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International
Olefins use m Europe continues rapid climb Survey of EEC nations pegs 1977 use of ethylene, propylene, and butadiene at 21 million metric tons, 75% more than last year
Consumption of olefins throughout the European Economic Community is slated to continue to rise rapidly—but not quite so rapidly as in the recent past. In 1977 EEC will use more than 21 million metric tons of C2, C3, and C4 olefins, 75% more than were consumed last year and a quadrupling of usage since 1967. Demand this year is expected to be about 13.9 million metric tons. Meanwhile, naphtha cracking facilities likely are to keep pace with demand, so that four years from now EEC's effective installed capacity for these olefins will have reached at least 23.7 million metric tons a year.
This is the picture painted in a survey prepared by the European Council of Chemical Manufacturers' Federations (CEFIC), the organization's first since it was set up late last year by the Association of European Chemical Industry Groups. CEFIC, headquartered in Brussels, now has 15 members—the chemical industry associations of the nine EEC countries plus those of Austria, Finland, Norway, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland.
Ironically, the CEFIC report comes at a time when western Europe is facing a cutback in its oil supply from the Arab countries (C&EN, Nov. 5, page 10). If the current embargo on oil deliveries to the Netherlands continues, for example, the consequences for the European petrochemical industry could
be quite serious; a sizable portion of the crude oil and petroleum products needed by West Germany, Belgium, France, and the U.K. reach them by way of Rotterdam.
A number of interesting points emerges from CEFIC's olefins report. For example, ethylene consumption is expected to grow by 11% a year through 1977, just half of its annual growth rate between 1967 and 1972. Likewise, propylene's growth will slow down from the 16.5% yearly rate between 1967 and 1972 to 12% from 1973 to 1977, and butadiene's from 15% to 10%.
To meet higher demand, installed naphtha cracker capacity will have to go up from this year's level of 10.8 million metric tons of ethylene to nearly 14.3 million metric tons in 1977. This will entail bringing on stream in the EEC seven large crackers, each with a nominal capacity of 500,000 metric tons of ethylene, annually in the next four years. Whether petrochemical construction firms, whose order books already are fairly stretched, can cope with this level of business remains to be seen. If they can't, and demand for olefins keeps in line with the projected pattern, a shortage could easily develop in Europe.
Another point is that the ethylene yield of naphtha cracking itself is increasing. For every 100 metric tons of naphtha cracked in 1967, 23 metric tons of ethylene were produced. This amount moved up to 24.6 metric tons last year and likely will increase to 24.9 metric tons by 1977. At the same time the proportion of coproduct propylene to ethylene has slipped from 66% in 1967 to 58% last year. This relative balance is expected to remain through 1977.
In addition, the efficiency of naphtha crackers in Europe is expected to im
prove. Between 1967 and 1972, crackers were capable of producing 85 to 90% of their designed ethylene output. The percentage probably will rise to 95 or 97% by 1977 through the solving of many of the design and operating problems encountered with large plants.
Moreover, some 90% of designed ethylene output capacity will be utilized by 1977, compared with about 75% last year, CEFIC believes. The picture for propylene also should improve from the 72.5% of designed output capacity utilization in 1972 to about 87% in 1977. The butadiene situation likely will remain unchanged from the current level of 70 to 75%, however.
The CEFIC olefins working party, headed by John Donn of the U.K.'s Chem-Industry Association, confined its investigation to the six EEC countries that have practically all the olefins production within the community: Belgium, France, West Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the U.K. The aim is "to make available supply/-demand comparisons for the increasingly unified EEC market as a whole."
CEFIC hopes that by providing companies a framework within which they can make individual expansion plans, the wide swings between overcapacity and scarcity that have plagued the chemical industry in the past might be avoided. This is a somewhat delicate area, however. The EEC commissioners generally are opposed to sharing market information, arguing that such action violates provisions of the Rome Treaty. Consequently, CEFIC adopted stringent ground rules to keep data confidential. Even so, the olefins working party encountered some problems. It notes that "Some subsidiaries of U.S. companies have been unwilling to provide figures, mainly for U.S. antitrust reasons."
Growing use of olefins in EEC nations calls for increased capacity Millions of metric tons
7 1 ' ! — ^ ; Capacity^,'
ionsumption
2.5r-
2.0»-
1.51.
1.0L
0,
BUtadlen* Capacity J
Consumption
1967 68 69 70 ~71" 72 73 74 75 76 77 1 9 6 7 6 8 6 9 7 0 7 1 7 2 7 3 7 4 7 5 7 6 7 7 1967 68 69 70 7Γ~72 73 74 75 76 77 Sources: European Council of Chemical Manufacturers' Federations, European Economic Community
12 C&EN Nov. 12,1973