Ocean 506A THE CHANGING ARCTIC OCEAN- an interdisciplinary perspective for IPY

(International Polar Year 2007-2009)

Recent years show unprecedented change in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean.

What is currently known about the complex Arctic Ice-Ocean system and the ecosystems it supports?

What will be the impacts of continuing change within and beyond the Arctic?

Ocean 506A THE CHANGING ARCTIC OCEAN

In this interdisciplinary course, we will explore the interacting physical, chemical and biological components of the Arctic System, including:

-- riddles of Arctic Ocean circulation-- defining roles of the sea-ice cover-- likely shifts in nutrient regimes and ecosystems-- and recent explorations of the seafloor,

and consider the impacts of Arctic Change on global climate, native communities, and future exploitation of an ice-free summer ocean.

The aims of the course are to develop:-- an understanding of how the Arctic ocean system works-- an understanding of observed and potential changes in the Arctic and impacts of these changes in

the Arctic and beyond-- an appreciation of why we should care about Arctic Change.

Skill development: To thrive in research (and other careers) requires skills beyond scientific data analysis, for example:

-- discerning inquiry-- coherent communication (written and oral)-- competence in more than one discipline.

Ocean 506A THE CHANGING ARCTIC OCEAN

Assignments/gradingAssignments are both written and oral; no tests or final exam. Grade: Course grade will be determined from - two written assignments (30% each)- one team-presented oral discussion of a published paper (20%)- class participation, especially in the weekly paper discussions (20%). Written Assignments:- The first, due April 27, is a 5-page essay that shows evidence of literature review (reference list of at least five papers) and thoughtful analysis. An original graphic, flow diagram, table, etc. to help convey your analysis is encouraged.- The second, due June 1, is development of an experimental plan, suitable for an interdisciplinary 1-year IPY project. Details, including topics from which to select, will be given as the course proceeds. Oral Assignments:- On Wednesdays (starting week 3, but excluding weeks when written assignments are due), a team of two students will lead a 20+ min discussion of a published paper. Papers will be selected, with class input, a week in advance. - Everyone reads the assigned paper before class, so that after its main points are presented by the assigned team, a class discussion can follow in which all should be prepared to participate.

Ocean 506A THE CHANGING ARCTIC OCEAN

Draft syllabus

‘70s

‘80s

‘90s

‘00s

The Canadian Coast Guard research icebreaker Amundsen, making an historic passage through ice-free Bellot Straight in the Canadian Archipelago in Nov 2006

Global maps often cut here!Global maps often cut here!

PerspectivePerspectivedetermines ourdetermines our

view of the Arctic.view of the Arctic.

The Arctic OceanThe Arctic Oceanis a centrally placed,is a centrally placed,mediterraneanmediterranean oceanocean

and node of theand node of theNorthern HemisphereNorthern Hemisphere

Circulation.Circulation.

(from Carmack and Wassmann, 2006)

E

P H

The ‘job’ of theClimate System is to redress the global radiativeheat imbalance(courtesy of Eddy Carmack, IOS, Canada)

Climate changeClimate change

Summer iceSummer icedistributiondistribution

Blue: todayBlue: today

Red: 2050Red: 2050

(from Carmack and Wassmann, 2006)

A B

C D

(from Carmack and Wassmann, 2006)

The Big Question

Is this co-called“Arctic System”headed towardsa new state … ?

… outside the known glacial& interglacial cycles???

… i.e. a serious case of phase change … ?

(courtesy of Eddy Carmack, IOS, Canada)

Polar Research Boardwww.nas.edu/prb

A Vision forInternational Polar Year 2007-08

A Vision forInternational Polar Year 2007-08

US National Committee for IPYPolar Research Board

The National Academieswww.us-ipy.org

T HE NAT IONAL ACADE MIE SA d v is o rs to th e N a tio n o n S c ie n c e , E n g in e e rin g , a n d M e d ic in e

IPY Concept• IPY 2007-2008 will be an intense, internationally coordinated

campaign of polar observations, research and analysis that will further our understanding of physical and social processes in polar regions, examine their globally-connected role in the climate system, and establish research infrastructure for the future.

• IPY will galvanize new and innovative observations and research while building on and enhancing existing relevant initiatives.

• Timeframe: 1 March 2007 – 1 March 2008*

* (recently revised to 1 March 2009 to include austral summer)

Why International?

• The polar regions – both North and South – are inherently international terrain

• What happens in the polar regions affects ALL nations around the globe

• The science challenges exceed the capability of any one nation

• A coordinated approach maximizes outcomes

• International collaboration shares the benefits and builds common understanding

Why Polar?• Environmental changes in polar regions are unprecedented

and vivid– Arctic sea ice cover decreasing in extent– Some Antarctic ice shelves are retreating and thinning– Glaciers around globe are retreating– Ecosystems changing (earlier bloom times)– Changes in permafrost

• The polar regions play key roles in global processes• The ice is a “library” of information about the past

Why a Year?• Intensive burst of effort will accelerate progress and

initiate activities that couldn’t be done otherwise• Intensive investigations will lay groundwork for

sustained assessments of environmental change and variability

• Provides opportunity for observations at both polar regions over all seasons

• Resulting enhanced infrastructure and observing systems will provide improved foundation for ongoing science

Why 2007-2008?

• Pressing need to understand change in the polar regions

• Anniversary of past IPYs and IGY provides a firm deadline

• New advances in technology and logistics provide ways to address new issues and access new areas

• The time available for planning is challenging but feasible

History of the “International Year” Concept

• 1882-1883: 1st International Polar Year 11 nations, first coordinated international science

• 1932-1933: 2nd International Polar Year40 nations, focus on meteorology, magnetism, radio science

• 1957-1958: International Geophysical Year67 nations, global focus on geosciences andapplying WWII technologies

• 2007-2008: 3rd International Polar Year30+ nations, broad interdisciplinary focus, with emphasis on environmental change and including human dimensions

Evolution of IPY 2007-2008• Early discussions - 2002• USA-UK discussions - early 2003• ICSU forms IPY Planning Group - March 2003

– Invites nations to participate– Outlines IPY concept and circulates outline science plan– Delivers report “A Framework for IPY” to ICSU

• US National Committee - August 2003– Encourages community input at conferences & web– Nurtures agency involvement– Articulates overarching IPY science issues in report, “A

Vision for the IPY 2007-2008”– Hosts Interagency IPY Implementation Workshop in July

2004 and produces workshop report• ICSU-WMO form Joint Committee – January 2005

– Issues call for Expressions of Interest (January 05)– Hosts Open Consultative Forum and sorts EoIs (March 05)– Issues call for revised EoIs (due June 30, 2005)

ICSU’s First Steps inInternational Planning

• Facilitates open planning process• 30+ countries involved to date• Over 20 National Committees formed• Coordination with international bodies (SCAR, IASC,

Arctic Council, Antarctic Treaty nations, eGY, IHY)• Compiles preliminary catalog of research ideas• Stresses Social Science - Physical Science Dialog• Produces key report, “A Framework for IPY 2007-

2008” and receives ICSU endorsement

Participating Nations• Argentina • Australia• Austria• Belgium• Brazil• Canada• Czech Republic• Chile• China• Denmark• Greenland• Finland• France• Germany• Greenland• Iceland• India• Ireland• Italy• Japan

• Korea• Malaysia• New Zealand• Norway• Poland• Portugal• Russia• South Africa• Spain• Sweden• Switzerland• The Netherlands• Ukraine• United Kingdom• United States of America• Uruguay

Contents of ICSU Framework• ICSU Framework Report includes:

– Science themes– Observational initiatives– Data management – Education, outreach and communication– Organizational structure– IPY Criteria– Suggested implementation process

• Next steps now fall upon new ICSU-WMO Joint Committee (March 7-11, 2005 in Paris) and National Committees, groups of scientists, national funding organizations

IPY Themes1. Determine environmental status by studying spatial

and temporal variability2. Quantify past and present environmental and human

change3. Advance understanding of polar - global

teleconnections4. Investigate the unknowns at the frontiers of polar

science5. Use the unique vantage point of the polar regions to

enhance observations of Earth and beyond (the inner core, magnetic field, the Sun and beyond)

6. Investigate cultural, historical, and social processesthat shape the resilience and sustainability of circumpolar human societies

Observational Initiatives1. Produce synoptic set of multidisciplinary

observations to establish the status of the polar environment

2. Acquire key data sets to understand factors controlling change in the polar environment

3. Establish a legacy of multidisciplinary observational networks

4. Launch of internationally coordinated, multidisciplinary expeditions into new scientific frontiers

5. Help implement polar observatories to study important facets of Planet Earth and beyond

6. Create datasets on the changing conditions of circumpolar human societies from the First IPY 1882-83 to the present

Criteria for IPY Activities1. Makes significant advances within one or more IPY themes2. Involves at least one polar region and takes place in timeframe3. Contributes to international collaboration 4. A viable management plan and organisational structure5. A viable approach for securing funding6. A viable plan for securing appropriate logistical support 7. Agrees to the principles of IPY data management and proposes a

viable data management plan8. A viable plan or approach for education, outreach and

communication activities9. Foster the next generation of polar researchers10. Provides opportunities for lasting legacies (observation sites,

facilities, systems)11. Builds on existing plans and initiatives or at least does not conflict12. Has interdisciplinary elements (team, project etc.)

Initial US Planning Led by US National Academy of Sciences

President Lincoln established the National Academy of Sciences in 1863 as an independent scientific advisor to the nation. In the US, the NAS is the adhering

body to the International Council for Science (ICSU). Thus, the US National Committee for IPY is housed within the NAS, in close

association with the government agencies interested in polar science. Our role is in planning and communications; selection and funding of activities will be

done through normal agency mechanisms.

US National Committee for IPY2003-2005*

Mary Albert, Chair, ERDC CRRELCecilia Bitz, WashingtonJohn Kelley, Alaska-FairbanksDouglas Wiens, Washington at St. LouisIgor Krupnik, Smithsonian InstitutionLouis Lanzerotti, Bell Labs/Lucent

TechnologiesPhilip Smith, McGeary & SmithJerry Bowen, CBS NewsRichard Glenn, Arctic Slope Regional

CorporationGeorge Somero, StanfordCristina Takacs-Vesbach, New Mexico

Robert Bindschadler, NASA - GSFCDavid Bromwich, Ohio StateGunter Weller, Alaska-FairbanksJacqueline Grebmeier, TennesseePeter Schlosser, Lamont-Doherty Earth

ObservatoryChuck Kennicutt (Ex-officio) Texas A&MTerry Wilson (Ex-officio) Ohio StatePatrick Webber (Ex-officio) Michigan

StateRobin Bell (Ex-officio) Lamont-Doherty

Earth Observatory

*Jody Deming (appointed 2006-2008), University of Washington

US National Committee Activities

• Conducts outreach to science communities and agencies• Provides strong input to international planning• Led open and inclusive planning process• Produced key report, “A Vision for IPY 2007-2008”• Organized of agency implementation workshop and delivery of

workshop report• Continues activities to engage people and ensure that IPY is a

success• Continues role in facilitation and communication, participation

in international planning, outreach

US GoalsFrom the report

“A Vision for the IPY 2007-2008”• Initiate sustained efforts to assess large-scale

environmental change and variability in the polar regions• Conduct studies of coupled human-natural systems

critical to societal, economic, and strategic interests• Explore scientific frontiers from the molecular to the

planetary scale• Develop multidisciplinary observing networks that

provide a long-term perspective• Invest in critical infrastructure and technology to ensure

enduring benefits• Create new connections between science and the public• Participate as leaders in IPY 2007-2008

“Vision Report” Available

Free PDF copies of the Vision report and Workshop report are available at:

www.us-ipy.org or http://www.nap.edu

The Avalanche Model:Success Requires Broad Participation

• Scientists and Engineers• Universities• Agencies• US National Committee• ICSU-WMO Joint Planning

Committee

FoundationsEducatorsMediaPrivate sectorNGOsCommunities

Early recognition – there is no one “lead”on IPY, but many equally important parts

What Can You Do?• Find ways to get all the necessary “avalanche” participants

engaged asap

• Work with colleagues in science and agencies to plan activities,increase awareness and move toward implementation

• Form international partnerships and help nurture national and international funding sources and logistics coordination

• Follow guidance from ICSU-WMO Joint Committee at www.ipy.org

• Check www.us-ipy.org for US IPY information

• Commit to making something happen!

For More Informationwww.us-ipy.org

www.ipy.orgwww.national-academies.org/prbChris Elfring c/o prb@nas.edu

Chris Elfring, Polar Research BoardThe National Academies

500 Fifth Street NWWashington DC 20001

202 334 3479