On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process

8/13/2019 On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process

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On Scientific DecisionMaking Process

Group 1 Team 3



How Can DecisionBeing Scientific?

thinking on

How

Military

ec s on a ng rocess e ng

Scientific



AIM: to determine how to make

SCOPE OF PRESENTATIONTheoretical frameworkThe scientific Structure of MDMP

and its drawbacks

Conclusions





The scientific

Structure

of

DMP and its drawbacks

InputInformation

Fog and Friction

Decision Neurosis – Emotions

Subject ofDecisionFRICTION

Maker

Output ofGroup Think - Subjectivity

FRICTION

InstructionsMicromanagement



The scientific Structure of MDMP and its drawbacks

is given by the uncertainty ofthe actual forces in the

Develop a scientific IPB. Notgreat amount of information

The Foga e e suc as enemy,

allies, civilians, armed

groups.

means e er . coube an “Information

Overload” Technology

products

In this step the friction is Is not necessary to be a

The Friction

given to commander in otherwords, WT. . . . the senior

.sense when you give morethan one task, give priority

should do!!!!! .

could help if make easy theunderstanding of the task.



The scientific

Structure

of

MDMP and its drawbacks

Drawbacks Description SolutionMilitary organization could Scientific leaders’ selection

Neurosis

people, when becamecommanders, they could bevictims of co nitive

.against cognitive dissonance

dissonance

The human brain decidemore b emotions than

The technology could help toshow onl the critical

mo ons reason information to focus therationality in such decision.



Cognitive dissonance is anuncomfortable feeling caused byholding conflict ing ideassimultaneously. The theory ofcognitive dissonance proposes

that people have a motivational.

do this by changing theirattitudes, beliefs, and actions.

justifying, blaming, and denying.It is one of the most influentialand extensivel studied theoriesin social psychology.



Cognitive dissonance is anuncomfortable feeling caused byholding conflict ing ideassimultaneously. The theory ofcognitive dissonance proposes

that people have a motivational.

do this by changing theirattitudes, beliefs, and actions.

justifying, blaming, and denying.It is one of the most influentialand extensivel studied theoriesin social psychology.



MOVIE: a brid etoo far

http://www.megaupload.com/?d=4ZB2F23S&w=696&h=

359



The scientific

Structure

of

MDMP and its drawbacks

Drawbacks Description SolutionIt is the general designation Again the training and

undesiredeffects ofthe team

phenomenon when a groupshould develop a decisionmakin rocess. We onl

.sociology we can build upgroups that think in differentwa s. The technolo could

work talk about the Group Thinkand Abilene Paradox

help to get information and tolink this groups.

The COA is not related b The COA should beSubjectivityin COA

the Mission or in notconfronted against the ECOA

considered as hypothesisand should be analyzed andverified by experimentation



The scientific Structure of MDMP and its drawbacks

Subordinate leaders don’tcarry out orders in the

Auftragstaktik : is aphilosophy of MDMP. It

’

Friction(again..)

wait for orders under

unexpected circumstances or

education by pedagogies

that enhance initiative,

orders when the situation haschanged

responsibility. Also impliedthe confidence between highand lower level leaders.

Micromana

The information advantage isnullified when the Cdr tries to

The technology should befocused in the future threats.

gemen the chain of command. subordinates’ s AOR of

leaders are their business



Intuitive Analytical ArtUnderstandEx lanation

ScienceKnowledgeConcrete

Divergences Assumptions

PerceptionConcepts

ObservationConvergence

FactsTasks

UncertaintyCertainly

Good planners balanced betweenanalysis and intuition

Why? How?

The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuitivemeans, so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them

The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuit ive means,so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them instead of theother. The rationally tools should be well balanced with the intuit ive

.with the intuitive tools.

More facts more rational, less facts more intuit ive

.More facts more rational, less facts more intuitive.Technology should mean t iming and get into the Enemy’s OODA loop.



Intuitive Analytical ArtUnderstandEx lanation

ScienceKnowledgeConcrete A good plan violently executed NOW is

Divergences Assumptions

PerceptionConcepts

ObservationConvergence

FactsTasks

UncertaintyCertainlybetter than a perfect plan next week.

GEN GEORGE S. PATTON JR

Good planners balanced betweenanalysis and intuition

Why? How?

The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuitivemeans, so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them

The nature gives the human brain with analytical and intuit ive means,so is no reason to block and avoid to use one of them instead of theother. The rationally tools should be well balanced with the intuit ive

.with the intuitive tools.

More facts more rational, less facts more intuit ive

.More facts more rational, less facts more intuitive.Technology should mean t iming and get into the Enemy’s OODA loop.



The MDMP is a science and an artNo need large amount of information

we need timely and accurateintelligence.

The MDMP could be scientific if the

selection and training of leadersecame more sc ent c . ere

psychology and sociology are useful.The MDMP should trend to be

.absolutely scientific because thehuman nature.

,but don’t become a “ technoslave”



Trained and Scientific Scientific

Leaders IPB COA

Psychologicaland Scientific

Sociologicalshortcomings

MDMP

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On Scientific Military Decisionmaking Process