Mission allowances (Meteo staff) Nights 30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

Document Preparation and Printing

No 15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

-

Technical assistance to develop the participatory approached needed to undertake adequate stakeholder analysis

RWF 26,177,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 1.2 Review of weather and climate-sensitive policies at national and sub-national level

Policy Seminars (Kigali) (estimated lump sum per seminar)

No 500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

Assessment of national policies and plans

included in 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Assessment of district policies and plans

included in 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Document Preparation and Printing

No 15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 1.3 Support the set up and development of Sector

79

Stakeholders Group

Preparatory workshop for sector stakeholders group (estimate lump sum cost).

No 4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 1.4 Identify potential new and revised products

In house seminar to discuss and scope out new product suite (lump sum for seminar)

No 200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals to stakeholders (estimated lump sum)

No 3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

Sub-total -

200,000

-

200,000

400,000

Activity 1.5 - Design and Deliver Training for Meteo Rwanda staff - participatory approaches

Sector Workshops (Kigali) No 260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

-

Technical support to provide training to staff on stakeholder engagement and participatory approaches

RWF 3,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 1.6 Training for Meteo Rwanda station managers (13) to improve outreach

In house seminar to discuss and scope new station manager roles and responsibilities and scope of training programme

No 200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Delivery of training programme (estimated lump sum for delivery to all 13 station managers)

No 15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

Delivery of refresher training programme (estimated lump sum for delivery to all 13 station managers)

No 7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

1

7,500,000

7,500,000

Technical Assistance for the development of station managers training programme

RWF 3,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

80

Sub-total -

200,000

-

7,700,000

7,900,000

Activity 1.7 Training for non-Meteo Rwanda staff around weather and climate issues (agronomists, disaster monitors)

Costs included in intermediary training, activity 3.10

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

Activity 1.8 Deliver stakeholder engagement plan

Costs included in other activities in Outputs 2 and 3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

Activity 1.9 Develop Sector Stakeholder Group

Included in Activity 1.3 -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

Output 1 Totals -

400,000

-

7,900,000

8,300,000

Output 2: Improved Capacity at Meteo Rwanda to design, produce and verify weather and climate information and products, based on sound science

Work Area (a) - Improvements to Observations Network

Activity 2.1 Scoping of most cost effective observations upgrading (informed by products identified in Output 1)

Inspection and inventory of existing network in all Districts - mission allowance (2 people for 2 days in 27 Districts)

days 30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

Transport - vehicle hire days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Instrument identification tagging item 600

-

600

-

600

-

600

-

-

Produce forward plan for observations network, including capital investments, operations and maintenance for effective climate monitoring and forecast production over Rwanda

Lump Sum 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

81

Technical Assistance to support the activites above

RWF 3,692,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.2 Scoping of climatology and data digitisation of existing data required

Reorganization of data and records at source stations -allow 5 days at each station (mission allowance for 65 days)

days 30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

Transport to principal stations - vehicle hire (allow 5 days for each station)

days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Assessment of direct and indirect methods of assembling and studying climate records to enable product development

days 130,000

-

130,000

-

130,000

-

130,000

-

-

Archive and storage materials lump sum 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.3 Feasibility Study for development of community managed observations

Make assessment of current status of community managed observations at sample stations (mission allowance)

included in 2.2 above

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

Hold consultative meeting of stakeholders to review improvements to respective managed observations

No 452,000

-

452,000

-

452,000

-

452,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.4 Specification and procurement of observations equipment

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Procure parts of, relocate and install solar power systems at 5 stations offices and at HQ

No 2,000,000

5

10,000,000

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

10,000,000

Automatic Weather Station No 15,000,000

10

150,000,000

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

150,000,000

Telemetry rain gauges No 1,700,000

35

59,500,000

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

59,500,000

Weather Kits for Schools No 200,000

100

20,000,00

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

20,000,000

82

0

Sub-total 239,500,000

-

-

-

239,500,000

Activity 2.5 Procure calibration equipment and instruments spare parts

Procurement of calibration equipment and provision of training

Lump Sum 15,000,000

1

15,000,000

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

Procurement of observations equipment spare parts

Lump Sum 15,000,000

1

15,000,000

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

Training to station managers on operation and maintenance

Per Station 1,000,000

7

7,000,000

1,000,000

6

6,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

13,000,000

Sub-total 37,000,000

6,000,000

-

-

43,000,000

Activity 2.6 Installation of observations equipment, set up communications and integration with climate database

Installation of stations and replacement of spare parts(mission allowances)

day 30,000

40

1,200,000

30,000

40

1,200,000

30,000

-

30,000

-

2,400,000

Installation of stations and replacement of spare parts(transport)

day 78,000

40

3,120,000

78,000

40

3,120,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

6,240,000

Ground perpetration and civil works

Lump sum 20,000,000

1

20,000,000

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

Data Communication charges Year 4,000,000

1

4,000,000

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

Technical assistance (data and communications) - see separate sheet for breakdown

RWF 1,664,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 28,320,000

4,320,000

-

-

32,640,000

Activity 2.7 Production of Observations Maintenance Manuals and related documents to support operation, management and security of the observations network

Develop maintenance manuals for all types of instruments in English, French and Kinyarwanda

Lump Sum 5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

Production of Manuals No 10,000

-

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

10,000

-

500,000

Sub-total 5,000,000

500,000

-

-

5,500,000

83

Activity 2.8: Standard Operating procedures for Data Management (both current and archived)

In house workshop Lump Sum 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Develop SOPs and Operating Procedures in English, French and Kinyarwanda

Lump Sum 7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

Publication of SOPs for data management, data collection, data transmission and data treatment

no 10,000

50

500,000

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

10,000

-

1,000,000

Technical assistance (SOPs and Data Manuals)

RWF 1,040,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 500,000

500,000

-

-

1,000,000

Activity 2.9: Improvements to climate data management system as identified

Database management system upgrade

Lump Sum 2,000,000

-

2,000,000

1

2,000,000

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

Technical Assistance to provide training for improved data management and software upgrade

RWF 1,456,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

2,000,000

-

-

2,000,000

Activity 2.10: Digitisation of selected existing archived data

Develop data digitisation strategy and implementation plan

included -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

In house Workshops (Kigali) Lump Sum 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Procure third party to undertake digitisation of selected station records

Lump Sum 10,000,000

1

10,000,000

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

Materials, documentation and Printing

Lump Sum 500,000

1

500,000

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

Technical assistance (digitisation strategy)

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 10,500,000

-

-

-

10,500,000

Activity 2.11: Creation of baseline climatology

In house Workshops (Kigali) Lump Sum 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

User Workshop to present findings (Kigali)

No 260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

-

Dissemination materials No 5,000

-

5,000

-

5,000

-

5,000

-

-

84

Technical assistance (creation of baseline climatology)

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

200,000

200,000

Activity 2.12: Development and pilot implementation of community managed observations network

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Workshop to develop strategy for community managed observations

No 500,000

1

500,000

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

Procure mobile telephones No 30,000

-

30,000

110

3,300,000

30,000

-

30,000

-

3,300,000

Software No 5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

Develop training programme for community managed observations

Lump Sum 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

Train observers (1 person for 25 days, travel)

Days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

25

1,950,000

78,000

25

1,950,000

3,900,000

Train observers (1 person for 25 days, mission allowances)

Days 37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

25

925,000

37,000

25

925,000

1,850,000

Train observers (travel and allowance for volunteer observers)

No 50,000

-

50,000

100

5,000,000

50,000

25

1,250,000

50,000

25

1,250,000

7,500,000

Running Costs Year 2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

Sub-total 8,000,000

13,300,000

4,125,000

4,125,000

29,550,000

Activity 2.13 Continued maintenance and calibration observations equipment

Costs included elsewhere -

1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.14 Further development of the community managed observations network

Costs included elsewhere -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Work Area (b) - Production of New Products

Activity 2.15 Scoping of forecasting techniques and skills required and development of training and mentoring plan

In house workshops (Kigali) No 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

85

Technical Assistance to develop forward plan for development of forecasting techniques at all timescales - from nowcasting to seasonal and climate change scenarios dependent on products identified in Output 1

RWF 6,572,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.16 Development of products and standard operating procedures (all timescales)

In house workshop Lump Sum 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Undertake product development cycle (testing and development) [note costs will vary dependent on types of products identified]

Lump Sum per product

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Develop SOPs and Operating Procedures for new products

Lump Sum 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

Production of publications/manuals

no 10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

Technical Assistance in product development and development of Standard Operating Procedures

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.17 Verification and validation of all new products (all timescales)

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

In house workshop Lump Sum 250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

-

Produce case studies No 2,000,000

-

2,000,000

2

4,000,000

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

2

4,000,000

8,000,000

Technical Assistance to develop verification and validation techniques and undertake joint case study analysis

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

8,000,000

Activity 2.18 Development and implementation of training and mentoring programme for Meteo Rwanda staff (all timescales)

In house workshop Lump Sum 200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Allowance for study visit (UK) No 2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

-

5,000,000

86

Allowance for study visit (regional) No 1,500,000

1

1,500,000

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

1

1,500,000

1,500,000

-

3,000,000

Allowances for other training and self learning programmes

Lump Sum

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

-

7,500,000

Technical support to develop overall training and mentoring programme to ensure delivery of new products [includes all categories below]

RWF 38,719,200

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (nowcasting/medium term forecasting, including from radar, NWP etc)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (seasonal)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (long term forecasting)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (long term)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (climate data and management)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (IT skills, programming etc)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 6,500,000

2,700,000

6,500,000

200,000

15,900,000

Activity 2.19 Design and implement a suite of regional climate modelling experiments

In house workshop Lump Sum 200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Develop and disseminate climate scenarios for Rwanda

lump sum 10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

Technical support to design climate modelling experiments [included in 2.18 above]

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

200,000

-

5,200,000

5,400,000

Activity 2.20 Upgrades to hardware/software as required for effective production of new products

87

Upgrade of forecasting equipment Lump Sum 68,000,000

-

68,000,000

1

34,000,000

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

34,000,000

Software upgrades (GIS etc) Lump Sum 30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

-

Sub-total -

34,000,000

-

-

34,000,000

Activity 2.21 Building 4 Meteo Office in Districts

Architecture design and supervision

No 3,000,000

-

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

-

Land deeds No 2,000,000

-

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Construction No 35,000,000

-

-

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Output 2 Totals 335,320,000

67,520,000

10,625,000

13,725,000

427,190,000

Output 3: Increased access to weather and climate information to users through a range of communication channels

Activity 3.1 Assessment of user needs in context of communications

Costs deemed to be included in Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.2 Investigation into reach, capacity and audiences of local and national media (based on media workshop) and other communications channels (SMS, social media etc)

In house seminar to discuss communication and media options, existing initiatives and forward plans

No 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Seminar to identify specific media output needs relevant to weather and climate (estimated lump sum for all conference costs)

No 3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals (estimated lump sum for all conference costs)

No 3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

88

Technical assistance to assess media and communication channels, reach, audience share, audience habits etc and make recommendations for cost effective use of different communication channels

RWF 13,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.3 Redesigning weather and climate outputs for media use including media and other related training

Technical assistance to support Meteo Rwanda in redesign of products for media use (training on presentation, script writing etc)

days -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Training Seminar (estimate lump sum costs per seminar)

No 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Software and hardware for production for improved presentation and delivery of weather and climate products (estimated lump sum)

Lump Sum 7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.4 Climate Intermediaries assessment

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

National workshop to develop methodologies to communicate climate services at scale through intermediaries for farmer communities and others in Rwanda -to avoid overlaps, conflict of interest and contradictions in statements of authority (estimated lump sum for workshop)

No 9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

-

Set up of working committee and feedback mechanisms for climate intermediates (estimated lump sum for activity)

No 200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

Engagement Meetings to identify intermediary channels (each District)

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Fuel and Transport Costs Undertaken at same time as

Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

89

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.5 Preparation of National Communications Strategy for Weather and Climate Services

In house seminar to discuss and scope out communications strategy (lump sum for seminar)

No 200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

200,000

-

200,000

1

200,000

400,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals to stakeholders (estimated lump sum)

No 3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

Fuel and Transport Costs days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* days 37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

Technical assistance to support Meteo Rwanda develop national strategic plan for communication of weather and climate services (do analysis, segment, establish communication policy and rules, identify gaps and poor links, formulate strategy and undertake planning)

RWF 12,620,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

200,000

-

200,000

400,000

Activity 3.6 Roll out of communications strategy

Awareness raising of new strategy within Meteo Rwanda staff - workshops/seminars in Kigali and in the Districts. Estimated lump sum

No 5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

-

Improved communications with out of Kigali staff (Skype/web portal etc)

Lump Sum 2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

Upgrade of website Lump Sum 10,000,000

1

10,000,000

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

Payments to media outlets Month 900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

10,800,000

Setup SMS portal Month 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

SMS dissemination Month 1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

12,000,000

90

Develop and publish brochures, education materials to demonstrate the value and application of weather and climate information and knowledge

No 2,000

500

1,000,000

2,000

500

1,000,000

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000,000

Development and delivery of a training programme for policy makers to raise awareness of weather and climate issues (estimated lump sum)

No 7,500,000

1

7,500,000

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

Technical Assistance to support the roll out of the communications strategy as required

RWF 12,620,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 24,200,000

6,700,000

5,700,000

5,700,000

42,300,000

Activity 3.7 Seasonal Forecast Dissemination (NCOF, GHACOF consultative group, and provincial dissemination)

National Climate Outlook Forum (Kigali) twice per year (venue and subsistence)

Lump Sum 6,500,000

1

6,500,000

6,500,000

-

6,500,000

1

6,500,000

6,500,000

-

13,000,000

Provincial meetings to disseminate seasonal forecast

No 500,000

5

2,500,000

500,000

-

500,000

5

2,500,000

500,000

-

5,000,000

Transport (days) days 78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

1,560,000

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* Nights 37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

740,000

Press Conference for Seasonal Forecast

Lump Sum 1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

2,000,000

Document Preparation and Printing

No 10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

1,000,000

Attendance at GHACOF (flights and subsistence for 1 person at each meeting

No 1,200,000

1

1,200,000

1,200,000

-

1,200,000

1

1,200,000

1,200,000

-

2,400,000

Sub-total 12,850,000

-

12,850,000

-

25,700,000

Activity 3.8 Preparation and implementation of district communications plans

Direct support to District administrations to developed and implements weather and climate communication plans to enable between use and uptake of information at all levels

No 2,500,000

15

37,500,000

2,500,000

15

37,500,000

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

75,000,000

Engagement Meetings (each District)

No 400,000

15

6,000,000

400,000

15

6,000,000

400,000

-

400,000

-

12,000,000

Sub-total 43,500,000

43,500,000

-

-

87,000,000

91

Activity 3.9 Development of a Service Level Agreement (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda and customers

Costs included elsewhere -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.10 Design and delivery of 'intermediary' training

Roll out of intermediary training in 10 districts (estimated total cost per District)

District 10,000,000

3

30,000,000

10,000,000

3

30,000,000

10,000,000

4

40,000,000

10,000,000

-

100,000,000

Seasonal feedback meeting with intermediaries and refresher training (estimated annual cost per district)

District 1,000,000

-

1,000,000

10

10,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

10

10,000,000

20,000,000

Technical Assistance to support the development of a training programme for climate intermediaries

RWF 6,905,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 30,000,000

40,000,000

40,000,000

10,000,000

120,000,000

Activity 3.11 Monitoring of access to weather and climate information through various channels - review and update of communications channels

Annual review workshop and report, update of communications strategy (estimated lump sum cost)

No 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

Sub-total -

-

-

2,500,000

2,500,000

Output 3 Totals 110,550,000

90,400,000

58,550,000

18,400,000

277,900,000

Output 4: Project Management and Coordination Strengthened

Activity 4.1 Undertake economic analysis on benefits of improved weather and climate services

In house seminar to discuss and raise awareness of economic value and value for money of weather and climate services

No 250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

-

Field trips for survey (transport) days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Field trips for survey (mission allowances)

days 37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

Production of briefing notes No 10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

92

Workshop/seminar to present findings to policy makers etc

No 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Field trips for case studies (transport)

days 78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

780,000

Field trips for case studies (mission allowances)

days 37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

-

370,000

Costs for household surveys lump sum 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

3

15,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

15,000,000

Production of briefing notes No

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

100

200,000

2,000

-

200,000

Workshop/seminar to present findings to policy makers etc

No 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to undertake an economic analysis of benefits of improved weather and climate services across Rwanda's economy

RWF 30,000,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical Assistance to undertake case studies to demonstrate impact of improved climate services on the ground [included in above]

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

16,150,000

200,000

-

-

16,350,000

Activity 4.2 Development of Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Implementation

In house seminar to review logframe and develop and understand monitoring and evaluation approach to the project

No 250,000

1

250,000

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

1

250,000

500,000

Field trips for monitoring and evaluation (transport)

days 78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

Field trips for monitoring and evaluation (mission allowances)

days 37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

Allowance for household surveys and other specific studies needed to establish baselines and inform project monitoring and evaluation

lump sum 10,000,000

-

10,000,000

1

10,000,000

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

Workshop/seminar to present impact of the project to stakeholders

No 5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

Technical Assistance to develop a robust monitoring and evaluation plan for the programme

RWF 4,513,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total 250,000

10,000,000

-

250,000

10,500,000

Activity 4.3 Produce and disseminate materials to

93

support understanding and uptake of weather and climate information

In house seminar to review develop/review list of material and programme for understanding and uptake

No 250,000

1

250,000

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

1

250,000

500,000

Production of briefing notes, publication, learning materials etc

Per Publication

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

4,000,000

Printing and distribution of materials

No 6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

5,040,000

Regional Seminars to promote uptake and understanding (lumps sum estimate of all costs)

No 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

3

7,500,000

7,500,000

Attendance at regional cross learning events (lump sum estimate per trip)

No 1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

2

3,000,000

3,000,000

Attendance at international cross learning events (lump sum estimate per trip)

No 2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

2

5,000,000

5,000,000

Sub-total 2,510,000

2,260,000

2,260,000

18,010,000

25,040,000

Activity 4.4 General Support to Project Management and Technical Coordination

Project Allowances for Meteo Rwanda Staff (estimated total per month)

month 1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

18,000,000

Allowance for specific project management training and support to project team (estimated lump sum per year)

lump sum 20,000,000

1

20,000,000

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

Estimated travel and disbursements related to project manager and technical assistance contracts (estimated lump sum per quarter)

lump sum 3,000,000

1

3,000,000

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

3,000,000

1

3,000,000

12,000,000

Support staff and operations lump sum 1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

5,833,400

Project manager monthly allowance

month 1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

12,000,000

Technical Coordinator (from Met Office)

RWF 84,240,000

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

Sub-total 31,958,350

11,958,350

11,958,350

11,958,350

67,833,400

Output 4 Totals 34,718,350

40,368,350

14,418,350

30,218,350

119,723,400

Grand Totals 480,588,350

198,688,350

83,593,350

70,243,350

833,113,400

207

94

Year 3 208 209

Year 3 (Q1) Year 3 (Q2) Year 3(Q3) Year 3(Q4)

TOTAL (year)

TOTAL (activity)

Unit

cost

Quantity

Budget Unit cost

Quantity

Budget

Unit cost

Quantity

Budget

Unit cost

Quantity Budget

Notes: 1 Output Activity

Description/Unit

Output 1:

Processes and techniques for the identification of demand led weather and climate information developed and implemented

Activity 1.1 Undertake Stakeholder Analysis with respect to weather and climate services

In house Workshops (Kigali) No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

200,000

Sector Workshops (Kigali) No

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

-

260,000

Engagement Meetings (each District) No

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

15,000,000

Field Survey (user needs) No

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

10,000,000

Transport Costs Day

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

3,900,000

Mission allowances (Meteo staff) Nights

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

3,000,000

Document Preparation and Printing No

15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

-

2,250,000

Technical assistance to develop the participatory approached needed to undertake adequate stakeholder analysis

RWF 26,177,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

34,610,000

Activity 1.2 Review of weather and climate-sensitive policies at national and sub-national level

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Policy Seminars (Kigali) (estimated lump sum per seminar) No

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

1,000,000

Assessment of national policies and plans

included in 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Assessment of district policies and

plans

included in

1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

95

Document Preparation and Printing No

15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

15,000

-

-

1,500,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

2,500,000

Activity 1.3 Support the set up and development of Sector Stakeholders Group

-

Preparatory workshop for sector stakeholders group (estimate lump sum cost). No

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

4,960,000

-

-

4,960,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

4,960,000

Activity 1.4 Identify potential new and revised products

-

In house seminar to discuss and scope out new product suite (lump sum for seminar) No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

1,000,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals to stakeholders (estimated lump sum) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

3,500,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

4,500,000

Activity 1.5 - Design and Deliver Training for Meteo Rwanda staff - participatory approaches

-

Sector Workshops (Kigali) No

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

-

260,000

Technical support to provide training to staff on stakeholder engagement and participatory approaches

RWF 3,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

260,000

Activity 1.6 Training for Meteo Rwanda station managers (13) to improve outreach

-

In house seminar to discuss and scope new station manager roles and responsibilities and scope of training programme No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

1,000,000

96

Delivery of training programme (estimated lump sum for delivery to all 13 station managers)

No

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

15,000,000

Delivery of refresher training programme (estimated lump sum for delivery to all 13 station managers)

No

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

7,500,000

Technical Assistance for the development of station managers training programme RWF

3,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

23,500,000

Activity 1.7 Training for non-Meteo Rwanda staff around weather and climate issues (agronomists, disaster monitors)

-

Costs included in intermediary training, activity 3.10

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

Activity 1.8 Deliver stakeholder engagement plan

-

Costs included in other activities in Outputs 2 and 3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

Activity 1.9 Develop Sector Stakeholder Group

-

Included in Activity 1.3

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

Output 1 Totals

-

-

-

-

-

70,330,000

Output 2:

Improved Capacity at Meteo Rwanda to design, produce and verify weather and climate information and products, based on sound science

Work Area (a) - Improvements to Observations Network

Activity 2.1 Scoping of most cost effective observations upgrading (informed by products identified in Output 1)

97

Inspection and inventory of existing network in all Districts - mission allowance (2 people for 2 days in 27 Districts) days

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

3,240,000

Transport - vehicle hire days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

4,212,000

Instrument identification tagging item

600

-

600

-

600

-

1,400

-

-

2,940,000

Produce forward plan for observations network, including capital investments, operations and maintenance for effective climate monitoring and forecast production over Rwanda Lump Sum

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

1,000,000

Technical Assistance to support the activites above

RWF 3,692,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

11,392,000

Activity 2.2 Scoping of climatology and data digitisation of existing data required

Reorganization of data and records at source stations -allow 5 days at each station (mission allowance for 65 days) days

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

3,900,000

Transport to principal stations - vehicle hire (allow 5 days for each station) days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

5,070,000

Assessment of direct and indirect methods of assembling and studying climate records to enable product development days

130,000

-

130,000

-

130,000

-

130,000

-

-

650,000

Archive and storage materials lump sum

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

2,500,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

12,120,000

Activity 2.3 Feasibility Study for development of community managed observations

-

Make assessment of current status of community managed observations at sample stations (mission

allowance)

included in

2.2 above

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

300,000

98

Hold consultative meeting of stakeholders to review improvements to respective managed observations No

452,000

-

452,000

-

452,000

-

452,000

-

-

452,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

752,000

Activity 2.4 Specification and procurement of observations equipment

-

Procure parts of, relocate and install solar power systems at 5 stations offices and at HQ No

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

10,000,000

Automatic Weather Station No

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

150,000,000

Telemetry rain gauges No

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

1,700,000

-

-

59,500,000

Weather Kits for Schools No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

20,000,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

239,500,000

Activity 2.5 Procure calibration equipment and instruments spare parts

-

Procurement of calibration equipment and provision of training Lump Sum

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

15,000,000

Procurement of observations equipment spare parts Lump Sum

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

15,000,000

-

-

15,000,000

Training to station managers on operation and maintenance Per Station

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

13,000,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

43,000,000

Activity 2.6 Installation of observations equipment, set up communications and integration with climate database

-

Installation of stations and replacement of spare parts(mission allowances) day

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

2,400,000

Installation of stations and replacement of spare parts(transport) day

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

6,240,000

Ground perpetration and civil works Lump sum

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

-

20,000,000

Data Communication charges Year

4,000,000

1

4,000,000

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

12,000,000

99

Technical assistance (data and communications) - see separate sheet for breakdown

RWF 1,664,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

4,000,000

-

-

-

4,000,000

40,640,000

Activity 2.7 Production of Observations Maintenance Manuals and related documents to support operation, management and security of the observations network

-

Develop maintenance manuals for all types of instruments in English, French and Kinyarwanda

Lump Sum

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

5,000,000

Production of Manuals No

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

500,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

5,500,000

Activity 2.8: Standard Operating procedures for Data Management (both current and archived)

-

In house workshop Lump Sum

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

5,000,000

Develop SOPs and Operating Procedures in English, French and Kinyarwanda Lump Sum

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

7,500,000

Publication of SOPs for data management, data collection, data transmission and data treatment no

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

1,000,000

Technical assistance (SOPs and Data Manuals)

RWF 1,040,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

13,500,000

Activity 2.9: Improvements to climate data management system as identified

-

Database management system upgrade Lump Sum

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

2,000,000

Technical Assistance to provide training for improved data management and software upgrade

RWF 1,456,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

2,000,000

100

Activity 2.10: Digitisation of selected existing archived data

-

Develop data digitisation strategy and implementation plan included

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

In house Workshops (Kigali) Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

200,000

Procure third party to undertake digitisation of selected station records Lump Sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

-

10,000,000

Materials, documentation and Printing Lump Sum

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

500,000

Technical assistance (digitisation strategy)

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

10,700,000

Activity 2.11: Creation of baseline climatology

-

In house Workshops (Kigali) Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

200,000

User Workshop to present findings (Kigali) No

260,000

1

260,000

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

-

260,000

260,000

Dissemination materials No

5,000

100

500,000

5,000

-

5,000

-

5,000

-

500,000

500,000

Technical assistance (creation of baseline climatology)

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

760,000

-

-

-

760,000

960,000

Activity 2.12: Development and pilot implementation of community managed observations network

-

Workshop to develop strategy for community managed observations No

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

500,000

-

-

500,000

Procure mobile telephones No

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

30,000

-

-

3,300,000

Software No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

5,000,000

Develop training programme for community managed observations

Lump Sum

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

5,000,000

Train observers (1 person for 25 days, travel)

Days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

3,900,000

101

Train observers (1 person for 25 days, mission allowances)

Days

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

1,850,000

Train observers (travel and allowance for volunteer observers)

No

50,000

-

50,000

-

50,000

-

50,000

-

-

7,500,000

Running Costs Year

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

5,000,000

Sub-total

2,500,000

-

-

-

2,500,000

32,050,000

Activity 2.13 Continued maintenance and calibration observations equipment

-

Costs included elsewhere

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.14 Further development of the community managed observations network

-

Costs included elsewhere

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Work Area (b) - Production of New Products

Activity 2.15 Scoping of forecasting techniques and skills required and development of training and mentoring plan

In house workshops (Kigali) No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

800,000

Technical Assistance to develop forward plan for development of forecasting techniques at all timescales - from nowcasting to seasonal and climate change scenarios dependent on products identified in Output 1

RWF 6,572,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

800,000

Activity 2.16 Development of products and standard operating procedures (all timescales)

-

In house workshop Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

200,000

Undertake product development cycle (testing and development) [note costs will vary dependent on types of products identified]

Lump Sum per product

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

50,000,000

102

Develop SOPs and Operating Procedures for new products Lump Sum

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

10,000,000

Production of publications/manuals no

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

1,000,000

Technical Assistance in product development and development of Standard Operating Procedures

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

-

Activity 2.17 Verification and validation of all new products (all timescales)

-

In house workshop Lump Sum

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

-

250,000

Produce case studies No

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

2

4,000,000

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

2

4,000,000

8,000,000

16,000,000

Technical Assistance to develop verification and validation techniques and undertake joint case study analysis

RWF 2,953,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

4,000,000

-

4,000,000

8,000,000

16,250,000

Activity 2.18 Development and implementation of training and mentoring programme for Meteo Rwanda staff (all timescales)

-

In house workshop Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

800,000

Allowance for study visit (UK) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

5,000,000

Allowance for study visit (regional) No

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

-

3,000,000

Allowances for other training and self learning programmes Lump Sum

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

10,000,000

17,500,000

Technical support to develop overall training and mentoring programme to ensure delivery of new products [includes all categories below]

RWF 38,719,200

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

103

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (nowcasting/medium term forecasting, including from radar, NWP etc)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (seasonal)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (long term forecasting)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (long term)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (climate data and management)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical support to provide training and mentoring (IT skills, programming etc)

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

2,500,000

2,500,000

2,500,000 2,500,000

10,000,000

26,300,000

Activity 2.19 Design and implement a suite of regional climate modelling experiments

-

In house workshop Lump Sum

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

800,000

Develop and disseminate climate scenarios for Rwanda lump sum

10,000,000

1

5,000,000

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

5,000,000

10,000,000

Technical support to design climate modelling experiments [included in 2.18 above]

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

5,000,000

-

-

-

5,000,000

10,800,000

Activity 2.20 Upgrades to hardware/software as required for effective production of new products

-

Upgrade of forecasting equipment Lump Sum

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

68,000,000

-

-

34,000,000

Software upgrades (GIS etc) Lump Sum

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

30,000,000

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

34,000,000

Activity 2.21 Building 4 Meteo

104

Office in Districts -

Architecture design and supervision No

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

-

-

Land deeds No

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

-

Construction No

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

35,000,000

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

-

Output 2 Totals

14,760,000

6,500,000

2,500,000

6,500,000

30,260,000

500,264,000

Output 3:

Increased access to weather and climate information to users through a range of communication channels

-

Activity 3.1 Assessment of user needs in context of communications

-

Costs deemed to be included in Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.2 Investigation into reach, capacity and audiences of local and national media (based on media workshop) and other communications channels (SMS, social media etc)

-

In house seminar to discuss communication and media options, existing initiatives and forward plans No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

200,000

Seminar to identify specific media output needs relevant to weather and climate (estimated lump sum for all conference costs) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

3,500,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals (estimated lump sum for all conference costs) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

3,500,000

Technical assistance to assess media and communication channels, reach, audience share, audience habits etc and make recommendations for cost effective use of different communication channels

RWF 13,057,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

7,200,000

105

Activity 3.3 Redesigning weather and climate outputs for media use including media and other related training

-

Technical assistance to support Meteo Rwanda in redesign of products for media use (training on presentation, script writing etc) days

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Training Seminar (estimate lump sum costs per seminar) No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

800,000

Software and hardware for production for improved presentation and delivery of weather and climate products (estimated lump sum) Lump Sum

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

7,500,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

8,300,000

Activity 3.4 Climate Intermediaries assessment

-

National workshop to develop methodologies to communicate climate services at scale through intermediaries for farmer communities and others in Rwanda -to avoid overlaps, conflict of interest and contradictions in statements of authority (estimated lump sum for workshop)

No

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

9,630,000

-

-

9,630,000

Set up of working committee and feedback mechanisms for climate intermediates (estimated lump sum for activity) No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

200,000

Engagement Meetings to identify intermediary channels (each District)

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Fuel and Transport Costs

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)*

Undertaken at same time as Activity 1.1

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

106

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

9,830,000

Activity 3.5 Preparation of National Communications Strategy for Weather and Climate Services

-

In house seminar to discuss and scope out communications strategy (lump sum for seminar) No

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

200,000

-

-

800,000

Seminar to feed back Meteo Rwanda proposals to stakeholders (estimated lump sum) No

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

3,500,000

-

-

3,500,000

Fuel and Transport Costs days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

1,170,000

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* days

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

555,000

Technical assistance to support Meteo Rwanda develop national strategic plan for communication of weather and climate services (do analysis, segment, establish communication policy and rules, identify gaps and poor links, formulate strategy and undertake planning)

RWF 12,620,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

6,025,000

Activity 3.6 Roll out of communications strategy

-

Awareness raising of new strategy within Meteo Rwanda staff - workshops/seminars in Kigali and in the Districts. Estimated lump sum

No

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

5,700,000

-

-

5,700,000

Improved communications with out of Kigali staff (Skype/web portal etc)

Lump Sum

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

2,000,000

-

-

-

Upgrade of website

Lump Sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

-

10,000,000

Payments to media outlets

Month

900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

900,000

3

2,700,000

10,800,000

27,000,000

Setup SMS portal

Month

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

-

-

1,000,000

SMS dissemination

Month

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

12,000,000

30,000,000

107

Develop and publish brochures, education materials to demonstrate the value and application of weather and climate information and knowledge No

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

-

-

4,000,000

Development and delivery of a training programme for policy makers to raise awareness of weather and climate issues (estimated lump sum) No

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

7,500,000

-

-

7,500,000

Technical Assistance to support the roll out of the communications strategy as required

RWF 12,620,800

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

5,700,000

5,700,000

5,700,000

5,700,000

22,800,000

85,200,000

Activity 3.7 Seasonal Forecast Dissemination (NCOF, GHACOF consultative group, and provincial dissemination)

-

National Climate Outlook Forum (Kigali) twice per year (venue and subsistence)

Lump Sum

6,500,000

1

6,500,000

6,500,000

-

6,500,000

1

6,500,000

6,500,000

-

13,000,000

39,000,000

Provincial meetings to disseminate seasonal forecast No

500,000

5

2,500,000

500,000

-

500,000

5

2,500,000

500,000

-

5,000,000

15,000,000

Transport (days) days

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

1,560,000

4,680,000

Mission allowances (Meteo staff)* Nights

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

740,000

2,220,000

Press Conference for Seasonal Forecast Lump Sum

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

1

1,000,000

1,000,000

-

2,000,000

6,000,000

Document Preparation and Printing No

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

10,000

50

500,000

10,000

-

1,000,000

3,000,000

Attendance at GHACOF (flights and subsistence for 1 person at each meeting No

1,200,000

1

1,200,000

1,200,000

-

1,200,000

1

1,200,000

1,200,000

-

2,400,000

7,200,000

Sub-total

12,850,000

-

12,850,000

-

25,700,000

77,100,000

Activity 3.8 Preparation and implementation of district communications plans

-

108

Direct support to District administrations to developed and implements weather and climate communication plans to enable between use and uptake of information at all levels

No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

-

75,000,000

Engagement Meetings (each District) No

400,000

-

400,000

-

400,000

-

400,000

-

-

24,000,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

99,000,000

Activity 3.9 Development of a Service Level Agreement (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda and customers

-

Costs included elsewhere

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

-

-

-

-

-

Activity 3.10 Design and delivery of 'intermediary' training

-

Roll out of intermediary training in 10 districts (estimated total cost per District) District

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

-

100,000,000

Seasonal feedback meeting with intermediaries and refresher training (estimated annual cost per district) District

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

10

10,000,000

1,000,000

-

1,000,000

10

10,000,000

20,000,000

40,000,000

Technical Assistance to support the development of a training programme for climate intermediaries

RWF 6,905,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

140,000,000

Activity 3.11 Monitoring of access to weather and climate information through various channels - review and update of communications channels

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Annual review workshop and report, update of communications strategy (estimated lump sum cost) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

1

2,500,000

2,500,000

7,500,000

Sub-total

-

-

-

2,500,000

2,500,000

7,500,000

Output 3 Totals 18,550,000

15,700,000

18,550,000

18,200,000

71,000,000

440,155,000

109

Output 4:

Project Management and Coordination Strengthened

-

Activity 4.1 Undertake economic analysis on benefits of improved weather and climate services

-

In house seminar to discuss and raise awareness of economic value and value for money of weather and climate services No

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

-

250,000

Field trips for survey (transport) days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

780,000

Field trips for survey (mission allowances) days

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

370,000

Production of briefing notes No

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

10,000

-

-

2,000,000

Workshop/seminar to present findings to policy makers etc No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

-

5,000,000

Field trips for case studies (transport) days

78,000

-

78,000

10

780,000

78,000

-

78,000

-

780,000

2,340,000

Field trips for case studies (mission allowances) days

37,000

-

37,000

10

370,000

37,000

-

37,000

-

370,000

1,110,000

Costs for household surveys lump sum

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

3

15,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

15,000,000

45,000,000

Production of briefing notes No

2,000

-

2,000

-

2,000

200

400,000

2,000

-

400,000

600,000

Workshop/seminar to present findings to policy makers etc No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

5,000,000

Technical Assistance to undertake an economic analysis of benefits of improved weather and climate services across Rwanda's economy

RWF 30,000,000

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Technical Assistance to undertake case studies to demonstrate impact of improved climate services on the ground [included in above]

RWF -

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total -

-

16,150,000

5,400,000

-

-

21,550,000

54,050,000

Activity 4.2 Development of Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Implementation

-

110

In house seminar to review logframe and develop and understand monitoring and evaluation approach to the project No

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

-

1,000,000

Field trips for monitoring and evaluation (transport) days

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

78,000

-

-

780,000

Field trips for monitoring and evaluation (mission allowances) days

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

37,000

-

-

370,000

Allowance for household surveys and other specific studies needed to establish baselines and inform project monitoring and evaluation lump sum

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

1

10,000,000

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

-

10,000,000

30,000,000

Workshop/seminar to present impact of the project to stakeholders No

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

1

5,000,000

5,000,000

-

5,000,000

5,000,000

Technical Assistance to develop a robust monitoring and evaluation plan for the programme

RWF 4,513,600

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

Sub-total

-

10,000,000

5,000,000

-

15,000,000

37,150,000

Activity 4.3 Produce and disseminate materials to support understanding and uptake of weather and climate information

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

In house seminar to review develop/review list of material and programme for understanding and uptake No

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

250,000

-

-

1,000,000

Production of briefing notes, publication, learning materials etc

Per Publication

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

500,000

2

1,000,000

4,000,000

10,000,000

Printing and distribution of materials No

6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

6,300

200

1,260,000

5,040,000

12,600,000

Regional Seminars to promote uptake and understanding (lumps sum estimate of all costs) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

3

7,500,000

7,500,000

22,500,000

Attendance at regional cross learning events (lump sum estimate per trip) No

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

-

1,500,000

2

3,000,000

3,000,000

9,000,000

111

Attendance at international cross learning events (lump sum estimate per trip) No

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

-

2,500,000

2

5,000,000

5,000,000

15,000,000

Sub-total

2,260,000

2,260,000

2,260,000

17,760,000

24,540,000

70,100,000

Activity 4.4 General Support to Project Management and Technical Coordination

-

Project Allowances for Meteo Rwanda Staff (estimated total per month) month

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

1,500,000

3

4,500,000

18,000,000

54,000,000

Allowance for specific project management training and support to project team (estimated lump sum per year) lump sum

20,000,000

1

20,000,000

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

-

20,000,000

60,000,000

Estimated travel and disbursements related to project manager and technical assistance contracts (estimated lump sum per quarter) lump sum

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

3,000,000

-

-

24,000,000

Support staff and operations lump sum

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

1,458,350

1

1,458,350

5,833,400

17,500,200

Project manager monthly allowance month

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

1,000,000

3

3,000,000

12,000,000

36,000,000

Technical Coordinator (from Met Office)

RWF 84,240,000

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

45

-

-

-

Sub-total

28,958,350

8,958,350

8,958,350

8,958,350

55,833,400

191,500,200

Output 4 Totals

37,368,350

21,618,350

26,718,350

116,923,400

352,800,200

Grand Totals

33,310,000

59,568,350

42,668,350

51,418,350

218,183,400

1,363,549,200

1,363,549,200

210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217

112

Summary of the budget

Indicative Budget Line

Items

Project Name:

Strengthening Meteo Rwanda's

Weather and Climate Services

to Support Development

Project

Number:

Implementing

Partner:

Meteo Rwanda, Met Office

Thematic

Financing

Window

Planning

period : 01/01/2015 to 31/12/2017

1. Personnel Project Total Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Titles

Not used

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

2. Subcontracts

Outsourcing (for breakdown against activites refer to separate sheet)

Met Office (strategic and technical consulting)

RWF 233,646,400

RWF 365,073

RWF 224,660

RWF -

Estimated Disbursements

RWF 23,364,640

RWF 15,894,320

RWF 7,470,320

RWF -

Sub-Total

RWF 257,011,040

RWF 16,259,393

RWF 7,694,980

RWF -

RWF 257,011,040

RWF 16,259,393

RWF 7,694,980

RWF -

3.Summary Activity Costs

Output 1

Activity 1.1 Undertake Stakeholder Analysis with respect to weather and climate services

RWF 34,610,000

RWF 34,610,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 1.2 Review of weather and climate-sensitive policies at national and sub-national level

RWF 2,500,000

RWF 2,500,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 1.3 Support the set up and development of Sector Stakeholders Group

RWF 4,960,000

RWF 4,960,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 1.4 Identify potential new and revised products

RWF 4,500,000

RWF 4,100,000

RWF 400,000

RWF -

Activity 1.5 - Design and Deliver Training for Meteo Rwanda staff - participatory approaches

RWF 260,000

RWF 260,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 1.6 Training for Meteo Rwanda station managers (13) to

RWF 23,500,000

RWF 15,600,000

RWF 7,900,000

RWF -

113

improve outreach

Activity 1.7 Training for non-Meteo Rwanda staff around weather and climate issues (agronomists, disaster monitors)

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 1.8 Deliver stakeholder engagement plan

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 1.9 Develop Sector Stakeholder Group

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF 70,330,000

RWF 62,030,000

RWF 8,300,000

RWF -

Output 2:

Activity 2.1 Scoping of most cost effective observations upgrading (informed by products identified in Output 1)

RWF 11,392,000

RWF 11,392,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 2.2 Scoping of climatology and data digitisation of existing data required

RWF 12,120,000

RWF 12,120,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 2.3 Feasibility Study for development of community managed observations

RWF 752,000

RWF 752,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 2.4 Specification and procurement of observations equipment

RWF 239,500,000

RWF -

RWF 239,500,000

RWF -

Activity 2.5 Procure calibration equipment and instruments spare parts

RWF 43,000,000

RWF -

RWF 43,000,000

RWF -

Activity 2.6 Installation of observations equipment, set up communications and integration with climate database

RWF 40,640,000

RWF 4,000,000

RWF 32,640,000

RWF 4,000,000

Activity 2.7 Production of Observations Maintenance Manuals and related documents to support operation, management and security of the observations network

RWF 5,500,000

RWF -

RWF 5,500,000

RWF -

Activity 2.8: Standard Operating procedures for Data Management (both current and archived)

RWF 13,500,000

RWF 12,500,000

RWF 1,000,000

RWF -

Activity 2.9: Improvements to climate data management system as identified

RWF 2,000,000

RWF -

RWF 2,000,000

RWF -

Activity 2.10: Digitisation of selected existing archived data

RWF 10,700,000

RWF 200,000

RWF 10,500,000

RWF -

Activity 2.11: Creation of baseline climatology

RWF 960,000

RWF -

RWF 200,000

RWF 760,000

Activity 2.12: Development and pilot implementation of community managed observations network

RWF 32,050,000

RWF -

RWF 29,550,000

RWF 2,500,000

Activity 2.13 Continued maintenance and calibration observations equipment

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 2.14 Further development of the community managed observations network

RWF 800,000

RWF 800,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 2.15 Scoping of forecasting techniques and skills required and development of training and mentoring plan

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

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Activity 2.16 Development of products and standard operating procedures (all timescales)

RWF 16,250,000

RWF 250,000

RWF 8,000,000

RWF 8,000,000

Activity 2.17 Verification and validation of all new products (all timescales)

RWF 26,300,000

RWF 400,000

RWF 15,900,000

RWF 10,000,000

Activity 2.18 Development and implementation of training and mentoring programme for Meteo Rwanda staff (all timescales)

RWF 26,300,000

RWF 400,000

RWF 15,900,000

RWF 10,000,000

Activity 2.19 Design and implement a suite of regional climate modelling experiments

RWF 10,800,000

RWF 400,000

RWF 5,400,000

RWF 5,000,000

Activity 2.20 Upgrades to hardware/software as required for effective production of new products

RWF 34,000,000

RWF -

RWF 34,000,000

RWF -

Activity 2.21 Building 4 Meteo Office in Districts

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF

500,264,000 RWF 42,814,000

RWF 427,190,000

RWF 30,260,000

Output 3:

Activity 3.1 Assessment of user needs in context of communications

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 3.2 Investigation into reach, capacity and audiences of local and national media (based on media workshop) and other communications channels (SMS, social media etc)

RWF 7,200,000

RWF 7,200,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 3.3 Redesigning weather and climate outputs for media use including media and other related training

RWF 8,300,000

RWF 8,300,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 3.4 Climate Intermediaries assessment

RWF 9,830,000

RWF 9,830,000

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 3.5 Preparation of National Communications Strategy for Weather and Climate Services

RWF 6,025,000

RWF 5,625,000

RWF 400,000

RWF -

Activity 3.6 Roll out of communications strategy

RWF 85,200,000

RWF 20,100,000

RWF 42,300,000

RWF 22,800,000

Activity 3.7 Seasonal Forecast Dissemination (NCOF, GHACOF consultative group, and provincial dissemination)

RWF 77,100,000

RWF 25,700,000

RWF 25,700,000

RWF 25,700,000

Activity 3.8 Preparation and implementation of district communications plans

RWF 99,000,000

RWF 12,000,000

RWF 87,000,000

RWF -

Activity 3.9 Development of a Service Level Agreement (or similar) between Meteo Rwanda and customers

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

RWF -

Activity 3.10 Design and delivery of 'intermediary' training

RWF 140,000,000

RWF -

RWF 120,000,000

RWF 20,000,000

Activity 3.11 Monitoring of access to weather and climate information through various channels - review and update of communications channels

RWF 7,500,000

RWF 2,500,000

RWF 2,500,000

RWF 2,500,000

RWF

440,155,000 RWF 91,255,000

RWF 277,900,000

RWF 71,000,000

Output 4:

Activity 4.1 Undertake economic analysis on benefits of improved weather and climate services

RWF 54,050,000

RWF 16,150,000

RWF 16,350,000

RWF 21,550,000

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Activity 4.2 Development of Monitoring and Evaluation Framework and Implementation

RWF 37,150,000

RWF 11,650,000

RWF 10,500,000

RWF 15,000,000

Activity 4.3 Produce and disseminate materials to support understanding and uptake of weather and climate information

RWF 70,100,000

RWF 20,520,000

RWF 25,040,000

RWF 24,540,000

Activity 4.4 General Support to Project Management and Technical Coordination

RWF 216,680,160

RWF 76,226,720

RWF 76,226,720

RWF 64,226,720

RWF 377,980,160

RWF 124,546,720

RWF 128,116,720

RWF 125,316,720

Total Activities

RWF 1,388,729,160

RWF 320,645,720

RWF 841,506,720

RWF 226,576,720

Grand Total

RWF 1,645,740,200

RWF 336,905,113

RWF 849,201,700

RWF 226,576,720

Annex F – Initial Cost Benefit Analysis

warning systems, critical infrastructure and environmental buffers are all interventions designed to prevent the economic (property and livelihood damage and destruction) and social costs (lives injured and lost) associated with extreme weather events. As general literature on prevention suggests, interventions focussed on prevention are generally cost effective relative to interventions that address the economic and social costs after the event. A range of Cost Benefit Ratios (CBRs) for various weather related preventative interventions reviewed in recent years are shown below. Whilst these do not relate directly to Africa it does demonstrate the generally high cost benefit ratios for these types of interventions.

Country/Case study Project / intervention CBR

Bangladesh / Sidr Cyclone

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models 40.85:1

Sri Lanka / Floods Regional flood warning system (poor rate of return due to infrequency of flooding)

0.93:1

Vietnam / Hydro meteorological hazards

Advanced weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model

10.4:1

Thailand / Floods Long-lead weather forecast model 176:1

Indonesia / seasonal forecasting

Seasonal climate forecasting model 6:1

India / Drought Seasonal forecast guided decision making US$1.2 billion (benefit)

Europe and Central Asia / Modernisation

National meteorological services (various) 3.1-5.7:1

In calculating the benefits to society/economy, these studies forecast the avoided costs to a number of key sectors of the economy based on the probability of a range of different extreme weather events occurring. Weather events include: flooding, droughts, heat waves, cyclones, avalanches/mudslides, high winds etc. The sectors most regularly included in such analyses include agriculture, water resource management, transport and communications and energy. The benefits (avoided costs) of preventative interventions are sometimes

116

Year 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

PV

Cost 2,486,852 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,000,000

248,685 100,000 100,000 100,000

PV

Benefit(s) min 19,373,540 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10 7,790,387.10

Discount rate: 10%

Min. estimate

BCR 7.08

NPV 16,638,002

Assumptions - based on WORLD BANK, 2008

Annual losses from adverse/dangerous weather conditions (%GDP) min 0.01

Average annual losses prevented through good meteo services (% losses) min 0.11

Rwanda GDP (USD 2014): 7,103,000,000

Estimate of annual losses from adverse/dangerous weather conditions (USD 2014): min -

Average annual losses prevented through good meteo services (USD 2014): min -

straightforward to value and model e.g. lost crop yields in the agriculture sector. However, some benefits (avoided loss of life) are less straight forward to value. A range of techniques can be applied for measuring such outcomes. While none are perfect, this has not proven sufficient reason to not attempt to value and include such outcomes for the simple reason that not valuing non-monetary outcomes in effect values them at zero, undermining prevention. A very simple cost benefit analysis for this project indicates a US$16.6m (NPV) benefit over 3 years for a project investment of US$ 3.0 m. The benefit/cost ratio is based on a conservative benefit period which is the same length as the intervention period (3 years). The calculations were based on a robust methodology from a previous study (World Bank Central Asian Study) adjusted to Rwanda’s level of GDP using a simple ‘benefits transfer’ approach. This has been evaluated against other methodologies and has proven to be one of the more conservative estimates. This gives a CBR of approximately 7, based on the most conservative of estimates. As set out elsewhere, robust economic analysis is a central feature of the project.

Initial cost benefit costs in US $

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ANNEX I: PRINCIPLES OF ENGAGEMENT

1.0 Principles of Engagement between Meteo Rwanda and Met Office – working in

partnership to implement the project

1.1 General Principles Meteo Rwanda and the Met Office, the UK’s National Meteorological Service, will work in a spirit of

partnership, with the overall objective to build the institutional capacity of Meteo Rwanda and

improve the range and reach of the services it provides, in line with the approved Project Document

and drawing on regional and international best practices.

Meteo Rwanda will have overall responsibility for the delivery of the project, with the Met Office

providing Technical Assistance (TA) where required and agreed with Meteo Rwanda.

The arrangement for the implementation of the project is depicted in Figure 1

Meteo Rwanda Delivers project, resulting in improved

institutional capacity and range and uptake of services

Met Office Provides technical assistance, resulting in improved

institutional capacity at Meteo Rwanda

Project Management Team

Manages project and coordinates Meteo Rwanda inputs with

Technical Assistance

Figure 2- Project implementation

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Figure 3 -The project team

1.2 Project Management and Delivery Arrangements

A Project Team will be set up within Meteo Rwanda. The team will consist of a full -time Project

Manager from Meteo Rwanda and a Technical Coordinator from Met Office in addition to a number

of technical leads, as outlined in Figure 3.

Terms of Reference will be prepared for each position and mutually agreed by both parties. The

Terms of Reference for the main roles (Project Manager and Technical Coordinator) are at Annex A.

The Technical Coordinator will report to the Project Manager.

Meteo Rwanda, through the Ministry of Natural Resources (MINIRENA), will be responsible for the

appointment of the Project Manager.

The Met Office will be responsible for the identification of a suitable individual for the Technical

Coordinator role, which will require approval from Meteo Rwanda.

The Project Team will also contain a number of other staff from within Meteo Rwanda, including the

Technical Leads and support staff as required (e.g. secretarial assistance).

The day to day project management and reporting will be the responsibility of Meteo Rwanda

through the Project Manager.

Project Technical Assistance (TA) will be managed, coordinated and advised by the Project Team

(composed of the Project Manager and Technical Leads from Meteo Rwanda, and the Technical

Coordinator from Met Office).

Meteo Rwanda will be responsible for the delivery of each project activity, with TA being provided to

Meteo Rwanda staff or teams to support them where this is required. The Project Manager and

Technical Coordinator will agree on the requirements for each activity in advance.

1.3 Project Governance Meteo Rwanda will identify suitable individuals for the Project Team and others who will contribute

to the project.

Terms of Reference for the Technical Leads within the Project Team will be developed by the Project

Manager and Technical Coordinator.

Project Manager

Technical Lead Improvement

observations, systems, data and application

Technical Lead Stakeholder Management

and Communications

Technical LeadForecasting, product

development and delivery/ dissemination

Technical Lead Monitoring, evaluation,

value for money and accounting

Technical Coordinator

(Met Office)

Technical support

(Met Office and consultants)

Project Support

(secretarial support, transportation etc.)

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Meteo Rwanda will set up a Project Reference Group (or similar) which will communicate project

progress to a wider audience within and outside government.

The Project Manager will coordinate all programmes within the project, supported by the Technical

Coordinator and the Project Team.

The Project Manager will approve and report all expenses incurred in respect of project execution.

Met Office will provide Technical Assistance to the project where necessary as arranged by the

Technical Coordinator.

The Technical Coordinator will prepare the necessary paperwork to enable the payment of Met Office

services provided under the Technical Assistance contract.

All payments must be approved by the Government of Rwanda’s designated accounting officer and in

accordance with FONERWA’s financial management guidelines.

1.4 Procurement and Contracting Arrangements Met Office will provide and coordinate Technical Assistance (TA) to the project.

Met Office is included as a Partner Institution in the Project Document to and shared with all

stakeholders including Meteo Rwanda and FONERWA

Experience The Project Manager will have at least 10 years experience in weather and climate services. The following qualifications and skills will be desirable:

A meteorologist by profession and a trained project manager with experience of managing similar projects

or activities in the past;

Experience of partnership working in project design and management capable of developing and

implementing a work plan to achieve desired project deliverables;

Able to monitor and control time, cost, quality and scope of project activities throughout the project,

including monitoring and evaluation activities, risk management and lessons learnt;

Excellent communication (verbal and written) and strong interpersonal skills;

A good leader who is also able to work as a member of a team;

Excellent analytical and writing skills;

Results oriented and able to meet strict timelines for outputs;

Understands financial audit reports and tendering processes and is able to take informed decisions

including demonstrating value for money;

Able and willing to travel and work in remote areas and in challenging environments;

Self-motivated, versatile and adaptable to different working conditions and people;Understands clearly

the project aims, objectives and key outcomes and can articulate clearly the changes the projects will bring

in terms of objectives, results and impact, locally, nationally and regionally;.

Timescale The post will be for a period of 3 years, commencing late 2014 or early 2015. Contractual Arrangements The individual will be an employee contracted to Meteo Rwanda through the Ministry and Meteo Rwanda overall arrangements.

provide the TA to support effective delivery. Given this, Met Office will provide TA services to the

project on a non-competed basis.

120

Met Office will develop a schedule of rates for TA inputs under the Met Office contract with TA

service providers which will be clearly set out and benchmarked against similar rates and projects

elsewhere to demonstrate value for money. These benchmarks will be evidence based. For example,

presentation on request of payment vouchers/ receipts for contracts of similar nature done

elsewhere.

All consultancy fees must be without tax in Rwanda before payment.

Other non-TA procurements will be subject to Rwanda Procurement law and procedures.

Contracting arrangements are as follows, as depicted in Figure 4:

o FONERWA will contract with Meteo Rwanda for the overall project implementation.

o Meteo Rwanda will contract with Met Office for TA services, based around these ‘Principles of

Engagement’ and any requirements from FONERWA

o Meteo Rwanda shall authorise payment to Met Office for TA services from the project

account, quarterly in advance, in accordance with FONERWA financial management guidelines.

o Met Office will enter into contracts with sub-consultants and other organisations as required

to deliver the required TA once the necessary project agreements and contracts are in place

with Meteo Rwanda.

1.4 Sourcing and Selection of Technical Assistance TA will be sourced by the Met Office from their own staff and other international, regional and

national individuals and organisations as required. Where suitable national or regional expertise

exists this will be used in preference to international consultants.

For all TA inputs, Terms of Reference will be developed and agreed by the Project Manager and

Technical Coordinator.

Met Office will develop a list of pre-qualified project consultants (individuals and organisations)

covering the anticipated areas of expertise required by the project (initially based on the original

project proposal), from which TA inputs will be sourced. This will be agreed with the Meteo Rwanda.

The list will be updated periodically to include other consultants and organisations as required. It is

noted that further identification of suitable national consultants and organisations will need to be

included.

Each consultant or organisation on the list will have agreed fee rates for work on the project.

Met Office will make the necessary contractual arrangements with each of the consultants on the

pre-qualified list. The final approval of contractual terms will be discussed by the Technical

Coordinator and the Project Manager before engaging the consultant.

1.5 Financial Management and Flow of Funds Meteo Rwanda will open a project bank account for the FONERWA project funds.

Flow of funds into and out of this account are as follows, as depicted in Figure 5:

o FONERWA will transfer funds into this account on a ‘quarterly in advance’ basis on receipt and

approval of the project’s quarterly report, in line with FONERWA financial management

guidelines.

o Payment for Met Office services will be made quarterly in advance directly from this account

once approval has been given by the Project Manager and the Technical Coordinator.

o Met Office will arrange payment to sub-consultants and organisations contracted through Met

Office on successful delivery of the required outputs, in accordance with their Terms of

Reference and as agreed by both the Project Manager and Technical Coordinator.

121

o Met Office will set up an imprest account in Rwanda for the project to allow efficient payment

for minor expenses (small value items e.g. stationery, workshop costs). This account will be

replenished from the overall Met Office budget and controlled by the Technical Coordinator.

As agreed with Meteo Rwanda, the amount in this account will not exceed 1,000,000 RWF or

other figure as agreed.

Meteo Rwanda and Met Office will work together to develop a realistic estimate of TA costs for

budgeting purposes, details of which are included in the work plan, Project Document and associated

budget, as approved by the FONERWA Fund Management Team.

TA requirements and costs will be reviewed on a quarterly basis (along with overall project costs) and

budget revisions made where required and on agreement with the Project Manager, Technical

Coordinator and the FONERWA Fund Management Team.

Met Office will take advice on any Rwandese taxes and fees that may be payable.

The Met Office will take advice on the appropriate currency denomination for payment.

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1.6 Information Sharing

FONERWA

Meteo Rwanda

Met Office

Sub Consultants

Pro

vis

ion

of T

ec

hn

ica

l Assis

tan

ce

Provision of other goods and services

Contract Contract based on

Principles of Engagement and FONERWA requirements

Contract

Contract

Figure 4 - Contractual arrangements

123

Figure 4 – Flow of Funds

MINIRENA FONERWA

Account

Meteo Rwanda FONERWA

Account

Met Office

Sub Consultants

Pro

vis

ion

of T

ec

hn

ica

l Assis

tan

ce

Payment of Meteo Rwanda and other

non TA items

Met Office

minor expenses account

Figure 5- Flow of funds

124

Annex J-Terms of references for Project Manager and Technical Assistance coordinator

Terms of Reference for Project Manager– Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s Weather and Climate Service to Support Development I. PROJECT TITLE: Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s Weather and Climate

Services to Support Development.

II. POST TITLE: Project Manager

III. PROJECT DURATION: 36 Months

IV. IMPLIMENTING AGENCY: Rwanda Meteorological Agency “Meteo Rwanda”

V. FUNDING SOURCE: FONERWA

Background Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s Weather and Climate Service to Support Development’ is a 3 year project, funded through FONERWA, aimed at improving the range and uptake of Meteo Rwanda’s services while emphasizing mainly on the following outputs:

1. Meteo Rwanda to have a developed and implementable processes and techniques for the

identification of demand led weather and climate information and for promoting understanding of

appropriate applications at central, district and sub-district levels.

2. Meteo Rwanda to have attained superior capacity to design, produce and verify weather and climate

information and products, based on sound science.

3. Increased access to weather and climate information by users through a range of communication

channels.

4. Developed framework for robust economic valuation of Meteorological Information application and its

potential to influence wide user participation.

This Terms of Reference sets out the roles and responsibilities of the Project Manager position. Post Objectives The Project Manager’s primary objective is to deliver the project outcomes/outputs/deliverables as outlined in the project document Specific objectives will be:

1. To involve users in the development of demand led new services and products;

2. To make investments in improved observations;

3. To develop analytical and forecasting tools with improved accuracy and reliability required to underpin

high impact weather and climate events;

4. To improve the existing and new communications channels for use to reach many households; and

5. To heighten the importance of weather and climate information and its applications to decision making

at all levels through increased awareness of economic value of meteorological information.

125

Duties and Responsibilities General: Overall, the project delivery rests with the Project Manager on behalf of Meteo Rwanda. He/she will be assisted by the project’s Technical Coordinator and the Project Team. He/she will provide strategic management direction and support of the entire project cycle from system inception, project justification (Return on Investment, ROI), budgeting processes, technical operations, staffing, and delivery of outputs, its closure and transition. Throughout, he/she will be tracking the use of financial resources in accordance with Government of Rwanda and FONERWA monitoring and reporting systems. Specifically the Project Manager will:

1. Actively promote and support strong working relationships between Meteo Rwanda and stakeholders

at the sector, district, national and international levels;

2. Ensure that the main objectives, outputs and expected outcomes of the project are achieved in the

most efficient and cost effective manner;

3. Prepare monitoring and progress reports, work plans, budgets and expenditure statements for review

by Meteo Rwanda/ FONERWA joint management team;

4. Promote project ownership by stakeholders, Meteo Rwanda and partner institutions;

5. Support the identification of a clear and achievable realistic work plan that supports climate resilient

and green growth development initiatives;

6. Represent the project in national and international fora (WMO GFCS for example);

7. Support the uptake of climate information services through sectors, district and national level

frameworks where necessary;

8. Raise the profile of climate services and identify future funding opportunities that could support future

Meteo Rwanda development;

9. Participate in the Project Reference Group and other meetings as required;

10. Ensure coordination with other on-going or planned projects and initiatives;

11. Work in close collaboration with the Technical Coordinator and the Project Team;

12. Ensure that the Technical Assistance from Met Office leads to sustainable new processes, new services

and new products within Meteo Rwanda which are, or can be in the future, designed, implemented,

tested and approved to resulting in socio-economic development of Rwandan communities;

13. Ensure payments for Technical Assistance services is are made in accordance with the contract and on

schedule;

14. Support the development and application of weather and climate science through work plans,

workflow management, monitoring and evaluation and other relevant business processes of the

project;

15. Ensure that there is a well coordinated engagement of partners in the project, with representation

from other institutions (such as REMA, MIDMAR and the Red Cross) to ensure the mainstreaming,

coordination, and implementation of complementary project programmes and activities;

16. Ensure that the technical expertise sought by the project is of high quality, cost effective and can be

sustained after the closure of the project or withdrawal of the expert; and

17. Support the implementation of resource mobilization strategies within Meteo Rwanda to release the

resources necessary to deliver the required project outcomes.

126

Facilitation of knowledge building and knowledge sharing in Meteo Rwanda and other institutions to improve on service delivery, focusing on achievement of the following results:

1. Support knowledge management related to resilience building and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and

management across different institutions to ensure that weather and climate information is taken into

account within national knowledge management platforms and communities of practice;

2. Support the capturing of project results in knowledge products and communicate these widely at

national, district and sector levels;

3. Support the creation of a learning environment and systematic information and knowledge sharing

within Meteo Rwanda staff including, but not limited to, the Project Team;

4. Assist the Project Team in the delivery of quality knowledge management products, systems, services,

etc. supported under by project and their effective integration and compatibility with other practice

areas. Contribute to knowledge networks and communities of practice at district, national regional and

global levels.

The Project Manager will support the Project Team as follows:

1. Establish Terms of Reference for the technical and non-technical Project Team members in

collaboration with Technical Coordinator;

2. Identify and recruit suitable staff to join the Project Team;

3. Set up a project office environment and equip it with the necessary resources;

4. Closely supervise and monitor the development and performance of different project programmes and

plans that are being carried out by the project team;

5. In close collaboration with Technical Coordinator, take decisions to allocate tasks, monitor the

allocation of resources (financial and material); monitor the development of quality and risk

management plans, communication plans, stakeholders engagement plans and procurement plans in

line with other management principles;

6. In collaboration with the Technical Coordinator, monitor the implementation of tasks and roles defined

under different contracts, including the evaluation of all technical assistance inputs;

7. Support the development and tracking of the project monitoring and evaluation framework.

In line with the agreed principles of engagement, the Project Manager will support the Technical Coordinator as follows:

1. Track all of aspects of Technical Assistance and delivery as required and agreed, including the provision

of strategic advice, preparation of Terms of Referecne and introduction of best practices from the

region and elsewhere;

2. Monitor and evaluate Technical Assistance costs and budgets to ensure value for money;

3. Facilitate that the preparation of invoices by relevant offices and persons is done on schedule, real and

paid with due diligence;

4. Monitor the Technical Assistance contributions to activity planning, progress and financial reporting;

5. Monitor the production of information and learning outputs to highlight project successes and

innovations nationally and internationally.

127

Place of Work The post will be based in Meteo Rwanda headquarters in Kigali, with frequent in country travel. Meteo Rwanda will provide suitable office space with internet access and a project vehicle. Deliverables Deliverables will be as identified and agreed as required by the project in accordance with the Project Document that has been approved by the FONERWA Fund Management Team. The Project Manager will prepare a summary progress report quarterly. Time Inputs The Project manager will work full time for the duration of the FONERWA project, with 30 days leave each year and excluding weekends and public holidays. Working hours will be Meteo Rwanda standard hours. A timesheet for all time spent on the project will be maintained. Reporting Lines The Project Manager will report to Meteo Rwanda and the FONERWA Fund Management Team. The Project Manager takes full responsibility for full success of the project and in this respect; he/she must take full charge to ensure that the implementation of project activities is on schedule, cost effective and on time. The Project Manager shall ensure that project reports and statements of achievement are prepared, compiled Terms of Reference for Technical Coordinator I. PROJECT TITLE: Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s Weather and Climate

Services to Support Development.

II. POST TITLE: Technical Coordinator

III. PROJECT DURATION: 24 Months

IV. IMPLIMENTING AGENCY: Rwanda Meteorological Agency “Meteo Rwanda”

V. FUNDING SOURCE: FONERWA

Background ’Strengthening Meteo Rwanda’s Weather and Climate Service to Support Development’ is a 3 year project, funded through FONERWA, aimed at improving the range and uptake of Meteo Rwanda’s services. Overall responsibility for the project delivery rests with Meteo Rwanda with Met Office providing a supporting technical assistance role. The project management team will be based in Meteo Rwanda headquarters in Kigali and consist of a Project Manager from Meteo Rwanda and a Technical Coordinator from the Met Office. Project activities will be undertaken by Meteo Rwanda, with appropriate external support where this is required. This Terms of Reference sets out the roles and responsibilities of the Technical Coordinator position. Post Objectives The Technical Coordinator role has two primary objectives:

1. To coordinate and manage all aspects of technical assistance to the project; and

2. To provide technical assistance and support to the technical or innovative areas of project

delivery.

The Technical Coordinator will work closely with the Project Manager in all aspects of the work, and provide support to project management where required and relating to technical assistance matters .

128

The Technical Coordinator will actively promote and support a strong working relationship between Meteo Rwanda and the Met Office.

Duties and Responsibilities

The Technical Coordinator will be responsible for:

i. Coordinating all technical assistance aspects of the project to support effective and efficient delivery

with can demonstrate value for money;

ii. Delivery of some aspects of technical assistance, including provision of strategic direction of the

project;

iii. Ensuring that best practice developing in the region and elsewhere is incorporated into the project,

where appropriate;

iv. Project reporting and review where this related to technical assistance;

v. Contributing to the monitoring, evaluation and cross learning aspects of the project;

vi. Developing and maintaining relationships within the Government of Rwanda; and

vii. Developing and maintaining relationships with the donors community to raise the profile of

meteorological services and identify new streams of funding.

At all time he/she will work in close coordination with the Project Manager. At the start of the assignment he/she will review the ToR with the Project Manager and agree lines of communication and reporting. To ensure clarity, Meteo Rwanda staff will be informed of the agreed arrangements.

The tasks that the Technical Coordinator will be expected to undertake are likely to include, but not be limited to:

Identification of technical assistance requirements on all aspects of the project and developing and

agreeing Terms of Reference for each aspect;

Identifying suitable technical assistance from Met office or other individuals or organisations, including

those based in Rwanda and regionally;

Contract management, monitoring and evaluation of all technical assistance inputs;

Provision of support to the development and tracking of the project monitoring and evaluation

framework;

Delivery of aspects of technical assistance as required and agreed, including provision of strategic advice

and introduction of best practice from the region and elsewhere;

Monitoring of technical assistance costs and budgets;

Preparation of invoices;

Contributing technical assistance aspects to activity planning, progress and financial reporting;

Production of information and learning outputs to highlight project successes and innovations nationally

and internationally. Representing and linking the project in national and international fora (WMO GFCS for

example);

Build and maintain relationships with Government of Rwanda. Promote the uptake of climate information

services nationally;

Build and maintain relationships with donor communities. Raise the profile of climate services and identify

future funding opportunities that could support future Meteo Rwanda development;

Participate in the Project Reference Group and other meeting as required; and

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Ensure coordination with other ongoing or planned projects and initiatives.

Place of Work The post will be based in Meteo Rwanda headquarters in Kigali, with frequent in country travel. Meteo Rwanda will provide suitable office space with internet access and a project vehicle. Deliverables

Deliverables will be as identified and agreed, as required by the project in accordance with the Project Document that has been approved by the FONERWA Fund Management Team.

The Technical Coordinator will prepare a (max) two side summary progress report each month.

Time Inputs

The Technical Coordinator will work approximately 180 days per year on the FONERWA project.

Working hours will be Meteo Rwanda standard hours or as agreed with the Project Manager.

A timesheet for all time spent on the project will be maintained.

Reporting Lines

The Technical Coordinator will report to the Project Manger on all aspects of the FONERWA funded project. Throughout the project, normal Met Office Line Management arrangements will remain in place for non-project related issues.

Experience

The Technical Coordinator will have at least 10 years’ experience in weather and climate. The following qualifications and skills will be desirable:

Experience of partnership working in project design and management;

Good communication (verbal and written) and strong interpersonal skills and ability to work in a team;

Excellent analytical and writing skills;

Results oriented and able to meet strict timelines for outputs;

Able and willing to travel and work in remote areas and in challenging environments;

Self-motivated, versatile and adaptable to different cultures and people

Good working knowledge of MS Office applications (Word, Excel), email/internet.

Competent in the use of computers and standard computer software.

Timescale The post will be for a period of 2 years, commencing late 2014 or early 2015. Short term inputs may be provided before this time.

Contractual Arrangements

The individual will be a Met Office employee, contracted to Meteo Rwanda for the project in accordance with the terms of the Met Office’s overall arrangements for the project.