NCEP Overview

NCEP OverviewA Briefing to

Samuel W. Bodman

Deputy Secretary of Commerce

And

Vice Admiral Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. USN (Ret.)

Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere

By

Dr. Louis W. Uccellini

Director, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

July 2, 2002

NCEP: “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin”

Outline

Mission Organization Role within NWS Examples of Products/Performance Strategic Issues

NCEP Mission Statement

Deliver national and global weather, climate, and water guidance, forecasts, warnings, and analyses to internal and external user communities.

National Weather Service

HQsHQs

FieldField

Office of Office of Climate, Water, &Climate, Water, &Weather ServicesWeather Services

Office of Office of Climate, Water, &Climate, Water, &Weather ServicesWeather Services

Office of Office of Operational Operational

SystemsSystems

Office of Office of Operational Operational

SystemsSystems

Office of Office of Science &Science &

TechnologyTechnology

Office of Office of Science &Science &

TechnologyTechnology

Office of Office of HydrologicHydrologic

DevelopmentDevelopment

Office of Office of HydrologicHydrologic

DevelopmentDevelopment

Storm Storm Prediction Prediction

CenterCenter

Storm Storm Prediction Prediction

CenterCenter

Climate Climate Prediction Prediction

CenterCenter

Climate Climate Prediction Prediction

CenterCenter

Marine Marine Prediction Prediction

CenterCenter

Marine Marine Prediction Prediction

CenterCenter

Space Space EnvironmentEnvironment

CenterCenter

Space Space EnvironmentEnvironment

CenterCenter

Environmental Environmental Modeling Modeling

CenterCenter

Environmental Environmental Modeling Modeling

CenterCenter

Hydro-Hydro-meteorological meteorological

Prediction Prediction CenterCenter

Hydro-Hydro-meteorological meteorological

Prediction Prediction CenterCenter

Tropical Tropical Prediction Prediction

Center Center (National (National

Hurricane Center)Hurricane Center)

Tropical Tropical Prediction Prediction

Center Center (National (National

Hurricane Center)Hurricane Center)

Aviation Aviation Weather Weather CenterCenter

Aviation Aviation Weather Weather CenterCenter

Central Central OperationsOperationsCentral Central

OperationsOperations

EasternEasternRegionRegionEasternEasternRegionRegion

CentralCentralRegionRegionCentralCentralRegionRegion

SouthernSouthernRegionRegion

SouthernSouthernRegionRegion

WesternWesternRegionRegion

WesternWesternRegionRegion

AlaskaAlaskaRegionRegionAlaskaAlaskaRegionRegion

PacificPacificRegionRegionPacificPacificRegionRegion

National Centers for National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Prediction

National Centers for National Centers for Environmental Prediction Environmental Prediction

Office of theOffice of theAssistant AdministratorAssistant AdministratorFor Weather ServicesFor Weather Services

Office of theOffice of theAssistant AdministratorAssistant AdministratorFor Weather ServicesFor Weather Services

Office of theOffice of theChief InformationChief Information

OfficerOfficer

Office of theOffice of theChief InformationChief Information

OfficerOfficer

Office of theOffice of theChief FinancialChief Financial

OfficerOfficer

Office of theOffice of theChief FinancialChief Financial

OfficerOfficer

NCEP Center Locations

What Does NCEP Do?

Severe Storm Outlooks Fire Weather Outlooks Weather Forecasts to Day 7 Quantitative Precipitation

Forecasts to 5 days Marine Weather Discussions Model Discussions

Severe Weather Watches Hurricane Watches and

Warnings Aviation Warnings

(Convective, Turbulence, Icing) Climate Forecasts (Weekly to

Seasonal to Interannual) Marine High Seas Forecasts Solar Monitoring –

geomagnetic storm forecasts

Guidance to Support WFO/RFC National Products

Model Development and Applications, including Data AssimilationOcean Models for Climate Prediction; Coastal Ocean Forecast System; Wave ModelsSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

National Centers for Environmental Prediction

Center Location FTEsFED NonFED

Budget (K)$ - Base

Budget (K)$ - PAC

Budget (K)

$ - External

OD Camp Springs, MD 9 0 2164.5 0 17.0EMC Camp Springs, MD 47 45 4893.4 0 6015.7NCO Camp Springs, MD 75 31 9260.7 14641.3 478.0CPC Camp Springs, MD 51 27 5195.6 0 1994.8HPC Camp Springs, MD 42 1 4064.0 0 30.0SPC Norman, OK 32 7 3719.0 0 12.0TPC Miami, FL 41 4 4482.6 0 338.3MPC Camp Springs, MD 24 0 2341.0 0 0AWC Kansas City, MO 54 10 5782.4 0 772.5TOTALS 375 125 41903.2 14641.3 9658.3

Grand Total: $66202.8 K

Respond & Feedback

Respond & Feedback

NWS: How We Do It

IBM SP at Bowie Computer Center in Bowie, MD

FeedbackFeedback

DistributeDistribute

LocalOfficesLocal

OfficesCentral

GuidanceCentral

GuidanceProcessProcess

ObserveObserve

Products & Services

NCEP NCEP

High Performance Computer

• Current IBM SP is 5th most powerful weather supercomputer in the world!– (46X Faster than the Cray C90, 3.0 tflops peak performance)– (The new IBM: 4.9X faster than current IBM SP, 11.4 tflops peak performance, on

average over 3 year base period)• 584 nodes with four 375 MHz CPUs each (2336 processors)

– (The new IBM: 86 nodes with 32 CPUs each [36 nodes have 1.8 GHz CPUs, 50 nodes have 1.3 GHz CPUs (2752 processors) by June 04)

• Ingests over 3.9 million observation reports daily • Produces 100 gigabytes of information daily• NCEP transmits 174,314 model products each day• Supports weather and climate numerical models

IBM SP at Bowie Computer Center in Bowie, MD

NCEP Models

Today Future

Global Forecast System

~75 km/42 levels to 7 days


4 times/day

~55km/64 levels to 3.5 days

~75km/42 levels to 7.5 days


4 times/day

Regional

Eta

12 km/60 levels 2times/day

84 hrs at 0 and 12Z; 48 hrs at 6 and 18Z

10 km/70 levels

Hurricane two nested (½ and 1/6 deg lat/lon)

18 levels

126 hrs at 00 and 12Z

78 hrs at 6 and 18Z

42 levels; upgraded physics

Rapid Update Cycle

(for aviation forecasts)

20 km/50 levels 24 times/day

12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z

3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14,

16,17,19,20,22,23Z

NCEP Models

Today Future

Ocean Wave Modelsignificant wave height, directions, frequencies etc.

Global

Alaskan Regional

W. North Atlantic

E. North Pacific

(all 2 times/day to 126 hours)

1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon

.5 x .25 deg lat/lon



data assimilation for the global

Coastal Ocean Forecast System (COFS) temp, salinity, surface elevation, and currents

2 times/day to 48 hours

resolution varies from ~20km offshore to ~10km near shore

18 layers

Climate ~200 km/28 levels – once/month

20 member ensemble to 7 months

Weekly global ocean data assimilation system

Global Links

Linking the Global Observing Systems to NCEP Models

The Relationship among Global-Regional-Local Models

Global Observing Systems

In situRadiosondesAircraftShipsBuoysSurface

Remotely sensedGEOLEOGPS/moistureRadarProfilers

NCEP’sGlobal Forecast System

~75 kmHorizontalResolution42 Levels

NCEP’sRegionalEta Model

12 kmHorizontalResolution50 levels

NCEP’sGFDLHurricaneModel

Outer Grid0.5 x 0.5 degInner Grid1/6 x 1/6 deg

NCEP’sGFDLHurricaneModel

Outer Grid0.5 x 0.5 degInner Grid1/6 x 1/6 deg

NCEP’sWave Watch III

Pink – Alaskan0.5 x .25 deg

Yellow – Eastern North Pacific.25 x .25 deg

Red – Western North Atlantic.25 x .25 deg

Global1.25 x 1 deg

Hurricane Swells

Olga is far from any land in the deep Atlantic

Wind speeds (kt)

Olga at 11/27/2001 12Z

Peak wave period (s) Wave height (m)

Substantial deep ocean swells hit the Greater Antilles, in particular Puerto Rico. WFO San Juan reported visual obs. of 12-13s waves at 8-9ft at the beach, together with coastal flooding.

13-14 second, swells , 3-4m

http://polar.wwb.noaa.gov/waves

HYSPLIT Dispersion Model

• Initialized with winds, temperature, pressure and precipitation from Eta model

• HYSPLIT runs are made routinely 4 times per day from 12 km Meso Eta for many locations around the U.S.

• Additional requests for runs may be called in to NCEP SDM through WFOs

• Special on-demand 4 km support of HYSPLIT available • Lat-lon called into NCEP’s SDM• Normally scheduled HiRes Window

run replaced by special 4 km run of Nonhydrostatic Meso Model to 18 hr followed by run of HYSPLIT

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

JUL SEP NOV JAN MAR MAY

Nu

mb

er o

f M

on

thly

Hit

s Access introduced

July 17, 2001

Popularity of Web Page Access to NCEP Models

Who Accesses Our ProductsThrough the Web

NCEP Web Page Usage by Domain

May 2001 – April 2002

Average Daily HitsAll NCEP Sites

Err

or

(nau

tica

l m

iles

)

1970 1980 1990 2000 Year

TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

1970-1986 trendline 1987-2000 trendline

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models

Aviation Model Hurricane Track Forecasts 1995-2001 Atlantic Basin

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995-99 avg 2000-2001 avg Difference

Pe

rce

nt

Imp

rov

em

en

t O

ve

r C

LIP

ER

12

24

36

48

72

Hurricane Michelle October 29 – November 5, 2001

D ecem ber 200 1 - Februa ry 2002 A bove N ormal

B elow N ormal

Observed

Temperature

D ecem ber 1998 - Feb rua ry 1 999




Forec ast(H alf M onth L ead)

H ow F ar in A d v an ce T h e F o reca st W a s M a d e(M o n th s)

0 .5 1 .5 2 .5 3 .5 4 .5 5 .5 6 .5 7 .5 8 .5 9 .5 1 0 .5 1 1 .5 1 2 .5L ea d

-5 0

-4 0

-3 0

-2 0

-1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 0 0

Hei

dk

e S

kill

Winters

1995-961996-97

1997-981998-991999-2000

2001-022000-01

(DJ F, J F M )

0

A bove N ormal

B elow N ormal

P rec ipitationForec as t

Decem ber 2000 - Februa ry 2001


D e c e m b e r 1 9 9 8 - F e b r u a r y 1999



(H alf M onth L ead)

H ow F ar in A d v an ce T h e F o re ca st W a s M a d e(M o n th s)

0.5 1 .5 2 .5 3 .5 4 .5 5 .5 6 .5 7 .5 8 .5 9 .5 10 .51 1 .51 2 .5L ea d

-5 0

-4 0

-3 0

-2 0

-1 0

0

1 0

2 0

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

10 0

Hei

dk

e S

kil

l

Winters

1995-961996-97

1997-981998-991999-2000

2001-022000-01

(DJ F, J F M )

Precipitation Forecast –

3 day % correct

(HPC)

22 19 17 33

U.S. Seasonal Temperature – Heidke Skill (CPC)

20 20 20 NA

Marine (wind/wave) Forecasts – % Accuracy (MPC)

51 52 53 NA

Hurricane Track Forecasts – nm

48 hrs (TPC)X 125 142 NA

01 Goal 01 Actual 02 Goal 02 so far

NCEP GPRA Status

Challenges

Climate-Weather-Water linkages Bridging research to operations

Community modeling Optimal use of the global observing system

Assimilation of ocean data Assimilation of satellite and radar data JCSDA

NOAA Operations and Science Center

Appendix

Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) Modeling System

Promote closer ties between research and operations

Develop an advanced mesoscale forecast and assimilation system

Context:

Design for 1-10 km horizontal grids

Advanced data assimilation and model physics

Accurate and efficient across a broad range of scales

Well-suited for both research and operations

Community model support

http://wrf-model.org

Computing Capability & ModelingComputing Capability & Modeling

80km 32km

22km 12km

1993

Sample coverage of an 8 km grid pointSample coverage of an 8 km grid point

1998

2000 2002

8 km

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

AprM

ay Jun

Jul

AugSep O

ctNov Dec Ja

nFeb

Mar Apr

May

05

101520

253035

4045

AprM

ay Jun

Jul

AugSep O

ctNov Dec Ja

nFeb

Mar Apr

May

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

AprM

ay Jun

Jul

AugSep O

ctNov Dec Ja

nFeb

Mar Apr

May

01

234

567

89

AprM

ay Jun

Jul

AugSep O

ctNov Dec Ja

nFeb

Mar Apr

May

Monthly Web Hits by Center

HPC CPC

SPC TPC

In millions

In millions

In millions

In millions

381 km1 layer

190.5 km7 layer

~75 km42L

~105 km18L

~155 km18L

Hemispheric Global

~400km12L

381 km3 layer

381 km6 layer

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

year

err

or

(kn

ots

)Tropical Prediction Center

Performance measure: yearly-average official 48-hour Atlantic intensity forecast error, Atlantic basinGoal: continue 1975-2000 linear trend line of the performance measure through the year 2005

Documents

NCEP Overview