1

Nuclear Energy Prospects after

Fukushima: The Asian Experience

Seoul, 28 August 2012 Dr. Hooman Peimani

Principal Fellow & Head

Energy Security Division

Energy Studies Institute Contributed by: SU, Liying (ESI Energy Analyst)

Opinions expressed in this presentation are those of its presenter only. They do not reflect the opinions of the

Energy Studies Institute.

I. Introduction

A. Asia’s energy requirements and projections for 2035

Energy Mix in Asia Oceania (1990-2035)

Note: The statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Asia Oceania and Non-OECD Asia.

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 570-590.

2

Energy Demand (Mtoe)

Shares (%)

1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2009 2035

Coal 835 2165 2729 2912 2969 3030 3101 47% 41%

Oil 646 1132 1320 1393 1485 1591 1687 25% 22%

Gas 137 437 605 735 829 940 1063 10% 14%

Nuclear 76 146 212 313 396 457 522 3% 7%

Hydro 35 84 120 147 174 191 201 2% 3%

Biomass

and waste 481 565 594 627 662 703 749 12% 10%

Other

renewables 11 44 88 126 173 229 300 1% 4%

Total 2221 4573 5668 6253 6688 7141 7623 100% 100%

I. Introduction

B. Domination of the Asian energy mix by fossil energy to

continue

C. Small share of non-fossil energy (renewables and nuclear)

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 570-590.

3

II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

A. Five decades of nuclear energy starting in Japan

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Japan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf79.html

This Table continues over the next two pages

4

Reactor Type Net capacity Utility Commercial

Operation

Fukushima I-5 BWR 760 MWe TEPCO April 1978

Fukushima I-6 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO October 1979

Fukushima II-1 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO April 1982

Fukushima II-2 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO February 1984

Fukushima II-3 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO June 1985

Fukushima II-4 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1987

Genkai-1 PWR 529 MWe Kyushu October 1975

Genkai-2 PWR 529 MWe Kyushu March 1981

Genkai-3 PWR 1127 MWe Kyushu March 1994

Genkai-4 PWR 1127 MWe Kyushu July 1997

Hamaoka-3 BWR 1056 MWe Chubu August 1987

Hamaoka-4 BWR 1092 MWe Chubu September 1993

Hamaoka-5 ABWR 1325 MWe Chubu January 2005

Higashidori-1

Tohoku BWR 1067 MWe Tohoku December 2005

Ikata-1 PWR 538 MWe Shikoku September 1977

Ikata-2 PWR 538 MWe Shikoku March 1982

Ikata-3 PWR 846 MWe Shikoku December 1994

II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

5

Reactor Type Net Capacity Utility Commercial

Operation

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-1 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO September 1985

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-2 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO September 1990

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-3 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1993

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-4 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO August 1994

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-5 BWR 1067 MWe TEPCO April 1990

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-6 ABWR 1315 MWe TEPCO November 1996

Kashiwazaki-Kariwa-7 ABWR 1315 MWe TEPCO July 1997

Mihama-1 PWR 320 MWe Kansai November 1970

Mihama-2 PWR 470 MWe Kansai July 1972

Mihama-3 PWR 780 MWe Kansai December 1976

Ohi-1 PWR 1120 MWe Kansai March 1979

Ohi-2 PWR 1120 MWe Kansai December 1979

Ohi-3 PWR 1127 MWe Kansai December 1991

Ohi-4 PWR 1127 MWe Kansai February 1993

Onagawa-1 BWR 498 MWe Tohoku June 1984

Onagawa-2 BWR 796 MWe Tohoku July 1995

Onagawa-3 BWR 796 MWe Tohoku January 2002

II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

Reactor Type Net Capacity Utility Commercial

Operation

Sendai-1 PWR 846 MWe Kyushu July 1984

Sendai-2 PWR 846 MWe Kyushu November 1985

Shika-1 BWR 505 MWe Hokuriku July 1993

Shika-2 BWR 1304 MWe Hokuriku March 2006

Shimane-1 BWR 439 MWe Chugoku March 1974

Shimane-2 BWR 791 MWe Chugoku February 1989

Takahama-1 PWR 780 MWe Kansai November 1974

Takahama-2 PWR 780 MWe Kansai November 1975

Takahama-3 PWR 830 MWe Kansai January 1985

Takahama-4 PWR 830 MWe Kansai June 1985

Tokai-2 BWR 1060 MWe JAPC November 1978

Tomari-1 PWR 550 MWe Hokkaido June 1989

Tomari-2 PWR 550 MWe Hokkaido April 1991

Tomari-3 PWR 866 MWe Hokkaido December 2009

Tsuruga-1 BWR 341 MWe JAPC March 1970

Tsuruga-2 PWR 1110 MWe JAPC February 1987

Total: 50 reactors

44,396 MWe

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

B. Expansion of nuclear energy to China, South Korea and

Taiwan Operating Nuclear Reactors in China

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

7

Units Province Net capacity

(each) Type Operator

Commercial

operation

Daya Bay 1&2 Guangdong 944 MWe PWR (French

M310)

CGNPC 1994

Qinshan Phase I Zhejiang 279 MWe PWR (CNP-300) CNNC April 1994

Qinshan Phase II,

1-4

Zhejiang 610 MWe PWR (CNP-600) CNNC 2002, 2004,

2010, 2012

Qinshan Phase

III, 1&2

Zhejiang 665 MWe PHWR (Candu 6) CNNC 2002, 2003

Ling Ao Phase I,

1&2

Guangdong 935 MWe PWR (French

M310)

CGNPC 2002, 2003

Tianwan 1&2 Jiangsu 1000 MWe PWR (VVER-

1000)

CNNC 2007, 2007

Ling Ao Phase II,

1&2

Guangdong 1037 MWe PWR (CPR-1000) CGNPC Sept 2010, Aug

2011

Total: 15 11,881 MWe

Power Reactors Operating in South Korea

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html

II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

Reactor Type Net capacity Commercial Operation Planned Close

Kori 1 PWR - Westinghouse 576 MWe 4/78 2017

Kori 2 PWR - Westinghouse 637 MWe 7/83

Wolsong 1 PHWR - Candu 6 666 MWe 4/83 2036

Kori 3 PWR - Westinghouse 1007 MWe 9/85

Kori 4 PWR - Westinghouse 1007 MWe 4/86

Yonggwang 1 PWR - Westinghouse 953 MWe 8/86

Yonggwang 2 PWR - Westinghouse 947 MWe 6/87

Ulchin 1 PWR - Framatome 945 MWe 9/88

Ulchin 2 PWR - Framatome 942 MWe 9/89

Yonggwang 3 PWR (Syst 80) 997 MWe 12/95

Yonggwang 4 PWR (Syst 80) 994 MWe 3/96

Wolsong 2 PHWR - Candu 710 MWe 7/97

Wolsong 3 PHWR - Candu 707 MWe 7/98

Wolsong 4 PHWR - Candu 708 MWe 10/99

Ulchin 3 OPR-1000 994 MWe 8/98

Ulchin 4 OPR-1000 998 MWe 12/99

Yonggwang 5 OPR-1000 988 MWe 5/02

Yonggwang 6 OPR-1000 996 MWe 12/02

Ulchin 5 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 7/04

Ulchin 6 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 4/05

Shin Kori 1 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 2/11

Shin Kori 2 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 7/12

Shin Wolsong 1 OPR-1000 1001 MWe 7/12

Total: 23 20,787 MWe

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II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

Operating Taiwan Nuclear Power Reactors

* Dates are for start of commercial operation

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf115_taiwan.html

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Units type MWe gross MWe net Start up* Licenced to

Chinshan 1 BWR 636 604 1978 2018

Chinshan 2 BWR 636 604 1979 2019

Kuosheng 1 BWR

985 948 1981 2021

Kuosheng 2 BWR 985 948 1983 2023

Maanshan 1 PWR

951 900 1984 2024

Maanshan 2 PWR 951 923 1985 2025

Total (6)

4927 MWe net

II. Nuclear Energy in Asia

C. Asia-Pacific as the main arena for nuclear energy expansion

Source: IEA World Energy Outlook 2011, p. 544-615

D. Slower growth of nuclear energy in other parts of Asia

(excluding Eurasia)

West Asia: Iran is the only country, which has built a nuclear reactor for

electricity generation (Bushehr: 1000MW went online in 2011)

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

North America

Europe/Eurasia

Asia Oceania

Middle East

Africa

Latin America

Nuclear Energy Demand (Mtoe), 1990-2035

Note: statistics are calculated by adding up OECD Countries and Non-OECD Countries in each region.

III. Demystification of the incident at the

Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1)

A. The incident was triggered by a record earthquake (9 degrees) followed by a major

tsunami (15 meters high)

1.FNPP 1 tolerated the earthquake/tsunami

2.The tsunami damaged its cooling system leading to the core meltdown of its operating

reactors

3.Limited release of radiation estimated at 10% of that of Chernobyl

4.No death or major injury caused by radiation

5.Human errors as the main cause: Vulnerability of the FNPP 1’s cooling systems to

tsunamis due to miscalculations

6.Same incidents are avoidable by placing nuclear reactors’ cooling systems at a level

immune to the worst-case tsunamis.

Proof: Japan’s nuclear power plants in the tsunami/earthquake-affected region (excluding

FNPP 1) tolerated the natural disasters without experiencing any problem (e.g., Fukushima

Nuclear Power Plant 2).

The FNPP 1 incident does not prove the unsafe nature of nuclear

energy.

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III. Demystification of the incident at the

Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant 1 (FNPP 1)

B. Good safety record of nuclear energy: only three major accidents

leading to the release of radiation since the nuclear energy era

began •Three Mile Island (1979): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment

•Chernobyl (1986): human casualties and damages to the environment

•Fukushima (2011): no harm to humans and no major damage to the environment

Source: Three Mile Island, 28 March 1979; Chernobyl Disaster, 26 April 1986; Fukushima Disaster, 11 March 2011.

http://www.smashinglists.com/worst-nuclear-accidents-disasters-in-history/

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IV. The Post-Fukushima era

A. Negative view among the population at large about nuclear

energy

Main reasons:

–Lack of knowledge about nuclear energy

–Exaggerated reporting on the incident

Source: 1. Anti-nuclear protest in Japan on Fukushima’s first anniversary. http://www.citizenside.com/en/photos-videos/20101/environment.html

2. Anti-nuclear rallies in Europe a year after Fukushima. http://www.euronews.com/2012/03/11/anti-nuclear-rallies-in-europe-a-year-after-fukushima

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IV. The Post-Fukushima era

B. No major change in the global trends for nuclear

energy expansion

1. Those uncommitted to nuclear energy in the pre-

Fukushima era and/or have alternatives have declared phasing

out their nuclear sector or not opting for one a.Germany and Switzerland: It is uncertain if they will actually phase out their

nuclear reactors at the end of their life span

b.Italy will continue importing electricity from France’s nuclear reactors

2. Those committed in the pre-Fukushima era for certain

reasons have remained so (e.g., Brazil, France and Russia)

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IV. The Post-Fukushima era

C. The Fukushima nuclear incident’s impact on Asia

– Two distinct reactions in Japan and the rest of the

continent

• Japan’s reaction: Exceptional to the continental reaction as it

shut down all its nuclear reactors by June 2012 to conduct

stress tests out of safety concerns and public pressure

• Reaction in other parts of Asia: Emphasis on safety issues,

but no major change in their nuclear energy policy

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

A. The Asia-Pacific region

1. Major players: China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Pakistan have

remained the main arena for the global and Asian nuclear energy

expansion

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in China. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html This Table continues over the next two pages

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Plant Province MWe gross Reactor

model Project control Construction start Operation

Hongyanhe units 1-4 Liaoning 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC, with CPI 8/07, 4/08, 3/09, 8/09 10/12, 2013, 2014

Ningde units 1-4 Fujian 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC, with Datang 2/08, 11/08, 1/10, 9/10 12/12, 2013, 2014, 2015

Fuqing units 1&2 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 11/08, 6/09 11/13, 9/14

Yangjiang units 1-4 Guangdong 4x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 12/08, 8/09, 11/10, 3/11* 8/13, 2014, 2015, 2016

Fangjiashan units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 12/08, 7/09 12/13, 10/14

Sanmen units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 3/09, 12/09 11/13, 9/14

Haiyang units 1&2 Shandong 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 9/09, 6/10 5/14, 3/15

Taishan units 1&2 Guangdong 2x1770 EPR CGNPC 10/09, 4/10 10/13, 11/14

Hongyanhe units 5&6 Liaoning 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC, with CPI 2013? 2015

Shandong Shidaowan Shandong 210 HTR-PM Huaneng mid 2011 2015

Nuclear Reactors under Construction and

Planned, China

V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation

Fangchenggang units 1&2 Guangxi 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC 7/10, 2011 2015, 2016

Fuqing units 3&4 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNNC 7/10, 2011* 7/15, 5/16

Fuqing units 5&6 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000

or CNP1000 CNNC 2011, 2011* -

Changjiang units 1&2 Hainan 2x650 CNP-600 CNNC & Huaneng 4/10, 11/10 2014, 2015

Hongshiding (Rushan) units 1&2 Shandong 2x1080 CPR-1000 CNEC/CNNC Deferred from

2009? 2015

Yangjiang units 5&6 Guangdong 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC 2013* 2017

Ningde units 5&6 Fujian 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC

Xudabao / Xudapu units 1&2 Liaoning 2x1250 AP1000 CPI, with Datang 9/11, ? delayed

Sanmen units 3&4 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC

Haiyang units 3&4 Shandong 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2010?

Sanming units 1&2 Fujian 2x880 BN-800 CNNC 2013 2019, 20

Zhangzhou units 1&2 Fujian 2x100 ACP100 CNNC & Guodian 2015

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

Plant Province MWe gross Reactor model Project control Construction start Operation

Tianwan units 3&4 Jiangsu 2x1060 VVER-1000 CNNC ?, ?

Lianyungang units 1&2 Jiangsu 2x1080 CPR-1000 CGNPC

Shanwei (Lufeng) units 1&2 Guangdong 2x1080 ACPR-1000 CGNPC late 2012?

Shidaowan units 1-4 Shandong 4x1250 AP1000 Huaneng 2013? ?

Inland units planned but deferred

Wuhu units 1&2 Anhui 2x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2012 8/2016

Xianning (Dafan) units 1&2 Hubei 2x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2011 or 2015 2015?

Taohuajiang units 1-4 Hunan 4x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2011

4/2015-2018?

Pengze units 1&2 Jiangxi 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2011 or 2015 2015?

Xiaomoshan units 1&2 Hunan 2x1250 AP1000 CPI 2012

Longyou (Zhexi) units 1&2 Zhejiang 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2012

Yanjiashan/Wanan/Ji'an Jiangxi 2x1250 AP1000 CNNC 2012

Shaoguan units 1-4 Guangdong

(inland) 4x1250 AP1000 CGNPC 2013

Total: 81 90,750 MWe

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Wherever construction has started, the construction dates are marked in bold. Those reactors yet to be constructed are marked as 'planned' in the WNA reactor

table.

On1 December 2011, China had 26 reactors under construction (27,640 Mwe) and 51 reactors planned (57,480 Mwe ).

Fangjiashan is sometimes shown as a development of Qinshan Phase I.

* Approved, but construction delayed post-Fukushima

V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

Reactor Type

MWe gross,

net,

each

Project control Construction

start

Commercial

operation due

Safeguards

status

Kudankulam 1 PWR (VVER) 1000, 950 NPCIL March 2002

3/2012 but

delayed

item-specific

Kudankulam 2 PWR (VVER) 1000, 950 NPCIL July 2002 6/2012 but

delayed item-specific

Kalpakkam

PFBR FBR 500, 470 Bhavini Oct 2004 2013 -

Kakrapar 3 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Nov 2010 June 2015

Kakrapar 4 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL March 2011 Dec 2015

Rajasthan 7 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL July 2011 Dec 2016

Rajasthan 8 PHWR 700, 630 NPCIL Sept 2011 Dec 2016

Total (7)

4890 MWe

net,

5300 MWe

gross

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India’s Nuclear Power Reactors under

Construction

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in India. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf53.html

V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

Reactor Type Gross capacity Start construction Commercial

operation

Shin Wolsong 2 OPR-1000 1050 MWe September 2008 1/2013

Shin Kori 3 APR-1400 1350 MWe October 2008 9/2013

Shin Kori 4 APR-1400 1350 MWe August 2009 9/2014

Shin Ulchin 1 APR-1400 1350 MWe July 2012 4/2017

Shin Ulchin 2 APR-1400 1350 MWe Sept 2013 4/2018

Shin Kori 5 APR-1400 1350 MWe 8/2014 12/2018

Shin Kori 6 APR-1400 1350 MWe 8/2015 12/2019

Shin Wolsong 3 APR-1400 1350 MWe 6/2020

Shin Wolsong 4 APR-1400 1350 MWe 6/2021

Total 9 12,250 MWe

(c 11,680 MWe net)

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South Korean Reactors under Construction

or Planned

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in South Korea. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf81.html

V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

type MWe net start-up commercial

operation

Lungmen 1 ABWR 1300 2012? 2014-15

Lungmen 2

ABWR 1300 2012? 2015

total (2) 2600

21

Taiwan Nuclear Reactors under Construction

Source: World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Taiwan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf115_taiwan.html

World Nuclear Association. Nuclear Power in Pakistan. http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf108.html

Nuclear Power Reactors under Construction,

Planned and Proposed, Pakistan

Reactor Type MWe gross Construction

start

Commercial

operation

Chashma 3 PWR 340 May 2011 Dec 2016

Chashma 4 PWR 340 Dec 2011 Oct 2017

Chashma 5 PWR 1000?

Karachi 2 & 3 2 x 1000

Total 5 3680?

V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

2. New comer - Vietnam: Agreement with Russia for two 1000

MW reactors (construction of the first reactor is set to start in

2014 for completion in 2018) and another agreement with Japan

for two similar reactors to come on line in 2024-25; talks with

South Korea for another reactor

Source: 1. The sketch of Vietnam’s first nuclear power in Ninh Thuan Province. VietnamNews.biz.

http://www.vietnamnews.biz/Nuclear-power-appraisal-council-to-be-set-up_180.html

2. Vietnam PM Dung receives Russian Deputy Foreign Minister A. Borodavkin. Both side discussed orientations and measures to

enhance bilateral cooperation to accelerate the implementation of strategic cooperation projects, especially the project on construction

of the first nuclear-power plant in Vietnam. 26 April 2011 http://english.vietnamnet.vn/en/politics/7549/government-in-brief-26-4.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

B. West Asia & Eurasia

1. Iran has continued its program: Constructing its

indigenously-designed 360MW light water

Darkhoveyn reactor; plans for constructing two

more reactors near the operating Bushehr Plant

(two third-generation PWR nuclear reactors -

1000 to 1600 MW each)

2. Turkey: Continued commitment to its 2010

agreement with Russia for its financing, building

and operating four 1200 MW rectors in Turkey

(Construction to start in mid 2013); two nuclear

agreements with China were signed in 2012 but

few concrete details were made available.

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Source: 1. Bushehr I and II Nuclear Power Plants, Iran.

http://www.power-technology.com/projects/bushehr-nuclear/bushehr-nuclear4.html

2. Two nuclear energy agreements were signed under the auspices of Turkish Prime Minister

Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao in Beijing after their tete-a-tete

meeting and a meeting between their respective delegations at the Chinese National Assembly.

http://www.worldbulletin.net/?aType=haber&ArticleID=88335

V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

3. Armenia: continued use of its Soviet-built nuclear reactor (VER-440; net

capacity 376 MW)

-Approved in 2010 the construction of one unit (VVER1000MW; net

capacity: 1060 MW) to be built by Atomstroeyexport beginning in 2012 for

commissioning in 2019-2020

4. Kazakhstan: plan for a 600 MW nuclear power plant Source: The Metsamor nuclear plant at the base of Armenia’s towering symbol, Mount Ararat.

http://www.zmescience.com/ecology/environmental-issues/amernia-metsamor-nuclear-power-plant-hazard-to-world-14354523/

http://www.epress.am/en/2011/03/21/metsamor-nuclear-power-plant-would-withstand-japan-earthquake-expert.html

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V. Continued nuclear energy program in

Asia

C. Persian Gulf/Middle East

•UAE: Committed to its 2010 agreement with a South Korean

consortium for building four 1400 MW reactors: Construction

of Unit 1 started in July 2012 to be completed in 2017; other

units set to be operational in 2018 (unit 2), 2019 (Unit 3) and

2020 (units 4).

•Jordan: Plan to start building a 750-1200 MW reactor in

2013 to become operational by 2020 and a second one to go

online by 2025.

•Saudi Arabia: Plans to construct 16 nuclear power reactors

by 2032 (17 GW of nuclear capacity)

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VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era

26

A. Reasons for Asia’s commitment in

the pre-Fukushima era

1. Energy security (energy mix

diversification)

2. Ending heavy reliance on imported

fuels

3. Financial: heavy and growing cost of

fuel imports

Source: IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp. 40-41

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era

4. Political/security reasons: concerns about the vulnerability of the Asian

countries to political/military developments in their supplying regions

Source: 1. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_Spring

2. An oil refinery in Libya burns during the rebels’ push towards Tripoli. Photograph: Sean Smith for the Guardian.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2011/sep/02/next-war-libya-one-for-oil

27

Current Results of Arab Spring

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era 5. Depletion of oil/gas/coal reserves in fossil-energy-rich countries

- According to BP, world proved oil, gas and coal reserves in 2010 were

sufficient to meet 46.2, 58.6 and 118 years of global production, respectively.

6. Environmental reason: decreasing CO2 emissions to mitigate global warming

Asian countries had strong reasons to justify their opting for nuclear

energy in the pre-Fukushima era

Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2011, pp. 44-45.

28

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era

B. Reasons for Asia’s Commitment to Nuclear Energy in the Post-Fukushima

Era

1. Continued validity of the pre-Fukushima era’s reasons

2. Good safety record of nuclear energy since 1950s

- Only three major accidents

- Non-nuclear power generation has been more dangerous to

humans and the environment in the same period if their fuels’ production process is

taken into consideration

Coal as an example:

•Thousands of coal miners are killed every year due to mining accidents throughout the

world. In 2010, 2433 of miners were killed in China, for instance.

•CO2 accounts for the bulk of greenhouse gasses, the main cause of global warming.

Coal/peat burning for mainly power generation produced 12493 million tons of CO2 in

2009.

29

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era

3. Developments since 2011 with a positive impact on nuclear energy expansion

a. Availability concern: whether enough oil and gas will be available

•Concern about the availability of Arab oil/gas supplies given the prevailing political instability (e.g., Egypt)

and, in cases, war (Libya and Yemen) in the Arab oil/gas exporters of mainly North Africa and a fear of

expansion of such situation to the major Arab oil/gas exporters of the Persian Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,

Qatar, Oman and the UAE)

•Concern about the availability of African oil supplies owing to:

-- the independence of Sudan’s southern part containing about 90% of the country’s oil reserves,

which became official on 9 July 2011

China, India and Malaysia have been the main investors in Sudan’s oil industry in absence of the

major Western investors

--continued civil war and lawlessness in Nigeria

•Concern about the availability of Iranian oil/gas supplies due to the expanding UN-approved and unilateral

sanctions on Iran and a threat of war in the Persian Gulf

•Concern about a Western effort to physically control the major oil/gas exporting countries taking advantage

of the current situation (e.g., Libya)

30

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era

b. Affordability concern: unavailability of oil, gas and coal at affordable

prices in a sustainable manner -- end of cheap fossil energy, particularly

oil

–Growing cost of fossil energy especially oil and gas

–Growing cost of coal in Asia due to the growing need for cheap energy,

depletion of oil/gas resources and Japan’s more use of coal in the post-

Fukushima era.

–High oil prices to last in the foreseeable future due to various reasons

particularly high demands and political uncertainties in many oil-producing

countries.

c. Environmental concern: Necessity of mitigating global warming

requiring a major reduction in oil, gas and coal consumption, which is not

happening at the needed scale despite impressive efforts in China, India,

Japan and South Korea

31

VI. Asia’s commitment to nuclear energy

in the post-Fukushima era

4. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy for large-

scale electricity generation

–Wind, solar, wave and tidal energy are all necessary but unable to generate large-scale

electricity due to their technological underdevelopment

–Biomass generates CO2

–Biofuel: false promise for its production process is extremely pollutive and energy/water

intensive

Source: 1. Photo of the Year in Sweden award, a bio-fuel factory in Brazil making “environmentally-friendly fuel” for the European market

2. Forest fire in Indonesia, Beawiharta/Reuters, March 2009, http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/03/science/03obfires.html

3. Haze and dust particles enveloped the Singapore city skyline, September 2011, http://bernardoh.wordpress.com/2011/09/10/welcome-to-the-2011-

singapore-haze-season/

32

VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its

nuclear power sector

A. Importance of nuclear energy for Japan

1. Nuclear energy: accounting for 30% of its electricity generation before March

2011

2. Shortage of electricity due to the closure of all the Japanese nuclear power

reactors

Source: 1. Author’s creation based on Electricity/Heat in Japan in 2009, IEA. http://www.iea.org/stats/electricitydata.asp?COUNTRY_CODE=JP

2. Power outages in Tokyo area after Fukushima, http://news.asiaone.com/News/Latest%2BNews/Asia/Story/A1Story20110314-268070.html

33

VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its

nuclear power sector 3. Absence of environmentally-clean alternative to nuclear energy to generate large-scale electricity

4. Unsustainability of the current dependence on mainly fossil energy for electricity generation for financial,

security and environmental reasons

Sudden increase in oil, gas and coal imports to generate electricity

•Heavy financial burden

•Increasing vulnerability of Japan to political and military developments in its supplying region

•Growing CO2 emissions

5. Feasibility of safe operation of nuclear reactors

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, http://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/getujidb/index.htm#n

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VII. Japan’s eventual rehabilitation of its

nuclear power sector

B. Current situation and trends

- New Japanese Prime Minister (Yoshihiko Noda): Shift

towards rehabilitating the nuclear energy sector

-Resumption of operation of two reactors in July (No. 3 and

4 reactors at the Oi Nuclear power plant, west Japan)

- Japan will gradually re-operationalize its nuclear reactors

excluding those, which cannot be upgraded to withstand

tsunamis at an acceptable cost, and build new ones

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VIII. Nuclear energy as a necessity for

Asia

• Asia must further diversify its energy mix in a

sustainable manner to meet its growing energy

demand

• Nuclear energy is a necessity along with

environmentally-friendly renewables

• Evidence suggests that Asia will remain the main

scene for nuclear energy expansion despite the

Fukushima incident

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Thank you for paying attention!

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