NCEP for NCEPers

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NCEP for NCEPers

“Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

December 5, 2005

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Outline

• Define NOAA/NWS/Forecast Process• Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction

Services• Strategic Plan• Annual Operating Plan• Budget/GPRA Measures• Computing summary• 2005/2006 Milestones• Future Considerations

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The NOAA Prediction Process

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NWS Organization

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Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

The Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services

IBM Supercomputer at Gaithersburg, MD Computer Center

FeedbackFeedback

DistributeDistribute

LocalOfficesLocal

OfficesCentral

GuidanceCentral

GuidanceProcessProcess

ObserveObserve

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., National Association of State Energy Officials,

Emergency Managers, Air Quality and Environmental

Agencies, …

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Role of NCEP in NOAA’s Prediction Services

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History of NCEP

• 1954 - Joint Numerical Weather Prediction Unit formed

• 1961 - Full funding from US Weather Bureau– AD, DD,FD,ExFD

• 1974 – Move to WWB• 1979 – CAC created• 1984 – additions

– Computer Operations from NOAA– NHC– NSSFC

• 1995 – NCEP created– NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC,

CPC, AWC, SPC (move to

Norman in ’97), TPC– SEC becomes NCEP’s

9th center (remains an OAR lab)

• 2004 – SEC enters NWS

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NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products

Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nation’s economy and support the nation’s growing need for environmental information.

Space Environment Center

Storm Prediction Center

Aviation Weather Center NCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction Center

Tropical Prediction Center

Vision: Striving to be America’s first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.

Organization: Central component of NOAA National Weather Service

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What Does NCEP Do?

Model Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

“From the Sun to the Sea”

• Solar Monitoring, Warnings and Forecasts

• Climate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to Interannual

• El Nino – La Nina Forecast

• Weather Forecasts to Day 7

• Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire Weather

• Aviation (Turbulence, Icing)

• High Seas Forecasts and Warnings

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Warnings & Alert Warnings & Alert CoordinationCoordination

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

OutlookOutlook

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Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather

Weather Prediction Products

Climate PredictionProducts

Air

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NCEP Partners

• NOAA Mission Goal Teams and Line Offices• NWS Forecast Offices• Academia• International Organizations• Military• Other Federal Agencies• Private Meteorologists• Research Laboratories• State and Local Emergency Managers• Wild Fire Agencies (Federal/State)• Technology Vendors• Media

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Planning ProcessCentered Around NOAA’s PPBES

NOAA Strategic Plan

NWS Strategic Plan

NCEP Strategic Plan

NCEP Annual Operating Plan

NCEP Technical Operating Plan

Executive Summaries

Performance Plans

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NCEP’s Strategies and Objectives to Meet NOAA’s Service, Delivery and Improvement Goals

83%EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC

• Produce and Deliver the Best Products and Services

• Capitalize on Scientific and Technological Advances

• Exercise Global Leadership • Focus the NCEP Organizational Culture • Effectively Manage NCEP Resources

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NOAA Strategic Plan GoalsNCEP Contribution

Climate

Weather & Water

Commerce & Transportation

Ecosystems

7%CPC

10%AWCOPC

83%EMC, NCO, HPC, SPC, TPC, SEC

NCEP Contributes to 3 of NOAA’s Strategic Plan Goals and 8 Separate Programs

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NCEP Technical Operating PlansMapping Resources to Goals

GPRA

NWS GOALS

NCEP GOALS

KEY DELIVERABLES

MILESTONES

BUDGET ALLOCATION

ANNUAL OPERATING PLAN

EXECUTIVESUMMARIES

NTOPELEMENTS

NOAA GOALS

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GPRA Scores

Performance Measure

Actual

2002

Actual

2003

Goal/Actual

2004

Goal/Actual

2005

Goal

2006

Atlantic Hurricane Track Forecast (48 hours)

124 nm 107 nm 129 nm/94 nm 128 nm/NA 111km

Precipitation Forecast – Day 1 “Threat Score”

.30 .29 .25/.29 .27/.30 .28

U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Skill (%)

18 17 21/17 18/18 18

NCEP responsible for 3 NWS GPRA Performance Measures

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Performance MeasuresGoals/ObjectivesMilestonesResources ($$/People)

NCEP Technical Operating Plan (NTOP)

Internal Planning Timeline

Nov.Dec.

LateSept.

MidSept

Early Sept. Aug.

Jan.NCOReview

Dec.EMCReview

NTOPS1st draft

Final NTOP and Annual Operating Plan When Budget is Allocated

ExecutiveSummary

Draft Annual

OperatingPlan

Identify Agency

Milestones

Internal CoordinationCorporate Board Planning Meeting

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NCEP Budget FactsHistorical Base Funding

0102030405060708090

100

FY2000

FY2001

FY2002

FY2003

FY2004

FY2005

Fiscal Year

$ in

Mill

ions

$68.2$62.0

$54.8$50.1

$80.1$88.2

Weather and Climate Supercomputer

Supercomputer Backup

SEC Integration

Rent

Dropsondes/EMC Adjustments

Labor ATBs

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NCEP Budget FactsFY2005 OR&F vs. PAC

OR&FPAC$61.8M

70%

$26.4M

30%

Weather and Climate Supercomputer

Supercomputer Backup

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NCEP Budget FactsFY 2005 Allocations by Center ($K)

Center FTEs Labor Non-labor Total Other NOAA LOs

Reimb TOTAL

OD 9 $1,037.1 $4,697.7 $5,734.8 $0.0 $11.0 $5,745.8

NCO 75 $7,855.3 $29,837.2 $37,692.5 $550.0 $144.7 $38,387.2

EMC 47 $5,543.2 $2,953.8 $8,497.0 $7,066.4 $1,281.0 $16,844.4

HPC 42 $4,769.6 $77.9 $4,847.5 $25.0 $0.0 $4,872.5

OPC 25 $2,665.7 $80.2 $2,745.9 $157.5 $0.0 $2,903.4

CPC 50 $5,290.8 $549.8 $5,840.6 $2,401.6 $598.4 $8,840.6

AWC 54 $5,928.0 $726.9 $6,654.9 $570.0 $585.7 $7,810.6

SPC 32 $3,640.7 $561.0 $4,201.7 $0.0 $0.0 $4,201.7

TPC 41 $4,712.3 $457.2 $5,169.5 $239.0 $0.0 $5,408.5

SEC 51 $5,264.4 $1,523.2 $6,787.6 $600.0 $630.7 $8,018.3

TOTAL 426 $46,707.1 $41,464.9 $88,172.0 $11,609.5 $3,251.5 $103,033.0

Other Funding Sources: $14,861K

NWS Base

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Computing Summary

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Computing Capability

Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)

$26.4M/Year $26.4M/Year InvestmentInvestment

•Receives Over 210 Million Global Observations Daily•Sustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/Sec•Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day•Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)•Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)•Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)•3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005•Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005

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NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

0

20

40

60

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0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00

6 Hour Cycle

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RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal

RUC GFS Anl Hur

GFS FcstNAM Fcst

NAM Anl Waves

SREF GENS

Climate Forecast System

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Product Generation Performance

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AOP Milestones

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AOP 2005 Milestones

•Weather

•Hurricane Model resolution increase 18 9 km

•Global Model resolution increase 55 35 km

•Rapid Update Cycle resolution increase 20 13 km

•Global Ensemble upgrade

•North American Meso-Scale upgrade

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AOP 2005 Milestones

•Climate•Additional daily run of Climate Forecast System (from 1 2/day)

•Air Quality•Expand Air Quality Forecast from Northeast U.S. to Eastern U.S.

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AOP 2005 Milestones

• Products– Produce Day 3 – 8 experimental Graphical

Forecast Chart Depicting Likelihood of Critical Fire Weather Conditions

– Develop Operational Product of Ensemble Tracks Product for Tropical Cyclones

– Extend UV Outlooks to 72 Hours– Issue Operational Significant Weather Medium

and High Level Chart in BUFR Format

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AOP 2005 Milestones

• Outreach– Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop– Conduct Three Introduction to Hurricane Preparedness

Workshops for Local Emergency Managers– Conduct Collaborative Spring Forecast Experiment to

Evaluate WRF– Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean

Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Atlantic Coast, Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week

– Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada

– Provide Training for 10 Meteorologists at International Desks

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AOP FY2006 Milestones•Ocean

•Wave Model•10 member Ensemble Wave model – Spring (06)

•Great Lakes Wave Forecast – Summer (06)

•Real-Time Ocean Forecast System (RTOFS)

• HYCOM-based, 1/12 degree North Atlantic Basin – Fall (05)

Chesapeake Bay

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AOP FY2006 Milestones

•Weather•Global Forecast System (GFS) – Spring (06)

•GSI data assimilation

•Apply hybrid sigma-pressure coordinate model

•WRF – Spring (06) •WRF based North America Mesoscale Run (Replaces Eta Model)

•GFDL Hurricane Model – Spring (06)•Begin parallel runs of Hurricane WRF system

•Complete Implementation of 6 WRF Members into the SREF System - Winter (05)

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•Products•Execute Full Implementation of Watch-by-County

•Implement Operational Winter Weather Desk Enhancements

•Implement Gridded Wave Forecasts for Coastal and Offshore Zones in Support of NDFD

•Issue Experimental Graphical AIRMET

•Develop Experimental Probababilisitc Guidance for Occurrence of Lightning for Fire Weather Forecasts

•Implement Experimental Week-2 Outlooks for North America including Canada, Alaska and Mexico and U.S. Caribbean and Pacific Islands

•Develop Outlooks for Monthly and Seasonal Degree-Day Totals Based on CPC Seasonal Temperature Outlook

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•Outreach•Organize and Co-Sponsor Space Weather Week

•Provide Training for 10 Visiting Scientists at International Training Desks

•Conduct Spring Forecast Experiment through SPC's Hazardous Weather Testbed

•Conduct Hurricane Awareness Tour to Caribbean Countries and Mexico, and a Tour Along the Gulf Coast

•Participate in Forecaster Exchange Program with Meteorology-Canada in Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting

•Conduct Two Hurricane Preparedness Workshops for Coastal States

•Conduct National Severe Weather Workshop

•Lead the 30th Annual Climate Diagnostic & Prediction Workshop

•Participate in Three Trade Shows and Two Safety Seminars in Support of Marine Outreach Program

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Future Considerations

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Expanding “Environmental” Services• Air Quality Prediction

(with the EPA)– Expanded coverage in 2005

• Ocean Modeling Provide “Backbone” for Regional Coastal Model– U.S. Ocean Commission

Report– Plan submitted to NOAA

Science Advisory Board• Full incorporation of Space

Weather Services

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Expanding “Environmental” Services

• Advancing Prediction of Extreme Events– Hurricane intensity– Snowstorms – Severe Weather– Fire Weather– Floods

• Advancing Two week to One Year Climate Forecasts for El Nino/La Nina Seasonal Predictions with the new Climate Forecast System: need to improve GPRA score!– Climate Test Bed to accelerate improvements in seasonal climate prediction– Climate Forecast System, a fully coupled climate prediction model, was

implemented in August, 2004. In FY05, the number of ensemble members doubled from 30 per month to 60 per month. Doubling of horizontal resolution to ~105 km is expected by ‘08

(cont.)

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Linkages to Outside Community• International programs – GEOSS, THORPEX WMO-sponsored climate

programs• “Community Modeling” between research and operational communities

to accelerate transition of forecast improvements from research to operations

• Test Beds – e.g., Climate Test Bed – to accelerate transition from research to operations and improve forecast products

• Interagency efforts to use global research and operational global satellite data more effectively (NASA, NOAA, DoD “Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation”)

• Consolidation of NOAA severe weather research and prediction at the OU National Weather Center in FY06

• World-Class Facility for the research to operations enterprise (NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, move in FY08!)

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF • Includes housing 800 Federal employees,

contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

• Begin move to new facility September ’07 and complete by Feb ‘08

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Background Slides

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GlobalForecast System

Climate Forecast System

GFDLHurricane

NOAH Land Surface Model

Dispersion

Air Quality

Model Dependencies:Basis for How Predictions are Made

Forecast

AviationHourly Forecast

GLOBAL

DATA

Ocean

Ocean

North American Mesoscale Model

(NAM)

Ocean

Short-RangeEnsemble

Medium RangeEnsemble(NAEFS)

Severe Weather

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Prediction Requires “Coupling” of Basic Earth “Systems” within Global Numerical Forecast

Models

• Cryosphere

• Atmosphere • Ocean

• Land

• Predictions Driven by Global Observing Systems• Real-time operations require world’s largest computers

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Long-Term Performance Gains

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NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

Advances RelatedTo USWRP

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Impact of Models on Day 1 Precipitation Scores

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.3519

91

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Th

reat

Sco

re

Human(HPC)

ETA

Linear(Human(HPC))Linear (ETA)

HPC Forecasters Add Value

Models provide basis for improvement Correlations

Of HPC with:

Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85

(DOC GPRA goal)

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Hurricane Track Forecast Errors in Atlantic basin: 24-72 Hrs

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NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ATLANTIC TRACK FORECAST ERRORS

12 24 36 48 72 96 120

Forecast Period (hours)

0

100

200

300

400

500

Err

or

(nau

tica

l mile

s)

1964-1973

1984-1993

1974-1983

1994-20032003-2004Katrina(preliminary)

48In last 10 years, HPC forecasts have added 2 days of skill

Day 7

Day 5

Day 3

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0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL JAN JUL

Nu

mb

er

of

Mo

nth

ly H

its

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

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September 2005 Performance Updates

Cumulative Actual

16 16 17 18 19 20 20 20 20 18 19 19

↑Good

Status:

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Cumulative Actual

29 33 36 37 35 34 34 32 30 29 29 29

↑Good

Status:

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Status:

NCEP Global Model Performance 500 mb Anomaly Correlation Coefficient Comparison

Northern Hemisphere

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

0.95

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sep

Month (FY 2005)

Sk

ill

Sc

ore

NCEPECMWFUKMOUSNSkillFY05 Threshold

↑Good

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↑Good

Status:

NCEP Global Model Performance 500 mb Anomaly Correlation Coefficient Comparison

Southern Hemisphere

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

1.00

Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar April May June July August Sep

Month (FY 2005)

Sk

ill S

co

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NCEPECMWFSkillUKMOUSNFY05 Threshold

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Backup Slides

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Summary

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Summary• Strive to continue ongoing improvements

• Develop partnerships– JCSDA– WRF– NOAA Ocean Plan– ESMF

• Expand Collaborative Forecast Process: NCEP – RFC – WFO – CSWU

• Apply ensembles and forecaster input to probabilisitic forecast products

Cou

nt (

mill

ions

Daily Satellite Observation Count

2002

2003-4

2005

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Service Center Activities

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• WAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR WAFS Significant Weather implemented in BUFR formatformat

• New Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDSNew Flight Path Tool implemented on ADDS• Dramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports Dramatic improvement in number of Pilot Reports

filed through AWC webpagefiled through AWC webpage• Improvement in accuracy and usefulness of Improvement in accuracy and usefulness of

Collaborative Convective Forecast ProductsCollaborative Convective Forecast Products• Aviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented Aviation thunderstorm advisory maps implemented

on NOAA websiteon NOAA website• Massive change to WMO headers of AWC productsMassive change to WMO headers of AWC products

Aviation Weather CenterAviation Weather Center

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Climate Prediction Center

• Initiated Climate Test Bed infrastructure– Wayne Higgins –

Director

• CTB will accelerate the transfer of research and development into operational climate forecasts and products

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Surface Analysis GFS 0600 UTC 03OCT2005

UWPBL4.1 Surface Analysis 0657 UTC 03OCT2005

12.5km QuikSCAT 0740 UTC 03October2005

GOES IR Satellite Image 0745UTC 03October2005

Ocean Prediction Center

• New automated technique developed by U of Wash using their boundary layer model to construct surface pressure analysis from Quikscat winds and available observations

GFS analysis U of Wash technique

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Storm Prediction Center

• Now producing experimental 3-8 day graphical fire weather outlooks

• A short discussion will be added to the graphic when it becomes a Public Experimental Product (with PDD & comment period) in Spring 2006.

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Tropical Prediction Center

• Experimental tropical cyclone surface wind speed probability– Tropical storm winds

(> 39 mph)

– > 58 mph winds

– Hurricane winds (>74 mph)

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Space Environment Center• SEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9

– Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the “Sun to the Sea”

• Provides space weather alerts and warnings for disturbances that can affect people and equipment working in space and on Earth

• Service/Science linkage offers many exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.

Documents

NCEP for NCEPers