Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Participation: Mark DeMaria (NESDIS), John Knaff (CSIRA/CSU), Buck Sampson (NRL/JTWC), Michelle Mainelli (NHC), Isaac Ginis (URI), Lynn Shan (RSMAS).Work supported by NOAA Research to Operations Program (Stan Wilson)
TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIALGustavo Jorge GoniNOAA/AOML/PHOD
2007 OCO MeetingJune 2007
www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/altimetry/tchp
Tropical Cyclones
15%
12%
12%
30%
12%7%
12%
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Shay et al, 2000Goni and Trinanes, 2002Lin et al, 2005Mainelli et al, 2007Goni et al, 2007
Gulf of Mexico: Opal (95), Bret (99), Ivan (04), Wilma, Rita, and Katrina (05)
Caribbean Sea: Mitch (98)
NW Pacific: Imbudo (03), Maemi (03)
Mozambique Channel: Eline (00), Hudah (00), Japhet (03)
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
o NOAA/AOML ASTEPAltimetry-derived Synthetic TEmperature Profiles. 0.2 degree resolution. Real-time. Daily fields. Public.
o NOAA/NCEP GODASGlobal Ocean Data Assimilation System. 1x1deg resolution. Monthly fields. Public.
o UM HYCOMHYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model. Very high spatial resolution. Delay-time.
o NOAA/NHC OHC2-layer scheme. Daily fields. Real-time.
ESTIMATES
o NOAA SHIPS Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme:. A statistical-synoptic model available to the National Hurricane Center since the mid-1990s (DeMaria and Kaplan, 1994). Runs with NHC OHC fields. Atlantic basin only.
o NOAA STIPSStatistical Typhoon Intensity Prediction Scheme. Runs with AOML ASTEP TCHP fields. All ocean basins except Atlantic Ocean.
o NOAA GFDLA triply-nested movable mesh primitive equation model developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (Bender et al, 1993), providing forecasts since the 1992 hurricane season. NHC OHC assimilated into model. Advanced version under development at URI.
TC INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
Impact of NHC/OHC Assimilation into GFDL Ocean Model
Observed
No Assimilation
With NHC OHC Assimilation
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
• Fields compare well on global scale• Comparison with in situ data shows roughly comparable errors
NCEP GODAS
AOML ASTEP
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
• GODAS and AOMLTCHP just before Hurricane Katrina (Aug 2005)• The Gulf warm core eddy is missing in the GODAS fields• Lack of mesoscale features in GODAS limits its utility for TC intensity forecasts
NCEP GODAS AOML ASTEP
RSM SH and EKEHYCOM Performance
2003-2006 Atlantic Forecast Skill
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Interval (hr)
Pe
rce
nt
Imp
rov
em
en
t o
ve
r C
LIP
ER
or
SH
IFO
R
SHIPS
GFDL
Intensity Forecast Model Comparison
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Interval (hr)
Per
cen
t Im
pro
vem
ent
Atlantic
West Pacific
Atlantic Sample (DT): 3072 SHIPS Model Forecasts 1995-2006West Pacific Sample (RT): 311 STIPS Model Forecasts 2006
Impact of TCHP Assimilation into SHIPS and STIPS models
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
Forecast Interval (hr)
Pe
rce
nt
Imp
rov
em
en
t
All Cases
Isabel 2003
Ivan 2004
Emily 2005
Katrina 2005
Rita 2005
Wilma 2005
Improvements in Operational SHIPS Forecasts from OHC for all Recent Cat 5 Hurricanes
Impact of NHC OHC Assimilation into SHIPS Atlantic model
Katrina, Rita, mean 5%Wilma 13%
Ivan 20%
NOAA-ASTEPAltimetry-derived Synthetic TEmperature Profiles
Altimetry-derivedTropical Cyclone Heat Potential
May 2006 conditions
May 2007 conditions
Global validation for May 30, 2007
SWIO Tropical Cyclone Hudah (2000)
Goni et al, 2007
Goni et al, 2007
SWIO Tropical Cyclone Hudah (2000)
0.3C/day cooling
0.15/day warming
Heat content mixed layer != heat content upper layer
Current Conditions
Altimetry Productswww.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/satprod
How well the ocean observing system is supporting this work ?
Altimetry = excellently
In-situ observations = good in some areas, bad in others (Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico)
Recommendations
Support the continuation of high precision altimetry missions – resolve mesoscale
Improve the observing system for tropical cyclone intensification studies
Thank you
