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NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP

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Michael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology Team Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NOAA/NWS. NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP. NCEP Production Suite Review, 6-8 December 2011 NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of NCEP Production Suite Review: Land-Hydrology at NCEP

  • *NCEP Production Suite Review:Land-Hydrology at NCEPMichael Ek and the EMC Land-Hydrology TeamEnvironmental Modeling Center (EMC)National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) NOAA/NWSNCEP Production Suite Review, 6-8 December 2011NOAA Science Center, Camp Springs, Maryland

  • *Land model role: Energy Budget Noah land model closes the surface energy budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.

  • * Noah land model closes the surface water budget, & provides surface boundary conditions to NCEP models.Land model role: Hydrological Cycle

  • *Noah model has realistic land physics & is coupled with NCEP short-range NAM, medium-range GFS, and seasonal CFS, and run uncoupled, i.e. NLDAS, and GLDAS (in Climate Forecast System).NCEP-NCAR unified Noahland-surface model

  • *Air QualityWRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRFWRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM Satellites99.9%Regional NAMWRF NMM (including NARR)Hurricane GFDLHWRFGlobalForecastSystemDispersion

    ARL/HYSPLITSevere WeatherRapid Updatefor Aviation (ARW-based)ClimateCFS1.7B Obs/DayShort-RangeEnsemble ForecastNoah Land Model Connections in NOAAs NWS Model Production SuiteMOM32-Way CoupledOceansHYCOM

    WaveWatch III

    NAM/CMAQRegional DataAssimilationGlobal DataAssimilationNorth American Ensemble Forecast SystemGFS, Canadian Global Model

  • Land model validationLow-level observations (e.g. 2-m temperature & humidity, 10-m winds); 10+ year data set.Additionally: upper air scores, precipitation threat & bias scores, specific flux site monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s)5obs: solid, NAM: short-dash, GFS: long-dasheastwest2010*2011353434300Z Forecast Cycle

  • 2011: NMMB & New Land Data SetLand-use type(1-km, MODIS)* New land-use (vegetation type) data set based on MODIS used by Noah land model in NAM. Better surface representation yields better surface fluxes and temperature forecasts in NAM.

  • **2011: CFSv2 and LandNoah replaced OSU land model in CFS (from GFS).Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS): Daily update of land states via uncoupled Noah driven by CFS assimilation cycle atmospheric forcing and blended observations+model precipitation.Reasonable soil moisture climatology, and energy & water budgets closure.Reanalysis as initial conditions for reforecasts.May Soil Moisture Climatology from 30-year NCEP Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), spun up from Noah land model coupled with CFS.

  • *2012: Extend GFS upgrade to NAMSurface layer (surface roughness) modifications in GFS (Xubin Zeng et al, Univ. Arizona) in 2010.Operational:Cold bias in skin temperature (left), warm bias in air temperature (e.g. 48-hr 850mb fcst, right).New roughness:Improved skin temperature (left), air temperature (right).00z08Jul2008-00z10Nov2008GFS-GOES, 3-day mean: 1-3July2007

  • 2012: North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)NLDAS four-model ensemble monthly soil moisture anomalyJuly 30-year climo.July 1988 (drought)July 1993 (flood)Noah, SAC, VIC, Mosaic land models run uncoupled, driven by CPC observed precipitation and atmos. forcing from NCEP North American Regional Climate Data Assimilation System; output: 1/8-deg. land & soil states, surface fluxes, runoff & streamflow.Land model runs provide a 30-year climatology.Anomalies used for drought monitoring; supports National Integrated Drought Information 2011*

  • *2012: New land data setsGVF Near realtime greenness frac. LAI (Leaf Area Index) = veg. density Better surface representation should yield better surface fluxes and T, RH, wind forecasts. Update NAM, GFS, and other NCEP systems. MODIS snow-free albedo MODIS max snow albedo

  • *Future Land Model/Related UpgradesImportant for high-res (~downscaling): Lake model & climatologies in NAM then GFS; Fire/burned area (account for surface changes); cycle land in future.Assimilation of surface quantities, e.g. soil moisture, surface temperature, snowpack, vegetation fraction.Surface layer turbulent mixing in stable conditions: affects surface fluxes and night-time temperatures.Under NEMS, unify Noah model in NCEP systems.River routing/streamflow (discharge to oceans).New Noah land model (coop. with NCAR/others): 3-layer snowpack, explicit canopy, dynamic vegetation, CO2-based transpiration, ground-water, air quality, ecosystems & biogeochemical cycles.

  • *Questions?