Global Challenges towards a Low Carbon Society (LCS)

through Sustainable Development (SD)Introduction

Nov. 8, 2006UNFCCC COP12/MOP2

UNON, Nairobi

Shuzo NishiokaNational Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan

Surface Air Temperature Change (1900=0 oC)CCSR/NIES/FRCGC, Japan

“ “Low-carbon societies are necessary to Low-carbon societies are necessary to avoid dangerous climate change.”avoid dangerous climate change.”

Relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, atmospheric GHG concentration, and increase in global mean temperature.

(Calculated by AIM/Impact[policy] Model)

BaU GHG-475ppm GHG-500ppm GHG-550ppm GHG-650ppm

0

5

10

15

20

25

19

90

200

0

20

10

202

0

203

0

20

40

205

0

20

60

20

70

208

0

20

90

2100

年

温室

効果

ガス

排出

量 (

二酸

化炭

素換

算：G

tC/ 年

)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1990

200

0

20

1020

20

2030

20

40

2050

20

60

2070

2080

209

02

100

21

1021

20

213

0

2140

215

0

年

気温

上昇

(19

90年

=0.

6 ℃)

Temperature raise(global average)

Global GHG emissions

GHG475ppm

GHG: Greenhouse gases50% reduction

650550500

BaU

GHG475ppm

Glo

bal

mea

n t

emp

erat

ure

incr

ease

(oC

ab

ove

th

e p

re-i

nd

ust

rial

leve

l)

Year Year

GH

G e

mis

sio

ns

(Gt-

Ceq

)

475

650550500

BaU

Low Carbon Japan:Low Carbon Japan: 　　 20502050NIES NIES ｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈ　ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ　（２００４－ｒｅｓｅｒａｃｈ　ｐｒｏｊｅｃｔ　（２００４－２００８） ２００８） 60 researchers60 researchers 　　 Global Environmental Research ProgrammeGlobal Environmental Research Programme 　　

Deep cut of GHG into 20-40% by 2050What will be the image of the LC society?How to attain the goal?How to change energy demand /supply structure?

脱温暖化2050

http://2050.nies.go.jp

US

Canada

UK

France

China

India

World

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

19

70

19

80

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

20

20

30

20

40

20

50

CO

2 p

er c

apit

a em

issi

on

s (t

-C/c

ap)

Germany

METI, Japan2030 scenario

Current per capita CO2 emissions and Target

Target for Low Carbon SocietyIB1

IA2

Japan 2050 scenario

US: delay for tech development, global warming business

EU: Initiatives toward LCSJapan: Need long-term vision

Developing countries: earlierguidance toward LCS is key

$200/t-C scenario

Shuzo Nishioka, Junichi Fujino; NIES COP11 and COP/MOP1 side eventGlobal Challenges Toward Low-Carbon Economy (LCE), Dec.3, 2005

54 participants from 19 countries and 6 international organizations;Asia: Japan, China, India, Thailand, Taiwan (China)Africa: South Africa, NigeriaEurope: UK, France, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Netherlands, RussiaLatin America: Brazil, Mexico, ChileNorth America: US, Canada

The first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research ProjectThe first workshop on Japan–UK Joint Research Project““Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)Developing visions for a Low Carbon Society (LCS)

through sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyothrough sustainable development” on June 2006, Tokyo

A second workshop will be held in UK, June 2007

– take actions that are compatible with the principles of sustainable development, ensuring that the development needs of all groups within society are met;

– make an equitable contribution towards the global effort to stabilise atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases at a level that will avoid dangerous climate change through deep cuts in global emissions;

– demonstrate high levels of energy efficiency, use of low-carbon

– energy sources and production technologies, and sustainable land use practices;

– adopt patterns of consumption and behaviour that are consistent with low levels of GHG emissions.

Toward a Low-Carbon Society, we need to

Programme: Aligning Climate Change and Sustainable Development Policies

PR. Shukla (Indian Institute of Management, India)

Modeling LCS to Identify Trend-Breaking Options

Junichi Fujino (NIES, Japan)

National and Global Cooperation to Achieve LCS through SD

David Warrilow (Defra, UK)

Panel discussion :SD-PAMs

Stanford Mwakasonda (University of Cape Town, South Africa)Renewable Energy

Martin Weiss (Federal Environmental Agency, Germany)

Comment

Robert Dixon (IEA) Jonathan Pershing (WRI)Open Discussion

Technology RD&D

Jiang Kejun (Energy Research Institute, China)