NCEP UpdateNAEDEX-21

Brent GordonNCEP Central Operations

September 17, 2008

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Topics

• NCEP Mission and Vision• NCEP – Who we are• NCEP Infrastructure – How we accomplish

our mission• NCEP Modeling Update• Model Evaluations• GRIB2 Transition• New Building• NCEP NAEDEX Action Items

3

NCEP Mission

• Mission – NCEP delivers science-based environmental predictions to the Nation and the global community. We collaborate with partners and customers to produce reliable, timely, and accurate analyses, guidance, forecasts and warnings for the protection of life and property and the enhancement of the national economy.

• Vision – The Nation’s trusted source, first alert and preferred partner for environmental prediction services

“From the Sun to the Sea…Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin”

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5

HPC Technology

• Gaithersburg (primary) and Fairmont (backup) Operations (Last upgrade Jan 07)

– 15.5 Tflops Linpack sustained per system– 148 Power 5+ Nodes– 2,368 processors (16 per node), 1.9 gigahertz

speed) – 4,736 gigabytes of shared memory – 150 terabytes of disk space– 75 terabyte tape archive

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HPC TechnologyIBM Power 6

• Final Contract Option with IBM now being executed

• Two Identical systems– 93.9 Peak Tflops Linpack sustained per system– 156 Power 6 Nodes– 4,992 processors (32 per node), 4.7 GHz speed) – 128 GB memory per node– 180 terabytes of disk space per system

• 160 TB multi-clustered GPFS (10 GBPS backbone)

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• Gaithersburg, DC (NCEP) – IBM Supercomputer System

• 8.7 TFlops Linpack sustained • 1392 Power5+ processors (1328 compute processors), 2.7 Terabytes of

memory, 160 Terabytes of disk space, 5.5/9.7/13.2 Petabytes of Nearline tape storage in 2007/2008/2009

• Princeton, NJ (GFDL)– SGI Supercomputer System

• 5248 Itanium processors, 10.3 TB of memory, 516 TB of disk space, 6.8 PB of Nearline tape storage

• Boulder, CO (GSD)– Appro Supercomputer System

• 1440 Woodcrest Xeon processors, 1.5 TB of memory, 168 TB of disk space, 0.5 PB of Nearline tape storage

NOAA R&D Infrastructure

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NCEP Network

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NCEP Modeling Update

• JCSDA• Global• Mesoscale (atmospheric)• Hurricanes• Ocean Models

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Air Quality

WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF

WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM GFS, Canadian Global Model

Satellites99.9%

Regional NAMWRF NMM

North American Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane GFDLHWRF

GlobalForecastSystem

Dispersion

ARL/HYSPLIT

Forecast

Severe Weather

Rapid Updatefor Aviation

ClimateCFS

1.7B Obs/Day

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite

MOM3

NOAH Land Surface Model

Coupled

Global DataAssimilation

OceansHYCOM

WaveWatch III

NAM/CMAQ

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NASA/Earth Science Division

US Navy/Oceanographer andNavigator of the Navy and NRL

NOAA/NESDIS NOAA/NWS

NOAA/OAR

US Air Force/Director of Weather

Mission:

…to accelerate and improve the quantitative use of research and operational satellite data in weather, ocean, climate and environmental analysis and prediction models.

Vision:

An interagency partnership working to become a world leader in applying satellite data and research to operational goals in environmental analysis and prediction

Established 2002

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Accomplishments• Community radiative transfer model (CRTM) (all partners)

• Common assimilation infrastructure (NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO)

• Common NOAA/NASA land data assimilation system (EMC, GSFC, AFWA)

• Interfaces between JCSDA models and external researchers

• Snow/sea ice emissivity model – 300% increase in number of satellite soundings used in high latitudes (STAR, EMC)

• MODIS polar winds implemented (EMC, GMAO, FNMOC) – Nov ‘05

• AIRS radiances implemented (EMC, GMAO) – May ‘05

• COSMIC implemented (EMC, AFWA) – May ‘07

• Improved physically based SST analysis (EMC)

• Data denial experiments for major components of GOS (GMAO)

S. Hemisphere 500mb AC Z 20S - 80S Waves 1-20

1 Jan - 27 Jan '04

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NCEPGlobal Weather Modeling

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NCEP/GEFS Major Implementation Plan (FY08/09)

• Upgrade horizontal resolution from T126 to T190 for 20 perturbed forecasts– 4 cycles per day– Up to 180 hours– T126 from 180 hours , up to 384 hours (16 days)– Using 8th order horizontal diffusion for all leading time forecast

• Extend 16 days forecast to 31 days– 00Z cycle only– T126L28 resolution– User request (for MJO prediction)

• Introduce ESMF (Earth System Modeling Framework) for GEFS– Version 3.1.0 – allows concurrent generation of all ensemble members.

• Add stochastic perturbation scheme to account for model errors– Increasing model spread– Improving the forecast skills

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NAEFS product upgrade plan (FY08/09)

• NAEFS data exchange– Add approximately 15-23 new variables to current 51 pgrba for NAEFS

data exchange (in discussion)• Such as vertical shear, helicity, u,v, t, RH for 100, 50hPa, LH, SWR, LWR

at surface, and etc..– Use GRIB2 format for data exchange

• Approximated 45-60m time saving

• New NAEFS downscaling products– For Alaska region (~6km NDFD grids)

• Surface pressure, T2m, U10m and V10m– Having new variables for both CONUS and Alaska regions

• Tmax, Tmin, 10m wind direction and speed

• Dedicated line for NCEP and CMC NAEFS data exchange– DS-3 (sooner?)– Time saving (high expectation)

04/21/23 16

NAEFS Expansion

• Plans to be coordinated with THORPEX– Links with Phase-2 TIGGE archive and beyond (GIFS)

• Expansion– FNMOC (join NAEFS pending on the evaluation)

• Experimental data exchange started from April 2008• Preliminary evaluation by end of 2008 (1 year evaluation period)• Operational implementation by 2010 (subject to improved performance)

– ECMWF (use data only)• Start to collect ECMWF ensemble data from May 2008• Preliminary evaluation by May of 2009 (1 year evaluation period)• Operational adding bias corrected ECMWF ensemble to NAEFS (subject

to improved performance)– UK MetOffice

• Decision on going operational & possibly joining NAEFS - by 2008– KMA, CMA, JMA

• Expressed interest, no detailed plans yet

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GFS & GSI Plans Beyond 1 year

• Semi-Lagrangian• Increase resolution (vertical & horizontal)• New cloud & precip microphysics• Overhaul of turbulence and moist physics• Continue to work toward 4DVAR• Continue to add observations• May require forecast model linearizations

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NCEP POST

• NCEP POST: a unified POST for ALL NCEP atmospheric models– Generalization of the NAM POST (aka WRF POST).– Several GFS post algorithms will be included

• GFS definition of relative humidity• isentropic level output• dynamic tropopause

• User requested fields added 2007:– Sigma layer temperature at .90, .85, .80, .75, .70, 3 hourly intervals– Omega on 500-700 mb layer– Satellite look-alike product (broadband channel)– Richardson number & Ellrod index– Elevated CAPE diagnostic (300-60 pressure difference)– Diagnostic surface visibility– Satellite look-alike product (narrower instrument channels)

• User requested fields waiting until at least FY08:– Simulated radar reflectivity– Turbulent kinetic energy– Simulated echo tops– Model gravity wave diagnostic

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Mesoscale Modeling

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HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested Runs4 km run Configuration

• FOUR routine runs made at the same time every day

• 00Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 06Z : WCentral & Puerto

Rico• 12Z : ECentral & Hawaii• 18Z : Alaska & Puerto Rico• Everyone gets daily high

resolution runs if & only if hurricane runs are not needed

Data to be on NOAAPORT soon!

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HiResWindow WRF Configurations (No Parameterized Convection)

WRF-NMM WRF-ARW

Horizontal Grid Spacing (km)

4.0 5.1

Vertical Levels 35

Sigma-Pressure

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Sigma

PBL/Turbulence MYJ YSU

Microphysics Ferrier WSM3

Land-Surface NOAH NOAH

Radiation (SW/LW) GFDL/GFDL Dudhia/RRTM

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Pyle Webpage Now Displaying Simulated Reflectivityhttp://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/

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NAM Future Plans

• Current machines (dew/mist) 1Q 2009– Minor model changes, e.g. shallow convection– Improve GSI

• Retain more of large scales from GFS– Partial cycling and strong constraint– Satellite channel bias correction

• Non-linear quality control • Test new sources of data

– TAMDAR & Canadian AMDAR– METOP2

• Next machine (providing ~3x dew/mist) 2009-2010– Parent run is 12 km with all its normal NAM products out to 84 hr– Add 4 km nests over CONUS and Alaska run to 48 hours only

• Nested fields available ~3 hours earlier than HiResWindow• 4 km output grids would be additional to existing NAM 12 km suite

– Possible move to new ESMF-based NEMS (NCEP Environmental Modeling Framework)

– NEMS nesting would allow HI + PR nests too but WRF wouldn’t

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Future 4 km Nests Imbedded in 12 km NAM

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12 km Terrain 4 km Terrain

Dots represent water points Domain is San Francisco Bay

GFS ~35km

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Hurricane Modeling

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Advanced Hurricane Modeling at

EMC: The Hurricane WRF (HWRF)

• Community based infrastructure • HWRF began development 2002 (so based on WRF v 2.0)

• Non-hydrostatic hurricane model• NMM dynamic core, GFS physics• Movable, nested grid

• Became operational in 2007 • GFDL now runs in parallel

• Coupled air-sea-land prediction system • Using POM but will use HYCOM in the future

• Advanced data assimilation for hurricane core • Making use of airborne doppler radar obs and land based radar

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HWRF HWRF

Hurricane Hurricane WilmaWilma

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HWRF HWRF DeanDean

E-W CrossE-W Cross

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HURRICANE INITIALIZATION – improve initial structure for weaker storms; improved balance; makes better use of TPC observed intensity/structure

MODEL - eliminate noise over topography due to moving nest (reformulate SLP); remove erroneous residual TKE (now consistent w/GFS physics)

POM INITIALIZATION

T&E (as requested by TPC) – ran ‘08 HWRF from ‘07 GFS for Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Dean

2008 HWRF UPGRADES 2008 HWRF UPGRADES

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Benchmark cases: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Benchmark cases: Dennis, Katrina, Rita, Wilma, DeanWilma, Dean

HWRF ‘08

HWRF ‘07

HWRF Track Error

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HWRF’07

HWRF’08

HWRF Intensity Error

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Ocean Modeling

http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov

Surface Wave Forecasting

Real-time Ocean Analysis and Forecasting

Sea Ice Analysis and Forecasting

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WAVEWATCH III

• Great Lakes Wave – to be driven by NWS NDFD forecast winds instead of NAM winds

• Coupled modeling:– Parallel testing of coupled wave model as part of HWRF.– ESMF version of wave model for inclusion in NEMS.

• Joining ensemble with FNMOC ensemble.• Beyond 2009:

– Upgrade of all physics (NOPP projects with ONR and USACE).– Extension of WAVEWATCH III to coastal zone with specific focus

on coupled wave-stormsurge modeling.– Site-specific WAVEWATCH III to replace local modeling efforts at

WFOs and to create a spiral development path for coastal wave modeling.

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WAVEWATCH III

• Still converting to new model code (multi-grid or mosaic approach).– Need to port data assimilation.– Need to port Hurricane wave models.

• 2009 implementations on new computer:– Increase internal spectral model resolution in preparation for

new physics.• Minor increase in model outputs, full use of increase in

computational resources.– Generating model output (GRIB) “on-the-fly” as becomes

available• Presently all model output is produced at the end of the

forecast run.

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The multi-grid wave model

Deep ocean model resolution dictated by

GFS model

Higher coastal model resolution dictated by

model economy

Highest model resolution in areas of

special interest

Hurricane nests moving with storm(s) like GFDL and

HWRF

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Ocean modeling

• RTOFS-Atlantic is the HYCOM-based Real Time Ocean Forecast system for the Atlantic ocean (1/12°, running daily).

• In late 2009 or early 2010, we intend to implement an operational RTOFS-Global model at 1/12°.– Close cooperation with Navy being developed, Navy support

needed until 2011 computer upgrade.– We may become a national portal for ocean model data from

NOAA, Navy and other partners, as a part of a National Ocean Modeling Backbone Capability.

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Ocean modeling

• Focus on coupled modeling:– HYCOM nested in RTOFS coupled in HWRF, parallel testing

in 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season.– HYCOM is ESMF compliant

• Ice model coupled into global HYCOM / RTOFS-Global.– Navy ice model available– NCEP and GLERL ice models under development.

• Bring into NEMS.– Beyond 2009 working with Navy and NOPP partners on

model improvement• Tides and internal tides.• Model efficiency.• Coupling to wave model for better boundary layer physics.

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NOAA NCEP Future Jigsaw

• Concurrent global and mesoscale and mesoscale ensemble

• Combined global-regional data assimilation

• Support for NextGen

• Enabled by ESMF (NCEP’s NEMS)

• Reforecasts done routinely

• Target 2015+ (subject to availability of funds)

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NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

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RUCFIREWXWAVESHUR/HRWGFSfcstGFSanalGFSensETAfcstETAanalSREFAir QualityOCEANMonthlySeasonal

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GENS/NAEFS

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NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems

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CFSMFS

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean & Climate Forecast Systems

Version 3.0 April 9, 2004

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CFS & MFS

GENS/NAEFSGFS

Next Generation PrototypePhase 4 – 2015+

Regional

Rap Refresh

Global

HURSREF

Reforecast

Hydro / NIDIS/FF

Hydro

NAM

GRDAS

RDAS

RTOFS RTOFSAQ

NCEP Production SuiteWeather, Ocean, Land & Climate Forecast Systems

AQ

Computing factor: 81

Added•Hourly GDAS & RDAS Moved• GFS concurrent w/ NAM & SREF Expanded• Hurricane capability (hires)•Reforecast done routinely

Examples of Recent Predictions

West Coast – December 1-3, 2007 January 4-6, 2008

Mid West – February 5-6, 2008

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Pacific Winter Storms

• Dec. 1-3 2007, Jan. 4-6, 2008

• OR, WA OR,CA

• Record-breaking winter storms

• Predicted 7-8 days in advance

• Ten feet of snow predicted 3 days in advance in CA (Jan storm)

12Z December 3, 2007

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West Coast Rain/Snow Event

00Z January 5, 2008

Forecast derived using a collaborative approach through all NWS forecast offices

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Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) Update

• Issued each Monday by Climate Prediction Center– http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/

CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf

MJO Update issued December 24, 2007:

• “Moderate MJO activity continues. After a short break, eastward propagation has resumed during the past week and the enhanced phase is currently centered in the western Maritime continent region…

• Some potential exists for a heavy precipitation event tied to tropical convection by week 3. Currently, however, details of this potential event are unclear but interests along the west coast of the US should monitor the status of the MJO during the next 1-2 weeks.”

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8-14 Day Outlook

January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm

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HazardsAssessment

January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm

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6-10 Day Outlook

January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm

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HPC 48-h Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

ending 00Z 6 JanIssued 00Z 1 JanDay 4-5 Forecast

8.78x

4-5 DayForecast

Verifying Analysis

48-h QPE ending 00Z 6 Jan

January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm

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HPC 72-hQuantitative Precipitation Forecast

ending 00Z 7 JanIssued 00Z 4 JanDay 1-3 forecast

10.24x

72-h QPE ending 00Z 7 Jan

Verifying Analysis

1-3 DayForecast

January 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm

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HPC 72-h PRISM adjustedsnow accumulation forecast ending 00Z 7 Jan

Issued 00Z 4 Jan

HPC analysis of storm-total snowfall (in.) 3–7 Jan

3 Day Total Snowfall Forecast00Z Jan 4 – 00Z Jan 7

Verifying AnalysisJanuary 4-6, 2008 Pacific Storm

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Super Tuesday Tornado OutbreakFebruary 5-6, 2008

– 63 tornadoes, 57 fatalities– Deadliest event since ’85– Outlook issued 6 days prior– POD 100% for tornadoes occurring in SPC watches– Average warning lead time 17 min

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HazardsAssessment

February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak

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February 5-6, 2008Tornado Outbreak

Day 4-8

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February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak

Day 3

Day 2

Categorical Probabilistic

Categorical Probabilistic

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February 5-6, 2008 Tornado Outbreak

Day 1

Convective High Winds

Hail Tornado

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Notification of Upcoming Implementation

• NCO WEB Site– http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/

• Mailing List – Notification of availability of test data for major model

upgrades– https://lstsrv.ncep.noaa.gov/mailman/listinfo/

ncep.list.modelevalinfo

• Weekly RFC Memo– List of every change to NCO’s IT infrastructure, as well as

CCS and dataflow changes

– http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/jifmemo/

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GRIB2 Transition

• Transition to GRIB2 is complete– GRIB1 datasets were removed from public data servers on

28 January 2008– A small number of products required to satisfy international

agreements were not removed and will remain for a number of years

– Five products were temporarily reinstated due to significant impact on end user operations

• All reinstated products scheduled for removal in September 2008

– Information about remaining GRIB1 products is available at:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/docs/GRIB1_to_GRIB2.shtml

– Utilities to convert between GRIB2 and GRIB1 are available at:http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/codes/GRIB2

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FY2009 – A series of Moratoriums

• Super Computer Upgrade to IBM Power-6 system– Moratorium required from Mid Dec 2008 through

March 2009

• NCEP moving from its current location in Camp Springs, MD to College Park, MD– Moratorium on super computer changes starting in

July 2009 through at least November 2009

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NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction

• Defined requirements for 268,762 RSF

• Includes housing 800+ Federal employees, contractors, and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research and satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

Construction Start 09-May-07

Move Start May 2009

Move Complete January 2010

Revised Construction Schedule

http://www.ncep.noaa.gov/news/ncwcp/latest.shtml

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NCWCP

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Questions

• Acknologements– Geoff Dimego, EMC Branch Chief of Mesoscale

modeling– Lauren Marone, NCEP Office of the Director

• Contact Info –– Brent.Gordon@noaa.gov– 301-763-8000 x7193

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Action Items From 19 & 20 NAEDEX

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NCEP Action Items

From NAEDEX-19• E.2.1.2 - NCEP 1/12 Sea Ice, 1/12 & ½ SST

– Both SST datasets to continue on GTS• 1/12 SST in GRIB2 ETWA88 KWBI

• ½ SST in GRIB1 OTLA88 KWBI

– Sea Ice• 1/12 and ½ deg data available at NCEP FTP server:

– ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov

– /pub/data/nccf/com/omb/prod/sice.{YYYYMMDD}

– GRIB2 files named seaice.t00z.*

• Now working to make 1/12 data available on GTS

– EEWA88 KWBM – Proposed data header

– Still a valid requirement?

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NCEP Action Items

From NAEDEX-19• E.4.10 – Ground based GPS from JPL

– Funding for the expansion (R2O) of this data acquisition has been cut at this time through FY10.

– NOAA/OAR funding for continued support is also in doubt.

– NWS working with NOAA to get funding reestablished.

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NCEP Action Items

From NAEDEX-19• Miscellaneous Actions

– Question of NCEP requirement for Surface current measurements

• Not currently a high priority item

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NCEP Action Items

From NAEDEX-20• Clarify Surface energy/water flux

observations request– Data found to be available through the FLUXNET

project (daac.ornl.gov/FLUXNET/)– Item can be closed.

• Clarify OPERA Request– NCEP request is for VAD winds only at this point

(reflectivity not currently required)

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NCEP Action Items

From NAEDEX-20• NCEP Requirement for Additional UKMO and

ECMWF model guidance– NCEP forecast centers still interested in higher

resolution (temporal and vertical) data sets– QPF, Precipitation type most important

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NCEP Action Items

From NAEDEX-20• EARS ATOVS discrepancies between data

provided by NESDIS and EUMETSAT– NCEP traced this issue back to the antenna

correction– NCEP would prefer to receive the uncorrected (1b)

data instead of the corrected (1c)• But we have a fix in place to get around this

– We are now waiting on the full RARS data set

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Backup

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NOAA WAVEWATCH III (NWW3) version 2.22

NWW3: Global, 1.25x1, 180h, 3-hourly GFS winds, with assimilation and a 10 member ensemble.

AKW: Alaskan Waters, 0.5x0.25, 180h forecast based on 3h GFS winds.

WNA and ENP: W. North Atlantic and E. North Pacific, 0.25x0.25, 180h forecast based on 3h GFS winds.

NAH and NPH: Hurricane version of WNA and ENP, 0.25x0.25, 126h forecast, 1h GFS+GFDL winds.

GLW: Great Lakes wave model, 4km, 84h, NAM winds.

All models: 24 directions, 25 frequencies, 4/day. Moving to 36 directions, 50 frequencies in 2009-2010

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NCEP/MMAB Wave Products

- Global and regional models for Alaskan Waters and Western North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific with up to 168 h forecasts, 4 times daily - Hurricane wave model combining global and GFDL model winds (Atlantic & East Pacific)

- NOAA Wavewatch III operational at FNMOC- Recent NWW3 upgrades Propagation Sub-grid islands Data assimilation (improves 0-12 h forecasts)

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Wave ensembles Using operational global

wave model set up. Control + 10 members based

on wind speeds from GFS ensemble members 3/28/2006.

Starting from initial conditions of control (no perturbation).

84 hour forecast, four times per day.

Mean and spread, probability plots and spaghetti diagrams.

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Global Ocean Prediction with HYCOM• Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) is a hybrid isopycnal-sigma-pressure ocean model

•Primitive equation with free surface

•Sub-grid scale parameterizations.

•Vertical and horizontal eddy viscosity and mixing. Diapycnal mixing.

•Tides & river outflow.

•Atmospheric fluxes

• Goal: to develop and demonstrate real-time, operational, high resolution ocean prediction systems for the Global Oceans and Basins• NCEP Partners with

• University of Miami/RSMAS• NRL Stennis, NRL Monterey, FNMOC• NOAA PMEL, AOML• Los Alamos National Laboratory• Others (international, commercial)

Chesapeake Bay

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Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Hurricane-Wave-Ocean-Surge-Inundation Coupled ModelsCoupled Models

High resolution Coastal, Bay & Estuarine hydrodynamic model

Atmosphere/oceanic Boundary Layer

HYCOM3D ocean circulationmodelWAVEWATCH III

Spectral wave model

NOAH LSM

NOSland and coastal waters

NCEP/Environmental Modeling CenterAtmosphere- Ocean-Wave-Land

runoff

fluxes

wave fluxes

wave spectra

windsair temp. SST

currents

elevations currents3D salinities temperatures

other fluxes

surgeinundation

radiativefluxes

HWRF SYSTEM NMM hurricane atmosphere

HWRF/multi-model hi-res ensembles (2012) HWRF/multi-model hi-res ensembles (2012) for adv. storm surge modelfor adv. storm surge model

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2007 TRACK ERROR2007 TRACK ERROR

2007 I2007 INTENSITY ERRORNTENSITY ERROR

2007 Performance2007 Performance

GFSGFS

HWRFHWRF

GFDLGFDL

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HWRF Hurricane Dean August 11–22, 2007

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HWRF 126H FORECAST OF HURRICANE DEAN

CAT5

CAT2

HWRF forecast both landfall intensities

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56%56%

75%75%

60%60%

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2009 Implementation

Couple to HYCOM Upgrade HWRF initialization Implement sea spray (wind driven) Improve diffusion, sfc. drag (storm size) Gravity Wave drag (to be tested fall’08)

Run WAVEWATCH in parallel

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‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12

4-D var Rad vel Reflect + other obs Adv. 4-D var (+ens) +

Advancing HURRICANE WRF System

Atm. Model physics upgrades Atm. Model physics upgrades Sea Spray (ESRL),Sea Spray (ESRL), Enthalpy fluxes, Enthalpy fluxes, LES (URI)LES (URI)

Microphysics, radiation Microphysics, radiation

Incr. Res: 4-5km/64-100LIncr. Res: 4-5km/64-100L

Land Sfc Land Sfc

WavesWaves: surf-zone physics/multi-grid/: surf-zone physics/multi-grid/moving nest/moving nest/currentscurrents

Ocean:Ocean: 4km. - 4km. - continuous upgrades in Ocean Data Assimilation continuous upgrades in Ocean Data Assimilation SSSS

Model upgradesModel upgrades::

HYCOMHYCOM WAVEWATCH WAVEWATCH

Hi-Res Multi-Hi-Res Multi-Model Ensembles Model Ensembles

Data Assimilation for Hurricane CoreData Assimilation for Hurricane Core

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Global Branch Implementations

• CFS upgrade– Move the CFS forecast date from 7-day lag to 1-day lag. Add twice daily

T126L64 60-90 day forecast. Clearly improves monthly forecasts.

• GENS minor implementations– Four independent GENS changes, including new NAEFS products and making

products after CMC implementation.• Adding GFS bias corrected product files at one degree resolution• Combining bias corrected high resolution forecast (for example: GFS) and NAEFS

bias corrected forecast information for best numerical guidance products, 1x1 latitude/longitude resolutions, globally.

• Adding new NAEFS product files from combined NCEP/GEFS (20 members) and CMC/GEFS (20 members, will be implemented by June 2007) for 00UCT, 06UTC, 12UTC and 18UTC cycles, 1*1 latitude/longitude resolution, globally

• Adding new ensemble product files at ~5km resolution for CONUS only, four daily cycles

85

Global Ensemble Forecast System (GENS)

• GENS replaces bred modes with ensemble transform method to create perturbed initial conditions (May 2006)

• Now maintaining an 84 member ensemble with 20 16-day forecasts per 6 hour cycle plus the 4 GFS controls (Mar 2007)

• Downscaled to 5 km using RTMA• North American Ensemble Forecast System

(NAEFS)

86

North American Ensemble Forecast System

• Combines global ensemble forecasts from Canada & USA– CAN 40/day out to 16 days, US – 80/day out to 16 days

• Generates products for– Intermediate users: forecasters at NCEP, WFOs, academia,

media, private sector, …– Specialized users: hydrologic applications in all three countries– End users: forecasts for public distribution

in US, Canada (MSC) and Mexico (NMSM)

• Future activities– Adding products (probabilistic in nature)– Incorporating ensemble data from

other centers (e.g., FNMOC)– Unified evaluation/verification procedures

International project to produce operational multi-center ensemble products

After bias correction

Raw ensemble

Probabilistic skill extended 1-3 days

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NAEFS Products• NAEFS basic products – Gridded data

– Ensemble members – NCEP & MSC

• 50 variables - U,v,t,z,CAPE, precip type, etc.

– Bias corrected ensemble forecasts - 35 variables

– Climate percentile (anomaly) forecasts -19 variables

– Availability through ftp• Ensemble members currently, rest to be added later

• ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gens/prod/

• Derived products – Probabilities, etc– Generation tools: Use recently developed NAWIPS ensemble software

• 11 functionalities - Ensemble mean, spread, probabilities, etc

– Request list: Assembled from NCEP Service Centers and other users

• 600+ graphical products for 7 domains

– Global, NH, NA, CONUS, SA Carib., Africa

– Product availability – in priority order

• Graphics: NCEP Model Web Page, beginning FY07

• NAWIPS grids, beginning FY07

• NDGD grids – planning phase

After bias correction

Bias in raw forecast

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NAEFS Future Plans

• NCEP GEFS configurations– Real-time generation of hind-cast at new GEFS resolution.

• Apply to next computer• 4 cycles per day• 4/28 hind-casts for each cycle since 1979 (in discussion)• Using CFS reanalysis as initial conditions (T382L64 resolution)

– Hydro-meteorological ensemble (River ensemble)– Coupling ocean-land-atmosphere model for GEFS– Variable resolutions

• Downscaling products– Pending on RTMA availability– Extended variables and regions (Hawaii, Puerto Rico and Guam regions )

• Statistical post-processing– Enhance current bias correction method (mini-Bayesian, Krzystofowicz, UVA)– Bias correction for precipitation (jointed with pseudo-precipitation, Schultz ESRL)– Pending on hind-cast information for first and high moments bias correction

• Full Bayesian• Apply to all model forecast variables

• Verifications (unified ensemble probabilistic forecast verification)

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The NCEP coupled Climate Forecast System (CFS)

1. Atmospheric component Global Forecast System 2003 (GFS03) T62 in horizontal; 64 layers in vertical Recent upgrades in model physics

Solar radiation (Hou, 1996) cumulus convection (Hong and Pan, 1998) gravity wave drag (Kim and Arakawa, 1995) cloud water/ice (Zhao and Carr,1997)

2. Oceanic component GFDL MOM3 (Pacanowski and Griffies, 1998) 1/3 in tropics; 1 in extratropics; 40 layers Quasi-global domain (74S to 64N) Free surface

3. Coupled model Once-a-day coupling Sea ice extent taken as observed climatology

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GSI (Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation)

• Concentrates analysis development on a single unified analysis system

• GSI is an evolutionary combination of global (SSI) and regional 3DVAR analysis systems

• Included in NAM in June 2006• Will add temporal components to GSI

that will approach 4DVAR capability but at ~3DVAR expense.

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GSI Analysis Differences Compared to SSI

• Grid point definition of background error– Use of recursive filters– More appropriate background errors in the tropics

• Improved code design• Inclusion of improved balance constraints• Modified to use hybrid coordinates• Many future options included but not

exercised in this version

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6 hr Forecast Error Reduced Using GSI – June 2006

Operations GSI Parallel

SSI – large 6 h fcst error butSmaller error beyond 48 h

GSI – well balanced incrementFields lead to small 6 h error

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Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation

• GSI Documentation• Wu et al. (MWR, 2002) provide an overview of

the theory and development of the original GSI system.  Additional GSI related literature and presentations are found in the documents folder.

 • Online Training• 1st GSI User Orientation (4-5 January 2005)