North Carolina Agriculture Blake Brown, PhD Extension Economist & Hugh C. Kiger Professor Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics North Carolina

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  • North Carolina AgricultureBlake Brown, PhDExtension Economist & Hugh C. Kiger ProfessorDepartment of Agricultural and Resource EconomicsNorth Carolina State University

  • Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture OutlookImmigration reform (by executive order or otherwise)Regulation: FDA, EPA.Rising interest ratesLower energy prices Strengthening dollarWeak economic recovery in EuropeKnow your food

  • Farms with direct sales to consumers were 6.9 percent of the nations 2.1 million farms in 2012, but those sales accounted for only 0.3 percent of total agriculture sales.Farmers Marketing USDA 2012 Census of AgricultureUSDA estimates that farm-level value of local food sales totaled about $4.8 billion in 2008, Congressional Research ServiceValue of NC Ag Direct Sales: $29.1 million in 2007 Census

  • What about growth in global demand for food?

  • Current UN projections indicate that world population could increase by 2.25 billion people from todays levels, reaching 9.15 billion by 2050. At the global level, agricultural production and consumption in 2050 are projected to be 60 percent higher than in 2005/07. FAOQuestion your Assumptions about Global Growth in demand says Michael Swanson, Wells Fargo Ag Economist & Senior VPGNP growth drives demand not population growthChina GNP growth will be primary driverBrazil has 470 million acres in untapped potentialAfrica has 990 million acres in untapped potential.but is plagued by Political Instability and poor or no infrastructure

  • Factors Impacting the U.S. Agriculture OutlookChinaSlowing economic growth in ChinaBut increasing demand for meatGrowing world population.Growing world GNP.Competition from BrazilCompetition from other regions???Political conflict & Infrastructure

  • Urban Growth and NC Agriculture

  • Composition of NC Agriculture

  • Eggs 3.4%Cattle 2.6%

  • Chart1

    2.84

    0.39

    0.98

    2.55

    Column1

    NC Hogs and Poultry$ billion 2012 Cash Receipts

    Sheet1

    Column1Series 2Series 3

    Broilers2.842.42

    Eggs0.394.42

    Turkeys0.981.83

    Hogs2.552.85

    To resize chart data range, drag lower right corner of range.

  • Specialty Crops2012 Cash Receipts$ millionTobacco$754Sweet Potatoes$198Peanuts$151Christmas Trees$75Blueberries$71Squash$37Potatoes$36Watermelons$35Strawberries$29Cucumbers$29

  • Chart1

    191.4534122855165.455308666258.6210773088222.121348113167.6222698466444.1131898445426.0123470393

    216.1244636636199.53162296856.745777796249.6035104107216.327684668459.2490238156443.9067443376

    220.4618503874155.864671677454.0921580489205.405617025143.557207492418.1046516107383.8964826195

    228.4575784461163.953775025649.5806163455304.6331484441175.8173147748387.5671113941392.649464268

    323.1240613021192.357106215851.6780911584319.3125016852360.8599306464410.5693763816388.6719774348

    369.9874383243249.891058981656.6247484156279.8206313942202.9491009479372.7543146097410.2558746598

    388.2001205825222.48034315969.4862086219339.3005787199225.2673190218489.7968943411460.6028210655

    408.1513257408347.444290990567.9297092414434.7687153639225.5617409089551.6717206903459.4495490227

    648.4518045113420.567416715989.7911810699746.9163812431197.297374745586.0810634885539.7593265118

    543.9006480134401.871148023106.0097147869518.255150338212.3847690312589.0934109828558.1193756057

    595.2264395171377.2015495171101.3608460695628.2548766634306.2783480077552.3243800854613.4685705216

    707.3851093676444.8223952642135.9486846503740.3365872869487.0111535503459.8437626987671.2442996752

    727.7137473752524.6024415889135.1185184417936.6832169378349.0464530871557.6357856607706.7263483214

    Pork

    Chicken

    Vegetables

    Grains& Soybeans

    Cotton

    Tobacco

    Other

    millions

    NC Agricultural Exports

    Sheet1

    Beef and vealPorkHides and skinsDairy productsChicken meatVegetables, freshVegetables, processedFruits, freshFruits, processedTree nutsWheatRiceCornGrain productsFeeds and fodderSoybeansSoybean mealVegetable oilsSugar and productsCottonTobacco, unmanufacturedPlanting seedsOther products 2/

    200020.5191.58.98.3165.523.235.415.610.31.338.70.034.418.613.273.918.025.30.0167.6444.10.6360.5

    200119.1216.111.08.6199.522.634.115.19.51.533.10.044.620.817.684.023.326.30.0216.3459.20.6378.5

    200218.8220.510.37.1155.922.431.718.211.41.034.20.035.118.412.566.415.723.10.0143.6418.10.6316.4

    200318.7228.58.66.7164.021.528.118.511.31.328.90.044.522.716.7136.121.833.90.0175.8387.61.2326.2

    20044.4323.19.59.1192.422.129.618.311.30.155.00.059.127.317.8106.620.832.70.0360.9410.61.2334.7

    20057.0370.09.010.0249.924.532.120.811.91.348.10.045.127.618.791.021.627.70.0202.9372.81.2349.1

    20069.3388.29.310.9222.530.039.527.517.40.556.40.068.731.721.8104.525.131.10.0225.3489.80.9384.8

    200711.3408.29.415.9347.428.639.318.412.20.279.10.0100.235.627.6128.227.836.10.0225.6551.71.0391.1

    200813.0648.58.420.4420.634.355.530.119.70.8211.80.0103.943.229.0239.749.769.70.0197.3586.11.1446.2

    200915.0543.97.112.2401.940.665.433.821.60.073.40.063.934.629.4223.447.646.00.0212.4589.11.1467.2

    201018.9595.210.619.5377.239.661.740.425.10.044.30.073.132.637.6312.959.168.60.0306.3552.31.2497.8

    201124.0707.411.824.9444.851.984.145.028.70.0205.90.092.945.238.5247.645.364.80.0487.0459.81.3535.6

    201227.1727.713.626.5524.647.088.245.926.80.0150.40.081.957.253.5426.485.082.20.0349.0557.61.3565.5

    PorkChickenVegetablesGrains& SoybeansCottonTobaccoOther

    2000191.5165.558.6222.1167.6444.1426.0

    2001216.1199.556.7249.6216.3459.2443.9

    2002220.5155.954.1205.4143.6418.1383.9

    2003228.5164.049.6304.6175.8387.6392.6

    2004323.1192.451.7319.3360.9410.6388.7

    2005370.0249.956.6279.8202.9372.8410.3

    2006388.2222.569.5339.3225.3489.8460.6

    2007408.2347.467.9434.8225.6551.7459.4

    2008648.5420.689.8746.9197.3586.1539.8

    2009543.9401.9106.0518.3212.4589.1558.1

    2010595.2377.2101.4628.3306.3552.3613.5

    2011707.4444.8135.9740.3487.0459.8671.2

    2012727.7524.6135.1936.7349.0557.6706.7

    Sheet1

    Pork

    Chicken

    Vegetables

    Grains& Soybeans

    Cotton

    Tobacco

    Other

    millions

    NC Agricultural Exports

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • NC Agricultures Place in US Agriculture

  • Chart1

    42627472000

    30821532000

    25375581000

    23068756000

    21280184000

    18460564000

    17187052000

    12588142000

    11744476000

    11210818000

    Market Value of Agricultural Products Sold

    mkt value of ag products sold

    STFIPSGEO2012200720021997Not adjusted for coverage 1997Not adjusted for coverage 1992Not adjusted for coverage 1987Not adjusted for coverage 1982ITEM

    99United States394644481297220491200646355201379812196864649162608334136048516131900223Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    6California$42,627,47233885064257371732328011023032259170519121392223412491442Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)California$42,627,472,000

    19Iowa$30,821,532204180961227363412162165119478941009978689267999828932Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Iowa$30,821,532,000

    48Texas$25,375,5812100107414134744140160171376652712004385105489078936363Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Texas$25,375,581,000

    31Nebraska$23,068,75615506035970365799372489831519820969166671326625742Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Nebraska$23,068,756,000

    27Minnesota$21,280,18413180466857562784047228290264647700456763765939629Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Minnesota$21,280,184,000

    20Kansas$18,460,56414413182874624493128659207130831596564766696190861Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Kansas$18,460,564,000

    17Illinois$17,187,05213329107767623986347308556486733686463768017313529Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Illinois$17,187,052,000

    37North Carolina$12,588,14210313628696168678323627676523483421835414193500750Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)North Carolina$12,588,142,000

    55Wisconsin$11,744,4768967358562327557941005579861525967049098694854582Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Wisconsin$11,744,476,000

    18Indiana$11,210,8188271291478315853231165229977463309040676844226930Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)Indiana$11,210,818,000

    38North Dakota109506806084218323336629080492869322274575221881582294326Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    46South Dakota101702276570450383462536641293569951324355427194982478111Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    39Ohio100640857070212426354947445214684277391404034340643387461Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    5Arkansas97757587508806495039756131565479692415950533202582826497Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    13Georgia92551257112866491175251826764992918352121728145922767679Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    29Missouri91648867512926498325554660095367813430314836449883606856Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    53Washington91207496792856533074049478864767727382122229196342831159Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    26Michigan86780505753219377243536946703567825302854725450782588317Market value of agricultural products sold (see text) ($1,000)

    16Idaho78014465688765390826233882963345864296421622694042231605Market value of agricultural products sold (se