National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central

National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterHonolulu, Hawaii

National Weather ServiceWeather Forecast Office

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterHonolulu, Hawaii

Raymond TanabeWarning Coordination MeteorologistRaymond TanabeWarning Coordination Meteorologist

NOAA NWS Pacific RegionNOAA NWS Pacific Region

• Pacific Region Headquarters

• Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

• CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu (Co-located at UH-Manoa)– 2 Data Collection Offices (Hilo and Lihue)

• WFO Guam

• Pacific Region Headquarters

• Pacific Tsunami Warning Center

• CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (WFO) Honolulu (Co-located at UH-Manoa)– 2 Data Collection Offices (Hilo and Lihue)

• WFO Guam

CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (Largest Forecast Office in U.S.)CPHC/Weather Forecast Office (Largest Forecast Office in U.S.)

• 5 Management Staff (4 Meteorologists) • 20 Meteorologists• 4 Hydro-meteorological Technicians• 1 Meteorologist Intern• 3 Electronics Technicians• 2 Contract Information Technologists• 1 International Pacific Training Desk Trainer• 3 Pacific ENSO Application Center Personnel

• 5 Management Staff (4 Meteorologists) • 20 Meteorologists• 4 Hydro-meteorological Technicians• 1 Meteorologist Intern• 3 Electronics Technicians• 2 Contract Information Technologists• 1 International Pacific Training Desk Trainer• 3 Pacific ENSO Application Center Personnel

Local Forecast Office ProgramsLocal Forecast Office Programs

• Hawaii - Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Forecasts• Public - Day to day• Aviation - 11 Airport Forecasts• Satellite - Tropical Weather Outlooks• Hydrology - Flash Flooding, Drought• Marine - Winds, Waves, Seas, Surf, Rip Tides• Climate - El Nino / La Nina Impacts• Fire Weather - Wildfires, HAZMAT• Winter Weather - Yes it snows in Hawaii• Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Hail

• Hawaii - Watches, Warnings, Advisories, and Forecasts• Public - Day to day• Aviation - 11 Airport Forecasts• Satellite - Tropical Weather Outlooks• Hydrology - Flash Flooding, Drought• Marine - Winds, Waves, Seas, Surf, Rip Tides• Climate - El Nino / La Nina Impacts• Fire Weather - Wildfires, HAZMAT• Winter Weather - Yes it snows in Hawaii• Severe Weather – Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Hail

Regional Forecast ProgramsRegional Forecast Programs• Central Pacific Hurricane Center

– Central Pacific 140W to 180 north of Equator

– UN World Meteorological Organization Recognized Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for Central Pacific

• Marine– High Seas Forecast (N and S Pacific)

• Aviation– Advisories of Significant Weather for Aircraft

• Climate – Pacific ENSO Application Center

• Central Pacific Hurricane Center– Central Pacific 140W to 180 north of Equator

– UN World Meteorological Organization Recognized Regional Specialized Meteorological Center for Central Pacific

• Marine– High Seas Forecast (N and S Pacific)

• Aviation– Advisories of Significant Weather for Aircraft

• Climate – Pacific ENSO Application Center

Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992Tropical Cyclones - Hurricane Iniki, Sep 11, 1992

• 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn) annually in the Central Pacific

• Direct hits rare…but devastating– 3 in last 50 years

– Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992)

• 4 to 5 tropical cyclones (TD, TS, Hcn) annually in the Central Pacific

• Direct hits rare…but devastating– 3 in last 50 years

– Dot (1959), Iwa (1982), Iniki (1992)

TerminologyTerminology

• Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.

• Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C)

• Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name.

• Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

• Tropical Cyclone: Generic term. Includes Tropical Depressions, Tropical Storms, and Hurricanes.

• Tropical Depression: Winds of 38 mph or less. Assigned a number (e.g., TD-01C)

• Tropical Storm: Winds of 39 to 73 mph. Assigned a name.

• Hurricane: Winds of 74 mph or higher. Five Categories. Category 5 >155mph

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclone SeasonCentral Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season

• Season: June 1 to November 30

– Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month

• Central Pacific Average per Year

– 4-5 Tropical Cyclones

• 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones

– 36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms,

36% Tropical Depressions

• Season: June 1 to November 30

– Tropical Cyclones can occur in any month

• Central Pacific Average per Year

– 4-5 Tropical Cyclones

• 1971 to 2008: 163 Tropical Cyclones

– 36% Hurricanes, 28% Tropical Storms,

36% Tropical Depressions

Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones1971 - 2008

2 0 1 1 0 1

42

64

32

17

2 10

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nu

mb

er o

f S

torm

s

Central Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track HistoryCentral Pacific Hurricanes 40-Year Track History

• Sea Surface Temperatures 80°F (26.5°C) over a large area

• Weak Vertical Wind Shear

• Low Level Disturbance

• Region of upper level divergence/outflow





Recipe for Tropical CyclonesRecipe for Tropical Cyclones

Sea-Surface Temperature ClimatologySea-Surface Temperature Climatology

Ocean Heat Content (OHC)Warm water (fuel) is often not just at the surface

Ocean Heat Content (OHC)Warm water (fuel) is often not just at the surface










LL

HH

LL

HH

5,000 ft/850 mb5,000 ft/850 mb

40,000 ft/200 mb40,000 ft/200 mb

Heat

Heat

He

at

He

at

Typical cruising altitude of commercial airplane

SurfaceSurface

Effect of Vertical Wind ShearEffect of Vertical Wind Shear



















Divergence = ExhaustDivergence = Exhaust

Tropical Cyclone ImpactsTropical Cyclone Impacts• Extreme wind conditions

Iniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mphIwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph

• Flash FloodingIniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frameTD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo

• Storm Surge, High surfIniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surgeEstelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

• Extreme wind conditionsIniki: wind gusts greater that 150 mphIwa: wind gusts greater that 120 mph

• Flash FloodingIniki: 8 to 10 inches over short time frameTD 1-C: 14+ inches upslope of Hilo

• Storm Surge, High surfIniki: 30 to 35 ft surf on Kauai, high water marks up to 25 ft, 3 to 4 ft storm surgeEstelle: 10 to 20 ft surf even though closest passage was 120 nm south of Big Island.

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterText Products

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tropical Cyclone Discussion

• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory

• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory

• Tropical Cyclone Local Statements

• Tropical Weather Outlook

• Tropical Cyclone Discussion

• Tropical Cyclone Forecast/Advisory

• Tropical Cyclone Public Advisory

• Tropical Cyclone Local Statements

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Weather Outlook


• Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30– 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST

• The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest

• Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops

• Issued 4 times daily during hurricane season – June 1 through November 30– 4 AM, 10 AM, 4 PM, 10 PM HST

• The Tropical Weather Outlook provides a summary of possible or anticipated tropical cyclone development and other areas of interest

• Can give you several days “heads up” before a tropical cyclone actually develops



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI400 AM HST TUE JUN 8 2004

FOR THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...BETWEEN 140W AND 180

NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI400 AM HST TUE JUN 8 2004


NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

$$



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007


A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKNWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI1000 AM HST FRI MAY 11 2007


A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO...HAWAII. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.

Tropical Cyclone ProductsTropical Cyclone Products

• Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times– 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM

• For storms that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued

• For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued.

• Once a tropical cyclone develops or moves into the Central North Pacific, Tropical Discussions, Public Advisories, and Forecast/Advisories are issued at regularly scheduled times– 5 AM, 11 AM, 5 PM, 11 PM

• For storms that are expected to remain over water and not affect any land areas, these three are the only products issued

• For tropical cyclone that are expected to impact land areas, position estimates, intermediate advisories, and local statements are also issued.

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterTropical Cyclone Discussion


• Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone

• Assess confidence or uncertainty

• Reason for change in track or intensity forecast

• Plans for watches and warnings

• Explain the forecaster’s reasoning behind the analysis and forecast of the tropical cyclone

• Assess confidence or uncertainty

• Reason for change in track or intensity forecast

• Plans for watches and warnings



OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION .

WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...

THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY.

ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND.

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS...TWO-C HAS STARTED TO SHOW SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANIZATION .

WIND RADII WERE ALSO EXPANDED PRIMARILY THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND QUIKSCAT DATA.

THE FORECAST TRACK OF TWO-C HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD OR TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...

THE FORECAST INTENSITY WAS INCREASED THROUGH 36 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASE IN INITIAL INTENSITY.

ITS PROJECTED PATH KEEPS TWO-C OVER WATER AND AWAY FROM ANY MAJOR PACIFIC ISLANDS. THE SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE FORECAST TRACK AFTER 36 HOURS ALSO PLACES TWO-C FURTHER AWAY FROM JOHNSTON ISLAND.

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast /Advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast /Advisory

• Short Term Section (days 1-3)– Current position and movement– Forecast center positions– Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots– 34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii

• Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5)– Forecast center positions– Maximum wind speed in knots

• Short Term Section (days 1-3)– Current position and movement– Forecast center positions– Maximum wind speed and gusts in knots– 34, 50, and 64 knot wind speed radii

• Extended Outlook Section (days 4-5)– Forecast center positions– Maximum wind speed in knots

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast / Advisory

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterForecast / Advisory

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z.POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB.EYE DIAMETER 10 NM.

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NWALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 160.9W AT 09/2100Z.POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM.

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 22 KT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB.EYE DIAMETER 10 NM.

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW50 KT....... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW34 KT........200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 200NWALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

Central Pacific Hurricane CenterPublic Advisory


• Watches or warnings in effect– Highlights most significant conditions– Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS– Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone

• Intermediate Advisories– Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is

forecast to affect an island

• Special advisories – Issued anytime significant changes occur– Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning– Classification of tropical cyclone changes– A tornado threat develops

• Watches or warnings in effect– Highlights most significant conditions– Reference to local statements from Civil Defense and NWS– Location, movement, and intensity of tropical cyclone

• Intermediate Advisories– Issued at 2 or 3 hour intervals when a tropical cyclone affects or is

forecast to affect an island

• Special advisories – Issued anytime significant changes occur– Cancellation of a Hurricane/Tropical storm Watch or Warning– Classification of tropical cyclone changes– A tornado threat develops



AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 5 PM HST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 142.3 WEST OR ABOUT 875 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HILO HAWAII. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...MAINLY THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

Hurricane Local StatementsHurricane Local Statements• Specific details for county area• Watches and/or warnings in effect• Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and

intensity• Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood

potential, tornado potential• Civil Defense evacuation orders• Precautions necessary to protect life and property• Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if

necessary

• Specific details for county area• Watches and/or warnings in effect• Hurricane/Tropical Storm location, movement, and

intensity• Significant details – wind, surf, rain and flood

potential, tornado potential• Civil Defense evacuation orders• Precautions necessary to protect life and property• Frequent releases – every 2 or 3 hours, more often if

necessary

Hurricane Local StatementsHurricane Local StatementsHURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI1200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...AREAS AFFECTED...

...WATCHES WARNINGS...

....STORM INFORMATION...

...PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...

...HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS...

...WIND IMPACTS...

...FLOODING IMPACTS...

...NEXT UPDATE...

HURRICANE FLOSSIE LOCAL STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI1200 AM HST TUE AUG 14 2007

...AREAS AFFECTED...

...WATCHES WARNINGS...

....STORM INFORMATION...

...PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS...

...HIGH SURF AND TIDE IMPACTS...

...WIND IMPACTS...

...FLOODING IMPACTS...

...NEXT UPDATE...

Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings

Central Pacific Hurricane Center Watches and Warnings

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are

possible within 48* hours.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are

expected within 36* hours

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Watch• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are

possible within 48* hours.

Hurricane/Tropical Storm Warning• Hurricane/Tropical Storm conditions are

expected within 36* hours

* Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.* Change starting with 2009 season in Central Pacific.

Graphical Tropical Weather OutlookGraphical Tropical Weather Outlook

• Graphical companion to text product

• Will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast for the next 48 hours – Low: Probability of genesis less than 30%– Medium: Probability of genesis 30-50% – High: Probability of genesis greater than 50%

• Graphical companion to text product

• Will include a three-tiered, color-coded, categorical genesis forecast for the next 48 hours – Low: Probability of genesis less than 30%– Medium: Probability of genesis 30-50% – High: Probability of genesis greater than 50%

Emergency PlansEmergency Plans

• Continuity of Operations• Individuals/Families – 7 days• Businesses• Gather information about hazards• Meet with your Company/family to

create/review plans

• Continuity of Operations• Individuals/Families – 7 days• Businesses• Gather information about hazards• Meet with your Company/family to

create/review plans

Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008

Tropical Storm Kika 7-12 August 2008

• First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008

• Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength

• No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

• First and only tropical cyclone in Central Pacific Basin for 2008

• Peaked at minimal Tropical Storm strength

• No impacts to Hawaiian Islands and no significant impacts to other Pacific Islands

Tropical Storm Kika 7 - 12 August 2008

Hawaii

Tropical Storm Kika 9 August 2008 0330 UTC

Tropical Storm KikaTropical Storm Kika

7 August 2008 130pm7 August 2008 130pm

Tropical Storm KikaTropical Storm Kika

8 August 2008 530pm8 August 2008 530pm

2009 Hurricane Season Outlook2009 Hurricane Season Outlook

• 80% near to below normal season– 3-5 Tropical Cyclones

• 20% chance of above normal season– 6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El

Nino develops

• Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

• 80% near to below normal season– 3-5 Tropical Cyclones

• 20% chance of above normal season– 6+ Tropical Cyclones if moderate-strong El

Nino develops

• Have to prepare same way regardless of outlook

Questions?Questions?

National Weather Service2525 Correa Road Suite 250

Honolulu, HI 96822-2219973-5270

[email protected] 973-5275

www.weather.gov/hawaii

National Weather Service2525 Correa Road Suite 250

Honolulu, HI 96822-2219973-5270

[email protected] 973-5275

www.weather.gov/hawaii

Documents

National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu, Hawaii National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Central