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NCEP Production Suite Review:Land-Hydrology at NCEP

Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology TeamEnvironmental Modeling Center (EMC)

National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NOAA/NWS

NCEP Production Suite Review, 6-8 December 2011NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

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Land model role: Energy Budget• Noah land model closes the surface energy budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.

seasonal storage

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• Noah land model closes the surface water budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.

Land model role: Hydrological Cycle

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• Noah model has realistic land physics & is coupled with NCEP short-range NAM, medium-range GFS, and seasonal CFS, and run “uncoupled”, i.e. NLDAS, and GLDAS (in Climate Forecast System).

NCEP-NCAR unified Noahland-

surface model

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Uncoupled“NLDAS”(drought)

Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM

Satellites99.9%

Regional NAMWRF NMM

(including NARR)

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation (ARW-based)

ClimateCFS

1.7B Obs/Day

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

Noah Land Model Connections in NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

MOM32-Way Coupled Oceans

HYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

Regional DataAssimilation

Global DataAssimilation

North American Ensemble Forecast System

GFS, Canadian Global Model

NOAH Land Surface Model

NCEP-NCAR unified

Land model validation• Low-level observations (e.g. 2-m temperature &

humidity, 10-m winds); 10+ year data set.

• Additionally: upper air scores, precipitation threat & bias scores, specific flux site validation.www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/nearsfc/nearsfc.verf.html

July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s)

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0 24 48 72hr

obs: solid, NAM: short-dash, GFS: long-dash

eastwest 2010

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0 24 48 72hr

2011

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00Z Forecast Cycle

2011: NMMB & New Land Data Set

Land-use type(1-km, MODIS)

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• New land-use (vegetation type) data set based on MODIS used by Noah land model in NAM.

• Better surface representation yields better surface fluxes and temperature forecasts in NAM.

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2011: CFSv2 and Land• Noah replaced OSU land model in CFS (from GFS).

• Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS): Daily update of land states via uncoupled Noah driven by CFS assimilation cycle atmospheric forcing and blended observations+model precipitation.

• Reasonable soil moisture climatology, and energy & water budgets closure.

• Reanalysis as initial conditions for reforecasts.

May Soil Moisture Climatology from 30-year NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), spun up from Noah land model coupled with CFS.

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2012: Extend GFS upgrade to NAM• Surface layer (surface roughness) modifications in

GFS (Xubin Zeng et al, Univ. Arizona) in 2010.

Operational:Cold bias in skin

temperature (left), warm bias

in air temperature (e.g. 48-hr 850mb

fcst, right).

New roughness:Improved skin temperature

(left), air temperature

(right).

00z08Jul2008-00z10Nov2008GFS-GOES, 3-day mean: 1-3July2007

2012: North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)

NLDAS four-model ensemble monthly soil moisture anomaly

July 30-year climo. July 1988 (drought) July 1993 (flood)

•Noah, SAC, VIC, Mosaic land models run uncoupled, driven by CPC observed precipitation and atmos. forcing from NCEP North American Regional Climate Data Assimilation System; output: 1/8-deg. land & soil states, surface fluxes, runoff & streamflow.

• Land model runs provide a 30-year climatology.•Anomalies used for drought monitoring; supports

National Integrated Drought Information System.www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas

July 2011

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2012: New land data sets

Green Vegetation Frac. (AVHRR)

Leaf Area Index (MODIS)

June 2007LAI

GVF

• Near realtime greenness frac.• LAI (Leaf Area

Index) = veg. density

• Better surface representation should yield better surface fluxes and T, RH, wind forecasts.• Update NAM, GFS, and other NCEP systems.

• MODIS snow-free albedo

• MODIS max snow albedo

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Future Land Model/Related Upgrades• Important for high-res (~downscaling): Lake model

& climatologies in NAM then GFS; Fire/burned area (account for surface changes); cycle land in future.

• Assimilation of surface quantities, e.g. soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, vegetation fraction.

• Surface layer turbulent mixing in stable conditions: affects surface fluxes and night-time temperatures.

• Under NEMS, unify Noah model in NCEP systems.

• River routing/streamflow (discharge to oceans).

• New Noah land model (coop. with NCAR/others): 3-layer snowpack, explicit canopy, dynamic vegetation, CO2-based transpiration, ground-water, air quality, ecosystems & biogeochemical cycles.

13Physics “Wheel of Pain”

Questions?