NAVIGATING VUCA IN BUILDING A SMARTER

PLANET

Smarter Business Requires Smarter Information

Being Smart Has Gotten Us Here…

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

…Using Smart Systems

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

Completely ReactiveNon Scientific Non Collaborative

Mostly ReactiveBasic Scientific Low Collaboration

Partially ProactiveHigh Scientific Initial Collaboration

Being Smart Just Isn’t Good Enough Anymore

VUCA

Knowledge

Wisdom

Highly ProactiveQuantum Scientific Real Time Collaboration

What the VUCA is that?

Originated from US Army War College in late 1990’s

VolatilityUncertaintyComplexityAmbiguity Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

“VUCA Meter”

LOW HIGH

Why the VUCA is it Happening?

ENVIRONMENTALChanging and less predictable climatic patterns

Scarcity of resources (oil, water, arable land, etc)

SOCIALMore tightly interconnected systems (economics, political, social)

Evolution to rapid exponential effects vs. slow or moderate linear effects

Being Smart Has Been Good Enough….So Far

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

External Factors

LOW HIGH

Current

SmartModels

Policy & Regulatory

Economic & Business

• Resource Abundance• Environmental Consistency• Independent & Sovereign• Moderate & Linear Evolutionary Advancements

Being Smart Has Been Good Enough….So Far

We’re pretty smart at deploying innovations to benefit humanity. Just keep doing what has worked in the past…..right?

Time

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Current Business & Policy Models are sufficient to determine appropriate strategies and resources to drive innovations

Lack of Complexity of External Factors =

Little interference with ease of use

Confidence in extraction of value

New Realities in External Factors

Information

Knowledge

Wisdom

LOW HIGH

CurrentSmartModels

Policy & Regulatory

Economic & Business

• Resource Constrained• Environmental Change• Interconnected & Global• Rapid & Exponential Evolutionary Required Objectives

External Factors

Simply being smart doesn’t produce the benefits it used to

Why Isn’t Smart Good Enough?

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Current Business & Policy Models assuming low to moderate VUCA contextual environment

Complex External Factors =

Significant interference with ease of use

Obstacles to extraction of value

Ultimately, Stalling at the Gap

VUCA

Knowledge

Wisdom

Highly ProactiveQuantum Scientific Real Time Collaboration

Population Growth to 9 Billion +Climate ChangeResource ScarcityEconomic Disparity

How to Become Smarter

The innovation that is needed, is an innovation to leadership behavior.

Victim or Victor

Leaders have historically achieved victory by being smart with smart tools. Those same leaders using the same smart behavior are becoming victims in the evolving new reality.

How about a little game of…….

TRUTH OR DARE?

Truth or Dare

VICTIM Be honest……tell the truth

Leadership Behavior Yearly underperformance & missed expectations Only sees and addresses the most immediate problems Sees only one issue or solution, misses the range and combinations Unaware of the cause and effect between multiple issues Sees realization of success only through narrow focus Scalability is dependent on repeatability of the same behavior and set of tools that have worked in the past Commits to a path and pushes through, regardless of indicators of potential failure Uncomfortable or unwilling to absorb and act on complex situations or “intuitive based” strategies

Truth or Dare

VICTORDo you dare……be a great leader

Leadership Behavior Achieving “top-line” growth and consistent positive EBITDA in turbulent times Continual assessment of risks and improvement of “sensing” processes Has a range of operational options that are flexible, yet achieve a single strategic outcome Sees both the forest AND the trees, knows the difference and can identify the most appropriate set of paths Sees issues in the context of their entire environmental relationship Identifies core issue determinants and understands their relevance to achieving the strategic goal Trusts that sensing future issues can improve today’s ability to compete

Tools That Support Innovative Leadership

Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes

PRIMARY DRIVI FACTOR

S

PRIMARY DRIVING MARKET FACTORS

PRIMARY DRIVING

AGRONOMIC FACTORS

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor

Region 3 – Wine Grape

AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicSpecific agronomic attribute affecting influencing factor

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Market Behavioral Modeling and Mapping

Supporting PrinciplesCorporate Foresight ModelingCrowd SourcingCollective IntelligenceLifecycle Modeling Innovation Adoption Models

Knowledge to Wisdom

Knowledge is Smart InformationTraditional market analysis driven by demographic based data

Wisdom is Smarter InformationTraditional market analysis driven by demographic based data AND Integrated configuration of market’s external factorsDegree of influence from integrated set of external factorsRelational map of vested stakeholders and change indicatorsGuidance system for optimal market engagement

Tools That Support Innovative Leadership

Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes

PRIMARY DRIVI FACTOR

S

PRIMARY DRIVING MARKET FACTORS

PRIMARY DRIVING

AGRONOMIC FACTORS

Methodology and tools for market analysis

Quantifying the configuration and degree of influence from external market factors on a market population

Establishing a market behavioral profile

Tools That Support Innovative Leadership

Behavioral Modeling and Mapping Processes

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region

If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region

If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region

If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo

Region 2 – Wine Grape

AgronomicThis is the Lodi wine region

If you can read this – you are awesome.Nam Myo Ho Renge Kyo

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Region 1                        

crop Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Wine Grapes                        

Profile mapping with primary behavioral influencing factors

Profile specific vested stakeholder relational map

Market based ecosystem relational map

Profile and issue specific optimal market engagement guidance

Bridge the Gap to a Smarter Planet

Victory over VUCA

Time

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Knowledge

Wisdom

They Said What?

Strategy without tactics is the slowest route to victory. Tactics without strategy is the noise before defeat – Sun Tzu

A man should look for what is, and not for what he thinks should be – Albert Einstein

He who innovates will have for his enemies all those who are well off under the existing order and only lukewarm supporters in those who might be better off in the new – Niccolo Machiavelli, The Prince

Acknowledgements

Imagery:Google Images

To the men, the myths and the legends that I’ve worked with in refining these models and processes. You all know who you are. Onward and upward!

Contact:www.linkedin.com/in/dsypnieski/