National Hazard Profile for Laos PDR

Developing a National Risk Profile of Lao PDR

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Landslide UXO Earthquake Flood Epidemics

Drought Storm

DEVELOPING A NATIONAL RISK PROFILE OF LAO PDR

Lao PDR

Part 1: Hazard Assessment


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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Table of Contents ....................................................................................................................................... 3

List of Figures ............................................................................................................................................. 5

List of Table ................................................................................................................................................ 7

Abbreviation ............................................................................................................................................... 8

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................... 9

1 Project Background ......................................................................................................................... 11

1.1 Background .................................................................................................................................... 11

1.2 Project Objectives and Statement of Work .................................................................................... 11 1.2.1 Project Objective .................................................................................................................... 11 1.2.2 Scope of Assignment ............................................................................................................. 11 1.2.3 Project Constraints ................................................................................................................. 12 1.2.4 Challenges in Executing the Project ...................................................................................... 12 1.2.5 Expected Benefits to the Nation ............................................................................................. 12

1.3 Project Staheholders ....................................................................................................................... 13

1.4 Methodology .................................................................................................................................. 13

1.5 Project Outcomes ........................................................................................................................... 16

2 Baseline Data and Information ....................................................................................................... 17

2.1 Administrative Divison and Geography of Lao PDR .................................................................... 17

2.2 Population of Lao PDR .................................................................................................................. 18

2.3 Climate and Topography of Lao PDR ........................................................................................... 19

2.4 Land use / Land cover .................................................................................................................... 20

2.5 Natural Disaster Profile of Lao PDR ............................................................................................. 21

2.6 Disaster Database at Provincial Level ........................................................................................... 24

2.7 Trend of Disaster in Lao PDR ........................................................................................................ 25

2.8 Source of Data and Information ..................................................................................................... 25

2.9 Infrastructure .................................................................................................................................. 26 2.9.1 Education ............................................................................................................................... 26 2.9.2 Health ..................................................................................................................................... 27 2.9.3 Transportation ........................................................................................................................ 28 2.9.4 Housing .................................................................................................................................. 29

2.9.5 Irrigation and Water Resources ............................................................................................. 31 2.9.6 Fisheries ................................................................................................................................. 31 2.9.7 Agriculture ............................................................................................................................. 32 2.9.8 Economy and Employment ................................................................................................... 32 2.9.9 Tourism .................................................................................................................................. 33

2.10 Telecommunication ................................................................................................................... 34

2.11 Power ......................................................................................................................................... 34

2.12 Mineral and Quarry ................................................................................................................... 35

3 Hazard Assessment .......................................................................................................................... 37

3.1 Earthquake Hazard Assessment ..................................................................................................... 37 3.1.1 Map content ........................................................................................................................... 37 3.1.2 Application of maps in disaster risk management ................................................................. 37 3.1.3 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 37 3.1.4 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 38 3.1.5 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 38 3.1.6 Analysis of hazard assessment .............................................................................................. 38 3.1.7 Special remarks ...................................................................................................................... 39 3.1.8 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 39

3.2 Flood Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................. 41 3.2.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 41 3.2.2 Map Content .......................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.3 Application of maps in disaster risk management ................................................................. 41 3.2.4 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 41 3.2.5 Methodology for Flood hazard mapping ............................................................................... 42 3.2.6 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 42 3.2.7 Analysis of hazard assessment .............................................................................................. 43 3.2.8 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 45

3.3 Landslide Hazard Assessment ....................................................................................................... 54 3.3.1 Map content ........................................................................................................................... 54 3.3.2 Application of maps in disaster risk management ................................................................. 54 3.3.3 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 54 3.3.4 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 54 3.3.5 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 54 3.3.6 Analysis of hazard assessment .............................................................................................. 55 3.3.7 Special remarks ...................................................................................................................... 56 3.3.8 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 56

3.4 Epidemic Hazard Assessment ....................................................................................................... 58 3.4.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 58 3.4.2 Map Content .......................................................................................................................... 58


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3.4.3 Application of Disease Hazard maps ..................................................................................... 58 3.4.4 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 58 3.4.5 Special Remarks ..................................................................................................................... 58 3.4.6 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 59 3.4.7 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 59 3.4.8 Analysis of Disease Hazards .................................................................................................. 60 3.4.9 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 60

3.5 UXO Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................... 67 3.5.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 67 3.5.2 Map content ............................................................................................................................ 67 3.5.3 Application of UXO hazard map ........................................................................................... 67 3.5.4 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 67 3.5.5 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 68 3.5.6 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 68 3.5.7 Analysis of UXO hazard assessment & mapping .................................................................. 68 3.5.8 Spacial Remarks ..................................................................................................................... 68

3.6 Drought Hazard Assessment .......................................................................................................... 70 3.6.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 70 3.6.2 Map Content ........................................................................................................................... 70 3.6.3 Application of drought hazard map in disaster risk management .......................................... 70 3.6.4 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 70 3.6.5 Spacial Remarks ..................................................................................................................... 70 3.6.6 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 71 3.6.7 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 73 3.6.8 Analysis of drought hazard assessment ................................................................................. 73 3.6.9 Conclusion and Recommendations ........................................................................................ 80

3.7 Storm Hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................. 83 3.7.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 83 3.7.2 Map Content ........................................................................................................................... 83 3.7.3 Application of Storm map in disaster risk management ........................................................ 84 3.7.4 Data sources ........................................................................................................................... 84 3.7.5 Methodology .......................................................................................................................... 84 3.7.6 How to read the map .............................................................................................................. 85 3.7.7 Analysis of hazard assessment ............................................................................................... 85 3.7.8 Recommendations .................................................................................................................. 88

3.8 Multi-hazard Assessment ............................................................................................................... 89 3.8.1 Background ............................................................................................................................ 89 3.8.2 Application of Multi-hazard Assessment (Multi-HA) ........................................................... 89 3.8.3 Scenarios and Criteria for Multi Hazard Assessment ............................................................ 89 3.8.4 Methodology for Multi Hazard Assessment .......................................................................... 90 3.8.5 Analysis of Multi-Hazard Assessment ................................................................................... 90

3.8.6 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 90

Reference .................................................................................................................................................. 97


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LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 1.1 Flowchart showing process of Hazard-vulnerability and risk assessment for Laos PDR ........ 14

Figure 1.2 Process for Hazards Risk Assessment ...................................................................................... 15

Figure 2.1 Administrative map of Lao PDR (Source: (NSC, 2005)) ......................................................... 17

Figure 2.4 Population Density at district-wise in Lao PDR (Source : (NSC, 2005)) ................................ 18

Figure 2.5 Population Density of Lao PDR at District level (Source: (NSC, 2005)) ................................ 18

Figure 2.2 Province-wise distribution of Population of Lao PDR ( Source : (NSC, 2005) ) ..................... 18

Figure 2.3 Population Pyramid of Lao PDR, 2005 ( Source : (NSC, 2005) ) ............................................ 18

Figure 2.6 Topography and elevation map of Lao PDR ............................................................................ 19

Figure 2.7 Land use type in Lao PDR (Source : Digital Land Use Map, (DoG, 2009)) ........................... 20

Figure 2.8 Land use map of Lao PDR (Source: (DoG, 2009)) .................................................................. 20

Figure 2.9 Impact of UXO in Lao PDR ..................................................................................................... 23

Figure 2.10 Impact of Fire in Sayaburi ...................................................................................................... 24

Figure 2.11 Impact of Storm in Lao PDR .................................................................................................. 24

Figure 2.12 Numbers of education institutes per thousand students (Source: (LDS, 2007)) .................... 26

Figure 2.13 Map showing province-wise distribution of school in Lao PDR (Source: (NGD, 2010)) ..... 27

Figure 2.14 Map showing the province-wise distribution of health institute in Lao PDR (Source: (NGD, 2010)) ......................................................................................................................................................... 27

Figure 2.15 Number of beds for every thousand population (Source: (LDS, 2007)) ................................ 28

Figure 2.16 Freight traffic (passenger-km) different transport system (Source: (LDS, 2007)) ................. 28

Figure 2.17 Passenger traffic (passenger-km) different transport system (Source: (LDS, 2007)) ............ 28

Figure 2.18 Map showing the province-wise density of road in Lao PDR (Source: (NGD, 2010)) ......... 29

Figure 2.19 Household living in houses in terms of access to road (Source: (LDS, 2007)) ...................... 29

Figure 2.20 Map showing the distribution of housing roof type (Source: (Census, 2005)) ...................... 30

Figure 2.21 Map showing the distribution of housing wall type (Source: (Census, 2005)) ...................... 30

Figure 2.22 Dry season irrigated area by region (Source: (DOA, 2008)). ................................................. 31

Figure 2.23 Production of inland capture fish in Lao PDR (Source: (FAO, 2002)) ................................. 31

Figure 2.24 Crop production by type in Lao PDR (Source: (DOA, 2008)). ............................................. 32

Figure 2.25 Contribution of major three sectors to growth of GDP (Source: (ADB, 2010)). ................... 32

Figure 2.26 Employed and unemployed economically active population (Source: (Census, 2005)) ....... 33

Figure 2.27 Population engaged in different employment sectors (Source: (Census, 2005)) ................... 33

Figure 2.28 Number of tourists entered in the Lao PRD from 1995-2007 (Source: (LDS, 2007)) ........... 33

Figure 2.29 Distribution of tourists visited from different region in 2007 (Source: (LDS, 2007)) ........... 33

Figure 2.30 Numbers of telephone by sector in 2007 (Source: (LDS, 2007)) .......................................... 34

Figure 2.31 Map showing the distribution of hydropower dams in different provinces (Source: (NGD, 2010)) ......................................................................................................................................................... 34

Figure 2.32 Power generation and export from 2001-08 .......................................................................... 35

Figure 2.33 Export value of minerals from 2000-2004 in Lao PDR (Source: (UNDP, 2006)) ................ 35

Figure 3.1 Earthquake events in Lao PDR (based on USGS catalogue) ................................................... 37

Figure 3.2 Earthquake hazard map of Lao PDR ........................................................................................ 40

Figure 3.3 Damage Cost of Flooding in Lao PDR from 1966 to 2008 ( Source: (Vision-RI, 2009)) ....... 41

Figure 3.4 Flowchart showing the methodology for flood hazard assessment ......................................... 42

Figure 3.5 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Ngiap River ................................................ 43

Figure 3.6 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Xan River ................................................... 43

Figure 3.7 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Ou River ..................................................... 44

Figure 3.8 Flood inundation area in different depth of Se Bangfai River ................................................. 44

Figure 3.9 Flood inundation area in different depth of Xe Banghiang River ............................................ 44

Figure 3.10 Flood inundation area in different depth of Xe Kong River .................................................. 44

Figure 3.11 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Ngum River .............................................. 45

Figure 3.12 Flood inundation area in different depth of Xe Don River .................................................... 45

Figure 3.13 Nam Ngiap flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period .................................... 46

Figure 3.14 Nam Xan flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period ....................................... 47


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Figure 3.15 Nam Ou flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period ......................................... 48

Figure 3.16 Se Bangfai flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period ..................................... 49

Figure 3.17 Xe Banghiang flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period ................................ 50

Figure 3.18 Xe Kong flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period ........................................ 51

Figure 3.19 Nam Ngum flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period .................................... 52

Figure 3.20 Xe Don flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period .......................................... 53

Figure 3.21 Distribution of landslide susceptibility in Lao PDR. .............................................................. 55

Figure 3.22 High susceptibility percentage vs provinc area crossplot ....................................................... 55

Figure 3.23 Landslide hazard susceptibility map of Lao PDR .................................................................. 57

Figure 3.24 Accumulative number of cases in year 2004 to 2008 in Lao PDR ......................................... 58

Figure 3.25 Methodology chart of Epidemic ............................................................................................. 59

Figure 3.26 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Acute Bloody Diarrhea ................................ 61

Figure 3.27 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Acute Respiratory Tract Infection ................ 61

Figure 3.28 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Acute Watery Diarrhea ................................ 62

Figure 3.29 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Dengue Fever ............................................... 62

Figure 3.30 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever ......................... 63

Figure 3.31 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Food Poisoning ............................................. 63

Figure 3.32 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Hepatitis ....................................................... 64

Figure 3.33 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Malaria ......................................................... 64

Figure 3.34 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Measles ......................................................... 65

Figure 3.35 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Typhoid Fever .............................................. 65

Figure 3.36 Map showing multiple disease in Lao PDR ........................................................................... 66

Figure 3.37 Survey of Victims and Accidents based on UXO type ( Source: (NRA, 2008)) ................... 67

Figure 3.38 Flowchart showing the methodology for UXO hazard assessment ........................................ 68

Figure 3.39 Map showing the distribution of UXO in Lao PDR ( Source: (NRA, 2008)) ........................ 69

Figure 3.40 Map showing the density of UXO in Lao PDR ( Source: (NRA, 2008)) ............................... 69

Figure 3.41 Geographical distributions and data availability of the stations used in the analysis ............ 71

Figure 3.42 Methodology of drought index computation using SPI ......................................................... 72

Figure 3.43 Moderate drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept. and (d) April-March (Annual). ....................................................................................................................... 76

Figure 3.44 Severe drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept. and (d) April-March (Annual). ............................................................................................................................... 77

Figure 3.45 Extreme drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept and (d) April-March (Annual). ....................................................................................................................... 78

Figure 3.46 Moderate to extreme drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept. and (d) April-March (Annual). .............................................................................................. 79

Figure 3.47 Decadal variation of Moderate to extreme (decadal) drought susceptibility maps for three stations in (a) Dry Season and (b) Wet Season (The lower, middle and upper circles in each station corresponds to 1st (1980-1989), 2nd (1990-1999) and last (2000-2009) decade respectively) ....... 80

Figure 3.48 Drought occurrence in dry season .......................................................................................... 81

Figure 3.49 Drought occurrence in wet season ......................................................................................... 81

Figure 3.50 Drought occurrence in June to September ............................................................................. 81

Figure 3.51 Drought occurrence in April to March (Annual) ................................................................... 81

Figure 3.52 Storm tracks of past event from year 1951 – 2006 (Source: (TMD, 2006)) .......................... 83

Figure 3.53 Storm tracks of past event in Lo PDR from year 1979 – 2009 .............................................. 83

Figure 3.54 Flowchart showing the methodology of storms mapping ...................................................... 84

Figure 3.55 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale ............................................................................................. 85

Figure 3.56 Showing Percentage of Area Affected by Storm in different return period A)10 years return period B) 20 years return period C) 30 years return period and D) 50 years return period ...................... 86

Figure 3.57 Storm distribution in Lao PDR for Different return period from year 1979-2009 ................ 87

Figure 3.58 Method for multi-hazard assessment (Scenario based) .......................................................... 90

Figure 3.59 Map showing the number and type of hazard at provincial-wise (scenario based) ............... 91

Figure 3.60 Map showing the number of hazard at district-wise (scenario based) ................................... 91


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LIST OF TABLE

Table 2.1 Border of Lao PDR .................................................................................................................... 17

Table 2.2 Administrative province of Lao PDR ( Source: (NSC, 2005)) .................................................. 17

Table 2.3 Distribution of land use types in Lao PDR (Area)(Source : Digital Land Use Map, (DoG, 2009)) ......................................................................................................................................................... 20

Table 2.4 Natural disaster profile of Laos PDR (Source: (EM-DAT, 2010)) ............................................ 21

Table 2.5 Damage caused by floods in Lao PDR from 1966-2008(Source: (Vision-RI, 2009)) ............... 22

Table 2.6 Drought events and damage in Lao PDR(Source: (Vision-RI, 2009)) ...................................... 22

Table 2.7 Drought profile of Sayaburi ( Source: (DesInventar, 2009)) ..................................................... 24

Table 2.8 Animal Diseases in Sayaburi ( Source: (DesInventar, 2009)) ................................................... 24

Table 2.9 Human exposure profile of Lao PDR ....................................................................................... 25

Table 2.10 Economic exposure profile of Lao PDR ................................................................................. 25

Table 2.11 Source of data and information ................................................................................................ 25

Table 3.1 Earthquake hazard zone scale .................................................................................................... 38

Table 3.2 Distribution of Seismic Hazard Zone in Lao PDR .................................................................... 38

Table 3.3 Color table of Landslide susceptibility ...................................................................................... 54

Table 3.4 Landslide hazard susceptibility percentage per province .......................................................... 56

Table 3.5 List of meteorological stations used for analysis ....................................................................... 71

Table 3.6 Duration used for drought indices analysis ................................................................................ 72

Table 3.7 Summary of drought occurrence and its coverage ..................................................................... 73

Table 3.8 Probability of drought occurrence (%) at different stations ....................................................... 73

Table 3.9 Threshold rainfall values (mm) at different stations .................................................................. 74

Table 3.10 Moderate drought susceptible areas ......................................................................................... 75

Table 3.11 Summary of drought occurrence and its coverage ................................................................... 80

Table 3.12 Criteria for multi-hazards assessment scenario ........................................................................ 89

Table 3.13 Number of hazards at provincial-wise (scenario based) .......................................................... 92

Table 3.14 Number of hazards at district-wise (scenario based) ............................................................... 93


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ABBREVIATION

ABD Acute Bloody Diarrhea ACD Asian Cooperation Dialogue ADB Asian Development Bank ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Center ARTI Acute Respiratory Tract Infection AWD Acute Watery Diarrhea CAgM Commission for Agriculture Meteorology CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CTG Consultation Technical Group DEM Digital Elevation Model DHF Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever DMG Department of Mines and Geology DMH Department of Meteorology and Hydrology DOA Department Of Agriculture DoG Department of Geology DoP Department of Planning FAO Food and Agriculture Organization GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GRID Global Resource Information Database JTWC Joint Typhoon Warning Center Lao PDR Lao People's Democratic Republic LDS Lao Department of Statistics LNMC Lao National Mekong Committee MAF Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry MEM Ministry of Energy and Mines MIH Ministry of Indutry and Handicraft MMI Modified Mercalli Intensity MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment NAFRI National Agricultural and Forestry Research Institute NCDC National Climatic Data Center NDMC National Drought Mitigation Centre NDMO National Disaster Management Office NGD National Geography Department NGO Non Governmental Organization NOAA National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration NRA National Regulation Authority NSC National Statistic Center NTA National Tourism Authority OCHA Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs PTI Public Work and Transport Institute

SPI Standard Precipitation Index TMD Thai Meteorological Department TWG Technical Working Group UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNOCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs USACE United States Army Corps Engineering USGS United States Geological Survey UXO Unexploded Ordnance WMO World Meteorological Organization WREI Water Resources and Environment Institute


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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Hazard Assessment report will serve as one of the basis that will support for making appropriate disaster risk-reduction strategies and prioritizing them for Lao PDR country's short and long term development planning. This report provides analyses and assessment of seven potential hazards in Lao PDR. The seven hazards include earthquake, flood, landslide, epidemic, UXO, drought and storm. The methodology used in hazard assessment study is primarily divided into two main phases including baseline data collection and hazard scenario development & mapping.

The report has chapter organization as follow: Chapter one presented the overview of project, project partners, key stakeholders and sources of data for the project. The chapter further explains the constraints and challenges in implementation. Chapter two presents demographic, physical infrastructure, socio-economic and disaster profile of the country at provincial level. Chapter Three presents the details of hazard assessment and mapping for flood, earthquake landslide, epidemics, UXOs, draught and storms. All the findings are presented in maps and tables, which can be referred in each hazard assessment section. The hazard assessment chapter presents the overview, past work in respective hazard assessment, brief methodology, how to refer the hazard maps and analysis of hazard maps with set of recommendations.

The study reveals that Lao PDR is prone to various geological, hydro-meteorological and manmade hazards with specific degree of severity. A brief note on each hazard is described below:

(i) Earthquake: The earthquake hazard maps have been developed using MMI scale. The hazard assessment is based on earthquake intensity map developed by UNOCHA. The result shows that one-fourth area of Lao PDR is falling in high earthquake hazard zone. The areas in high earthquake hazard zone are include Xayabury, Bokeo, Oudomxay, Luangnamtha and Phongsaly provinces. More than 30% area of the country is lying in moderate earthquake hazard zone, while 43.62 % area is falling in low earthquake risk zone.

(ii) Flood: Flood hazard maps have been developed for most frequent flood prone river basins. Eight rivers have been identified and determined for flood hazard and risk assessment in accordance with the past history of flood as well as in consultation with the flood- related agencies. These Rivers are Nan Ou, Nam Ngum, Nam Ngiap, Nam Xan, Se Bangfai, Xe Banghiang, Xe Don and Xe Kong. Results show that several districts located in the eight river basins are prone to flood with different water level and area of inundation.

(iii) Landslide: Larger part of the country is falling under low to medium landslide susceptibility zones. Only 5.24 % of the country is prone to very high and high of landslide susceptibility. These high susceptible zones are localized in south east and central part of Lao PDR.

(iv) Epidemic: Among the 10 disease, the trend shows that Acute Bloody Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Tract Infection, and Acute Watery Diarrhea cases are increasing, while the trend of Malaria is decreasing.

(v) UXO: Several districts of Khamuane and Savannaket Province are having the very density of UXO ranging 2 – 4 of UXO per square kilometer. Several other districts in Huaphanh, Xienghuang, Saravane, Sekong and Attapeu have also been identified as area with high density of UXO.

(vi) Drought: Due to limited availability of data, only 1993 to 2008 climatological data is considered for draught assessment. SPI was used for drought analysis at different time scale. It is found that drought of all categories occur in Lao PDR in all four durations. Moderate drought frequently occurs in all the durations but severe and extreme droughts are less common except for severe drought in dry season where it has occurred many times. Drought was relatively more frequent in first and third 5-year period of analysis while there was lull in between.

Probability of occurrence of drought of any category is found to be highest (27%) at Phalan in dry season where as it is found to be highest (25-27%) at Phiengluang in other three durations, however it is to be noted that both the stations contains only about one decade of data. Because of data paucity in coverage and large variability in data availability amongst stations it was difficult to make conclusive statement on drought prone area however southern parts central region and northern parts of central and southern parts of northern regions appear as drought susceptible areas in dry and wet seasons respectively.

(vii) Storm: Storm hazard assessment has been carried out for four storm return period maps ( 10,

20, 30 and 50 years return period). The assessment analyzes area covered in various provinces due to storms. Findings show that Khammouane province is the most vulnerable province in the country. For 50 years return period, class 3 (178 – 209 km/hr) storm is expected to hit some area of Khammouane Province. The hazard assessment is based on collection of relevant authentic data from various focal departments and agencies. The assessment largely depends upon precision of data quality and methoodlogy used. For assessment purpose, well established technical methodologies are used and further validated with focal departments.

During the implementation following constraints were observed.

(i) For the hazard assessment, several data and information on geological, hydro-meteorological, Geo-morphological data, epidemiology, and UXO were available in decrete fashion.. This restricted the robustness of the hazard modeling. The additional attempts were made to generate and modify the data/ information based on available data suiting to the modeling requirements. Development of methodology of the hazard assessment largely dependent upon availability of data and resources

(ii) The data available with various departments and agencies are usually not relevant to the study requirements. The data are not consistent in nature and requires rigorous processing. With limited resources, the analyses and assessment was carried out, which were largely dependent on secondary source data/information and existing validated data. As the findings depend upon the data available for the country, which is, for certain hazards, very limited and can only give rough reference for the assessment, thus the accuracy of the result might be affected


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The report further recommends the following:

• The report has identified multi-hazard prone districts and provinces. It is recommended for focal departments to conduct detailed studies for multiple hazard provinces at province level.

• The hazard prone provinces should be given first priority for disaster mitigation interventions. It is recommended that the focal departments, agencies and ministries should give special emphasis for disaster mitigation in multiple hazard provinces/districts. However it is necessary to check the exposure of lives and necessary infrastructure in multiple hazard provinces/districts.

• The multi-hazard map should be the base map for all necessary disaster risk reduction intervention.

• In order to get a clear and more detailed picture of the potential hazards in Lao PDR, it is recommended to integrate and utilize the networking system of hazard monitoring and observation which include the neighboring countries of Lao PDR, such as: Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and China.


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1 PROJECT BACKGROUND

1.1 BACKGROUND

The Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC), in association with Public Works and Transport Institute was awarded to deliver consulting services to develop a preliminary National Disaster Risk Profile of Lao PDR. ADPC team worked in close association with National Disaster Management Office (NDMO), and other national agencies in all aspects of project implementation. Close linkages with National Disaster Management Office, Water Resource and Environment Agency, MAF, MEM, MOH etc ensured through ongoing partnership arrangements and previous experience in working with those organizations, to facilitate secondary data collection, hazard specific information exchange and sharing of any other data relevant to the study. In addition assistance was sort from other initiatives such as ADPC implemented LANGOKA project (funded by Save the Children Australia), Project implemented by World Food Program to build complementarities as some of the outputs of such project can provide useful inputs to the Project on National Disaster Risk Profile of Lao PDR.

The project covered various technical and management activities including review of ongoing studies and activities related to various hydro-meteorological, geological and biological hazards, establish hazard assessment methodology, approach for vulnerability assessment, exposure assessment for various production, physical infrastructure, human and social sector and environment sectors, economic projections of losses caused by existing major hazards. The major outcome showed the way to identify institutional gaps, prioritizing the disaster risk reduction, options for institutional measures etc.

The study provided opportunity to share existing information, data and resources in developing comprehensive hazard assessment. Several recent studies have been carried out by various technical and scientific research organizations in hazard assessment at micro-level for pilot areas. However, the preliminary assessment on data availability had indicated that hazard maps for most type of hazards are not available at national or regional level. The present study collated all existing information and studies, and evolve the methodology at national level, supported by robust and well proved technical tools.

1.2 PROJECT OBJECTIVES AND STATEMENT OF WORK

1.2.1 PROJECT OBJECTIVE

The findings of the National Risk Profile of Lao PDR, including the national risk profiling for the country will create the basis for incorporating appropriate risk-reduction strategies and prioritizing them into the country’s development planning by the Government of Laos. It is expected that the findings of the proposed study will allow decision makers to prioritize risk mitigation investments and measures to strengthen the emergency preparedness and response mechanisms for reducing the future losses and damages due to natural disasters. It would further assist the donor agencies, development partners etc., in adoption of a risk reduction strategy for Laos through appropriate financing mechanisms.

The main objectives of the proposed study was to

• To map out all hazard prone areas and respective hazard zones based on historic disaster events • To identify and assess the exposure of people, property, critical facilities, infrastructure and

economic activities to those hazards • To preliminary access the potential damage state of the identified elements at risk with reference to

expected hazard intensities • To create preliminary national multi-hazard profiles in terms of hazard and sector to identify

priorities for National Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies. Risk should be expressed as potential losses (human and financial) rather than relative levels of risk.

1.2.2 SCOPE OF ASSIGNMENT

The scope of the project is as below:

• Development of multi-hazard profiles;

o Systematic description of the physical characteristics of hazards and of various descriptors including sources of threats, magnitude, duration, , extent and intensity field(spatial distribution)

o Collection of hazard zoning maps and plausible hazard event scenario for the major hazards prevailing in Laos i.e. wind storms, floods, droughts, earthquakes and UXO

• Inventory of multi-sectoral exposures for the following elements at risks;

o Population in terms of poverty and vulnerability

o Buildings in terms of their structure type and functionality

o Livelihoods

o Critical facilities

o infrastructure

o Development of a comprehensive national risk profile, which reflects multi-hazard and multi-sectoral principles; and

• Development of a Comprehensive national risk profile, which reflects multi-hazard and multi-sectoral principals. The analysis unit for risk aggregation is proposed to be at least at the province level under the jurisdiction of the Central Government

• Identification of national high-risk areas in terms of different hazard type and sectors and relevant disaster risk reduction and response options.


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1.2.3 PROJECT CONSTRAINTS

(iii) Resource Constraints: The project has been allocated with limited funding to cover project studies and scope. Not all data available with various departments and agencies are relevant to the study requirements. The data are not consistent in nature, requires rigorous processing. It would have been better, if most priority disasters could have been studied in more detailed manner. With limited resources, the consultant will be largely dependent on secondary source data and information. The consultant ensured collection of data from various authentic sources ranging from government ministries, departments, agencies, research and technical organizations. The project studies generated information and data based on secondary, existing validated data, without field based data collection.

(iv) Time limitation: The time allocated for the study project was limited to 6 months. In stated time frame, extensive hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment along with risk analysis was carried out. The project outputs largely depended on the data availability by the national agencies. Usually the national agencies have their own rules and regulations in data sharing and the Project Team ensured that all agencies extended cooperation in releasing data. Since Time span for the study project was less, project team was under pressure to collect material in time, process them to a desired level in order to ensure qualitative outcome within this limited time frame.

(v) Precision Standards: The study project ensured quality outcome with considerable precision. In general, hazard assessment was carried out using scientific tools, are validated with field checks. Since the time and resources were limited, consultant validated outcome of the hazard map with well established available data and information. The outcome was validated using statistical tools and other relevant methods. For the said study, consultant developed the products at suitable scale.

(vi) Availability of data: For assessment of hazards, vulnerability and associated risk, several geological, hydro-meteorological, Geo-morphological data, socio-economic data, census data and database of infrastructure was required. Several information were available, however, large data was missing. This restricted the robustness of the hazard modeling. The consultant attempted to generate and modify the data/ information based on available data suiting to the modeling requirements.

(vii) Technical methodology : Development of methodology of the hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment was largely dependent upon availability of data and resources

(viii) Classification of hazard for modeling: Based on dataset, hazards developed by the concerned departments, it has been found that earthquake, floods, drought, landslide, epidemic and UXO are major problems. The consultant developed Hazard, vulnerability and risk mapping for above said hazards.

(ix) Loss Estimation Data: The data compiled by various departments for economic losses are based on rough estimates. This may not provide fare projection of economic losses. Efforts will be made to develop economic loss based of scientific model. The available data was used for validation.

1.2.4 CHALLENGES IN EXECUTING THE PROJECT

(i) Availability of data: The availability of data is the greatest challenge. Laos has carried out remarkable activities regarding data generation, which is available in fragments with various departments. Collecting the data from various agencies within stipulated date, was one of the key challenges for executing the project as all source agencies have their own regulations in data sharing.

(ii) Meeting with Stakeholders: NDMO had formed a Technical Working Group (TWG) comprising of various relevant technical agencies, departments and ministries to provide necessary technical support. They reviewed and evaluated the approach adopted by the project team to meet the objectives. However, this TWG meetings was organized at the end of important milestones of the project and success of such meetings was due to commitment of members.

(iii) Cooperation with Various Stakeholders: The study projects collected data from various nodal stakeholders. Due to individual or administrative policy, project team found difficulty in getting cooperation from stakeholders.

1.2.5 EXPECTED BENEFITS TO THE NATION

(i) At present condition, several agencies have carried out risk assessment for various parts of the country at different scale. The current study outcomes will enhance the qualitative and quantitative aspects of agencies works. The study developed comprehensive risk assessment profile for the whole country at province level.

(ii) The study project attempted to develop tools for physical vulnerability assessment of various assets at national level. This will further help in identifying most vulnerable sector and necessary measures to reduce the impacts.

(iii) The national sector specific risk projection will assist the concerned stakeholders to prioritize disaster risk reduction strategy.

(iv) The study will bring out existing gaps in disaster risk reduction strategies. The study also recommended measures to improve decision making capacity.

(v) The outcome will be useful for mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in various sectors at different level.

(vi) The assessment will help district and regional decision makers, policy makers and development agencies for preparing disaster risk reduction planning

(vii) Based on the outcome of the studies, the government may take necessary action for capacity building for disaster risk reduction.

(viii) The studies proposed robust methodology in hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment in close collaboration with national technical departments and agencies. The level of assessment is from national to province level. These models can be utilized for replicating in other regions and countries


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(ix) The study outcome will evolve economic losses profile caused by various major hazards on defined physical and social assets. This will help in allocating budget for disaster risk reduction for various vital infrastructure and assets.

(x) The outcome of the study will hopefully facilitate financial support from international organizations for measures and actions that reduce the risk associated with natural hazards in Laos PDR.

1.3 PROJECT STAHEHOLDERS

The project associated three types of stakeholders. Those were study project team, focal institutions and beneficiary (other associated agencies, the World Bank, UNDP etc.)

Study team included technical staff members from Asian Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) and Public Work and Transport Institute (PTI). Apart from these agencies, there was team of national and international professional expertise in economic modeling, seismic analysis, statistics, flood modeling.

National disaster Management Office was the focal point for advice, direction and evaluation as per the defined terms and reference. The consultation technical group (CTG) was formed which included senior representation of various focal departments. The UNDP was the observer during the study period. ADPC convened and facilitated the logistics as per the requirement.

The project team has identified beneficiaries. The role of beneficiary stakeholders is to provide necessary data and information for assessment of economic impact of respective sectors. The large group of stakeholders included Water Resources and Environment Institute (WERI), Department of Labour & Social Welfare, Remote Sensing Center, Water Resources and Environment Institute (WERI), , WREA, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology , WREA, Lao National Mekong Committee (LNMC), Technical Support Division, Mekong River Commission Secretariat, National Geographic Department , Department of Planning (DoP), Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Statistical Division, DoP, MAF, National Agricultural and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), MAF, National Educational Research Institute, Ministry of Education National Statistics Department, Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), Department of Planning, Ministry of Planning and Investment, Department of Energy, Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), GIS Division, Department of Geography, National University of Laos , Center for Laboratory and Epidemiology, Department of Hygiene and Prevention, Ministry of Health, National Agricultural and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), MAF.

1.4 METHODOLOGY The methodology used in this study is primarily divided into three main phases, as follow:

• Baseline data collection and hazard scenario development phase • Vulnerability and susceptibility Assessment and mapping phase • Exposure and risk analysis phase

The final result of hazard and risk assessment formed the genesis for national level disaster risk mitigation strategy. The methodology has been represented into flow chart, which may be referred at Figure 1.1 and Figure 1.2 show the subcomponents of the main activities. Further detail methodology of each hazard will be presented in chapter 3.


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Figure 1.1 Flowchart showing process of Hazard-vulnerability and risk assessment for Laos PDR


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Figure 1.2 Process for Hazards Risk Assessment

Definition of key terms

Key terms used in the context of the proposed “Develop a National Risk Profile of Lao PDR” are given below. The terminology used is generally consistent with the recommendations of ISSMGE Glossary of Risk Assessment terms.

• Danger (Threat): Natural phenomenon that could lead to damage, described by geometry, mechanical and other characteristics. Description of a threat involves no forecasting.

• Hazard: Probability that a particular danger (threat) occurs within a given period of time. • Exposure: The assessment of exposure of people, assets and the environment to a certain hazard

involves assessing current and future socio-economic, land use and other trends. Accounting for changes in exposure is important, as reductions in future damages and losses often may be compensated by the sheer increase in people and assets in harm's way.

• Vulnerability: The degree of loss to a given element or set of elements within the area affected by a hazard.

• Risk: Measure of probability and severity of an adverse effect to life, health, property, or the environment. Mathematically, risk is defined as Risk = Hazard x Potential worth of loss, also often written as Risk = Hazard x Elements at risk x Vulnerability

• Damages: Damage represents the total or partial destruction of physical assets, such as infrastructure, buildings, furniture and equipment. Damage occurs at the time of the disaster, and is measured at replacement value.

• Losses: Losses are changes in economic flows that arise as a result of damage. They include declines in production and sales or increased production costs; lower revenues and higher production costs in the provision of services; and increased expenditures arising from the disaster. They occur after the disaster and over a relatively long period of time until full reconstruction and recovery have been attained.


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1.5 PROJECT OUTCOMES

Several project outcomes is resulted from this study, including:

• Hazards scenario development :

o Hazard Zonation maps for flood, landslide, earthquake, drought, epidemic, storm and UXO

o Identification of most hazard prone-area

o Analysis and interpretation of hazard assessment for various disasters

• Vulnerability and Exposure Assessment :

o GIS maps showing element at risks for various identified sectors

o Disaster damage matrix for related sectors

o Preliminary estimated direct and indirect losses with regard to forecasted scenarios on sectors by sector fashion

• Final Report, which is included following :

o Synthesis report on hazards, vulnerability and exposure assessment of Lao PDR at national level.

o Recommendation for prioritizing the risk mitigation investment and measure to strengthen the emergency preparedness and response mechanism to flood, landslide, earthquake, drought, epidemic, storm and UXO , this is including optimization of financial instruments and improvement of institutional measures ( policy, legal and institutional development measures)


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2 BASELINE DATA AND INFORMATION

2.1 ADMINISTRATIVE DIVISON AND GEOGRAPHY OF LAO PDR

Laos PDR is a landlocked country located in Southeast Asia, surrounded by Myanmar, Cambodia, China, Thailand, and Vietnam. The Mekong River serves as Laos border with Myanmar and Thailand for the most part, and is an important transport route in the region. Table 2.1 shows the Lao PDR country border and its length(ACD, 2010).

Table 2.1 Border of Lao PDR

Region Borders with Length of borders( km )

North China 505 South Cambodia 435 East Vietnam 2,069 North-West Myanmar 236 West Thailand 1,835

Geographically, Lao PDR is divided into three regions, namely the Northern, Central, and Southern areas, however, administratively, the country is divided into 18 political provinces, which is described in Table 2.2. Name of districts in each province is presented in annexes.

Table 2.2 Administrative province of Lao PDR ( Source: (NSC, 2005))

Province (18)

Number of District (139)

Number of Village (10,552)

Vientiane Mun 9 499 Phongsaly 9 607 Louang Namtha 5 380 Oudamxai 7 587 Bokeo 5 354 Louangprabhang 11 855 Houphan 8 784 Xayabury 10 487 Xiang khuang 8 541 Vientiane 12 593 Borikhamxay 6 327 Khammouane 9 803 Savannakhet 15 1,543 Saravane 8 724 Xekong 4 253 Champassack 10 924 Attapeu 5 207 Xaisomboun SR 5 84

Figure 2.1 Administrative map of Lao PDR (Source: (NSC, 2005))


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2.2 POPULATION OF LAO PDR

Population Characteristic Lao PDR has been characterized by large number of young population. This condition is treated as positive aspect, and this can envisage the mobilization of predominantly young communities to protect their settlement against disaster risk. Studies of disaster causalities have indicated that the young and the old are often most at risk. They are, for example, less mobile (capable of evacuation), more dependent, have less resistant to disease, and often command fewer resources. Increasing casualties in disaster can be anticipated in this age group.

Population Density Figure 2.4 and Figure 2.5 show the population density in Lao PDR at district level. The population density is divided into five classes which is ranging from 0 – 25 person per sq km to more than 300 person per sq km. It is observed from the map that only few districts in Lao PDR have dense population, more than 300 persons per sq km, These districts are Sisattanak, Chantihabouri, Sikhottabong, and Xaisettha. These districts are located in Vientiane Province, the capital of Lao PDR. The Sisattanak District is having the highest population in the Capital (about 1417 persons per sq km ). Pakxe District located in Champassak Province has also high population density, about 387 persons per sq km. While more than 70 % of districts in the country have population less than or equal to 25 persons per sq km (NSC, 2005).

Figure 2.4 Population Density at district-wise in Lao PDR (Source : (NSC, 2005))

Figure 2.5 Population Density of Lao PDR at District level (Source: (NSC, 2005))

Figure 2.3 Population Pyramid of Lao PDR, 2005 ( Source : (NSC, 2005) )

Figure 2.2 Province-wise distribution of Population of Lao PDR ( Source : (NSC, 2005) )


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2.3 CLIMATE AND TOPOGRAPHY OF LAO PDR

The topography of Lao PDR is dominated by mountainous area and alluvial plain. About two-third of the country is mountainous and thickly forested, with elevations above 500 meters typically characterized by steep terrain, narrow river valleys, and low agricultural potential. This mountainous landscape extends across most of the north of the country, especially in the Annam Range, along with the border of Vietnam, the mountains reach heights of more than 2,700 m (8,860 ft), with Pou Bia, the highest point in Laos, rising to 2,817 m (9,242 ft) in the north-central part of the country. Only three passes cross the mountains to link Laos with Vietnam. The Tran Ninh Plateau, in the northeast, rises to between 1,020 m and 1,370 m (3,350– 4,500 ft), and the fertile Bolovens Plateau, in the south, reaches a height of about 1,070 m (3,500 ft). The alluvial plains and terraces of the Mekong and its tributaries cover only about 20% of the land area. Broad alluvial plains, where much of the rice crop is grown, are found only in the south and west along Mekong River and its tributaries. The Vientiane plain is the most extensive.

Laos has a tropical monsoon climate; the climate is hot and tropical, with the rainy season between May and October when temperatures are at their highest. The cool dry season runs from November through February and a hot dry season in March and April. Generally, monsoons occur at the same time across the country, although that time may vary significantly from one year to the next. Rainfall is not always adequate for rice cultivation, however, and the relatively high average precipitation conceals years where rainfall may be only half or less of the norm, causing significant declines in rice yields. Such droughts often are regional, leaving production in other parts of the country unaffected. Temperatures range from highs around 40°C along the Mekong in March and April to lows of 5°C or less in the uplands of Xiangkhoang and Phôngsali in January.

Figure 2.6 Topography and elevation map of Lao PDR


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2.4 LAND USE / LAND COVER

Department of Geography, Government of Lao PDR (DoG, 2009) has classified land use/land cover into 19 categories which may be referred in Table 2.3. Landuse is dominated by “mixed deciduous” covering 37.37% of the total landuse area and followed by “un-stocked forest” for 31.73 %. This type of mixed deciduous land use is equally distributed across the country with higher portion in northern and southern part of the country. Spatial distribution of land use in Lao PDR is presented in Figure 2.7 and Figure 2.8 show that North of Lao PDR is made up of steep mountain ranges that are mostly covered by forests, the central region is known for its extensive caves and impressive limestone landscapes. The southern part is dominated by Mekong delta. It largely accommodates country’s population and agriculture.

Table 2.3 Distribution of land use types in Lao PDR (Area)(Source : Digital Land Use Map, (DoG, 2009))

Type of land use Area (sq km) Type of land use Area (sq km) Dry evergreen 12,362.61 Savannah 1,385.39Mixed deciduous 85,692.54 Scrub 2,088.16Other land 10.63 Rice paddy 10,783.25Dry dipterocarp 14,082.71 Agricultural plantation 842.76Other land 75.79 Other agricultural land 317.01Coneferious forest 1,266.89 Barren land and rock 2,164.93Mixed bord leaved coniferous 1,106.05 Grass land 6,810.43Forest plantation 22.73 Swamp 574.76Bamboo 8,750.21 Urban and built-up area 128.6Unstock forest 72,758.53 Other land 17.24Other land 7.51 Water bodies 2,401.89Ray 5,643.61

Figure 2.7 Land use type in Lao PDR (Source : Digital Land Use Map, (DoG, 2009))

Figure 2.8 Land use map of Lao PDR (Source: (DoG, 2009))


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2.5 NATURAL DISASTER PROFILE OF LAO PDR

Laos PDR is having a rugged mountainous terrain in northern parts, as well as valleys and flood plains within the balance areas. Laos PDR has a comparatively low natural disaster profile compared to the rest of the SEA region. The main hazards in Laos are annual river and flash floods, landslides, forest and community fires, acute water shortages during specific months of the year, occasional wind storms and typhoons, agriculture pests, rodent infestations, animal and human epidemics. The manmade events like fire, traffic accidents and UXO also exist in the country.

EM-DAT (EM-DAT, 2010) has published broader profile of disasters in the country. The profile shows that drought has affected larger population. In five drought events, more than 4.25 million were affected. The epidemics have proven as biggest killer. In five events, about 578 people have been killed. More recurring events are floods in the Mekong River, which affected more than 3.45 million people.

Table 2.4 Natural disaster profile of Laos PDR (Source: (EM-DAT, 2010))

Floods in Lao PDR

The country is prone to regular flooding due to vicinity of major rivers like Mekong and Sekong rivers. Apart from Mekong, there are several minor rivers like Nam Ou, Se Bang Fai, Se Bang Heng, Se Kong, Nam Jha, and Nam beng, Nam San, Nam Ngiep, Nam Ngum, Nam Lik, and Sedone which are responsible for floods in the country. Under ADB supported project, implemented by Vision RI Connexion Services Private Limited, has published status of floods and drought1 risk management and mitigation in 2009. The report explains the profile of floods in the country. Since 1966, the country has experience 25 floods of various magnitude and duration. There are six important floods prone areas. Among them five areas are under the influence of Mekong River and one area is covered under Se Kong River.

The causative factors for the floods in the country is due to insufficient and inadequate protection dykes along the critical points, poor functioning of water control gates, lack of pumping stations or mobile pumps when inundation occurs, natural channel to drain flood water are small and shallow, deforestation, land degradation, river straightening works and 'hardened' catchments which results increasing and rapid concentration of runoff, reclamation of wetlands and low lying areas and Poor land use planning.

The climate change and rapid deforestation in the country has led to frequent and severe floods. Table 2.4 shows the occurrence of floods in the country. If there is more than 200 mm in 2 days that will lead to floods along the Mekong plain.

There are several flooding which are reported to be triggered by Storms. Severe Tropical Storm 'Xangsane' in 2006 caused severe floods in central and southern part of the country affected the community. In 2007, Tropical Storm 'Lekima' resulted in huge damage and loss exceeding the record of 2006. The large damage was reported to paddy cropping. More flood related damage and losses were reported in Luangnamtha Province and Vientiane in 2007. Two people were killed and over 600 villages were affected by the floodwater. Almost 160,000 ha of rice crop were damaged due to prolonged submergence with 30% of the planted vegetable crop. Similarly, in August 2008, areas of Luang Prabang and Vientiane were flooded. Ketsana Storm in September 2009 has also led to severe flood along the storm path. Table 2.5 shows the year of floods, damaging factors, monetary damage (USD) and region of floods. Out of 33 events, it is observed that central region of the country is most affected by the floods. The flood is resulting in colossal losses.

1 TA 6456‐REG, preparing the greater Mekong sub‐region flood and drought risk management and mitigation project, Lao PDR Inception report, Vision RI connexion services private limited, July 2009

Disaster Number of Events Killed

Total Affected

Damage (000 US$)

Drought Drought 5 - 4250000 1000Unspecified 3 44 9685 -

Bacterial Infectious Diseases

2 534 8244 -

Viral Infectious Diseases

3 208 2000 -

Unspecified 10 76 1878600 2480General flood 8 358 1569740 37128Unspecified 2 8 38435 302301

Tropical cyclone

3 64 1397764 103650Storm

Epidemic

Flood


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Table 2.5 Damage caused by floods in Lao PDR from 1966-2008(Source: (Vision-RI, 2009))

S. No Year Type of Damage Damage cost (USD)(,000) Place of Damage

1 1966 Large Flood 13,800 Central 2 1968 Flood 2,830 Central and southern3 1969 Flood 1,020 Southern 4 1970 Flood 30 Central 5 1971 Large Flood 3,573 Central 6 1972 Flood and Drought 40 Central 7 1973 Flood 3.7 Central 8 1974 Flood 180 9 1976 Flash Flood 9,000 Central 10 1978 Large flood 5,700 Central and Southern11 1979 Flood and Drought 3,600 Northern and Southern12 1980 Flood 3,000 Central 13 1981 Flood 682 Central 14 1984 Flood 3,430 Central and Southern15 1985 Large flood 1,000 Northern 16 1986 Flood and Drought 2,000 Central and Southern17 1990 Flood 100 Central 18 1991 Flood and Drought 3,650 Central 19 1992 Flood, Drought and Forest Fire 302,151.20 Central (F) and Northern(D)20 1993 Flood and Drought 21,827.93 Central and Southern21 1994 Flood 21,150 Central and Southern22 1995 Flood 15,000 Central 23 1996 Large Flood and Drought 10,500 Central 24 1997 Flood and Drought 1,860.30 Southern 25 1999 Flood 7,450 Central 26 2000 Flood 6,684.23 Central and Southern27 2001 Flash Flood 808.5 Central and Southern28 2002 Large Flood, Flash Flood and Landslide 14,170 Northern, Central and Southern29 2004 Flood 750.399 Southern 30 2005 Flash Flood and slide 1,316.58 Central and Southern31 2006 Flood 3,636 Central and southern32 2007 Flash Flood 8,056 Northern, Central and Southern33 2008 Large flood and Flash Flood 4,384.40 Northern and central

Drought

In Lao PDR, drought has also occurred with highest damage cost 40 Million US$ in 1988 and 20 Million US$ in 1989. Since the largest portion of the Lao population lives in rural areas and depends largely on agriculture, they are most vulnerable to periodic droughts. In recent years, natural disasters resulting from climate abnormalities have resulted in frequent drought and flood. Table 2.6 shows the historical account of damages caused by drought.

Table 2.6 Drought events and damage in Lao PDR(Source: (Vision-RI, 2009))

S. No Year Type of Damage Damage cost (USD)(,000) Place of Damage

1 1967 Drought 5,120 Central and southern2 1975 Drought N/A Central3 1982 Drought N/A N/A 4 1983 Drought 50% N/A 5 1987 Drought 5,000 Central and Southern6 1988 Drought 40,000 Southern7 1989 Drought 20,000 Southern8 1998 Drought 5,762.70 Northern and Southern9 2003 Drought 16,500 Central And Southern

Earthquake Risk

Limited literature and information are available about the seismic activities in Laos. However, DMH is monitoring seismic activities in the country. Some seismic activities have been reported in North Eastern part of the country. The Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has carried out regional level multi-hazard mapping of the country. The map shows three major disasters including earthquake, volcanoes and tropical storm risks. As per the report, Phongsaly, Namtha, Bokeo and Oudomxay are falling under moderate-high seismic risk area, those may expect earthquake intensity VII or less. Larger part of Sayabouri, Luang Prabang and smaller portion of Vientiane are exposed to earthquake intensity VI and less. Larger part of Luang Prabang, Houaphanh, Xiang Khohang, Sayabouri, Vientiane 1 & 2, North West of Vientiane falls under moderate-low seismic risk zone, which may expect Intensity V and less. Remaining region falls under low seismic risk. Some of the work related to active fault assessment has been done by Department of Mineral Resources, Government of Thailand. The current status of research and development reveals more intense work is to be carried out in the country for seismic hazard assessment. The Report on Power System Planning Study in the MIH, Lao PDR (ADB, 1998), has referred distribution plot of seismic events for Laos PDR. This gives the evidence of more seismic events in North-West part of Laos PDR. Some 6.0+ earthquake magnitudes have been reported in North West Provinces.


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Storms

There are several typhoons have been reported. Most significant recent typhoons were Xangsane(2006), Lekima(2007) and Ketsana(2009). These all storms have rendered colossal losses to the human life, properties and agriculture. Comparing storms with floods, storms are more damaging the economy. CRED data shows that economic losses due to storms are 305.9 Million USD than floods which are 22.828 Million USD. No much reports and data are available for storm events.

Epidemics

CRED has compiled most extensive disaster database for Lao PDR. Among all, epidemics are most frequent disasters in the country (EM-DAT, 2010). As per the report, most of the human losses are due to epidemics, storms and floods. Among these disasters, from 1981-2008, 891 deaths are reported. Large deaths of 784 have been reported due to epidemics. Several classes of epidemics like Dengue, Acute Water and bloody diarrhea, typhoid and acute respiratory tract infections are common diseases and outbreaks, reported in the country.

UXO

National Regulatory Authority for UXO/Mine Action Sector in Lao PDR (NRA, 2008) is mandated to manage UXO mitigation in the country. UXO have a lethal history in Lao PDR as they continue and contributed large killings of people and livestock, impede infrastructure development and deny access to agricultural and pastoral lands. Living with the consistent fear of UXO has reduced productivity even in low risk areas and with no alternative livelihoods. Resulting to this, villagers in these poor areas are subsequently forced to undertake high risk activities, such as farming contaminated land. The victims continue to live in acute poverty and, in many cases, chronic malnutrition, or they risk injury and death by working UXO contaminated land.

In 1997, a survey conducted by Handicap International Belgium identified 11,000 people throughout Lao PDR were injured or killed by UXO between 1973 and 1996. Following this survey, UXO Lao and other organizations working in the UXO Sector have collected limited data of subsequent UXO accidents. However, under-reporting of incidents is certain, with only data reported from limited parts of the nine affected provinces. Figure 2.9 shows the impact trend of UXO in Lao PDR. The impacts are classified into four types including accidents, casualties, deaths and injury. Further the classification has been carried out based on gender and age factor. The graph shows the decline in casualties and impacts; however, there is still dire need for mitigation intervention.

Figure 2.9 Impact of UXO in Lao PDR

Landslides

The country is prone to Landslides. Mostly landslides are triggered by heavy precipitation in Northern provinces. However there is no detailed database available with any of the focal agencies.

Impact of UXO on Community in Lao PDR(Based on UXO sector Annual report, 2007)

0

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

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2.6 DISASTER DATABASE AT PROVINCIAL LEVEL

Project team is collecting the disaster related data from various focal agencies identified for hazard assessment. In this regard, the observation reveals that still there is paucity of detailed disaster data in the country. However, several initiatives have been undertaken by leading International NGOs with National Disaster Management Office, Lao PDR for creating disaster catalog. One of the recent initiatives is LANGOCA project implemented jointly by ADPC and Save the Children, Australia. ADPC has already carried out a pilot study for collecting and compiling past disaster data for Sayaburi Province and shown great success in developing a comprehensive historical disaster events database. The database has been prepared based on DesInventar database (DesInventar, 2009), which may be referred on respective website. The report further analyzes the Sayaburi disaster database. There are six types of disasters reported in Sayaburi i.e. house fire, Wind storm, Flooding, Drought, disease-outbreaks.

The fire is the most frequent event, which has largely impacted the community. Figure 2.10 shows the profile of losses caused by fire in Sayaburi. Figure 2.11 shows the loss profile due to Storms in the province. Table 2.7 and Table 2.8 show the loss profile due to drought and diseases in Sayaburi.

Further, under the LANGOCA project, disaster event database will be up scaled to compile similar data covering the whole country, under the project “Establishing Disaster Risk Management Information System”. The data is compiled using the updated version of DesInventar (Disaster Inventory System) software developed by UNDP. The national risk profile project team will laterally support the activities of provincial level data collection by proving resource inputs and technical manpower to LANGOCA project. The collected data will be used for various components of hazard and vulnerability assessment under the National Risk Profile Project.

Figure 2.10 Impact of Fire in Sayaburi

Figure 2.11 Impact of Storm in Lao PDR

Table 2.7 Drought profile of Sayaburi ( Source: (DesInventar, 2009))

Year No of Villages Number of families Economic Losses (Kip)

2007 10 279 429,240,000 16 757 174,400,000 7 33 29,000,000

Table 2.8 Animal Diseases in Sayaburi ( Source: (DesInventar, 2009))

Year Number of Animal / Livestock Economic Losses(Kip) 2005 167 145,900,000 2006 152 119,000,000 2007 152 95,200,000

Impact on Fire in Sayaburi

73

10 10 8 7 10 8 11 884

19 15 15 14 12 10 149

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Impact of Storm in Lao

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Number of Villages 5 4 3 1 3

Number of Family 7 7 6 1 13

Economic Losses(in Kip) 38,340,000 37,420,000 27,512,000 8,251,000 92,560,000

2000 2002 2004 2005 2006


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2.7 TREND OF DISASTER IN LAO PDR

For study purpose, seven most frequent disasters are considered in the project including earthquake, landslides, floods, drought, storms, epidemics and UXOs. In absence of sufficient data, the trend lines for disaster events are not possible to be developed. However based on CRED, GRID and Other national database, the crude trend has been established.

The CRED report has developed the graph showing the disaster induced deaths. 86% of deaths have been reported due to epidemics, followed by Floods (8%) and Storms (6%). Floods are most affecting disasters contributing to 58 % of population followed by storms (27%) and drought (15%). The economic losses are mostly contributed by storms (305.95 Million USD) followed by floods(22.828 Million USD).

Prevention web explains the status of human exposure for Lao PDR wrt world country profile. Table 2.9 shows the details. Similarly, the economic exposure has been analyzed, which is referred at Table 2.10

Modeled number of people present in hazard zones that are thereby subject to potential losses.

Table 2.9 Human exposure profile of Lao PDR 2

Table 2.10 Economic exposure profile of Lao PDR 3

2 (Source:http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?cid=94) 3 (Source:http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/risk.php?cid=94)

2.8 SOURCE OF DATA AND INFORMATION

There are sever focal government departments and institutions maintain various types of data relevant to the project and data project team intends to meet the needs for adopting the methodology given above through a consultative process with such stakeholder institutions. The Project team has already commenced the consultative process with main agencies. Some of the agencies identified for such consultations are;Water Resources and Environment Institute (WERI), Department of Labour & Social Welfare, Remote Sensing Center, Water Resources and Environment Institute (WERI), WREA, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, WREA, Lao National Mekong Committee (LNMC), Mekong River Commission Secretariat, National Geographic Department , Department of Planning (DoP), Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MAF), Statistical Division, DoP, MAF, National Agricultural and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), MAF, National Educational Research Institute, Ministry of Education, National Statistics Department, Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI), Department of Energy, Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM), GIS Division, Department of Geography, National University of Laos , Center for Laboratory and Epidemiology, Department of Hygiene and Prevention, Ministry of Health, National Agricultural and Forestry Research Institute (NAFRI), MAF etc.

Table 2.11 Source of data and information

No. Name of Organization Type of Data 1 National Disaster Management

OfficeDisaster profile – hazard types, occurrence, extent, economic losses, etc.

2 Lao Department of Statistics Census 2005 dataset, Statistical Yearbook, information about geographical overview, general demographic characteristics, migration, literacy and education, health & disabilities, ethnicity and religion, economic activities, housing and living conditions and poverty and inequality.

3 Department of Meteorology & Hydrology

Climate and meteorological data, rainfall information, spatial temperature distribution, early warning communication systems, daily wind speed, seismic recording, flood discharge at various basins

4 Soil Survey and Land Classification Center National Agriculture and Forestry Institute (NAFRI)

Forest cover, Soil maps

5 Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry

Crop pattern, production yield, crop typology, drought events, crops affected by floods and droughts

6 Department of Irrigation Irrigation infrastructure database and production

7 Ministry of Health Epidemic data , health infrastructure

8 Malaria Department Case of malaria 9 Ministry of Education Education units and associated database

Populationexposed

Cyclone 1,430 0.02 70th out of 89Drought 313,984 5.34 86th out of 184Flood 63,545 1.08 37th out of 162Landslide 1,848 0.03 46th out of 162Earthquake 29,892 0.51 85th out of 153Tsunami 0 0th out of 265

Hazard type Percentage of population (%) Country ranking

Cyclone 0 77th out of 89Flood 0.03 1.10 83rd out of 162Landslide 0.01 0.37 77th out of 162Earthquake 0.11 4.03 113th out of 153Tsunami 0 0th out of 265

Hazard type GDP exposed (billions-US$)

Percentage of GDP (%) Country ranking


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No. Name of Organization Type of Data 10 National Geographic

Department Ground survey, aerial photography, photogrammetry, geo-information and cadastral map Topographic database at scale 1:25,000 and 1:50,000Topographic database at scales 1:100,000Topographic database at scale 1:500,000& 1:1000,000At 1:100,000 Scale, the attributes and features are as below:Details of Layers: · Admin Boundary /Transport /Building /Hydrography /Contour /Designated area /Utility lines Attributes details: · Functional use: terminal/ commercial/ customs/ factory / fire stations/ health posts/ hospitals/ industrial/ petrol pumps/ post office/ power stations/ railway station/ residence/ ropeways/ schools/ telephone office/ transformer station/ monuments/ chimney/ mining· Religious building: Temple/ stupa/ mane/ church/ mosque/ cemetery/ crematorium ·Structure type: Cave/ chimney/ gate/ mining site/ open shed/ revetment/ ruins/ view towers/ wall · Contour: contour value, spot elevation · Administrative area: country/ province/ district / village· Designated area: national parks/ wild life reserve/ sanctuary / conservation area/ reserved forest Feature Class: · Transportation:Roads: Highway/ regional road/ provincial road/ district road/ other roads Trails and tracks: Cart track / Railways /Ropeways/ Bridge/ other crossings/ Tunnel/ Airport / Buildings · Built up area: Buildings/ Religious/ Other structures· Land cover: Cultivation / Vegetation/ Forest/ Others· Hydrography: River/ Streams/ Glaciers/ Canals/ Ponds/ lakes· Utility: Electricity/ Telephone/ Telegraph/ Transmission/ Tower/ Pipe Line/ Water Line/ Sewerage Line

11 Department of Geology and Mines

Tectonic map with legend 1:500,000 scale.

· Geo-morphological maps 1:200,000 scale.

· Geological maps 1:200,000 scale.

12 Ministry of Communication, Transport, Post and Construction

Community , government built infrastructure , roads database

13 National Regulatory Authority UXO data

2.9 INFRASTRUCTURE

2.9.1 EDUCATION

The educational institutes of Lao PDR has been classified into three main categories, i.e. kindergarten and crèches, general education and vocational education. The general education includes primary, secondary and upper secondary schools, and the vocational education includes universities, institutes, technical secondary schools and technical first schools. In 2005, the total number of education institutes was 10716, which comprises 1170 kindergarten and crèches, 9422 general education institutes and 124 vocational education institutes (LDS, 2007) Figure 2.12 shows the numbers of educational institutes for every thousand students in 2007.

Figure 2.12 Numbers of education institutes per thousand students (Source: (LDS, 2007))

According to the GIS-based data from NGD, 2010 (NGD, 2010) the total number of school in Lao PDR is 10093. The density of school is highest in Savannakhet province (22.95%) and the lowest in Xaysomboun SR province (1.35%). The province-wise ratio of school per thousand populations are ranges from 3.49 (Xiengkhuang province) to 0.62 (Vientiane province). Figure 2.13 shows the province-wise distribution of number of school in Lao PDR.

The education sector in Lao PDR shown in the continuous progress. According to 2005 census, the literacy rate in Lao PDR is about 73%, which was 60% in 1995. The literacy rate has increased nationwide, and priority provinces have shown improvement more than the national average. Net enrollment in primary school also rose from 58% in 1991 to 84% in 2005. The literacy rate is highest in Vientiane Capital (92%) and lowest in Phongsaly Province (43%). The rate is also higher in urban areas (89%) and lowest in rural areas (54%). This is because of the minimum number of school in rural areas as well as the lack of road infrastructure. Men are more literate (83%) that women (60%).

On an average 21.14, 7.3 and 1.2 educational institutes were available for every thousand students for kindergarten, general education and vocational education respectively.


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Figure 2.13 Map showing province-wise distribution of school in Lao PDR (Source: (NGD, 2010))

2.9.2 HEALTH

According to the GIS-based information from NGD (NGD, 2010), the estimated total number of health institute in Lao PDR is 991. These include the central hospitals, curative centers, regional hospitals, provincial hospitals, district hospitals, private clinics and dispensaries. The highest numbers of health institutes are located in Vientiane Capital (13.72%) and Saravane (13.02%) province. On the other hand, there is no health institute in Bokeo province.

Figure 2.14 Map showing the province-wise distribution of health institute in Lao PDR (Source: (NGD, 2010))


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Figure 2.14 shows the province-wise distribution of health institute in Lao PDR (NGD, 2010). The number of health institute and population ratio shows that on an average 0.18 health institutes are available for every thousand persons.

In 2007, the total number of beds was 6995 in these health institutes and the bed and population ratio was 1.23 beds for every thousand persons (LDS, 2007) Figure 2.15 shows the number of beds for every thousand population in 2007.

Figure 2.15 Number of beds for every thousand population (Source: (LDS, 2007))

2.9.3 TRANSPORTATION

There is no railway system and access to the sea in Lao PDR. Therefore, the country depends primarily on road transport and, to less extent, on river and air transport. The statistics shows that in 2007, the road transport carried about 88% passenger traffics (passenger-km) and about 81% freight traffics (ton-km) (LDS, 2007). Figure 2.17 and Figure 2.16 show the distribution of passenger traffic and freight traffic respectively carried by different transport system in 2007.

The entire Lao road network is estimated about 58,800 km (NGD, 2010). It comprises 4,610 km of main (national and provincial) roads (7.85%), and 54,190 km of district and local roads (92.15%). The high density of main roads are observed in Borikhamxay province (511 km) in central region, and Luang Prabang (437 km) and Xaignabouri (417 km) provinces in northern region. Figure 2.18 shows the province-wise density of road in Lao PDR. About 40% of the main road network is paved and the rest has gravel or earth surfaces. The public road network system of Lao PDR is mostly in a deteriorated condition. About 69% of the total main roads are classified as in poor or bad condition.

The Mekong River and its tributaries, the Nam Ou and Se Kong rivers, flow through Lao PDR for over 2,000 km, provide a natural means of transportation. However, rapids, falls, and low water levels during the dry season reduced its navigability to only 1,300 km (Nogales, 2004).

There are 3 international and 9 domestic airports, and 54 airfields in the country. Domestic air transport, though small in volume, plays a significant role by providing passenger services between important urban areas and to areas otherwise inaccessible.

Figure 2.17 Passenger traffic (passenger-km) different transport system (Source: (LDS, 2007))

Figure 2.16 Freight traffic (passenger-km) different transport system (Source: (LDS, 2007))


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Figure 2.18 Map showing the province-wise density of road in Lao PDR (Source: (NGD, 2010))

2.9.4 HOUSING

The private housing in Lao PDR has been classified into two basic categories, i.e. permanent houses and temporary houses (Census, 2005). The main basis of this classification is the type of building materials used for roof, wall and floor. The permanent houses include concrete/brick houses, wooden houses and concrete/wooden houses, and the temporary houses include semi-permanent houses with structure of bamboo, plywood and grass. According to the Population and housing census, 2005 about 90% of the households live in permanent houses and about 10% are in temporary houses having grass roof. Based on the accessibility to road, the private housing has again been classified into three categories, like urban, rural with road and rural without road. The statistics shows that there are 72.1% households live in rural houses (51.56% rural with road and 20.54% rural without road) and rest 27.9% households live in urban houses (Figure 2.19).

Figure 2.19 Household living in houses in terms of access to road (Source: (LDS, 2007))

There are five types of private housing occupancy are exist in Lao PDR. These are owner, tenant, lodger, tied accommodation and other. The other category includes those who stay free in dwelling unit but constitute a separate household. About 90% households live in their own houses and only 0.1% households live as free. The other type of living arrangement, like tenant, lodger and tied accommodation are found in urban areas (6%) and in rural areas almost 100% households live in their own houses.


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Figure 2.20 Map showing the distribution of housing roof type (Source: (Census, 2005))

Figure 2.21 Map showing the distribution of housing wall type (Source: (Census, 2005))


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2.9.5 IRRIGATION AND WATER RESOURCES Irrigation In Lao PDR all areas are irrigated by surface irrigation and sprinkler and micro-irrigation are not used (FAO, 2007). The irrigation is classified into two categories, i.e. rain-fed lowland and dry season irrigation. In 2008, the total area equipped for irrigation was estimated at 755,858 ha (DOA, 2008). This area covers 661,328 ha designed for rain-fed lowland irrigation during the wet season and 94,530 ha designed for dry season irrigation. The rain-fed lowland irrigation is common throughout the country but the dry season irrigation is mainly concentrated in the central region (70.55% of total dry season irrigated areas) especially, near the major cities, like Savannakhet (27.65%) and Vientiane Capital (22.3%). The dry season irrigated areas in southern region and northern region are 18.8% and 10.55% respectively. Figure 2.22 shows the distribution of dry season irrigated area by region. River diversion is the main source of water for irrigated schemes.

Figure 2.22 Dry season irrigated area by region (Source: (DOA, 2008)).

2.9.6 FISHERIES

The fisheries sector of Lao PDR includes both capture fisheries and aquaculture. Lao PDR is located in the Mekong River Basin and the Mekong catchment comprises about 97% of the total area of the country (FAO, 2002). Freshwater resources are dominated by rivers and the country includes some of the most pristine of all the Mekong tributaries. River fisheries dominate the sector. Floodplain/swamp fisheries occur in localized areas and are generally more common in the south of the country. The country has one large reservoir, Nam Ngum, with modest production and a number of smaller reservoirs used for hydropower and mainly irrigation. Aquaculture is poorly developed wrt Southeast Asian standards.

According to the Fisheries Division, the production figure of inland capture fisheries was about 30,000 MT nationally in 1999. The figure was estimated based on the household survey in 1997/98 related to expenditure and consumption of fish. The official figures for total production (1990-1999) from inland capture fisheries are shown in Figure 2.23 Lao PDR is unlikely a net exporter of fish. Considerable quantities of fish pass informally between Lao PDR and Thailand, especially in the south and along the Mekong River, which forms much of the 1800 km international border between the two countries (FAO, 2002).

Figure 2.23 Production of inland capture fish in Lao PDR (Source: (FAO, 2002))


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2.9.7 AGRICULTURE

The Lao PDR is primarily an agricultural economy and this sector contributing about 37% (estimated in 2009) of the GDP (U.S. Department of State, 2010). About 80% of the total population is involved in agricultural activities (Thibaut, 2010). The agriculture land is 11,943 sq km, which is about 5 % of total land area of the country (NGD, 2010). It covers both swidden agricultural field or “hai” and permanent agriculture. In 2008, the total agriculture planted was 1398752 ha and crop production was 6207470 MT (DOA, 2008). The major crops in terms of agricultural production are rice (47.16%), maize (15.25%), vegetables (13.07%), starchy roots (6.9%) and fruits (6.36%). Figure 2.24 shows distribution of crop production by type in 2008. Most of the rice is produced in central region of the country (54.8%) because this region is comparatively low in nature.

Figure 2.24 Crop production by type in Lao PDR (Source: (DOA, 2008)).

The agricultural sector of Lao PDR has not played a major role in the country's foreign trade. The major export products from this sector are timber, lumber, plywood, and coffee.

2.9.8 ECONOMY AND EMPLOYMENT

Lao PDR is a landlocked least developed country surrounded by prosperous neighbouring country with strong economic growth. In 2009, the GDP growth rate was 6.5%, which is below the average growth (7.5%) of the previous 5 years (ADB, 2010). The main contributors of Lao’s GDP growth are industrial (3.8%), agriculture (0.7%) and service sector (1.7%). Figure 2.25 shows the contribution of major three sectors to growth of GDP.

Figure 2.25 Contribution of major three sectors to growth of GDP (Source: (ADB, 2010)).

The principal exported goods of Lao PDR are electric power, plywood and coffee, however its principal imported goods are motorized vehicles, paper, sugar, medicine and rice. The 18 tributaries of the Mekong River serve as potential for the generation of hydropower for export and development projects. At present, there are 112 dams in Lao PDR (GIS-based Data from NGD, 2010) and its total hydropower generation capacity accounts for 87 dams or about 25,000 MW and thermo-electrical power of more than 3,000 MW for export to neighbouring countries as well as for domestic industries (Govt. repot of Lao PDR, (IISS, 2010)). Most of these dams (50) are located in Savannakhet province.

About 98.6% of the economically active populations of Lao PDR are employed (Census, 2005). The economically active population has been defined as the population of 10 years and above. However, the students, household workers, retired, sick and too olds have not been considered in this category. Figure 2.26 shows the percentage of employed and unemployed economically active population in Lao PDR. These employed populations are engaged in seven broad employment sectors, like government, parastatal, private, state enterprise, employer, own-account worker and unpaid family worker. Figure 2.27 shows economically active population engaged in different employment sectors. The statistics


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shows that the majority among these employments are unpaid family workers (46%) and own account workers mainly in agriculture (42%). The Vientiane Capital, Savannakhet and Saravane province covers the higher proportion of economically active employment.

Figure 2.26 Employed and unemployed economically active population (Source: (Census, 2005))

Figure 2.27 Population engaged in different employment sectors (Source: (Census, 2005))

2.9.9 TOURISM

The tourism industry in Laos has grown impressively since 1990, becoming a major contributor to national income and employment. The great potential for expanding the tourism sector lies in the country's stunning natural environment, rich culture and heritage, and its location surrounded by such popular tourist destinations as Thailand, China, Vietnam, and Cambodia. Laos also has a great quantity of natural resources such as rivers, mountains, and vast numbers of wild bird and animal species. The total protected forest covers about 36.54 sq. km all over the country (NTA, 2006). It comprises 15.8 sq. km in central region, 11.47 sq. km in northern region and 9.27 sq. km in southern region of the country. Given these advantages, tourism is now the major earner of foreign exchange for the country.

At present, there are total 15 international checkpoints in Lao PDR and tourists are able to get visa on arrival along the 13 checkpoints. There are now three international airports in the country. From 1995 to 2007, the number of tourists entered the country increased at the average rate of 18.67% per annum (LDS, 2007) and earned huge revenue. For instance, in 2004 the tourism sector earned revenue of 118,947,707 US$. Figure 2.28 shows the number of tourists entered in the Lao PRD from 1995-2007. Based on the recent growing number of tourists and regular flow rate, the National Tourism Authority of Lao PDR estimated that there will be 3 million tourists in 2020 with expected revenue of 250-350 million US Dollars per year (NTA, 2006). Tourist in Lao PDR comes from almost all over the world. Figure 2.29 shows the distribution of tourists visited from different region in 2007.

Figure 2.28 Number of tourists entered in the Lao PRD from 1995-2007 (Source: (LDS, 2007))

Figure 2.29 Distribution of tourists visited from different region in 2007 (Source: (LDS, 2007))


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2.10 TELECOMMUNICATION

At least 15 provinces of Lao PDR are already connected with optical fiber and so far, the passive fiber optic connection has been installed, connecting all 18 provinces. The national fiber network is already being used for domestic telecommunication, both fixed and mobile, as well as for international internet access. In 2007, there were 88 automatic, 1 magnetic and 5 mobile telephone centers (LDS, 2007). Like any other country, mobile phones are increasingly popular in Lao PDR. The number of telephone booth establishing and in operation was 1,185,982 in the same year in which 1,075,012 are mobile. Mobile phones are distributed throughout the country but fixed telephones are mostly concentrated in cities especially in Vientiane capital. The numbers of telephone by sector in 2007 is shown in Figure 2.30.

Figure 2.30 Numbers of telephone by sector in 2007 (Source: (LDS, 2007))

2.11 POWER

Figure 2.31 Map showing the distribution of hydropower dams in different provinces (Source: (NGD, 2010))


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The power sector in Lao PDR serves two vital national priorities: (1) it promotes economic and social advancement by providing a reliable and affordable domestic power supply; (2) it earns foreign exchange from electricity exports. The 18 tributaries of the Mekong River serve as potential for the generation of hydropower for export and development projects. At present, there are 112 dams in Lao PDR (NGD, 2010) and most of these dams (50) are located in Savannakhet province. Figure 2.31 shows the distribution of hydropower dams in different provinces.

The power sector, and especially hydropower, has already become an important contributor to Lao PDR's economic growth. The total hydropower generation capacity accounts for 87 dams or about 25,000 MW and thermo-electrical power of more than 3,000 MW for export to neighbouring countries as well as for domestic industries (NGD, 2010). In 2008 the export of electricity amounted to approximately 30% of all Lao PDR’s export levels. Figure 2.32 shows the power generation and export from 2001-2008.

Figure 2.32 Power generation and export from 2001-08 4

4 http://www.poweringprogress.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=90&Itemid=125

2.12 MINERAL AND QUARRY

Lao PDR has an abundance of metallic and bulk minerals. There is a wide variety of metals, like gold, silver, platinum, copper, lead, zinc, tin, antimony, iron and non metals, like amber, amethyst, quartz, beryl, sapphires, kaolin, limestone, gypsum, potash, salt, sand and gravel. According to the Department of Geology (DoG, 2009) Laos has a total of 572 mining deposits and prospects and 47% of these deposits and prospects were found to contain gold, copper, lead and/or zinc. Mining is one of the most important factors influencing the current high economic growth in Lao PDR. Figure 2.33 shows the export value of minerals from 2000-2004(UNDP, 2006).

Figure 2.33 Export value of minerals from 2000-2004 in Lao PDR (Source: (UNDP, 2006))


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3 HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.1 EARTHQUAKE HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Lao PDR is prone to moderate to negligible earthquake risk. The country has witnessed several small and moderate scale earthquakes in past in northern and western part of the country. Only one event of more than seven magnitude has been reported in past. The details of earthquake events for last 38 years are plotted in Figure 3.1. The Department of Mines and Geology is responsible for monitoring seismic activities in the country. The earthquake hazard map has been developed by UNOCHA in MMI scale. The MMI scale is one of the simple indicators for understanding the severity of earthquake hazards.

Figure 3.1 Earthquake events in Lao PDR (based on USGS catalogue)

3.1.1 MAP CONTENT

Earthquake hazard map has been developed in Modified Mercalli Intensity scale (MMI), which shows distribution of intensity throughout the country. The earthquake hazard maps have been prepared for 250 years return period. The earthquake map may be referred at Figure 3.2.

3.1.2 APPLICATION OF MAPS IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

Earthquake hazard maps have been developed at national scale for Lao PDR. Earthquakes prone areas have been delineated at province level. This hazard maps is developed for several purposes, such as:

• Earthquake hazard maps will be helpful for physical and infrastructural development in the country. The map will help the policymakers and decision makers to understand the severity of earthquake hazard and take necessary action to sustain the development through introducing necessary programs and measures.

• Most important sectors like education, health, housing, lifelines and transportation need special attention for earthquake safety. The earthquake zones will provide fare understanding about expected performance of structures during earthquakes and necessary measures to protect the structures.

• The zones will further help the local urban government to introduce and enforce building byelaws and building codes to protect the urban infrastructure.

• The map will help national and international NGOs to prioritize the disaster risk reduction strategies.

3.1.3 DATA SOURCES

Data used for producing maps are:

• Earthquake catalog for Lao PDR area can be downloaded from USGS (USGS) website. It can be downloaded from http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eqarchives/epic/

• Earthquake hazard map the country is available on website5, as referred on 5th June 2010.

5 http://ochaonline2.un.org/LinkClick.aspx?link=ocha&docid=19370

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4.6 ‐ 5.0 1 2 3 4 3 1 2 7 3 5 3 1 9 3 1 3 6 3 1 3 1 1 2 6 1 2 2 2 5 1 1

5.1 ‐ 5.5 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 3 3 1 6 2 1 2 3 1 1 1

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3.1.4 METHODOLOGY

The present earthquake hazard map for Lao PDR has been developed by United Nations Office for Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, OCHA Regional office for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok. The map can be referred in OCHA website (http://ochaonline.un.org )

The UNOCHA earthquake hazard map has been developed by using the map data source from Global Discovery, FAO, Smithsonian Institute, Pacific Disaster Center, UNISYS and Munich Reinsurance Group. The earthquake map is presented in Modified Mercalli Scale (MMI). The MM intensity classifies the severity of earthquake shaking on a scale of I to XII. The lowest intensities are not felt by people, while the highest intensities corresponding to nearly total destruction of all constructed facilities. The MMI maps derived from UNOCHA were in turn classified into 4 earthquake hazard categories for this study: Negligible, low, moderate and high. The severity of earthquake hazard may be referred at Figure 3.2.

3.1.5 HOW TO READ THE MAP

Based on MMI distribution, the hazard zones are calibrated. Table 3.1 shows the relationship between intensity and severity zones. Moderate seismic risk has been demarcated by red colour, followed by orange, and yellow colour representing low and negligible seismic zone respectively. The map further shows geographical coverage of negligible, low and medium seismic zones.

Table 3.1 Earthquake hazard zone scale

Zone MMI Range Color

Negligible 1-V yellow

Low VI Orange

Moderate VII Red

The map is accompanied with Table 3.2 showing seismic hazard zoning maps for return periods of 250 Years within each district as per format given in Figure 3.2.

3.1.6 ANALYSIS OF HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Table 3.2 shows district wise coverage of various zones for stated return periods.

Table 3.2 Distribution of Seismic Hazard Zone in Lao PDR

SN Area in each Province Total Area

(sq km) number

of district

% area Name of Province

Area (sq km) covered by earthquake hazard

high

1 Xayabury 15,541.07 5 56.7 2 Bokeo 6,989.57 5 94.47 3 Oudomxay 11,794.83 7 100 4 Luangnamtha 9,605.49 5 100 5 Phongsaly 15,470.98 7 97.6 59,401.94 25.78

mod

erat

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1 Xaysomboun SR 7,709.64 5 97.98 2 Vientiane 12,591.74 10 90.28 3 Xiengkhuang 12,715.39 7 95.87 4 Huaphanh 17,522.78 8 99.96 5 Luang Prabang 19,971.56 11 56.89 70,511.11 30.6

low

1 Attapeu 9,551.72 5 100 2 Champassack 14,982.04 10 100 3 Sekong 8,396.82 4 100 4 Saravane 10,163.70 8 100 5 Savannakhet 21,400.51 15 100 6 Khamuane 16,724.40 9 100 7 Borikhamxay 15,711.30 6 94.71 8 Vientiane Mun. 3,586.91 9 67.97 100,517.40 43.62

230,430.44

Xayabury, Bokeo, Oudomxay, Luangnamtha and Phongsaly provinces are falling in high earthquake hazard zone. Except Xayaburi, more than 94% areas of other four provinces are falling in high earthquake hazard zone. The map shows that one-fourth area of Lao PDR is falling in high earthquake hazard zone.

Xaysomboun SR, Vientiane, Xiengkhuang, Huaphanh and Luang Prabang provinces are falling in moderate earthquake hazard zone. The expected earthquake intensity in these provinces are VI or less. More than 30% area of the country is lying in moderate earthquake hazard zone. Except Luang Prabang, more than 90 % of geographical area of four provinces are falling in moderate zone .

Similarly, remaining eight provinces are falling under low earthquake hazard zone. 43.62 % area of the country is falling in low earthquake risk zone.


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3.1.7 SPECIAL REMARKS

• The earthquake hazard maps have been developed using MMI scale. The hazard assessment is based on earthquake intensity map developed by UNOCHA. The objective of developing MMI scale map is to make policy makers, decision makers to understand distribution of severity of earthquake risk in the country. Though, PGA maps are more precise and could be understood and more used by seismologists, geologists and civil engineers, however it is not very much used by other sectoral development and planning professionals. Thus, the developed maps will be widely referred and used by large section of society.

3.1.8 RECOMMENDATIONS

• The Government of Lao PDR has set up Meteorological Network, earthquake monitoring and Telecommunication National Seismological Center under Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. The purpose of the center is to compile, monitor seismic activities in the country. There is a network of seismic stations in the country monitoring ongoing seismic activities. However, there is a need to enhance the monitoring system.

• More earthquake events have been reported in north-west area of the country. There is a need for more intensive study in earthquake active areas.

• At present, past earthquake isoseismal maps are not available. It is necessary to develop system, so that earthquake isoseismal maps could be plotted in detail after the earthquakes.

• Further study on active fault within Lao PDR should be carried out for refined prediction of its tectonic behavior.


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Figure 3.2 Earthquake hazard map of Lao PDR


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3.2 FLOOD HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.2.1 BACKGROUND

Lao PDR is prone to a number of different hazards, both natural and man-made hazards. Among the few of natural hazards in the country, flood hazard has been regularly reported and become a major concern in Lao PDR due to vicinity major rivers like Mekong and Xekong Rivers. Figure 3.3 shows the historical account of damage caused by flood in Lao PDR.

In this study, flood hazard mapping for Lao PDR have been done at the national level. Therefore, the flood hazard maps are not expected to depict any finer detail. A total of 8 river basins have been analyzed across the country of Lao PDR and will be discussed further in this chapter.

Figure 3.3 Damage Cost of Flooding in Lao PDR from 1966 to 2008 ( Source: (Vision-RI, 2009))

3.2.2 MAP CONTENT

Flood hazard maps have been developed for most frequent flood prone river basins. Eight rivers have been identified and determined for flood hazard and risk assessment in accordance with the past history of flood as well as in consultation with the flood- related agencies. These Rivers are Nan Ou, Nam Ngum, Nam Ngiap, Nam Xan, Se Bangfai, Xe Banghiang, Xe Don and Xe Kong. The flood hazard maps show the flood inundation and flood water depth with various return period scenarios. These return periods are 10 years, 50 years and 100 years. It is noted that the bigger the return period, the worst is the flood scenario. The flood inundation area for particular scenario has been indicated in square kilometers. The results of the flood hazard maps are shown in Figure 3.13 to Figure 3.20


The flood hazard maps have been developed for most flood prone rivers as stated above. The purposes of developing these hazard maps are:

• The flood hazard maps can be used by policymakers, decision makers and planners as a basis for future developing master plans and safe development. The authority can take necessary actions to reduce the impacts on various economic sectors like agriculture, housing, tourism, industry, production etc.

• The flood hazard maps will help the government of Lao PDR and local authority to understand the severity of flood hazards in the depicted area and develop necessary mitigation and preparedness plans.

• The flood hazard maps can help policymakers, decision makers, planner and other related actors to plan and implement an effective system of the flood management in Lao PDR.

• The flood hazard maps will help international and national relief agencies and humanitarian organizations to prioritize hazard disaster preparedness and mitigation interventions.

• The Department of Agriculture may use these maps to change the crop pattern and other non structural measures for reducing negative impacts on agriculture.

3.2.4 DATA SOURCES

For extensive flood hazard mapping, detailed hydrological, meteorological, demographic and geomorphologic data are required. It is also imperative to understand the scale of the flood hazard assessment. More precise and detailed data are required for site specific flood studies. The objective of the current project is to develop flood hazard maps at national level scale. The current hazard maps have been developed based on data available with focal departments and established authentic sources. The parameters are classified into following categories with their sources.

a. Hydrological data (Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Lao PDR) • Extreme discharge data • Daily Rainfall data • Rainfall station and discharge station

b. Land Use/ Land cover) (Source : National Geographic Department, NGD, Lao PDR) c. Elevation (Source : Aster resolution 30 Meters)(source http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/gdem.asp) d. River network and catchments (Google Earth and National Geographic Department, Lao PDR)

Software required for Flood Hazard Assessment

The flood hazard assessment has been developed using ArcGIS 9.3 software (ESRI, 2010), with the extension of HEC-GeoHMS (USACE, 2009a), HEC-GeoRAS (USACE, 2009b); and HEC-RAS (USACE, 2009c) .


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The Geospatial Hydrologic Modeling Extension (HEC-GeoHMS)6 has been developed as a geospatial hydrology toolkit which uses ArcGIS to develop a number of hydrologic modeling inputs for the Hydrologic Engineering Center's Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS. ArcGIS software is available from the Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI). Analyzing digital terrain data, HEC-GeoHMS transforms the drainage paths and watershed boundaries into a hydrologic data structure that represents the drainage network. The program allows users to visualize spatial information, document watershed characteristics, perform spatial analysis, and delineate sub basins and streams.

HEC-GeoRAS7 is a set of procedures, tools, and utilities for processing geospatial data in ArcGIS using a graphical user interface (GUI). The interface allows the preparation of geometric data for import into HEC-RAS and processes simulation results exported from HEC-RAS. To create the import file, the user must have an existing digital terrain model (DTM) of the river system in the ArcInfo TIN format, or Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The user creates a series of line themes pertinent to developing geometric data for HEC-RAS. The themes created are the Stream Centerline, Flow Path Centerlines (optional), Main Channel Banks (optional), and Cross Section Cut Lines referred to as the RAS Themes.

HEC-RAS8 is designed to perform one-dimensional hydraulic calculations for a full network of natural and constructed channels. The HEC-RAS system contains four one-dimensional river analysis components for: (1) steady flow water surface profile computations; (2) unsteady flow simulation; (3) movable boundary sediment transport computations; and (4) water quality analysis. A key element is that all four components use a common geometric data representation and common geometric and hydraulic computation routines.

3.2.5 METHODOLOGY FOR FLOOD HAZARD MAPPING

Figure 3.4 shows the methodology for mapping the flood inundation area and depth for various return periods. The methodology for flood hazard mapping has been developed based on secondary available data from various authentic sources like DMH and NGD. The methodology largely used software Hec-GeoRAS, Hec-GoHMS, Hec-RAS and ArcGIS 9.3 as stated above. The creation of river basin and river profile has been validated using Google-Earth/map images of the river basin. The following are the steps used in the development of flood inundation maps. ‐ Extraction and profiling of river and basin from Aster data using HEC-GeoHMS ‐ Creation of river center line, bank line, cross section in GIS platform by using HEC-GeoRAS ‐ Estimation of floods at different return periods (this analysis uses three different return periods; 10,

50 and 100 years) for each river using Extreme Type I distribution (Gamble distribution). Rainfall data have been used to calculate return period in case of no discharge data.

‐ Computation of flood levels using HEC-RAS. ‐ Export of the result from HEC-RAS into GIS platform for mapping of flood inundation areas.

6 HEC‐GEoHMS software website reference http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec‐geohms/index.html referred on 5th May 2010. 7 HEC‐GEORAS software website reference http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec‐ras/hec‐georas.html referred on 5th May 2010 8 HEC‐RAS software website reference http://www.hec.usace.army.mil/software/hec‐ras/hecras‐features.html referred on 6th May 2010.

‐ Development of flood inundation maps (area and depth). ‐ Based on the proposed methodology, the flood hazard maps for specified rivers have been developed

and presented in Figure 3.13 to Figure 3.20

River & Basin profile Generation using Hec

GeoHMS

Creation of River Center line, Bank line, cross

section using Hec GeoRas

Data Analysis and Flood Modeling

Flood Inundation analysis and mapping wrt area and Depth using Hec GeoRas

Return Period of floods for 10, 50 and 100 years

based on extreme discharge data and precipitation data

- Slope of River- Manning Coefficient

Validation of Flood Modeling Maps

If flood Area /Depth is

Appropriate

flood Inundation Map for various return periods Yes No

SRTM/ASTER Elevation Data

Discharge Data and Precipitation Data from

Gauging Stations

Figure 3.4 Flowchart showing the methodology for flood hazard assessment


Each river flood hazard map shows the following: • National, province and district boundaries • River network • line • Area and depth of inundation for particular return period. Each color of flood inundation area

represents different level of flood depth. o Dark Green : Depth below 0.3 meter o Light Green : Depth between 0.3 to 1 meter o Light Blue: Depth between 1 to 2 meter o Dark Blue: Depth above 2 meter


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The flood hazard maps show areas of inundation and flood depths in their river basins. The flood hazard maps for different return periods were overlaid on province and district maps. Results provided area and depth of flood water covered in respective province and districts. For analysis purpose, the flood water depth and area covered in various districts were worked out for all the identified eight river basins.

For Nam Ngiap River, There are three districts in two provinces (Borikhan and Pakxan district in Borikhamxay province and Hom district in Xaysomboun SR province) which are flooded. Most of the flood dept are more than two meters. Largest flood inundation is in Borikan district which is about 13 sq km approximately. The graph in Figure 3.5 shows the inundation area for different dept of Nam Ngiap River.

There are two districts (Borikhan and Pakxan district) affect by flood from Nam Xan River in Borikhamxay province. The largest inundation area is in Borikhan district which is more than 20 sq km approximately. The graph in Figure 3.6shows the inundation area for different dept of Nam Xan River.

For Nam Ou River, Phongsaly and Luang Prabang province are prone due to the flood hazard. There are two districts (Mai and Khoa district) flooded in Phongsaly. Most of the flood is in Luang Prabang province (in Ngoy, Nambak, Pakxeng and Pak Ou district) and the inundation is bigger than flood inundation in Phongsaly. The graph in Figure 3.7 shows the inundation area for different dept of Nam Ou River.

Flood inundation of Se Bangfai is located in two provinces which are Khamunae (in Mahaxai, Xebangfai and Nongbok district) and Savannakhet (Xaibouri and Atsaphon district). The largest inundation area is in Xebangfai district which is more than 160 sq km approximately. The graph in Figure 3.8 shows the inundation area for different dept of Se Bangfai River.

For Xe Banghiang River, There is only Savannakhet province that flooded. Seven districts which are Xephon, Phin, Champon, Nong, Xonbouri, Songkhon, and Thapangtho had prone to flood. The largest inundation is in Sangkhon district which cover 250 sq km approximately. The graph in Figure 3.9 shows the inundation area for different dept of Xe Banghiang River.

For Xe Kong River, flood inundation area covered nine districts within two provinces which are Karum and Lamam district in Sekong province and Thateng, Pakxong, Sanxai, Sanamxai, Samakkhixa, Phouvong, Xaisettha district in Attapeu province. The largest inundation area is in Samakkhixa district which cover more than 100 sq km approximately. The graph in Figure 3.10 shows the inundation area for different dept of Xe Kong River.

For Nam Ngum River, there are three provinces had prone to the flood which are Borikhumxay, Vientiane and Vientiane municipality. The largest inundation area is Pak Ngum district in Vientiane province which covered more than 100 sq km. The graph in Figure 3.11 shows the inundation area for different dept of Nam Ngum River.

Flood Inundation of Xe Don River is located in two provinces which are Saravane and Champassack. There are five and three districts affected by flood respectively. The most affected flood area is

Khongxedon district (Saravane province) where the flood inundation is more than 26 sq km. The graph in Figure 3.12 shows the inundation area for different dept of Xe Don River.

Figure 3.5 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Ngiap River

Figure 3.6 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Xan River


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Figure 3.7 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Ou River

Figure 3.8 Flood inundation area in different depth of Se Bangfai River

Figure 3.9 Flood inundation area in different depth of Xe Banghiang River

Figure 3.10 Flood inundation area in different depth of Xe Kong River


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Figure 3.11 Flood inundation area in different depth of Nam Ngum River

Figure 3.12 Flood inundation area in different depth of Xe Don River


• Flood hazard assessment for Lao PDR have been done at the national level for 8 river basins. The study has been used secondary data, primarily from Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Irrigation Department, and Department of Mining and Power. Due to the limited access to the detailed data and field visit, therefore the results of the flood hazard assessment are limited at national level. It is recommended to carry out site specific flood hazard mapping for local and more detailed planning.

• Since Lao PDR is frequently affected by flood, it is recommended to use the national level-inundation maps of Lao PDR for developing more detailed flood inundation maps for the country. The detailed inundation maps will help policy maker, planner, decision maker and related actors to better plan and implement an effective system of flood management.

• The current flood hazard maps have been developed for 8 – most important river basins in Lao PDR, that are reported frequently flooded and affected lives and properties. In order to have a more clear and complete picture of flood hazards in Lao PDR, it is recommended to incorporate the inundation maps of Mekong River developed by other agencies, such as Mekong River Commission ( MRC )


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Figure 3.13 Nam Ngiap flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.14 Nam Xan flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.15 Nam Ou flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.16 Se Bangfai flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.17 Xe Banghiang flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.18 Xe Kong flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.19 Nam Ngum flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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Figure 3.20 Xe Don flood inundation for 10, 50 and 100 years return period


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3.3 LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Slope stability in Lao PDR is related with weather condition. Landslide usually affected transportation infrastructure within moonson season in Lao. Rainfall is the main triggering factor for landslide occurrences. Other principal factors that influence landslide are slope gradient, rock condition (lithology), and land use.

3.3.1 MAP CONTENT

Landslide hazard map (Figure 3.23) shows spatial distribution of susceptibility zones. The range of zones are negligible, low, medium, high, and very high. Provincial and district boundary marked as overlay layers for more detailed spatial distribution.


• The maps will help the planning and development agencies for physical and social development in hazard prone areas.

• The maps will be especially helpful to Ministry of Public Works and Transport (PTI), Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare, Department of Planning, Department of Irrigation, Water Resources and Environment Administration, Department of Electricity Development, Department of Road for sectors development in landslide prone districts and region.

• The study reveals that road sector is most prone to landslides during monsoon season. The Department of Road has initiated several structural mitigation projects at local level. The maps will help in identifying the sites for structural and non structural mitigation projects. The maps will help in prioritizing the site specific studies and mitigation interventions.

• The maps will help the department to focus on landslide disaster prone areas and seek cooperation with various other response agencies and departments for better disaster preparedness. The map will help NDMO of Lao PDR to arrange more appropriate evacuation route and zone when landslide hazard occured.

3.3.3 DATA SOURCES

• Elevation data for producing slope gradient from ASTER DEM (METI, 2006) which can be downloaded from http://asterweb.jpl.nasa.gov/

• Land use data from National Geographic Department (NGD) of Lao PDR. • Geological map of Lao from Department of Mines and Geology (DMG) of Lao PDR. • Precipitation data from Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Lao PDR.

3.3.4 METHODOLOGY

The landslide hazard assessment methodology uses a semi-quantitative approach which considers explicitly a number of factors influencing the stability. A range of scores and settings for each factor may be used to assess the extent to which that factor is favourable or unfavourable to the occurrence of instability (hazard). A good example of such a semiquantitative approach was the ranking method used

in Cuba (Abella, 2007). Overall method can be referred in Annexure1(Trifunac, 1975; Junrong, 1992; Zhang, 1999).

Four thematic layers are created, such as: slope gradient, land use, rock condition (lithology), and rainfall. Each of the thematic layers are ranked into five classes each, from safe condition to the most prone condition for landslide hazard (see Annexure1). Those layers are then combined with different value of weighting. Slope influences 40% of landslide occurrence, land use contributes 20%, lithology for 20%, and rainfall attributes for 20%. The approach results to susceptibility map with ranks of 1 to 5 which defines the landslide susceptibility from safe (negligible) to very susceptible (very high).

Complete and detailed methodology can be referred to Annexure1.


The map shows spatial distibution of several landslide susceptibility class in Lao PDR. Province boundary is demarcated for detailed susceptibility in specific region. Description of colors can be referred in Table 3.3.

Table 3.3 Color table of Landslide susceptibility

Landslide Susceptibility

Negligible

Low

Medium

High

Very High


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Landslide hazard susceptibility in Lao PDR is classified into 5 zones as stated above. Larger part of the country is falling under low to medium landslide susceptibility zones (Figure 3.21). Only 5.24 % of the country is prone to very high and high of landslide susceptibility. Identification of very high and high susceptibility zones are thrust area of landslide hazard risk assessment. These high susceptible zones are localized in south east and central part of Lao PDR.

Figure 3.21 Distribution of landslide susceptibility in Lao PDR.

Negligible zone has distinguished slope gradient that considerably flat or nearly flat. Low susceptibility zone is governed by low slope gradient and marine rocks type. Medium and high susceptibility are governed by medium slope gradient and terrestrial rock types which are characterized by thick soil deposits.

Four provinces including Xekong, Attapeu, Xaisomboun SR, and Borikhamxai have more than 10% of land coverage in high susceptibility zone, which can be referred in Figure 3.22. High landslide susceptibility zone in Xekong and Attapeu are located in south east part of Lao, especially in conservation area (Xe Xap and Dong Amphan). The high landslide susceptible areas in Xaisomboun Sr and Borikhamxai (and Khammouane) are located in the conservation area (Nam Kading and Phou Khao Khouay).

Three provinces namely Saravane, Phongsaly and Khmmouane are having high landslide susceptibility zone between 5 to 10 %. The distribution of landslide susceptibility zone in the country is presented inTable 3.4

Figure 3.22 High susceptibility percentage vs provinc area crossplot

Attapeu, Phongsaly, Xekong, Xaisomboun Sr, and Houaphan are four provinces with larger medium susceptibility zone as referred in Table 3.4. Medium susceptibility zone in Attapeu province has major road connected Lao with Vietnam that go through hilly and mountainious area with high susceptibility of landslide. Phongsaly has dense road network within medium and high susceptibility zones in northern part of Lao. Landslide hazards have been closely related with transportation infrastructure in overall Lao PDR. Some major roads that cross country border that traverse through high susceptible landslide zone are become high maintenance problems.

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

Negligible Low Medium High Very High

0.35%

50.87%

43.54%

5.21%

0.03%

Susceptibility distribution

Xaisomboun Sr

Attapeu

Champassack

Xekong

Saravane

Savannakhet

Khammouane

Borikhamxai

VientianeXiang Khouang

Xaignabouri

Houaphan

Louang Phrabang

Bokeo

Oudomxai

Louang Namtha

Phongsaly

Vientiane Mun.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

0.00 5000.00 10000.00 15000.00 20000.00 25000.00

Percen

tage

(%)

Province Area (sq km)

High susceptibility


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Table 3.4 Landslide hazard susceptibility percentage per province

3.3.7 SPECIAL REMARKS

Landslide inventory database for Lao PDR does not exist for whole country. Specific rating system for landslide susceptibility in Lao also has not been developed. Therefore this assessment used a rating system (semi quantitative approach) for landslide susceptibility assessment.


• Analysis of parameters related to landslide susceptibility are necessary to create a rating system by Lao landslide experts, either qualitative or quantities, for Lao PDR. This rating system can be used for analyzing susceptibility for the whole Lao PDR.

• More detailed analysis on high and very high susceptibility zones are recommended in relation with transportation infrastructure.

• In relation with precipitation and flood, a dynamic model for landslide should be developed for Lao PDR. Due to landslide occurrence that are closely related with specific rainfall period, the threshold of precipitation triggered landslide can be a vital help in disaster risk management.

Province Negligible Low Medium High Very HighXaisomboun Sr 0.72% 32.17% 56.63% 10.48%Attapeu 19.38% 66.82% 13.75% 0.06%Champassack 64.57% 33.20% 2.22% 0.01%Xekong 18.26% 57.96% 23.77% 0.00%Saravane 51.41% 41.94% 6.64% 0.00%Savannakhet 0.10% 78.35% 20.52% 1.04%Khammouane 0.00% 53.56% 37.10% 8.95% 0.39%Borikhamxai 0.06% 39.87% 49.48% 10.58% 0.00%Vientiane 0.30% 58.60% 37.03% 4.07%Xiang Khouang 1.27% 48.37% 46.84% 3.52%Xaignabouri 0.44% 61.40% 37.43% 0.73%Houaphan 0.69% 45.99% 51.47% 1.85%Louang Phrabang 0.22% 45.84% 49.81% 4.12%Bokeo 3.42% 72.57% 23.66% 0.34%Oudomxai 0.01% 48.46% 49.33% 2.20%Louang Namtha 0.42% 54.77% 43.68% 1.13%Phongsaly 0.01% 34.83% 59.51% 5.65%Vientiane Mun. 0.02% 76.34% 23.31% 0.32%


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Figure 3.23 Landslide hazard susceptibility map of Lao PDR


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3.4 EPIDEMIC HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.4.1 BACKGROUND

The word of epidemic is referring to the occurrence of more case of a disease that would be expected in a community or region during a given time period. Epidemics are commonly thought to involve outbreaks of acute infectious disease9.

Disease and epidemics occur as a result of the interaction of three factors, agent, host, and environment. Agents cause the disease, hosts are susceptible to it, and environmental conditions permit host exposure to the agent. An understanding of the interaction between agent, host, and environment is crucial for the selection of the best approach to prevent or control the continuing spread of an epidemic.

Figure 3.24 Accumulative number of cases in year 2004 to 2008 in Lao PDR

Lao PDR experienced outbreaks of large range of major disease such as typhoid, malaria and cholera. Health Department of Lao PDR have been regularly monitoring and reporting 22 diseases as mentioned above, including malaria. Among the 22, the 10 highest diseases, in term of number of cases reported, have been identified and will further discuss on this chapter. Figure 3.24 shows the accumulative number of cases of each disease reported in Lao PDR.

9 (http://www.answers.com/topic/epidemic)

3.4.2 MAP CONTENT

For disease hazard assessment, ten diseases (Acute Bloody Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Tract Infection, Acute Watery Diarrhea, Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Food Poisoning, Hepatitis, Malaria, Measles and Typhoid Fever) have been analyzed. The limited date is available for diseases for all provinces. The chronology of events is restricted to about 5 years except Malaria, whose data is available for 10 years. The each disease susceptible map shows specific disease prone provinces with certain severity and trend of disease. The developed maps are indicators of up/ down trends of specified diseases.

3.4.3 APPLICATION OF DISEASE HAZARD MAPS • The susceptibility maps will provide necessary guidance to Department of Health and National

Planning agencies for allocating necessary budget for eradication or reduction of diseases/ outbreaks. • Base on produced maps, the national and province agencies will give special attention to health,

hygiene, vector control, poverty and health infrastructure in more disease susceptible provinces. • The maps will be helpful for national and international health service agencies and NGOs to provide

necessary support to susceptible province. • The susceptibility map renders additional dimensions to identify causative factors of diseases. For

example frequent flooding in some low lying areas may lead to water and vector borne diseases.

3.4.4 DATA SOURCES • Malaria Department: Ten years of data for Malaria disease.

• National Health Department of Lao PDR : Five years of data for Acute Bloody Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Tract Infection, Acute Watery Diarrhea, Dengue Fever, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, Food Poisoning, Hepatitis, Measles and Typhoid Fever.

3.4.5 SPECIAL REMARKS • At present, most of the disease data available for 5 years from 2005 to 2009 except Malaria(10 years

of data, from 1998 to 2008)

• The methodology for diseases mapping are based on exposure of community to specific diseases


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3.4.6 METHODOLOGY

The methodology for disease susceptibility maps have been prepared using the methodology shown in Figure 3.25

a. Collection of Data: The data related to number of cases, population, mortality are collected from authentic sources, which are referred at Data availability from sources. The data is collected and validated for its authenticity. The database is generated for susceptibility mapping due to various diseases.

b. Development of Disease susceptibility maps:

• The disease data for each province has been collected for each year since 2005(for Malaria since 1998). The population growth has been further calculated through statistical projection methods on annual basis based on population data from National Statistic Center of Lao PDR (NSC, 2005) The incidence index (II) has been developed, which is the simple ratio of diseases cases reported in particular year and population at that year for specific province. This index is dimensionless.

Number of cases reported for each class of Disease in specific province in specific year

Total population in specific province for specfic year

• The II has been calculated for each class of disease for each year. The regression analysis is carried out to get the generalized II for particular district for span of study period. The analysis has been further carried out for overall II for all provinces. The details of susceptibility maps may be referred at Figure 3.26 to Figure 3.35.

3.4.7 HOW TO READ THE MAP • The susceptibility map shows the trend of each disease. Background color of the map represent

trend of 5 years disease since 2005 to 2009(10 years of Malaria since 1998 to 2008). There are two tone of the color which represent different trend of disease.

o Trend of decreasing is represented by blue tone color: the higher the decrease the darker the blue color, vice versa the lower the decrease the lighter the blue tone color.

o Trend of increasing is represented by orange tone color: the higher the increase the darker the orange color, vice versa the lower the increase the lighter the orange tone color

o For multi disease map, the trend of increasing is represented by pie chart

Decreasing Trend

Increasing Trend

Figure 3.25 Methodology chart of Epidemic


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3.4.8 ANALYSIS OF DISEASE HAZARDS

Figure 3.26 to Figure 3.35 show the trend analysis of ten diseases. The trend shows that Acute Bloody Diarrhea, Acute Respiratory Tract Infection, and Acute Watery Diarrhea cases are increasing. However the trend of Malaria is decreasing. The analysis and observation of hazard assessment is as below:

• In case of Acute Bloody Diarrhea (ABD), Sekong is highest susceptible. Bokeo, Vientian, Xiengkhaung, Borikhamxay, Saravane and Attapeu are also high susceptible. However trend of ABD in Lungnamtha, Phongsaly, Xayabury, Xaysomboun SR and Vientiane Municipality are decreasing.

• The trend of Acute Respiratory Tract Infection (ARTI) in Bokeo, Borikhamxay and Sekong are highest. The analysis further shows that Savannakhet and Saravane are also have increasing trend. However, trend of ARTI in Phongsaly, Luang Prabang, Huaphanh and Xaysomboun SR are decreasing

• The analysis reveals that Borikhamxay and Sekong are having highest uptrend of Acute Watery Diarrhae (AWD). Vientiane Municipality, Xayabury, Luang Prabang, Huaphanh, Champassack and Attapeu show gradual increasing trend. However, Phongsaly and Xaysomboun SR are decresing trend of AWD.

• Trend of Dengue Fever are highly increasing in Bokeo, Saravane and Attapeu. In the other side Borikhamxay is highly decreasing meanwhile Phongsaly, Xayabury, Xiengkhuang, Xaysomboun SR, Savannakhet and Champassack are slightly decreasing.

• Attapeu is highest increasing trend of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). For Phongsaly, Luangnamtha, Oudomxay, Huaphanh, Xaysomboun SR, Borikhamxay and Sekong the trend are decreasing. The most decreased trend is in Savannakhet and Champassack.

• More cases of Food poising has been reported in Borikhamxay and Savannakhet. The trend of the same is decreasing in Huaphanh, Luang Phabang, Vientiane, Vientiane municipality, and Champassack.

• The trend of Hapatitis is very much increased in Oudomxay, Vientiane and Khamuane.. Meanwhile, Borikhamxay and Savannakhet have highly decreasing trend.

• Most of the provinces except Sekong and Attapeu have decreasing trend of Malaria. Khamuane, Savannakhet and Saravane are highest decreasing trend.

• Luang Phabang and Champassack are highest increasing trend of Measles. However, Phonsaly, Xayabury and Savannakhet are highest decreasing trend.

• Oudomxay, Huaphanh, Xiengkhuang and Khamuane are highly increasing trend of Typhoid Fever. The decreasing trend are in Luang Phabang, Phongsaly, Xayabury, Xaysonboun SR, Vientiane municipality and Borikhamxay province.

• For the multiple disease, the highest increasing trend of multiple disease are covered seven provinces which are Xekong, Khammouane, Bokeo, Oudomxai, Attapeu, Vientiane and Houaphan province. On the other hand, There is only three province had the decreasing trend which are Xaignabouri, Xaisomboun SR and Phongsaly province. Xaisomboun SR is the only one province where had no pie chart in Figure 3.36 because this province has none of increasing trend for all diseases.


• Susceptibility map pinpoints the exact areas affected, the trend and the severity of diseases. This provides ample information implying further health investigation to the health department and other health-related agencies regarding the surrounding disease causative factors on the part of the causative agents, the hosts, and the environment for appropriate actions.

• This map implies that health department and other related agencies take necessary interventions to manage the risks

o Interventions geared towards the agents and environment causing the disease. Hazard Reduction Program is necessary which includes strategies, activities or interventions to reduce the occurrence of health hazards or the exposure of the communities to the hazard. (Ex. Dengue Prevention Program employing Source Reduction Strategy in the context or eliminating the mosquito breeding places in the community)

o Consider interventions that can strengthen identified health vulnerabilities or weaknesses of the community. For example, the province has high incidence of Acute Watery Diarrhea and vulnerability assessment shows lack of sources of safe water, then a health program must be developed to provide good source of safe water, etc.

o The identified diseases in the map indicate the need of Health Emergency Preparedness Program to develop the capacity of the health department, related agencies and even the affected communities to manage the health risks such as outbreaks or epidemics, etc. in terms of policy, guidelines, plan development, capability building of health workers, health facility upgrading, health education and advocacy, and provision of logistical resources, etc.

o This susceptibility map indicates development of significant systems such as information management system, a good disease monitoring and surveillance system, as well as early warning and alert system, among others.

o This susceptibility map signals the need of community risk reduction initiatives as basis for the establishment of public health programs that can prepare the communities to manage the risks of health emergencies or disasters.


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Figure 3.26 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Acute Bloody Diarrhea

Figure 3.27 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Acute Respiratory Tract Infection


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Figure 3.28 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Acute Watery Diarrhea

Figure 3.29 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Dengue Fever


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Figure 3.30 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever

Figure 3.31 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Food Poisoning


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Figure 3.32 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Hepatitis

Figure 3.33 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Malaria


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Figure 3.34 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Measles

Figure 3.35 Maps showing disease susceptibility maps for Typhoid Fever


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Figure 3.36 Map showing multiple disease in Lao PDR


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3.5 UXO HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.5.1 BACKGROUND

UXO or unexploded ordnance are explosive weapon that failed to detonate when they were fired, dropped, launched or projected and still pose the risk of exploding. Throughout the second Indochina War ( 1964 – 1973 ), more than 580,000 bombing missions dropped over two million tons of explosive ordnance on the territory of Lao PDR , making it per capita the most heavily bomb nation in the world (NRA, 2008).The explosive ordnances were mostly cluster munitions that Lao people call ‘bombies”. An estimated 270 million tons of various types of bombs were dropped and around 30 % failed to explode and remain to live. The NRA Annual Report shows that around 80 million bombies are scattered and buried in the land of Lao PDR. It is reported that big bombs weighing between 100 to 30,000 pounds, rockets, heavy artillery shell, hand grenades, shell and large quantities of other types of shells were used and remain dangerous in Lao PDR.

Figure 3.37 Survey of Victims and Accidents based on UXO type ( Source: (NRA, 2008))

National Regulatory Authoruty has conducted survey on victims and accidents induced by UXO. The report reveals that, at national-wise, bombies have accounted for some 15% of the accidents where the type of device has been identified, whereas mines come in at 20%. Big bombs have accounted at 11%, as a cause of accidents. The other percentage consists of small bomb, grenate, mortar,rocket,artillery shell, other and unknown. Figure 3.37 shows result of a survey on victims and accidents based on the type of device which had been conducted by NRA-UXO.

3.5.2 MAP CONTENT

UXO hazard map has been prepared based on UXO distribution and density. UXO distribution map shows the spatial distribution of Unexploded Ordnance (UXO) across the country of Lao PDR, while UXO density map depicts the density of UXO. The UXO density is defined as a number of UXO per square kilometer.

3.5.3 APPLICATION OF UXO HAZARD MAP

The UXO hazard map is mainly developed based on the type of UXO and spatial distribution data collected from NRA. The map of UXO categories and density has been used to assess the risk at district level across the country of Lao PDR. Therefore, the UXO hazard map shall be read as a combination of the distribution and density of UXO. These maps have been developed with several purposes as described below:

• The map will help the stakeholders, decision makers and policies maker to better understand the severity of UXO hazard and take necessary decision, action and mitigation measures, especially for the development of affected-community and infrastructure expansion.

• The map will help the UXO-related actors, national and international NGOs as well as Donors to prioritize the disaster risk reduction strategies.

• The map will help the UXO-related actors, local, national and international NGOs as well as Donors to set priorities in mitigation interventions in UXO hazard area based on the potential impact of UXO remaining.

3.5.4 DATA SOURCES

The main source for data on UXO spatial distribution and the type of UXO is National Regulatory Authority for UXO/Mine Action Sector of Lao PDR (UXO-NRA). The NRA is the leading institution in the UXO/Mine action sector which has responsibility to coordinate of all UXO Action activities in Lao PDR ( http://www.nra.gov.la/ ).

Type of Device

Small Bomb3%

Mine20%

Artillery Shell11%

Fuse1%

Mortar6%

Rocket4%

WP Bomb0.30%

Other17%

Unknown5%

Bombie15%

Big Bomb11%

Grenade9%


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3.5.5 METHODOLOGY

The methodology of UXO hazard map development mainly adopted from the NRA-UXO. The UXO hazard risk analysis uses site-specific data on the distribution and density of UXO to estimate the threat to human health and environment. The UXO distribution is spatially mapped and categorized based on its type. The spatial distribution of UXO has been used to classify the density of UXO, which is defined as a number of UXO per square kilometer; which will help in estimating the risk of UXO hazard. The schematic diagram in Figure 3.38 shows the methodology used for UXO hazard assessment and mapping. The numerical and tabular data of UXO distribution have been obtained from NRA-UXO. The data have contents of the coordinate location of each UXO, its type and categories, target as well as its aircrafts. The following are the steps used in the development of UXO hazard maps. ‐ Extraction and plotting of the coordinate location of the UXO. The plotted coordinate of UXO

resulted in a spatial distribution map of the UXO across the country of Lao PDR. ‐ Preparation of the administrative map of Lao PDR ‐ Overlay the spatial distribution map of UXO and administrative map at district level. ‐ The density map of UXO at district-wise obtained by calculating the number of UXO in each district

divided by the area of each district (km2). ‐ The UXO density were then classified into 8 classes.

Figure 3.38 Flowchart showing the methodology for UXO hazard assessment


There are few steps to read the map of UXO hazard. The density of the UXO is created based on total number of UXO per square kilometers, while class or category of the density is represented by the gradation color of yellow to red. The red represents the most dense area and the white represents the less dense area of UXO.

The most dense area of UXO existence

The less dense area of UXO existence

3.5.7 ANALYSIS OF UXO HAZARD ASSESSMENT & MAPPING

With respect to its threat to human health and the environment, UXO differs from other hazards in several ways. UXO presents an immediate risk of acute physical injury from fire or explosion resulting from accidental or unintentional denotation (BRAC, 1999). Figure 3.39 and Figure 3.40 show the spatial distribution and density of UXO which represent the level of UXO hazard. It can be concluded from the maps that the UXO exists across the country of Lao PDR . Different type of UXO, such as incendiary, ammunition, cluster bomb, rocket and other type of general purpose UXO can be found across the country. In term of its type of UXO, the most type of UXO found in the country of Lao PDR is UXO for general purpose. The other most type of UXO which also found in the country are ammunition and incendiary. The existence of cluster bomb has also been un-neglectable .The density map of UXO shows a number of UXO per square kilometer. In can be concluded from the hazard assessment that several districts of Khamuane and Savannaket Province are having the very density of UXO ranging 2 – 4 of UXO per square kilometer. Several other districts in Huaphanh, Xienghuang, Saravane, Sekong and Attapeu have also been identified as area with high density of UXO.

3.5.8 SPACIAL REMARKS

Due to the access limitation to the latest data related to UXO in Lao PDR, the latest figure of UXO distribution and its density have might been changed as several measurements such as clearance activities have been done in Lao PDR. Related to it, there are some remarks that need special attention from UXO-related actors, as follow:

• There are needs to collect and survey for the latest data on the current UXO existence and its casualty distribution

• Several districts area in some provinces seemed to need more attention and immediate actions , such as : Boualapha, Xaibouathong and Mahaxai District in Khamuane Province; Vilabouri, Xepon, and Nong Districts in Savannakhet Province.


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Figure 3.39 Map showing the distribution of UXO in Lao PDR ( Source: (NRA, 2008))

Figure 3.40 Map showing the density of UXO in Lao PDR ( Source: (NRA, 2008))


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3.6 DROUGHT HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.6.1 BACKGROUND

Drought management in Lao PDR is now a priority area of cooperation for countries in the region. To support drought preparedness and mitigation efforts the establishment of a real-time early warning and drought assessment/monitoring system is essence. Drought is closely related with disaster management and food security, hence, its analysis and monitoring is indispensable to safety of the people in this region. Throughout the last century, scientists created drought indices to identify impacts from the drought. In this regard, emphasis was given to analyze drought in Lao PDR through the calculation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). The findings of this activity would create the basis for incorporating appropriate risk-reduction strategies and prioritizing them into the country's development planning. Concerned government authorities can use drought indices to assess and respond to drought.

There is large spatial and temporal variability in rainfall pattern of in Lao PDR resulting in severe flood in some parts and drought in other parts at the same time. Each year, the country experiences either a short or long dry period even within the wet season. So, study on drought in time and space is most essential. It is also important to know the probability of having a consecutive dry period during the different seasons. Advances in climate knowledge and prediction capacity on the seasonal time-scale can contribute to adaptive management and resilience within the hydro-climatic system for livelihood security (WMO, 2005). Therefore, study on drought hazards especially drought monitoring and assessment are essential for implementing mitigation and adaptive measures to reduce drought impact in Lao PDR.

3.6.2 MAP CONTENT

The map shows the set of susceptibility maps developed based on the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). SPI has been developed based on the collected data from 16 stations of rainfall and precipitation across the country of Lao PDR. The 16 stations are well-distributed with coverage from southern tip ( Muong Mahaxai) to northern end ( Phongsaly ). The study therefore began with the analysis monthly rainfall data of those stations available from the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology ( DMH ) of Lao PDR. The period of available data of different stations varies from 9 to 30 years.

3.6.3 APPLICATION OF DROUGHT HAZARD MAP IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

The output products of this study provide an essential step toward addressing the issue to drought vulnerability in the country and can be used in guide for drought management strategies for mitigation purposes. Identifying regional vulnerabilities can lead to adjustment in practices in water resource sectors and can help decision makers to take the drought into account from hazard perspective and include the concept of drought vulnerability into natural resource planning. This can further help the decision makers to select suitable strategy for food security, cropping pattern and resource mobilization.

3.6.4 DATA SOURCES

Reliable supporting documents, maps, appropriate model and method for developing SPI were collected from different sources. To cover entire country, attempt was made to collect data from at least one representative station from all the provinces. Unfortunately, data is available from only 16 stations which do not cover all the provinces of the country. However, selected stations are well distributed with coverage from southern tip (Muong Mahaxai) to northern end (Phongsaly). The study therefore began with the analysis monthly rainfall data of those available stations. The necessary climatic data required for computing the indices, i.e. monthly total rainfall and monthly mean temperature were collected from the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology. The period of available data of different stations varies from 9 to 30 years. Some of the source for data is as follow:

• Fengthong, T. 2007: Climate Change and Human Health in Lao PDR, Regional Workshop on Climate Change and Human Health in Asia. From Evidence to Action, Bali Indonesia.

• Gibbs, W. J. and Maher, J. V., 1967. Rainfall deciles as drought indicators. Bureau of Meteorology Bulletin, No. 48, Commonwealth of Australia, Melbourne.

• http://www.internationalfloodnetwork.org/AR2006/AR13Oudmicht.pdf, 2006. Flood Forecasting system and flood management in Lao PDR.

• http://www.faorap-apcas.org/lao/Lao%20Background.pdf: Profile of the Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR): I Background

• National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 2006. Climate of 2006, U.S. Standardized Precipitation Index.

• NDMC, 2009. Monitoring Drought. National Drought Mitigation Centre, University of Nebraska–Lincoln

• Warning of Drought/Food Shortages in South and Southeast Asia: Final Report. National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Environmental Data and Information Service (EDIS), Centre for Environmental Assessment Service (CEAS), Model Branch, University of Missouri Atmospheric Science Department in Columbia, Missouri, USA.

• World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Commission for Agriculture Meteorology (CAgM), 1986. Drought Probability Maps prepared by Rao, G. Appa, Agricultural Meteorology, CAgM Report No. 24; CAgM-VIII Rapporteur on Drought Probability maps, WMO/TD – No. 207

• World Meteorological Organization, 1992. International Meteorological Vocabulary, WMO Report NO. 182, 2nd edn. WMO: Geneva; 784.

• World Meteorological Organization, 2005. Meteoworld (weather. Climate. Water), WMO , August 2005.

3.6.5 SPACIAL REMARKS

Besides its advantages, practical applications of the SPI possess some disadvantages (Guttman, 1999). Some of the limitations are:

• Long term data is needed to compute SPI. It is recommended to have at least 30 consecutive

years of data but most stations especially in developing countries lack such long time series of data.

• SPI analysis has its strength in identifying temporal variation in precipitation at different locations with respect to their climatological values but there is not much value in spatial comparison of SPI to identify drought prone area.


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• SPI does not take account of surplus or deficit in precipitation in preceding season in its computation but in reality precipitation in preceding season also has large influence in current soil moisture content.

• Another limitation of the SPI emerges from the standardization process of the index itself. Drought measured by the SPI can occur with same frequency at all locations when considered over a long time period.

• Misleadingly large positive or negative SPI values may result when the index is applied at short time steps to regions of low seasonal precipitation (Sonmez, 2005)

• Figure 3.41 Geographical distributions and data availability of the stations used in the analysis

3.6.6 METHODOLOGY

The drought hazard assessment has been carried out using SPI ( Standard Precipitation Index ). SPI was chosen for this study because of its simplicity and based only on precipitation data. The SPI has many advantages over other drought indices, such as the Palmer approach, which requires more variables. The SPI is calculated from monthly precipitation record by first fitting in the gamma probability distribution function and then transforming into a normal distribution in such a way that the mean SPI is set to zero (McKee, 1993; Edwards, 1997). Figure 3.41 and Table 3.5 show the geographical distributions and data availability of the stations used in the analysis. The program used for the computation of SPI is SPI_SL_6.exe developed by National Drought Mitigation Center, USA (Annexure2). The program can compute the SPI for up to six intervals of time (i.e. 1-, 2-, 3-, 4-, 6-, 12 month SPI). This temporal flexibility allows the SPI to be useful in both long-term hydrological applications and short-term agriculture (Sirda, 2003). The negative and positive values of SPI stand for drought and wet conditions. The input file must be an ASCII text file containing 3-columns as Year, Month and Monthly Precipitation Value in order. The precipitation total must NOT include decimals and can be in either inches or mm. The missing data should be reported as -9900. The output file can be named anything with a .dat (or .txt or .spi etc.) extension.

Table 3.5 List of meteorological stations used for analysis

No Site No Region Province Station Name Lat Long Alt. Year Available

1 140506 Southern Champassack Soukhoumma 14.65 105.80 95 1993 – 2008

2 150602 Southern Saravane Saravanh 15.72 106.43 170 1981 - 2009

3 160504 Central Savannakhet Donghene 16.00 105.78 188 1999 - 2009

4 160505 Central Savannakhet Kengkok 16.43 105.20 126 1990 - 2008

5 160506 Central Savannakhet Phalan 16.70 106.23 197 1993 - 2008

6 170502 Southern Attapeu Muong Mahaxai 14.75 107.22 399 1991 - 2008

7 180307 Central Borikhamxay Meuang Kao 18.57 103.73 166 1999 - 2008

8 180405 Central Borikhamxay Kengkouang 18.25 104.72 430 1991 - 2009

9 190103 Northern Xayaboury Xayaboury 19.23 101.37 323 1980 - 2009

10 190202 Northern Luang Prabang Luang Prabang 19.88 102.13 293 1980 - 2009

11 190203 Northern Luang Prabang Pakkagnoung 19.53 102.43 190 1994 - 2008

12 190303 Central Xiengkhuang Phiengluang 19.52 103.05 1056 1996 - 2008

13 200101 Northern Luangnamtha Luangnamtha 20.93 101.40 600 1993 - 2009

14 200201 Northern Luang Prabang Muong Ngoy 20.57 102.60 386 1995 - 2008

15 200204 Northern Oudomxay Oudomxay 20.68 102.00 550 1991 - 2009

16 210201 Northern Phongsaly Phongsaly 21.73 102.20 637 1988 - 2009


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The purpose is to assign a single numeric value to the precipitation which can be compared across regions with different climates. Here, three categories of drought (Table 3.5) based on McKee et al., 1993, 1995 in two seasons, and in addition to that other two duration viz. main rainy months (June-September) and April to March (Annual) were considered in the study for computation of the indices and used for analysis of drought hazard in Lao PDR (Table 3.6). April to March period for annual basis was chosen by taking in consideration of the beginning of the wet season and ending of the dry season. SPI value from -0.99 to 0.99 is considered as normal. The methodology for drought computation and its impact is presented in flow chart (Figure 3.42).

Drought frequency has been computed for climatologically periods and variation of drought at different locations was compared. Spatial and temporal variation of drought has been investigated for different duration as depicted in Table 3.6. The probability of occurrence of drought has been computed based on the frequency distribution and expressed in percentage. Obviously, the value cannot exceed 100%. The occurrences in varying drought categories were analyzed in different time steps of 1, 4, 6 and 12 months so as to compute the indices. The occurrence of moderate, severe, extreme and moderate to extreme droughts in different durations for each year were analyzed at each station. Drought occurrences have been investigated based on frequency of the events for each drought category in each duration and on total period of the study.

Table 3.6 Duration used for drought indices analysis

No Duration Corresponding months

1 Dry Season October to March

2 Wet Season April to September

3 Main Rainy Months June, July, August and September

4 Annual April to March

Figure 3.42 Methodology of drought index computation using SPI


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Drought susceptibility maps have been prepared based on the probability of drought occurrence (moderate, severe, extreme, and moderate to extreme) in identified stations. The climatological drought susceptibility maps in different seasons shows in term of classification from low to high drought susceptible areas in four seasons. The maps in Figure 3.43 to Figure 3.46 show spatial distibution of several drought susceptibility class in Lao PDR. Province boundary is demarcated for detailed susceptibility in specific region. Description of colors can be referred below. From the figure given, one can easily locate low to high susceptibility areas in different seasons.

3.6.8 ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT HAZARD ASSESSMENT

Annual time series of occurrences drought of different categories and its aggregate in different durations is depicted in Figure 3.48 to Figure 3.51. Summary of drought years and fraction (percentage) of stations affected by the drought in different duration is presented in Table 3.7. Note that the period is limited from 1993 (or 1994) to 2008, when data is available from most (at least eleven stations out of sixteen) of the stations. This is done to avoid disproportionate weightage of individual station in analysis when data is available from only a few stations.

Drought is observed in more than half (50%) of the stations only in 2005 for dry season and in 1998 for June-Sept. period, while drought spread is always less than 50% in wet season and April-March period. Similarly it is observed in many (25-50%) stations in 3-4 years in different duration, while it is observed in some (10-25%) stations in 1-4 years in different duration. Spread of drought is limited to only a few (<10%) stations in 3-5 years in different seasons.

Drought is not observed in any station in about one third of the years in wet season and April-March period where as it is not observed in any station in about one quarter and one fifth of the years in June-Sept. period and dry season respectively. So likelihood of drought occurrence in one or more stations is highest in dry season and least in wet season.

Table 3.7 Summary of drought occurrence and its coverage

% of Stations

Dry Season Wet Season June- September April–March (Annual)

None 2000, 2001, 2003 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005

1996, 2002, 2004, 2005 1997, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006

< 10 1996, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2008

1994, 1997, 2001 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001 1995, 1996, 1998, 2002

10-25 1998, 2007 1995, 2003, 2007, 2008 2003, 2008 2008

25-50 1994, 1995, 1999, 2004 1993, 1998, 2006 1993, 2006, 2007 1994, 1999, 2004, 2007

>50 2005 Nil 1998 Nil

Table 3.8 Probability of drought occurrence (%) at different stations

Station Dry Season Wet Season June-Sept. April-March

MOD SED EXD MOD SED EXD MOD SED EXD MOD SED EXD

Soukhoumma 7 13 0 0 13 0 6 13 0 0 13 0

Saravanh 4 4 4 7 11 0 15 0 4 12 8 0

Donghene 0 0 14 11 11 0 22 0 0 14 0 0

Kengkok 6 0 6 5 0 5 5 0 5 6 6 6

Phalan 9 18 0 7 7 0 21 0 0 18 0 0

Muong Mahaxai 12 0 0 6 0 6 11 0 6 0 0 6

Meuang kao 11 0 0 10 10 0 10 0 10 11 11 0

Kengkouang 17 8 0 0 7 7 7 0 7 0 9 9

Xayaboury 7 10 0 13 3 0 17 3 0 3 10 0

Luang Prabang 10 3 3 13 7 0 7 10 0 7 7 0

Pakkagnoung 14 0 7 13 0 0 13 0 0 14 0 0

Phiengluang 0 0 11 27 0 0 27 0 0 13 13 0

Luangnamtha 0 13 0 0 6 6 6 0 6 0 6 6

Muong Ngoy 8 0 0 7 0 0 14 0 0 8 0 0

Oudomxay 11 11 0 5 5 5 5 5 5 11 0 6

Phongsaly 10 5 0 9 5 5 14 0 5 10 10 0

Threshold rainfall for drought occurrence (corresponding to SPI equal to minus one) is also computed for all durations at each station (Table 3.9). In line with seasonal and regional distribution of rainfall, these thresholds are higher in regions/ seasons of high rainfall and vice versa.


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Table 3.9 Threshold rainfall values (mm) at different stations

No Site No Region Province Station Name Dry Season

Wet Season

June-Sept.

April-March

1 140506 Southern Champassack Soukhoumma 95 1450 1195 1595

2 150602 Southern Saravane Saravanh 92 1490 1230 1635

3 160504 √ Central Savannakhet Donghene √ 50 1275 855 1425

4 160505 Central Savannakhet Kengkok 70 1055 810 1245

5 160506 Central Savannakhet Phalan 39 996 740 1130

6 170502 Southern Attapeu Muong Mahaxai 86 2035 1710 2160

7 180307 Central Borikhamxay Meuang Kao 105 2535 2045 2660

8 180405 Central Borikhamxay Kengkouang 53 1535 1295 1580

9 190103 Northern Xayaboury Xayaboury 103 945 660 1115

10 190202 Northern Luang Prabang Luang Prabang 138 965 730 1153

11 190203 Northern Luang Prabang Pakkagnoung 50 1541 1225 1660

12 190303 Central Xiengkhuang Phiengluang 72 1665 904 1255

13 200101 Northern Luangnamtha Luangnamtha 160 947 710 1140

14 200201 Northern Luang Prabang Muong Ngoy 62 835 610 902

15 200204 Northern Oudomxay Oudomxay 132 1040 777 1220

16 210201 Northern Phongsaly Phongsaly 176 1090 830 1292

Note: √ Low confidence in the tabulated values as data is available only for a few year.

In empirical manner, drought low susceptible and high drought susceptible areas has been categorized as area having 15% to 20 %, and more than 20% probabilities respectively, based on the analysis of probability of drought occurrence at various station. These area are listed in Table 3.10


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Table 3.10 Moderate drought susceptible areas

Severity of Drought Duration Low susceptibility High susceptibility

Moderate drought

Dry Season Kengkouang and its surrounding None Wet Season Some parts of Luang Prabang, Huaphanh, Vientiane, most parts of Xiengkhuang, Xaysomboun

SR Northwest parts of Xiengkhuang

June-Sept most parts of Huaphanh, Xaysomboun SR, few parts of Xiengkhuang, Luang Prabang, Eastern parts of Vientiane and central parts of Xayaboury; Most parts of Saravanh, Eastern tip of Khanuane and Sekong, some parts of Savannakhet

North east parts of Xiengkhuang and a few parts of neighboring provinces; South East parts of Saravanh

April-March None None

Severe drought

Dry Season Phalan and its surrounding area, South East tip of Khamuane None Wet Season None None June-Sept None None


Extreme drought

Dry Season None None Wet Season None None June-Sept None None


Moderate to Extreme Drought

Dry Season All parts of Xayaboury, Oudomxay except surroundings of Oudomxay station, most parts of Vientiane, Western half of Veintiane mun., Western parts of Luang Prabang and Xaysomboun SR, Southern parts of Luangnamtha and Bokeo, South East parts of Huaphanh, Central portion of Borikhamxay,Southwest tip of Khamuane, some parts of Savannakhet, Saravanh, Northern tip of Sekong, most part of Champassack and Western corner of Attapeu

Surroundings of Oudomxay and Pakkagnoung; most parts of Khamuane, few parts of Borikhamxay and Savannakhet

Wet Season All parts of Xayaboury, Vientiane, Vientiane mun. and Huaphanh, most parts of the Phongsaly, Oudomxay, Luang Prabang, Borikhamxay, Western parts of Xaysomboun SR; Northern portion of Southern region and southern portion of central region

All parts of Xiengkhuang, most parts of Xaysomboun SR and neighboring parts of Borikhamxay; Surrounding area of Donghene station

June-Sept Most part of Northern region except Luangnamtha and its surroundings, and Huaphanh; All part of Vientiane, Vientiane mun., most parts of Borikhamxay, Eastern Half of Khamuane and central part of Savannakhet; Almost all parts of Southern region

All part of Xiengkhuang, most parts of Huaphanh and Xaysomboun SR and northern parts of Borikhamxay; Eastern part of Savannakhet and Northern part of Saravane

April-March Most parts of Huaphanh, Phongsaly and few part of Oudomxay; Most part central region except Xiengkhuang and its surrounding; Most of parts of Saravane and a few parts of Sekong and Champassack

Xiengkhuang and its surrounding


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Figure 3.43 Moderate drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept. and (d) April-March (Annual).


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Figure 3.44 Severe drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept. and (d) April-March (Annual).


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Figure 3.45 Extreme drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept and (d) April-March (Annual).


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Figure 3.46 Moderate to extreme drought susceptibility maps for (a) Dry Season (b) Wet Season (c) June-Sept. and (d) April-March (Annual).


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Three stations (Saravanh, Xayaboury and Luang Prabang) contains nearly three decades of precipitation data so moderate to extreme decadal drought susceptibility maps for these stations are prepared based on the probability of occurrence of droughts (Figure 3.47(a) and (b)). Decadal variation of probability of occurrence of droughts in different decades in each station and amongst the stations can be compared from these figures. As per the empirical definition of low and high drought susceptibility (defined above) each station has suffered one high susceptible drought in wet season either in 1st or second decade where as high susceptible drought has occurred only once at Xaboury in the 1st decade in dry season.

In Saravanh drought susceptibility has reduced below low susceptible class in last two decades from low and high susceptible class in first decade during dry wet season respectively. Similarly in Luang Prabrang drought susceptibility has gradually decreased from high susceptible to below low susceptible during wet season. On the contrary, drought susceptibility in dry season at Luang Prabrang has increase to low susceptible category. In Xayaboury, drought susceptibility has been observed to vary randomly over the decades in two seasons lacking clear signal.

Figure 3.47 Decadal variation of Moderate to extreme (decadal) drought susceptibility maps for three stations in (a) Dry Season and (b) Wet Season (The lower, middle and upper circles in each station corresponds to 1st (1980-1989), 2nd (1990-1999) and last (2000-2009)

decade respectively)

3.6.9 CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

Annual time series of occurrences drought of different categories and its aggregate in different durations is depicted in Figure 3.48 to Figure 3.51. Summary of drought years and fraction (percentage) of stations affected by the drought in different duration is presented in Table 3.11. Note that the period is limited from 1993 (or 1994) to 2008, when data is available from most (at least eleven stations out of sixteen) of the stations. This is done to avoid disproportionate weightage of individual station in analysis when data is available from only a few stations.

Drought is observed in more than half (50%) of the stations only in 2005 for dry season and in 1998 for June-Sept. period, while drought spread is always less than 50% in wet season and April-March period. Similarly it is observed in many (25-50%) stations in 3-4 years in different duration, while it is observed in some (10-25%) stations in 1-4 years in different duration. Spread of drought is limited to only a few (<10%) stations in 3-5 years in different seasons.

Drought is not observed in any station in about one third of the years in wet season and April-March period where as it is not observed in any station in about one quarter and one fifth of the years in June-Sept. period and dry season respectively. So likelihood of drought occurrence in one or more stations is highest in dry season and least in wet season.

Table 3.11 Summary of drought occurrence and its coverage

% of Stations

Dry Season Wet Season June- September April – March (Annual)

None 2000, 2001, 2003 1996, 1999, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2005

1996, 2002, 2004, 2005 1997, 2000, 2001, 2003, 2005, 2006

< 10 1996, 1997, 2002, 2006, 2008

1994, 1997, 2001 1994, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2000, 2001

1995, 1996, 1998, 2002

10-25 1998, 2007 1995, 2003, 2007, 2008

2003, 2008 2008

25-50 1994, 1995, 1999, 2004

1993, 1998, 2006 1993, 2006, 2007 1994, 1999, 2004, 2007

>50 2005 Nil 1998 Nil

(a) (b)


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Figure 3.48 Drought occurrence in dry season

Figure 3.49 Drought occurrence in wet season

Figure 3.50 Drought occurrence in June to September

Figure 3.51 Drought occurrence in April to March (Annual)

Drought Occurance in Dry Season

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

Year

% o

f Sta

tions

Mod Sev Ext

Drought Occurance in Wet Season

0

10

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50

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70

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SPI was used for drought analysis at different time scale. It is found that drought of all categories occur in Lao PDR in all four durations. Moderate drought frequently occurs in all the durations but severe and extreme droughts are less common except for severe drought in dry season where it has occurred many times. Drought was relatively more frequent in first and third 5-year period of analysis while there was lull in between.

Probability of occurrence of drought of any category is found to be highest (27%) at Phalan in dry season where as it is found to be highest (25-27%) at Phiengluang in other three durations, however it is to be noted that both the stations contains only about one decade of data. Because of data paucity in coverage and large variability in data availability amongst stations it was difficult to make conclusive statement on drought prone area however southern parts central region and northern parts of central and southern parts of northern regions appear as drought susceptible areas in dry and wet seasons respectively.

Rainfall thresholds of different locations and in different seasons/duration provide quantitative benchmark to evaluate temporal and regional variation of precipitation in near real time basis and take appropriate adaptive/mitigation measures based on this information. This might also provide valuable insight to planers and decision makers in prioritizing the areas for development of irrigation projects, managing water resource and designing appropriate crop diversification schemes for different regions/ seasons.

Finally, the output products of this study provide an essential step toward addressing the issue to drought vulnerability in the country and can be used in guide for drought management strategies for mitigation purposes. Identifying regional vulnerabilities can lead to adjustment in practices in water-dependent sectors and can help decision makers to take the drought into account from hazard perspective and include the concept of drought vulnerability into natural resource planning.

Following recommendations are prescribed based on the present study:

Importance should be given to improve the quantity and quality of climatic data so as to enhance the

quality of drought hazard assessment of Laos. Priority should be given to establish stations in data sparse region so to get homogeneous distribution

of the stations. Special, attention should be given in northern Laos. Emphasis should be given for Installation of the equipments to measure water holding capacity and

wilting point (soil properties) of different type of soils of Lao PDR to calculate SMI (Soil Moisture Index) simultaneously with SPI.

Study on wet and dry spells of one week, two weeks or three weeks and so on should be carried out to monitor agricultural drought.

Develop Meteorological, Agricultural and Hydrological drought declaration criteria for Lao PDR. Study on drought in Laos by using remote sensing data should be promoted. As more data become available, drought susceptibility maps and threshold rainfall for drought could

be upgraded. Ideally, at least 30 years of continuous, reliable and common data set for each province should be needed to have better analysis and assessment of drought hazard from which drought susceptible areas of Lao PDR would be identified more accurately.


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3.7 STORM HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.7.1 BACKGROUND

A storm is any disturbed state of an astronomical body’s atmosphere, especially affecting its surface, and strongly implying severe weather (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Storm). Based on the past history, the country of Lao PDR has witnessed several storms from tropical depression (0 – 62 km/hr) to very strong storm (category 3 which has its velocity of 178 – 209 km/hr). The storms track of past event from 1951 to 2006 are depicted in Figure 3.52

The recent storm which hit the country was so- called Ketsana. Tropical Storm Ketsana hit southern Laos on 29 September 2009. The storm brought heavy rains and strong winds, causing heavy flooding in the provinces of Xekong, Attepeu, Savannakhet, Champassak, and Saravan. Houses, crops, and roads, and other infrastructure were severely damaged by the rains.

Figure 3.52 Storm tracks of past event from year 1951 – 2006 (Source: (TMD, 2006))

3.7.2 MAP CONTENT

Storm track map and its return period have been developed in Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, which shows distribution of intensity throughout the country. The storm track and return period maps have been prepared for 10, 20, 30 and 50 years return period. The storm track map from year 1979 - 2009 may be referred at Figure 3.53

Figure 3.53 Storm tracks of past event in Lo PDR from year 1979 – 2009


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3.7.3 APPLICATION OF STORM MAP IN DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT

Storm maps have been developed at national scale for Lao PDR. Storms prone areas have been delineated at province level based on the return period of the past event. This storm maps are developed for several purposes, such as:

• Storm maps will be helpful for physical and infrastructural development in the country. The map will help the policymakers and decision makers to understand the severity of potential storm and take necessary action to sustain the development through introducing necessary programs and measures.

• All the map results would be useful for the planning and design department to make decisions. These maps would provide a basis for the government for storm prediction and estimation of disaster damage.

• Most important sectors like education, health, housing, lifelines and transportation need special attention for storm safety. The storm zones will provide fare understanding about expected performance of structures during storm and necessary measures to protect the structures.

• The zones will further help the local urban government to introduce and enforce building byelaws and building codes to protect the urban infrastructure.

• The map will help national and international NGOs to prioritize the disaster risk reduction strategies.

3.7.4 DATA SOURCES

The current storm track and expected return period maps have been developed based on data available from storm/typhoon- related International Agency so-called Joint Typhoon Warning Center, USA. Additional effort haves been made to collect the data from the focal departments and established authentic sources. The parameters are classified into following categories with their sources.

• Main data source for the storm tracking map is from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC, USA) (http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/wpindex.html).

• TMD, 2006, Storm and typhoon from year 1950-2006 in Thailand, Thai Meteorological Department, Thailand 2006.

3.7.5 METHODOLOGY

The present storms track map for Lao PDR has been developed based on the best storm track data provided by Joint Typhoon Warning Center(JTWC, 2010) The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale ( S-SHS) classifies the storm based on the wind velocity on a scale of one ( I) to five (V). The lowest velocity is 119 – 153 km/h , while the highest wind velocity is corresponding to > 250 km/h. Under the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale, there are two additional classification of storm are : tropical depression ( 0 – 62 km/h) and tropical storm ( 63 – 117 km/h ).

The S-SHS map for Lao PDR derived from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, JTWC, USA are in turn classified into 5 storm categories for this study: category 3( 178 – 209 km/h), category 2( 154 – 177

km/h), Category 1 ( 119 – 153 km/h), Tropical Storm ( 63 – 118 km/h) and Tropical Depression (0-62 km/h). The methodology used to develop the storm maps of Lao PDR may be referred at Figure 3.54

The storm tracking map for Lao PDR has been developed by converting the points downloaded from the JTWC website into polyline. The JTWC provided the best storm track data for 30 years (from year 1979 to 2009). Attribute of the track data, such as: velocity, name and type of storm have been assigned using GIS tool and were used for storm tracking map development. The return period maps of storm in Lao PDR have been developed based on the 30 years past event by generating a 100 x 100 km grid. The overlaying of the storm points and extraction of the maximum velocity for each grid has been done to calculate the return period for the expected storm. The return values of wind velocity for storm for period of 30 years from 1979 to 2009 are estimated based on Gumbel distribution method to come up with the expected return period maps of storm. The return period maps of storm as results may be referred at Figure 3.57.

Figure 3.54 Flowchart showing the methodology of storms mapping


Page 85 of 97


There are two maps which show the storm track and expected return period of storms.The storm track map shows spatial distibution of several storms which hit Lao PDR from year 1979 to 2009. The return period of maps consist of 10 years return period, 20 years return period, 30 years return period and 50 years return period. Province boundary is demarcated for detailed susceptibility in specific region. Description of colors can be referred in Figure 3.55

Figure 3.55 Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale


The storm return period maps show areas of affected by expected storm. The storm return period maps for different return periods were overlaid with province map. Results provided area and the type of storm based on wind velocity covered in respective province. For analysis purpose, the four storm return period maps and area covered in various provinces were worked out.

For 10 years return period, there are 10 % of probability for some area of Khammouane Province and small part of Savannakhet Province will be hit by a storm which categorized as class 1 ( 119-153 km/hr). Figure 3.56A. shows the spatial distribution of the area which has 10 % probability hit by the certain type of storm within 10 years return period. While figure 4b.xxxx shows the area percentage of each province in Lao PDR which has the 10 % of probability hit by the certain type of storm categorized as tropical depression ( < 62 km/hr ), tropical storm ( 63 -118 km/hr) and class 1 ( 119-153 km/hr).

Within 20 years return period, Khammouane province is still the most prone province in the country of Lao PDR. There are 5 % of probability for some area of Khammouane Province will be hit by a storm which categorized as tropical storm ( 63 -118 km/hr) , class 1 ( 119-153 km/hr) and class 2 ( 154-177 km/hr ). While some other provinces like Savannakhet, Champassack and Attapeu , for about 10-20 % of its area are located in the zone of class 1. It can be seen from Figure 3.56B, within 20 years return period that most of provinces in the country are prone to storm which categorized as tropical depression and tropical storm. These two types of storm are considered as the lowest class in term of its wind velocity.

Within 30 years return period, there are four type of storm which are expected to hit some area in the country of Lao PDR. Those are categorized as tropical depression, tropical storm, class 1 and class 2. Area in Khammouane Province which falls under the zone –affected by storm class 2 is increasing from 5 % in 20 years return period to 20 %. It can be seen from Figure 3.56C. The number of province which falls under the zone-affected by storm class 1 ( 119 -153 km/hr ) are also increased although the probability of being affected is only small ( 3.3 % ). Some area in Khammouane, Savannakhet, Champassack, Attapeu, Xekong and small part of eastern Houaphan are located in this zone of class 1.

Within 50 years return period, there is a very damaging of storm which categorized as class 3 ( 178 – 209 km/hr) is expected to hit some area in Khammouane Province. It has to be anticipated although the probability of this type of storm likely to be happened is very small ( 2 % ). It can be seen from Figure 3.56D that there two provinces which have area falling under a zone-affected by a storm class 2. Those are Khammouanne and Savannakhet Provinces.


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Figure 3.56 Showing Percentage of Area Affected by Storm in different return period A)10 years return period B) 20 years return period C) 30 years return period and D) 50 years return period


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Figure 3.57 Storm distribution in Lao PDR for Different return period from year 1979-2009


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3.7.8 RECOMMENDATIONS • Storm hazard assessment for Lao PDR have been done at the national level based on 10 years return

period, 20 years return period, 30 years return period and 50 years return period. The study has been used secondary data, primarily from Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC, 2010) Therefore, the results are mainly based on the data of the best track storm provided from year 1979 to 2009. Thus, the result can only be used as a rough reference for storm prediction in the country of Lao PDR. Since Lao PDR is frequently affected by storm, it is recommended to combine the result from this study with more detailed data related with storm in the past events which may can be collected focal department and organization in Lao PDR. The detailed storm hazard assessment maps will help policy maker, planner, decision maker and related actors to better plan and implement an effective system related to storm hazard management.

• In order to get a clear and more detailed picture of the storm hazard assessment in Lao PDR, it is recommended to integrate and utilize the networking system of storm monitoring and observation which include the neighboring countries of Lao PDR, such as: Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and China.

• It is also recommended to carry out detail study and mapping on specific location where the storm are most likely happened based on the result and methodology as mentioned above.


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3.8 MULTI-HAZARD ASSESSMENT

3.8.1 BACKGROUND

The Hazard assessment has been carried out for seven (7) types of hazards. Each of the hazards is discussed in detail in chapter three. The study in earlier sections reveals that Lao PDR is prone to various kinds of hazards including flood, landslide, earthquake, drought, epidemic, UXO and storm. There is a dire need to diagnose all possible hazards in the country and evolve strategy to mitigate the negative impacts of prevailing multiple hazards. The idea behind the multi-hazard assessment (Multi-HA) is to identify and compare the severity of various hydro-meteorological, geological and health hazards, understand the distribution of those hazards in the country, identify multiple regions, their causative factors and identify the regions and districts for intensifying mitigation intervention.

3.8.2 APPLICATION OF MULTI-HAZARD ASSESSMENT (MULTI-HA)

• Multi-HA provides necessary background for policy development, awareness and knowledge about disaster risk reduction.

• Multi-HA provides better understanding about correlation and linkage between various hazards and causative factors.

• The multi hazard assessment has been carried out at two scales including provincial and district level. The provincial level hazard assessment is one of the important tool for national focal agencies and departments for DRR interventions. The district level multi hazard assessment will help provincial government to introduce appropriate DRR programs and projects.

• The assessment facilitates better cooperation between various agencies working in the area of hazard mitigation and management. For example, NDMO is overall managing the disasters, however, Department of Mines and Geology, Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Department of Road and many more agencies are working in geological and hydro-meteorological hazards. The Multi-HA provides conducive platform for communication, cooperation and collaboration towards creating disaster resilient society.

3.8.3 SCENARIOS AND CRITERIA FOR MULTI HAZARD ASSESSMENT

The Multi-Hazards Assessment is developed based on a certain scenario comprising of criteria selected from the seven hazards in Lao PDR which have been discussed earlier. The scenario and its selected criteria may refer to Table 3.12. Based on below stated criteria a scenario is created.

Table 3.12 Criteria for multi-hazards assessment scenario

Type of Hazard Criteria to be considered

1. Flood 100 years return period flood where the area is categorized as inundated area with water level > 2 m

2. Landslide For area which categorized as "Very high and High" and > 10 % of its area are falling either under “very high” or “high” class

3. Earthquake which categorized as "Degree VII”at Modified Mercali Scale

4. Drought Dry session-Moderate to extreme drought susceptibility where its area are falling under 20% or above of probability of having drought

5. Epidemic Trend of the number of cases increased

6. UXO UXO density is above 1/sq km

7. Storm 50 years return period storm where the area is categorized as class 2 and class 3


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3.8.4 METHODOLOGY FOR MULTI HAZARD ASSESSMENT

In principal, the scenario of multi-hazard assessment has been done for the seven hazards with selected criteria as mentioned in Table 3.12.Overlaying and weighing have been done by using GIS tools. Multi-hazard for each province have been resulted in by summing up the weigh for each hazard. The method for the multi-hazard scenario development has been presented in Figure 3.58. The results are presented in tabular forms for reference (Table 3.13).

Figure 3.58 Method for multi-hazard assessment (Scenario based)

3.8.5 ANALYSIS OF MULTI-HAZARD ASSESSMENT Seven type of hazards criterion have been used to develop the Multi –Hazards Assessment based on a certain scenario as mentioned in previous section. The results of the scenario-based multi-hazard assessment are presented in Figure 3.59 and Table 3.13. The analysis result shows that the total number of hazards in each province is ranging from 1 to 6 types. It can be concluded from the result that Khamuane Province is the only province in Lao PDR which has the highest number of potential hazards ( six type of hazards ). The six type of hazards are flood, landslide, drought, storm, epidemic and UXO. analysis further reveals that there are five provinces in Lao PDR which only have 1 type of hazard. These provinces are Champassack,Huaphanh,Vientiane Mun., Xayabury and Xiengkhuang. Referring to Table 3.13, Champassack province and Vientiane Mun. are prone to flood, Huaphanh and Xiengkhuang are prone to epidemic, while Xayabury province is prone to Earthquake hazard. The district level Multi-HA shows that out of 141 districts in Lao PDR, 56 % are defined as epidemic-prone area, 34.7 % are flood-prone area, 29.8 % are earthquake-prone area, 19.1 % are landslide-prone area, 4.9 % are storm-prone area and 4.9% are UXO-prone area. Detail of each district and type of hazard may refer to Table 3.14 Figure 3.60 shows the distribution of multi-hazard maps for the country at district level.


• In this study, multi-hazard zoning has been developed based on provincial level hazard assessment. The results of this study can be used as a reference at national level. It is recommended for focal technical departments to conduct more detailed study for each hazard, for instance, at district level.

• The multiple hazard prone provinces should be given first priority for disaster mitigation interventions. It is recommended that the focal departments, agencies and ministries should give special emphasis for disaster mitigation in multiple hazard provinces/districts.

• Most multiple hazard prone districts in Khamuane Province should be given priority for disaster intervention. However it is necessary to check the exposure of lives and necessary infrastructure in multiple hazard districts. The details of exposure to live and infrastructure to multiple hazard prone districts will be discussed in next chapter.

• The multi-hazard map should be the base map for all necessary disaster risk reduction intervention.


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Figure 3.59 Map showing the number and type of hazard at provincial-wise (scenario based)

Figure 3.60 Map showing the number of hazard at district-wise (scenario based)


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Table 3.13 Number of hazards at provincial-wise (scenario based)

Province Number

of District

Type of Hazard Number of HazardEarthquake Flood Landslide Drought Storm Epidemic UXO

x √ x √ x √ x √ x √ x √ x √ Attapeu 5 5 5 1 4 5 5 5 5 3 Bokeo 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 Borikhamxay 6 6 3 3 3 3 3 3 6 6 6 3 Champassack 10 10 6 4 10 10 10 10 10 1 Huaphanh 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 1 Khamuane 9 9 6 3 4 5 1 8 4 5 9 6 3 6 Luang Prabang 11 2 9 7 4 9 2 9 2 11 11 11 5 Luangnamtha 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 2 Oudomxay 7 7 7 6 1 3 4 7 7 7 4 Phongsaly 7 7 5 2 6 1 7 7 7 7 3 Saravane 8 8 3 5 6 2 6 2 8 8 7 1 5 Savannakhet 15 15 6 9 15 9 6 13 2 15 12 3 4 Sekong 4 4 1 3 1 3 4 4 4 4 3 Vientiane 10 8 2 7 3 8 2 9 1 10 10 10 5 Vientiane Mun. 9 9 2 7 9 9 9 9 9 1 Xayabury 10 3 7 10 10 10 10 10 10 1 Xaysomboun SR 5 5 4 1 1 4 5 5 5 5 2 Xiengkhuang 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 Total 141 99 42 92 49 114 27 115 26 134 7 62 79 134 7

Note:

x = number of district NOT affected by certain hazard

√ = number of district affected by certain hazard


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Table 3.14 Number of hazards at district-wise (scenario based)

Province District Drought Epidemic Earthquake Flood Landslide Storm UXO number of hazard Vientiane

Mun. Chanthabouri x x x √ x x x 1 Sikhottabong x x x √ x x x 1 Xaisettha x x x √ x x x 1 Sisattanak x x x x x x x 0 Naxaythong x x x √ x x x 1 Xaithani x x x √ x x x 1 Hatxayfong x x x √ x x x 1 Sangthong x x x x x x x 0 Pak-Ngum x x x √ x x x 1

Phongsaly Phongsali x x √ x √ x x 2 Mai x x √ √ x x x 2 Khoa x x √ √ x x x 2 Samphan x x √ x x x x 1 Boun-Nua x x √ x x x x 1 Gnot-Ou x x √ x x x x 1 Boun-Tai x x √ x x x x 1

Luangnamtha Louang-Namtha x √ √ x x x x 2 Sing x √ √ x x x x 2 Long x √ √ x x x x 2 Viangphoukha x √ √ x x x x 2 Nale x √ √ x x x x 2

Oudomxay Xai √ √ √ x x x x 3 La √ √ √ x √ x x 4 Namo x √ √ x x x x 2 Nga √ √ √ x x x x 3 Beng √ √ √ x x x x 3 Houn x √ √ x x x x 2 Pakbeng x √ √ x x x x 2

Bokeo Houayxay x √ √ x x x x 2 Tonpheung x √ √ x x x x 2 Meung x √ √ x x x x 2 Pha-Oudom x √ √ x x x x 2 Paktha x √ √ x x x x 2

Luang Prabang

Louangphrabang x √ √ x x x x 2 Xiang-Ngeun √ √ √ x √ x x 4 Nan x √ √ x x x x 2 Pak-Ou x √ √ √ x x x 3 Nambak x √ √ √ x x x 3 Ngoy x √ √ √ x x x 3 Pakxeng x √ √ √ x x x 3 Phonxai x √ √ x x x x 2 Chomphet x √ √ x x x x 2


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Province District Drought Epidemic Earthquake Flood Landslide Storm UXO number of hazard Viangkham x √ x x x x x 1 Phoukhoun √ √ x x √ x x 3

Huaphanh Xam-Nua x √ x x x x x 1 Xiangkho x √ x x x x x 1 Viangthong x √ x x x x x 1 Viangxai x √ x x x x x 1 Houamuang x √ x x x x x 1 Xam-Tai x √ x x x x x 1 Sopbao x √ x x x x x 1 Et x √ x x x x x 1

Xayabury Xaignabouri x x √ x x x x 1 Khop x x √ x x x x 1 Hongsa x x √ x x x x 1 Ngeun x x √ x x x x 1 Xianghon x x √ x x x x 1 Phiang x x √ x x x x 1 Paklai x x √ x x x x 1 Kenthao x x x x x x x 0 Thongmixai x x x x x x x 0 Boten x x x x x x x 0

Xiengkhuang Pek x √ x x x x x 1 Kham x √ x x x x x 1 Nonghet x √ x x x x x 1 Khoun x √ x x x x x 1 Mok-Mai x √ x x x x x 1 Phoukout x √ x x x x x 1 Phaxai x √ x x x x x 1

Vientiane Phonhong x √ x √ x x x 2 Thourakhom x √ x √ x x x 2 Keo-Oudom x √ x x x x x 1 Kasi √ √ √ x √ x x 4 Vangvieng x √ x x √ x x 2 Fuang x √ x x x x x 1 xanakham x √ x x x x x 1 Met x √ √ x x x x 2 Hinheup x √ x x x x x 1 Viangkham x √ x √ x x x 2

Borikhamxay Pakxan x x x √ x x x 1 Thaphabat x x x √ x x x 1 Pakkading √ x x x √ x x 2 Borikhan x x x √ x x x 1 Khamkeut √ x x x √ x x 2 Viangthong √ x x x √ x x 2


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Province District Drought Epidemic Earthquake Flood Landslide Storm UXO number of hazard Khamuane Thakhek √ √ x x √ x x 3

Mahaxai √ √ x √ √ √ √ 6 Nongbok x √ x √ x x x 2 Hinboun √ √ x x √ x x 3 Gnommalat √ √ x x √ √ x 4 Boualapha √ √ x x x √ √ 4 Nakay √ √ x x √ √ x 4 Xebangfai √ √ x √ x x x 3 Xaibouathong √ √ x x x √ √ 4

Savannakhet Khanthabouri x x x x x x x 0 Outhoumphon x x x x x x x 0 Atsaphangthong x x x x x x x 0 Phin √ x x √ x x x 2 Xepon √ x x √ x √ √ 4 Nong √ x x √ x x √ 3 Thapangthong x x x √ x x x 1 Songkhon x x x √ x x x 1 Champhon x x x √ x x x 1 Xonbouri x x x √ x x x 1 Xaibouri x x x √ x x x 1 Vilabouri √ x x x x √ √ 3 Atsaphon √ x x √ x x x 2 Xaiphouthong x x x x x x x 0 Phalanxai √ x x x x x x 1

Saravane Saravan x √ x √ x x x 2 Ta-Oy √ √ x x √ x x 3 Toumlan x √ x √ x x x 2 Lakhonpheng x √ x √ x x x 2 Vapi x √ x √ x x x 2 Khongxedon x √ x √ x x x 2 Laongam x √ x x x x x 1 Samouay √ √ x x √ x √ 4

Sekong Lamam x √ x √ √ x x 3 Karum x √ x √ √ x x 3 Dakchung x √ x x √ x x 2 Thateng x √ x √ x x x 2

Champassack Pakxe x x x √ x x x 1 Xanasomboun x x x √ x x x 1 Bachiangchareunsouk x x x √ x x x 1 Pakxong x x x √ x x x 1 Pathoumphon x x x x x x x 0 Phonthong x x x x x x x 0 Champasak x x x x x x x 0


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Province District Drought Epidemic Earthquake Flood Landslide Storm UXO number of hazard Soukhouma x x x x x x x 0 Mounlapamok x x x x x x x 0 Khong x x x x x x x 0

Attapeu Xaisettha x √ x √ √ x x 3 Samakkhixai x √ x √ √ x x 3 Sanamxai x √ x √ x x x 2 Sanxai x √ x √ √ x x 3 Phouvong x √ x √ √ x x 3

Xaysomboun SR

Xaisomboun x x x x √ x x 1 Thathom x x x x x x x 0 Hom x x x √ √ x x 2 Longxan x x x x √ x x 1 Phoun x x x x √ x x 1

Note:

x = NOT affected by certain hazard

√ = affected by certain hazard


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Annexure 1

Annexure



Annexure 3

1 ANNEXURE METHODOLOGY FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARD ASSESSMENT

1.1 INTRODUCTION

The country of Lao PDR is prone to landslides. The major triggering factor for landslides is heavy precipitation, especially in the northern provinces of Lao PDR as the topography of the northern provinces is dominated by mountainous area. Laos has a tropical monsoon climate. The climate is hot and tropical, with the rainy season between May and October when temperatures are at their highest.Landslide usually affected transportation infrastructure within moonson season in Lao. Rainfall is the main triggering factor for landslide occurrences. Other principal factors that influence landslide are slope gradient, rock condition (lithology), and land use.

1.2 MODEL FOR LANDSLIDE HAZARD EVALUATION

The methodology for landslide hazard assessment for Lao PDR adopted the landslide hazard index method consisting of several steps such as: factor selection of maps, structuring and determining the criteria and weight.

An existing landslide hazard inventory plays an important role in determining the indicators for landslide In Lao PDR, landslide inventory is still under development and does not cover the whole country. Data availability is especially relevant in developing countries, where data is scarce, disperse or not in the appropriate format. Furthermore, the level of analysis is relevant as it determines the quantity of data, in terms of area coverage and detail. National level assessment involves small-scale input data, which is generalised and which determines the type of analysis method that can be used (Abella and van Westen, 2007). Therefore the model is constrained by data availability and level of analysis.

Considering the limited data, a semi-quantitative approach has been used to come up with a national landslide hazard assessment. Landslide hazard zone is developed using a set of maps comprising of criteria selected from slope angle, land use, lithology and rainfall maps. These four maps have been overlaid using a weighing method. The final landslide hazard index was done by summing up the weight of the determined factors. The set of map and weighing factor maybe referred to Figure 1.1.

Figure 1.1. Semi quantitative framework for generating landslide hazard map


Annexure 4

1.2.1 SLOPE ANGLE

Slope is vital factor in landslide susceptibility mapping which reveal landscape ruggedness. Slope angle factor is weighted 0.4 (40%) contribution to landslide hazard as referred in Figure 1.1.

Digital elevation model from ASTER DEM (METI, 2009) is used for producing slope angle map. ASTER Global DEM is released by Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and industry (METI) and NASA on June 29, 2009. The data resolution is 1 arc second, approximately 30 by 30 m per data (pixel). The data can be downloaded freely from http://www.gdem.aster.ersdac.or.jp/index.jsp.

Slope angle is classified into 7 classes as observed in Table 1.1. Each class has their own ranking value which represents their susceptibility to landslide occurrence. Ranking range from 0 to 1, with value of 1 represent a very susceptible area to landslide hazard.

Table 1.1. Slope classes and ranking

No Slope angle Ranking1 0-5 0.202 5-12 0.403 12-18 0.604 18-24 0.805 24-40 1.006 40-45 0.607 45-90 0.60

The distribution of slope angle in spatial manner can be observed in Figure 1.2. Higher slope angle are clustered in north part of Lao and in the border with Vietnam. Low angle slope are concentrated nearby Mekong River, especially in the border with Thailand.

Figure 1.2. Slope angle map of Lao.


Annexure 5

1.2.2 LAND USE

Land use factor characterizes land cover on top of landscape. This feature is important in relation with landslide occurrence. Open area and bare land usually are more susceptible to landslide. Water saturated area such as paddy field is also susceptible to landslide. The land use data in Lao is obtained from National Geographic Department (NGD) of Lao of year 2007, with latest update in 2009.

Land use is weighted 0.2 (20%) contribution to landslide hazard as referred in Figure 1.1.

Table 1.2. Land use classification and ranking

No Landuse Description Ranking

1 Agricultural Plantation 0.80

2 Bamboo 0.60

3 Barren Land and Rock 1.00

4 Coniferious Forest 0.205 Dry Dipterocarp 0.406 Dry evergreen 0.607 Forest Plantation 0.208 Grass Land 0.80

9 Mixed Bord Leaved Coniferous 0.20

10 Mixed Deciduous 0.4011 Other land 0.6012 Ray 0.6013 Rice Paddy 1.0014 Savannah 0.6015 Scrub 0.8016 Swamp 0.2017 Unstocked Forest 0.40

18 Urban or Built up Area 0.20

Land use in Lao is classified into 18 classes as referred in Table 1.2. The rank varied from 0.2 to 1, with value of 1 represents the most susceptible to landslide occurrence. Spatial distribution of land use can be observed in Figure 1.3 with dominance of forest and agriculture area.

Figure 1.3. Land use of Lao.


Annexure 6

1.2.3 LITHOLOGY(ROCKS)

Rocks (lithology) distribution is also important to landslide hazard assessment. Bedrock and soil cover of landscape is the landslide material itself. More loose material will yield a more susceptible zone for landslide hazard, while more compact rock will be more resistant to landslide occurrence. Lithology is weighted 0.2 (20%) contribution to landslide hazard as referred in Figure 1.1.

Lithology map of Lao is acquired from Department of Mines and Geology of Lao. The map consists of twelve (12) lithology classes. Susceptibility ranking is ranging from 0.2 to 1, with value of 1 as the most susceptible to landslide hazard. The symbol column can be related with spatial distribution of lithology in Figure 1.4.

Table 1.3. Lithology classes and ranking

No Rock (lithology) Ranking Symbol1 Ultrabasic rocks, peridotite and serpentinite 0.40 U2 Granite and lesser granodiorite and quartz diorite 0.20 G3 Gneisses and schists 0.40 Pr

4

Undifferentiated lower devonian in NE less generally metamorphosed to phyllites, schist and marble. Some basic meta-volcanics. Ultrabasic lenses occur in a narrow belt in the NE 0.60 Pz1

5Mainly marine rocks, in places weakly metamorphosed. Limestone commonly occur, and may be more or less recrystallized to marble 0.60 Pz2

6

Mainly marine, terestrial in certain area with coal in the east, limestone are the dominant rocks of marine facies in teh west and south clastic rocks dominate 0.60 Pz3

7

Mainly marine, terestrial in certain area. Mostly clastic sediments, some limestone. Volcanic rocks mainly acidic (rhyolite, dacite) widespread in N adn SE 0.80 Mz1

8Predominantly terestrial sediments, mainly sandstones. Thin coals in places 0.80 Mz2

9Lower part mainly sandstone, predominantly line-grained towards the top, with thick evavorites 0.60 Mz3

10 Terestrial deposit preserved in intermontane valleys, some lignite 0.80 N11 Basalt including alkaline varieties (basanite, limbrugite etc) 0.40 QB12 Aluvial deposit of mekong river and its tributaries 1 Q

Figure 1.4. Lithology (rock type) of Lao


Annexure 7

1.2.4 PRECIPITATION

Rainfall is triggering factor for landslide hazard. Storm season usually accompanied with flood and landslide hazard in Asia region. Therefore rainfall is crucial factor for landslide hazard assessment. Rainfall is weighted 0.2 (20%) contribution for landslide hazard.

The data used for analysis is average rainfall in August which was collected from Meteorological Department of Lao. The month of August showed highest value of rainfall compared to other and correlated with landslide and flood occurrence. August also conventionally is the peak in monsoon season, when flood and landslide occurred through whole region with monsoon season.

As can been seen in Table 1.4., rainfall is classified into 5 classes.. Ranking for rainfall is ranging from 0.2 to 1, where value of 1 represents the most susceptible to landslide occurrence. Spatial distribution of rainfall can be seen in Figure 1.5, where intense rainfall occurred in north of Vientiane and in south western area of Nepal.

Table 1.4. Rainfall classes and ranking

No Rainfall (mm) Ranking1 216 -303 0.22 303 - 395 0.43 395 - 480 0.64 480 - 566 0.85 566 - 736 1

Figure 1.5. Rainfall in August (in mm).


Annexure 8

1.3 LANDSLIDE SUSCEPTIBILITY MAP

Susceptibility map of landslide is created by overlaying and summing up each ranking according to its factor weight. The methodology is illustrated in Figure 1.6. Susceptibility is resulted from the summation of each effective weight in every factor.

Effective Weight:Ranking x Weight

For each grid (pixel)

Susceptibility=Effective Weight Slope +Effective Weight Land use +Effective Weight Lithology +Effective Weight Rainfall

Susceptibility Value:1 = Negligible2 = Low3 = Medium4 = High5 = Very High

Figure 1.6. Illustration for calculating landslide susceptibility.

The output map can be observed in Figure 1.7. Susceptibility is classified into 5 classes from negligible to very high class. Medium and low class are relative dominant in Lao PDR.

Figure 1.7. Landslide susceptibility of Lao.

Documents

National Hazard Profile for Laos PDR