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NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK (NPN). Challenges of Building a Phenological Research Infrastructure in the USA. Research Contributions. Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen, B. Reed, M. White, and T. Zhao Phenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. Menzel - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK (NPN)NETWORK (NPN)
Challenges of BuildingChallenges of Building
a Phenological Research Infrastructurea Phenological Research Infrastructure
in the USAin the USA
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Research ContributionsResearch Contributions Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen, Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen,
B. Reed, M. White, and T. ZhaoB. Reed, M. White, and T. Zhao Phenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. MenzelPhenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. Menzel Climate data from Chinese Meteorological Climate data from Chinese Meteorological
Administration, German Weather Service (DWD), Administration, German Weather Service (DWD), Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki WodnejInstytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej(Poland), and USA National Climatic Data Center(Poland), and USA National Climatic Data Center
NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224 Base maps from ESRI dataBase maps from ESRI data
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Definition of PhenologyDefinition of Phenology PhenologyPhenology which is derived from the Greek word which is derived from the Greek word phainophaino meaning to show or to appear, is the study of meaning to show or to appear, is the study of plant and animal life cycle events, which are plant and animal life cycle events, which are triggered by environmental changes, especially triggered by environmental changes, especially temperature. Thus, timings of phenological events temperature. Thus, timings of phenological events are ideal indicators of global change impacts.are ideal indicators of global change impacts.
SeasonalitySeasonality is a related term, referring to similar is a related term, referring to similar non-biological events, such as timing of the fall non-biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes. lakes.
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Phenological ResearchPhenological Research Traditional approach: agriculture-Traditional approach: agriculture-
centered, and local-scale eventscentered, and local-scale events Recent approach: Earth systems Recent approach: Earth systems
interactions, and global-scale eventsinteractions, and global-scale events Question: What roles for phenology in Question: What roles for phenology in
current and future agricultural current and future agricultural research?research?
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Decadal Averaged Cherry Bloom in Kyoto, JapanDecadal Averaged Cherry Bloom in Kyoto, Japan
Data Source: web file (no longer available)
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Mean onset of spring phenophases in the Mean onset of spring phenophases in the International Phenological Gardens (Europe)International Phenological Gardens (Europe)
Source: Menzel et al. 2001, Global Change Biology, Figure 1
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesCloned lilac first leaf and first bloom datesat a single station in Vermontat a single station in Vermont
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Simulated phenology developed from lilac and Simulated phenology developed from lilac and honeysuckle data combined with climate data honeysuckle data combined with climate data
Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Plate 4 (updated)
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Critical Research AreasCritical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Atmosphere-Biosphere
InteractionsInteractions Long-term Organism Long-term Organism
response to Climate Changeresponse to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases Global Phenology Databases
for monitoring and for monitoring and managementmanagement
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Integrated ApproachIntegrated Approach Satellite Observations Satellite Observations
(AVHRR-NDVI)(AVHRR-NDVI) Indicator Species Indicator Species
PhenologyPhenology Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Lilac First LeafLilac First Leaf
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Lilac First BloomLilac First Bloom
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
DMA NDVI Start of Season 1995DMA NDVI Start of Season 1995(Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 74, March 15(Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 74, March 15thth))
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Critical Research AreasCritical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Atmosphere-Biosphere
InteractionsInteractions Long-term Organism Long-term Organism
response to Climate Changeresponse to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases Global Phenology Databases
for monitoring and for monitoring and managementmanagement
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Diurnal Range Change with Lilac First LeafDiurnal Range Change with Lilac First Leaf
- 5 6 - 4 2 - 2 8 - 1 4 0 1 4 2 8 4 2 5 6Days After First Leaf Date
7 . 5
8 . 5
9 . 5
1 0 . 5
1 1 . 5
1 2 . 5
1 3 . 5
1 4 . 5
1 5 . 5
Diu
rna
l R
an
ge
(°C
)Snow DateM ean = -27.9s.e. = 1.6 +
Freeze D ateM ean = +12.5s.e. = 0.9 +
Source: Schwartz 1996, Figure 3
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Comparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeComparative Net Ecosystem Exchange
-70 -56 -42 -28 -14 0 14 28 42 56 70Days after Spring Index First Bloom
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Mea
n D
aily
NE
E (
um
ol/m
2 /s)
Oak Ridge, TNH. Forest, MAM-Monroe, IN
Park Falls, W I
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Comparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeComparative Net Ecosystem ExchangeAnnual “Downturn” RatesAnnual “Downturn” Rates
-10 0 10 20 30 40Days after SI First Bloom that NEE = -5
-40
-20
0
20
40
Day
s af
ter
SI F
irst
Blo
om
th
at N
EE
= 0
Oak Ridge, TNH. Forest, MAM-Monroe, INPark Falls, W I
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Critical Research AreasCritical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Atmosphere-Biosphere
InteractionsInteractions Long-term Organism Long-term Organism
response to Climate Changeresponse to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases Global Phenology Databases
for monitoring and for monitoring and managementmanagement
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Terrestrial Biosphere Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamic Change DetectionDynamic Change Detection
Satellite PhenologySatellite Phenology Simulated Phenology (Models)Simulated Phenology (Models) Cloned Species PhenologyCloned Species Phenology Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Satellite PhenologySatellite Phenology Advantages: Advantages:
1) Global coverage; 1) Global coverage; 2) Integrated signal 2) Integrated signal
Limitations: Limitations: 1) Short period-of-record; 1) Short period-of-record; 2) Cloud cover interference; 2) Cloud cover interference; 3) Interpretation issues; 3) Interpretation issues; 4) Small set of measures 4) Small set of measures
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
SMN NDVI Start of Season 1995SMN NDVI Start of Season 1995 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 124, May 4 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 124, May 4thth))
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Simulated PhenologySimulated Phenology
Advantages: Advantages: 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 2) Standardized 2) Standardized responseresponse
Limitations: Limitations: 1) Model inadequacies; 1) Model inadequacies; 2) Small set of events and plants2) Small set of events and plants
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Spring Indices Spring Indices Suite of MeasuresSuite of Measures
First -2.2First -2.2ooC freeze date in AutumnC freeze date in Autumn Composite chill date (SI models)Composite chill date (SI models) First leaf date (SI models)First leaf date (SI models) First bloom date (SI models)First bloom date (SI models) Last -2.2Last -2.2ooC freeze date in Spring C freeze date in Spring -2.2-2.2ooC Freeze periodC Freeze period Damage index value (first leaf – last frost)Damage index value (first leaf – last frost) Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve
average monthly temperaturesaverage monthly temperatures
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 SlopeSI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
North. Hem. SI First Leaf Date DeparturesNorth. Hem. SI First Leaf Date Departures
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
North. Hem. Last –2.2North. Hem. Last –2.2ooC Freeze Date DeparturesC Freeze Date Departures
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
SI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 SlopeSI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 Slope
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Cloned Species PhenologyCloned Species Phenology
Advantages: Advantages: 1) 1) Ideal for model development; Ideal for model development; 2) Standardized response to 2) Standardized response to environment; 3) Broad rangeenvironment; 3) Broad range
Limitations: Limitations: 1) 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Not adapted to local 2) Not adapted to local environmentenvironment
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Lilac First Leaf 1961-2000 SlopeLilac First Leaf 1961-2000 Slope
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Lilac First Bloom 1961-2000 SlopeLilac First Bloom 1961-2000 Slope
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Native Species PhenologyNative Species Phenology
Advantages: Advantages: 1) Adapted to the local environment; 1) Adapted to the local environment; 2) Precise signal 2) Precise signal
Limitations: Limitations: 1) 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Limited range; 2) Limited range; 3) Geographical variations in 3) Geographical variations in responseresponse
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Integrated ApproachIntegrated ApproachExample: WisconsinExample: Wisconsin
Zhao and Schwartz (2003)Zhao and Schwartz (2003)
Satellite phenology (DMA SOS)Satellite phenology (DMA SOS) Simulated phenology Simulated phenology
(SI first bloom dates) (SI first bloom dates) ““Native” species phenology Native” species phenology
(WPS records of first bloom date (WPS records of first bloom date for 21 introduced and 32 native for 21 introduced and 32 native species)species)
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Integrated Species Indices (ISI)Integrated Species Indices (ISI)southwestern Wisconsinsouthwestern Wisconsin
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Critical Research AreasCritical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Atmosphere-Biosphere
InteractionsInteractions Long-term Organism Long-term Organism
response to Climate Changeresponse to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases Global Phenology Databases
for monitoring and for monitoring and managementmanagement
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Critical Data/Analysis NeedsCritical Data/Analysis Needs Interpretation/Comparison of Interpretation/Comparison of
satellite phenology with “spatial” satellite phenology with “spatial” surface datasurface data
Interpretation of “ripple effects” in Interpretation of “ripple effects” in biomes and managed systemsbiomes and managed systems
National, continental, and global National, continental, and global scale phenology networksscale phenology networks
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
USA National Phenology USA National Phenology Network (NPN)Network (NPN)
a continental-scale network a continental-scale network observing observing regionally appropriate native plant species, regionally appropriate native plant species, cloned indicator plants (lilac), (and cloned indicator plants (lilac), (and selected agricultural crops?)selected agricultural crops?)
designed to complement remote sensing designed to complement remote sensing observationsobservations
data collected will be freely available to the data collected will be freely available to the research community and general publicresearch community and general public
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Prototype for web-based NPNPrototype for web-based NPNhttp://www.npn.uwm.eduhttp://www.npn.uwm.edu
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Select appropriate native speciesSelect appropriate native species
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Submit data over the InternetSubmit data over the Internet
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
What might be possible with 20 years What might be possible with 20 years (or less) of phenological data?(or less) of phenological data?
Facilitate understanding of plant phenological Facilitate understanding of plant phenological cycles and their relationship to climatecycles and their relationship to climate
Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-derived Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-derived measurementsmeasurements
Detection of long-term phenological trends in Detection of long-term phenological trends in response to climate variability/global warmingresponse to climate variability/global warming
Evaluate impacts of longer growing seasons on Evaluate impacts of longer growing seasons on pollinators, cattle, crop and forest pests, pollinators, cattle, crop and forest pests, wildfires, carbon storage, and water usewildfires, carbon storage, and water use
UW-Milwaukee GeographyUW-Milwaukee Geography
Issues for NPN Implementation Issues for NPN Implementation Workshop Workshop (Aug. 23-25, 2005 in Tucson, AZ)(Aug. 23-25, 2005 in Tucson, AZ)
Native species selection for regionsNative species selection for regions Expansion of indicator plants to entire countryExpansion of indicator plants to entire country Web-based reporting and feedback systemWeb-based reporting and feedback system Network infrastructure design and functionNetwork infrastructure design and function Collaborative and cooperative agreementsCollaborative and cooperative agreements Deployment and development strategiesDeployment and development strategies Public engagement and awarenessPublic engagement and awareness