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National Multimodal Freight
Trends/Issues/Forecasts/Policy Implications
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Objectives…
Discuss emerging trends Present national freight analysis efforts including
forecasts Identify some of the emerging policy issues toward
transportation reauthorization in 2002-2003
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Emerging Freight Trends and Issues
Markets/Logistics (demand) From national markets to global markets From a manufacturing to a service economy Increased DOD reliance on commercial freight system Moving to customer dictated just-in-time delivery system
Carriers/Transportation Systems (supply) From modal fragmentation to cross-modal coordination From system construction to system optimization
Public Policy From economic deregulation to safety regulation From modal to multi-modal surface transportation policy Increased environmental accountability
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
National Highway System Intermodal Connectors - InfrastructureConstraints
NHS Connectors Poor physical condition Poor geometrics “orphan status” inadequate coordination
of investment strategies
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Source: Texas Transportation Institute
Travel Rate Congestion IndexPeak-Period Travel Times Have Increased Significantly Compared to Off-Peak Travel Times in Across the Nation
1.00
1.05
1.10
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1982 1986 1992 1997 1999
TT
I T
rave
l R
ate
Ind
ex
Very Large MetroAreas
Average 68 MetroAreas
Large Metro Areas
Medium Metro Areas
Small Metro Areas
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Public Sector(States, MPOs)
Private Sector(Shippers, Carriers)
Global
National
Regional
Local
Freight Transportation PerspectivesState and MPO focus is regional and local; private sector focus is increasingly national and global
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
National Multimodal Freight Data and Policy Analysis Framework
Approximation of current national flows Economic trade forecasts to 2020 (domestic and
international) and estimated modal components Assessment of capacity and investment implications Policy development tool for future legislation
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Total Domestic Freight Tons and ValueFreight traffic moving into, out of, and within the U.S. totaled 9.8 billion tons and $9.1 trillion in 1998- 1st approximation
0
1
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6
7
To
ns
(bil
lio
ns)
$
(tr
illi
on
s)
Truck Rail Water Air
Tons Value
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Truck Freight Flows, All CommoditiesAll truck types; highway freight density in tons
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Rail Freight Flows, All CommoditiesRail freight density in tons
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Inland Waterway Freight Flows, All Commodities Waterway freight density in tons
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Air-Freight Origins and DestinationsAll commodities, domestic airport-to-airport traffic, in tons
Origins
Destinations
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Top Gateways for International Freight Exports and imports in tons
Exports
Imports
More than 10,000,000
5,000,001 to 10,000,000
1,000,001 to 5,000,000
0 to 1,000,000
More than 50,000,00010,000,001 to 50,000,0005,000,001 to 10,000,000
2,000,001 to 5,000,000500,000 to 2,000,000
combined truck values:network flows : state flows:
Use for internat'l truck:network: states:
Office of Freight Management and OperationsOperations Core Business Unit
Federal Highway AdministrationU.S. Department of Transportation
(Tons)Network Flows
Total Combined Truck Flows(1998)
CHICAGO
C A N A D A
M E X I C O
Atlantic Ocean
Pacific Ocean
Gulf of Mexico
More than 25,000,00010,000,001 to 25,000,0005,000,001 to 10,000,0002,000,001 to 5,000,000
100,000 to 2,000,000
More than 9,000,000
3,000,001 to 9,000,000
1,000,001 to 3,000,000
0 to 1,000,000
domestic truck values:network flows: states:
50,001 to 100,000100,001 to 250,000
250,001 to 500,000
10,000 to 50,000
More than 500,000
(Tons)BEA to State Flows
BEA State
0 to 10,000
10,001 to 50,000
50,001 to 100,000
More than 100,000
Preliminary
Gulf of Mexico
Pacific Ocean
Atlantic Ocean
M E X I C O
C A N A D A
Total Combined Rail Flows(1998)
network:DOMESTIC VALUES:
Office of Freight Management and OperationsOperations Core Business Unit
states:network:
Use for internat'l rail:
0 to 10,000
10,001 to 250,000
250,001 to 500,000
More than 500,000
500,001 to 1,000,0001,000,001 to 2,000,0002,000,001 to 4,000,000
10,000 to 500,000
More than 4,000,000
5,000,001 to 10,000,000
1,000,000 to 5,000,000
More than 40,000,000
10,000,000 to 20,000,00020,000,000 to 40,000,000
0 to 1,000,000
1,000,001 to 2,000,000
2,000,001 to 8,000,000
More than 8,000,000
Use for IL and TX:
network: states:50,000 to 500,000
500,001 to 1,000,0001,000,000 to 2,000,0002,000,000 to 4,000,000More than 4,000,000
(Tons)BEA to State Flows
More than 8,000,000
2,000,001 to 8,000,000
1,000,001 to 2,000,000
0 to 1,000,000BEA State
Use for COMBINED rail:
network: states:
U.S. Department of TransportationFederal Highway Administration
More than 40,000,00020,000,000 to 40,000,00010,000,000 to 20,000,0005,000,001 to 10,000,0001,000,000 to 5,000,000
Network Flows(Tons)CHICAGO
Preliminary
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Freight Forecast Growth Rates-Trend
US Domestic: 1998-2020: 2.9% (Cumulative: 87%) 1998-2010: 3.4% 2010-2020: 2.4%
US International: 1998-2020: 3.4% (Cumulative: 107%) 1998-2010: 4.0% 2010-2020: 2.9%
International Sectors: US/Canada 1998-2020: 3.1% US/Mexico 1998-2020: 3.5% US/ROW 1998-2020: 3.4%
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
NAFTA--US/Canada Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
NAFTA--US/Mexico Truck Traffic on US Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Overseas Inland Trade: Truck Trafficon U.S. Highway Network, 2020 (Tons)
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Next StepsCapacity and Investment Analysis Assign future freight flows to modal networks Conduct highway system capacity analysis to understand
the nature of emerging constraints, e.g. nodes, corridors, gateways, connectors, metropolitan congestion
Develop illustrative multimodal case studies in selected regions of the country; e.g. Southern Calif., Chicago rail and intermodal access, Mid Atlantic rail, Pacific NW
Assess future investment requirements for Biennial Surface Transportation Condition and Performance Report to Congress in 2002.
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
The Policy Challenge
Both passenger and freight demand upon the nation’s infrastructure will increase significantly
Freight volumes will nearly double to 2020; with higher growth in some corridors and nodes
Current planning and financing methods do not adequately address freight’s unique concerns
Intermodal linkages not seamless Increased focus on safety and environmental issues Economic competitiveness at stake
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Freight Outreach Events
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
Freight Funding Options from Freight Finance Conference
Expanded eligibility or new programs Enhance the ability to co-mingle private and public
monies Expanded innovative financing programs Expanded intermodal project funding Separate programs or set asides for freight
improvements “Last Mile” program that includes all modes New sources of revenue for freight projects
Federal Highway AdministrationOffice of Freight Management and Operations
ISTEA
Intermodalism
Innovative Finance
TEA-21
Funding Increases
TIFIA
State/local freight focus
???
Intelligent Technology
Infrastructure Funding
Institutional Development
(e.g. multistate)
Efficiency Equity Effectiveness
1991 - 97 1998 - 03 2004 - ??
Toward Surface Transportation Reauthorization- Freight elements?
FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations, USDOT
http://www.ops.fhwa.dot.gov/freight
Gary Maring
Director
