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National Weather Service National Weather Service Fire Weather Program Fire Weather Program Heath Hockenberry Heath Hockenberry National Weather National Weather Service Service National Fire Weather National Fire Weather Program Manager Program Manager

National Weather Service Fire Weather Program Heath Hockenberry National Weather Service National Fire Weather Program Manager

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National Weather ServiceNational Weather ServiceFire Weather ProgramFire Weather Program

Heath HockenberryHeath Hockenberry

National Weather ServiceNational Weather Service

National Fire Weather National Fire Weather Program ManagerProgram Manager

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherNext Few MinutesNext Few Minutes

• Why do we do Fire Weather?

• Products and Services

• Growing Demands

• The Future – Digital Services

•Our Customers/Partners

•Survey highlights

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherWhy do we do it?Why do we do it?

Mission of NWS Fire Weather…

The objective of the National Weather Service Fire Weather Services Program is to provide fire weather products and services to the fire and land management community

for the protection of life and property, promotion of firefighter safety, and stewardship of America’s public wildlands.

Mission of the NWS…

NOAA's National Weather Service provides weather, hydrologic, and climate forecasts and warnings for the United States, its territories, adjacent waters

and ocean areas, for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy. NWS data and products form a national information

database and infrastructure which can be used by other governmental agencies, the private sector, the public, and the global community

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe fire triangleThe fire triangle

Where does Weather Fit?

Fuels, Topography, and Weather are the 3 main components that affect fire behavior

– weather is the most variable!

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherProducts and ServicesProducts and Services

• Fire Weather Watch/Red Flag Warning Program

• Fire Weather Planning Forecasts

• Site specific spot forecasts

• Consultation and technical advice in support of basic services

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire Weather Products and ServicesProducts and Services

• 147,000 elements forecasted per day (100 offices 147,000 elements forecasted per day (100 offices with 15 zones each, twice a day, with a 7 day with 15 zones each, twice a day, with a 7 day forecast with 7 elements each)forecast with 7 elements each)

• Over 14,000 spot forecasts annually.Over 14,000 spot forecasts annually.

• Over 8300 Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Over 8300 Red Flag Warnings and Fire Weather Watches issued annuallyWatches issued annually

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire Weather Products and ServicesProducts and Services

NWS also providesNWS also provides

on-site services for:on-site services for:

• WildfiresWildfires

• Federal Prescribed BurnsFederal Prescribed Burns

• HAZMAT incidentsHAZMAT incidents

Incident Meteorologists - Incident Meteorologists - IMETSIMETS

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire Weather Products and ServicesProducts and Services

• Experienced and qualified NWS Experienced and qualified NWS meteorologists specially trained in meteorologists specially trained in fire weather forecastingfire weather forecasting

• Each IMET receives at least 3 years Each IMET receives at least 3 years of forecaster training, over 225 of forecaster training, over 225 hours of fire weather classroom and hours of fire weather classroom and OJT prior to becoming certified, and OJT prior to becoming certified, and over 25 hours of fire weather over 25 hours of fire weather refresher training annuallyrefresher training annually

• 65 IMETs nationwide65 IMETs nationwide

Incident Meteorologists:Incident Meteorologists:

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherGrowing Demands for Weather SupportGrowing Demands for Weather Support

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

spots

198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002

Years 1985-2002

WR SPOT FORECASTS

# of NWS Incident Meteorologists

1990s ~35

2006 65

~13K person-hours on average

Federal Fire Suppression Costs

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Co

st (

Mill

ion

s)

Prescribed Fire Cost

050

100150200250300350400450

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2001* 2002*

Year

Co

st (

Mil

lio

ns)

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital ServicesThe Future – Digital Services

IDZ011-013-080000-WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...(ZONES 401 402 403 404) INCLUDES PAYETTE NF AND BOISE NF-930 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2003

.TODAY...SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS.MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 68...EXCEPT 67 TO 77 BELOW 4500 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 23 TO 33 PERCENT BELOW 4500 FEET. 20-FOOT WINDS....... VALLEYS..........NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. RIDGES...........WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.LAL.................1. CHC WETTING RAIN....0 PERCENT.SMOKE DISPERSAL: MIXING HEIGHT......5000-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

Old way of business:

one zone one forecastZones

Typed by hand!

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital ServicesThe Future – Digital Services

How well does a zone forecast How well does a zone forecast reflect the weather on the reflect the weather on the

ground in in complex terrain?ground in in complex terrain?

• Zone 11 in Idaho (WestCentral Mountains) – elevations range from 3 to 9K feet

• Temperatures and humidities can range significantly across the zone, not to mention complex wind patterns

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital ServicesThe Future – Digital Services

5KM

Temperature

2.5KM

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital ServicesThe Future – Digital Services

This is the basic premise behind This is the basic premise behind Digital Services and grids:Digital Services and grids:

You can get a forecast for You can get a forecast for virtually any point or area virtually any point or area across the entire United across the entire United

States for a specific time or States for a specific time or averaged in a time periodaveraged in a time period

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future – Digital ServicesThe Future – Digital Services

IDZ011-013-080000-WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS...(ZONES 401 402 403 404) INCLUDES PAYETTE NF AND BOISE NF-930 AM MDT TUE OCT 7 2003

.TODAY...SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY. ISOLATED SHOWERS.MAX TEMPERATURE.....56 TO 68...EXCEPT 67 TO 77 BELOW 4500 FEET. MIN HUMIDITY........30 TO 45 PERCENT...EXCEPT 23 TO 33 PERCENT BELOW 4500 FEET. 20-FOOT WINDS....... VALLEYS..........NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. RIDGES...........WEST 12 TO 18 MPH.HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.LAL.................1. CHC WETTING RAIN....0 PERCENT.SMOKE DISPERSAL: MIXING HEIGHT......5000-7000 FT AGL. TRANSPORT WINDS....WEST 10 TO 20 MPH.

.TONIGHT...

Produce old stuff

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future - Digital ServicesThe Future - Digital Services

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherThe Future - Digital ServicesThe Future - Digital Services

Partners Well Defined by Agency Firefighting and Resource Management Missions

• Bureau of Land Management

• Bureau of Indian Affairs

• Fish and Wildlife Service

• National Park Service

• U.S. Forest Service

• National Weather Service

• National Association of State Foresters

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherOur Customers/PartnersOur Customers/Partners

National

NWS Fire WeatherNWS Fire WeatherOur Customers/PartnersOur Customers/Partners

Regional

Local

Customers/Partners at all levels!

Survey BackgroundSurvey BackgroundMeasurement timetableMeasurement timetable

Finalized questionnaireFinalized questionnaire October 20, 2005October 20, 2005

Data collection via webData collection via web November 16 – November 16 –

December 12, 2005December 12, 2005

Topline resultsTopline results December 21, 2005December 21, 2005

Results briefingResults briefing January 9, 2006January 9, 2006

Project BackgroundProject BackgroundData CollectionData Collection

RespondentsRespondents

• Web invitations sent to 1185 folks and 384 respondedWeb invitations sent to 1185 folks and 384 responded

– Fire weather focal points provided email addresses for their primary Fire weather focal points provided email addresses for their primary usersusers

– A small number of Bureau of Indian Affairs individuals also had to have A small number of Bureau of Indian Affairs individuals also had to have their survey mailed because of the shutdown of the web access.their survey mailed because of the shutdown of the web access.

• Links to the survey were placed on the home page (first page) of all Western Links to the survey were placed on the home page (first page) of all Western Region offices and on the fire weather page of all NWS officesRegion offices and on the fire weather page of all NWS offices

– 1072 responses collected1072 responses collected

• 1456 total responses collected1456 total responses collected

  

National Fire Weather ProgramNational Fire Weather ProgramCustomer Satisfaction Results 2005Customer Satisfaction Results 2005

National Fire Weather Program compared to the ideal 73

Overall Satisfaction with National Fire Weather Program

AT

TR

IBU

TE

S

80

73National Fire Weather Program

compared to expectations

ACSI 76

“Could not do my job without them.”“Keep up the good work. Lives depend on your information.”

Key Findings SummaryKey Findings Summary• NWS National Fire Weather Program currently scoring wellNWS National Fire Weather Program currently scoring well

• Key drivers of satisfaction at this point in timeKey drivers of satisfaction at this point in time

– Staff Interaction (impact = 1.6)Staff Interaction (impact = 1.6)

– Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) (impact = 2.2)Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) (impact = 2.2)

• Core strengths at this point in timeCore strengths at this point in time

– Staff Interaction -- local and national/regional (score = 83)Staff Interaction -- local and national/regional (score = 83)

– Red Flag Warning Program (score = 81)Red Flag Warning Program (score = 81)

– Site-Specific (spot) Forecasts (score = 80)Site-Specific (spot) Forecasts (score = 80)

Staff InteractionStaff InteractionHuman interaction a key strengthHuman interaction a key strength

83

82

83

85

82

79

77

84

85

85

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Local

National/Regional

Availability

Knowledge

Timeliness of responses

Accuracy of informationprovided

Local National/Regional n=824 Impact: 1.6

Product Use FrequencyProduct Use Frequency

Multiple Times/Day Once/Day Once/Week Once/Month Never

Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) 40% 31% 10% 5% 14%Lightning Activity Level (LAL) 25% 28% 12% 8% 27%Site-specific (spot) forecasts 22% 26% 21% 17% 14%Weather Planner 16% 30% 15% 6% 32%SPC Day 1 & 2 Outlooks 13% 35% 20% 8% 25%SPC Day 3-8 Outlooks 8% 23% 23% 7% 39%SPC or Short Range Ensemble Composite Maps 9% 23% 18% 9% 40%

FWF used most frequently

“Since a lot of the users … are volunteer fire services, could you filter some of the scientific language and put it in terms for people

who do not work full time at predicting fire behavior?”

Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF)Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF)Key driver of satisfaction (impact = 2.2)Key driver of satisfaction (impact = 2.2)

78

76

77

78

81

40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Fire Weather PlanningForecast (FWF)

Timeliness ofinformation

Degree to which itmeets my needs

Format

Accuracy ofinformation

Areas for Focus

74% said their local

FWF contains a trend

forecast

n=1,035

Preferred utilization of trend forecasts for temperature and RHUse only the trend forecasts 33 4%Apply both the trend and specific forecasts equally 540 70%Use specific temperatures and humidity ranges 200 26%

“The simplest format for conveying

specific information is

the one I prefer. The FWF has

been useful and does not require a great deal of

interpretation…simpler is

better. Get me accurate, timely information in an easy-to-use

format.”

Experimental Products and Product Format Experimental Products and Product Format Respondents asked how likely to use …Respondents asked how likely to use …

Transport Wind and Mixing Height GraphicsScore: 66

Dry lightning potential graphicsScore: 70

Point forecast matrices for fire weatherScore: 65

“I have seen fire fighters on the line question less informed ‘overheads’

decision making, based on information we received via a palm pilot. Not only was the ‘overhead’ impressed with our information

gathering skills, and our use of fancy gadgets, he changed the action we were to

take.”

Key Findings/RecommendationsKey Findings/Recommendations

Key Findings/RecommendationsKey Findings/Recommendations• NWS Fire Weather Program currently scoring well; strong base from which to NWS Fire Weather Program currently scoring well; strong base from which to

continue buildingcontinue building

• Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) used most frequently, and is the biggest Fire Weather Planning Forecast (FWF) used most frequently, and is the biggest driver of satisfaction (2.2) for majority of respondents. While 78 is a strong score, driver of satisfaction (2.2) for majority of respondents. While 78 is a strong score, the top priority should be on improving the FWF.the top priority should be on improving the FWF.

– Focus on applying both the trend and specific forecasts equally in the Focus on applying both the trend and specific forecasts equally in the product (70% indicate that is what they want).product (70% indicate that is what they want).

– To the extent possible, work to improve the accuracy of information, or To the extent possible, work to improve the accuracy of information, or setting reasonable expectations (one customer verbatim suggests to setting reasonable expectations (one customer verbatim suggests to include a margin of error with products).include a margin of error with products).

– Those who use for Agriculture (64) and Education (63) rate the lowest. Those who use for Agriculture (64) and Education (63) rate the lowest. These are low sample sizes, however, so interpret these findings with These are low sample sizes, however, so interpret these findings with caution.caution.

• Staff Interaction the highest scoring (83) and one of the biggest drivers of Staff Interaction the highest scoring (83) and one of the biggest drivers of satisfaction (1.6). Work to maintain this high level of service—a decline in score satisfaction (1.6). Work to maintain this high level of service—a decline in score will have a negative effect on satisfaction.will have a negative effect on satisfaction.

– While still scoring strong (77 local and 79 national), accuracy of While still scoring strong (77 local and 79 national), accuracy of information provided leaves some room for improvement. information provided leaves some room for improvement.

– Nearly half indicate they don’t have contact at local/national level. Is this Nearly half indicate they don’t have contact at local/national level. Is this something that you want to/can increase?something that you want to/can increase?

Key Findings/Recommendations cont.Key Findings/Recommendations cont.• Red Flag Warning Program a core strength (81). Impact is 0.5. Work to maintain.Red Flag Warning Program a core strength (81). Impact is 0.5. Work to maintain.

– Depending on internal goals, verbatims indicate some education may be Depending on internal goals, verbatims indicate some education may be necessary (e.g., proper procedures for a watch; defining what a well necessary (e.g., proper procedures for a watch; defining what a well established fuels input into the Red Flag Program entails).established fuels input into the Red Flag Program entails).

– Verbatims indicate that perceived consistency is a challenge: “It seems Verbatims indicate that perceived consistency is a challenge: “It seems that bordering or adjacent NWS offices use different parameters/weather that bordering or adjacent NWS offices use different parameters/weather values when issuing Red Flag Warnings.” Is this a reality or just a values when issuing Red Flag Warnings.” Is this a reality or just a perception issue? Provides an opportunity to communicate how/why perception issue? Provides an opportunity to communicate how/why parameters differ.parameters differ.

• Site-Specific (spot) Forecasts also a core strength (80). Maintain the strong work. Site-Specific (spot) Forecasts also a core strength (80). Maintain the strong work. Further improvement in this area will not impact satisfaction at this time. Focus on Further improvement in this area will not impact satisfaction at this time. Focus on other previously mentioned areas.other previously mentioned areas.

• The Weather Planner had the fewest respondents (660) and is low impact. If this is The Weather Planner had the fewest respondents (660) and is low impact. If this is a fairly new product, it could be a lack of awareness. In which case, promoting the a fairly new product, it could be a lack of awareness. In which case, promoting the product is recommended.product is recommended.

• While the LAL is not currently a top priority for improvement, it is the lowest scoring While the LAL is not currently a top priority for improvement, it is the lowest scoring product. This may become an issue once other priorities are fixed.product. This may become an issue once other priorities are fixed.

Key Findings/Recommendations Key Findings/Recommendations cont.cont.

• ‘‘Accuracy’ scores the lowest among all measured areas. There are those who Accuracy’ scores the lowest among all measured areas. There are those who understand that ‘it is not an exact science’. However, one verbatim offers the understand that ‘it is not an exact science’. However, one verbatim offers the following suggestion:following suggestion:

– ““Some forecasters are more accurate than others … If there is some way Some forecasters are more accurate than others … If there is some way to increase accuracy through better training, experience, understanding to increase accuracy through better training, experience, understanding of the relationship between fire and weather and how we rely on these of the relationship between fire and weather and how we rely on these forecasts for our life satefy, as well as encouraging those who are forecasts for our life satefy, as well as encouraging those who are interested in fire weather forecasting to pursue it…would go a long way interested in fire weather forecasting to pursue it…would go a long way towards increasing accuracy”.towards increasing accuracy”.

• Further investigate verbatim comments for additional insight. Key themes include:Further investigate verbatim comments for additional insight. Key themes include:

– Better consistency among areas/officesBetter consistency among areas/offices

– Improved understanding of how needs differ based on geographyImproved understanding of how needs differ based on geography

– Overarching concern that funding will be cut and the quality of the Overarching concern that funding will be cut and the quality of the service will sufferservice will suffer

– More education for the general public on how fires and wildfire events More education for the general public on how fires and wildfire events affect day to day life.affect day to day life.

• 18% (76) of those who had no contact with the NWS local fire 18% (76) of those who had no contact with the NWS local fire weather staff did not know what action to take when they saw a fire weather staff did not know what action to take when they saw a fire weather watch; 16% (70) did not know what action to take when they weather watch; 16% (70) did not know what action to take when they saw a Red Flag Warningsaw a Red Flag Warning