PC02 Increased Load Study Results

Katie Furse Iversen

October 3, 2016

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

PC02 Increased Load

• Purpose: Model & plan for a variety of futures

– 10% increase in load by area

Use: How does the system react to increased loads?

– Generation changes

– Utilization/congestion impacts

– Loads served & associated costs

2

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

10% Increase In Load by Area

3

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

1

17

0

33

9

50

8

67

78

46

10

15

11

84

13

53

15

22

16

91

18

60

20

29

21

98

23

67

25

36

27

05

28

74

30

43

32

12

33

81

35

50

37

19

38

88

40

57

42

26

43

95

45

64

47

33

49

02

50

71

52

40

54

09

55

78

57

47

59

16

60

85

62

54

64

23

65

92

67

61

69

30

70

99

72

68

74

37

76

06

77

75

79

44

81

13

82

82

84

51

86

20

WEC

C-W

ide

Lo

ad (

MW

)

Time (hrs)

2026CC V1.3 (CIPB) 2026CC V1.3 W/High Load (CIPB)

25% Increase In WECC Wide Load

4

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

0.0

20000.0

40000.0

60000.0

80000.0

100000.0

120000.0

140000.0

160000.0

180000.0

200000.0

11

73

34

5

51

7

68

98

61

10

33

12

05

13

77

15

49

17

21

18

93

20

65

22

37

24

09

25

81

27

53

29

25

30

97

32

69

34

41

36

13

37

85

39

57

41

29

43

01

44

73

46

45

48

17

49

89

51

61

53

33

55

05

56

77

58

49

60

21

61

93

63

65

65

37

67

09

68

81

70

53

72

25

73

97

75

69

77

41

79

13

80

85

82

57

84

29

86

01

Load

(M

W)

Time (hrs)

2026CC V1.3 2026CC V1.3 W/High Load

Annual Generation Change

5

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Conventional Hydro

Energy Storage

Steam - Coal

Steam - Other

Nuclear

Combined Cycle

Combustion Turbine

IC

Other

DG/DR/EE - Incremental

Biomass RPS

Geothermal

Small Hydro RPS

Solar

Wind

Annual Generation (Gwh)

2026 WECC V1.3 2026 PC2 V1.3

Generation Change by Subregion

6

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2 Case_1 Case_2

Alberta British Columbia Basin California Desert Southwest Northwest Rocky Mountain

Wind

Solar

Small Hydro RPS

Geothermal

DG/DR/EE - Incremental

Biomass RPS

Other

IC

Combustion Turbine

Combined Cycle

Nuclear

Steam - Other

Steam - Coal

Energy Storage

Conventional Hydro

GWh

IGS assigned to CA

Heavily Utilized Paths w/High Load

7

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Pe

rce

nt

of

Ho

urs

U75 U90 U99

Heavily Utilized Path P52

8

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Me

gaw

atts

WECC P52 Silver Peak-Control 55 kV

2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min

W -> E

P60

9

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Me

gaw

atts

WECC P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie

2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min

E -> W

P80

10

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Me

gaw

atts

WECC P80 Montana Southeast

2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min

N -> S

P83

11

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

200

300

400

Me

gaw

atts

WECC P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line

2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min

N -> S

P45

12

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

-1000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

Me

gaw

atts

WECC P45 SDG&E-CFE

2026CC-V1.3 2026PC2-HighLoad 2012 2024 Max 2024 Min

N -> S

Load Served & Associated Costs

V1.3 Common Case

P02 High Load Case

% Difference

Unserved Load 0 0 -

Served Load including losses (MWh)

983,039,081 1,082,132,696 10%

Generation Revenue (M$) 33,140 43,524 31%

Generation Cost (M$) 17,794 22,163 24%

CO2 Cost (M$) 3,613 4,282 16%

Dump Energy 600,831 173,148 -247%

13

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L

Observations

Increasing load by 10% by area has the following effects:

• Gas, coal, and combined cycle generation primarily serves the increased demand

• Some minor changes in path congestion

• The increase did not cause any unserved load

• Revenues & costs increased

14

W E S T E R N E L E C T R I C I T Y C O O R D I N A T I N G C O U N C I L