NWS Binghamton Heavy Rain/Flood Potential

Briefing #3

Issued 10:30 am Wednesday 06/13/2013

Dave Nicosia Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Binghamton, NY

This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only

- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State.

- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.

Executive Summary - A strong low pressure system will track from northwest Pennsylvania to the

New Jersey coast today.

- Rain will continue across north central NY through the day and taper off

this evening. Rain in northeast PA and central NY will taper off this

morning and then more rain will develop later this afternoon and last until

the late evening.

- Rainfall amounts will range between 1 and 3 inches in many areas locally

up to 4 inches.

- Lake and Reservoir levels will rise generally less than 1 foot. Spill flows on

regional reservoirs will increase.

- Flash flood potential remains on smaller river tributaries, streams, urban

and flood prone areas.

-North Central NY this morning/early afternoon.

-South Central NY/northeast PA later this afternoon and evening.

- The timing of highest potential for river flooding would be Tonight through

Friday night.

Rainfall Timing: Model Projected Radar

Dry Slot

Northwest edge of rain shield will drop southeast this afternoon.

Northwest edge of rain shield at 5 pm

Western edge of rain shield slow downs and lingers until late this evening

Forecast Rainfall through Tonight

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Binghamton

NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/13/2013

10:30 PM

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Rainfall ranging from 1 to 2 inches extending south from the Finger Lakes to the Southern Tier with 2 to 3 inches across northeast PA, the Catskills and Susquehanna Region of NY.

Expecting up to bank full on the rivers, possibly

some minor flooding few spots.

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Binghamton

NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/13/2013

10:30 AM

Follow Us: @NWS Binghamton

Near Bank full = Yellow Dots

Minor flooding = Orange Dots

Moderate flooding = Red Dots

Major Flooding = Purple Dots

Highest threats will be to the tributaries and reservoirs of the Delaware river basin, plus areas of the Upper Susquehanna.

Potential Impacts

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Binghamton

NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/13/2013

10:30 AM

Follow Us: @NWS Binghamton

- Between 1 and 3 inches of rain expected, locally up to 4 inches.

- Predicted rainfall a little less than what we were forecasting yesterday.

- Significant rises of area rivers and lakes likely into Friday.

- Rivers will crest ¾ bank full to bank full most areas, some minor

flooding possible at a few gauges in the Delaware basin from Tonight

into Friday night. Headwaters most vulnerable.

- Still potential for small stream flash flooding and urban flooding.

NWS Binghamton-led audio/webinar will be held for the Delaware River Basin counties only

at 11:30 AM. - Another PDF Briefing will be sent this afternoon.

For continuous updates:

– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm

– Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs

– River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm

– Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/