Osun State Election Monitor -

Osun Election Monitor 2014

Original version submitted: July 18th 2014

Executive Summary

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Project Platform – Osun State Election Monitor (July, 2014)

Executive Summary -1/2

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The APC currently and continues to dominate the political landscape in Osun State judging by its performance on all key indicators evaluated: it scored highest and also increased in rating on first mention, sympathy, and voting intention.

Not only is APC currently the most preferred party in Osun State, it has largely retained this goodwill from way back in the past. It was the party that most people claimed to have voted for in the last election and it is still the party with the highest chances of winning the election again. More importantly, the gap by which it outperforms opposition continue to widen and more convincing in the current survey.

Basically, APC top-of-mind awareness increased from 75% to 78%, followed at a very far distance by PDP with 18% -recorded a 3% drop from 21%. Labour still maintains third rank with a negligible 1%.

Also, electorate choice for APC is now 70%-boosted by 1% increment, 19% will vote for PDP- affected by a decline of 3% and electorate choice for Labour remains 1%.

Repeat of APC high chance to win in all the LGAs seem to play out again in the next election, APC is poised to repeat this feat except in Ife Central and Ife East; the PDP seemed well positioned to win these two LGAs. The Labour Party’s weakness is imminent across all the LGAs.

While Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola is more known than his party Senator Iyiola Omisore is less known than his party. Top-of-mind awareness of Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola increased to 85% (from 79%), affinity increased from 72% to 74% and chances of being reelected increased from 71% to 73%. Conversely, it is a tale of decline for the closest candidate to him-top-of-mind awareness of Senator Iyiola Omisore toppled to 13% (from 19%), affinity fell to 19% (from 21% ) and chances of being elected declined to 19% (from 21%)

The incumbent chances of being reelected remains same

across the LGAs except in Ife Central and Ife East. The incumbent’s chances of re-election remains high and leads his closest rival by a good margin of 54%-an increment of 4% over last survey.


Executive Summary -2/2

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Main deciding factor of whom to vote for continues to hinged on the candidacy – the candidate’s personality (50%) comes as strongest influencer of candidate acceptance, followed by the track record of the contestant (38%). Relevance of party platform (12%) seem to further diminishes and weaker in influencing candidate acceptance.

This is a reconfirmation of the reasons trend is reaffirmed by the reasons cited for preferring individual candidates; supporters of the incumbent hinge their decision largely on ‘has idea to move the state forward’, ‘competency & capability’ and ‘his track record’.

And as never before, confidence level in the umpire-INEC’s ability to deliver, in the Osun State elections have drastically reduced, and now tend towards average. It has dropped to from 67% to 57%


5

Awareness of political parties – First mention

Base: All respondents (2940)

Q: When you think about political parties registered in Nigeria, which ones comes to your mind first?

%


Phase I Phase II

%

Base: All respondents (2940) Base: All respondents (1079)

APC continue to lead top of mind awareness, increased to 78%. Spontaneous aware of PDP dipped by 3%. The third contender remains almost unknown at 1%.

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Political Party Most Sympathetic to

Q:Which party are you most sympathetic to?



%

Phase I Phase II

%


Voter sympathy is expressed more firmly in favour of the APC, more than 2/3 voters express sympathy to APC compare to 1/5 voters who show sympathy to PDP

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Connection with Political Parties


Strongly Disagree

Strongly Agree

1 2 3 4 5

Q. I am going to read out a statement. Please indicate to what extent you agree or disagree with it when it comes to the political parties in Osun State and Nigeria. As I read out each one please tell me to what extent you agree or disagree that "This Political Party connects with Who I am


While the affinity of the electorates towards All Progressive Congress (APC) increase by 4%, Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) fail to maintain its connection with the People-declined slightly by 1% to 26%.

Phase I: ‘Party connects with who I am’

Score : 4 and 5

Phase II: ‘Party connects with who I am’

Score : 4 and 5

Strongly Disagree

Strongly Agree

1 2 3 4 5

% %

4.1

2.4

1.7

1.9

0

2.5

1.2

1.9

1.8

4.0

2.6

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.8

Mean Scores

Mean Scores


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Overall Assessment of Political Parties


Poor Excellent

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Q. When you take into account everything you look for in a Political Party, how would you rate..


8.1

4.7

3.2

4.3

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

0

Mean Scores

Overall, All Progressive Congress (APC) enjoys and maintains a comfortable assessment over other parties

%

Phase II: Above Average Assessment

Score : 7 to 10

8.1

5.0

4.2

2.1

3.6

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.6

Mean Scores

Poor Excellent

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Phase I: Above Average Assessment

Score : 7 to 10

%


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Peoples’ Perception About APC


Overall, the electorates speak favourable about APC and have a positive perception towards the party. Adduced to be a grass root party, a party that has proven record of performance and party for the masses.

To which extent would you agree with these statements used to describe APC

Score : 4 and 5

Strongly Disagree

Strongly Agree

1 2 3 4 5

% 3.9

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.7

3

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7


Mean Scores

Favourable/Unfavourable Opinion of APC

Q: Overall would you say that your opinion of this party is favourable or unfavorable?........To which extent would you say you agree with the following statements that

have been used to describe APC

1

0

Party voted for; party will vote for - Governorship

Q: Which party did you vote for in the last governorship elections in Osun State? Which party do you intend to vote for in the next governorship elections in Osun State?

Voted last time Will vote for in 2014

% %


Phase I

Phase II



ACN-now called APC had a clear lead in the last election while PDP trailed at a very distant second position. The trend is set to repeat itself this year with a slightly added advantage for APC

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Awareness of candidates – First mention

Q: Which among the candidates that have declared their intention do you know of?


%

Phase I Phase II

%


Spontaneous awareness of Ogbeni Aregbesola seem to increase as party awareness increases, PDP top-of-mind awareness declined and still trail far behind APC

1

2

Attribute rating of candidates


Q: Based on what you know and/or what you have heard about……..how would you rate him on the following attributes?

Phase I

Phase II



The incumbent governor is highly rated and he continue to lead other candidates in all the stated attributes. Senator Omisore seem to drop marginally in all the stated attributes

1

3

Likely to speak favourably about



CANDIDATES

Not all likely

Not likely

Indifferent Likely Very Likely

1 2 3 4 5

%

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola 5 5 7 18 65

Senator Iyiola Omisore 7 17 22 17 18

Alhaji Fatai Akinbade 2 9 24 11 3

4.3

3.3

3.1

Mean Scores

Top Two boxes

Score : 4 and 5

Q: How likely are you to speak favourably about………………….to your friends and colleagues?

CANDIDATES

Not all likely

Not likely

Indifferent Likely Very Likely

1 2 3 4 5

%




4.3

2.5

1.1

Mean Scores

Top Two boxes

Score : 4 and 5

Phase I

Phase II


With a steady mean score of 4.3 the incumbent governor enjoy more favourable word-of-mouth among the electorates

1

4

How much candidates are personally likes



CANDIDATES

Dislike a lot

Dislike Neither like nor dislike

Like Like a lot

1 2 3 4 5

% Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola 5 4 8 19 63



4.3

3.4

3.2

Mean Scores

Top Two boxes

Score : 4 and 5

Likeability of the incumbent governor increased by 1% as he continues to enjoy more favourable word-of-mouth among the electorates , he is liked by more than 4 in 5 electorates

Q: How much do you personally like…………….?

CANDIDATES

Dislike a lot

Dislike Neither like nor dislike

Like Like a lot

1 2 3 4 5

%




4.3

3.2

3.1

Mean Scores

Top Two boxes

Score : 4 and 5

Phase I

Phase II


1

5

Disposition to candidates

The incumbent remains main voting choice for the voters. Voting chance for Senator Omisore declined by 2% and seem not to post a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race.


Q: Which among these candidates that you have mentioned do you have the most favourable opinion about? Which one candidate would you likely vote for or most want to see become governor of Osun State in the next election?


Favourable rating Voting choice

% %

Phase I

Phase II


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The incumbent remains main voting choice. Voting chance for Senator Omisore declined by 2% and seem not to post a threat to the incumbent’s chances of re-election as he remains firmly ahead of the race.

Voting choice: WV III

%

Candidate will vote for

1

6


Voting choice: WV IV-Phase I

%

Voting choice: WV 4-Phase II

%


1

7

Voting choice by LGA: Wave III

Q: Which one candidate would you likely vote for or most want to see become governor of Osun State in the next election?

Voter intention across most LGAs is heavily in favour of the incumbent.

Areas in green are LGAs of candidate’s relative strength


Base Ayedaade Ayedire Atakunmosa East

Atakunmosa West

Boluwaduro

Boripe Ede

North Ede

South Egbedore Ejigbo

Ife Central

Ife East

Ife East Area

(Modakeke)

Ife North

Ife South

Base 2844 116 58 58 58 58 116 58 58 58 116 145 145 29* 116 116 %

Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola

82 90 78 90 82 60 80 78 90 83 89 61 67 83 75 76

Senator Iyiola Omisore

7 1 16 5 12 5 7 3 7 4 25 14 6 16 15

Alhaji Fatai Akinbade

1 1 1

Don’t know 8 8 1 5 1 35 13 20 8 5 4 6 15 2 6 4

None 2 5 1 5 2 2 4 9 4 9 1 5

Base Ifedayo Ifelodun Ila Ilesa East

Ilesa West

Irepodun Irewole Isokan Iwo Obokun Odo Otin

Ola Oluwa

Olorunda Oriade Orolu

Osogbo

Base 2844 29 87 58 87 87 87 116 87 174 87 116 58 116 116 87 145 %


82 72 82 92 89 85 79 90 83 86 92 78 84 80 97 70 89


7 2 1 2 8 7 7 3 1 4 9 6 6 2


1 1 2 2 1 2 5

Don’t know 8 22 16 6 9 9 9 3 11 5 5 16 3 6 1 18 6

None 2 2 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 6 2 1 2


1

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Voting choice by LGA: Wave III Phase I

Q: Which one candidate would you likely vote for or most want to see become governor of Osun State in the next election?

Voter intention across most LGAs is heavily in favour of the incumbent except in Ife Central and Ife East.

Areas in green are LGAs of candidate’s relative strength


Base Ayedaade Ayedire Atakunmosa East

Atakunmosa West

Boluwaduro

Boripe Ede

North Ede

South Egbedore Ejigbo

Ife Central

Ife East

Ife East Area

(Modakeke)

Ife North

Ife South

Base 2940 128 61 51 53 58 114 73 68 58 108 152 153 92 125 117 %


71 78 74 94 74 55 67 68 81 88 71 47 35 77 63 69


21 13 15 4 17 34 28 19 13 5 11 51 62 23 30 30


1 1 3 2 2 1 1 1 2 1

Don’t know 5 2 7 2 6 9 3 7 1 5 15 3 1 7 1

None 1 5 2 2 2 4 3 2 1

Base Ifedayo Ifelodun Ila Ilesa East

Ilesa West

Irepodun Irewole Isokan Iwo Obokun Odo Otin

Ola Oluwa

Olorunda Oriade Orolu

Osogbo

Base 2940 40 79 51 86 88 112 123 88 148 103 112 61 105 120 83 130 %


71 60 84 67 93 86 69 79 80 58 83 62 56 90 88 67 83


21 22 13 24 6 7 19 14 15 25 12 29 7 5 12 17 8


1 1 2 2 2 2 1 2 23 8

Don’t know 5 15 6 7 9 1 2 16 5 5 15 6 6 8

None 1 2 3 2 1 2 5 1 3 1 1


1

7

Reasons I will vote for candidate

Base: Respondents who will vote for

each candidate Q: Why would you vote for…?

Past achievement, competency and capability of the incumbent is a very strong consideration for his supporters. He is now also perceive to have idea to move the state of Osun forward


Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola Senator Iyiola

Omisore Alhaji Fatai Akinbade

Phase I Phase II Phase I Phase II Phase I Phase II Base 2091 786 614 209 44 12*

%

Because he has the idea to move the state forward 12 55 49 52 70 83

Because of his party 11 13 28 33 16 17

He is educated so his ways of thinking will be different compared to other politicians

9 13 10 11

He will be able to fight corruption 12 9 10 15 30 17

He is the chosen man from God 6 10 3 6 5

He is more competent and capable 50 43 43 47 36 50

He is loved by the people 8 8 12 13 5 17

Because he is from my town 2 1 26 8 9

Because of what he has done already 48 41 12 11 14 17

Because of his experience, he has been in government for a long time

5 6 7 10 2 17

Because he is well tested and trusted 18 17 10 11 5 42

Because he is competent and capable 15 15 12 15 11 17

Because he has proven himself 13 18 5 4 2

Others 2 5 7 2 11

2

0

Influencer of voting choice

Q: What is more important to you on how to vote, is it the personality of the candidate or the party that fields him or the track record of the contestant?

Influence of candidate’s personality has increased to be main driver of voting choice. This is followed by the appeal of individual candidate’s track record. Influence of party platform continues to diminish.




% %

Influencer of choice : Phase II Influencer of choice : Phase I

2

1

Confidence in INEC…


Q: Using a scale of 1-5, please tell me how confident are you with the overall performance of INEC as an elections monitoring body/ in INEC’s ability to credibly conduct free and fair elections in Osun State on August 9th, 2014?

Confidence level in INEC’s ability to deliver, both as an umpire generally and in the Osun State elections have drastically reduced, and now tend towards average

% %

…as an umpire generally …as an umpire in Osun elections



Phase I

Phase II

Documents

Osun State Election Monitor -