New and Updated Operational Tropical Cyclone Wind Products

John A. Knaff – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, COAlison Krautkramer – NCEP/TPC - NHC, Miami, FL

Mark DeMaria – NESDIS/StAR - RAMMB, Fort Collins, CO Andrea Schumacher – CIRA/CSU, Fort Collins, CO

Outline• Planned updates to the operational CIRA/NESDIS – NCEP

AMSU tropical cyclone intensity and structure algorithm• Current algorithm and uses• Planned updates• Possible new use• Schedule

• Plans for a new operational Multiplatform Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Analysis (MTC-SWA) product • Description of the new product• 2007 verification (H*Wind, best track wind radii)• Planned products• Schedule

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Current Product

• Uses the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) from NOAA – 15, -16, -18– Fix or Vmax, MSLP, & wind radii estimates– Radial vs. Height cross-sections of pressures,

balance winds & temperatures on height surfaces– Horizontal heights, temperatures, & winds on

standard pressure surfaces– Statistics related to the fix estimate

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Some Current Uses

• Operational intensity and structure guidance• Phase space diagrams (Bob Hart, FSU)• Near surface winds (MTC-SWA, plans for

H*wind)• Examining extratropical transition (Pat Harr)

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Planned Updates and Demonstrations

Additional AMSU data• NASA Aqua • European Met-Op

New Utilizations• MTC-SWA, H*Wind• Vertical Wind Shear

estimates• Depth of the steering

level

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Example of the 2-d Winds

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Estimates of Vertical Wind Shear

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2004-2007 North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones

• NCEP 6o average

Versus

• AMSU 6o average

Schedule (Time Table)

• May 2008 – Project starts• Requested through TPC Spring 2008 - NCO to develop BUFR

readers (Aqua and Met Op)• Received - Get statistical retrieval coefficients from NESDIS• Summer 2008 - Coordinate with TPC • Summer 2008 - Modify Code to accept Aqua and Met Op data• Fall/Winter 2008 – testing with TPC help• Spring 2009 - Transition to operations at NCO

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MTC-SWA Description• Optimally combines and quality controls satellite-based, near

surface wind observations and proxy winds– AMSU 2-d 850 or 700 hPa winds (Bessho et al 2006)– Cloud Drift/Water Vapor/ IR winds (e.g., Nieman et al., 1997)– Scatterometery (QuikSCAT, A-SCAT)– GOES IR flight-level proxy (Mueller et al 2006 with a few

modifications)• Creates a low-level wind field analysis (Variational approach,

weighted)• Applies a simple surface reductions over ocean & land which are

loosely based on Franklin et al (2003) & Boose et al (2001)

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Input: Hurricane

DEAN 200720 August

06 UTC

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Analysis: Hurricane Dean 200720 August

06 UTC

Verification/Comparison vs. H*Wind

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Verification/Comparison vs. NHC wind radii

Wind Radii Errors Detection of Wind Radii

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*Climatology from Knaff et al. (2007)107,66,42 nmi for R34,50 & 64

HKD = (Hit Rate) – (False Alarm Rate)

Planned Products

• ATCF (JTWC & NHC) – Analysis Fix (PR; Vmax, RMW, R34, R50, R64, MSLP)

• CIRA/RAMMB Tropical Cyclone Web Site– Analysis Plots– Dynamic MSLP estimation– Flight-level kinetic energy estimation matching

Maclay et al. (2008) methodology.

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Examples

Dynamical MSLP estimation Kinetic Energy (0-200km)

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Flight-level KE Felix (2007)

Schedule for MTC-SWA

• May 2008 – Project Starts• Summer 2008 – Run Experimental Product at CIRA &

Establish data flow at NESDIS• Winter 2008 - Install Software at NESDIS, Verify

output , modify algorithm as necessary• Spring 2009 - Begin running the product at NESDIS• Winter 2009 – Develop the NESDIS/SSD Web Page,

dissemination to ATCF from NESDIS• Spring 2010 – Finish operational transition

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QUESTIONS?

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