October 30th, 2006 Japan Electric Power Exchange Keiichi Hohki

-1- Ⓒ 2006 Japan Electric Power Exchange All Rights Reserved

October 30th, 2006

Japan Electric Power Exchange

Keiichi Hohki

Outline of Japan Electric Power Exchange


Contents

1. Japan's electric power systems

2. Japan's electricity industry

3. Outline of liberalization and roles of power exchange

4. Japan Electric Power Exchange

5. JEPX Markets

6. JEPX's track record to date


• Changes in transmission systems used in Germany between 1880 and 1935

1880 1890 　 1900 　 1910 　 1920 　 1930 1935

A B D

Multiphase alternating currentD

100

0

20

(%)40

60

80

C

（ source ） T.P.Hughes ：” Networks of Power” 　

A Direct current B Mixture of alternating and direct currentC Single-phase alternating current


Introduction to electric power industry

• Direct current tree-type transmission on an area basis

B Company

G G

A Company

G G G


• Realization of long-distance alternating current transmission and formation of networks

C Company （ =A company + B company)

G G G GG



• Realization of economics of scale in electric power generation

C Company

G G



　




• Country of Japan

　

Population （ FY2004 ）： 128 million Total land ： 377,899.2 km2

Total electric energy sales (FY2003): 834 TWhTotal system peak load (FY2003): 167 GW

Yearly average temperature * (Tokyo) ： 15.9℃Average summer temperature * （ Tokyo, August) ： 27.1℃Average winter temperature * （ Tokyo, January) ： 5.8℃* between FY1972 to FY2000


AC (500kV)AC (154kV ～ 275kV)DC Conversion station (FC, BTB, DC c/s)

Chugoku

KyushuShikoku

Kansai

Chubu

Hokuriku

Tokyo

Tohoku

Hokkaido

60Hz 　　 50Hｚ

• Japan's Tie Line between Regions



• Demand Japan is hot in summer and cold in winter. Because of such meteorological conditions, the

seasonal variations in electric demand are large, and the load curves are very steep. For this reason, load factors are low.

The load curves of Japan's electric power companies basically look alike except for those load curves of Hokkaido Electric Power Co., but they slightly differ, depending on the difference in demand industry structures.

• Power source portfolio There are almost no energy resources other than water power in Japan, and Japan's electric

power companies have constructed power source portfolios that allow for both energy security and cost efficiency. For this reason, the contents of the power source portfolio are similar but slightly different from company to company.

• Structures of transmission networks Japan is a vertically long and narrow country composed of four major islands, and the

interconnection systems between electric power companies are skewer-shaped (they are DC connected not to make loop systems).

The frequency of electricity is different between the eastern part and western part of Japan (50 Hz in the eastern part and 60 Hz in the western part).



• Power source portfolio

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

KyushuShikoku

Chugoku

KansaiHokuriku

ChubuTokyo

Tohoku

Hokkaido

(the result of 2004)

Hydroelectric power

Thermal power

Nuclear power

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Denmark

Finland

Norway

Sweden


Hydroelectric powerThermal powerNuclear powerRenewable energy


• Example of difference in daily demand curve

　（ Tokyo Electric Power Company vs France ） Demand curve on the day of yearly maximum demand

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

Normalized demand

Tokyo(2001/7/24)

France(2001/12/17)



• Comparison of yearly load factor • Yearly load factor

Load factor ＝ P×TS

The result of 2003, except Germany

59.8%58.8%

Tokyo Electric Power Company

Chubu Electric Power Company

Kansai Electric Power Company 57.0%

Germany 77.2%France 66.4%England 67.0%

Total demand

（ Total area ） S

Time T(= one year)

peak demand P



　



• Pre-liberalization structure of electric power industry

Power generation

Retail business

Consumer

Transmission networks



Technological background of liberalization – Due to advances in power-generation technology, such as gas turbines,

gas turbine combined-cycle systems, economy of scale does not necessarily work in power generation.

Liberalization of the Japanese power market– Regulations on new entries into power generation and retail business is

eliminated and the principle of competition is introduced.– The monopoly in transmission, in which economy of scale is retained,

remains, but transmission networks are made accessible to users.– From global perspective, form of the post-liberalization power market

is divided into Pool system and Third party access (TPA) market. Japan adopted TPA market.

• The liberalization of the power market



• Liberalized power market

Third party-access (TPA) market– A system in which third parties other than

electric utilities transmit power using electric utilities ' networks.

– Retailers ensure supply capacity, consistent with their demand curves, with their own power sources or through wholesale power transactions with other power suppliers.

– Example

Germany ， France, Japan, etc.

Consumer

W company

X electric utilities

Z company

Power Producer

Z company

Y company

X electric utilities

Retailer

X

electric utilities (network sector)



• Transactions in the TPA market In most cases, a power exchange exists, and there are both transactions

through the exchange and bilateral transactions between counterparties.

Industry firms including power producers and retailers participate in the exchange voluntarily, and conduct transactions to sell or buy electricity.

The exchange publishes agreed prices as market prices.

Power ExchangeInternal procurement

Power Producer

Retailer

Power Producer

Power Producer

Power Producer

Power Producer

Retailer RetailerRetailerRetailer


Electric utility


Power producer

liberalized （ the expansion of liberalization ）

Electric utilities （ network sector ）

Consumer

（ Power generation）

PPS

PPS

Other electric utilities

Other electric utilities

Electric Power Exchange

April 2005 ～March 2000～March 2005

Electric utilities （ network sector ）

Consumer

（ Power generation）

(Retail)

PPS

PPS

Power producer

regulated liberalized

Power producer

(Retail)

regulated



　



• Discussions on the liberalization of the electric power started in the early 1990. Underlying the discussions are an increasing demand for eliminating

Japan's high cost structure and differences between domestic and overseas prices of electricity and a trend for the deregulation of the telecommunications and financial sectors.

• 1995 Regulations on new entries into wholesale electric business were

liberalized and competition was introduced.

• 2000 Competition was introduced into retail business targeting 2000 kW or

larger customers (about 30% of all customers in terms of kWh energy). New entrants (newly established electricity supply firms (PPS)) use

networks through transmission services provided by electric utilities .



Expansion of liberalization of the retail power market: The liberalization is expanded to 50 kW or larger customers (about 60% of all customers in terms of kWh energy) → Discussion whether the liberalization should be expanded to all customers is scheduled in 2007.

With the TPA-type market maintained, fairness and transparency is ensured when third parties (new entrants) use networks owned by electric utilities .

− Establishment of the Electric Power System Council of Japan (ESCJ)− Conduct regulations imposed on electric utilities

A system to facilitate new entrants to procure power sources is introduced− Development of a wholesale electric power exchange

→JEPX

• Liberalization after April 2005



　



Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) was founded as a limited liability intermediate corporation * on November 28, 2003, based on the purports of the report “Framework of the Desirable Future Electricity Industry System" presented by the Electricity Industry Committee of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry.

This corporation is aimed at fostering the interests common to the partners thereof by opening and operating the wholesale electric power exchange that mediates spot transactions and forward transactions of electricity.

* Intermediate corporation: a group that is not aimed at making profits but is aimed at increasing the interests common to its members (partners).

• JEPX Profile (1/2)



Electric utility 9 companies

Wholesale electric company 1 company

Power Producer and Supplier (new entrants)

9 companies

Others 2 companies

[Partners] (those who operate the corporation and are contributors of the fund)

21 companies (August 2005)

[Trading members] (participant in transaction)

[Information members] (those members who only peruse the information on transactions)

29 (including corporations and individuals)

31 companies (September 2006)

Electric utility 9 companies

Wholesale electric company 1 company

Power Producer and Supplier (new entrants)

15 companies

Others 6 companies

• JEPX Profile (2/2)



• Structure of JEPX

General meeting of partners

Board of directors (10) Auditors (2)

Dispute settlement committee (5)

To discuss the operation of the exchange such as the establishment, revision and abolition of the articles of incorporation, and the line of products.

To supervise the actions taken by traders in the market to ensure fair transactions.

To verify the amount of input into this exchange by electric utilities for a certain period (two years) after the opening of the exchange to ensure the liquidity of market.

To arbitrate and settle disputes between members.

Administration office

Liquidity assurance committee (5)

Market monitoring committee (5)

Operational committee (21)



JEPX is aimed at realizing the following purposes by operating a wholesale electric power exchange.

To create price indicators that can be helpful in judging a risk of investment in power sources.

To provide an arena where excess and deficiency of power sources can be adjusted through transactions between electric power companies.

Individual firms have their respective load curves of different shapes. Therefore, it will be possible to use power sources more efficiently overall, if they make up for excess or deficiency of supply capacity with each other through the exchange.

To form market prices of electric power, which reflect demand-and-supply positions that fluctuate with seasons and time periods.

• Purposes of JEPX



Japan Electric Power Exchange is a place to match the demand for and supply of electricity as physical goods. It does not assume such transactions and settlements by means of financial instruments.

Place to Trade Electricity as Physical goods

JEPX provides the following three nationwide markets.

Spot Market The place to trade the electricity that will be delivered on the following day.

Forward Fixed-Form Market The place to trade the electricity that will be delivered after a certain period of time.

Forward Bulletin Board MarketThe place to make transactions by freely posting messages on the bulletin board.

• Policy of transactions


• Markets


[Supervision of Transactions and Penalty]Transactions are supervised based on the rules of the exchange to avoid any unfair transaction. Penalties are imposed on any violation of the rules.

1. Prevention of market manipulation

Unfair transactions such as price manipulation, interference in transactions, occupation of interconnection lines, etc. are prevented.

3. Ensuring of stable electricity supply

To ensure the stable supply of electricity, places of power generation and delivery are specified for every transaction.

2. Ensuring of liquidity (vitalization of transactions)

The ensuring of liquidity is aimed at improving the usability for traders. It is also effective to ensure operating revenues of the exchange and to prevent market manipulation.

• Principles of Transactions



Each member is required to make all transactions respective markets through JEPX's computer system. The notices of acceptance of solicitations for bids and that of contracts concluded are provided by the computer system. For participation, each member is required to create an environment to access the Internet.

JEPX's computer system and access image

JEPX's computer system

JEPX

System on the member side

Use of the screen provided by JEPX

API connection

Web connection

Member

• Way of Transaction



　

5. JEPX Markets


Products

・ In proportion to 30 minutes as the minimum unit of balancing and measuring, 48 products are traded every 30 minutes in 24 hours a day.

・ The minimum volume of bid is set at 1MW in increments of 30 minutes (= 500 kWh).

Way of Matching

Compensation due to Generator Malfunction

・ Matching is conducted by a single price auction. ・ When tie line are congested, the market is split, and matching is conducted in each

split market.

・ JEPX mediates a buyer's claim to be paid by a seller for damages in case the seller's generator causes a malfunction. For this purpose, a "seller (power generator)" and a "buyer (power supplier)" are matched with each other on the system.

① Spot Market

5. JEPX Markets


• Single Price Auction （ 1/2 ）

MW

\/MWh

MW

\/MWh

MW

\/MWh

MW

\/MWh

Seller's respective curves that represent selling bids

Composite selling curve

Composite buying curve

Buyer's respective curves that represent buying bids

5. JEPX Markets


Bids from participants

Price

Volume

Agreed price

Aggregate

The volume to be "sold" and that to be "bought" are matched at a certain price.

"Selling" bid data

"Buying" bid data

When tie line are congested, the market is divided, and matching is conducted in each split market.

• Single Price Auction （ 2/2 ）

5. JEPX Markets


•Market Splitting (1/2)

System price P

Composite selling

Composite buying

3 MW flows from Region 1 to Region 2, which exceed the interconnection line's 1 MW capacity.

0 MW bought

MW

\/MWh

P

3

MW

\/MWh

P3 MW sold

3

Region 1

MW

\/MWh

P

3 MW bought

3

3MW

\/MWh

P0 MW sold

Region 2

5. JEPX Markets


MW

\/MWh

P2

1 MW sold

1

As a result, the price in Region 1 becomes P1 (<P).

The price in Region 2 becomes P2 (>P).

MW

\/MWh

P11 MW bought

1MW

\/MWh2 MW bought

2

P2

MW

\/MWh

P1

2 MW sold

2

The price is adjusted to reduce the amount of electricity that flows to its interconnection line capacity of 1 MW by decreasing the price in Region 1 and increasing the price in Region 2.

•Market Splitting (2/2)Region 1 Region 2

5. JEPX Markets


• The forward fixed-form market deals with electricity transactions to be delivered in one month or one week period starting in two weeks later to one year ahead.

• The forward fixed-form market has four products depending on the period and pattern of electricity delivery: “Monthly 24-hour type product,” “Weekly 24-hour type product,” “Monthly daytime type product,” and “Weekly daytime type product.”

• Monthly 24-hour type product

• Monthly daytime type product

Weekly products which deals with one week electricity delivery starting two weeks later to nine weeks later are also available.

Delivers certain amount of electricity constantly for one month.

Delivers electricity between 8 a.m. and 10 p.m. on all delivery days except Saturday, Sunday, national holiday and holidays designated by PX.

8 a.m. 22 p.m.

･･･No delivery on Saturday & Sunday

8 a.m. 22 p.m. 8 a.m. 22 p.m.

② Forward Fixed-Form Market

・ Matching is done by continuous sessions.・ Participants are allowed to set terms and conditions of authorizing credits for other participants.

5. JEPX Markets


8.01 yen7.78 yen7.77 yen7.03 yen6.89 yen6.66 yen6.50 yen 300ＭＷ200ＭＷ20ＭＷ 20ＭＷ

35ＭＷ45ＭＷ500ＭＷ

In the case of an ordinary continuous session, the bidding data displayed in boldface type are immediately contracted and excluded from the session. In the case of JEPX, such data might remain in the session because of restrictions on interconnection lines, etc.

New bid

Selling: 6.50 yen, 30 MW

Selling Buying

New bids are matched with higher priority given to prices, after the conditions of credit authorization and the possibility of interconnection transmission are checked.

• Matching in Continuous Session at JEPX

5. JEPX Markets


Nippon Electric Power Co.

July 1, 2006 – August 31, 2006

Phone No. 03-XXXX-XXXX (contact Sato)

"Fixed-price + as-used price" type

Up to 17 MW, 1,700 MWh

Area: Tokyo

Selling

kW price: 1,000 yen per kW kWh price: 10.00 yen per kWh

Special remarks

Image of bulletin board (in case of sale of power)

Some room is left for the parties to negotiate with each other.

③ Bulletin Board

5. JEPX Markets


　




Total contract volume•Outline of Transactions Made to Date (1/4)

　 Spot transactions （ kWh)

Forward transactions (kWh) Total (kWh)

Apr 14,224,000 364,000 14,588,000

May 22,598,500 8,260,000 30,858,500

Jun 28,731,500 3,150,000 31,881,500

Jul 17,442,000 1,890,000 19,332,000

Aug 39,762,000 0 39,762,000

Sep 64,086,000 0 64,086,000

Oct 104,469,500 7,200,000 111,669,500

Nov 123,574,000 336,000 123,910,000

Dec 175,928,500 51,796,000 227,724,500

Jan 168,496,000 74,518,000 243,014,000

Feb 117,285,500 2,912,000 120,197,500

Mar 61,652,500 0 61,652,500

Total 938,250,000 150,426,000 1,088,676,000

FY2005



Total contract volume•Outline of Transactions Made to Date (2/4)

　 Spot transactions（ kWh)Forward transactions

(kWh)Total (kWh)

Apr 76,301,000 1,540,000 77,841,000

May 115,465,000 728,000 116,193,000

Jun 127,014,500 49,000,000 176,014,500

Jul 176,701,000 52,360,000 229,061,000

Aug 172,670,500 0 172,670,500

Sep 104,189,000 70,000 104,259,000

Total 772,341,000 103,698,000 876,039,000

FY2006


•Outline of Transactions Made to Date (3/4)Average volume of spot transactions contracted per day and average system price


Average volume contracted per day (10,000 kWh per

day)

Average system price (yen per kWh)

24-hour average Daytime average (8:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.)

Peak time average (1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.)

Apr 49 8.06 8.52 8.83

May 73 7.69 8.55 8.90

Jun 96 8.53 9.72 10.71

Jul 56 8.33 10.48 12.07

Aug 128 8.47 10.89 13.19

Sep 214 7.70 9.64 10.97

Oct 337 7.82 9.03 9.55

Nov 412 8.44 9.29 9.43

Dec 568 11.03 12.08 12.11

Jan 544 13.95 15.50 15.35

Feb 419 14.09 16.09 16.38

Mar 199 8.60 9.71 10.29

Overall 258 9.37 10.77 11.47

FY2005


•Outline of Transactions Made to Date (4/4)Average volume of spot transactions contracted per day and average system price


Average volume contracted per day (10,000 kWh per

day)

Average system price (yen per kWh)

24-hour average Daytime average (8:00 a.m. to 10:00 p.m.)

Peak time average (1:00 p.m. to 4:00 p.m.)

Apr 254 8.24 9.26 10.07

May 372 8.22 9.66 10.98

Jun 423 8.23 9.66 10.99

Jul 570 8.01 9.97 11.79

Aug 557 9.03 11.57 14.45

Sep 347 8.45 10.52 12.30

Overall 422 8.37 10.11 11.78

FY2006


•Changes in Weekly Average of Contract Volume of Spot Transactions and System Prices


Weekly average of daily contract volume and system price

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

16.00

18.00

20.00

From 2-

Apr16-

Apr30-

Apr14-

May28-

May11-

J un25-

J un 9- Jul

23-J ul

6-Aug

20-Aug 3-S

ep17-

Sep 1-Oct15-

Oct29-

Oct12-

Nov26-

Nov10-

Dec24-

Dec 7- Jan

21-J an 4-F

eb18-

Feb 4-Mar18-

Mar1-A

pr15-

Apr29-

Apr13-

May27-

May10-

J un24-

J un 8- Jul

22-J ul

5-Aug

19-Aug 2-S

ep16-

Sep

（￥/kWh）

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9（million kWh/day）

Weekly average of contract volumePeak time averageDaytime average 24-hour average


•Changes in Contract Volume of Spot Transactions and Prices (Daily Basis)


Daily contract volume by day and system price

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

05/4

05/5

05/6

05/7

05/8

05/9

05/10

05/11

05/12 06/

106/

206/

306/

406/

506/

606/

706/

806/

9

(￥/kWh)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12(million kWh/ day)

Contract volume24-hour average Daytime average Peak time average


•Outline of Results of Forward Fixed-Form Transactions (by Product, FY)


Total volume of contracts concluded

The number of contracts concluded: 28

Total volume of contracts:150,426,000 kWh

Price(Ave.) ：

13.40 yen/kWh

Daytime type 24hour type

The number

Total volume of contracts

Price (Ave.)

The number


Price (Ave.)

Jun 5 7,280,000 11.96 －－－Jul 3 3,150,000 16.33 －－－

Aug 1 1,890,000 15.40 －－－Sep 1 1,344,000 13.75 －－－Oct －－－－－－Nov －－－ 1 7,200,000 8.40

Dec 1 336,000 11.71 －－－Jan 3 18,676,000 12.87 1 29,760,000 11.05

Feb 9 44,758,000 14.06 1 3,360,000 10.62

Mar 1 2,912,000 16.40 1 29,760,000 14.05

Total 24 80,346,000 13.80 4 70,080,000 11.03

Monthly FY2005


•Outline of Results of Forward Fixed-Form Transactions (by Product, FY2006)





Price(Ave.) ：

12.23 yen/kWh


The number


Price (Ave.)

The number


Price (Ave.)

Apr －－－－－－May 1 1,540,000 12.26 －－－Jun 1 728,000 12.20 －－－

Jul －－－－－－Aug －－－－－－Sep －－－－－－

Total 2 2,268,000 12.23 －－－

Monthly FY2006

As of 30-Sep


•Outline of Results of Forward Fixed-Form Transactions (by Product, FY)





Price(Ave.) ：

12.69 yen/kWh


The number


Price (Ave.)

The number


Price (Ave.)

07/01 ～ 07/07

- - - 1 10,080,000 10.50

07/08 ～ 07/14

- - - 4 31,920,000 10.95

07/15 ～ 07/21

- - - 3 16,800,000 11.05

07/22 ～ 07/28

2 14,000,000 17.97 4 28,560,000 13.68

10/14 ～10/20 1 70,000 12.21 - - -

Total 3 14,070,000 16.05 12 87,360,000 11.85

Weekly FY2006

As of 30-Sep


Comparative table of Electric Power Exchange

Powernext

（ France ）

EEX

（ Germany ）NordPool

（ Northern Europe ）

PJM

（ USA ）JEPX

（ Japan ）

Form of organization Private limited company Joint-stock corporation Private limited company

Private limited company

Limited liability intermediate corporation

Listed goods Spot ， Future Spot ， Future, Options Spot, Future ， Forward, Options

Spot, Real-time Spot ， Forward

Member

（ Size of member in Spot market ）

Power generator, Retailer ， Marketer ，Major customers

（ 88 Members ）

Power generator ， Retailer ， Marketer ， Major customers

（ 150 Members ）

Power generator ， Retailer ， Marketer ， Major customers

（ 339 Members ）

Power generator ，Retailer ， Marketer, etc.

（ 428 Members ）

Power generator ，Retailer ，Broker, etc.

(31 Members)

Capital

（ Major partner ）About 1.2 billion yen

（ Exchange industry firms ， NW operator ， Power generator ， Retailer ）

unknown

（ Exchange industry firm ， financial institution ， Electricity industry ， Local government, etc ）

About 0.8 billion yen （ Transmission network industry firms, etc. ）

About 0.1 billion yen

（ Members of PJM ）

1 billion yen

（ 21 partners of JEPX ）

Entrance fee 3.3 million yen － 0.45 million yen 0.18 million yen 0.1 million yen

Annual fee 3.9 million yen 1.6 million yen 1.6 million yen 0.6 million yen 0.5 million yen

Selling and buying fees （ spot transaction ）

0.011 yen/kWh

（ including clearing fee)

0.004 yen/kWh 0.004 yen/kWh unknown 0.03 yen/kWh


Volume of Transactions Predicted at the Time of Solicitation to Fund (2004)

The amount of transactions estimated by a research agency last year based on a questionnaire to the participants is shown below. Though the evaluation only four months after the commencement of transactions seems to be premature, the changes in the volume of transactions to date are very close to that prescribed by Standard Scenario.

Standard Scenario: 360 million kWh (the average volume of transactions per day is 1 million kWh) in the first year, and the volume is expected to reach 4 billion kWh per year (the break-even point) in the sixth year.

取引量推移予測

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1年目 2年目 3年目 4年目 5年目 6年目 7年目 8年目

(kW

h)取

引所

経由

取引

量億

標準シナリオ

悲観シナリオ( 33% )下方値

Predicted changes in the volume of transactions

Standard Scenario

Pessimistic Scenario(33% downward value)

Vol

ume

of tr

ansa

ctio

ns b

y w

ay o

f the

exc

hang

e (1

00 m

illio

n kW

h)

1st year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year 5th year 6th year 7th year 8th year

Actual Volume


Short History of the Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX)

Date Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) Electricity Industry Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee on Natural Resources and Energy

February 2003 Report on the “Framework of the Desirable Future Electricity Industry System”

July 2003 Inauguration of the Preparatory Committee for Establishment (18 companies)

September 2003 　 First explanatory meeting for participating companies held

October 2003 　 Second explanatory meeting for participating companies held

November 2003 Registration for incorporation (21 companies)

December 2003 Interim report on the “Detailed Design of the Desirable Future Electricity Industry System”

March 2004 　 Third explanatory meeting for participating companies held

May 2004 Report on the “Detailed Design of the Desirable Future Electricity Industry System”

June 2004 　 Fourth explanatory meeting for participating companies held

August 2004 Relocation and incorporation (location: Shibaura, Minato-ku)

September 2004 　 Fifth explanatory meeting for participating companies held

January 2005 Establishment of transaction rules completed

April 2005 Commencement of transactions

The Japan Electric Power Exchange (JEPX) was established following a report presented by the Electricity Industry Subcommittee of the Advisory Committee on Natural Resources and Energy in February 2003, which recommended the development of a market for nationwide wholesale electricity transactions.

Documents

October 30th, 2006 Japan Electric Power Exchange Keiichi Hohki