New Challenges in Agricultural Statistics

Haluk KasnakogluStatistics Division, FAO

MEXSAI, Third International Conference on Agricultural Statistics2-4 November, 2004

Cancun, Mexico

Outline Theme of MEXSAI“From Agricultural to Rural Development Indicators” New Issues and Challenges FAO Activities

Is There a Need to Review the Domain of Agricultural Statistics?

Why do we ask? Agriculture is loosing importance so we should shift to

other domains? We have exhausted agriculture and have time remaining

to do other things? We could not manage agriculture and try our luck in other

domains? No demand for current domains? The problems and issues to be addressed are changing?

Is Agriculture Getting Less Important?

Share in Population Share in Labour Force Share in Value of Output Share in International Trade Share in Public Expenditures Share in Household Expenditures

Share of Agriculture in Population

42 % of the world population in 2004

51% of the world population in 1980

More than 40% of the total population in one-third of the countries.

Between 15-40% of the total population in one-third of the countries

Less than 15% in the remaining one-third of the countries

0-1027%

11-1919%21-40

22%

41-6010%

61-8016%

80+6%

Share of Agriculture in Output Value

Agriculture accounted for 4 % of the world’s total GDP in 2002

The share of agriculture in total world GDP in 1980 was 5%

In nearly 40% of the countries the share of agriculture in GDP is more than 20%.

In 60% of the countries the share of agricultural GDP is more than 10%

In nearly quarter of the countries the share of agricultural GDP is less than 5%

0-423%

5-917%

10-1923%

20-3925%

40+12%

Share of Agriculture in Trade (X) Share of primary (and some first

level processed) agricultural products in value of world trade in 2002 was 7% as compared to 12% in the early 80’s.

In more than one-third of the countries, the share agricultural exports in total exports is more than 20%.

In nearly one-quarter of the countries on the other hand the share of agriculture in exports is less than 4%.

0-3.924%

4-9.923%10-19.9

19%

20-39.919%

40+15%

Share of Agriculture in Trade (M) Share of agricultural imports in

total import value is more than 20% in more than 20% of the countries

Agriculture constitutes more than 10% of the import bill in nearly 70% of the countries

The share of agriculture in import bill and export earnings substantially increase when we account for processed agricultural products and agricultural inputs.

4-9.930%

10-19.946%

20-39.919%

40+2%

0-3.93%

Share in Public and Private Expenditures Share of Support to Agriculture in GDP’s

About 1.5% in OECD countries About 5-10% in many developing countries

Share of Food in Household Budgets About 10-20% in developed countries About 20-40% in fast developing countries Over 50% in least developed countries Share of all agriculture related items (clothing,

wood) is higher

In summary, Agriculture preserves its importance as an economic activity

for populations in most countries The monetary value of agriculture’s output is low as before. The importance of agricultural trade in primary products is

diminishing but that of processed agricultural commodities is increasing.

Public expenditures in agriculture are in a downward trend Share in household expenditures of food and agricultural

commodities diminishes in higher income countries. The range for importance of agriculture is large And…

Few Big Players! 5 countries account for

50% of world’s GDP 40% of world’s agricultural GDP 65% of world’s agricultural population 50% of world’s food production (calories) 50% of word’s food consumption (calories) 40% of world’s agricultural exports 40% of world agricultural imports

China, USA, India, Brazil, France, Germany are among the key players.

Nothing Else Left to Do in Agriculture? For traditional domains like production and yields

on the supply side and land, labor, fertilizers and tractors on the input side may be yes.

A lot more to do in other areas such as prices, margins, costs, incomes to name a few.

Agricultural economists are way ahead in terms of research agenda and long started working with simulated data.

Agricultural statisticians are way behind busy with fine tuning of sample frames and lost in micro issues.

Less Demand for Agricultural Statistics?

Unfortunately Yes, because What is produced is not what is demanded Timeleness The Golden Rule Not rich in data points to feed new advances in

statistics and econometrics Agricultural policy makers are not interested in

agricultural statistics.

So…. There is a lot to do in the area of agricultural

statistics both at the national and international levels. Nevertheless there is a need for re-aligning

agricultural statistics to new problems and user requirements.

Agricultural and rural statistics are not alternatives but could complement each other.

There is a need for statisticians focusing on both but not in the expense of the other.

Routes for Expansion Agriculture to Rural

Why Rural? Because of Agriculture Production? Supply Oriented What is Rural

Resources to Production Economic Accounts Input-Output and SAM

Producer to Consumer Consumer is the other actor Consumers are in the rural as well as urban areas

Agriculture to Agro-Industry This is where the value added occurs Connection between production and consumption

Agriculture to Related Non-Agriculture Forward and Backward Linkages Integrating Agriculture to Rest of Economy

Some more thoughts... One of the problems with agricultural statistics has been the concentration

on the supply side and the producer and neglect of the demand side and the consumer.

The shift in emphasis from agriculture to rural statistics as opposed to the other alternative routes could be a continuation of this old lasting problem.

One of the problems with agricultural policies and contributing to their inefficiencies have been the confusion of targets between agriculture and rural development.

Neither all rural problems can expected to be solved through agricultural policy nor would agricultural policy be the most efficient way to tackle all rural development issues.

Shifting the focus by agricultural statisticians to rural statistics can also contribute to this confusion and inefficiency in both agricultural and rural development policies.

Wider Scope of Agricultural Statistics Agriculture is covered when the supply, demand and the market issues are addressed

simultaneously Agriculture is integrated to the rest of the economy and cannot be studied in isolation Nations are integrated to the rest of the world and cannot be studied in isolation

Micro-Data and Confidentiality Everybody wants micro-data but nobody wants to share theirs with others

Quality of Statistics Quality of statistics depends on the quality at the source, processing and the user levels.

Meta Data With internet there is an inflation of information and statistics from different sources

with different definitions and quality and many times not differentiable due to limited meta data.

Common Definitions and Classifications A must for integration of information at all levels

New Issues and Challenges

What FAO is doing? Reviewing Conceptual Framework Integration to the International Statistical

System Modernization of FAOSTAT New Product “CountryStat” New Approach to Agricultural Censuses Multi-Layered Quality Assessment and

Monitoring

FAOSTAT Conceptual Framework

FAOSTAT2 Conceptual Framework

PRODUCTSNET INPUT

TRADE

TOTAL INPUT

USE

INP

UT

S

INPUT-OUTPUT

MATRIX

PRODUCTION

-(NET PRODUCT TRADE)

-(SEED+FEED+WASTE)

-(STOCK CHANGE)

= CONSUMPTION

X NUTRIENT CONVERSION COEFFICIENTS

= Nutrient Consumption

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N T

O F

OO

D

M X-

Total NutrientConsumptionTotal NutrientConsumption

F+ =

TOTAL INPUT

AVAILABLE

TOTALUNUSED

INPUT

U S+ =

FoodDistribution

Pop. NutritionRequirement

Undernourished

OUTPUT PRICESOUTPUT PRICES

CO

ST

OF

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N

CO

ST

OF

PR

OD

UC

TIO

N

INP

UT

PR

ICE

SIN

PU

T P

RIC

ES

VALUE OF PRODUCTIONVALUE OF PRODUCTION

TRADE PRICESTRADE PRICES

AGRO-ENVIRONMENTAL

ACCOUNTS

FOOD BALANCE

ACCOUNTS

ECONOMIC ACCOUNTS FOR AGRICULTURE

Human Needs

TRADEACCOUNTS

Available

Partially Available

Planned

Long-Run

Feed/Seed/Land/Fertilizer

Labor/Water

Chemicals/Machinery

Integration to International Statistical System

Review of Agriculture Related Classifications HS, CPC, ISIC Others (Occupation, Resources, Country, etc)

Collaboration in Compilation and Processing Trade – UNSD, OECD, FAO Labour –ILO

Data/Knowledge Exchange

New FAOSTAT - January 2006

FAOSTATCORE

MODULE

PRODUCTION MODULEFIGIS

TRADE MODULE

PRICE MODULE

RESOURCE MODULE

EXTERNAL MODULE

SOCIAL MODULE

CountrySTAT

METADATA

COUNTRY-COMMODITY CODESEtc.

NUTRITION MODULEOTHER MODULES

An Example FAOSTAT Module

FAOSTAT2 Integrated Price Framework

OU

TP

UT

SIN

PU

TS

PR

OD

UC

ER

PR

ICE

WH

OL

ES

AL

E P

RIC

E

SU

PP

OR

T P

RIC

E

RE

TA

IL P

RIC

E

EX

PO

RT

PR

ICE

IMP

OR

T P

RIC

E

WO

RL

D P

RIC

E

UNIT PRICES (National Currency)O

TH

ER

PR

ICE

SINDEX NUMBERS

Base =100

Producer Price Index

WholesalePrice Index

Consumer Price Index

Food Price Index

Export Price Index

Import Price Index

Market Exchange Rate

Official Exchange Rate

AGREGATE INDEXES OF PRICES PAID AND RECIVED AND EXCHANGE RATES

CountryStat – 9 Pilots in 2005

CountrySTATCORE

MODULE

PRODUCTION MODULEPOLICY MODULE

TRADE MODULE

PRICE MODULE

RESOURCE MODULE

INTERNATIONAL MODULE

SOCIAL MODULE

FAOSTAT

METADATA

COUNTRY-COMMODITY CODESEtc.

MACRO INDICATORSOTHER MODULES

New Agricultural Census Framework

CENSUSREQUIRED

CORE

POPULATION CENSUS

AGRICULTURAL CENSUS FRAMEWORK

CENSUS OPTIONAL CORE

IN-DEPTH SURVEYS

Crops

Livestock

Land use

Land tenure

Food security

Gender

Farm labour

Time use

New Census from Country Perspective A COUNTRY’S AGRI. CENSUS PROGRAMME

Crops

Livestock

Land use

Land tenure

Food security

Gender

Farm labour

Time use

CORE AGRICULTURAL CENSUS (black hatch)

SUPPLEMENTARY SURVEY(S) AS PART OF CENSUS (blue hatch)

LATER IN-DEPTH SUPPLEMENTARY SURVEY(S) (yellow hatch)

FAO Statistical Data Quality Framework

Countrystatistics

office

FAOStatisticsDivision

q1 q2

Source User

Δq1 Δq2

Stress FactorsPopulationGeographical sizeEducationIncomeEnvironment

Stress FactorsMember countriesBudgetOrg. SizeDomainsData quality at q2

Stress FactorsAvailability national registers for: Population Administrative recordsResourcesData quality at q1

Core Data Quality Indicators

Point/Domain Specific Data Quality Indicators

q3

FAO Statistical Data Quality Framework

Thank you......I invite you to visit the

FAO Statistics DivisionWeb Pagewww.fao.org/es/ess/

for our work on these new initiatives and the FAOSTAT Web Page

www.fao.org/faostat/to follow the progress in FAOSTAT and

CountryStat.