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NCEP Update “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” 21 st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 17 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction August 1, 2005 Washington, DC Dr. Stephen Lord Director, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP

NCEP Update

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NCEP Update. 21 st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/ 17 th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction August 1, 2005 Washington, DC. “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”. Dr. Stephen Lord Director, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP. Overview. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Text of NCEP Update

  • NCEP Update

    Where Americas Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/17th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction

    August 1, 2005Washington, DC

    Dr. Stephen LordDirector, Environmental Modeling Center/NCEP

  • OverviewDefine NCEPProgrammatic AdvancementsService CentersModelingSummary

  • Define NCEPExpanding MissionFrom the Sun to the Sea

  • NCEP Supports the NOAA Seamless Suite of Climate Weather and Ocean Products Mission: NCEP delivers analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for weather, ocean, climate, water, land surface and space weather to the nation and the world. NCEP provides science-based products and services through collaboration with partners and users to protect life and property, enhance the nations economy and support the nations growing need for environmental information. Space Environment Center Storm Prediction CenterAviation Weather CenterNCEP Central Operations Climate Prediction Center Environmental Modeling Center Hydrometeorological Prediction Center Ocean Prediction CenterTropical Prediction CenterVision: Striving to be Americas first choice, first alert and preferred partner for climate, weather and ocean prediction services.Organization: Central component of NOAAs National Weather Service

  • What Does NCEP Do?Solar Monitoring, Warnings and ForecastsClimate Forecasts: Weekly to Seasonal to InterannualEl Nino La Nina ForecastWeather Forecasts to Day 7Hurricanes, Severe Weather, Snowstorms, Fire WeatherAviation (Turbulence, Icing)High Seas Forecasts and WarningsModel Development, Implementation and Applications for Global and Regional Weather, Climate, Oceans and now Space WeatherInternational Partnerships in Ensemble ForecastsData Assimilation including the Joint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationSuper Computer, Workstation and Network Operations

    From the Sun to the Sea

  • Programmatic Advancements Future Location Computing Capability Product generation summary Entering the age of air quality prediction

  • NCEPs Future LocationCurrent LocationNOAA Science CenterWorld Weather BuildingCamp SpringsNew LocationNOAA Center for Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park(FY08)

  • NCEPs Future LocationNOAA Center for Weather and Climate PredictionUMD Research Park, College Park(FY08)

  • National Weather Center (NWC)Norman, OklahomaNWS -Storm Prediction Center (SPC)OAR-National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)DOC/DOD/DOT-WSR-88D Radar Operations Center (ROC)NWS Warning Decision Training Branch (WDTB)NWS -Weather Forecast Office (WFO)Occupancy Summer 2006

  • Computing Capability

    Receives Over 123 Million Global Observations DailySustained Computational Speed: 1.485 Trillion Calculations/SecGenerates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each DayGlobal Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate)Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather)Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion)3.2x upgrade operational on January 25, 2005Backup in Fairmont, WV operational January 25, 2005Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003)$26.4M/Year Investment

  • 20012002200320042005Popularity of NCEP Models Web Page

  • Space Environment CenterSEC formally joined NCEP/NWS/NOAA on January 9Their addition helps foster a seamless suite of operational products from the Sun to the SeaR&D to operations structure makes them a natural fitLinkage of SEC products to other more traditional NWS and NCEP products (e.g., aviation, climate)Service/Science linkage offers many exciting challenges for future growth to insure the delivery of weather/ocean/climate products to a diverse and increasingly sophisticated user community.

  • Air Quality Prediction at NCEP Initial (FY2003 FY2008): 1-day forecasts of surface ozone (O3) concentration (twice per day) using NOAA/EPA community model for AQ (CMAQ) linked to 12 km EtaValidated in testing over Northeastern US domain during 03 and 04 Declared operational September 13, 2004Increased domain to cover Eastern US in 05Deploy Nationwide within 5 yearsIntermediate (FY2008 FY2010):Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter (PM) concentrationLonger range (by FY2013):Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hoursInclude broader range of significant pollutantsNortheastDomainEast DomainFY05FY03-04

  • Service Centers Performance measures Test beds NDFD

  • NHC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast ErrorsAdvances RelatedTo USWRP

  • Error (nautical miles)

    Year

    1970-1986 trendline

    1987-1996 trendline

    Major Upgrades in Global andHurricane Numerical models

    1997-2002 trendline

    Chart1

    254

    381.9

    687.9

    363.2

    348.3

    401.9

    433

    484.7

    422.8

    238.6

    404.8

    422.9

    269.3

    439.6

    390.1

    330.1

    383.6

    349.1

    230.9

    283.5

    303.7

    296.8

    278.4

    240.7

    341.8

    233.2

    189.9

    229.3

    201.8

    211.4

    220.7

    187.7

    179.7

    132

    143

    72-h

    Sheet4

    year24 hr track48 hr track72 hr track

    error nmierror nmierror nmi

    197084.3185.9254

    1971110.7242.1381.9

    1972142.4390.5687.9

    1973116.8246.3363.2

    197497.2206.6348.3

    1975117256.9401.9

    1976128.2287.8433

    1977133331.1484.7

    1978144.3323.6422.8

    197989.5160.2238.6

    1980128.7273.3404.8

    1981126248.4422.9

    1982131.2244.7269.3

    198385.3197.1439.6

    1984132.1266.7390.1

    1985109.9221.7330.1

    1986107.5237.6383.6

    1987108.6229.7349.1

    198869.7143.1230.9

    198995.7192.9283.5

    1990101.3194.8303.7

    1991113.6192296.8

    199283166.8278.4

    1993102.4177.9240.7

    1994102.8209.8341.8

    199587.1159.4233.2

    199672128.2189.9

    199785.5150.2229.3

    199884.1144.9201.8

    199970.3139.9211.4

    200070.7131.7220.7

    200174.1125.1187.7

    200266.2122.3179.7

    200357107132

    200453.794.4143

  • Preliminary track errorDennis Emily

  • HPC Forecasters Add ValueModels provide basis for improvementCorrelationsOf HPC with:Eta: 0.99GFS: 0.74NGM: 0.85(DOC GPRA goal)

  • Test Beds

    CenterTest BedActivitiesAWCAviation Test BedTurbulence/IcingCPCClimate Test BedMulti-model ensemble for SIEMCDevelopmental Test BedHPCHydromet Test BedWinter Wx DeskSPCHazardous Weather Test BedSpring experiment WRF testingTPCJoint Hurricane Test BedHurricane intensity

  • NCEPs Role in NDFDHPCProvide digital guidance for use by forecasters in the digital forecast processDay 4-7 max/min temps, 12 hour PoPs,Td, sky cover, wind direction and speed and precip type QPF: Day 1-3, 6-hourly; Day 4-5 48 hour total

  • Day 5Day 4Day 6Day 7Max Temperature ForecastsValid July 27, 2005

  • ModelingCurrent models InterdependenceIntroduction of the new Climate Forecast SystemModel Plans in near future ~ 07WRF, ESMF

  • GlobalForecast System*Climate Forecast SystemGFDLHurricaneNOAH Land Surface ModelDispersionAir QualityCurrent Model DependenciesRapid Update CycleGLOBALDATAOceanOceanNorth American Mesoscale Model(NAM)OceanShort-RangeEnsembleMedium RangeEnsemble

  • First global operational atmosphere-ocean coupled dynamic model (implemented August, 2004)Climate Forecast System (CFS)First climate forecast system to beat statistical approaches

    The NCEP Coupled Climate Forecast System

  • GlobalForecast System*Climate Forecast SystemHurricaneWRFNOAH Land Surface ModelDispersionAir QualityNear Future Model Dependencies ~ FY07WRF Rapid RefreshGLOBALDATAOceanOceanRegional Weather Forecast ModelWRF-basedOceanShort-RangeEnsemble (WRF)Medium RangeEnsemble (NAEFS

  • WRFNOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRLThe next-generation mesoscale NWP modeling system for research and operationsSustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCARRecent implementation of Hi-res Window for hazardous weather (ARW and NMM) on 6/28/05 at ~5km6 new members to be added to the SREF system consisting of an unperturbed (control) and a single breeding pair of ensemble members each for the WRF-ARW and the WRF-NMM twice per day by 4th Q 05

    CMINCARARWNCEPNMMExplicit Cores(e.g., Hurricane, Dispersion, Aviation)

  • Weather and Research Forecast ModelPrototype for Hurricane WRF (HWRF)Initialized as tropical storm108 h: landfall forecast (error
  • 4km WRF - ARW 4km WRF - NMM 2km WRF - ARW 1h Base REFNCEP SPC/NSSL Spring Experiment 20052 km and 4 km WRF Experiments

  • Earth System Modeling FrameworkESMF definitionGlobal common model infrastructureNCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEPBasis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast systemGeneralized model to include hybrid coordinateCommon model and data assimilation superstructurePotential unified global and regional systemESMF StatusHave successfully coupled NCEP global analysis with NCAR-NASA fvCAM using ESMFWill couple GFS with GFDL MOM4 ocean model using ESMF by end of 2005

  • Increasing Role of Community Approach to Advancing Operational ModelsFront endJoint Center for Satellite Data AssimilationNASA NOAA DODMiddleWRF (NOAA, AFWA, NCAR, FAA, NRL)ESMF (NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP)Back endNOMADS UCAR/CONDUIT

  • SummaryWorking with community in model development and applications across entire spectrum from climate to weatherExpanding its mission space weather, air quality model, future role in operational ocean model being consideredAddressing infrastructure issues computer/buildingsStrategically positioned to advance climate and weather forecast and support and address earth model issues for environmental prediction (air, water, ecosystem quality)NCEP is

    The data points for the Cray operations in Suitland are typical for the entire life of the system.

    When the J90 backup operations were in place, additional products were being delivered to the NWS Telecommunications gateway from backup operations at OSO. Those backup products were not included in these statistics. This summary only covers products delivered from NCEP directly.

    Even after the IBM SP became operational in Bowie, data ingest and product generation continued on the Cray J90s in Suitland. May 2000 is the first full month with no dependency on the Suitland complex.

    Operations on the IBM SP has been extremely stable. Product Delivery in December achieved its highest level, with 98.7% of products delivered on time. Note the dramatic improvement in OOS retrieval of products from the Phase II system.Contrasting Temperatures in USPeriods of record and near-record warmth in West (6 states much warmer than average for season)27 states significantly colder than average in East2nd warmest winter on record in Alaska