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Negotiating uncertainties Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties in coastal zones with scarce freshwater resources

Negotiating uncertainties

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Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties in coastal zones with scarce freshwater resources . Negotiating uncertainties. Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise. Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino. Contents. Objective PhD research Theories Uncertainty - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Negotiating uncertainties

Negotiating uncertainties

Jeroen Veraart, Wim Cofino

Test case: Expert judgments on Sealevel rise

Defining climate proofing and assessing associated uncertainties in coastal zones

with scarce freshwater resources

Page 2: Negotiating uncertainties

Contents

Objective PhD research Theories Uncertainty Set up SLR Experiment Results SLR Experiment Further steps… Discussion

Page 3: Negotiating uncertainties

Objective PhD-research To map levels of (dis)agreement of

(un)certainties regarding the freshwater availability for land use by Qualitatively (analysis of cultural concepts), and Quantitatively, with statistical analysis

Practical guidelines for negotiating (un)certainties in regional science-policy interfaces related to climate proofing Southwest Delta of the Netherlands To be identified

Page 4: Negotiating uncertainties

Uncertainty philosophies in climate science

ImpreciseInformation

PreciseInformation

Objective perspective Subjective perspectiveEarthsystem

Humandimension

causality

choice

observations

models

Scenario’s

Swart e.a., 2008

Likelihood scaleConfidence scaleLevel of agreement & evidenceExplanatory factors

Page 5: Negotiating uncertainties

Set up Sea Level Rise Experiment (questionaire) What will be the sea level rise in 2030/2100/2200? What is the body length of Eddy Moors? (cm) What is the average body length of the ESS group? What is your own body length? (cm)

Average (cm) Minimum (cm) Maximum (cm) Chance that you are wrong (%) Explain your (expert) judgment

Page 6: Negotiating uncertainties

Sea level rise 2030ID Name Conf avg 2030 min 2030 max 2030 Expect.

valueStd

1 Erik van Slobbe 60% 20 5 60 28.3 11.6

2 Aad Sedee 80% 10 5 20 11.7 3.1

3 Eddy Moors 80% 20 10 40 23.3 6.2

4 Arnold van Vliet 50% 10 5 15 10.0 2.0

5 Hasse Goosen 75% 15 10 20 15.0 2.0

6 Herbert ter Maat 75% 30 20 50 33.3 6.2

7 Rob Swart 90% 10 4 15 9.7 2.2

8 Fokke 40% 10 2 20 10.7 3.7

9 Catharien 30% 50 20 70 46.7 10.3

10 Judith 40% 15 10 30 18.3 4.2

11 Rik Leemans 100% 45 12 600 219.0 134.9

12 Pavel 50% 10 5 15 10.0 2.0

13 Saskia - 15 1 30 15.3 5.9

Page 7: Negotiating uncertainties

Sealevel rise experiment: expert judgment

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93 97Sea level rise 2030(cm)

Prob

abili

ty d

ensi

ty

ErikAadEddyArnold

Hasse

HerbertRobCatharien

JudithFokke

Rik

Pavel

Saskia

Page 8: Negotiating uncertainties

Summed asym. PDF’s for 2030 (2 approaches)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Summed asym.triangular probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

histModelModel-first mode

Triangulars

Min. Entropy approachPmf1 = 13.7 cm, 51.5%Pmf2 = 29.4 cm, 23.6%Pmf3 = 35 cm, 11.8%Rik = 206, 6.7%

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5Summed probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

histKDEModelModel-first mode

Normal Distr. per respondent

Min. Entropy approachPmf1 = 13.7 cm, 71%Pmf2 = 42 cm, 17%Pmf3 = 26 cm, 10%no Rik

Arithmic mean = 20 cm ± 13 cm

Page 9: Negotiating uncertainties

Overlap matrix sealevel rise 2030 Graphical representation of overlap matrix

2

4

7

8

12

5

10

13

1

3

6

11

9

2 4 7 8 12 5 10 13 1 3 6 11 9

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.99 Catharien

11 Rik Leemans

6 Herbert ter Maat

3 Eddy Moors

1 Erik van Slobbe

13 Saskia Werners

10 Judith Klostermann

5 Hasse Goosen

12 Pavel Kabat

8 Fokke de Jong7 Rob Swart

4 Arnold van Vliet

2 Aad Sedee

Aad

Arn

old

Rob

Fokk

e

Pav

el

Has

se

Judi

th

Sas

kia

Erik

Edd

y

Her

bert

Rik

Cat

harie

n

Page 10: Negotiating uncertainties

Comparison of all expert judgmentsExpert judgment

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Estimation 2030 Estimation 2100 Estimation 2200 Eddy ESS-CC

cm

Arith mean

Min entropy

Max entropy

Delta Commissie

KNMI 06

max

min

reality

Page 11: Negotiating uncertainties

Comparison body lengths estimations

0 50 100 150 200 2500

1

2

3

4

5

6Summed asym.triangular probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

histModelModel-first mode

Rik, 133cm, 6% 183cm, 25%

183cm, 60%

186cmEddy Judgment

130 140 150 160 170 180 190 200 2100

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4Summed asym.triangular probability density functions

PMF1

PMF2

PMF3

histModelModel-first mode

ESS-CC Judgment

Minent

Minent

176cm, 56%177cm, 22%177cm, 9%

180cm

Eddies body length is easier to estimate than group length

Page 12: Negotiating uncertainties

Further steps: What is the (average) annual minimum amount of

rainfall needed (m3 m-2 yr -1) to maintain freshwater supply for sector A,B in region Y under climate change?

Compare (expert) judgment regarding freshwater supply from natural resources in region Y under climate change for different stakeholder/expert groups

Comparison of regions Method is also applicable to: (beyond scope PhD)

map (un(certainties) in the process of valuation of ecosystem services

Other ecosystem services

Page 13: Negotiating uncertainties

Thank youJeroen Veraart