Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management

N A T I O N A L N U C L E A R S E C U R I T Y A D M I N I S T R A T I O N

O F F I C E O F D E F E N S E P R O G R A M S

Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management

Information Presentation to:

American Association for the Advancement of Science

Dr. Donald Cook

Deputy Administrator for Defense Programs

National Nuclear Security Administration

10 November 2011

2

Overview

• Stockpile Management Requirements

• National Policy

• Production & Planning Directive

• Nuclear Security Enterprise

• Directed Work products

• Limited Life Component Exchange

• Tritium supply and Component Production

• Life Extension Program (LEP) refurbishments

• Dismantlement work

• Challenges and Opportunities

• Predictive Capability Framework

• Component Maturation Framework

• LEP phase approach

3

“The United States will take concrete steps towards a world

without nuclear weapons... Make no mistake: As long as

these weapons exist, the United States will maintain a safe,

secure and effective arsenal to deter any adversary, and

guarantee that defense to our allies...”

President Obama, April 5, 2009

Prague, Czech Republic

“Conduct research and development on a broad range of safety, security,

reliability, and control methods and devices for nuclear warheads and weapon

systems, including use control, and delay and denial capabilities. As a long-

term goal, pursue technologies that render the unauthorized use of U.S. nuclear

weapons impossible without their remanufacture.”

National Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-28

National Strategic Policy for Nuclear Weapons has been Clearly Formulated

4

National Strategic Policy for Nuclear Weapons has been Clearly Formulated

The NPR stated the following as priorities, among others:

“…providing annual stockpile assessments through weapons

surveillance.”

“…funding fully the ongoing LEP for the W76 submarine-based

warhead and the LEP study and follow-on activities for the B61

bomb…”

“…initiating a study of LEP options for the W78 ICBM warhead,

including the possibility of using the resulting warhead also on SLBMs

to reduce the number of warhead types…”

“…the science, technology and engineering base, vital for stockpile

stewardship as well as providing insights for non-proliferation, must be

strengthened…”

Department of Defense, “Nuclear Posture Review”, April 2010 T

5

National Laboratories and Test Site

Sandia Nat’l Laboratories NM and CA Sites

Systems engineering, neutron

generators, and non-nuclear

component design

Nevada National Security

Site Nevada

Experimental site and

“subcritical” nuclear material tests

Los Alamos

Nat’l Laboratory Los Alamos, New Mexico

Nuclear design lab and Pu Sustainment

(B61, W76, W78, W88)

Lawrence Livermore

Nat’l Laboratory Livermore, California

Nuclear design lab

(W80, W87, B83)

Kansas City Plant Kansas City, Missouri

Nonnuclear manufacturing/

Procurement

Production Complex

Pantex Plant Amarillo, Texas

Weapons assembly/disassembly

Y-12 National Security

Complex Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Uranium operations

Savannah River Site Aiken, South Carolina

Tritium operations

Nuclear Security Enterprise Sites

6

Shared Nuclear Deterrence Responsibilities with DoD

Establish military

requirements

Design, develop, test, and

produce delivery system

Operate complete nuclear

weapons system

Secure and maintain

nuclear weapons

Train personnel and plan

for employment

Maintain safety, security

and reliability of the

stockpile

Research and develop

nuclear weapon science,

technology and

engineering

Support stockpile levels

Validate warhead safety

and assess reliability

Produce and manage

nuclear materials

7

Today’s Nuclear Stockpile and Delivery Systems

W80-1

W76-0/1, W88

D5

W78, W87

MM III

B-52

B61-11, W80-1, B83-1

Both must be transformed to meet tomorrow’s priorities

B61-3/4/10

F-15E

F-16

B61-7/11, B83-1

B-2A

8

Bombs and Cruise Missiles

B61-3/-4/-10 B61-7/-11 B83 W80-1

Description Non-strategic

bomb

Strategic bomb Strategic bomb Air launched

cruise missile

Primary Use Air to surface Air to surface Air to surface Air to surface

Delivery System F-15E, F-16,

PA200, F-35

B-2 B-2, B-52 B-52

Service Air Force Air Force Air Force Air Force

Date Entered

Service

10/79 (-3), 8/79 (-4)

8/90 (-10)

9/85 (-7),

11/97(-11)

9/83 2/82

Laboratory LANL & Sandia LANL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia

9

Ballistic Missiles

W76 W78 W87 W88

Description SLBM ICBM ICBM SLBM

Primary Use Underwater to

surface

Surface to surface Surface to surface Underwater to

surface

Delivery System Trident II (D-5) Minuteman III Minuteman III Trident II (D-5)

Service Navy Air Force Air Force Navy

Date Entered

Service

11/78 9/79 7/86 6/89

Laboratory LANL & Sandia LANL & Sandia LLNL & Sandia LANL & Sandia

10

The Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan Charts the Development of Advanced Science and

Technology Required for Weapons Sustainment

Advanced computational models of all aspects of

weapons operation

In-depth evaluation of components and materials

Analysis of new production methods

High resolution CT radiographs of pits

Advanced spectroscopic analysis of gases

Replacement of limited life components (LLCE)

Modern technology employed as indicated by analysis

Advanced science and technology employed in complete Life Extension Program (LEP) for each system.

Predictive Capability and Component Maturation (PCF &CMF) planning methodologies define science and technology requirements

SSMP – charts new infrastructure and capability requirements

Assessments and Analysis

Surveillance

Sustainment (LLCEs, LEPs)

Proactive Planning

(SSMP/PCF/CMF)

Key elements of Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan (SSMP):

11

Limited Life Components

• A Limited Life Component (LLC) is a component, used in a nuclear

weapon, that decays with age and must be replaced on a periodic

basis

Tritium Reservoirs (LANL/SNL/KCP/SRS)

Neutron Generators (SNL)

Gas Generators

Radio-isotopic Thermoelectric

12

LLC Production Rates

Production Run FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

W76-0,1

W78

W87

B83

W80-1

W88

B61

Large Ferro Electric NG – In production Small Ferro Electric NG – In development

Electronic NG – In development - First production unit (FPU)

Quantities FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20

TPBARS

Neutron

Generators 696 724 540 540 540 640 640 640 640 640

Gas Transfer

Systems 1024 427 594 658 788 675 907 1004 1027 865

544 1696 1504 1104 544 544

TPBARS produced in 18 month cycles at Watts Bar, TVA

13

Authorized

( )

As of January 24, 2011

Notes

* Some hedge warheads are built during the FY 2021-2024 timeframe

**The Air Force is leading an Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) for the future of long range stand-off vehicles (Ref. Section 1251 Report to Congress, November 2010)

Dates shown burgundy represent deliveries of given components and/or refurbishments to the Department of Defense (DoD)

NG - Neutron Generator

GTS - Gas Transfer System

SRM - Spin Rocket Motors

There are numerous alternative pathways being explored that could impact future SLEP Plans, for instance:

-- NPR recommendation for the evaluation of the W78 ICBM warhead LEP and the possibility for use on multiple platforms

-- Technical drivers as discovered within the framework of the surveillance program

-- Other technical and programmatic issues that may arise

Nuclear Explosive Package (NEP) /

Arming, Fuzing, and Firing (AF&F) Assembly

6.2-6.5

(Pending W78-LEP Warhead Analyses)

Stockpile Life Extension Program (SLEP) PlansFiscal Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2817 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 35

Ph

ase

6.X

Pro

cess

Maj

or

Act

ivit

ies

Maj

or

Life

Ext

en

sio

n P

rogr

ams

at P

ante

x &

Y-1

2

Submarine Launched

Ballistic Missile Warhead (W76)

Tactical/ Strategic Bomb LEP

(B61-3/4/7/10)6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5

NEP, AF&F, & Surety

(Pending Approval)

Intercontinental

Ballistic Missile Warhead (W78)6.1

29 30 31 32

Air Delivered

Bomb

(B61-11/B83-1)

33 34

Intercontinental

Ballistic Missile Warhead (W87)6.1 6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5

6.2-6.2ANEP, AF&F, & Surety

(Pending Approval) (continue production of additional hedge warheads)*

NEP, AF&F, & Surety

(Pending Approval)

Submarine Launched

Ballistic Missile Warhead (W88)

NEP & Surety

(Pending Approval)

Cruise Missile Warhead

(W80-1)6.1 6.2-6.2A

(GTS) Drivers are inside boxes

Fie

ld

Re

furb

ish

me

nts

(Be

yon

d T

riti

um

Re

qu

ire

me

nts

) B61-3/4/10

W87

Full-Scale Production (LEPs)

Full-Scale Production

(Minor)

Lim

ite

d L

ife

Co

mp

on

en

t Ex

chan

ge

Min

or

Re

furb

ish

me

nts

at

Pan

tex

W80-1 NG

W87 NG

W88

B83-1 NG & GTS

(SRM)

B61-11

Field Refurbishments at DoD

Facilities

Studies &

Engineering

NG & AF&F

6.3-6.5

6.3-6.5

(NG)

LEGEND

**Evaluation underway on impacts of replacement cruise missile

Stockpile Life Extension Programs

Modernizing the Stockpile

14

• Continue ongoing assessment and certification

activities

• Conduct REST and Stockpile surveillance

activities

• Accomplish safety studies necessary to maintain

production and surveillance activities

• Monitor number of SFIs and aging effects

• First system to implement Phase 6.X process

• Implement improved project management and

controls

• Improve weapon safety and reliability

• Eliminate quality and reliability watch list items

• Improve physics margin

• Eliminate safety soft spots

• Reduce future maintenance and future weapon

exposure

• Continue W76 LEP production and deliver

completed W76-1s to the Department of the

Navy

FY 2012 – FY 2018 Objectives

D-5 Missile SLBM Flight

Test

W76 Life Extension Program

15

B61 Full Scope LEP

• Qualify and certify the refurbished B61

for an additional lifetime with the FPU in

FY 2017

• Ensure modern and legacy aircraft

compatibility

• Integrate new Air Force delivery

capability

• Consolidate (4) B61 modifications into a

single bomb variant

• Improve weapon safety, use control and

reliability

• Implement improved project

management & controls

• Reduce special nuclear material

• Reduce maintenance and weapon

exposure

• Improve physics margin

• Eliminate safety soft spots

FY 2012 – FY 2017 Objectives

B61 Life Extension Program

16

LEP Planning Framework

Programmatic

and Technical

Source

Requirements

Life Extension

Options

Engineering, Readiness,

Stockpile Services

(Development/Production)

Science, ASC, ICF, Advanced

Certification, Engineering

Production Readiness/ RTBF

CMF

PCF

Stockpile

Modernization

Requirements and

Drivers

Prioritizing and

Planning Investment

Decision

Technology Development,

Certification, and Component

Maturation

Technology Down-

Select and

Stockpile Insertion

Stockpile Services and

Systems (Advanced

Architecture)

17

The Predictive Capability Framework (PCF) Provides a Roadmap for Science Advances

Predictive Capability Framework

2006

2009

2012

2015

Safety and Security

Nuclear Explosive

Package Assessment

Engineering

Assessment

Hostile Environments,

Output and Effects

Experimental and

Computation Capabilities

2020

B61 Safety

Design Options

Multi-point

Safety

MPS – Realistic

Environment

Margin and Uncertainties

for Advanced Systems

Energy Balance

Initial Cond.(early phase)

Initial Cond.(late phase)

Burn-init

Secondary

Perform. 1

Burn

Boost

Secondary

Perform. 2

Surveillance

Neutron GeneratorValidated Model

Normal

Environment

3D Abnormal

Assessment

Flight

Performance

Full Re-Entry

Performance

Non-Nuclear Design andQualification with QMU

Adv. Circuit

Prediction andIntegrated Response

“End-End” Outputs

and Total Response

DARHT

MESA

PetaflopComputing

CEFNIF

LANSCE

100-200Petaflop

300-500Petaflop

Exascale

Computing

18

The Component Maturation Framework (CMF) Provides a Roadmap for Stockpile Technology

Development and Insertion W

orkin

g Do

cum

ent

Component Maturation Framework

FY 2010FY 2013

FY 2016FY 2019

Arming, Fuzing, and

Firing

Limited-Life

Components

Nuclear Explosives

Package

Safety, Security and

Use Control

Diagnostics

Facilities

Systems StructuralHandling Gear

Shipping Containers

Supports/Mounts

Environmental Testing



Micro

Micro

Micro

JTA

JTA

JTA

Testers

NDE Equipment

Trainers

Power Sources

Use ControlPower Sources

Use Control

Case

Secondary/InterstagePrimary

CasePrimary

GTS

NG

Fuzing

Fuzing

FiringArming

Arming

Power Sources

Power Sources

Hardware

Arming

Power Sources

Fuzing

Firing

B61 LEP W88 AltW78 LEP

NG

Handling and Rework

Handling Gear

Trainers

Testers

W88 NG

September 6, 2011

Hardware

B61-11 NGNG

W87 NG

GTSW87 GTS

W80-1 NGW88 GTS

W80-1 GTS

Fuzing

W80-1B83-1W87 NG

B61-11

Secondary/Interstage

Dates shown are the required dates for achieving TRL7/MRL6 status.*The W88 NEP LEP FPU Date is FY 2025.

UPF Technologies

Firing

Legend

B61 LEP Sub-System

W88 Alt Sub-System

W78 LEP Sub-System

W88 NEP Sub-System*

LLC Exchange Sub-System

Hardware

Primary

Secondary/Interstage

Handling and Rework

19

Flow of Science and Technology Deliverables to the LEP process

Phase 6.2/2A

Feasibility and Cost

Study

Phase 6.4

Production

Engineering

Phase 6.3

Development

Engineering

Phase

6.5

FPU

Phase 6.6 Full

Rate Production

Phase

6.1Study

SSMP-PCF, CMF

• Refurbishment options analyzed (PCF)

• Determination of component lifetimes

(CMF)

CMF

• Component technology and manufacturing development

• Integration between DAs, PAs, and FPMs

PCF

• Certification and qualification activities

• Models and simulations of all aspects of weapon performance

• Supplies computational tools and data to the CMF

Ph

as

e 6

.x

Acronyms

DA=Design Agency

FPM=Federal Program Manager

PA=Production Agency

20

Paradigm Shift - New Approach

Leveraging development for one

system into the following system

Deployed

Hedge

Deployed

Hedge

Deployed

Hedge

Both

Development 15 year touches

Use of pre-builds and concurrent builds to

better utilize production capacities Refurbishing the deployed for the

stockpile first (Build A)

Deployed

Hedge

Deployed

Hedge

Deployed

Hedge

Both

Production

Goal: Shorten Phase 6.2 - 6.5 by continuously studying systems and components

21

Notional Architecture, Technology and Component Maturation Process

ICBM

(W87)

6.3-6.5 Build A

6.3-6.5 Build B

6.3-6.5 Build A

Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual Assessment



4037 38 3934 35 3631 32 33Fiscal Year 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 3027 28 29

NEP & AF&FSLBM

(W76)

24 25 2618 19 20 21 22 23

ICBM

(W78)

6.2-6.2A 6.3-6.5 Build A

SLBM

(W88)

Cruise Missile

(W80/LRSO)

Continuous Phase 6.1 Activity + Annual AssessmentT / S Bomb

(B61-3/4/7/10)


6.3-6.56.2A

6.2A

Build B

Build A6.3-6.5

6.3-6.5

6.2A

AF&F6.3-6.5

6.2A

Architecture, Technology, and Component Maturation Program(Provide Future Architectures, Technologies and Components to Systems at TRL5/MRL6)

Ne

eds

22

Dismantlement Program

• Planned NNSA quantities completed

• Pantex Dismantlements

• FY08: 110% (648)*

• FY09: 117% (356)*

• FY10: 126%

• FY11: 120%

• CSA Dismantlements

• FY08: 141%

• FY09: 110%

• FY10: 110%

• FY11: 100%

Complete by 2022 the dismantlement of all weapons systems retired prior to 2009. - DOE Strategic Plan, May 2011

NNSA evaluating the feasibility of accelerating dismantlements

*Fact Sheet: Increasing Transparency in the US Nuclear Weapons Stockpile

23

Major Physical Infrastructure Projects

UPF

-

PF-4

CMRR-NF

Chemistry Metallurgy Research Replacement-Nuclear

Facility (CMRR-NF): Construction completed by 2020

Plutonium Facility-4 (PF-4): Recapitalization will enable pit

manufacturing capacity up to 80 pits per year by 2022

High Explosive (HE) Pressing Facility: New facility ensures

sustained responsiveness for all HE mission-related work with a

production capacity from 300 up to 500 hemispheres per year and

construction completed by 2017

KCRIMS

HE Pressing

Facility

Uranium Processing Facility (UPF): Up to 80

secondaries per year by 2022, construction completed by 2020

Kansas City Responsive Infrastructure, Manufacturing and

Sourcing (KCRIMS): New facility supports non-nuclear

production, active weapons programs, dismantlement programs

and all life extension programs, construction completed by 2012

24

The new Kansas City Complex ( KCRIMS) is 1/3 complete

Ground breaking for the High Explosives Pressing Facility (HEPF) at Pantex

was on August 30

For the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) at Y-12:

All NEPA activity is complete

All public hearings are complete

Record of decision is complete

At Pantex:

SS-21 (Seamless Safety) is fully in place

All weapon types can be maintained

At Sandia:

MESA is fully operational

Neutron generator facility is in place

Z Refurbishment is complete, high-quality data are being obtained

Significant Progress has been Made in Modernizing the NSE infrastructure

Acronyms

MESA=Microsystems and Engineering Sciences Applications

NEPA=National Environmental Policy Act

NSE=Nuclear Security Enterprise

SEIS=Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement

SS21=Seamless Safety in the 21st Century

25

At Savannah River:

Tritium extraction is underway

At Los Alamos:

DARHT is fully complete and generating high-quality data

CMRR final SEIS has been issued, Record of Decision (ROD) issued

PF-4: All major fixes for seismological issues are being implemented;

completion in late Calendar 11 and early 12

At Livermore:

NIF is fully in place and generating high-quality data for ICF and weapon

science

At Nevada:

Criticality Experiments Facility (CEF) is complete and generating data

U1a subcritical experiments are generating high-quality data

JASPER gas gun experiments are underway again

Significant Progress has been Made in Modernizing the NSE infrastructure

26

The Stockpile Stewardship and Management Plan

provides a roadmap for the advanced science and

technology development required to maintain the safety,

security and reliability of the stockpile

In pursuit of the stockpile mission, NNSA has driven

world leading developments in materials science, high

energy density physics, computational science, special

nuclear material processing, and advanced

manufacturing

Conclusions

Documents

Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Management