JAMES NELSONANCHORAGE WFO

12/7/2011

NCEP Review

What we like2

New NAM is performing well over the forecast area in the recent storms - subjective

HPC long range support has been very good. The stats have bore this result.

Extra-Tropical Storm Surge DataGridded MOSIce Drift ForecastsWRF-RR – Aviation and short-term

Possible use in RTMA when it gets spun up operationally

Needs/Wants3

NCO GFS 3hr output WRF-RR output for AK NAM Nests NAEFS products

MMB Near-Shore Wave Modeling over the Fjords of

Southeast and through Prince William Sound. Currently working with Andre.

Ice Model with evaluation from Alaska Ice Desk possibly working with NIC.

Collaborative Possibilities4

SPC Collaboration with Aviation Unit on their Convective

Outlook Product for Alaska Fire Wx threats

CPC Threats page participation

OPC Collaboration on grids/forecast Volcanic Ash

Notes5

Under-dispersive GEFS in high impact events - subjective

18z run of GFS in our domain is a poor performer – subjective Therefore, reducing the effectiveness of the 12Z NAM

due to boundary condition contamination

SREF data ok with Aviation parameters.

Significant Rain Event6

Large Precipitation Event – October 25-26Models significantly underforecasted the

eventBrings to the forefront of the predictability of

significant rainfall events.Models generally were half the amount that

was observed.

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Odd Find – Marine Verification12

Looking over our Marine Verification we decided to try some other stats and break them down

Found some odd features over AlaskaGFS model performance improvements

varied from North to South

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“EPIC” Bering Storm14

Guidance was good. Mentions of the large storm were highlighted up to 5

days in advance with Emergency Manager briefing (Happens every Friday)

Continued performance was there as well with intensity forecast.

ETSS was a big help and graphics were very useful to push to the public.

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Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of at least Hurricane-force (official values unless noted):

Cape Lisburne 81 mph at 700 AM AKST Wed Nov 9

Gambell 74 mph at 600 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Kotzebue 74 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Little Diomede (Unofficial) 93 mph late Tue night Nov 9 Point Hope 78 mph at 500 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 (incomplete due to power outage; an unofficial maximum is 85

mph) Savoonga 76 mph at 700 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Tin City 85 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Wales 89 mph at 142 AM AKST Wed Nov 9

Damage

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Locations with Maximum Wind Gusts of 55 to 73 mph (official values): Cape Romanzof 60 mph at 300 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Buckland 56 mph at 316 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Deering 61 mph at 319 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Emmonak 62 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Golovin 64 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Kivalina 71 mph at 323 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Marshall 64 mph at 1100 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Noatak 62 mph at 1036 am AKST Wed Nov 9 Nome 61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Noorvik 67 mph at 423 am AKST Wed Nov 9 Saint Marys 61 mph at 900 PM AKST Tue Nov 8 Shaktoolik 64 mph at 115 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Shishmaref 67 mph at 1216 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Shungnak 69 mph at 900 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 St. Michael 68 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Teller 71 mph at 600 AM AKST Wed Nov 9 Unalakleet 66 mph at 1200 AM AKST Wed Nov 9