Power System Development Plan for Lao PDR - World …siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAOPRD/491761-1094074854903/20252473...Power System Development Plan August 2004 ... CCGT Combined

FINAL REPORT

Volume B : Annexes August 2004

Power System Development Plan

for Lao PDR

*

POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN FOR LAO PDR Prepared for Lao People’s Democratic Republic Ministry of Industry & Handicrafts Department of Electricity World Bank

FINAL REPORT VOLUME B: ANNEXES

Prepared by

Maunsell Limited* in association with Lahmeyer GmbH 47 George Street, Newmarket PO Box 4241, Auckland New Zealand

August 2004

* formerly known as Meritec Limited

TABLE OF CONTENTS

ANNEX 1: ACRONYMS ANNEX 2: CONSULTATIONS AND MEETINGS ANNEX 3: REFERENCES ANNEX 4: FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PROJECTS

4.1: Financial Modeling Methodology 4.2: HPO Financial Model – Sample Output 4.3: GOL / EdL Revenues from Export Projects 4.4: Project Supply Curve – Financial Summaries 4.5: Houay Lamphan Gnai – Sensitivity To Financing Terms

ANNEX 5: “EVALS” HYDROPOWER SIMULATION SOFTWARE ANNEX 6: “SEXSI” SYSTEM EXPANSION SOFTWARE

6.1: Description of SEXSI Software 6.2: Scenario Comparisons 6.3: SEXSI Results 6.4: SEXSI Output for Integrated Central Grid 6.5: SEXSI Output for Southern Grid

ANNEX 7: “SESAMEE” SOCIAL & ENVIRONMENTAL CASH FLOW MODEL

7.1: Sample Spreadsheet 7.2: List of SESAMEE Parameters 7.3: Parameter Valuation Methodology

ANNEX 8: DEMAND FORECAST

8.1: Demand Forecast Methodology 8.2: PSDP Load Forecast 8.3: Comparison of Demand Forecasts 8.4: Spreadsheets

ANNEX 9: TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT COSTS

ANNEX 1

ACRONYMS

Power System Development Plan August 2004 Final Report – Vol B: Annexes 1

ANNEX 1

ACRONYMS

ADB Asian Development Bank ADF Asian Development Fund ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations BT Build-Transfer BOT Build-Operate-Transfer BTL Build-Transfer-Lease CCGT Combined Cycle Gas Turbine COD Commercial Operation Date DOE Department of Electricity, Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts EBIT Earnings before Interest and Tax EdC Electricité du Cambodge EdL Electricité du Laos ECA Export Credit Agency EGAT Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand EGCO Electricity Generating Company of Thailanb EHV Extra High Voltage (500 kV and above) EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EPC Engineering Procurement and Construction EPF Electric Power Forum EU European Union EVALS Hydropower project evaluation software EVN Electricity of Vietnam EVSYS Module of EVALS for coordinated operation of hydro projects FDG Flue Gas Desulferizing units FSL Full Supply Level GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GMS Greater Mekong Subregion GOL Government of Lao PDR GT Gas Turbine GVN Government of Vietnam HDP Hydropower Development Plan for the Lao PDR (Lahmeyer) HDSS Hydropower Development Strategy Study (Worley/Lahmeyer) HHPC Houay Ho Power Company HV High Voltage HVAC High Voltage Alternating Current HVDC High Voltage Direct Current IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICF Installed Capacity Factor IDA International Development Association IDC Interest During Construction IPP Independent Power Producer JBIC Japan Bank for International Cooperation JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency kWh Kilowatt hour


Lao PDR Lao Peoples’ Democratic Republic LIBOR London Inter-Bank Overnight Rate LNCE Lao National Committee for Energy LNG Liquefied Natural Gas LOLP Loss of Load Probability LRMC Long Run Marginal Cost MEA Metropolitan Electricity Authority of Thailand MIH Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts MLA Multilateral Agency MOU Memorandum of Understanding MRC Mekong River Commission MV Medium Voltage MW Megawatt NBCA National Biodiversity Conservation Area NEPO National Energy Policy Office NTEC Nam Theun 2 Electricity Company NTEG National Electricity Transmission Grid NTPC Nam Theun 2 Power Company NT2 Nam Theun 2 NT3 Nam Theun 3 NT2SOA Nam Theun 2 Study of Alternatives (Lahmeyer/Worley) ODA Official Development Assistance O&M Operation and Maintenance PEA Provincial Electricity Authority (Thailand) PDP Power Development Plan PPA Power Purchase Agreement PPP Public Private Partnership PRC People’s Republic of China PRG Partial Risk Guarantee PSDP Power System Development Plan for Lao PDR PSP Power System Planning in MIH (Knight Piesold) PSS/E Power system analysis software PSSS Power System Strategy Study (EWI) PTD Power Transmission and Distribution Projects (ADB) PTT Petroleum Authority of Thailand PwC PriceWaterhouse Coopers RE Rural Electrification RFP Request for Proposals ROE Return on Equity SCOPE Specific Cost of Production of Energy (thermal power model) SESAMEE Social and Environmental Screening and Analysis Model for

Economic Evaluation SEXSI Power System expansion software SPRE Southern Provinces Rural Electrification Projects (WB) SRMC Short Run Marginal Cost STEA Science, Technology and Environment Agency THB Thai Baht; also Theun Hinboun THPC Theun Hinboun Power Company TL Transmission Line TLFS Thailand Load Forecasting Subcommittee TOR Terms of Reference UCOST Cost estimation module of EVALS UNDP United Nations Development Programme


USD United States Dollars WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital WB World Bank XS1, XS2 & XS3 Xeset 1, Xeset 2 and Xeset 3 respectively

ANNEX 2

CONSULTATIONS


ANNEX 2

CONSULTATIONS Asian Development Jim Nugent Bank: Edward Baardsen Carol Litwin Mala Hettige Consultants: Dr. Peter Ko (Resource Development International) Clifford Brown (Water Resources and Power Engineer) Developer Groups: Bernard Ruckstuhl (Nam Ngum 2 - EWI) Robert Allen (Theun Hinboun Extension - THPC) Robert Kay (Theun Hinboun Extension - GMS) Financiers: Silas Wong – Credit Agricole Indosuez Frederic Beaujean – Credit Agricole Indosuez Electricité du Laos: Viraphonh Viravong Daovong Phonekeo Daopheng Simmavong Ministry of Industry Houmphone Bulyaphol & Handicrafts: Somboune Manalom DOE Counterpart Team Adam Harvey World Bank: Barry Trembath Morten Larsen Robert Merz Mark Segal Darayes Mehta

ANNEX 3

REFERENCES


ANNEX 3

REFERENCES

1. Acres International, RSW and Hydro Quebec, “Nam Tha 1 Hydropower Project”, Report to SPB Hydro-Power Co. Ltd., November 1997.

2. ADB Developing Best Practices for Promoting Private Sector Investment in Infrastructure, Power, 2000

3. ADB Vietnam Power Development Program and Power Interconnection among Viet Nam, Lao PDR and Thailand, Consultation Meeting on PPTA for GMS Power Interconnection Project, Phase 1, Manila, Philippines, 16th-17th June 2003.

4. APEC Manual of Best Practice Principles for Independent Power Producers, Norton Rose / Worley International, May 1997

5. APEC Implementation of the APEC Best Practice Principles for Independent Power Producers in APEC Countries, Final Report for APEC Energy Working Group, Oct 2000

6. Asia Pacific Research Centre, Electricity Sector Deregulation in the Asia Pacific Region, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, 2000.

7. Axelsson, V, “Sedimentation in the Nam Ngum Reservoir, Lao PDR”, Report to Mekong Secretariat, Bangkok, Thailand, Oct 1992.

8. Beca Worley / Lahmeyer. “Nam Leuk Hydropower Development Project - Feasibility Study”, Report to Asian Development Bank and Electricité du Laos, Feb 1993.

9. Beijing Hydroelectric Investigation and Design Institute, “Pre-Feasibility Report for Nam Lik Hydropower Project”, Mar 1995.

10. Compagnie Nationale du Rhône, Acres International Ltd and Mekong Secretariat Study Team, “Mekong Mainstream Run-of River Hydropower”, Report to Mekong Secretariat, Dec 1994.

11. Compagnie Nationale du Rhône, Acres International and Mekong Secretariat, “Mekong Mainstream Run-of-River Hydropower”, Bangkok, Thailand, Oct 1994.

12. Crousillat, E., “Power Trade Strategy for the Greater Mekong Sub-Region”, World Bank report, September 1998.

13. Daewoo Corporation and Electrowatt, “Houay Ho Hydropower Project - Report on Hydrology”, Apr 1994.

14. EGAT Power Development Plan, General Information, Generation System Development Planning Department, System Planning Division, EGAT, April 2003 (subject to approval from Ministry of Energy)

15. Electricité du Laos Annual Report, 2002

16. Electricité du Laos Power Development Plan, PDP 2001-12 (Updated Schedule of Committed Projects, System Planning Office, Development Division, July 2003.


17. Electric Power Development Co, NEWJEC Inc and Pasco International, “Masterplan Study on Hydroelectric Power Development in the Sekong Basin - Final Report”, Report to Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and Ministry of Industry and Handicraft, Vientiane, Laos, Mar 1995.

18. Electrowatt Engineering Services Ltd, “Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelectric Project, Environmental Impact Assessment, Final Report”, Shlapak, May 1998.

19. Electrowatt Engineering Services Ltd, “Xe Pian - Xe Namnoy Hydropower Project - Feasibility Study”, Report to Committee for Planning & Cooperation and Dong Ah Construction Industrial Co Ltd, Jul 1995.

20. Electrowatt Engineering Services Ltd, “Nam Theun 1 Hydroelectric Project, Lao PDR - Feasibility Study”, Report to Siam United Services Public Co. Ltd., Oct 1995.

21. Electrowatt Engineering Services Ltd, Bechtel Corporation, “Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelectric Project, Revised Feasibility Report”, Shlapak, Dec 1995.

22. Electrowatt-Ekono Power System Strategy Study, Final Report, ADB, September 2002

23. ENEL SpA and ISMES SpA “Nam Theun 3 Hydropower Project - Feasibility Report”, July 1995.

24. EVN Power Development Program and Interconnection between Vietnam and Regional Counrties, presentation at 9th Meeting of the Experts Group on Power Interconnection and Trade, Guangzhau, PRC, 18th November 2003

25. EVN Viet Nam Power Development Program, Consultation Meeting on PPTA for GMS Power Interconnection Project, Manila, Philippines, June 2003

26. Fichtner, “Nam Ngum 500kV Transmission Project, Part A: Feasibility Study”, ADB TA 2926-LAO, Draft Final Report, November1998

27. Fichtner, “Feasibility Study for the Rural Electrification of the Northern Laotian Provinces, Luang Nam Tha, Oudomxai, Phongsali”, KfW, 1997.

28. Gray D R & Schuster J, The East Asian Financial Crisis – Fallout for Private Power Projects, Public Policy for the Private Sector, Note No.146, 1998

29. Head C Financing of Private Hydropower Projects, World Bank, 1999

30. HEC Enterprises Corporation, “Review of Xe Katam Hydropower Project”, Report to Hydro Power Pty Ltd, Mar 1995.

31. HEC Enterprises Corporation, “Australia-Laos Hydro and Transmission Project - Xe Kaman 1 Hydro Project and Southern Laos Transmission Project”, Report to Government of Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Feb 1995.

32. HydroConsul and Hydro-Electric Commission Enterprises Corporation, “Houay Ho Hydropower Project - Feasibility Study”, Aug 1993.

33. International Rivers Network, “Power Struggle, the Impacts of Hydro Development in Laos”, Feb 1999.


34. Knight Piesold, “Power System Planning in the Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts”, Final Report, ADB TA 2926-LAO, 1998

35. Ko, Dr. P Updating Hydrology Input for the PSDP Study, World Bank, Oct 2003

36. KOICA, Rural Development Department, “Feasibility on Tad Salen Small-Scale Hydropower Project in Lao PDR”, Final Report, 1997.

37. Lahmeyer International, “500kV Lao PDR Grid, Conceptual Design Study”, Ministry of Industry and Handicrafts, March 1997.

38. Lahmeyer Int. and Worley Int. “Nam Mang 3 Hydropower Development Project - Feasibility Study”. Report to Electricité du Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR, Feb 1994.

39. Lahmeyer Int. and Worley Int. “Nam Theun 2 Study of Alternatives”, Final Report, World Bank, 1998

40. Lahmeyer Int. and Worley Int. “Nam Ngum 1 Hydropower Station Extension - Feasibility and Engineering Study - Feasibility and Preliminary Design Report”, Report to Electricité du Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR, Nov 1995.

41. Lahmeyer Int., Hidrotécnica Portuguesa and Ministry of Industry & Handicraft, “Hydropower Development Plan for the Lao PDR - Final Report”, EU-Laos Cooperation Programme, Dec 1998.

42. Lynch, P A, The Project Finance Model: Financial Modelling for Project Finance, Euromoney/DC Gardner Workbook, 1996

43. Ministry of Electric Power (Myanmar) Power Sector Country Report, Myanmar, presentation to 9th Meeting of the Experts Group on Power Interconnection and Trade, Guangzhau, PRC, 18th November 2003

44. Ministry of Electric Power (Myanmar) Developments in the Power Sector, Myanmar, Ministry of Electric Power, Government of the Union of Myanmar, December 2001

45. Ministry of Industry and Handicraft, IPP Power Projects in Lao PDR - Implementation and Approval Procedures, Draft prepared by the Hydropower Office, Department of Electricity, Vientiane, Lao PDR, April 1996.

46. Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (Cambodia), Current Structure of Cambodia Power Sector, presentation to 9th Meeting of the Experts Group on Power Interconnection and Trade, Guangzhau, PRC, 18th November 2003

47. Mekong Secretariat, “Inventory of Promising Tributary Projects in the Lower Mekong Basin - Volume II: Laos”, Bangkok, Thailand, Dec 1970.

48. Motor Columbus “Prefeasibility Study Report of a Future Major Hydroelectric Project - Nam Theun 2, Nam Ngum 2, Nam Ngum 3”, Baden, Switzerland, Feb 1988.

49. NIHID, “Nam Ngiou and Nam Khan Hydroelectric Power Projects: Report on Hydrologic Investigation”, Report by Investigation and Hydraulic Design Institute, Hanoi, Vietnam, to Mekong Secretariat, Bangkok, Thailand, 1985.

50. Nippon Koei and Sogreah, “Xedon 2 Hydroelectric Project - Feasibility Study”, Report to Electricité du Laos, Vientiane, Lao PDR, Apr 1991.


51. Norconsult International, “Xeset Hydropower Projects - Possible New Developments”, Report to Electricité du Laos, Mar 1995.

52. Norconsult International, “Hydropower Development Upstream of Existing Xeset Hydropower Plant, Feassibility Study, Xeset 2 and Xeset 3”, Draft Report, October 1999.

53. Norplan AS, “Impact Studies for the Theun-Hinboun Hydropower Project, Laos”, NORAD for Ministry of Industry and Handicraft, Jul 1995.

54. Norplan AS, “Water Management Plan for the Nam Theun / Nam Hinboun, Lao PDR”, Report to Ministry of Industry and Handicraft, Apr 1997.

55. Norpower, “Nam Theun 1/2 Hydropower Project -Feasibility Study”, Report to Ministry of Industry and Handicraft, Vientiane, Lao PDR, May 1993.

56. RSW, Hydro Quebec and Acres, “Nam Khan 2 Hydroelectric Project - Pre-Feasibility Study”, Report to Canadian International Development Agency and Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Oct 1995.

57. RW Beck in assoc. with Hydropower Engineering Consultants, “Nam Ou Hydroelectric Project - Pre-Feasibility Report”, Report to Pacific Rim Energy Partners, Aug. 1995.

58. Schlapak Group, “Nam Ngum 2 Hydroelectric Project - Feasibility Report”, Aug 1995.

59. Stikeman-Elliott, Hydro-Quebec, “Study for Establishing Lao National Grid Company”, Final Report, ADB TA No. 2728-LAO, 1997.

60. Snowy Mountains Engineering Corporation Ltd, “Nam Ngum 3 Hydroelectric Project - Feasibility Study Conclusion Report”, Report to Ministry of Industry & Handicraft and MDX Power Company Ltd, Oct 1995.

61. Sogreah and Hydropower Engineering Consultants, “Amenagement Hydroélectrique de Nam Ngiap 1: Etude de Prefaisabilité”, Jan 1991.

62. SWECO and Hydropower Engineering Consultants, “Nam Theun I Hydropower Project - Updating of Prefeasibility Study : Phase 1”, Report to Mekong Secretariat, Bangkok, Thailand, Nov 1992.

63. Swedpower, “Nam Ngiou Hydropower Project - Feasibility Report”, Report to Mekong Secretariat, Bangkok, Thailand, Feb 1987.

64. Swedpower, “The Nam Khan Hydro Power Project - Feasibility Report”, Report to Mekong Secretariat, Bangkok, Thailand, Feb 1987.

65. UNIDO Guidelines for Infrastructure Development through Build-Operate-Transfer Projects, UNIDO, 1996

66. WATCO, “Lower Mekong Water Resources Inventory - Summary of Project Possibilities”, Report to Mekong Secretariat, Bangkok, Thailand, Sep 1984.

67. World Bank Private Participation in Infrastructure: Trends in Developing Countries in 1990-2001, 2003

68. Worley Int. and /Lahmeyer Int. Hydropower Development Strategy Study, World Bank, Ministry of Industry & Handicrafts, 2000

ANNEX 4

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS OF PROJECTS

ANNEX 4.1: Financial Modeling Methodology

ANNEX 4.2: HPO Financial Model – Sample Output

ANNEX 4.3: GOL / EdL Revenues from Export Projects

ANNEX 4.4: Project Supply Curve – Financial Summaries

ANNEX 4.5: Houay Lamphan Gnai – Sensitivity To Financing Terms

ANNEX 4.1

FINANCIAL MODELING METHODOLOGY


ANNEX 4.1

FINANCIAL EVALUATION METHODOLOGY

A4.1 Objectives of Financial Modeling The financial performance of a project is paramount if it is to be a candidate for private financing and it is assumed in the Power System Development Plan (PSDP) that concessional lending cannot be relied on. Technical and economic evaluation using EVALS software gives a measure of the quality of a project site in economic terms but a financial analysis is needed to provide the cash flow projections and performance measures of interest to parties to an IPP project. Financial modeling has been carried out on all shortlisted projects. It has been assumed that all export projects will be financed privately, and all projects for domestic supply could financed either by the public or private sectors. Financial modeling will therefore be conducted thus:

• Export: Projects are modeled using the HPO model to determine, firstly, whether they have the financial characteristics to achieve hurdle rates of return and debt coverage under assumed export tariffs and, secondly, what revenue benefits accrue to GOL/EdL in the form of tax, royalty and dividend cash flows.

• Domestic: Financial modeling of domestic projects (i.e. those identified by the SEXSI analyses as being part of least-cost system expansion) is undertaken at two levels to serve different purposes:

(i) Firstly, projects will be simulated as privately financed investments using the HPO model to determine the wholesale tariff needed to achieve hurdle rates of return;

(ii) Secondly, projects will be treated as EdL investments and their cash flows entered into the EdL Financial Model to test the affordability of the preferred PSDP system expansion scenario. The borrowing rates will be the on-lending rates assumed in the EdL model. This

Some adaptation of the HPO Model was necessary to mold it to the specific purposes of the exercise. A4.2 HPO Financial Model The HPO Model is a spreadsheet-based model tailored specifically to simulate the flow of money between participating parties to an IPP hydropower project in Lao PDR. These parties include the sponsor, power purchaser, lenders and GOL. The model provides an indication of the attractiveness and financeability of the project, and calculates the cash flow benefits accruing to the parties in nominal (current) values.


The HPO Model comprises cash flow statement, profit and loss statement, balance sheet, sources and uses of funds sheet, and loan disbursement and debt service schedules. The movement of money is shown diagrammatically in Figure A4.1. Figure A4.1 HPO Financial Model : Schematic Diagram

Features of the model include:

1. Built-in flexibility allowing the evaluation of projects with widely varying data inputs and contractual terms and conditions. Input parameters can be tailored to the specific project circumstances and in this respect the model can accommodate:

• Different tariff formats including escalating and levelized structures;

• Financing packages made up of multiple loans from different financing institutions.

• Tariff differentiation for project output sold into multiple markets and multiple tariff categories (primary and secondary, export and local supply, pre-commissioning).

• Different equity arrangements, debt/equity ratios, concession periods, inflation rates, interest rates, debtor and creditor assumptions,

Equity Loan INDEPENDENT POWER PROJECT

CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Equity

Loan Finance (Debt)

InterestOPERATING FINANCE

Principal Operating Cost

Loan Interest

Loan Principal

Royalties

Taxes

Dividends

Project Income

Payment for Electricity

GOL'sLENDER GOVERNMENT

OF LAO PDR

DEVELOPER

PROJECT BANKSMultilateral, ECA's

Commercial Banks,Supplier Credits

EGATEVN

GENERAL REVENUE PROFIT


repayment profiling, depreciation methods, royalties, taxation rates and holidays, wheeling charges, dividend policy, etc.

2. Aggregation of project net benefits and calculation of project performance measures including gross earnings, EBIT, net profit, project rate of return, return on equity, debt service ratios, etc.

3. Extension of the model to incorporate non-project issues such as cash flows relating to the raising and servicing of loans for developer’s equity.

4. Identification and aggregation of GOL benefits, including taxes, royalties, dividends, post-transfer receipts, local power supply and other quantifiable benefits.

The HPO Model can be used to test the sensitivity of project performance to plausible adverse outcomes in key parameters and inputs. In this way, it can be used to quantify and manage risks and allow a financially robust project to be developed. Sensitivity testing can be used to:

• Examine the effect on project benefits of alternative financing packages;

• Determine optimum equity participation;

• Make judgments about acceptable price risks that can be accepted in the turnkey contract;

• Formulate strategies and targets for tariff, concession and financing negotiations;

• For hydropower projects, evaluate hydrological risk by relating financial outputs such as return on equity and minimum debt service ratio directly to hydrological events of known probability; e.g. effect on project viability of the commencement of a drought sequence coinciding with commercial operation date.

A4.3 Modeling Principles The financial modeling addresses two separate objectives as outlined in Section A4.1; i.e. (i) deriving cash flows of generation projects included in the Lao power system expansion plan for application in an analysis of the affordability of the plan, and (ii) calculating the cash flow benefits to Lao PDR from projects developed for export. For both purposes, a set of uniform parameters has been adopted for benchmarking purposes. Unless compelling reasons dictate to the contrary, all projects will be assumed to have the same tariff, concession period, tax and royalty regime, financing terms, GOL equity, etc. Many of the project sites are not covered by any form of sole mandate agreement and for these a common set of assumptions is commonsense. However for others, this is not the case. The structuring of private power projects is highly individual with concession rights, financing, procurement arrangements and power purchase conditions varying widely from project to project. Cash flow projections presented in the Hydropower Development Strategy Study


were based on the rights and privileges applying to each project where a binding concession was in place. For the PSDP the approach is more standardized because the surviving concessions are by and large dormant and there is reasonable doubt about the ability of the present sponsors to implement their projects. There are, however, several projects that are showing every indication of proceeding and these need o be considered individually:

• Nam Theun 2: The sponsors of the Nam Theun 2 project have executed a concession agreement with GOL and a PPA with EGAT. The project is a special case in many respects because of its size, World Bank involvement and development approach. Cash flow projections based on standardized conditions would be misleading and they have therefore been based more closely on actual concession conditions and development costs. The modeling of such a complex project is a significant task and the PSDP model is necessarily approximate. A more precise estimate of cash flows may be obtained from the model prepared by Credit Agricole Indosuez in it’s role as GOL financial advisor on Nam Theun 2.

• Theun Hinboun Extension: The Theun Hinboun Extension project is at an early stage in the development cycle. The project evaluations carried out under this study confirm the attractiveness of several of the Theun Hinboun Extension (including Nam Theun 3) options. However, it is not known yet if the incremental output from a Theun Hinboun Extension option would be exported or sold domestically, whether the existing PPA and license agreements would be extended to cover the incremental project, and what the development sequence will be. It is therefore reasonable at this stage to use the common assumptions, wherever applicable, to preserve comparability between projects.

• Nam Mo and Xe Kaman 3: The developers of Nam Mo and Xe Kaman 3 will market the output of their projects in Vietnam. No precedent exists at this stage to indicate EVN’s final position and therefore the concession and purchase terms for these projects are a matter of speculation. Based on similarities in the avoided costs in the Vietnamese and Thai systems, the common set of assumptions based on the Thai market are employed as a proxy.

A4.4 Modeling Assumptions The principal parameters and assumptions used in the standardized modeling are described below: (i) Commercial Operation Date

Projects are evaluated according to the Commercial Operation Date (COD) determined as follows:

• in the case of domestic expansion, by the optimal SEXSI expansion scenario so that cash flows can be inserted into the EdL Financial Model for the affordability analysis;


• in the case of export projects, according to the export program assumed by the Consultant so that cash flows for these projects can be added to give an aggregate revenue stream.

(ii) Tariff

A flat tariff structure has been assumed for all projects despite that fact that a number might need front-ending under current market conditions to achieve the debt service coverage necessary to attract lender interest. A flat structure has been adopted for the following reasons:

• Most recent negotiations with EGAT have moved away from front-ended tariffs;

• A front-ended structure is less desirable from GOL’s point of view 1 and should only be adopted if it is necessary to facilitate the financing of a project promising attractive long-term benefits.

Projects were modeled using prices determined using avoided costs of the power system to which the power is exported (refer Section 5.8 of Volume A, Main Report). The prices in 2003 values are:

• Exports to Thailand: primary energy = 4.4 ¢/kWh secondary energy = 2.5 ¢/kWh

• Exports to Vietnam: same as Thailand

• Supply to Lao national grids: at the opportunity cost of foregone sales to the foreign power purchaser, i.e. off-take by EdL will be cost neutral.

These prices are escalated to COD at an underlying rate of inflation assumed to be 2%

(iii) Loan Conditions A sponsor’s loans are one of the final uncertainties to be resolved prior to commencing construction. For all Catalogue projects there are no known commitments regarding financing terms. A single interest rate and loan tenor is assumed to represent the weighted average terms for a typical project financing.

• Average tenor of loans = 10 years; • Average interest rate = 8%. GOL borrowing for its equity stake is assumed to be at 6% interest with a tenor of 12 years reflecting a concessional component.

1 A front-ended structure reduces tax take because gross revenue is highest in the early years when

tax holidays and low tax rates apply. By the time higher tax rates cut in, the tariff, and hence gross revenue, has dropped.


(iv) Concession and Modeling Periods The concession period is assumed to provide for an operating period of 25 years. This is consistent with the Electricity Law which allows 30 years from the date of the agreement. i.e. a development period of, say, 5 years and 25 years operation.

(v) Taxes and Royalties The level of taxes and royalties are assumed to be:

• Taxes: Years 1 to 5 0% of net profit – tax holiday Years 6 to 12 5% of net profit Years 13 to 25 15% of net profit

• Royalties: Years 1 to15 5% of sales revenue Years 16 to 25 10% of sales revenue

(vi) Fees and Charges Sponsors vary greatly in the loan fees and development costs that each applies to their projects. Development costs will depend on implementation and financing strategies. If, for instance, a multilateral risk guarantee is sought to facilitate lender support, high standards are expected in respect of studies, public participation, environmental undertakings, etc. and these may add to a sponsor’s pre-COD development costs. Development costs incurred by a sponsor under a properly structured competitive EPC bidding process are likely to be considerably lower. Development costs are assumed to be 1.5% of base EPC cost. Loan fees are assumed to be 3.5% of the loan amount.

(vii) Project Costs The financial modeling will have a project company perspective as distinct from the country perspective of the EVALS project evaluations and SEXSI system expansion analyses. The most prominent distinction to be drawn between the two is in the treatment of environmental and social costs. Using the SESAMEE model, all identified project impacts were internalized for the economic analysis but only those with financial implications for the project company are considered in the financial modeling. Examples of environ-mental and social costs that form part of the financial modeling are:

• any capital works (re-regulation dam, variable level intake, etc.);

• social mitigations during construction paid by the company (e.g. resettlement);

• recurring mitigation costs paid by the company during project operation (e.g. watershed management payments, on-going compensations, etc).


Impacts borne by GOL, other stakeholders or nobody are not included in the project company financial cash flow projections that form the subject of the cash flow modeling.

(viii) Miscellaneous A number of other input assumptions were made about a variety of matters based on present policy, legislative requirements and present custom. These included:

• A Debt : Equity ratio of 70 : 30 is adopted.

• GOL equity holding of 25% of total equity.

• Annual escalation of 2% for construction costs and O&M are used.

ANNEX 4.2

HPO FINANCIAL MODEL – SAMPLE OUTPUT

ANNEX 4.3

GOL / EdL REVENUES FROM EXPORT PROJECTS

ANNEX 4.4

PROJECT SUPPLY CURVE – FINANCIAL SUMMARIES

ANNEX 4.5

HOUAY LAMPHAN GNAI – SENSITIVITY TO FINANCING TERMS


ANNEX 4.5 SENSITIVITY OF FINANCING OF DOMESTIC PROJECTS TO LOAN TERMS

Taking Houay Lamphan Gnai as an example, the sensitivity of the project’s financial performance to loan terms and conditions was tested by determining the tariff required to achieve a Return on Equity of 17% (nominal, after-tax) and minimum debt service coverage of 1.3 assuming loan conditions that typify the following cases:

1. Commercial terms

2. IBRD terms

3. GOL on-lending terms to EdL

4. China Exim Bank: The results are summarized in the table below and the summaries of model outputs are attached.

Houay Lamphan Gnai: Required Tariff under Different Loan Terms

Commercial Terms

IBRD terms GOL on-lending terms

China Exim Bank 1/

Average interest rate (% pa) 8% 7% 6% 2% Loan term 10 years 20 years 20 years 15 years Grace period (from COD) - 5 years 4 years 5 years Calculated ROE (% nominal) 17.1% 17.1% 17.0% 17.0% Calculated minimum DSCR 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.8 Primary Tariff (¢/kWh) 6.50 5.30 5.06 4.24

1/ In the China Exim Bank case, no allowance is made for the possibility of higher maintenance costs or shorter service life often associated with Chinese equipment.

ANNEX 5

“EVALS” HYDROPOWER SIMULATION SOFTWARE


ANNEX 5

DESCRIPTION OF EVALS

1. Overview of EVALS Lahmeyer International’s EVALS program sets new standards in the computerized evaluation of hydro projects. It rapidly performs the following tasks: • dimensioning of project elements • inter-element optimization and co-ordination • automated drawing of project elements • reservoir operation and filling simulation • reservoir sedimentation analysis • cost estimation and bill of quantities • calculation of specific generation costs • probabilistic cashflow analysis The program mimics the input of a multi-disciplinary team of experts translating field and economic data into practical project information (refer Figure E1). Once the project data have been entered into the database, EVALS produces results within minutes what would take months manually. Figure E1: Basic Structure of the EVALS Model

Field Data Hydrology, Geology,

Topography, Hydraulics

Unit Cost Data Labour, Materials, Fuel, Construction Equipment

Project DefinitionProjects, Alternatives, Construction Elements

Control Param's I/O Control, Discount Rate, Value Power / Energy, etc.

New:DrawingsText Blocks for Report

Cost Estimate

Reservoir Operation

Dimensioning,Inter-ElementOptimization

Project EvaluationEconomic and Financial Analysis

Risk Assesment

Detailed cost estimateSpecific generation costs

Project dimensionsBill of quantitiesEquipment characteristics

Data Base

Process

Results


For more than a decade now EVALS has been used extensively for computerized dimensioning, cost estimation, and project evaluation in many countries and in numerous studies in Lao PDR and elsewhere. In that time calibrations with completed projects demonstrate the program’s reliability. Because analysis with EVALS is so quick, more project alternatives can be investigated than has been possible before. This often leads to the discovery of a more optimal, cost-effective design solutions, saving the private or public sector developer millions of dollars. Developed by Lahmeyer International over the past 20 years, EVALS capabilities and accuracy have been proven on many hundreds of projects worldwide. EVALS is the ideal tool for: • inventory level studies at river basin level • prefeasibility studies • evaluation of project alternatives in feasibility studies • review of hydro development studies • post-evaluations of projects • due diligence studies The accuracy of the results obtained with EVALS depend of course on the quality of field data. When using the same design and unit cost assumptions as in feasibility studies, the cost estimate and energy production is usually within 5% to 10% of the results in ‘manual’ studies. Principles for the development of EVALS have been the following: • the program user ‘builds’ the project by selecting principal project elements from

a library of standard designs. These are automatically adapted to the local topography, geology, hydrology, and other field data. A choice can be made from 12 different dam designs, 7 powerhouse types, 4 different kinds of spillway, etc.

• all project definition parameters are simple and do not require any calculation.

Input data are largely physical parameters, for example elevations, horizontal lengths, widths, rock classes, permeability indices, distances to and voltages of nearest grid points;

• inter-element optimization is automatically carried out by the program, within

limits specified by the user; • country specific cost information is entered into a cost database and unit rates

for civil work items are calculated using the program’s cost estimation module UCOST and these are stored in an integrated database for use in computing project costs (refer Figure E2);

• costs for hydro-electric equipment and hydraulic steel structures are estimated

from built-in cost functions, based on the latest world-wide tender prices under open bidding. Adjustments can be made to reflect distorted market conditions;


• element-specific percentages are added to cover the costs of non-measured items and contingencies;

• the program is intelligent and suggests cost saving design changes; • special cost and benefit items can be used to account for non-standard and

external cost elements, such as resettlement costs, environmental mitigation costs, special excavation, landscaping, and developer’s risk premiums;

• EVALS can test the financial robustness of the project by rotating the initial year

of streamflow sequences and examining the effect on reservoir filling and operation. This information is used for the probabilistic cashflow analysis to quantify the hydrological risks associated with the scheme;

• graphical and tabular outputs as produced by EVALS are ready for inclusion into

technical reports. Figure E2: Build-Up of Compound Rates for Civil Works

2. EVALS Optimization Processes Amongst others, EVALS carries out the following inter-element optimization processes: 2.1 Cofferdam – Diversion Tunnel(s)

One of the diversion options available is one with an upstream and downstream cofferdam, with one or more diversion tunnels. The user specifies the minimum and maximum crest elevation of the upstream cofferdam, and the length and maximum diameter of the diversion tunnel(s). The height of the downstream cofferdam is determined by the outflow peak of the diversion tunnel(s).

UCOST - Unit Cost Data Base

Principles Cost at site Unit rates for works Compound rates, per element

Constructionequipment

Tires for Equipment

Fuel andElectricity

Labour Wages

ConstructionMaterials

Equipment Costper Hour

Materials Costper Unit

Labour Costper Hour

Excavation ofRock

Hauling of Rockfill

Production ofConcrete

Formwork withSlipform

Installation of Reinforcement

all items relevant to DAM

all items relevant to SPILLWAY

all items relevant to TUNNEL

all items relevant to INTAKES

all items relevant to ROADS

basic prices as charged by contractor

rates may be volumedependent

for all HYPERelement types

INTE

RFA

CE

TO H

YPER


The program routes the diversion flood hydrograph through the pool, starting with the maximum number of tunnels and lowest upstream cofferdam, reducing the diameter of the tunnel in 10 cm intervals and keeping track of the costs of the cofferdams and tunnel(s), and then reducing the number of tunnel(s) until no solution is possible without exceeding the maximum permissible height of the upstream cofferdam. The minimum cost solution is then chosen.

2.2 Dam – Spillway The basic optimization parameter here is the spillway width. The smaller the width, the higher the peak water level in the reservoir and the dam crest elevation. For gated spillways also the spillway crest elevation and the number of gates need to be optimized. The user specifies the minimum and maximum width of the spillway. The choice may be overridden by EVALS if it finds that these widths are either too small or too large. The program then routes the design flood through the reservoir and keeps track of the maximum water level in the reservoir, which fixes, after addition of freeboard, the height of the dam(s) and the corresponding peak outflow of the spillway. A water profile simulation, with aeration if necessary, follows to determine the water levels along the spillway chute. The total costs of dam(s) and spillway is then registered. This is done for all possible combinations of spillway width (varied in 10 cm steps), spillway crest level and number of spillway gates. For gated spillways the process is repeated with one gate malfunctioning and a quarter of the dam freeboard allowance. The minimum cost solution is then identified and used for the project design.

2.3 Power Complex The power complex consists of the power conduits and canals, possibly a surge tank, the power house and the transmission feeder line After determining the rated flow, which is chosen by the user, and the rated head, the program cycles through the possible turbine types, determines the reservoir operating range, carries out water hammer calculations, and varies the diameter of the power conduits in 10 cm intervals. The number of elements is also co-ordinated. In a case with 4 turbines, for example, the number of penstocks can be 4, 2 or 1, but not 3. EVALS then selects the alternative which optimizes the trade-off between capital and operating costs and the present value of energy associated with the head losses in the system.

3. Quantification of Risk There are many types of risk in the project and operation of hydro projects. EVALS offers the unique opportunity to quantify the most important geological and hydrological risks.


Through variation of rock classes, permeability indices and duration of project, and assigning certain probabilities to it, the user can determine the cost impacts of poorer or better geological conditions within a matter of minutes. Reservoir filling is simulated, starting in each calendar month of each hydrological year, giving average, but also shortest and longest duration to fill as a function of the starting month. A warning message is given if filling time and duration of project construction are in conflict. The reservoir operation simulation is carried out for a rotating hydrology. For example for hydrological period 1950 to 1999, the first series is 1950-1999, the second series as 1951-2000, whereby the hydrology for 2000 is duplicating that of 1950, etc. This way there are 49 different time series, some starting with wet, some with normal and some with dry years. EVALS then calculates with what likelihood the specific generation costs are being greater or less by a certain margin than the average. Finally the program determines the reduction in output after 50 years of reservoir sedimentation.

4. Sample EVALS Output

A sample output from the EVALS model is attached.

ANNEX 6

“SEXSI” SYSTEM EXPANSION SOFTWARE AND OUTPUTS

ANNEX 6.1: Description of SEXSI Software

ANNEX 6.2: Scenario Comparisons

ANNEX 6.3: SEXSI Results

ANNEX 6.4: SEXSI Output for Integrated Central Grid

ANNEX 6.5: SEXSI Output for Southern Grid

ANNEX 6.1

DESCRIPTION OF SEXSI SOFTWARE

SYSTEM EXPANSION SIMULATION

Computer Program S E X S I

Version March 2004

SEXSI – Power System Expansion Simulation User Manual – Table of Contents - Page 1

Lahmeyer International GmbH, Consulting Engineers, Bad Vilbel, Germany Mar 1999

NOTE: ONLY FIRST SEVEN CHAPTERS ARE INCLUDED

TABLE OF CONTENTS Text Page 1. INTRODUCTION 1 2. GENERAL 2 2.1 Planning Objectives 2 2.2 Model Overview 4 2.3 Structure of Documentation 5 3. BASIC METHODOLOGIES 6 3.1 Representation of the Demand 6 3.2 Representation of Hydro-Electric Plants 6 3.2.1 Capacity and Energy 7 3.2.2 Outage Rates 7 3.2.3 Loading Order 8 3.3 Technical Representation of Thermo-Electric Plants 8 3.3.1 Capacity and Availability 8 3.3.2 Maintenance Scheduling 9 3.3.3 Loading Order 10 3.4 Cashflows 11 3.4.1 General Procedure 11 3.4.2 Cashflow Components 13 4. ADDING PLANT TO MEET SYSTEM DEMAND 16 5. SYSTEM OPERATION 18 5.1 Loading Order and Deterministic Production Costing 18 5.2 Probabilistic Production Costing 20 5.3 Pumped Storage Plants 21 5.4 Hydropower Considerations 21 6. DEALING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 22 6.1 Plant Investment Cost 22 6.2 Plant forced Outage 23 6.3 Hydrologic and Fuel Price Variations 23 7. PLAN IMPACT INDICATORS 25 7.1 Economic Indicators 25 7.2 Deficit and Reliability Indicators 25 7.3 Emission Levels 25 7.4 Socio-Economic Indicators 25 7.5 Risk 26 7.6 Plan Improvement 26



TABLE OF CONTENTS

[NOT INCLUDED] Text Page 8. PROCESS PROCEDURE 28 9. INPUT REQUIREMENTS 33 9.1 Scenario Definition File 33 9.2 Fixed Data File 33 9.3 Demand Data 35 9.4 Names of Existing and Firmly Committed Plants 35 9.5 Technical Data of Existing and Firmly Committed Thermal Plants 35 9.6 Techno-Economic Data for Thermal Candidate Plants 35 9.7 Ways to Affect the Output Level of Thermal Plant 35 9.8 Fuel Price Scenario 36 9.9 Techno-Economic Data for Hydro Plants 36 9.10 Time-Series of Hydro Power and Energy 36 9.11 Probability Data for Fuel Cost Analysis 36 9.12 Probability Data for Investment Analysis 37 9.13 General Output Header 37 9.14 Hydro System Operation File 37 10. PROGRAM OUTPUT 38 10.1 Line Printer Output (.lp) 38 10.2 Run Report File (.rep) 40 11.3 Dispatched Power (.trm) 40 11.4 Cashflow Data (.cf) 40 11.5 Interface to Spreadsheet Programs 41 11. PROGRAM APPLICATION 42 11.1 Batch Runs and Interactive Processing 42 11.1.1 Batch Runs 42 11.1.2 Interactive Runs 42 12. AUXILIAIRY SOFTWARE 43 12.1 Program SEMOV 43 12.2 Programs SEXTR and MSEXI 43



NOTE: ATTACHMENTS NOT INCLUDED

LIST OF ATTACHMENTS Attachment 5.1 Probabilistic Production Costing with the RLDC Method 6.1 Power System Planning: Avoiding Economically Unacceptable Levels of Risk 9.1 Scenario File – Example with Formatting Instructions 9.2 Existing And Committed Plant File - Example with Formatting Instructions 9.3 Demand Data File - Generated with Program SEXPE 9.4 Fixed Data File – Example with Formatting Instructions 9.5 Plant Data File 9.6 Thermal Plant Data Input Structure File ‘scope.inp’ 9.7 Fuel Data File – Example with formatting Instructions 9.8 File sexsi.pltype – Defining Plant Types 9.9 Parameter File for Hydropower Plant 9.10 Hydro Plant Data Input Structure File ‘hydro.inp’ 9.11 Application of Lahmeyer International Time Series Computer Programs - Introductory Note 9.12 Hydro Plant – File with Monthly Continuous Power Values 9.13 Hydro Plant – File with Monthly Maximum Capacity Values 9.14 Thermal Plant – Minimum Monthly Continuous Power Values 9.15 File project132 with General Header for Study 9.16 File sexsi.prob – Probabilities of Fuel Price Scenarios 9.17 File sexsi.inv – Probabilities of Investment Cost Variations 9.18 Hydro System Operation File sexsi.oprXXX (Malawi special) 10.1 .lp File – Detailed Output for Inclusion into Reports 10.2 .rep Output File - Summary Output for Inspection Important Parameters 10.3 .trm File - Interface to Program EXTRA 10.4 .cf File - Basic Cashflow Data for System Expansion Plan 10.5 File PXyyscenxxxx - Monthly Hydropower Export Potential 10.6 File sexsi.emi - Yearly Emissions CO2, SO2, NOX, PM10 10.7 File sexsi.pvs - Present Values 10.8 File sexsi.log - System Present Values for all Runs Done 10.9 File PFyyxxxxxxx - Monthly Fuel Consumption 10.10 File PPyyxxxxxxx - Monthly Capacity 10.11 File PEyyxxxxxxx - Potential Monthly Generation 10.12 File PUyyxxxxxxx - Monthly Dispatched Energy 10.13 Further Processing with Program MSEXI

SEXSI – Power System Expansion Simulation User Manual – Attachment 10.13 - Page 1


1. INTRODUCTION Purpose Integrated Resource Planning for Integrated Power Systems Program Name SEXSI

File Compatibility SEXPE demand modeling SCOPE determination of specific generation costs for power plants HYDRI interactive input of hydropower data into data base EVALS dimensioning, cost estimation and evaluation of new hydros LISYS Lahmeyer International convention for time series processing Computer Language FORTRAN 90 Operating System : Windows 95,98,2000 Author Engelbertus Oud, GW1, Lahmeyer International, Consulting Engineers, Friedberger Strasse 173, D-61118, Bad Vilbel, FR Germany

Part of Lahmeyer Power System Planning Package

EXTRA

LISYS SCOPEEVALS

SEXSIHIPPO

FINAN

Processing and analysisof hydrometeorological data

Dimensioning, costing andevaluation of hydro projects

Data base and analysis ofthermal and other non-hydrogeneration options

Operation optimizationfor IPP projects and hydro/thermal systems

Optimization of hydro/thermalpower system expansion

Expansion studies forHV transmission network

Economic and financial studiesincl. LRMC and tariff studies



2. GENERAL 2.1 PLANNING OBJECTIVES The principal decisions in generation expansion planning are concerned with the timing, type and size of future power plant additions and demand side management measures, and the system’s best mode of operation to meet a forecasted demand at a specified level of reliability. The overall planning process is shown below:

The Overall ProcessPRIMARY ENERGY SURVEY

HYDRO THERMAL ALTERNATIVE

TECHNO - ECONOMIC OPTIMIZATION OF GENERATIONAND TRANSMISSION SYSTEM OPERATION AND EXPANSION

RECOMMENDED POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLAN

PLAN IMPLEMENTATION

NATIONAL POLICY

PRELIMINARY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SOCIAL IMPACT ASSESSMENT, SITE SELECTION, PRELIMINARY DESIGN, COST ESTIMATE, VALUATION OF EXTERNALITIES



With SEXSI alternative long-term development plans for the electric power sector can be analyzed in a comprehensive manner. Basically the program simulates the integrated operation of an entire power system over a period of, say 15 to 25 years, and keeps track of all expenses to build, operate and maintain the power plants in, or added to, the system. Also thermal emissions are recorded. The results form a basis for selection of the most attractive plan.

The recommended expansion plan has to be: • technically feasible, • economically attractive, • financially viable, • socially, politically and

environmentally acceptable

Even though the planner is primarily interested in decisions involving the next few power plants, long-term effects make it necessary to optimize a long range strategy with which the role of near-term selections are studied over their lifetime.

The minimization of the economic present value of all future investment and operation cost is usually seen as the key mathematical criterion in selecting the preferable system expansion, but increasingly additional criteria are applied to arrive at a balanced decision. The basic planning approach will normally follow a standard procedure: • select from the many inferior solutions the few attractive ones(elimination process), • take such expansion decisions, which in the long run will most likely not be regretted

(plan robustness), • maximize the likelihood for the proposed plan to be accepted (maximized acceptance) • enable decisions to be based on plan issues of strategic nature rather than on short-term

incremental views (technocratic planning approach). This procedure gives maximum insight into the implications arising from alternative, preferably diverse, expansion policies. SEXSI was developed in accordance with the above planning philosophy. For each expansion plan investigated, it produces a wealth of data to be considered in discussions about the pro’s and the con’s of particular expansion strategies.

Who Needs the Information?Information to decision makers on capital investments

What powerplant should when be built where and with what sizeHow and when should electric network should be developedWhat DSM measures are warranted and when should they be implemented

Information for tariff studiesAverage and marginal short- and long-term supply costsExpected costs of DSM programme

Information to utility's financial managementFunding requirementsData for preparation of financial statements

Information to third partiesTreasury: external funding requirementsEnergy sector: fuel requirementsEnvironmental interest groups: emissions, land use, etc.Industry, commerce:

expected quality and cost of future power supplymanufacturing and construction needsprospects for independent power producers (IPP)

Funding agencies: projects for which donor support is justified



2.2 MODEL OVERVIEW Program SEXSI is a versatile planning model for the techno-economic simulation of an expanding power generation system. Its generalized flowchart is shown below.

The program basically simulates the technical operation of the power plants over the planning period using a monthly time step. After this simulation is completed a detailed economic cashflow analysis is carried out to calculate the present value of the investment, operating and maintenance costs, and the long-run average incremental cost to cover the future demand. Fuel and manpower requirements as well as expected levels of emissions are determined as well. Various levels of investigation can be requested from the operation simulation ranging from a simple deterministic dispatching with power plants linearly derated for their outages, to a full probabilistic production costing simulation, preceded by the determination of a seasonal maintenance programme for the thermal plant. The run can be carried out for an average hydrological year or can, in detail, carry out simulations for each available hydrological data year, which are then superimposed over the calendar year(s) of the power system expansion period. Likewise, the cashflow analysis can be more or less elaborate. The standard analysis determines present values and long-run average incremental generation costs for three user-selected discount rates. However a probabilistic cashflow analysis may also be carried out, investigating, for example, the effects of various alternative fuel price scenarios and weighting factors for the different cashflow columns. By overlaying • the effects of the variations in operating cost due to year-to-year fluctuations in the

hydrology • parameter sets defining the probability of occurrence of particular fuel price scenarios • probability of deviations in investment costs of thermal and hydro plant • variation of forced outage levels a frequency distribution of present values and specific generation costs is generated. This way it is possible to quantify to some extent risk levels of exceeding particular levels of present worth for each of the power system expansion scenarios investigated.

DATA BASEdemand forecast supply options fuel prices system topology economic parameters reliability targets

NEXT DEMAND YEAR

NEXT HYDROLOGICAL YEAR

NEXT CALENDAR MONTH

MAINTENANCE SCHEDULING SYSTEM OPERATION OPTIMIZATION

PROBABILISTIC CASHFLOW ANALYSIS RISK QUANTIFICATION STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COSTINGoptimal dispatch, fuel use, LOLP, EENS,operation costs, emissions, deficits/surplus

INTERFACE TO FINANCIAL MODEL

SEXSIPower Systems

Analysis



The SEXSI model is completely integrated in the Lahmeyer International software package for Electricity Masterplan Studies. It automatically retrieves virtually all data needed from the various data bases, such as hydro and thermal project data, demand data and fuel price scenarios.

This makes working with SEXSI very easy. The program user can concentrate on the definition of expansion strategies and their subsequent analysis in which he takes up the role of an ‘optimizer’. Though not truly optimizing between alternatives, the program has various facilities to determine the best timing of commissioning of the next candidate power plant. The user only has to specify the sequence of their installation. Outputs of SEXSI are manifold and various levels of detail can be selected for monitoring on the VDU screen and for the line printer output. Printed outputs are ready for direct for inclusion in technical reports. A considerable number of result files can be prepared for import into standard PC spreadsheet or graphics applications. SEXSI produces a disk file onto which year by year power plant outputs for selected hydrological conditions are written. This file is later directly used by program EXTRA for the expansion planning of the HV transmission system. 2.3 STRUCTURE OF DOCUMENTATION The following chapters describe how SEXSI works. First elementary techniques are explained. This is followed by an explanation of how these techniques are incorporated in the overall program and how the sequence of operation is. Subsequently information on input and output is given, with detailed instructions on how to run SEXSI on the particular computer system on which it is installed. Attachments are appended to the end of the text.

Part of Lahmeyer Power System Planning Package

EXTRA

LISYS SCOPEEVALS

SEXSIHIPPO

FINAN

Processing and analysisof hydrometeorological data

Dimensioning, costing andevaluation of hydro projects

Data base and analysis ofthermal and other non-hydrogeneration options

Operation optimizationfor IPP projects and hydro/thermal systems

Optimization of hydro/thermalpower system expansion

Expansion studies forHV transmission network

Economic and financial studiesincl. LRMC and tariff studies



3. BASIC METHODOLOGIES 3.1 REPRESENTATION OF THE DEMAND To represent the demand side, program SEXSI works with load duration curves (LDCs) combining all distributed loads into one demand center (SEXSI is a so-called ‘point model’). The LDCs are represented by a polygon P (load, duration) as shown in the following figure.

Demand for power and energy is defined at the ‘sent out’ level. The load duration curves can be generated by means of auxiliary program SEXPE, which, based on historic data, determines consistent monthly values from annual demands for power and energy. (The time increment in SEXSI’s system expansion and operation analysis can be 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 or 12months, but it is recommended to use the monthly analysis) SEXSI is a lumped model, the expansion of the HV transmission system must be performed externally. Model EXTRA, which processes SEXSI output data on generated capacity, is available for this

purpose

Load Duration Curve

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

Area under the loadduration curve reporesents the energy demand

Load Duration Curves (LDC's)is given as a polynom.



3.2 REPRESENTATION OF HYDRO-ELECTRIC PLANTS SEXSI allows all kinds of hydro-electric plants to be simulated: • storage projects • run-of-river schemes • pumped storage facilities Other projects that do not use fossil or nuclear fuel, as is the case with a wind power or an ocean thermal energy conversion (OTEC) plant can be treated in the same way as hydropower plants. 3.2.1 Capacity and Energy Program SEXSI normally requires concurrent monthly time series of capacity and energy output of all hydro-electric schemes which exist or are included in the list of candidate projects. Such time series can be generated by means of • hydro-thermal coordination models, such as LIHTO, • models which are particularly suited for the optimization of the operation of independent

power producers (with a supply contract with the receiving utility) such as HIPPO, or • conventional reservoir operation models, such as MPROS/PROST and EVALS packages All these programs are part of the Lahmeyer International power system planning package. Due to the construction of upstream reservoirs the increase of the installed capacity or the change of power and/or water demands, the optimal operation of hydro schemes may change over time. Program SEXSI allows redefinition (replacement) of the capacity and energy series as many times as needed during the simulation period. Internally the program assumes a retirement of the original plant and a zero-investment commissioning of the ‘replacement’ plant. The monthly time series of power and energy will often be oriented to the hydrological year and may therefore start at any month of the calendar year. If the first month of the hydrological year is not January, SEXSI will use the tail of the last data year as the initial period of the first data year. This is explained in an example for a hydrological data year beginning in October and a given series from October 1949-September 1995 • the first SEXSI data year is calendar year 1949,January-September 1949 is duplicated from

January-September 1995, • the last SEXSI data year is calendar year 1994, • 1995 is not a SEXSI data year. 3.2.2 Outage Rates The capacity and energy series for hydro-schemes are considered to account for the normal maintenance work. Major overhauls can be simulated by means of the plant replacement facility described in Section 3.1. Forced outage of individual hydro turbine units is not considered. This could theoretically be included, but would slow down the program considerably with only minimal gains in accuracy.



3.2.3 Loading Order As a criterion to arrange hydro plants under the load duration curve, SEXSI uses the plant commissioning dates. The oldest plants are loaded first, while the newest additions assume their operational duty last. Excess energy, if any, will therefore be first attributed to the most recently commissioned plant. 3.3 TECHNICAL REPRESENTATION OF THERMO-ELECTRIC PLANTS All kinds of thermal plant, including nuclear units, can be simulated, except for dual fuel fired or fuel storage restricted plant. Co-generation plant can be simulated by defining a monthly must-run output required to cover the heat demands imposed on the plant. 3.3.1 Capacity and Availability Capacity values used by SEXSI refer to the site rating for plant operation and to the ISO-rating for determination of cost levels (investment and fixed OMR). Thermal plants may have up to 33 units (identical blocks) stored under the same plant code. The annual maintenance requirement is expressed in days per year, assumed to be concentrated in a single maintenance period. The forced outage rate specifies the proportion of time in which the unit is expected to not be available as a result of an unscheduled outage. The annual time availability is computed as: AVAIL = (365 - MAINT) (1.00 - FOR) / 365 where: MAINT = annual scheduled maintenance requirement (days/year) FOR = forced outage rate, related to time not in maintenance SEXSI assumes that no scheduled maintenance is required during the first and the last calendar year in which a plant is operational. The capacity used for dispatching is the site rating, which depending on the employment of the maintenance scheduling routine and the selected dispatching technique (deterministic or probabilistic) may or may not be derated. If no maintenance scheduling is requested, SEXSI will derate, PRIOR TO DISPATCHING, all thermal units as follows: CAPM = CAPS (365 – MAINT) / 365 where: CAPS = site rating (MW) CAPM = derated capacity (MW)



If deterministic dispatching is chosen, the operating capacities will be derated for forced outage: CAPF = CAPS (1.00 - FOR) . (1.00 - DRATEM) or, if no maintenance scheduling was requested: ACAPF = CAPM (1.00 - FOR) where: CAPF = capacity derated for forced outage and maintenance (MW) DRATEM = proportion of time the plant is in maintenance in the particular season, (as determined by the maintenance scheduling algorithm) For full probabilistic dispatching the same formulae are used, assuming FOR=0.0, while for deterministic dispatching with randomly introduced forced outages, the FOR may be either 0.0 or 1.0 in any particular season. 3.3.2 Maintenance Scheduling As explained before, in the present SEXSI version maintenance scheduling is only carried out for thermal plant. If requested, the program will search for the best maintenance periods for each unit following the levelized reserve criterion, as explained in the figure below. Note that units are not considered for maintenance in the first and last calendar year in which they operate.

The pre-maintenance system capacity refers to the combined seasonal dispatchable hydro capacity in the average year of the given hydrological series plus the aggregate site-rated thermal capacity. Alternatively the minimum aggregate continuous power can be used as a proxy for available hydro capacity. This option is particularly useful in hydro-dominated systems. The upper line shows the available system capacity or energy before maintenance. Compared with the system demand, the maximum reserve capacity is available in season 3. Thermal plant A, which has the largest capacity, is therefore maintained in this season.

Levelized Maintenance Scheduling

Season

Capacity or Energy

SYSTEM DEMAND

MAINTENANCE PLANT A

PLANT B

PLANT C

PLANT D

INSTALLED CAPACITY ORAVAILABLE ENERGY BEFORE MAINTENANCE

LEVELIZED RESERVEAFTER MAINTENANCE



After considering the reduced available capacity in season 3, the remaining reserve margin of season 4 is the largest, and consequently plant B with the second largest output is maintained in this season, etc. The actual algorithm in SEXSI works on a daily basis, as maintenance durations are given in days per year. At the end of maintenance scheduling the seasonal availability of the plant is adjusted depending on the number of days the plant is in maintenance. 3.3.3 Loading Order In the operation simulation, first the base-portion of plants with a specified minimum stable load (MSL) are dispatched, followed by hydro and the remainder of thermal plant. The loading sequence of thermal plants is in merit order, from the unit with the lowest specific variable cost per kWh generation onwards. Separate loading orders are determined for the base load part (operated at MSL) and the incremental part of the load. The specific variable operating cost per kWh is computed as: VARCOST = HEATRATE * SPECOST + VOMR where: VARCOST = variable operating cost (US$/kWh) HEATRATE = heat rate (kJoule/kWh) SPECOST = specific fuel cost (US$/kJoule) VOMR = additional variable operating cost(US$/kWh) (lubricating oil, spare parts etc). If desired, the loading order can be based on variable costs which include penalties for emission of CO2, NOx, SO2 and PM10, or other unspecified externalities (such as nuclear safety). The variable costs may also change over time, as a result of the deterioration of the performance characteristics of the plant (fuel consumption, maximum output, magnitude and cost of maintenance and forced outage), changing real term fuel prices, or both. See the documentation of program SCOPE for details.



3.4 CASHFLOWS 3.4.1 General Procedure The period of cashflow analysis includes the pre-planning, planning and post-planning periods, as illustrated in the following figure:

All cost and prices must be expressed in constant currency units (say 1999 US$) and are stored for calendar year intervals. The system performance is simulated over the user-selected planning period. The end of which is called the ‘planning horizon’. In the post-planning period the demand is kept constant at the level of the last year of the planning period. The post-planning period is usually some 30 years long and allows plants with high investment and low operating cost to prove their long-term economic merits in the system. In this period all plants are ‘frozen’ at the output levels of the last expansion year. Plants for which economic lifetime expires during the post-expansion period are automatically re-invested. Salvage values are determined

at the end of the post-expansion period to account for the residual lifetime of non-retired plant. Cashflows for powerplant construction and operation are computed and documented for the entire cashflow period of economic analysis. This period may be longer than the sum of planning and post-planning periods depending on the start year of the plan and the first investment for the first plant to be commissioned.

pre_planning planning per iod p ost_planning

Demand (MW)

Cashflow Analysis - Planning Periods

investmentsfor power facilitiescommissionedin early partof planningperiod

investment costs,fuel costs,OMR costs,external costs,costs fordecommissioning

system operation costsas in last year of planningperiod, subject to real-termescation,re-investments as needed,linear salvage values in first year after post-planning period

period of cashflow analysis

year to which all costs are discounted (zero-year)



Taking into account all cashflows generated, the present value of all costs needed to develop and operate the system for a projected demand is computed as: PV = Σ (COST(T) / (1 + i)T ) for T=1,TE where: PV = present value of the power system expansion plan T = the interval of one year (year one stands for the first calendar year of the period of analysis) TE = number of years in the period of analysis, incremented by one to consider linear salvage at the end of this period COST(T) = total system cost in year T

i = annual discount rate All costs are assumed to arise at the beginning of the current year. Plants are written off linearly over their economic lifetime. Salvage values representing the current plant value are calculated at the end of the post-expansion period and credited to the present value of cost.

Cashflow Analysis - Cost Types

• construction (or rehabilitation) costs investment costs salvage values decommissioning costs • fixed costs for operation, maintenance and repair (OMR), such as spare parts, personnel,

workshop, etc • variable OMR costs, such as consumables, spare parts, specialist labour, equipment

rental, etc) • fuel costs (oil, gas, coal, uranium, etc) • cost for energy not served • cost of power imports and purchases • revenues from power exports and sales • external costs (emissions, nuclear safety, etc) • secondary costs (resettlement, loss of land and infrastructure, etc.) • secondary benefits (multiple use, employment effect) • all costs in local and foreign currency components



3.4.2 Cashflow Components The system cashflow over the period of cashflow analysis generally consists of the following components: • foreign currency component • local currency component • taxes (optional) Weighing factors can be given to each of these components to facilitate sensitivity analysis. Investment Each time a new plant is added to the power system, the cashflow of its investment cost is accounted for in the system cashflow. If a plant’s economic life expires within the planning period, it is removed from the generating pool. In contrast, a plant retiring in the post-expansion period is repeated automatically and the associated re-investment costs included in the system cashflow. At the end of the expansion period salvage values are calculated, except for those plant which have been declared ‘existing’ at the start of the planning period. In the case of hydro plant, basic project cost and their disbursement during construction are retrieved from project-specific files (generated for instance by EVALS or EMINI). The specific capacity cost of thermal plants are retrieved from the SCOPE data base and are multiplied with the installed capacity to arrive at actual investment cost. See the documentation of program SCOPE for details. The SEXSI cashflow analysis uses yearly intervals. The seasonal aspect of investments is taken into account by suitably allocating shares: if during a monthly analysis a plant is commissioned in, say, season 11, then 2/12 of its investment will be allocated to the current calendar year, while the remaining 10/12 of the costs is considered to our in the following year. Fixed Cost for OMR Fixed annual charges for operation, maintenance and repair are assumed to be plant specific and capacity dependent. If capacity is not reduced or extended, the fixed OMR cost of a plant remains constant over the cashflow period, unless the plant deterioration parameters define an increase or decrease of FOMR costs over time. Examples of fixed OMR costs are wages for operating and administrative personnel, building maintenance costs etc. Variable OMR Cost This cost component covers all operation dependent cost of thermal plant other than expenditures on the fuel used, such as lubrication oil, water treatment chemicals, and run-hour dependent maintenance and repairs. It is computed for each year of the planning period for each thermal plant as a function of the energy generated over all seasons. The VOMR per kWh generated may change over time, depending on the setting of the plant performance deterioration parameters.



Fuel Cost Up to 99 different types of fuel may be used for each power system simulation. For each fuel type, the lower calorific value of the unit of quantity and corresponding price in the reference year must be defined. Scenario-dependent real-term price escalation rates for each type of fuel may be introduced to reflect differences in expected price development. The net heat consumption for each thermo-electric plant is expressed in kJ/kWh for a range of load factors. If a plant has to satisfy a minimum stable load (as is often the case for steam plants, including nuclear power plants), separate heat rates are attributed to base and incremental operation of the plant. For plant for which a minimum stable load is defined, the incremental heat rate is computed as follows: HEATRI = (90 x HEATR(90) - MSL x HEATRB) / (90 – MSL) where: HEATRI = incremental heat rate HEATRB = heat rate at minimum stable load MSL = minimum stable load (%) HEATR(90)= heat rate at 90% constant load If no minimum stable load constraint is specified, SEXSI will assume the heat rate for the 90% load factor. In a generalized form the annual fuel cost for a plant p in a certain year t are computed as: FUCO(p,t) = ( HEATRBfp* ENERBp,s + HEATRIfp * ENERIp,s))* FUPRfp,t) where: ENERB= base load energy contribution of plant p ENERI= incremental energy contribution of plant p FUPR = fuel price for type fp used by plant p,H possibly escalated with real rates, as specified by the program user. The above heat rates are gross heat rates, derived from net values by adding a surcharge corresponding to each station’s own use. Fuel cost are assumed to occur at the beginning of each expansion year. Penalty for Energy Unserved Energy deficits are converted by SEXSI into monetary penalties by multiplying the deficits with a specific deficit penalty given by the user. SEXSI treats this local currency penalty as a normal cashflow. Power Export Revenues Excess hydro power generation may be exported to other power systems. The excess energy is multiplied with an user-given net revenue per kWh, multiplied with the kWh available for export. The revenues may start at any user-selected year of the planning period, and may be limited to the capacity of the HV interconnection with the other system.



External Costs In SEXSI external costs can of course (manually) be included in one of the previous cost categories, but those associated with: • SO2 emission • NOx emission • PM10 emission (dust) • CO2 emission • any other cost per kWh (for example; those associated with nuclear safety) can be calculated by SEXSI automatically. The general cost formula is: XTCOST = PENALTY*FUELUSE*ENERGY where: XTCOST = external costs, for example attributed to SO2 emission PENALTY = penalty for emitting one ton of, for example, SO2 into the air FUELUSE = fuel consumption per kWhe ENERGY = energy production in period of analysis in kWhe These costs are separately calculated for each of the thermal plant in operation. The overall value of the above mentioned external costs is calculated by adding all monthly (seasonal) values for all thermal powerplants into yearly totals.



4. ADDING PLANT TO MEET SYSTEM DEMAND

The adjacent figure shows the general structure of SEXSI. It is up to the user to define alternative development plans for the power system. It is useful to define a number of diverse development strategies to cover the future demand. For each strategy the user will have to investigate a considerable number of alternative power system

development scenarios (also called ‘plans’) SEXSI does NOT automatically find the least-cost development plan. In modern power system planing the task is not to apply mathematical optimization techniques to find the strict least-cost solution. Anybody having done such analysis knows how flat the optimum is, with almost the same system present value for grossly different plans, which however may have important advantages over the strict least-cost solution. What in the end is needed is a broad discussion to evaluate the pro’s and con’s of good plans and to select a development plan which is pragmatic, financially manageable, which carries low risk, and which is socially, environmentally and politically acceptable, even if this multi-criteria approach leads to a solution which is slightly more expensive in economic terms than the strict least-cost solution. In the normal case the user would define when particular system additions would be added to the system, but to a certain extent SEXSI can automatically expand the power generation system such that enough capacity is installed: • to meet the expected seasonal peak demand plus a reserve margin (reserve criterion) • to satisfy given reliability criteria for power supply (reliability criterion), or • both.

SEXSI - General Structure

GENERAL PARAMETERS,SCENARIO DATA

DEMAND DATA(LOAD DURATION CURVES)

FUEL, POWER PLANT AND DSM DATA BASES

AUTOMATIC RETRIEVALFROM DATA BASES

MAINTENANCE SCHEDULINGFOR AVAILABLE PLANTS

PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COSTING

CASHFLOW ANALYSIS,ALL COSTS CONSIDERED

PRESENT VALUE OF ALTERNATIVE POWER SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT PLANS

Next expansion plan

Next expansion year

Next season (month)

Next hydro-condition

HYDRO-THERMALOPERATION MODEL

Add plant if needed

COMPREHENSIVE RESULTS:

- PLANT ADDITIONS- OPERATING COSTS- RELIABILITY INDICES- EMISSION LEVELS- EXTERNAL COSTS



There are two options available for ‘automatic expansion: • the user defines the order in which new plant is added to the system, and SEXSI

automatically determines when they are needed, so that reserve and/or reliability criteria are satisfied,

• the user defines a ‘free’ thermal plant which will be implemented whenever the given plan leads to violations of the reserve and/or reliability criteria.

The existence of a plant in a particular season of an expansion year is controlled by its so-called presence indicator. At the beginning of each expansion year maintenance scheduling is performed for all thermal plant units. Thereafter, for each season of the expansion year under analysis, the procedure for capacity addition is as shown in the previous figure. The required system reserve may be defined by the user as: • a percentage reserve, or • n times the largest thermal unit, or • n times the largest hydro unit, or • a combination or the maximum of the above. In the deterministic analysis, all available thermal capacities (also of plants commissioned in preceding seasons) are multiplied by their specific forced outage rate to arrive at the effective average capacity. For each hydro plant, long-term time series for maximum capacity and continuous power must be available. They may be generated either by a hydro-thermal power system operation model or by a conventional reservoir operation models. Lahmeyer programs LIHTO, HIPPO, MPROS and EVALS are available for this purpose. The total hydro output for the particular season is determined for each of the hydrological years. The total energy vector is then ranked in ascending order to select the n-th critical hydro year, where n is an user selected value, and the data for that year are then used for in a test load dispatch. If the sum of thermal effective capacity and available hydro capacity for the n-th driest year is less than the required system capacity, the model adds capacity from the list of candidates defined in the plant implementation sequence or, if this is not possible, one or more units of a so-called ‘free plant’ type, which may be commissioned any time. This process is repeated until the demand constraint is satisfied. If no capacity addition is permissible, the model records the supply deficits and imposes a penalty for energy unserved. If expansion according to user defined reliability criteria is selected, the same process as described above is carried out, but instead of reserve targets, SEXSI checks whether LOLP targets are met, adding plant whenever required. In the expansion table the user can see why plant has been added to the system. The above process is carried out on a seasonal basis prior to each year of the expansion period.



5. SYSTEM OPERATION 5.1 LOADING ORDER AND DETERMINISTIC PRODUCTION COSTING The following figure shows a typical example of system operation in a hydro-thermal system. In the example the selected mode of operation simulation is ‘deterministic’. (The difference between deterministic and probabilistic dispatching is explained later.)

First, all available plants with a minimum stable load (‘must-run’ load) are dispatched to this level, in merit order. This generally applies to steam-power and nuclear plants. Then all available hydro-electric plants are dispatched since their specific variable generation costs are zero. The objective is to maximize utilization of the capacity and energy available in the particular season of the particular year. Hydros are loaded in order of historical addition to the grid, so that unused energy is attributed to plants implemented last.

Finally, the remaining available thermal capacity (refers to capacity after maintenance scheduling and derating for forced outages), including the incremental part of plants with minimum stable load requirements, is loaded in a merit order based on incremental variable operating cost. Thus plant with the lowest specific variable operating cost will have the highest degree of utilization and expensive to run units will be used least. (Note: the dispatch can, if requested, be based on a full inclusion of external costs into the variable operating costs). This process is called ‘load dispatch’ and also ‘production costing’. The projected seasonal load duration curve represents the system demand and the load dispatch finds the optimal (least-cost) loading of each available power plant under the load duration curve.

Typical Loading Order

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

PEAKING HYDRO

MID LOAD HYDRO

BASE LOAD HYDRO (run-of-river)

MUST RUN THERMAL

FREE THERMAL, IN MERIT ORDER

Dispatching order:

1. must-run thermal/nuclear2. available hydro and other renewables3. remaining thermal, in merit order

Results:

1. plant operation characteristics2. fuel consumption3. emissions (CO2, SO2, NOx, dust,etc)4. operating costs



The actual dispatching operation is as follows: • find optimal position under the LDC: as low as possible for thermal and nuclear plant, and

such that available hydro-energy exploits the full available capacity and energy. The • after finding the optimal position, the slice occupied by the particular powerplant is

subtracted from the LDC, and so forth, as shown in the following example.

Load Duration Curve

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load



1. Dispatch of Must-Run Thermal

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

PEAKING HYDRO

MID LOAD HYDRO


MUST RUN THERMAL


2. Dispatch of Run-of-River Hydro

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

PEAKING HYDRO

MID LOAD HYDRO



3. Dispatch of Mid-Load Hydro

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

PEAKING HYDRO


MID LOAD HYDRO

4. After Dispatch Peaking Hydro

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

PEAKING HYDRO


5. After Dispatch Cheapest Thermal

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load


6. After Dispatch 2nd Cheapest Thermal

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

7. After Dispatch 3rd Cheapest Thermal

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

After Dispatch of All Plant

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

PEAKING HYDRO

MID LOAD HYDRO


MUST RUN THERMAL


Dispatching order:

1. must-run thermal/nuclear2. available hydro and other renewables3. remaining thermal, in merit order

Results:

1. plant operation characteristics2. fuel consumption3. emissions (CO2, SO2, NOx, dust,etc)4. operating costs



If deterministic production costing is chosen, SEXSI can optionally introduce the forced outages randomly, depending on the plant’s forced outage rate. Contrary to conventional deterministic dispatching, plants are not year around available with derated capacity, but and will in any one month (season) either available with their full capacity (after maintenance), or not available at all. 5.2 PROBABILISTIC PRODUCTION COSTING A worked example of probabilistic production costing is given in Attachment 5.1. The algorithm incorporated in SEXSI is based on the Residual Load Duration Curve (RLDC) method. The loading order of the available power plants is the same as explained for deterministic production costing.

Before dispatch of a plant, the load duration curve is split into two parts, representing the time proportion the plant is available (active: not in forced outage) and not available (non-active: in forced outage). This is done by multiplying the time-ordinates of the LDC with (1-FOR) and (FOR) respectively. The plant is then dispatched with full available capacity and subtracted from the active LCD. The adjusted active LCD is then combined with the non-active LCD, which was not affected by the dispatch, to form the RLDC, which is used as input for the dispatch of the next plant.

After dispatch of all plants, the time-axis of the RLDC represents the expected loss of load (LOLE) and the area under the RLDC the expected energy not served (EENS).

Probabilistic Production Costing(RLDC method)

START

Load

Duration

100

0 100

SPLIT

PLANTIN OPERATION

PLANT IN FORCED OUTAGE

0

100

100-FOR

40

100

0 FOR

100-FOR0

60SUBTRACT

COMBINE100

0 100

REMAINING LOADDURATION CURVE (RLDC)

DISPATCH NEXT PLANT

AREA=EXPECTED ENERGYNOT SERVED(EENS)

LOLE LOSS OF LOADEXPECTANCY

AFTER DISPATCHING LAST PLANT



5.3 PUMPED STORAGE PLANTS Pumped storage plants are, amongst others, used for energy trading. The plant would pump water into a top reservoir during off-peak hours, and generate power during the peak hours when the same water is released through the turbines. SEXSI performs the necessary modifications to the LDC automatically, prior to the actual dispatching of conventional power plants.

Original Load Duration Curve

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load



LDC Manipulation for Pumped Storage

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

generation mode,decreasing remaing load(peak shaving)

pumping mode,increasing off-peak load

modified LDC

LDC Modified for Pumped Storage

0 20 40 60 80 100Duration

0

20

40

60

80

100Load

Note that the overall efficiency of pumped storage plants is in the order of 70% to 75%, hence the energy for pumping exceeds the energy generated. Therefore the total area under the modified LCD is larger than that under the original LDC. In SEXSI the pump capacity can be different from the turbine capacity. 5.4 HYDROPOWER CONSIDERATIONS The output of hydropower plants fluctuates from season to season and year to year, depending on weather conditions, storage potential as well as power and water system requirements. If concurrent time series of power and energy output are known from hydro-thermal or other operation simulation model for a period of, say, 30 hydrological years, then SEXSI analyzes the system operation for these 30 different hydrological states, for every season of the power system expansion period. In order to replicate the historical randomness of hydropower contribution and its corresponding effect on fuel cost and system reliability, the model records the system performance for each season of each of the these hydrological year overlapping with the particular expansion year. This way, as many annual fuel costs are derived as there are hydrological years. This information is later used for the probabilistic cashflow analysis.



6. DEALING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY A relevant paper on risk and uncertainty is given in Attachment 6.1 The main elements of risk and uncertainty affecting power system expansion planning are: • the future electricity demand • the capital cost of major system additions • the possible breakthrough of new power generation and DSM technologies • the future fuel prices (for systems with substantial thermal power) • the accuracy and stochasticity of the hydrology (for systems with substantial hydropower) • Risk is associated with a certain probability, whereas uncertainty is not. There are basically two ways to consider risk and uncertainty in planning: • to define individual scenarios (what would happen if ?), and • to incorporate the risk causing factors in the model, with their probabilistic properties. With SEXSI alternative developments of future electricity demand, available technology options and plant sequencing are analyzed with the scenario technique, while variations in plant investment cost, fuel cost, hydrological uncertainties and forced outages can be treated probabilistically, inside the model.

Risk Quantification

Investment CostsProbabilistic cashflow analysis

Fuel CostsApply several fuel price scenarios, and give each a probability

HydrologyRotate hydrological series over demand period

Example: demand period 1996-2010, superimposed by:

Case 1: hydrological period 1966-1980Case 2: hydrological period 1967-1981Case 3: hydrological period 1968-1982, etc. (each case with equal probability)

Generate system present values with weighted probability for each of above combinations and plot present value distribution function. Assess trade-off of average expected present value against risk of present value increase.

Result: tendency toward smaller projects and increased diversification.



6.1 PLANT INVESTMENT COST There is a probability for investment cost to deviate from the expected value. SEXSI allows percentages of cost deviation and their probability to be specified separately for hydro and thermal plants.

For each expansion sequence to be investigated, SEXSI generates a high number of different cashflow series with corresponding present worths. For every investment projects A,B, C etc., a random sample is drawn from a uniform distribution between 0 and 1. Its value along the axis ‘probability of occurrence’ defines the cost deviation from the expected value, to be applied for the particular cashflow. Alternative plans can now be compared on the basis of their probability-of-Exceedence curves for the set of generated present values (or average long-term incremental cost).

Given two curves with the same means (such as curves 1 and 3 in the above example) risk aversion policy would suggest the plan with lower cost at low probability of Exceedence to be followed. 6.2 PLANT FORCED OUTAGE If so desired, SEXSI randomly takes thermal units out of operation over one or more seasons, as explained in Section 5.1. The long-term plant non-availability is equal to the forced outage value specified by the user. This option is offered only for the deterministic dispatching case, as forced outages are already implicitly considered in the RLDC method, as explained in Section 5.2. 6.3 HYDROLOGIC AND FUEL PRICE VARIATIONS The effect of hydrologic variations on the implementation dates of new capacity has already been discussed in Chapter 4. Fuel cost are composed of two stochastic variables: • the fuel price development • the quantities of fuel used. The uncertainty in fuel price development is covered by the use of alternative fuel price scenarios, which are given relative weights.

Probabilistic Investment Analysis

1

4

2

3

5

7

6

8

9

10..

Project A is added

Project B is added

Project C is added

Project D is added

Project E is added

Project F is added

PresentValue

Yea

r of C

ashf

low

PV PV PV PV PV1 2 3 4 5 PV N

Probability of occurance

15% 60% 25%

-20%

± 0%

+30%

Cos

t Dev

iatio

n

Alternative Expansion Plans

Pre

sent

Val

ue (M

io $

) or (

US

c/kW

h)

0% 100%

12

3

Probability of Exceedence



The output – and therefore the fuel consumption - of thermal plants fluctuates with the output of the hydro stations in the system. The table below explains how hydrological variation is taken into consideration.. For each thermal unit a matrix over all years of expansion and all years of hydrology is prepared with information on its actual annual generation.

Using the data for a selected fuel price scenario, a first series of fuel costs is generated, where hydrological year number one coincides with the first year of the expansion period.

In the following series, the hydrological year number two is assumed to coincide with the first year of the expansion period, and so forth, until finally as many time series (cashflows) are obtained as there are hydrological years. The length of each series is equal to the expansion period. This procedure assumes equal likelihood of historic years of hydrology for future years of the expansion period and furthermore assumes that historic hydrological sequences may repeat themselves. Subsequently, the present value of each cashflow is computed, resulting in a number of present values equal to the number of hydrological data years, each assumed to have the same likelihood of occurrence. Should a full probabilistic fuel cost analysis be performed, the above procedure is repeated for all fuel price scenarios defined. Basic assumptions for this analysis are that the loading order of thermal plant does not change with fuel price scenario and that the chronological order of hydrological years is maintained when building up the individual fuel cost time series.

Period of Power System Planning: 2000 2015 Hydrological Data Period: 1950 1998

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 PresentValue

Hydrology 1 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 PV(1)Hydrology 2 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 PV(2)Hydrology 3 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 1960 1961 1962 PV(3)

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Hydrology 38 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 PV(38)Hydrology 39 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1950 PV(39)

... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...Hydrology 46 1996 1997 1998 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 PV(46)Hydrology 47 1997 1998 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 PV(46)Hydrology 48 1998 1950 1951 1952 1953 1954 1955 1956 1957 1958 1959 PV(46)

Average of 48 Present Values PV(ave)

EXAMPLE: SUPERIMPOSING HYDROPERIOD OVER POWER SYSTEM OPERATION PERIOD

Power System Simulation Year



7. PLAN IMPACT INDICATORS 7.1 ECONOMIC INDICATORS From the cashflow analysis described before the user obtains information on the annual development of the local and foreign component of investment, operation and maintenance, and fuel cost, and the corresponding economic present value of the system, computed for a user-selected discount rate and discount rates 5% above and below this value. SEXSI also determines the long-term average incremental generation cost (AIC) which is a very helpful index, similar to the long range marginal generation cost (LRMC). It is defined as: AIC = PVC / PVE where: PVC = economical present value of cost at x% discount rate PVE = present value at x% discount rate of the energy dispatched, excluding energy which comes ‘free of charge’ e.g. that produced by already existing or firmly committed hydro with no specified investment cost. 7.2 DEFICIT AND RELIABILITY INDICATORS SEXSI keeps track of the power and energy deficits of the system expansion plans which are analyzed. A deficit table illustrates whether a specific deficit situation constitutes an energy or a capacity problem. This helps to select a suitable type of plant to cover this deficit. If probabilistic dispatching is chosen, or deterministic dispatching with randomly introduced forced outages, SEXSI reports on the development of LOLP and EENS values over time. 7.3 EMISSION LEVELS For each thermal plant the specific emissions of CO2, SO2, NOx and PM10 (all expressed in mg/kWh) may be entered as input data. SEXSI will tabulate the system emission level development over time, depending on the energy contribution of individual plant types and the fuel quantities burnt. The 7.4 SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS SEXSI keeps track of resettlement requirements associated with the commissioning of new hydros. Internally the program assumes that half of the people affected are resettled four years and the remainder one year before plant commissioning. A table showing the number of people to be resettled over the expansion period is prepared. SEXSI also determines the plan employment effect. For each expansion plan SEXSI prepares tables for the number of workers required for thermal and for hydro stations, grouping them into labour for plant construction and labour for operation and maintenance. The employment figures indicate when and how many jobs are created and/or lost in the expansion plan.



7.5 RISK At the conclusion of a series of probabilistic analyses with SEXSI, the robustness of the plan can be assessed by comparing compound probability curves for AICs generated for several expansion plans. A robust plan would have lower average AIC values, but also have acceptable AIC values at the lower probability levels, than competing plans.

7.6 PLAN IMPROVEMENT To improve any of the above planning indicators the program user may resort to a variety of measures, including changes in plant scheduling, sequencing or phasing, changes in plant type or capacity, and so forth. Many factors must be taken into account besides those generated with SEXSI. A good plan should be: • technically feasible, • economically attractive and of acceptable risk, • financially viable, • socially, politically and environmentally acceptable The right balance between all objectives should be found, and trade-offs between, say, economics, environmental impact and social matters must be made transparent to stakeholders and decision makers.

Risk Aversion with Uncertain Demand

Make sure that capital intensive project with long lead time is part of the least-cost plan and can almost certainly be used even under a pessimistic forecast. A pessimistic demand forecast is associated with a poorly performing economy and under these conditions you cannot afford costly mistakes.

Have a number of 'flexible response plants with short lead time available for immediate tendering should the demand rise faster than expected. Typically these are gas turbines, which may later be converted to combined cycle. This may not be strictly least-cost, but the economy booms and can afford the extra cost without problems.

DSM measures can help to reduce risk of insufficient supply.

Demand

Year

Pessimistic Forecast

Normal Forecast

Have 'flexible response' plant readyfor quick implementationsuch as gas turbine orcombined cycle

Firmly plan capital intensive projects with long lead timesuch as hydro, nuclear or coal fired steam plant



Depending on the complexity of the system under investigation several hundred simulations may be required before a plan with acceptable power system development plan is found. The recommended approach is to first define a series of 5 to 10 alternative, rather diverse, expansion policies in which introduction of one or the other generating plant type is simulated at the expense of other types. This gives a valuable insight in repercussions of selecting particular policies. After a pre-optimization of the expansion plan for each of the policies, one most attractive expansion policy can be adopted and further refined.

ANNEX 6.2

SCENARIO COMPARISONS

ANNEX 6.3

SEXSI RESULTS


Annex 6.3: SEXSI Results Results of SEXSI runs for main scenarios investigated Discount rate: 10% p.a. Exports: 2 and 3 USc/kWh Imports: 6.1 USc/kWh (results for 4.6 USc/kWh are not provided)

============================================================================================= sc000000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION CENTRAL GRID LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc000000 2005-2020 THB EXT 2008 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc000000 MODIFIED EDL DEMAND NT2 2010 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc000000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE NGIEP 2013 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc000000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2014 01 sc000000 C.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2014 01 sc000000 sexsi.fp0 sc000000 sexsi.exC sc000000 sexsi.therm sc000000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 288.8 251.4 361.8 1519.1 1184.9 334.2 68.5 259.9 17.1 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 251.4 361.8 1665.9 1206.6 459.2 46.8 380.3 22.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 251.4 361.8 1862.5 1225.0 637.4 28.4 554.1 29.8 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 353.7 361.8 2032.3 1806.1 226.2 133.3 173.4 8.5 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 353.7 361.8 2151.9 1840.9 311.0 98.5 244.2 11.3 0.0 0.0 2010 412.7 428.7 355.8 2305.7 2085.6 220.1 154.5 192.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 428.7 354.2 2391.1 2114.2 276.9 125.9 252.3 10.6 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 428.7 354.2 2516.5 2146.3 370.2 93.8 343.4 13.6 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 428.7 354.0 2661.2 2173.2 488.0 66.9 458.8 17.2 0.0 0.0 2014 504.2 641.9 354.0 2817.5 2778.7 38.8 793.9 35.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 2015 539.0 641.9 354.0 3011.7 2945.9 65.9 626.7 60.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 2016 566.5 641.9 354.0 3165.6 3070.4 95.3 502.2 88.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 2017 596.9 641.9 354.0 3335.4 3183.9 151.6 388.7 137.4 4.1 0.0 0.0 2018 628.2 641.9 354.0 3510.4 3272.4 238.1 300.2 219.2 6.2 0.0 0.1 2019 663.6 641.9 354.0 3707.8 3342.2 365.6 230.4 342.3 9.2 0.0 0.7 2020 698.9 641.9 354.0 3905.4 3399.5 505.8 173.0 480.8 12.3 0.1 2.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.8 0.0 1.4 6.5 0.0 20.0 26.5 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.2 0.0 0.9 6.9 0.0 27.9 34.7 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 35.9 0.0 0.6 7.1 0.0 39.0 46.1 2008 0.0 31.5 0.0 0.1 11.9 0.0 2.7 4.8 0.0 40.9 45.7 2009 34.9 31.5 0.0 0.1 16.6 0.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 81.2 87.1 2010 67.6 43.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 120.9 120.9 2011 87.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 16.5 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 145.4 145.4 2012 90.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 22.1 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 154.5 154.5 2013 57.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 29.3 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 129.5 129.5 2014 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 15.9 0.0 31.9 33.6 65.5 2015 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 38.5 38.5 2016 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 42.8 42.8 2017 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 48.4 48.4 2018 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 14.2 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 55.4 55.4 2019 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 22.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 64.5 64.5 2020 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 30.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 74.2 74.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 784.2 807.5 797.9 821.2 10.0 % 612.8 634.6 624.0 645.8 12.0 % 494.5 514.8 503.6 524.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 762.5 785.8 776.2 799.5 10.0 % 596.2 617.9 607.4 629.1 12.0 % 481.3 501.7 490.5 510.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc000001 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc000001 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc000001 EDL DEMAND C1+C2 NAMPOT + NNGIEP + NNGUM05 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc000001 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc000001 sexsi.fix IMPPHAKBO 2005 01 NNGIEP1A 1.00 2012 01 sc000001 c.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2012 01 sc000001 sexsi.fp0 NNGUM05A 1.00 2018 01 sc000001 sexsi.exc121 POT0001D 1.00 2020 01 sc000001 sexsi.therm sc000001 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 288.8 251.4 361.8 1519.1 1184.9 334.2 68.5 259.9 17.1 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 251.4 361.8 1665.9 1206.6 459.2 46.8 380.3 22.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 251.4 361.8 1862.5 1225.0 637.4 28.4 554.1 29.8 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 353.7 361.8 2032.3 1806.1 226.2 133.3 173.4 8.5 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 353.7 361.8 2151.9 1840.9 311.0 98.5 244.2 11.3 0.0 0.0 2010 412.7 428.7 355.8 2305.7 2085.6 220.1 154.5 192.3 8.3 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 428.7 354.2 2391.1 2114.2 276.9 125.9 252.3 10.6 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 641.9 354.2 2516.5 2501.9 14.6 1070.6 13.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 641.9 354.0 2661.2 2638.1 23.1 934.5 20.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 2014 504.2 641.9 354.0 2817.5 2778.7 38.8 793.9 35.1 1.2 0.0 0.0 2015 539.0 641.9 354.0 3011.7 2945.9 65.9 626.7 60.3 2.0 0.0 0.0 2016 566.5 641.9 354.0 3165.6 3070.4 95.3 502.2 88.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 2017 596.9 641.9 354.0 3335.4 3183.9 151.6 388.7 137.4 4.1 0.0 0.0 2018 628.2 683.8 354.0 3510.4 3394.3 116.1 473.9 107.5 3.1 0.0 0.1 2019 663.6 683.8 354.0 3707.8 3508.1 199.7 360.1 184.2 5.0 0.0 0.5 2020 698.9 695.4 354.0 3905.4 3647.1 258.3 313.6 238.9 6.1 0.0 1.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.8 0.0 1.4 6.5 0.0 20.0 26.5 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.2 0.0 0.9 6.9 0.0 27.9 34.7 2007 34.9 3.4 0.0 0.1 35.9 0.0 0.6 7.1 0.0 73.8 81.0 2008 67.6 31.5 0.0 0.1 11.9 0.0 2.7 4.8 0.0 108.5 113.3 2009 87.9 31.5 0.0 0.1 16.6 0.0 2.0 6.0 0.0 134.1 140.1 2010 90.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 143.9 143.9 2011 57.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 16.5 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 115.4 115.4 2012 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 21.4 0.0 31.9 26.6 58.5 2013 11.6 47.1 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 18.7 0.0 0.0 41.4 41.4 2014 22.5 47.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 56.1 56.1 2015 29.3 47.1 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 12.5 0.0 0.0 67.8 67.8 2016 25.6 47.1 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 10.0 0.0 0.0 68.4 68.4 2017 18.1 47.1 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 66.5 66.5 2018 6.5 48.1 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 11.7 52.0 63.7 2019 3.1 48.1 0.0 0.0 11.9 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 55.9 55.9 2020 0.0 48.3 0.0 0.0 15.5 0.0 6.3 0.0 15.6 57.5 73.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 758.0 781.3 831.3 854.6 10.0 % 609.9 631.7 659.2 680.9 12.0 % 505.0 525.4 539.6 559.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 721.6 744.9 794.9 818.2 10.0 % 582.1 603.8 631.4 653.1 12.0 % 483.2 503.5 517.7 538.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc070000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc070000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc070000 EDL DEMAND C NNGIEP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc070000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2007 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc070000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2013 01 sc070000 C07.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2013 01 sc070000 sexsi.fp0 sc070000 sexsi.exC sc070000 sexsi.therm sc070000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 361.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.0 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 361.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 251.4 361.8 1862.5 1223.4 639.1 30.0 555.8 29.8 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 353.7 361.8 2032.3 1801.7 230.6 137.7 177.8 8.7 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 353.7 361.8 2151.9 1837.1 314.8 102.3 248.7 11.6 0.0 0.0 2010 412.7 428.7 355.8 2305.8 2080.3 225.5 159.8 197.8 8.6 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 428.7 354.2 2391.1 2109.7 281.4 130.4 257.5 10.8 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 428.7 354.2 2516.5 2142.1 374.5 98.0 347.8 13.8 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 641.9 354.0 2661.2 2635.2 25.9 937.3 22.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 2014 504.2 641.9 354.0 2817.5 2775.3 42.2 797.3 38.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 2015 539.0 641.9 354.0 3011.7 2941.9 69.8 630.7 64.2 2.1 0.0 0.0 2016 566.5 641.9 354.0 3165.6 3065.3 100.3 507.3 92.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 2017 596.9 641.9 354.0 3335.5 3176.0 159.5 396.6 145.3 4.4 0.0 0.1 2018 628.2 641.9 354.0 3510.4 3263.6 246.7 308.9 228.4 6.5 0.0 0.1 2019 663.6 641.9 354.0 3707.8 3334.4 373.3 238.2 350.2 9.4 0.0 0.9 2020 698.9 641.9 354.0 3905.4 3392.7 512.7 179.9 488.3 12.5 0.1 2.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 19.1 25.6 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 36.0 0.0 0.6 7.1 0.0 39.0 46.2 2008 34.9 31.5 0.0 0.1 12.2 0.0 2.8 4.8 0.0 76.0 80.7 2009 67.6 31.5 0.0 0.1 16.8 0.0 2.0 5.9 0.0 114.1 120.0 2010 87.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 141.3 141.4 2011 90.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 148.4 148.4 2012 57.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 22.4 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 121.9 121.9 2013 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 18.7 0.0 31.9 29.9 61.8 2014 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 33.7 33.7 2015 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 12.6 0.0 0.0 38.7 38.7 2016 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 43.0 43.0 2017 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 48.7 48.7 2018 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 55.7 55.7 2019 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 22.4 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 64.8 64.8 2020 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 30.9 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 74.5 74.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 768.5 791.3 783.3 806.1 10.0 % 601.5 622.8 613.8 635.1 12.0 % 486.5 506.4 496.8 516.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 741.9 764.6 756.6 779.4 10.0 % 580.7 601.9 593.0 614.2 12.0 % 469.9 489.7 480.1 500.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc100000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc100000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc100000 EDL DEMAND C NNGIEP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc100000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2007 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc100000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2013 01 sc100000 C10.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2013 01 sc100000 sexsi.fp0 sc100000 sexsi.exC sc100000 sexsi.therm sc100000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 361.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.0 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 361.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.0 2007 315.4 251.4 361.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.0 2008 339.0 353.7 361.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 361.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 412.7 428.7 355.8 2305.8 2080.3 225.5 159.8 197.8 8.6 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 428.7 354.2 2391.1 2109.7 281.4 130.4 257.5 10.8 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 428.7 354.2 2516.5 2142.1 374.5 98.0 347.8 13.8 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 641.9 354.0 2661.2 2635.2 25.9 937.3 22.8 0.9 0.0 0.0 2014 504.2 641.9 354.0 2817.5 2775.2 42.2 797.3 38.5 1.4 0.0 0.0 2015 539.0 641.9 354.0 3011.7 2941.9 69.8 630.7 64.2 2.1 0.0 0.0 2016 566.5 641.9 354.0 3165.6 3065.3 100.3 507.3 92.9 2.9 0.0 0.0 2017 596.9 641.9 354.0 3335.5 3176.0 159.5 396.6 145.3 4.4 0.0 0.1 2018 628.2 641.9 354.0 3510.4 3263.6 246.7 308.9 228.4 6.5 0.0 0.1 2019 663.6 641.9 354.0 3707.8 3334.4 373.3 238.2 350.2 9.4 0.0 0.9 2020 698.9 641.9 354.0 3905.4 3392.7 512.7 179.9 488.3 12.5 0.1 2.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 19.1 25.6 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 27.6 34.5 2008 34.9 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 67.7 70.0 2009 67.6 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 103.6 107.1 2010 87.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 141.3 141.4 2011 90.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 148.4 148.4 2012 57.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 22.4 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 121.9 121.9 2013 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 18.7 0.0 31.9 29.9 61.8 2014 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 33.7 33.7 2015 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 12.6 0.0 0.0 38.7 38.7 2016 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 43.0 43.0 2017 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 48.7 48.7 2018 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 55.7 55.7 2019 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 22.4 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 64.8 64.8 2020 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 30.9 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 74.5 74.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 747.9 767.3 762.7 782.1 10.0 % 582.7 600.8 595.0 613.1 12.0 % 469.3 486.4 479.6 496.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 719.7 739.1 734.5 753.8 10.0 % 560.4 578.6 572.7 590.9 12.0 % 451.3 468.4 461.6 478.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121000 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NNGIEP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2013 01 sc121000 c121.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2013 01 sc121000 sexsi.fp0 sc121000 sexsi.exc121 sc121000 sexsi.therm sc121000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 428.7 275.8 2012.1 1914.3 97.8 325.8 86.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 428.7 274.2 2075.7 1960.8 115.0 279.3 105.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 428.7 274.2 2182.6 2025.2 157.4 214.9 140.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 641.9 274.0 2307.7 2297.8 9.8 1274.7 9.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 641.9 274.0 2441.5 2428.4 13.1 1144.2 12.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 641.9 274.0 2611.3 2589.9 21.3 982.6 18.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 2016 506.2 641.9 274.0 2741.3 2707.4 33.9 865.2 30.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 641.9 274.0 2884.0 2833.4 50.6 739.2 46.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 641.9 274.0 3032.0 2958.6 73.4 614.0 67.6 2.2 0.0 0.4 2019 590.6 641.9 274.0 3198.3 3090.2 108.1 482.4 100.1 3.1 0.0 1.8 2020 621.5 641.9 274.0 3365.2 3192.3 172.9 380.3 158.0 4.7 0.1 3.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 19.1 25.6 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 27.6 34.5 2008 34.9 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 67.7 70.0 2009 67.6 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 103.6 107.1 2010 87.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 130.6 130.6 2011 90.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 135.5 135.5 2012 57.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 106.5 106.5 2013 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 25.5 0.0 31.9 22.2 54.1 2014 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 22.9 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 2015 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 19.7 0.0 0.0 28.7 28.7 2016 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 31.8 31.8 2017 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 0.0 35.4 35.4 2018 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 39.2 39.2 2019 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 9.6 0.0 0.0 44.0 44.0 2020 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 49.9 49.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 611.7 631.0 626.4 645.8 10.0 % 488.4 506.6 500.7 518.9 12.0 % 401.6 418.6 411.8 428.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 565.6 584.9 580.4 599.7 10.0 % 453.1 471.2 465.4 483.5 12.0 % 373.7 390.8 384.0 401.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121001 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121001 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121001 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NNGIEP + OTHERS DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121001 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121001 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2013 01 sc121001 c121.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2013 01 sc121001 sexsi.fp0 NNGUM05A 1.00 2019 01 sc121001 sexsi.exc121 sc121001 sexsi.therm sc121001 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 428.7 275.8 2012.1 1914.3 97.8 325.8 86.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 428.7 274.2 2075.7 1960.8 115.0 279.3 105.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 428.7 274.2 2182.6 2025.2 157.4 214.9 140.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 641.9 274.0 2307.7 2297.8 9.8 1274.7 9.2 0.4 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 641.9 274.0 2441.5 2428.4 13.1 1144.2 12.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 641.9 274.0 2611.3 2589.9 21.3 982.6 18.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 2016 506.2 641.9 274.0 2741.3 2707.4 33.9 865.2 30.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 641.9 274.0 2884.0 2833.4 50.6 739.2 46.2 1.6 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 641.9 274.0 3032.0 2958.6 73.4 614.0 67.6 2.2 0.0 0.4 2019 590.6 683.8 274.0 3198.3 3137.7 60.6 730.6 55.9 1.7 0.0 1.4 2020 621.5 683.8 274.0 3365.2 3276.4 88.7 591.8 82.1 2.4 0.1 2.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 19.1 25.6 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 27.6 34.5 2008 34.9 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 67.7 70.0 2009 67.6 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 103.6 107.1 2010 87.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 130.6 130.6 2011 90.7 43.5 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 135.5 135.5 2012 57.9 43.5 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 106.5 106.5 2013 0.0 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 25.5 0.0 31.9 22.2 54.1 2014 11.6 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 22.9 0.0 0.0 36.6 36.6 2015 22.5 47.1 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 19.7 0.0 0.0 51.3 51.3 2016 29.3 47.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 17.3 0.0 0.0 61.1 61.1 2017 22.5 47.1 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 0.0 57.9 57.9 2018 11.6 47.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 50.9 50.9 2019 0.0 48.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 14.6 0.0 11.7 37.1 48.8 2020 0.0 48.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 11.8 0.0 0.0 41.5 41.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 616.8 636.1 635.0 654.3 10.0 % 497.7 515.8 512.5 530.7 12.0 % 411.8 428.9 424.0 441.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 562.7 582.1 580.9 600.2 10.0 % 457.3 475.5 472.2 490.3 12.0 % 380.7 397.8 392.9 410.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121002 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121002 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121002 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NNGUM05 + NAM BAK DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121002 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121002 sexsi.fix NONE NNGUM05A 1.00 2014 01 sc121002 c121.dem BAK002BA 1.00 2020 01 sc121002 sexsi.fp0 sc121002 sexsi.exc121 sc121002 sexsi.therm sc121002 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 428.7 275.8 2012.1 1914.3 97.8 325.8 86.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 428.7 274.2 2075.7 1960.8 115.0 279.3 105.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 428.7 274.2 2182.6 2025.2 157.4 214.9 140.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 428.7 274.0 2307.7 2080.9 226.8 159.2 206.8 9.0 0.0 0.1 2014 450.9 470.6 274.0 2441.5 2289.5 151.9 246.2 136.5 5.6 0.0 0.1 2015 482.2 470.6 274.0 2611.3 2366.7 244.5 169.0 224.5 8.6 0.0 1.0 2016 506.2 470.6 274.0 2741.3 2407.6 333.6 128.1 308.8 11.3 0.0 2.0 2017 532.6 470.6 274.0 2884.0 2442.2 441.8 93.6 415.6 14.4 0.1 2.8 2018 559.9 470.6 274.0 3032.0 2466.8 565.0 69.0 535.6 17.7 0.2 5.1 2019 590.6 470.6 274.0 3198.3 2486.4 711.2 49.4 680.6 21.3 0.7 17.0 2020 621.5 519.5 274.0 3365.2 2821.7 542.8 103.0 513.9 15.3 0.6 14.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 19.1 25.6 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 27.6 34.5 2008 0.0 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 32.8 35.2 2009 11.6 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 47.5 51.0 2010 22.5 43.5 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 65.2 65.3 2011 29.3 43.5 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 74.0 74.1 2012 22.5 43.5 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 71.1 71.1 2013 11.6 43.5 0.0 0.0 13.5 0.0 3.2 0.0 0.0 65.5 65.5 2014 0.0 44.5 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 4.9 0.0 11.7 48.6 60.3 2015 0.0 44.5 0.0 0.0 14.6 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.0 55.7 55.7 2016 25.5 44.5 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 87.4 87.4 2017 53.5 44.5 0.0 0.0 26.6 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 122.6 122.6 2018 53.5 44.5 0.0 0.0 34.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 130.6 130.6 2019 25.5 44.5 0.0 0.0 42.9 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 112.1 112.1 2020 0.0 45.9 0.0 0.0 32.7 0.1 2.1 0.0 0.0 76.7 76.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 694.7 714.0 699.7 719.0 10.0 % 523.5 541.7 527.7 545.8 12.0 % 408.0 425.1 411.4 428.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 678.3 697.6 683.3 702.6 10.0 % 510.2 528.3 514.3 532.4 12.0 % 396.9 413.9 400.2 417.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121003 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121003 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121003 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NAMBAK2 + NNGIEP + NNGUM05 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121003 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE NAM POT 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121003 sexsi.fix NONE BAK002BA 1.00 2010 01 sc121003 c121.dem NNGIEP1A 1.00 2012 01 sc121003 sexsi.fp0 NNGIEPTA 1.00 2012 01 sc121003 sexsi.exc121 NNGUM05A 1.00 2018 01 sc121003 sexsi.therm POT0001D 1.00 2020 01 sc121003 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 477.6 275.8 2012.1 1975.3 36.7 653.7 31.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 477.6 274.2 2075.7 2030.6 45.1 598.4 40.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 690.9 274.2 2182.6 2176.7 5.9 1784.8 5.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 690.9 274.0 2307.7 2300.1 7.5 1661.4 7.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 690.9 274.0 2441.5 2432.0 9.5 1529.5 9.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 690.9 274.0 2611.3 2598.3 13.0 1363.2 12.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 2016 506.2 690.9 274.0 2741.3 2724.8 16.5 1236.7 15.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 690.9 274.0 2884.0 2862.4 21.7 1099.1 20.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 732.8 274.0 3032.0 3010.8 21.2 1246.3 20.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 2019 590.6 732.8 274.0 3198.3 3170.2 28.1 1087.0 26.5 0.8 0.0 0.5 2020 621.5 744.3 274.0 3365.2 3328.9 36.3 1020.7 33.2 1.0 0.0 1.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 25.5 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 44.7 51.1 2007 88.4 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 116.0 122.8 2008 121.1 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 153.9 156.3 2009 113.4 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 149.3 152.8 2010 90.7 45.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 13.1 0.0 0.0 124.7 124.7 2011 57.9 45.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 93.6 93.6 2012 0.0 48.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 35.7 0.0 31.9 13.2 45.1 2013 11.6 48.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 33.2 0.0 0.0 27.4 27.4 2014 22.5 48.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 30.6 0.0 0.0 41.1 41.1 2015 29.3 48.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 27.3 0.0 0.0 51.3 51.3 2016 25.6 48.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 24.7 0.0 0.0 50.5 50.5 2017 18.1 48.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 22.0 0.0 0.0 46.0 46.0 2018 6.5 49.5 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 24.9 0.0 11.7 32.4 44.1 2019 3.1 49.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 21.7 0.0 0.0 32.6 32.6 2020 0.0 49.8 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 20.4 0.0 15.6 31.5 47.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 671.7 691.0 744.9 764.3 10.0 % 565.3 583.5 614.6 632.7 12.0 % 485.7 502.7 520.2 537.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 580.8 600.1 654.0 673.4 10.0 % 497.7 515.8 547.0 565.1 12.0 % 433.7 450.8 468.3 485.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121004 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121004 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121004 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NAM BAK + NNGUM 5 + NNGEIP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121004 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE NAM POT 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121004 sexsi.fix NONE NNGUM05A 1.00 2012 01 sc121004 c121.dem BAK002BA 1.00 2010 01 sc121004 sexsi.fp0 NNGIEP1A 1.00 2016 01 sc121004 sexsi.exc121 NNGIEPTA 1.00 2016 01 sc121004 sexsi.therm POT0001D 1.00 2018 01 sc121004 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 477.6 275.8 2012.1 1975.3 36.7 653.7 31.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 477.6 274.2 2075.7 2030.6 45.1 598.4 40.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 519.5 274.2 2182.6 2153.7 28.9 771.0 25.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 519.5 274.0 2307.7 2265.3 42.4 659.4 38.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 519.5 274.0 2441.5 2379.3 62.1 545.4 56.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 519.5 274.0 2611.3 2513.6 97.7 411.1 89.6 3.4 0.0 0.1 2016 506.2 732.8 274.0 2741.3 2728.0 13.3 1529.1 12.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 732.8 274.0 2884.0 2867.2 16.9 1390.0 16.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 744.3 274.0 3032.0 3012.3 19.6 1337.3 18.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 2019 590.6 744.3 274.0 3198.3 3173.0 25.3 1176.6 24.0 0.7 0.0 0.5 2020 621.5 744.3 274.0 3365.2 3328.9 36.3 1020.7 33.2 1.0 0.0 1.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 25.5 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 44.7 51.1 2007 65.1 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 92.7 99.5 2008 76.0 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 108.8 111.1 2009 54.8 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 90.7 94.2 2010 22.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 13.1 0.0 0.0 56.6 56.6 2011 46.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 82.2 82.2 2012 67.6 45.9 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 15.4 0.0 11.7 99.8 111.5 2013 87.9 45.9 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 13.2 0.0 0.0 123.1 123.1 2014 93.8 45.9 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 132.5 132.5 2015 64.4 45.9 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 108.0 108.0 2016 6.5 49.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 30.6 0.0 31.9 26.2 58.1 2017 3.1 49.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 27.8 0.0 0.0 25.8 25.8 2018 0.0 49.8 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 26.7 0.0 15.6 24.2 39.8 2019 0.0 49.8 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 23.5 0.0 0.0 27.8 27.8 2020 0.0 49.8 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 20.4 0.0 0.0 31.5 31.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 670.3 689.6 692.8 712.1 10.0 % 556.3 574.4 574.2 592.4 12.0 % 471.0 488.0 485.4 502.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 594.5 613.8 617.0 636.3 10.0 % 501.3 519.4 519.2 537.4 12.0 % 429.6 446.7 444.0 461.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121005 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121005 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121005 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NAM BAK + NNGUM 5 + NNGEIP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121005 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE NAM POT 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121005 sexsi.fix NONE NNGUM05A 1.00 2012 01 sc121005 c121.dem BAK002BA 1.00 2010 01 sc121005 sexsi.fp0 NNGIEP1A 1.00 2016 01 sc121005 sexsi.exc121 NNGIEPTA 1.00 2016 01 sc121005 sexsi.therm POT0001D 1.00 2018 01 sc121005 DUMMY NNGUM01A 0.94 2019-01 sc121005 NNGUM01B 1.20 2019 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 477.6 275.8 2012.1 1975.3 36.7 653.7 31.3 1.6 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 477.6 274.2 2075.7 2030.6 45.1 598.4 40.3 1.9 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 519.5 274.2 2182.6 2153.7 28.9 771.0 25.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 519.5 274.0 2307.7 2265.3 42.4 659.4 38.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 519.5 274.0 2441.5 2379.3 62.1 545.4 56.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 519.5 274.0 2611.3 2513.6 97.7 411.1 89.6 3.4 0.0 0.1 2016 506.2 732.8 274.0 2741.3 2728.0 13.3 1529.1 12.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 732.8 274.0 2884.0 2867.2 16.9 1390.0 16.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 744.3 274.0 3032.0 3012.3 19.6 1337.3 18.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 2019 590.6 783.9 274.0 3198.3 3166.8 31.5 1247.4 30.0 0.9 0.0 0.5 2020 621.5 783.9 274.0 3365.2 3324.5 40.7 1089.7 37.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 25.5 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 44.7 51.1 2007 65.1 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 92.7 99.5 2008 76.0 31.5 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 108.8 111.1 2009 54.8 31.5 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 90.7 94.2 2010 22.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 13.1 0.0 0.0 56.6 56.6 2011 46.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 12.0 0.0 0.0 82.2 82.2 2012 67.6 45.9 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 15.4 0.0 11.7 99.8 111.5 2013 87.9 45.9 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 13.2 0.0 0.0 123.1 123.1 2014 93.8 45.9 0.0 0.0 3.7 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 132.5 132.5 2015 64.4 45.9 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 108.0 108.0 2016 6.5 49.5 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 30.6 0.0 31.9 26.2 58.1 2017 87.6 49.5 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 27.8 0.0 0.0 110.3 110.3 2018 84.5 49.8 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 26.7 0.0 15.6 108.7 124.3 2019 0.0 50.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 24.9 0.0 0.0 27.2 27.2 2020 0.0 50.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 21.8 0.0 0.0 30.9 30.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 722.5 741.8 745.0 764.3 10.0 % 596.9 615.1 614.9 633.0 12.0 % 502.6 519.7 517.0 534.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 644.1 663.4 666.6 685.9 10.0 % 540.3 558.4 558.2 576.4 12.0 % 460.2 477.3 474.6 491.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121006 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121006 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121006 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NAMBAK2 NGIEP + NNGUM05 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121006 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE NAM POT + NNX 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121006 sexsi.fix NONE NNGUM01A 0.94 2008-01 sc121006 c121.dem NNGUM01B 1.20 2008 01 sc121006 sexsi.fp0 BAK002BA 1.00 2010 01 sc121006 sexsi.exc121 NNGIEP1A 1.00 2012 01 sc121006 sexsi.therm NNGIEPTA 1.00 2012 01 sc121006 DUMMY NNGUM05A 1.00 2018 01 sc121006 POT0001D 1.00 2010 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 393.3 281.8 1801.1 1684.6 116.5 319.4 91.7 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 393.3 281.8 1898.6 1750.3 148.3 253.7 117.8 6.2 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 528.8 275.8 2012.1 1983.3 28.8 802.8 23.9 1.2 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 528.8 274.2 2075.7 2040.0 35.8 746.2 31.9 1.5 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 742.0 274.2 2182.6 2177.0 5.6 1941.6 5.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 742.0 274.0 2307.7 2300.5 7.2 1818.1 6.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 742.0 274.0 2441.5 2432.1 9.3 1686.5 8.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 742.0 274.0 2611.3 2597.9 13.4 1520.7 12.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 2016 506.2 742.0 274.0 2741.3 2723.2 18.1 1395.4 16.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 742.0 274.0 2884.0 2860.6 23.4 1257.9 22.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 783.9 274.0 3032.0 3007.3 24.6 1406.9 23.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 2019 590.6 783.9 274.0 3198.3 3166.8 31.5 1247.4 30.0 0.9 0.0 0.5 2020 621.5 783.9 274.0 3365.2 3324.5 40.7 1089.8 37.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 42.8 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 62.0 68.4 2007 109.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 136.7 143.5 2008 127.6 32.0 0.0 0.1 6.2 0.0 6.4 2.2 0.0 159.5 161.7 2009 116.5 32.0 0.0 0.1 7.9 0.0 5.1 2.7 0.0 151.5 154.2 2010 90.7 45.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 16.1 0.0 15.6 122.0 137.6 2011 57.9 45.7 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 14.9 0.0 0.0 90.8 90.8 2012 0.0 49.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 38.8 0.0 31.9 10.8 42.7 2013 11.6 49.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 36.4 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 2014 22.5 49.3 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 33.7 0.0 0.0 38.6 38.6 2015 29.3 49.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 30.4 0.0 0.0 48.9 48.9 2016 22.5 49.3 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 27.9 0.0 0.0 45.0 45.0 2017 11.6 49.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 25.2 0.0 0.0 37.2 37.2 2018 0.0 50.2 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 28.1 0.0 11.7 23.6 35.3 2019 0.0 50.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.0 24.9 0.0 0.0 27.2 27.2 2020 0.0 50.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 21.8 0.0 0.0 30.9 30.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 686.6 705.4 715.4 734.1 10.0 % 582.2 599.8 606.5 624.2 12.0 % 503.6 520.2 524.3 540.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 586.0 604.8 614.8 633.5 10.0 % 507.0 524.6 531.4 549.0 12.0 % 445.7 462.2 466.4 482.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121007 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121007 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121007 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NNGIEP + NAMBAK2+NNGUM05+ DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121007 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE POT0001 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121007 sexsi.fix NONE NNGUM01A 0.94 2008-01 sc121007 c121.dem NNGUM01B 1.20 2008 01 sc121007 sexsi.fp0 NNGIEP1A 1.00 2010 01 sc121007 sexsi.exc121 NNGIEPTA 1.00 2010 01 sc121007 sexsi.therm BAK002BA 1.00 2015 01 sc121007 DUMMY NNGUM05A 1.00 2018 01 sc121007 POT0001D 1.00 2020 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 393.3 281.8 1801.1 1684.6 116.5 319.4 91.7 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 393.3 281.8 1898.6 1750.3 148.3 253.7 117.8 6.2 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 681.5 275.8 2012.1 2006.0 6.0 1631.2 5.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 681.5 274.2 2075.7 2068.8 7.0 1568.4 6.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 681.5 274.2 2182.6 2174.0 8.6 1463.2 8.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 681.5 274.0 2307.7 2296.2 11.5 1341.0 10.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 2014 450.9 681.5 274.0 2441.5 2425.5 16.0 1211.7 14.8 0.6 0.0 0.0 2015 482.2 730.5 274.0 2611.3 2596.0 15.3 1430.1 14.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2016 506.2 730.5 274.0 2741.3 2721.3 20.0 1304.8 18.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 2017 532.6 730.5 274.0 2884.0 2858.4 25.7 1167.8 24.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 2018 559.9 772.4 274.0 3032.0 3005.2 26.8 1316.6 25.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 2019 590.6 772.4 274.0 3198.3 3164.3 34.0 1157.5 32.5 1.0 0.0 0.6 2020 621.5 783.9 274.0 3365.2 3324.5 40.7 1089.8 37.9 1.1 0.0 1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 34.9 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 47.7 53.9 2006 81.8 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 101.0 107.4 2007 102.1 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 129.7 136.5 2008 90.7 32.0 0.0 0.1 6.2 0.0 6.4 2.2 0.0 122.6 124.8 2009 57.9 32.0 0.0 0.1 7.9 0.0 5.1 2.7 0.0 92.9 95.6 2010 0.0 47.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 32.6 0.0 31.9 15.3 47.2 2011 25.5 47.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 31.4 0.0 0.0 42.1 42.1 2012 53.5 47.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 29.3 0.0 0.0 72.3 72.3 2013 65.1 47.6 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 26.8 0.0 0.0 86.5 86.5 2014 48.0 47.6 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 24.2 0.0 0.0 72.3 72.3 2015 29.3 49.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 28.6 0.0 0.0 50.6 50.6 2016 25.6 49.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 26.1 0.0 0.0 49.7 49.7 2017 18.1 49.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 23.4 0.0 0.0 45.3 45.3 2018 6.5 49.9 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 26.3 0.0 11.7 31.7 43.4 2019 3.1 49.9 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 23.2 0.0 0.0 31.9 31.9 2020 0.0 50.2 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 21.8 0.0 15.6 30.9 46.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 674.6 693.4 750.5 769.3 10.0 % 570.8 588.4 622.9 640.5 12.0 % 493.3 509.9 530.8 547.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 572.9 591.6 648.8 667.5 10.0 % 494.2 511.9 546.4 564.0 12.0 % 433.9 450.4 471.3 487.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc121t00 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc121t00 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc121t00 EDL DEMAND C1+C2.1 NNGIEP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc121t00 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc121t00 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2013 01 sc121t00 c121.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2013 01 sc121t00 sexsi.fp0 THB-NT3X -1.0 2008-01 sc121t00 sexsi.exc121 sc121t00 sexsi.therm sc121t00 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 266.8 251.4 281.8 1379.7 1155.0 224.7 98.5 153.1 11.1 0.0 0.0 2006 287.9 251.4 281.8 1502.0 1179.8 322.2 73.6 248.3 16.5 0.0 0.1 2007 315.4 251.4 281.8 1660.0 1203.8 456.2 49.6 377.6 22.7 0.0 0.4 2008 339.0 353.7 281.8 1801.1 1682.7 118.4 256.7 92.5 5.1 0.0 0.0 2009 353.8 353.7 281.8 1898.6 1742.6 156.0 196.8 120.0 6.3 0.0 0.0 2010 371.6 428.7 275.8 2012.1 1914.3 97.8 325.8 86.4 4.3 0.0 0.0 2011 383.3 428.7 274.2 2075.7 1960.8 115.0 279.3 105.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 2012 403.1 428.7 274.2 2182.6 2025.2 157.4 214.9 140.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 2013 426.2 539.6 274.0 2307.7 2279.2 28.4 607.4 26.3 1.1 0.0 0.9 2014 450.9 539.6 274.0 2441.5 2393.9 47.5 492.7 39.6 1.6 0.0 1.7 2015 482.2 539.6 274.0 2611.3 2506.4 104.8 380.2 89.6 3.4 0.1 2.1 2016 506.2 539.6 274.0 2741.3 2565.7 175.5 320.9 156.1 5.7 0.1 4.2 2017 532.6 539.6 274.0 2884.0 2620.3 263.3 266.3 241.6 8.4 0.5 8.7 2018 559.9 539.6 274.0 3032.0 2660.7 370.0 225.9 344.7 11.4 1.3 21.7 2019 590.6 539.6 274.0 3198.3 2701.3 494.5 185.3 468.2 14.6 2.5 30.9 2020 621.5 539.6 274.0 3365.2 2738.7 622.8 148.0 596.1 17.7 3.7 38.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 11.2 0.0 2.0 6.3 0.0 12.8 19.1 2006 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.0 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 19.1 25.6 2007 0.0 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.0 0.0 1.0 6.8 0.0 27.6 34.5 2008 34.9 4.3 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 5.1 2.3 0.0 40.5 42.8 2009 67.6 4.3 0.0 0.1 8.2 0.0 3.9 3.5 0.0 76.4 79.9 2010 87.9 14.8 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 101.9 101.9 2011 90.7 14.8 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 106.8 106.8 2012 57.9 14.8 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 77.8 77.8 2013 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 12.1 0.0 31.9 7.1 39.0 2014 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 9.9 0.0 0.0 10.5 10.5 2015 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 16.1 16.1 2016 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 10.4 0.0 6.4 0.0 0.0 21.5 21.5 2017 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.1 5.3 0.0 0.0 28.0 28.0 2018 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 22.2 0.3 4.5 0.0 0.0 35.5 35.5 2019 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 29.8 0.5 3.7 0.0 0.0 44.1 44.1 2020 0.0 17.5 0.0 0.0 37.6 0.7 3.0 0.0 0.0 52.9 52.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 514.2 533.5 529.0 548.3 10.0 % 401.6 419.7 413.9 432.0 12.0 % 324.7 341.7 335.0 352.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 490.1 509.4 504.8 524.2 10.0 % 382.3 400.4 394.6 412.7 12.0 % 308.9 326.0 319.2 336.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc220000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc220000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc220000 EDL DEMAND C22 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc220000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc220000 sexsi.fix IMPPHAKB2 2007 01 NONE sc220000 c22.dem IMPPHAKB2 2016 01 sc220000 sexsi.fp0 sc220000 sexsi.exc22 sc220000 sexsi.therm sc220000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 32.2 0.0 80.0 139.4 0.0 138.0 0.0 138.0 99.0 1.4 87.6 2006 36.3 0.0 80.0 163.7 0.0 162.1 0.0 162.1 99.0 1.6 87.6 2007 43.1 0.0 160.0 202.5 0.0 202.4 0.0 202.4 100.0 0.0 0.9 2008 47.3 0.0 160.0 231.1 0.0 231.1 0.0 231.1 100.0 0.0 0.9 2009 50.0 0.0 160.0 253.2 0.0 253.2 0.0 253.2 100.0 0.0 0.9 2010 55.9 0.0 160.0 293.9 0.0 293.9 0.0 293.9 100.0 0.0 0.9 2011 60.0 0.0 160.0 315.4 0.0 315.4 0.0 315.4 100.0 0.0 0.9 2012 63.6 0.0 160.0 333.9 0.0 333.8 0.0 333.8 100.0 0.0 0.9 2013 67.3 0.0 160.0 353.6 0.0 353.5 0.0 353.5 100.0 0.0 0.9 2014 71.6 0.0 160.0 375.9 0.0 375.9 0.0 375.9 100.0 0.0 0.9 2015 76.3 0.0 160.0 400.5 0.0 400.5 0.0 400.5 100.0 0.0 0.9 2016 80.8 0.0 240.0 424.4 0.0 424.4 0.0 424.4 100.0 0.0 0.0 2017 85.9 0.0 240.0 451.4 0.0 451.4 0.0 451.4 100.0 0.0 0.0 2018 91.1 0.0 240.0 478.5 0.0 478.5 0.0 478.5 100.0 0.0 0.0 2019 97.0 0.0 240.0 509.5 0.0 509.5 0.0 509.5 100.0 0.0 0.0 2020 102.9 0.0 240.0 540.2 0.0 540.2 0.0 540.2 100.0 0.0 0.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 8.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 11.2 2006 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 9.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 12.7 2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 12.3 2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 14.1 2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 15.4 2010 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.9 17.9 2011 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.2 19.2 2012 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.4 20.4 2013 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.6 21.6 2014 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 22.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.4 25.4 2015 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 24.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.9 26.9 2016 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 25.9 2017 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.5 27.5 2018 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.2 29.2 2019 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 31.1 31.1 2020 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.0 33.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 261.1 261.1 261.1 261.1 10.0 % 195.5 195.5 195.5 195.5 12.0 % 152.2 152.2 152.2 152.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 261.1 261.1 261.1 261.1 10.0 % 195.5 195.5 195.5 195.5 12.0 % 152.2 152.2 152.2 152.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc220700 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc220700 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc220700 EDL DEMAND C22 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc220700 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc220700 sexsi.fix07 IMPPHAKB2 2007 01 NONE sc220700 c22.dem IMPPHAKB2 2018 01 sc220700 sexsi.fp0 sc220700 sexsi.exc22 sc220700 sexsi.therm sc220700 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 32.2 0.0 80.0 139.4 0.0 138.0 0.0 138.0 99.0 1.4 87.6 2006 36.3 0.0 80.0 163.7 0.0 162.1 0.0 162.1 99.0 1.6 87.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 2006 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 10.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 10.0 % 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 12.0 % 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 15.8 15.8 15.8 15.8 10.0 % 15.1 15.1 15.1 15.1 12.0 % 14.4 14.4 14.4 14.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sc221000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sc221000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sc221000 EDL DEMAND C22 TILL 2007 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sc221000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sc221000 sexsi.fix10 IMPPHAKB2 2007 01 NONE sc221000 c22.dem IMPPHAKB2 2018 01 sc221000 sexsi.fp0 sc221000 sexsi.exc22 sc221000 sexsi.therm sc221000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 32.2 0.0 80.0 139.4 0.0 138.0 0.0 138.0 99.0 1.4 87.6 2006 36.3 0.0 80.0 163.7 0.0 162.1 0.0 162.1 99.0 1.6 87.6 2007 43.1 0.0 160.0 202.5 0.0 202.4 0.0 202.4 100.0 0.0 0.9 2008 47.3 0.0 160.0 231.1 0.0 231.1 0.0 231.1 100.0 0.0 0.9 2009 50.0 0.0 160.0 253.2 0.0 253.2 0.0 253.2 100.0 0.0 0.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 8.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.2 11.2 2006 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 9.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.7 12.7 2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.3 12.3 2008 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.1 14.1 2009 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 15.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 10.0 % 42.4 42.4 42.4 42.4 12.0 % 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 45.5 45.5 45.5 45.5 10.0 % 42.4 42.4 42.4 42.4 12.0 % 39.6 39.6 39.6 39.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs00000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs00000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs00000 EDL DEMAND CS XKAMAN3L + NNGIEP DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs00000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 NAM POT CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs00000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs00000 cs.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs00000 sexsi.fp0 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 scs00000 sexsi.exCS HLAMP00G 1.75 2012 01 scs00000 sexsi.therm scs00000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 327.4 296.4 442.5 1682.6 1297.0 385.6 110.8 309.5 18.4 0.0 0.0 2006 355.0 296.4 442.5 1851.9 1330.9 521.0 76.9 441.7 23.9 0.0 0.0 2007 391.5 296.4 442.5 2073.0 1363.0 710.0 44.8 625.2 30.2 0.0 0.0 2008 422.4 448.7 442.5 2271.7 2050.4 221.3 256.2 166.4 7.3 0.0 0.0 2009 441.7 448.7 442.5 2413.9 2102.1 311.8 204.5 248.4 10.3 0.0 0.0 2010 467.1 523.7 436.5 2591.9 2342.8 249.2 264.6 218.3 8.4 0.0 0.0 2011 486.2 523.7 434.9 2697.3 2381.5 315.8 225.9 289.8 10.7 0.0 0.0 2012 514.4 579.8 434.9 2853.1 2584.9 268.2 271.7 244.5 8.6 0.0 0.0 2013 544.3 813.8 434.6 3018.4 2998.7 19.7 1190.4 18.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 2014 576.4 813.8 434.4 3196.3 3165.6 30.8 1023.5 28.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 813.8 434.0 3415.1 3360.6 54.6 828.5 49.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 813.8 434.0 3593.3 3492.0 101.3 697.1 90.8 2.5 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 813.8 434.0 3806.5 3626.9 179.5 562.1 166.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 813.8 434.0 4008.7 3729.1 279.5 459.9 261.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 2019 758.1 813.8 434.0 4236.1 3820.9 415.2 368.2 394.2 9.3 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 813.8 434.0 4464.8 3890.1 574.7 298.9 549.6 12.3 0.0 0.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.8 0.0 2.2 6.3 0.0 22.8 29.1 2006 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 28.9 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 33.6 40.1 2007 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 40.3 0.0 0.9 6.9 0.0 45.6 52.5 2008 49.4 40.9 0.0 0.2 11.5 0.0 5.1 4.7 0.0 96.9 101.5 2009 97.5 40.9 0.0 0.2 16.7 0.0 4.1 5.4 0.0 151.2 156.6 2010 120.0 52.9 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.0 5.3 0.1 0.0 182.0 182.0 2011 109.6 52.9 0.0 0.0 18.7 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 176.8 176.8 2012 62.6 53.7 0.0 0.0 15.9 0.0 5.4 0.0 16.0 126.7 142.7 2013 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 23.8 0.0 31.9 35.0 66.9 2014 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 20.5 0.0 0.0 39.0 39.0 2015 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 16.6 0.0 0.0 44.3 44.3 2016 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 0.0 49.7 49.7 2017 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0 57.1 57.1 2018 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 65.2 65.2 2019 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 75.3 75.3 2020 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 34.7 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 86.3 86.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 931.1 953.4 953.9 976.2 10.0 % 734.4 755.3 753.5 774.4 12.0 % 598.3 617.9 614.4 633.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 891.6 913.9 914.4 936.7 10.0 % 703.8 724.6 722.9 743.7 12.0 % 574.0 593.5 590.0 609.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs00001 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs00001 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs00001 EDL DEMAND CS NNGIEP + NNGUM05 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs00001 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 NAM POT CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs00001 sexsi.fix NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 scs00001 cs.dem NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs00001 sexsi.fp0 NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs00001 sexsi.exCS NNGUM05A 1.00 2017 01 scs00001 sexsi.therm POT0001D 1.00 2020 01 scs00001 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 327.4 296.4 442.5 1682.6 1297.0 385.6 110.8 309.5 18.4 0.0 0.0 2006 355.0 296.4 442.5 1851.9 1330.9 521.0 76.9 441.7 23.9 0.0 0.0 2007 391.5 296.4 442.5 2073.0 1363.0 710.0 44.8 625.2 30.2 0.0 0.0 2008 422.4 448.7 442.5 2271.7 2050.4 221.3 256.2 166.4 7.3 0.0 0.0 2009 441.7 448.7 442.5 2413.9 2102.1 311.8 204.5 248.4 10.3 0.0 0.0 2010 467.1 523.7 436.5 2591.9 2342.8 249.2 264.6 218.3 8.4 0.0 0.0 2011 486.2 523.7 434.9 2697.3 2381.5 315.8 225.9 289.8 10.7 0.0 0.0 2012 514.4 523.7 434.9 2853.1 2423.6 429.5 183.8 398.6 14.0 0.0 0.0 2013 544.3 757.7 434.6 3018.4 2984.6 33.9 955.2 30.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 2014 576.4 757.7 434.4 3196.3 3142.9 53.5 796.9 48.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 757.7 434.0 3415.1 3300.9 114.2 638.9 103.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 757.7 434.0 3593.3 3411.4 181.9 528.4 168.3 4.7 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 799.6 434.0 3806.5 3642.5 164.0 593.0 151.9 4.0 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 799.6 434.0 4008.7 3752.1 256.5 483.3 239.2 6.0 0.0 0.1 2019 758.1 799.6 434.0 4236.1 3847.1 389.0 388.4 368.4 8.7 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 811.2 434.0 4464.8 3985.5 479.3 342.4 457.4 10.2 0.0 1.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.8 0.0 2.2 6.3 0.0 22.8 29.1 2006 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 28.9 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 33.6 40.1 2007 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 40.3 0.0 0.9 6.9 0.0 45.6 52.5 2008 38.7 40.9 0.0 0.2 11.5 0.0 5.1 4.7 0.0 86.1 90.8 2009 75.0 40.9 0.0 0.2 16.7 0.0 4.1 5.4 0.0 128.7 134.1 2010 97.5 52.9 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.0 5.3 0.1 0.0 159.5 159.5 2011 98.9 52.9 0.0 0.0 18.7 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 166.0 166.0 2012 74.2 52.9 0.0 0.0 25.6 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 149.0 149.0 2013 22.5 56.8 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 19.1 0.0 31.9 62.2 94.1 2014 29.3 56.8 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 73.3 73.3 2015 22.5 56.8 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 73.3 73.3 2016 14.7 56.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.0 71.8 71.8 2017 6.5 57.7 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0 11.9 0.0 11.7 62.2 73.9 2018 6.5 57.7 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0 9.7 0.0 0.0 70.0 70.0 2019 3.1 57.7 0.0 0.0 23.4 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.0 76.5 76.5 2020 0.0 58.0 0.0 0.0 28.9 0.0 6.8 0.0 15.6 80.1 95.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 930.8 953.1 1003.2 1025.5 10.0 % 735.6 756.5 784.0 804.8 12.0 % 599.2 618.8 632.8 652.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 893.4 915.7 965.8 988.1 10.0 % 707.0 727.9 755.4 776.2 12.0 % 576.7 596.3 610.3 629.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs00008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs00008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs00008 EDL DEMAND CS HLAMP00 + NNGIEP +XKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs00008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs00008 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs00008 cs.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs00008 sexsi.fp0 HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 scs00008 sexsi.exCS scs00008 sexsi.therm scs00008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 327.4 296.4 442.5 1682.6 1297.0 385.6 110.8 309.5 18.4 0.0 0.0 2006 355.0 296.4 442.5 1851.9 1330.9 521.0 76.9 441.7 23.9 0.0 0.0 2007 391.5 296.4 442.5 2073.0 1363.0 710.0 44.8 625.2 30.2 0.0 0.0 2008 422.4 398.7 442.5 2271.7 1952.1 319.6 141.7 253.2 11.1 0.0 0.0 2009 441.7 398.7 442.5 2413.9 1982.0 431.9 111.8 352.6 14.6 0.0 0.0 2010 467.1 529.8 436.5 2591.9 2395.2 196.8 245.0 170.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 2011 486.2 529.8 434.9 2697.3 2436.7 260.6 203.5 235.4 8.7 0.0 0.0 2012 514.4 529.8 434.9 2853.1 2487.9 365.2 152.3 337.3 11.8 0.0 0.0 2013 544.3 763.8 434.6 3018.4 2993.1 25.4 979.6 23.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2014 576.4 763.8 434.4 3196.3 3155.1 41.2 817.5 37.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 776.6 434.0 3415.1 3346.1 69.0 687.9 61.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 776.6 434.0 3593.3 3464.5 128.8 569.6 117.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 776.6 434.0 3806.5 3588.4 218.0 445.6 201.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 776.6 434.0 4008.7 3675.9 332.8 358.2 312.5 7.8 0.0 0.0 2019 758.1 776.6 434.0 4236.1 3756.9 479.2 277.1 456.1 10.8 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 776.6 434.0 4464.8 3811.0 653.8 223.0 627.3 14.0 0.0 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.8 0.0 2.2 6.3 0.0 22.8 29.1 2006 10.7 4.1 0.0 0.2 28.9 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 42.3 48.9 2007 22.5 4.1 0.0 0.2 40.3 0.0 0.9 6.9 0.0 66.1 73.0 2008 61.2 32.2 0.0 0.2 17.1 0.0 2.8 5.5 0.0 107.8 113.3 2009 85.8 32.2 0.0 0.2 23.5 0.0 2.2 6.6 0.0 139.3 145.9 2010 97.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 4.9 0.1 16.0 148.9 164.9 2011 102.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 158.3 158.3 2012 69.1 45.0 0.0 0.0 21.7 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 132.8 132.8 2013 6.6 48.9 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 19.6 0.0 31.9 37.4 69.3 2014 3.1 48.9 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 38.1 38.1 2015 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 13.8 0.0 0.0 39.5 39.5 2016 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 45.4 45.4 2017 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 53.3 53.3 2018 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 62.0 62.0 2019 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 28.9 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 72.5 72.5 2020 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 39.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 84.2 84.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 913.6 937.2 937.7 961.3 10.0 % 723.0 745.0 743.5 765.5 12.0 % 591.1 611.7 608.6 629.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 882.7 906.4 906.8 930.5 10.0 % 699.0 721.0 719.5 741.5 12.0 % 572.0 592.6 589.5 610.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs08000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs08000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs08000 EDL DEMAND CS NAM NGIEP + XKAMAN3K DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs08000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs08000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs08000 cs08.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs08000 sexsi.fp0 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 scs08000 sexsi.exCS scs08000 sexsi.therm scs08000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 288.8 296.4 442.5 1519.1 1258.5 260.6 149.3 189.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 296.4 442.5 1665.8 1293.6 372.2 114.2 296.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 296.4 442.5 1862.4 1333.8 528.6 74.0 449.2 24.1 0.0 0.0 2008 422.4 448.7 442.5 2271.7 2050.4 221.3 256.2 166.4 7.3 0.0 0.0 2009 441.7 448.7 442.5 2413.9 2102.1 311.8 204.5 248.5 10.3 0.0 0.0 2010 467.1 523.7 436.5 2591.9 2342.8 249.2 264.6 218.3 8.4 0.0 0.0 2011 486.2 523.7 434.9 2697.3 2381.5 315.8 225.9 289.8 10.7 0.0 0.0 2012 514.4 523.7 434.9 2853.1 2423.6 429.5 183.8 398.6 14.0 0.0 0.0 2013 544.3 757.7 434.6 3018.4 2984.6 33.9 955.2 30.6 1.0 0.0 0.0 2014 576.4 757.7 434.4 3196.4 3142.9 53.5 796.9 48.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 757.7 434.0 3415.1 3301.0 114.2 638.9 103.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 757.7 434.0 3593.3 3411.4 181.9 528.4 168.3 4.7 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 757.7 434.0 3806.5 3513.4 293.0 426.4 274.3 7.2 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 757.7 434.0 4008.6 3591.8 416.9 348.0 395.5 9.9 0.0 0.1 2019 758.1 757.7 434.0 4236.1 3656.1 580.0 283.7 554.4 13.1 0.0 0.4 2020 799.1 757.7 434.0 4464.9 3708.8 756.0 231.0 729.3 16.3 0.0 2.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 13.3 0.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 14.5 20.5 2006 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.0 0.0 2.3 6.2 0.0 23.9 30.2 2007 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 29.4 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 34.1 40.7 2008 38.7 40.9 0.0 0.2 11.5 0.0 5.1 4.7 0.0 86.1 90.8 2009 75.0 40.9 0.0 0.2 16.7 0.0 4.1 5.4 0.0 128.7 134.1 2010 97.5 52.9 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.0 5.3 0.1 0.0 159.5 159.5 2011 98.9 52.9 0.0 0.0 18.7 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 166.0 166.0 2012 62.6 52.9 0.0 0.0 25.6 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 137.4 137.4 2013 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 19.1 0.0 31.9 39.7 71.6 2014 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 3.2 0.0 15.9 0.0 0.0 44.1 44.1 2015 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.0 12.8 0.0 0.0 50.8 50.8 2016 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.0 57.1 57.1 2017 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 17.6 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 65.9 65.9 2018 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 25.1 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 75.0 75.0 2019 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 35.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 86.1 86.1 2020 0.0 56.8 0.0 0.0 45.7 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 97.9 97.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 931.5 953.0 946.3 967.8 10.0 % 720.4 740.5 732.7 752.8 12.0 % 576.6 595.4 586.9 605.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 898.4 919.9 913.2 934.7 10.0 % 694.3 714.4 706.6 726.7 12.0 % 555.6 574.4 565.9 584.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs08008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs08008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs08008 EDL DEMAND CS HLAMP00 + NNGIEP +XKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs08008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs08008 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs08008 cs08.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs08008 sexsi.fp0 HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 scs08008 sexsi.exCS XKATAM1C 1.00 2015 01 scs08008 sexsi.therm scs08008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 288.8 296.4 442.5 1519.1 1258.5 260.6 149.3 189.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 296.4 442.5 1665.8 1293.6 372.2 114.2 296.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 296.4 442.5 1862.4 1333.8 528.6 74.0 449.2 24.1 0.0 0.0 2008 422.4 398.7 442.5 2271.7 1952.1 319.6 141.7 253.2 11.1 0.0 0.0 2009 441.7 398.7 442.5 2413.9 1982.0 431.9 111.8 352.6 14.6 0.0 0.0 2010 467.1 529.8 436.5 2591.9 2395.2 196.8 245.0 170.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 2011 486.2 529.8 434.9 2697.3 2436.6 260.6 203.5 235.4 8.7 0.0 0.0 2012 514.4 529.8 434.9 2853.1 2487.9 365.2 152.3 337.3 11.8 0.0 0.0 2013 544.3 763.8 434.6 3018.4 2993.1 25.4 979.6 23.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2014 576.4 763.8 434.4 3196.4 3155.1 41.2 817.5 37.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 776.6 434.0 3415.1 3346.1 69.0 687.9 61.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 776.6 434.0 3593.3 3464.5 128.8 569.6 117.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 776.6 434.0 3806.5 3588.4 218.0 445.6 201.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 776.6 434.0 4008.6 3675.9 332.8 358.2 312.4 7.8 0.0 0.0 2019 758.1 776.6 434.0 4236.1 3756.9 479.2 277.1 456.1 10.8 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 776.6 434.0 4464.9 3811.0 653.8 223.0 627.3 14.0 0.0 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 13.3 0.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 14.5 20.5 2006 10.7 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.0 0.0 2.3 6.2 0.0 32.6 38.9 2007 22.5 4.1 0.0 0.2 29.4 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 54.6 61.2 2008 61.2 32.2 0.0 0.2 17.1 0.0 2.8 5.5 0.0 107.8 113.3 2009 85.8 32.2 0.0 0.2 23.5 0.0 2.2 6.6 0.0 139.3 145.9 2010 97.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 4.9 0.1 16.0 148.9 164.9 2011 102.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 158.3 158.3 2012 69.1 45.0 0.0 0.0 21.7 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 132.8 132.8 2013 6.6 48.9 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 19.6 0.0 31.9 37.4 69.3 2014 3.1 48.9 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 38.1 38.1 2015 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 13.8 0.0 6.4 39.5 45.9 2016 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 45.4 45.4 2017 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 53.3 53.3 2018 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 62.0 62.0 2019 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 28.9 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 72.5 72.5 2020 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 39.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 84.2 84.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 890.4 913.2 917.0 939.9 10.0 % 701.0 722.3 723.6 744.9 12.0 % 570.4 590.3 589.5 609.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 858.7 881.6 885.3 908.2 10.0 % 676.2 697.5 698.8 720.1 12.0 % 550.5 570.4 569.6 589.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs08009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs08009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs08009 EDL DEMAND CS NAM NGIEP + XKAMAN3K DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs08009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs08009 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs08009 cs08.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs08009 sexsi.fp0 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 scs08009 sexsi.exCS HLAMP00G 1.75 2012 01 scs08009 sexsi.therm scs08009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 330.0 296.4 442.5 1709.4 1302.9 406.5 104.9 330.0 19.3 0.0 0.0 2006 364.0 296.4 442.5 1911.4 1341.1 570.3 66.7 489.6 25.6 0.0 0.0 2007 404.8 296.4 442.5 2156.5 1371.5 785.0 36.3 698.5 32.4 0.0 0.0 2008 486.4 458.7 442.5 2620.4 2151.3 469.2 155.4 392.3 15.0 0.0 0.0 2009 504.5 458.7 442.5 2769.7 2181.3 588.4 125.3 508.8 18.4 0.0 0.0 2010 529.1 533.7 436.5 2956.4 2447.0 509.4 160.3 468.2 15.8 0.0 0.0 2011 550.5 533.7 434.9 3076.0 2471.6 604.4 135.8 571.9 18.6 0.0 0.0 2012 581.4 566.2 434.9 3248.4 2697.7 550.8 155.4 518.8 16.0 0.0 0.0 2013 614.4 800.2 434.6 3433.1 3376.1 57.0 809.4 51.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 2014 650.3 800.2 434.4 3633.4 3519.5 113.9 666.0 102.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 2015 694.0 800.2 434.0 3877.8 3668.6 209.2 516.9 194.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 2016 731.2 800.2 434.0 4085.7 3764.1 321.6 421.4 302.5 7.4 0.0 0.0 2017 775.4 800.2 434.0 4332.8 3855.9 476.8 329.6 454.3 10.5 0.0 0.1 2018 818.6 800.2 434.0 4574.0 3918.2 655.7 267.3 629.8 13.8 0.0 0.7 2019 867.3 800.2 434.0 4845.9 3977.7 868.1 207.8 841.2 17.4 0.1 3.0 2020 917.3 800.2 434.0 5125.5 4030.1 1095.0 155.4 1066.9 20.8 0.4 7.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 22.0 0.0 2.1 6.3 0.0 24.2 30.5 2006 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 31.9 0.0 1.3 6.6 0.0 36.8 43.4 2007 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 44.8 0.0 0.7 7.1 0.0 50.3 57.3 2008 48.2 15.9 0.0 0.2 25.8 0.0 3.1 6.4 0.0 87.0 93.4 2009 95.0 15.9 0.0 0.2 33.0 0.0 2.5 6.6 0.0 141.6 148.2 2010 117.4 26.4 0.0 0.0 30.0 0.0 3.2 0.1 0.0 170.7 170.7 2011 108.4 26.4 0.0 0.0 36.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 168.3 168.4 2012 62.6 27.1 0.0 0.0 32.9 0.0 3.1 0.0 16.0 119.5 135.5 2013 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 16.2 0.0 31.9 18.2 50.1 2014 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 24.4 24.4 2015 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 33.2 33.2 2016 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 0.0 8.4 0.0 0.0 41.9 41.9 2017 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 28.7 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 53.2 53.2 2018 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 39.6 0.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 65.3 65.3 2019 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 52.5 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 79.4 79.4 2020 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 66.4 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 94.3 94.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 916.8 941.2 939.5 964.0 10.0 % 716.2 739.0 735.3 758.1 12.0 % 579.4 600.7 595.5 616.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 892.7 917.1 915.4 939.9 10.0 % 697.2 720.0 716.3 739.1 12.0 % 564.2 585.5 580.2 601.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


============================================================================================= scs10008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs10008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs10008 EDL DEMAND CS HLAMP00 + NNGIEP +XKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs10008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs10008 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs10008 cs10.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs10008 sexsi.fp0 HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 scs10008 sexsi.exCS scs10008 sexsi.therm scs10008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 288.8 296.4 442.5 1519.1 1258.5 260.6 149.3 189.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 296.4 442.5 1665.8 1293.6 372.2 114.2 296.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 296.4 442.5 1862.4 1333.8 528.6 74.0 449.2 24.1 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 398.7 442.5 2032.2 1865.8 166.4 228.0 121.9 6.0 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 398.7 442.5 2151.8 1913.6 238.2 180.2 178.7 8.3 0.0 0.0 2010 467.1 529.8 436.5 2591.9 2395.2 196.8 245.0 170.2 6.6 0.0 0.0 2011 486.2 529.8 434.9 2697.3 2436.6 260.6 203.5 235.4 8.7 0.0 0.0 2012 514.4 529.8 434.9 2853.1 2487.9 365.2 152.3 337.3 11.8 0.0 0.0 2013 544.3 763.8 434.6 3018.4 2993.1 25.4 979.6 23.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 2014 576.4 763.8 434.4 3196.3 3155.1 41.2 817.5 37.5 1.2 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 776.6 434.0 3415.1 3346.1 69.0 687.9 61.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 776.6 434.0 3593.3 3464.5 128.8 569.6 117.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 776.6 434.0 3806.5 3588.4 218.0 445.6 201.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 776.6 434.0 4008.6 3675.9 332.8 358.2 312.4 7.8 0.0 0.0 2019 758.1 776.6 434.0 4236.1 3756.9 479.2 277.1 456.1 10.8 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 776.6 434.0 4464.8 3811.0 653.8 223.0 627.3 14.0 0.0 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 13.3 0.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 14.5 20.5 2006 10.7 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.0 0.0 2.3 6.2 0.0 32.6 38.9 2007 22.5 4.1 0.0 0.2 29.4 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 54.6 61.2 2008 61.2 32.2 0.0 0.2 8.5 0.0 4.6 3.8 0.0 97.5 101.3 2009 85.8 32.2 0.0 0.2 12.3 0.0 3.6 5.1 0.0 126.8 131.9 2010 97.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 4.9 0.1 16.0 148.9 164.9 2011 102.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 15.4 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.0 158.3 158.3 2012 69.1 45.0 0.0 0.0 21.7 0.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 132.8 132.8 2013 6.6 48.9 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.0 19.6 0.0 31.9 37.4 69.3 2014 3.1 48.9 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 16.4 0.0 0.0 38.1 38.1 2015 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 13.8 0.0 0.0 39.5 39.5 2016 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 45.4 45.4 2017 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 53.3 53.3 2018 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 62.0 62.0 2019 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 28.9 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 72.5 72.5 2020 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 39.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 84.2 84.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 875.5 896.2 899.6 920.4 10.0 % 687.6 707.0 708.1 727.5 12.0 % 558.2 576.4 575.7 593.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 842.8 863.6 866.9 887.7 10.0 % 661.9 681.3 682.4 701.8 12.0 % 537.5 555.6 555.0 573.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs10009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs10009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs10009 EDL DEMAND CS NAM NGIEP + XKAMAN3L DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs10009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs10009 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs10009 cs10.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs10009 sexsi.fp0 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 scs10009 sexsi.exCS HLAMP00G 1.75 2012 01 scs10009 sexsi.therm scs10009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 330.0 296.4 442.5 1709.4 1302.9 406.5 104.9 330.0 19.3 0.0 0.0 2006 364.0 296.4 442.5 1911.4 1341.1 570.3 66.7 489.6 25.6 0.0 0.0 2007 404.8 296.4 442.5 2156.5 1371.5 785.0 36.3 698.5 32.4 0.0 0.0 2008 438.9 458.7 442.5 2375.5 2089.5 286.0 217.1 225.2 9.5 0.0 0.0 2009 454.5 458.7 442.5 2500.8 2124.4 376.4 182.3 304.2 12.2 0.0 0.0 2010 529.1 533.7 436.5 2956.4 2447.0 509.4 160.3 468.2 15.8 0.0 0.0 2011 550.5 533.7 434.9 3076.0 2471.6 604.4 135.8 571.9 18.6 0.0 0.0 2012 581.4 566.2 434.9 3248.4 2697.7 550.8 155.4 518.8 16.0 0.0 0.0 2013 614.4 800.2 434.6 3433.1 3376.1 57.0 809.4 51.2 1.5 0.0 0.0 2014 650.3 800.2 434.4 3633.4 3519.5 113.9 666.0 102.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 2015 694.0 800.2 434.0 3877.8 3668.6 209.2 516.9 194.5 5.0 0.0 0.0 2016 731.2 800.2 434.0 4085.7 3764.1 321.6 421.4 302.5 7.4 0.0 0.0 2017 775.4 800.2 434.0 4332.8 3855.9 476.8 329.6 454.3 10.5 0.0 0.1 2018 818.6 800.2 434.0 4574.0 3918.2 655.7 267.3 629.8 13.8 0.0 0.7 2019 867.3 800.2 434.0 4845.9 3977.7 868.1 207.8 841.2 17.4 0.1 3.0 2020 917.3 800.2 434.0 5125.5 4030.1 1095.0 155.4 1066.9 20.8 0.4 7.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 22.0 0.0 2.1 6.3 0.0 24.2 30.5 2006 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 31.9 0.0 1.3 6.6 0.0 36.8 43.4 2007 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 44.8 0.0 0.7 7.1 0.0 50.3 57.3 2008 48.2 15.9 0.0 0.2 15.2 0.0 4.3 5.2 0.0 75.2 80.3 2009 95.0 15.9 0.0 0.2 20.3 0.0 3.6 6.1 0.0 127.7 133.9 2010 117.4 26.4 0.0 0.0 30.0 0.0 3.2 0.1 0.0 170.7 170.7 2011 108.4 26.4 0.0 0.0 36.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 168.3 168.4 2012 62.6 27.1 0.0 0.0 32.9 0.0 3.1 0.0 16.0 119.5 135.5 2013 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 0.0 16.2 0.0 31.9 18.2 50.1 2014 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.0 13.3 0.0 0.0 24.4 24.4 2015 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 33.2 33.2 2016 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 19.3 0.0 8.4 0.0 0.0 41.9 41.9 2017 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 28.7 0.0 6.6 0.0 0.0 53.2 53.2 2018 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 39.6 0.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 65.3 65.3 2019 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 52.5 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 79.4 79.4 2020 0.0 31.0 0.0 0.0 66.4 0.1 3.1 0.0 0.0 94.3 94.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 900.0 923.3 922.8 946.1 10.0 % 701.0 722.8 720.1 741.9 12.0 % 565.7 586.1 581.8 602.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 875.1 898.4 897.9 921.2 10.0 % 681.4 703.1 700.4 722.2 12.0 % 549.8 570.2 565.8 586.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


============================================================================================= scs15008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs15008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs15008 EDL DEMAND CS HLAMP00 + NNGIEP +XKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs15008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs15008 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs15008 cs15.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs15008 sexsi.fp0 HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 scs15008 sexsi.exCS XKATAM1C 1.00 2015 01 scs15008 sexsi.therm scs15008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 288.8 296.4 442.5 1519.1 1258.5 260.6 149.3 189.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 296.4 442.5 1665.8 1293.6 372.2 114.2 296.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 296.4 442.5 1862.4 1333.8 528.6 74.0 449.2 24.1 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 398.7 442.5 2032.2 1865.8 166.4 228.0 121.9 6.0 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 398.7 442.5 2151.8 1913.6 238.2 180.2 178.7 8.3 0.0 0.0 2010 412.7 529.8 436.5 2305.8 2230.8 75.0 409.4 62.9 2.7 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 529.8 434.9 2391.0 2285.5 105.4 354.6 90.7 3.8 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 529.8 434.9 2516.5 2357.5 158.9 282.6 141.0 5.6 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 763.8 434.6 2661.1 2649.8 11.4 1322.9 10.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 2014 504.2 763.8 434.4 2817.5 2801.7 15.8 1171.0 14.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 776.6 434.0 3415.2 3346.1 69.1 687.9 61.3 1.8 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 776.6 434.0 3593.3 3464.5 128.8 569.6 117.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 776.6 434.0 3806.5 3588.4 218.0 445.6 201.9 5.3 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 776.6 434.0 4008.7 3675.9 332.8 358.2 312.5 7.8 0.0 0.0 2019 758.1 776.6 434.0 4236.1 3756.9 479.2 277.1 456.1 10.8 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 776.6 434.0 4464.9 3811.0 653.8 223.0 627.3 14.0 0.0 0.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 13.3 0.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 14.5 20.5 2006 10.7 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.0 0.0 2.3 6.2 0.0 32.6 38.9 2007 22.5 4.1 0.0 0.2 29.4 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 54.6 61.2 2008 61.2 32.2 0.0 0.2 8.5 0.0 4.6 3.8 0.0 97.5 101.3 2009 85.8 32.2 0.0 0.2 12.3 0.0 3.6 5.1 0.0 126.8 131.9 2010 97.5 45.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 8.2 0.0 16.0 138.5 154.6 2011 102.0 45.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 146.0 146.1 2012 69.1 45.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 117.8 117.8 2013 6.6 48.9 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 26.5 0.0 31.9 29.7 61.6 2014 3.1 48.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 23.4 0.0 0.0 29.6 29.6 2015 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 13.8 0.0 6.4 39.5 45.9 2016 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.0 11.4 0.0 0.0 45.4 45.4 2017 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 53.3 53.3 2018 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 20.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 0.0 62.0 62.0 2019 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 28.9 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 72.5 72.5 2020 0.0 49.1 0.0 0.0 39.5 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 84.2 84.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 848.1 868.8 874.8 895.5 10.0 % 664.2 683.6 686.8 706.2 12.0 % 538.2 556.4 557.4 575.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 809.9 830.6 836.5 857.3 10.0 % 633.9 653.2 656.4 675.8 12.0 % 513.5 531.7 532.7 550.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= scs15009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL scs15009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL scs15009 EDL DEMAND CS NAM NGIEP + XKAMAN3K DEPT OF ELECTRICITY scs15009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2005 CAPACITY OPTIMIZATION 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- scs15009 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.10 2013 01 scs15009 cs15.dem NNGIEPTA 1.10 2013 01 scs15009 sexsi.fp0 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 scs15009 sexsi.exCS HLAMP00G 1.75 2012 01 scs15009 sexsi.therm scs15009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 288.8 296.4 442.5 1519.1 1258.5 260.6 149.3 189.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 296.4 442.5 1665.8 1293.6 372.2 114.2 296.4 17.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 296.4 442.5 1862.4 1333.8 528.6 74.0 449.2 24.1 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 448.7 442.5 2032.2 1929.4 102.7 377.2 68.5 3.4 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 448.7 442.5 2151.8 1997.8 154.0 308.8 112.3 5.2 0.0 0.0 2010 412.7 523.7 436.5 2305.8 2199.5 106.3 407.9 87.7 3.8 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 523.7 434.9 2391.0 2250.1 140.9 357.3 124.4 5.2 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 579.8 434.9 2516.5 2413.5 103.0 443.1 89.3 3.5 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 813.8 434.6 2661.1 2651.7 9.4 1537.4 8.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2014 504.2 813.8 434.4 2817.5 2804.7 12.7 1384.3 11.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 2015 615.8 813.8 434.0 3415.2 3360.6 54.6 828.4 49.6 1.5 0.0 0.0 2016 648.0 813.8 434.0 3593.3 3492.0 101.3 697.1 90.8 2.5 0.0 0.0 2017 686.6 813.8 434.0 3806.5 3626.9 179.5 562.1 166.4 4.4 0.0 0.0 2018 717.4 813.8 434.0 4008.7 3729.1 279.5 459.9 261.2 6.5 0.0 0.0 2019 758.1 813.8 434.0 4236.1 3820.9 415.3 368.2 394.2 9.3 0.0 0.1 2020 799.1 813.8 434.0 4464.9 3890.1 574.7 298.9 549.6 12.3 0.0 0.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 13.3 0.0 3.0 6.0 0.0 14.5 20.5 2006 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 20.0 0.0 2.3 6.2 0.0 23.9 30.2 2007 2.0 4.1 0.0 0.2 29.4 0.0 1.5 6.5 0.0 34.1 40.7 2008 49.4 40.9 0.0 0.2 5.0 0.0 7.5 2.9 0.0 88.0 90.9 2009 97.5 40.9 0.0 0.2 7.9 0.0 6.2 3.6 0.0 140.2 143.9 2010 120.0 52.9 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 170.7 170.8 2011 109.6 52.9 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 163.6 163.7 2012 62.6 53.7 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 8.9 0.0 16.0 113.4 129.4 2013 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 30.7 0.0 31.9 27.4 59.3 2014 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.0 27.7 0.0 0.0 30.7 30.7 2015 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 16.6 0.0 0.0 44.3 44.3 2016 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 13.9 0.0 0.0 49.7 49.7 2017 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0 57.1 57.1 2018 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 16.8 0.0 9.2 0.0 0.0 65.2 65.2 2019 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 0.0 75.3 75.3 2020 0.0 57.6 0.0 0.0 34.7 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 86.3 86.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 867.6 886.8 890.4 909.6 10.0 % 677.5 695.5 696.5 714.6 12.0 % 547.0 563.9 563.0 580.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 820.2 839.4 843.0 862.2 10.0 % 640.0 658.0 659.1 677.1 12.0 % 516.7 533.6 532.7 549.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000000 EDL DEMAND S EXISTING PLANT ONLY DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000000 sexsi.fix NONE NONE ss000000 S.dem ss000000 sexsi.fp0 ss000000 sexsi.exS ss000000 sexsi.therm ss000000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 45.1 80.7 239.4 108.9 129.2 45.5 125.8 52.6 1.3 57.8 2009 51.9 45.1 80.7 262.1 114.6 146.0 39.8 142.6 54.4 1.4 59.2 2010 54.5 45.1 80.7 286.1 120.4 164.1 33.9 160.6 56.1 1.6 60.2 2011 58.3 45.1 80.7 306.2 125.1 179.4 29.3 175.8 57.4 1.8 61.8 2012 64.1 45.1 80.7 336.6 131.5 203.1 22.9 199.4 59.3 2.0 64.5 2013 68.0 45.1 80.7 357.2 135.1 219.9 19.3 216.1 60.5 2.2 67.7 2014 72.1 45.1 80.4 378.9 138.5 238.0 15.9 235.6 62.2 2.4 70.1 2015 76.8 45.1 80.0 403.2 141.5 259.1 12.8 259.1 64.2 2.6 73.8 2016 81.4 45.1 80.0 427.6 144.0 280.7 10.3 280.7 65.7 2.8 75.9 2017 89.7 45.1 80.0 471.0 147.6 320.2 6.8 320.2 68.0 3.2 94.3 2018 94.9 45.1 80.0 498.1 149.3 342.0 5.1 342.0 68.7 6.8 1024.4 2019 100.6 45.1 80.0 528.3 150.8 363.0 3.5 363.0 68.7 14.5 1508.7 2020 106.5 45.1 80.0 559.4 152.0 383.9 2.4 383.9 68.6 23.5 1883.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 2008 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 7.7 7.7 2009 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.9 8.9 2010 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.3 0.7 0.0 0.0 10.1 10.2 2011 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.2 11.2 2012 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 12.8 2013 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.9 14.0 2014 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 15.2 15.2 2015 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.7 16.7 2016 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 18.1 18.1 2017 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 19.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.7 20.7 2018 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 20.9 1.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 22.8 22.8 2019 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 22.1 2.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 25.6 25.6 2020 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 23.4 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.7 28.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 187.5 187.6 187.5 187.6 10.0 % 135.2 135.3 135.2 135.3 12.0 % 101.6 101.7 101.6 101.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 184.6 184.7 184.6 184.7 10.0 % 132.6 132.7 132.6 132.7 12.0 % 99.2 99.3 99.2 99.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000001 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000001 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000001 EDL DEMAND S EXISTING PLANT ONLY DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000001 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE ONE MORE INTERCONNECTION --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000001 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 NONE ss000001 S.dem ss000001 sexsi.fp0 ss000001 sexsi.exS ss000001 sexsi.therm ss000001 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 86.7 76.8 67.6 73.9 45.2 0.0 0.5 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 93.8 92.2 60.5 89.1 47.9 0.0 0.5 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 101.1 109.4 53.3 106.2 50.5 0.0 0.5 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 2010 54.5 45.1 160.6 286.1 120.4 165.7 33.9 162.2 56.7 0.0 0.6 2011 58.3 45.1 160.6 306.2 125.1 181.1 29.3 177.5 58.0 0.0 0.6 2012 64.1 45.1 160.6 336.6 131.5 205.1 22.9 201.4 59.8 0.0 0.6 2013 68.0 45.1 160.6 357.2 135.1 222.1 19.3 218.1 61.1 0.0 0.7 2014 72.1 45.1 160.4 378.9 138.5 240.4 15.9 237.9 62.8 0.0 0.7 2015 76.8 45.1 160.0 403.2 141.5 261.7 12.8 261.7 64.9 0.0 0.7 2016 81.4 45.1 160.0 427.6 144.0 283.6 10.3 283.6 66.3 0.0 0.8 2017 89.7 45.1 160.0 471.0 147.6 323.4 6.8 323.4 68.7 0.0 1.3 2018 94.9 45.1 160.0 498.1 149.3 348.7 5.1 348.7 70.0 0.1 26.7 2019 100.6 45.1 160.0 528.3 150.8 377.2 3.5 377.2 71.4 0.3 29.8 2020 106.5 45.1 160.0 559.4 152.0 406.9 2.4 406.9 72.7 0.4 39.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.9 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 2008 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.6 2009 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 2010 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.9 0.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.9 9.9 2011 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.9 11.0 2012 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.5 12.5 2013 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 13.6 13.6 2014 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 14.5 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 14.9 14.9 2015 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 16.3 16.3 2016 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 17.3 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 17.7 17.7 2017 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 19.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 20.2 20.2 2018 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 21.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 21.8 21.8 2019 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 23.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 23.6 23.6 2020 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 24.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.5 25.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 179.1 179.2 179.1 179.2 10.0 % 131.4 131.5 131.4 131.5 12.0 % 100.4 100.5 100.4 100.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 176.2 176.3 176.2 176.3 10.0 % 128.8 128.9 128.8 128.9 12.0 % 98.1 98.1 98.1 98.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000002 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000002 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000002 EDL DEMAND S XESET 1, 2 AND 3 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000002 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE IMPBANG2 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000002 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 XESET01A 2.43 2008-01 ss000002 S.dem XESET01S 2.25 2008 01 ss000002 sexsi.fp0 XESET02B 2.61 2008 01 ss000002 sexsi.exS XESET03A 1.62 2008 01 ss000002 sexsi.therm TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 ss000002 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 86.7 76.8 67.6 73.9 45.2 0.0 0.5 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 93.8 92.2 60.5 89.1 47.9 0.0 0.5 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 101.1 109.4 53.3 106.2 50.5 0.0 0.5 2008 49.4 129.8 160.6 239.4 164.0 75.4 284.1 72.9 30.5 0.0 0.4 2009 51.9 129.8 160.6 262.1 173.2 88.8 274.9 86.3 32.9 0.0 0.4 2010 54.5 129.8 160.6 286.1 182.6 103.5 265.5 100.9 35.3 0.0 0.4 2011 58.3 129.8 160.6 306.2 190.3 115.9 257.8 113.2 37.0 0.0 0.4 2012 64.1 129.8 160.6 336.6 201.6 135.0 246.6 132.3 39.3 0.0 0.5 2013 68.0 129.8 160.6 357.2 208.8 148.4 239.3 145.5 40.7 0.0 0.5 2014 72.1 129.8 160.4 378.9 216.3 162.5 231.8 160.7 42.4 0.0 0.5 2015 76.8 129.8 160.0 403.2 224.7 178.5 223.4 178.5 44.3 0.0 0.5 2016 81.4 129.8 160.0 427.6 232.9 194.7 215.2 194.7 45.5 0.0 0.5 2017 89.7 129.8 160.0 471.0 247.1 223.8 201.0 223.8 47.5 0.0 0.5 2018 94.9 129.8 160.0 498.1 255.7 242.4 192.4 242.4 48.7 0.0 0.5 2019 100.6 129.8 160.0 528.3 265.0 263.3 183.1 263.3 49.8 0.0 2.9 2020 106.5 129.8 160.0 559.4 274.3 285.0 173.9 285.0 50.9 0.1 29.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 18.8 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.3 21.3 2005 41.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 45.0 45.0 2006 43.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 47.9 47.9 2007 20.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 26.7 26.7 2008 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.9 2009 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 5.5 0.0 0.0 1.9 1.9 2010 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.0 5.3 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 2011 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 2012 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0 4.9 0.0 0.0 5.3 5.3 2013 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 6.2 6.2 2014 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 9.8 0.0 4.6 0.0 0.0 7.3 7.3 2015 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 8.5 8.5 2016 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 11.9 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.0 9.7 9.7 2017 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 13.7 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 11.7 11.7 2018 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 14.8 0.0 3.8 0.0 0.0 13.0 13.0 2019 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 16.1 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 14.5 14.5 2020 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 17.4 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 16.0 16.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 207.2 207.3 207.2 207.3 10.0 % 174.3 174.4 174.3 174.4 12.0 % 151.9 152.0 151.9 152.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 186.3 186.4 186.3 186.4 10.0 % 157.9 157.9 157.9 157.9 12.0 % 138.6 138.7 138.6 138.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000003 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000003 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000003 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + THAKHO + HLAMPANAY DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000003 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000003 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 THAKHO1A 0.03 2010 01 ss000003 S.dem HLAMP00G 1.75 2012 01 ss000003 sexsi.fp0 ss000003 sexsi.exS ss000003 sexsi.therm ss000003 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 86.7 76.8 67.6 73.9 45.2 0.0 0.5 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 93.8 92.2 60.5 89.1 47.9 0.0 0.5 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 101.1 109.4 53.3 106.2 50.5 0.0 0.5 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 2010 54.5 105.2 160.6 286.1 286.0 0.1 270.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011 58.3 105.2 160.6 306.2 306.1 0.2 250.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2012 64.1 161.3 160.6 336.6 336.6 0.0 469.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2013 68.0 161.3 160.6 357.2 357.2 0.0 448.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2014 72.1 161.3 160.4 378.9 378.8 0.1 427.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2015 76.8 161.3 160.0 403.2 402.9 0.4 402.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2016 81.4 161.3 160.0 427.6 426.7 0.9 379.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 2017 89.7 161.3 160.0 471.0 468.9 2.1 336.9 2.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2018 94.9 161.3 160.0 498.1 495.2 2.9 310.6 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 2019 100.6 161.3 160.0 528.3 521.1 7.2 284.7 7.2 1.4 0.0 0.1 2020 106.5 161.3 160.0 559.4 544.6 14.8 261.2 14.8 2.6 0.0 0.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.9 2007 20.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 27.0 27.1 2008 52.6 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 60.2 60.2 2009 43.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 52.1 52.1 2010 22.5 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 270.5 18.9 289.4 2011 10.7 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.5 2012 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.0 16.0 -6.8 9.2 2013 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 -6.4 -6.4 2014 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 -6.0 -6.0 2015 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.0 0.0 -5.5 -5.5 2016 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.6 0.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 2017 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.7 0.0 0.0 -4.0 -4.0 2018 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.2 0.0 0.0 -3.5 -3.5 2019 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 -2.7 -2.7 2020 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.0 -1.8 -1.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 98.8 98.8 264.6 264.7 10.0 % 93.5 93.5 239.1 239.1 12.0 % 87.7 87.8 215.8 215.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 72.6 72.7 238.5 238.5 10.0 % 73.7 73.7 219.2 219.3 12.0 % 72.2 72.3 200.4 200.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000004 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000004 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000004 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + THAKHO + XEKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000004 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000004 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2008 01 THAKHO1A 0.03 2010 01 ss000004 S.dem XKATAM1C 1.00 2015 01 ss000004 sexsi.fp0 ss000004 sexsi.exS ss000004 sexsi.therm ss000004 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 2010 54.5 105.2 160.6 286.1 286.0 0.1 270.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011 58.3 105.2 160.6 306.2 306.1 0.2 250.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 2012 64.1 105.2 160.6 336.6 336.2 0.4 220.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2013 68.0 105.2 160.6 357.2 354.4 2.8 202.2 2.2 0.6 0.0 0.1 2014 72.1 105.2 160.4 378.9 370.8 8.0 185.7 7.4 2.0 0.0 0.2 2015 76.8 118.0 160.0 403.2 392.3 10.9 225.6 10.9 2.7 0.0 0.2 2016 81.4 118.0 160.0 427.6 408.5 19.1 209.4 19.1 4.5 0.0 0.2 2017 89.7 118.0 160.0 471.0 436.4 34.6 181.6 34.6 7.3 0.0 0.2 2018 94.9 118.0 160.0 498.1 453.5 44.6 164.4 44.6 9.0 0.0 0.2 2019 100.6 118.0 160.0 528.3 471.3 57.0 146.6 57.0 10.8 0.0 0.3 2020 106.5 118.0 160.0 559.4 487.4 72.0 130.5 72.0 12.9 0.0 0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.6 2007 20.9 0.6 2.5 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 29.7 29.7 2008 41.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 49.4 49.4 2009 20.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 29.6 29.6 2010 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.0 270.5 -3.6 266.9 2011 3.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 2012 6.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 2013 6.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.4 2014 3.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.6 2015 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.0 4.5 0.0 6.4 -1.8 4.6 2016 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 2017 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2018 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 2019 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.6 2020 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 99.4 99.5 259.8 259.9 10.0 % 86.9 87.0 227.8 227.8 12.0 % 77.3 77.3 201.3 201.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 83.9 84.0 244.3 244.4 10.0 % 74.8 74.9 215.7 215.7 12.0 % 67.6 67.6 191.6 191.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000005 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000005 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000005 EDL DEMAND S XESET + THAKHO + XEKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000005 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000005 sexsi.fix NONE THAKHO1A 0.03 2010 01 ss000005 S.dem XKATAM1C 1.00 2012 01 ss000005 sexsi.fp0 XESET01S 2.25 2008 01 ss000005 sexsi.exS XESET02B 2.61 2008 01 ss000005 sexsi.therm XESET03A 1.62 2008 01 ss000005 DUMMY TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 129.8 80.7 239.4 164.0 74.7 284.1 72.2 30.2 0.7 41.5 2009 51.9 129.8 80.7 262.1 173.2 88.0 274.9 85.4 32.6 0.9 43.0 2010 54.5 189.9 80.7 286.1 286.1 0.0 564.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2011 58.3 189.9 80.7 306.2 306.2 0.0 544.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2012 64.1 202.7 80.7 336.6 336.6 0.0 575.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2013 68.0 202.7 80.7 357.2 357.2 0.0 554.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2014 72.1 202.7 80.4 378.9 378.9 0.0 532.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2015 76.8 202.7 80.0 403.2 403.0 0.2 508.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 2016 81.4 202.7 80.0 427.6 424.3 3.3 487.4 3.3 0.8 0.0 11.3 2017 89.7 202.7 80.0 471.0 456.5 14.3 455.2 14.3 3.0 0.1 19.1 2018 94.9 202.7 80.0 498.1 474.5 23.4 437.2 23.4 4.7 0.2 21.0 2019 100.6 202.7 80.0 528.3 494.0 33.9 417.6 33.9 6.4 0.3 21.4 2020 106.5 202.7 80.0 559.4 514.1 44.9 397.6 44.9 8.0 0.5 21.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 18.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.8 18.8 2005 41.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 45.1 45.1 2006 43.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 48.0 48.0 2007 41.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 47.8 47.8 2008 45.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 4.4 0.1 5.7 0.0 0.0 46.0 46.0 2009 27.5 2.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.2 5.5 0.0 0.0 29.5 29.5 2010 6.6 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 270.5 -1.5 269.0 2011 3.1 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 0.0 0.0 -4.5 -4.5 2012 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.5 0.0 6.4 -8.0 -1.6 2013 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 0.0 0.0 -7.6 -7.6 2014 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 -7.2 -7.2 2015 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 -6.7 -6.7 2016 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 9.7 0.0 0.0 -6.1 -6.1 2017 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 9.1 0.0 0.0 -4.8 -4.8 2018 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 8.7 0.0 0.0 -3.8 -3.8 2019 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.1 8.4 0.0 0.0 -2.8 -2.8 2020 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.1 8.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 -1.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 150.8 150.9 311.9 311.9 10.0 % 146.3 146.4 287.8 287.9 12.0 % 140.9 141.0 265.6 265.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 110.1 110.2 271.2 271.2 10.0 % 115.1 115.2 256.7 256.7 12.0 % 116.3 116.4 241.0 241.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000006 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000006 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000006 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + THAKHO + XEKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000006 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + XESET01X --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000006 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ss000006 S.dem THAKHO1A 0.03 2010 01 ss000006 sexsi.fp0 XKATAM1C 1.00 2015 01 ss000006 sexsi.exS ss000006 sexsi.therm ss000006 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 122.9 40.7 0.6 36.5 22.3 0.0 0.6 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 123.4 62.6 0.0 57.9 31.1 0.0 0.9 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 123.4 87.1 0.0 82.4 39.1 0.0 0.9 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 123.4 115.9 0.0 111.2 46.5 0.0 0.9 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 123.4 138.6 0.0 133.9 51.1 0.0 0.9 2010 54.5 105.2 160.6 286.1 281.0 5.1 244.6 4.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 2011 58.3 105.2 160.6 306.2 300.3 5.9 225.3 5.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 2012 64.1 105.2 160.6 336.6 329.5 7.1 196.1 6.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 2013 68.0 105.2 160.6 357.2 349.2 8.0 176.4 7.7 2.2 0.0 0.0 2014 72.1 105.2 160.4 378.9 370.0 8.8 155.6 8.7 2.3 0.0 0.0 2015 76.8 118.0 160.0 403.2 399.2 4.1 187.8 4.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 2016 81.4 118.0 160.0 427.6 420.6 7.0 166.4 7.0 1.6 0.0 0.1 2017 89.7 118.0 160.0 471.0 451.6 19.4 135.4 19.4 4.1 0.0 0.2 2018 94.9 118.0 160.0 498.1 468.7 29.4 118.3 29.4 5.9 0.0 0.3 2019 100.6 118.0 160.0 528.3 487.0 41.3 100.0 41.3 7.8 0.0 0.3 2020 106.5 118.0 160.0 559.4 505.6 53.8 81.4 53.8 9.6 0.0 0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.9 2.9 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.3 2007 20.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 26.7 26.7 2008 41.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.4 49.4 2009 20.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 29.8 2010 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 270.5 -2.8 267.7 2011 3.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 2012 6.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.8 2013 6.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 5.3 2014 3.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 2015 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.0 6.4 -1.5 4.9 2016 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 2017 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2018 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 2019 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2020 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 100.6 100.6 260.9 261.0 10.0 % 88.1 88.2 228.9 229.0 12.0 % 78.5 78.6 202.5 202.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 90.2 90.2 250.5 250.6 10.0 % 80.1 80.1 220.9 221.0 12.0 % 72.2 72.2 196.2 196.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000007 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000007 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000007 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss000007 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000007 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2010 01 ss000007 S.dem ss000007 sexsi.fp0 ss000007 sexsi.exS ss000007 sexsi.therm ss000007 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 86.7 76.8 67.6 73.9 45.2 0.0 0.5 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 93.8 92.2 60.5 89.1 47.9 0.0 0.5 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 101.1 109.4 53.3 106.2 50.5 0.0 0.5 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 2010 54.5 95.1 160.6 286.1 193.5 92.7 173.8 90.1 31.5 0.0 0.4 2011 58.3 95.1 160.6 306.2 201.4 104.9 165.9 102.3 33.4 0.0 0.4 2012 64.1 95.1 160.6 336.6 212.7 123.9 154.5 121.1 36.0 0.0 0.5 2013 68.0 95.1 160.6 357.2 219.8 137.4 147.5 134.5 37.7 0.0 0.5 2014 72.1 95.1 160.4 378.9 226.9 152.0 140.4 150.1 39.6 0.0 0.5 2015 76.8 95.1 160.0 403.2 234.6 168.6 132.6 168.6 41.8 0.0 0.5 2016 81.4 95.1 160.0 427.6 242.3 185.3 125.0 185.3 43.3 0.0 0.5 2017 89.7 95.1 160.0 471.0 255.3 215.7 112.0 215.7 45.8 0.0 0.6 2018 94.9 95.1 160.0 498.1 262.8 235.3 104.4 235.3 47.2 0.0 0.6 2019 100.6 95.1 160.0 528.3 271.0 257.3 96.3 257.3 48.7 0.0 0.9 2020 106.5 95.1 160.0 559.4 279.3 280.0 87.9 280.0 50.1 0.1 19.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 4.9 4.9 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.1 6.1 2008 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.5 9.6 2009 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 10.7 10.7 2010 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 11.4 11.5 2011 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 12.3 12.3 2012 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 13.7 13.7 2013 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 14.7 14.7 2014 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 9.2 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 15.8 15.8 2015 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 17.0 17.0 2016 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 18.2 18.2 2017 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 13.2 0.0 2.2 0.0 0.0 20.3 20.3 2018 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 14.4 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 21.6 21.6 2019 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 15.7 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 23.1 23.1 2020 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 17.1 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 24.7 24.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 182.3 182.4 182.3 182.4 10.0 % 134.9 135.0 134.9 135.0 12.0 % 103.9 104.0 103.9 104.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 171.3 171.4 171.3 171.4 10.0 % 126.2 126.3 126.2 126.3 12.0 % 96.9 97.0 96.9 97.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000008 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + HOUAYLAMPANOY DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss000008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000008 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 ss000008 S.dem ss000008 sexsi.fp0 ss000008 sexsi.exS ss000008 sexsi.therm ss000008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 86.7 76.8 67.6 73.9 45.2 0.0 0.5 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 93.8 92.2 60.5 89.1 47.9 0.0 0.5 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 101.1 109.4 53.3 106.2 50.5 0.0 0.5 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 2010 54.5 101.2 160.6 286.1 247.5 38.7 156.2 37.2 13.0 0.0 0.2 2011 58.3 101.2 160.6 306.2 258.7 47.5 144.9 45.6 14.9 0.0 0.3 2012 64.1 101.2 160.6 336.6 273.1 63.4 130.5 61.2 18.2 0.0 0.4 2013 68.0 101.2 160.6 357.2 281.9 75.2 121.7 72.8 20.4 0.0 0.4 2014 72.1 101.2 160.4 378.9 290.7 88.1 112.9 86.6 22.9 0.0 0.4 2015 76.8 101.2 160.0 403.2 300.0 103.2 103.6 103.2 25.6 0.0 0.5 2016 81.4 101.2 160.0 427.6 309.2 118.4 94.5 118.4 27.7 0.0 0.5 2017 89.7 101.2 160.0 471.0 324.2 146.8 79.5 146.8 31.2 0.0 0.5 2018 94.9 101.2 160.0 498.1 332.8 165.4 70.9 165.4 33.2 0.0 0.5 2019 100.6 101.2 160.0 528.3 341.5 186.8 62.1 186.8 35.4 0.0 2.1 2020 106.5 101.2 160.0 559.4 349.8 209.6 53.9 209.6 37.5 0.0 3.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2006 10.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 15.7 15.7 2007 22.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 28.6 28.6 2008 22.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 30.0 30.1 2009 10.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 19.4 19.5 2010 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 3.1 0.0 16.0 0.6 16.6 2011 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 2012 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.6 2013 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 2014 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 2015 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 2.1 0.0 0.0 5.7 5.7 2016 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 6.8 6.8 2017 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 9.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 8.8 2018 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 10.1 10.1 2019 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 11.6 11.6 2020 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 13.2 13.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 140.0 140.0 149.3 149.4 10.0 % 112.9 113.0 121.1 121.2 12.0 % 94.5 94.6 101.7 101.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 131.3 131.3 140.6 140.7 10.0 % 105.8 105.9 114.1 114.1 12.0 % 88.7 88.7 95.9 96.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss000009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss000009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss000009 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss000009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + HLAMP00 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss000009 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 ss000009 S.dem HLAMP00G 1.75 2012 01 ss000009 sexsi.fp0 ss000009 sexsi.exS ss000009 sexsi.therm ss000009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 86.7 76.8 67.6 73.9 45.2 0.0 0.5 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 93.8 92.2 60.5 89.1 47.9 0.0 0.5 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 101.1 109.4 53.3 106.2 50.5 0.0 0.5 2008 49.4 95.1 160.6 239.4 174.4 65.0 192.8 62.6 26.1 0.0 0.4 2009 51.9 95.1 160.6 262.1 183.8 78.2 183.4 75.8 28.9 0.0 0.4 2010 54.5 95.1 160.6 286.1 193.5 92.7 173.8 90.1 31.5 0.0 0.4 2011 58.3 95.1 160.6 306.2 201.4 104.9 165.9 102.3 33.4 0.0 0.4 2012 64.1 151.1 160.6 336.6 308.0 28.6 308.5 27.2 8.1 0.0 0.2 2013 68.0 151.1 160.6 357.2 320.8 36.4 295.7 35.0 9.8 0.0 0.2 2014 72.1 151.1 160.4 378.9 334.0 44.9 282.5 44.0 11.6 0.0 0.2 2015 76.8 151.1 160.0 403.2 348.3 54.9 268.2 54.9 13.6 0.0 0.3 2016 81.4 151.1 160.0 427.6 360.9 66.7 255.6 66.7 15.6 0.0 0.4 2017 89.7 151.1 160.0 471.0 381.3 89.7 235.2 89.7 19.0 0.0 0.4 2018 94.9 151.1 160.0 498.1 393.2 104.9 223.3 104.9 21.1 0.0 0.4 2019 100.6 151.1 160.0 528.3 406.0 122.3 210.5 122.3 23.2 0.0 0.4 2020 106.5 151.1 160.0 559.4 418.7 140.7 197.8 140.7 25.1 0.0 0.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2006 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.9 2007 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 8.1 8.1 2008 10.7 9.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 20.1 20.1 2009 22.5 9.4 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 3.7 0.0 0.0 32.9 32.9 2010 22.5 9.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 33.9 34.0 2011 10.7 9.4 0.0 0.0 6.3 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 23.1 23.1 2012 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.0 6.2 0.0 16.0 5.7 21.7 2013 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 2.2 0.0 5.9 0.0 0.0 6.4 6.4 2014 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 7.2 7.2 2015 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 5.4 0.0 0.0 8.2 8.2 2016 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 9.1 9.1 2017 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 10.9 10.9 2018 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 6.4 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 12.1 12.1 2019 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 13.4 13.4 2020 0.0 10.2 0.0 0.0 8.6 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 14.8 14.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 164.2 164.2 172.2 172.2 10.0 % 130.7 130.8 137.5 137.5 12.0 % 107.6 107.6 113.3 113.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 143.3 143.4 151.3 151.4 10.0 % 114.6 114.7 121.4 121.4 12.0 % 94.8 94.8 100.5 100.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss080007 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss080007 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss080007 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss080007 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss080007 sexsi.fiS08 NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2010 01 ss080007 S.dem XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ss080007 sexsi.fp0 ss080007 sexsi.exS ss080007 sexsi.therm ss080007 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 122.9 40.3 0.6 36.1 22.1 0.4 58.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 123.4 62.0 0.0 57.3 30.8 0.6 87.6 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 123.4 86.3 0.0 81.5 38.7 0.8 87.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.4 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 % 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.9 12.0 % 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 10.4 10.5 10.4 10.5 10.0 % 9.8 9.9 9.8 9.9 12.0 % 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss080008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss080008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss080008 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + HOUAYLAMPANOY + DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss080008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE XEKATAM 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss080008 sexsi.fis08 NONE HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 ss080008 S.dem XKATAM1C 1.00 2015 01 ss080008 sexsi.fp0 ss080008 sexsi.exS ss080008 sexsi.therm ss080008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.5 10.0 % 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 12.0 % 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.0 % 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 12.0 % 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss080009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss080009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss080009 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss080009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + HLAMP00 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss080009 sexsi.fis08 NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 ss080009 S.dem HLAMP00G 1.00 2012 01 ss080009 sexsi.fp0 ss080009 sexsi.exS ss080009 sexsi.therm ss080009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 11.4 11.5 11.4 11.5 10.0 % 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 12.0 % 10.2 10.3 10.2 10.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 10.0 % 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 12.0 % 8.6 8.7 8.6 8.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss100007 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss100007 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss100007 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss100007 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss100007 sexsi.fiS10 NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2010 01 ss100007 S.dem ss100007 sexsi.fp0 ss100007 sexsi.exS ss100007 sexsi.therm ss100007 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 45.1 80.7 239.4 108.9 129.2 45.5 125.8 52.6 1.3 57.8 2009 51.9 45.1 80.7 262.1 114.6 146.0 39.8 142.6 54.4 1.4 59.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 2008 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 7.7 7.7 2009 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.9 8.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 22.5 22.6 22.5 22.6 10.0 % 20.9 20.9 20.9 20.9 12.0 % 19.4 19.4 19.4 19.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 20.3 20.4 20.3 20.4 10.0 % 18.8 18.8 18.8 18.8 12.0 % 17.4 17.5 17.4 17.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss100008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss100008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss100008 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + HOUAYLAMPANOY + DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss100008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE XEKATAM 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss100008 sexsi.fis10 IMPBANGY2 2008 01 HLAMP00G 1.75 2015 01 ss100008 S.dem XKATAM1C 1.00 2018 01 ss100008 sexsi.fp0 ss100008 sexsi.exS ss100008 sexsi.therm ss100008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.6 2007 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 8.8 8.8 2008 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 7.5 7.6 2009 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 8.7 8.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 23.3 23.3 23.3 23.3 10.0 % 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.8 12.0 % 20.3 20.4 20.3 20.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 21.0 21.1 21.0 21.1 10.0 % 19.6 19.7 19.6 19.7 12.0 % 18.4 18.4 18.4 18.4 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss100009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss100009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss100009 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss100009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + HLAMP00 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss100009 sexsi.fis10 NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 ss100009 S.dem HLAMP00G 1.00 2012 01 ss100009 sexsi.fp0 ss100009 sexsi.exS ss100009 sexsi.therm ss100009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 105.1 80.7 239.4 174.4 64.4 192.8 62.0 25.9 0.6 40.6 2009 51.9 105.1 80.7 262.1 183.8 77.5 183.4 75.0 28.6 0.8 42.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.1 2007 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.3 2008 0.0 11.6 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.1 3.9 0.0 0.0 11.7 11.7 2009 0.0 11.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2 3.7 0.0 0.0 12.7 12.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.8 10.0 % 24.8 24.9 24.8 24.9 12.0 % 23.1 23.2 23.1 23.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 21.7 21.8 21.7 21.8 10.0 % 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.3 12.0 % 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss150007 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss150007 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss150007 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss150007 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss150007 sexsi.fiS15 NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2010 01 ss150007 S.dem ss150007 sexsi.fp0 ss150007 sexsi.exS ss150007 sexsi.therm ss150007 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 45.1 80.7 239.4 108.9 129.2 45.5 125.8 52.6 1.3 57.8 2009 51.9 45.1 80.7 262.1 114.6 146.0 39.8 142.6 54.4 1.4 59.2 2010 54.5 95.1 80.7 286.1 193.5 91.8 173.8 89.2 31.2 0.9 43.2 2011 58.3 95.1 80.7 306.2 201.4 103.8 165.9 101.2 33.1 1.0 44.1 2012 64.1 95.1 80.7 336.6 212.7 122.7 154.5 119.9 35.6 1.2 47.2 2013 68.0 95.1 80.7 357.2 219.8 136.1 147.5 133.2 37.3 1.3 49.3 2014 72.1 95.1 80.4 378.9 226.9 150.5 140.4 148.6 39.2 1.5 50.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 6.3 6.3 2008 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.7 0.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 9.7 9.7 2009 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.7 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 10.9 10.9 2010 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.2 3.5 0.0 0.0 11.6 11.6 2011 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.2 3.3 0.0 0.0 12.5 12.5 2012 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 7.4 0.2 3.1 0.0 0.0 13.9 13.9 2013 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.3 2.9 0.0 0.0 14.9 14.9 2014 0.0 9.4 0.0 0.0 9.1 0.3 2.8 0.0 0.0 16.0 16.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 57.2 57.3 57.2 57.3 10.0 % 50.5 50.6 50.5 50.6 12.0 % 44.8 44.9 44.8 44.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 50.7 50.8 50.7 50.8 10.0 % 44.8 44.9 44.8 44.9 12.0 % 39.8 39.9 39.8 39.9 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss150008 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss150008 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss150008 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + HOUAYLAMPANOY + DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ss150008 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE XEKATAM 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss150008 sexsi.fis15 IMPBANGY2 2008 01 HLAMP00G 1.75 2010 01 ss150008 S.dem ss150008 sexsi.fp0 ss150008 sexsi.exS ss150008 sexsi.therm ss150008 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 108.9 130.5 45.5 127.1 53.1 0.0 0.6 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 114.6 147.5 39.8 144.0 55.0 0.0 0.6 2010 54.5 101.2 160.6 286.1 247.5 38.7 156.2 37.2 13.0 0.0 0.2 2011 58.3 101.2 160.6 306.2 258.7 47.5 144.9 45.6 14.9 0.0 0.3 2012 64.1 101.2 160.6 336.6 273.1 63.4 130.5 61.2 18.2 0.0 0.4 2013 68.0 101.2 160.6 357.2 281.9 75.2 121.7 72.8 20.4 0.0 0.4 2014 72.1 101.2 160.4 378.9 290.7 88.1 112.9 86.6 22.9 0.0 0.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 10.7 0.6 2.5 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 18.3 18.3 2007 22.5 0.6 2.5 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 31.3 31.3 2008 22.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 7.8 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 30.0 30.1 2009 10.7 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 19.4 19.5 2010 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 3.1 0.0 16.0 0.6 16.6 2011 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 2.9 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 2012 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 2.6 2.6 2013 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 2014 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 4.5 4.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 54.2 54.3 63.5 63.6 10.0 % 52.6 52.7 60.8 60.9 12.0 % 50.7 50.8 58.0 58.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 48.3 48.4 57.7 57.7 10.0 % 47.5 47.6 55.7 55.8 12.0 % 46.2 46.3 53.4 53.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ss150009 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ss150009 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ss150009 EDL DEMAND S PURCHASE FROM XKAMAN3 ELECTRICITY DEPARTMENT ss150009 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + HLAMP00 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ss150009 sexsi.fis15 NONE XKAMAN3L 0.20 2008 01 ss150009 S.dem HLAMP00G 1.00 2012 01 ss150009 sexsi.fp0 ss150009 sexsi.exS ss150009 sexsi.therm ss150009 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 86.7 76.1 67.6 73.2 44.7 0.7 49.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 93.8 91.3 60.5 88.2 47.4 0.9 52.2 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 101.1 108.4 53.3 105.2 50.0 1.1 54.6 2008 49.4 105.1 80.7 239.4 174.4 64.4 192.8 62.0 25.9 0.6 40.6 2009 51.9 105.1 80.7 262.1 183.8 77.5 183.4 75.0 28.6 0.8 42.0 2010 54.5 105.1 80.7 286.1 193.5 91.8 173.8 89.2 31.2 0.9 43.2 2011 58.3 105.1 80.7 306.2 201.4 103.8 165.9 101.2 33.1 1.0 44.1 2012 64.1 137.6 80.7 336.6 308.7 27.6 304.2 26.3 7.8 0.3 22.6 2013 68.0 137.6 80.7 357.2 321.5 35.3 291.4 33.9 9.5 0.3 23.4 2014 72.1 137.6 80.4 378.9 334.7 43.7 278.2 42.8 11.3 0.4 24.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 3.9 4.0 2006 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.4 0.2 1.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.1 2007 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.2 1.1 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.3 2008 9.5 11.6 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.1 3.9 0.0 0.0 21.2 21.2 2009 20.0 11.6 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.2 3.7 0.0 0.0 32.7 32.7 2010 20.0 11.6 0.0 0.0 5.5 0.2 3.5 0.0 0.0 33.8 33.8 2011 9.5 11.6 0.0 0.0 6.2 0.2 3.3 0.0 0.0 24.2 24.2 2012 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.1 6.1 0.0 16.0 7.9 23.9 2013 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.1 5.8 0.0 0.0 8.6 8.6 2014 0.0 12.3 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.1 5.6 0.0 0.0 9.4 9.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 69.9 70.0 77.9 78.0 10.0 % 64.4 64.5 71.2 71.3 12.0 % 59.3 59.3 65.1 65.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 58.9 59.0 66.9 67.0 10.0 % 54.9 54.9 61.7 61.7 12.0 % 50.9 51.0 56.7 56.8 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0000 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0000 EDL DEMAND S EXISTING PLANT, REG BY HH DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0000 sexsi.fix NONE XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0000 S.dem ssHH0000 sexsi.fp0 ssHH0000 sexsi.exS ssHH0000 sexsi.therm ssHH0000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 122.9 40.3 0.6 36.1 22.1 0.4 58.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 123.4 62.0 0.0 57.3 30.8 0.6 87.6 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 123.4 86.3 0.0 81.5 38.7 0.8 87.6 2008 49.4 45.1 80.7 239.4 123.4 114.8 0.0 110.1 46.0 1.1 87.6 2009 51.9 45.1 80.7 262.1 123.4 137.3 0.0 132.6 50.6 1.3 87.6 2010 54.5 45.1 80.7 286.1 123.4 161.1 0.0 156.4 54.7 1.6 87.6 2011 58.3 45.1 80.7 306.2 123.4 181.0 0.0 176.3 57.6 1.8 87.6 2012 64.1 45.1 80.7 336.6 123.4 211.1 0.0 206.4 61.3 2.1 87.6 2013 68.0 45.1 80.7 357.2 123.4 231.5 0.0 226.7 63.5 2.3 87.6 2014 72.1 45.1 80.4 378.9 123.4 252.9 0.0 250.0 66.0 2.5 87.6 2015 76.8 45.1 80.0 403.2 123.4 277.0 0.0 277.0 68.7 2.8 87.6 2016 81.4 45.1 80.0 427.6 123.4 301.1 0.0 301.1 70.4 3.0 87.6 2017 89.7 45.1 80.0 471.0 123.4 344.1 0.0 344.1 73.1 3.5 87.6 2018 94.9 45.1 80.0 498.1 123.4 371.0 0.0 371.0 74.5 3.7 87.6 2019 100.6 45.1 80.0 528.3 123.4 400.8 0.0 400.8 75.9 4.0 87.6 2020 106.5 45.1 80.0 559.4 123.4 428.1 0.0 428.1 76.5 7.8 1049.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 2006 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.4 2007 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.9 2008 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.7 7.7 2009 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.1 9.1 2010 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 10.6 2011 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 10.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.8 11.9 2012 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 12.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7 13.7 2013 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 13.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 15.0 2014 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.4 16.5 2015 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 16.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 18.1 18.1 2016 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 18.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.6 19.6 2017 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 21.0 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 22.3 22.3 2018 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 22.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 24.0 2019 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 24.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.9 25.9 2020 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 26.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 28.3 28.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 188.7 188.8 188.7 188.8 10.0 % 136.3 136.4 136.3 136.4 12.0 % 102.3 102.5 102.3 102.5 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 188.6 188.8 188.6 188.8 10.0 % 136.2 136.4 136.2 136.4 12.0 % 102.3 102.5 102.3 102.5 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0001 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0001 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0001 EDL DEMAND S XESET 1+2+3, REG BY HH DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0001 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0001 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0001 S.dem XESET01Z 2.25 2008 01 ssHH0001 sexsi.fp0 XESET02Z 2.61 2008 01 ssHH0001 sexsi.exS XESET03Z 1.62 2008 01 ssHH0001 sexsi.therm TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 ssHH0001 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 122.9 40.7 0.6 36.5 22.3 0.0 0.6 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 123.4 62.6 0.0 57.9 31.1 0.0 0.9 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 123.4 87.1 0.0 82.4 39.1 0.0 0.9 2008 49.4 128.9 160.6 239.4 237.8 1.6 114.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 2009 51.9 128.9 160.6 262.1 254.8 7.3 97.5 6.4 2.5 0.0 0.1 2010 54.5 128.9 160.6 286.1 270.8 15.3 81.4 14.1 4.9 0.0 0.2 2011 58.3 128.9 160.6 306.2 283.8 22.4 68.5 21.2 6.9 0.0 0.2 2012 64.1 128.9 160.6 336.6 302.1 34.5 50.1 32.8 9.7 0.0 0.3 2013 68.0 128.9 160.6 357.2 313.5 43.6 38.7 42.0 11.7 0.0 0.3 2014 72.1 128.9 160.4 378.9 323.6 55.2 28.6 53.7 14.2 0.0 0.4 2015 76.8 128.9 160.0 403.2 333.2 70.1 19.1 70.1 17.4 0.0 0.4 2016 81.4 128.9 160.0 427.6 342.5 85.1 9.8 85.1 19.9 0.0 0.5 2017 89.7 128.9 160.0 471.0 351.2 119.8 1.1 119.8 25.4 0.0 0.7 2018 94.9 128.9 160.0 498.1 352.3 145.9 0.0 145.9 29.3 0.0 0.9 2019 100.6 128.9 160.0 528.3 352.3 176.0 0.0 176.0 33.3 0.0 0.9 2020 106.5 128.9 160.0 559.4 352.3 207.1 0.0 207.1 37.0 0.0 0.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 17.5 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 2005 38.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 41.3 2006 40.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 44.5 2007 19.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 2008 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 2009 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2010 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 2011 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2012 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 2013 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2014 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.8 2015 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 5.9 5.9 2016 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.0 7.0 2017 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.3 9.3 2018 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.9 10.9 2019 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8 12.8 2020 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.7 14.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 183.4 183.5 183.4 183.5 10.0 % 154.4 154.5 154.4 154.5 12.0 % 134.9 135.0 134.9 135.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 180.5 180.5 180.5 180.5 10.0 % 151.8 151.9 151.8 151.9 12.0 % 132.6 132.7 132.6 132.7 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0002 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0002 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0002 EDL DEMAND S XESET 1+2+3, REG BY HH DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0002 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + THAKHO 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0002 sexsi.fix NONE XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0002 S.dem XESET01Z 2.25 2008 01 ssHH0002 sexsi.fp0 XESET02Z 2.61 2008 01 ssHH0002 sexsi.exS XESET03Z 1.62 2008 01 ssHH0002 sexsi.therm TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 ssHH0002 DUMMY THAKHO1A 0.03 2013 01 ssHH0002 HLAMP00G 1.75 2017 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 122.9 40.3 0.6 36.1 22.1 0.4 58.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 123.4 62.0 0.0 57.3 30.8 0.6 87.6 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 123.4 86.3 0.0 81.5 38.7 0.8 87.6 2008 49.4 128.9 80.7 239.4 237.8 1.6 114.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 2009 51.9 128.9 80.7 262.1 254.8 7.2 97.5 6.4 2.4 0.1 14.6 2010 54.5 128.9 80.7 286.1 270.8 15.2 81.4 13.9 4.9 0.1 21.4 2011 58.3 128.9 80.7 306.2 283.8 22.2 68.5 21.0 6.8 0.2 21.4 2012 64.1 128.9 80.7 336.6 302.1 34.1 50.1 32.4 9.6 0.3 28.8 2013 68.0 189.1 80.7 357.2 357.2 0.0 397.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2014 72.1 189.1 80.4 378.9 378.9 0.0 375.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2015 76.8 189.1 80.0 403.2 403.2 0.0 351.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2016 81.4 189.1 80.0 427.6 427.6 0.1 326.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2017 89.7 245.2 80.0 471.0 471.0 0.0 532.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2018 94.9 245.2 80.0 498.1 498.1 0.0 505.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2019 100.6 245.2 80.0 528.3 528.3 0.0 475.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2020 106.5 245.2 80.0 559.4 559.4 0.0 444.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 17.5 2005 38.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 41.4 2006 40.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.5 44.6 2007 19.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1 25.2 2008 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 2009 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2010 20.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 22.2 22.2 2011 41.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 43.9 43.9 2012 20.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 24.0 24.0 2013 10.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.9 0.0 270.5 6.0 276.5 2014 22.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.5 0.0 0.0 18.1 18.1 2015 22.5 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.0 0.0 0.0 18.6 18.6 2016 10.7 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 0.0 0.0 7.4 7.4 2017 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.7 0.0 16.0 -6.7 9.3 2018 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 -6.2 -6.2 2019 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 0.0 0.0 -5.5 -5.5 2020 0.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 -4.9 -4.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 151.8 151.9 282.6 282.7 10.0 % 144.7 144.7 253.2 253.2 12.0 % 136.4 136.4 226.8 226.8 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 123.2 123.3 254.0 254.1 10.0 % 124.5 124.6 233.0 233.1 12.0 % 121.7 121.7 212.0 212.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0003 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0003 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0003 EDL DEMAND S XESET 1+2+3, REG BY HH DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0003 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + HLAMP00 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0003 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2005 01 XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0003 S.dem XESET01Z 2.25 2008 01 ssHH0003 sexsi.fp0 XESET02Z 2.61 2008 01 ssHH0003 sexsi.exS XESET03Z 1.62 2008 01 ssHH0003 sexsi.therm TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 ssHH0003 DUMMY HLAMP00G 1.75 2018 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 160.6 163.6 122.9 40.7 0.6 36.5 22.3 0.0 0.6 2006 41.9 45.1 160.6 186.0 123.4 62.6 0.0 57.9 31.1 0.0 0.9 2007 45.4 45.1 160.6 210.5 123.4 87.1 0.0 82.4 39.1 0.0 0.9 2008 49.4 128.9 160.6 239.4 237.8 1.6 114.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.1 2009 51.9 128.9 160.6 262.1 254.8 7.3 97.5 6.4 2.5 0.0 0.1 2010 54.5 128.9 160.6 286.1 270.8 15.3 81.4 14.1 4.9 0.0 0.2 2011 58.3 128.9 160.6 306.2 283.8 22.4 68.5 21.2 6.9 0.0 0.2 2012 64.1 128.9 160.6 336.6 302.1 34.5 50.1 32.8 9.7 0.0 0.3 2013 68.0 128.9 160.6 357.2 313.5 43.6 38.7 42.0 11.7 0.0 0.3 2014 72.1 128.9 160.4 378.9 323.6 55.2 28.6 53.7 14.2 0.0 0.4 2015 76.8 128.9 160.0 403.2 333.2 70.1 19.1 70.1 17.4 0.0 0.4 2016 81.4 128.9 160.0 427.6 342.5 85.1 9.8 85.1 19.9 0.0 0.5 2017 89.7 128.9 160.0 471.0 351.2 119.8 1.1 119.8 25.4 0.0 0.7 2018 94.9 185.0 160.0 498.1 463.9 34.2 137.6 34.2 6.9 0.0 0.2 2019 100.6 185.0 160.0 528.3 482.9 45.5 118.6 45.5 8.6 0.0 0.2 2020 106.5 185.0 160.0 559.4 501.6 57.8 99.9 57.8 10.3 0.0 0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2004 17.5 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 20.0 2005 38.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 41.3 2006 40.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.4 44.5 2007 19.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 25.0 2008 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 2009 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2010 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 2011 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2012 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 2013 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 3.8 3.9 2014 10.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 15.5 15.5 2015 22.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 28.4 28.4 2016 22.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 29.5 29.5 2017 10.7 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.1 20.1 2018 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.0 2.8 0.0 16.0 2.2 18.2 2019 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 3.2 3.2 2020 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.4 4.4 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 167.8 167.9 172.9 173.0 10.0 % 148.7 148.8 152.6 152.6 12.0 % 134.2 134.2 137.1 137.2 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 160.7 160.8 165.8 165.8 10.0 % 143.5 143.6 147.3 147.4 12.0 % 130.1 130.2 133.1 133.1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0004 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0004 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0004 EDL DEMAND S XESET 1+2+3, REG BY HH DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0004 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE + XEKATAM 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0004 sexsi.fix NONE XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0004 S.dem XESET01Z 2.25 2008 01 ssHH0004 sexsi.fp0 XESET02Z 2.61 2008 01 ssHH0004 sexsi.exS XESET03Z 1.62 2008 01 ssHH0004 sexsi.therm TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 ssHH0004 DUMMY XKATAM1C 1.30 2013 01 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 122.9 40.3 0.6 36.1 22.1 0.4 58.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 123.4 62.0 0.0 57.3 30.8 0.6 87.6 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 123.4 86.3 0.0 81.5 38.7 0.8 87.6 2008 49.4 128.9 80.7 239.4 237.8 1.6 114.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 2009 51.9 128.9 80.7 262.1 254.8 7.2 97.5 6.4 2.4 0.1 14.6 2010 54.5 128.9 80.7 286.1 270.8 15.2 81.4 13.9 4.9 0.1 21.4 2011 58.3 128.9 80.7 306.2 283.8 22.2 68.5 21.0 6.8 0.2 21.4 2012 64.1 128.9 80.7 336.6 302.1 34.1 50.1 32.4 9.6 0.3 28.8 2013 68.0 145.5 80.7 357.2 320.8 36.0 92.8 34.5 9.6 0.3 25.7 2014 72.1 145.5 80.4 378.9 333.0 45.4 80.7 44.4 11.7 0.4 28.6 2015 76.8 145.5 80.0 403.2 345.3 57.4 68.3 57.4 14.2 0.6 34.9 2016 81.4 145.5 80.0 427.6 356.4 70.5 57.3 70.5 16.5 0.7 39.2 2017 89.7 145.5 80.0 471.0 374.2 95.8 39.5 95.8 20.3 1.0 44.3 2018 94.9 145.5 80.0 498.1 384.1 112.9 29.6 112.9 22.7 1.1 48.4 2019 100.6 145.5 80.0 528.3 394.0 132.9 19.6 132.9 25.2 1.3 51.5 2020 106.5 145.5 80.0 559.4 403.1 154.8 10.6 154.8 27.7 1.6 56.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 17.5 2005 38.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 41.4 2006 40.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.5 44.6 2007 19.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1 25.2 2008 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 2009 3.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 4.3 2010 7.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 9.2 9.2 2011 7.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 9.9 9.9 2012 3.8 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 6.9 6.9 2013 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.1 1.9 0.0 6.4 2.7 9.1 2014 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.5 3.5 2015 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.1 1.4 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.6 2016 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.1 1.1 0.0 0.0 5.6 5.6 2017 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 5.8 0.2 0.8 0.0 0.0 7.6 7.6 2018 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.9 8.9 2019 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 8.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 10.3 10.3 2020 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 9.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 11.9 11.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 177.8 177.9 180.8 180.9 10.0 % 152.0 152.0 154.4 154.5 12.0 % 134.0 134.0 136.0 136.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 173.4 173.5 176.4 176.5 10.0 % 148.3 148.4 150.7 150.8 12.0 % 130.9 130.9 132.9 133.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0005 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0005 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0005 EDL DEMAND S MORE IMPORT + THAKHO + XEKATAM DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0005 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2003 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0005 sexsi.fix IMPBANGY2 2008 01 XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0005 S.dem THAKHO1A 0.03 2010 01 ssHH0005 sexsi.fp0 XKATAM1C 1.00 2015 01 ssHH0005 sexsi.exS ssHH0005 sexsi.therm ssHH0005 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 122.9 40.3 0.6 36.1 22.1 0.4 58.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 123.4 62.0 0.0 57.3 30.8 0.6 87.6 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 123.4 86.3 0.0 81.5 38.7 0.8 87.6 2008 49.4 45.1 160.6 239.4 123.4 115.9 0.0 111.2 46.5 0.0 0.9 2009 51.9 45.1 160.6 262.1 123.4 138.6 0.0 133.9 51.1 0.0 0.9 2010 54.5 105.2 160.6 286.1 281.0 5.1 244.6 4.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 2011 58.3 105.2 160.6 306.2 300.3 5.9 225.3 5.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 2012 64.1 105.2 160.6 336.6 329.5 7.1 196.1 6.9 2.0 0.0 0.0 2013 68.0 105.2 160.6 357.2 349.2 8.0 176.4 7.7 2.2 0.0 0.0 2014 72.1 105.2 160.4 378.9 370.0 8.8 155.6 8.7 2.3 0.0 0.0 2015 76.8 118.0 160.0 403.2 399.2 4.1 187.8 4.1 1.0 0.0 0.1 2016 81.4 118.0 160.0 427.6 420.6 7.0 166.4 7.0 1.6 0.0 0.1 2017 89.7 118.0 160.0 471.0 451.6 19.4 135.4 19.4 4.1 0.0 0.2 2018 94.9 118.0 160.0 498.1 468.7 29.4 118.3 29.4 5.9 0.0 0.3 2019 100.6 118.0 160.0 528.3 487.0 41.3 100.0 41.3 7.8 0.0 0.3 2020 106.5 118.0 160.0 559.4 505.6 53.8 81.4 53.8 9.6 0.0 0.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 3.0 2006 0.0 0.6 2.5 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8 6.9 2007 20.9 0.6 2.5 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.3 29.3 2008 41.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.4 49.4 2009 20.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 29.8 29.8 2010 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 4.9 0.0 270.5 -2.8 267.7 2011 3.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.7 2012 6.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.9 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.8 2013 6.6 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 5.3 5.3 2014 3.1 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 2.3 2.3 2015 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 3.8 0.0 6.4 -1.5 4.9 2016 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 2017 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2018 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.4 2019 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.5 2020 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 3.7 3.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 99.6 99.7 260.0 260.1 10.0 % 87.0 87.1 227.9 227.9 12.0 % 77.3 77.3 201.3 201.3 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 89.3 89.3 249.6 249.7 10.0 % 79.0 79.1 219.8 219.9 12.0 % 70.9 71.0 194.9 195.0 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= ssHH0006 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL ssHH0006 2005-2020 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL ssHH0006 EDL DEMAND S XESET 1+2+3, REG BY HH DEPT OF ELECTRICITY ssHH0006 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ssHH0006 sexsi.fix NONE XESET01X 2.43 2005 01 ssHH0006 S.dem XESET01Z 2.25 2008 01 ssHH0006 sexsi.fp0 XESET02Z 2.61 2008 01 ssHH0006 sexsi.exS XESET03Z 1.62 2008 01 ssHH0006 sexsi.therm TAPONG1B 0.00 2008 01 ssHH0006 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2005 38.6 45.1 80.7 163.6 122.9 40.3 0.6 36.1 22.1 0.4 58.8 2006 41.9 45.1 80.7 186.0 123.4 62.0 0.0 57.3 30.8 0.6 87.6 2007 45.4 45.1 80.7 210.5 123.4 86.3 0.0 81.5 38.7 0.8 87.6 2008 49.4 128.9 80.7 239.4 237.8 1.6 114.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 13.5 2009 51.9 128.9 80.7 262.1 254.8 7.2 97.5 6.4 2.4 0.1 14.6 2010 54.5 128.9 80.7 286.1 270.8 15.2 81.4 13.9 4.9 0.1 21.4 2011 58.3 128.9 80.7 306.2 283.8 22.2 68.5 21.0 6.8 0.2 21.4 2012 64.1 128.9 80.7 336.6 302.1 34.1 50.1 32.4 9.6 0.3 28.8 2013 68.0 128.9 80.7 357.2 313.5 43.2 38.7 41.5 11.6 0.4 28.8 2014 72.1 128.9 80.4 378.9 323.6 54.7 28.6 53.1 14.0 0.5 36.8 2015 76.8 128.9 80.0 403.2 333.2 69.4 19.1 69.4 17.2 0.7 43.7 2016 81.4 128.9 80.0 427.6 342.5 84.3 9.8 84.3 19.7 0.9 46.1 2017 89.7 128.9 80.0 471.0 351.2 118.6 1.1 118.6 25.2 1.2 72.7 2018 94.9 128.9 80.0 498.1 352.3 144.4 0.0 144.4 29.0 1.5 87.6 2019 100.6 128.9 80.0 528.3 352.3 174.3 0.0 174.3 33.0 1.8 87.6 2020 106.5 128.9 80.0 559.4 352.3 205.0 0.0 205.0 36.7 2.1 87.6 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2001 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2002 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2003 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2004 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 17.5 17.5 2005 38.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 2.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.3 41.4 2006 40.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 44.5 44.6 2007 19.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 5.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.1 25.2 2008 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 2009 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.5 2010 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 1.3 2011 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2012 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 3.1 3.1 2013 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.9 2014 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 3.3 0.1 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.8 4.8 2015 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.0 2016 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.1 7.1 2017 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 7.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5 9.5 2018 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 8.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.1 11.1 2019 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 10.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0 13.0 2020 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.0 15.0 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 179.7 179.8 179.7 179.8 10.0 % 150.5 150.5 150.5 150.5 12.0 % 130.8 130.9 130.8 130.9 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 176.8 176.9 176.8 176.9 10.0 % 147.9 148.0 147.9 148.0 12.0 % 128.6 128.6 128.6 128.6 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

============================================================================================= sz000000 LAOS PDR GENERATION SYSTEM EXPANSION CENTRAL GRID LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL sz000000 2005-2020 THB EXT 2008 MAUNSELL INTERNATIONAL sz000000 MODIFIED EDL DEMAND NT2 2010 DEPT OF ELECTRICITY sz000000 MEDIUM FUEL PRICE NGIEP 2013 2004 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sz000000 sexsi.fix NONE NNGIEP1A 1.00 2010 01 sz000000 C.dem NNGIEPTA 1.00 2010 01 sz000000 sexsi.fp0 NNGUM05A 1.00 2012 01 sz000000 sexsi.exCz BAK002BA 1.00 2015 01 sz000000 sexsi.therm POT0001D 1.00 2018 01 sz000000 DUMMY --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Capacity (MW) Energy Production (GWh) EENS LOLP Year ----------------------- ---------------------------------------------- ----- ----- Demand Hydro Thermal Demand Hydro Thermal Export Import %Import (GWh) (d/a) --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 288.8 251.4 361.8 1519.1 1184.9 334.2 68.5 259.9 17.1 0.0 0.0 2006 313.1 251.4 361.8 1665.9 1206.6 459.2 46.8 380.3 22.8 0.0 0.0 2007 346.1 251.4 361.8 1862.5 1225.0 637.4 28.4 554.1 29.8 0.0 0.0 2008 373.0 251.4 361.8 2032.3 1236.3 796.0 17.2 710.7 35.0 0.0 0.0 2009 389.8 251.4 361.8 2151.9 1242.3 909.6 11.1 823.0 38.2 0.0 0.3 2010 412.7 539.6 355.8 2305.7 2278.9 26.9 607.8 24.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 2011 427.9 539.6 354.2 2391.1 2357.9 33.2 528.7 30.4 1.3 0.0 0.0 2012 450.4 581.5 354.2 2516.5 2486.1 30.4 696.2 28.8 1.1 0.0 0.0 2013 476.3 581.5 354.0 2661.2 2620.8 40.3 561.4 37.6 1.4 0.0 0.1 2014 504.2 581.5 354.0 2817.5 2739.3 78.2 443.0 69.6 2.5 0.0 0.1 2015 539.0 630.5 354.0 3011.7 2962.8 48.9 608.4 44.8 1.5 0.0 0.6 2016 566.5 630.5 354.0 3165.6 3078.0 87.6 493.2 78.9 2.5 0.0 1.9 2017 596.9 630.5 354.0 3335.4 3174.3 161.0 396.9 143.6 4.3 0.1 2.4 2018 628.2 642.0 354.0 3510.4 3298.4 211.9 365.3 192.2 5.5 0.1 3.0 2019 663.6 642.0 354.0 3707.8 3372.8 334.4 290.8 312.2 8.4 0.6 9.4 2020 698.9 642.0 354.0 3905.4 3425.0 478.5 238.6 452.8 11.6 1.9 25.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- US$ Hydro Thermal Other Environment System Costs --------------------- ------------------- -------------- -------------- --------------- Year Invest OMR Invest OMR Fuel Deficit Export Emission Other w/o EV with EV --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2005 34.9 3.4 0.0 0.1 17.8 0.0 1.4 6.5 0.0 54.8 61.4 2006 67.6 3.4 0.0 0.1 25.2 0.0 0.9 6.9 0.0 95.5 102.4 2007 99.5 3.4 0.0 0.1 35.9 0.0 0.6 7.1 0.0 138.4 145.6 2008 113.2 3.4 0.0 0.1 45.6 0.0 0.3 7.3 0.0 162.0 169.3 2009 87.2 3.4 0.0 0.1 52.4 0.0 0.2 7.4 0.0 143.0 150.4 2010 22.5 19.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 12.2 0.0 31.9 31.0 62.9 2011 37.1 19.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 10.6 0.0 0.0 47.6 47.6 2012 53.5 20.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.0 13.9 0.0 11.7 61.3 73.0 2013 53.5 20.0 0.0 0.0 2.4 0.0 11.2 0.0 0.0 64.6 64.6 2014 28.6 20.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 0.0 8.9 0.0 0.0 44.4 44.4 2015 6.5 21.4 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.0 12.2 0.0 0.0 18.7 18.7 2016 6.5 21.4 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.0 9.9 0.0 0.0 23.3 23.3 2017 3.1 21.4 0.0 0.0 9.6 0.0 7.9 0.0 0.0 26.2 26.2 2018 0.0 21.7 0.0 0.0 12.6 0.0 7.3 0.0 15.6 27.0 42.6 2019 0.0 21.7 0.0 0.0 20.1 0.1 5.8 0.0 0.0 36.1 36.1 2020 0.0 21.7 0.0 0.0 28.8 0.4 4.8 0.0 0.0 46.1 46.1 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.020 US$/kWh -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 749.1 774.9 778.5 804.3 10.0 % 628.2 652.2 653.2 677.3 12.0 % 540.7 563.2 562.2 584.7 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- P r e s e n t V a l u e s (mUS$) Exports @ 0.030 US$/kWh --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Discount Rate Technical Plus Emission Global Environm. Cost Plus Both --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 8.0 % 717.6 743.4 746.9 772.8 10.0 % 603.7 627.7 628.7 652.8 12.0 % 521.2 543.7 542.7 565.2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ANNEX 6.4

SEXSI OUTPUT FOR INTEGRATED CENTRAL GRID


Annex 6.4: Detailed SEXSI Output for Integrated Central Grid Case: Integrated Central Grid Discount rate: 8% / 10% / 12% p.a. Imports: 6.1 USc/kWh Exports: includes cases of 2 and 3 USc/kWh

ANNEX 6.5

SEXSI OUTPUT FOR SOUTHERN GRID


Annex 6.5: Detailed SEXSI Output for Southern Grid Case: Isolated Southern Grid (run SS000008) Discount rate 8%/10%/12% p.a. Exports 2 and 3 USc/kWh Imports 6.1 USc/kWh (results for 4.6 USc/kWh are not given)

MIH - Department of Electricity - Power System Development Plan 2004 for Lao PDR - Lahmeyer/Maunsell Consultants

FIXED RUN PARAMETERS AND NAMES OF DATA FILES SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 1

SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================

OVERVIEW OF FIXED RUN PARAMETERS OVERVIEW OF DATA FILES USED

-Zero Year to which all Cashflows Discounted 2003 -Scenario Definition File SS000008

-First Year Production Costing Simulation 2005 -Fixed Parameter File SEXSI.FIX

-Last Year Production Costing Simulation 2020 -File with Seasonal Demand Forecast (LDCs) S.dem

-Last Year Cashflow Analysis 2055 -File with Names of Existing Power Plants sexsi.exS

-File with Data Existing Thermal Plants sexsi.therm

-Annual Discount Rate (Base Case) 10.0 % -File with Data Candidate Thermal Plants sexsi.therm

-Number of Seasons per Year for Simulation 12 -File with Fuel Data sexsi.fp0

-File with System Operation Data DUMMY

HYDROPOWER TIME SERIES

-First Year Hydrology 1966 -Data for Hydro-projects are found in Files RIVRxxx.sum,

-Last Year Hydrology 2002 where RIVR stands for River Name and xxx for km to River Mouth

-First Month Hydrological Year 1

-Prefix for Files with Hydro-Capacity Series RPMT -Time Series Files are called RCMTRIVRxxxY and RPMTRIVRxxxY resp.,

-Prefix for Files with Cont. Power Series RCMT where Y stands for Project Alternative

-Demands for Irrigation Considered (if any) Yes

COST BASE

-Reference Year for all Costs 2003

-Currency Unit US$

-Weighing Factor Local Cost Component 1.00

-Weighing Factor Foreign Cost Component 1.00

-Weighing Factor Tax Component 0.00

RESERVE CRITERIA

-Min Target Reserve as Portion of Peak Load 0.00 %

-Min Reserve as Multiple largest Hydro Unit 0 x

-Min Reserve as Multiple largest Thermal Unit 0 x

-Additions based on Analysis Full Hydro Period

RELIABILITY CRITERIA AND VALUE UNSERVED ENERGY

-Max Average Annual LOLP 0.00274 -Line printer output file SS000008.lp

(moving average over 12 seasons) -File with cashflows for detailed analysis SS000008.cf

-Max LOLP permitted in anyone Season 0.00548

-Value kWh of Unserved Energy 0.20 US$

-Value kW of Unserved Power 0.00 US$

-Value kWh of Surplus Energy (after 2000) 0.05 US$

SIMULATION METHODS USED

-Maintenance Scheduling (Levelized Reserve) Yes

-Production Costing Method RLDC

OUTPUT

-Dispatched power stored for season 2

====================================================================================================================================


LIST OF THERMO-ELECTRIC PLANTS SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 4

SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================

Thermo-electric Plant Total Min. Net Heat Rates Outage Rates Construction Operation/Maintnc

------------------------ Commissioning Inst Load/ ---------------- Fuel ------------ Life ------------ -----------------

No Plant Name Loc or Retirement Cap. Blocks Base Incrmnt. Type Maint FOR Time Period Cost Varcost Fixcost

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(Seas-Year) (MW) (%) (kJ/kWh) (kJ/kWh) (Days/Yr) (%) (Yr) (Yr) (Mio.$) ($/MWh) ($/kWyr)

====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM Retire 1-2015 0.4 0/2 13243. 13243. 2 30 10.0 15 - - 5.0 15.0

2 XAMAKHIXAI Retire 1-2014 0.3 0/1 13243. 13243. 2 30 10.0 15 - - 5.0 15.0

3 IMPBANGYO Retire 1-3000 80.0 0/1 1. 1. 3 1 1.0 30 - - 61.0 0.0

4 IMPBANGY2 Commit 1-2005 80.0 0/1 1. 1. 3 1 1.0 30 2 5.0 61.0 0.0

====================================================================================================================================


LIST OF HYDRO-ELECTRIC POWER PLANTS SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 5

SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================

Hydro-electric Plant Inst Inst Ave Long Full Ave Ave Reservoir Construction Annual

------------------------ Commissioning Cap/ Cap Annual Term Supply Tailw Head Storage Life ------------- OMR

No Plant Name Repl or Retirement Units Fact Energy Flow Level Level Loss Max Min Time Time Cost Cost

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Alt. (Seas-Year) (MW) (-) (GWh) (m3/s) (masl) (masl) (m) (hectom3) (Yr) (Yr) (Mio.$) (Mio.$)

====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A Commit 1-2000 45.1/3 2.43 154.4 14.1 482.0 426.0 3.9 2 2 50 - - 0.64

2 HLAMP00G Commit 1-2010 56.1/2 1.75 249.4 6.5 820.0 220.0 22.7 269 119 50 4 66.5 0.81

====================================================================================================================================


DISPATCH HYDRO 2005 ANNUAL SUMMARY SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 6

SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================

Capacity Available Energy Dispatched Energy Unused Energy Plant Factor

------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------

No. Hydroplant ICF Inst Max Ave Min Max Ave Min Max Ave Min Ave Max Max Ave Min

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

*Qmean (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (%) (%) (%)

====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 97.79 86.72 66.14 67.65 100.03 24 21 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 45.06 45.09 154.37 86.72 67.65

====================================================================================================================================


DISPATCH THERMAL 2005 ANNUAL SUMMARY SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 7

SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================

Capacity Outages Spc Opr Cost Dispatched Energy Variable Operating Costs Plant Factor

Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------

No. Plant Units Rated Avg MSL Maint FOR Base Incr Max Ave Min Max Ave Min Max Ave Min

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

(MW) (MW) (%) (d/Yr) (%) (UScent/kWh) (GWh) (GWh) (GWh) (Cost in Millions US$) (%) (%) (%)

====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 2.36 1.81 1.30 0.033 0.026 0.018 67 51 37

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 1.47 1.12 0.82 0.021 0.016 0.012 67 51 37

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 93. 73. 63. 5.65 4.46 3.82 13 10 8

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 80.00 1 1.0 6.10 0.93 0.73 0.63 0.057 0.045 0.038 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 77. 4.55

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------

Capacity (MW): Thermal Inst= 160.65 Hydro Inst = 45.06 Total= 205.71 Demand= 38.60 Diff= 432.9 %

: Thermal Avg = 160.37 Hydro Capab= 45.09 Total= 205.47 Demand= 38.60 Diff= 432.3 %

Energy (GWh): Thermal = 76.82 Hydro = 86.72 Total= 163.54 Demand= 163.55 Diff= 0.0 %

Reliability : LOLP (hrs) = 0.5 EENS (GWh) = 0.01

Import(GWh/a): Average = 73.9 Minimum = 63.3 Maximum = 93.6 4.51

Import(% Dem): Average = 45.2 Minimum = 38.7 Maximum = 57.2



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 108.37 93.85 69.50 60.52 91.25 27 23 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 45.06 45.09 154.37 93.85 60.52

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 2.63 1.90 1.30 0.037 0.027 0.018 74 54 37

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 1.64 1.18 0.82 0.023 0.017 0.012 74 53 37

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 111. 88. 75. 6.78 5.38 4.56 15 12 10

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.11 0.88 0.75 0.068 0.054 0.046 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 92. 5.48

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 119.88 101.05 72.71 53.32 81.69 30 25 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 45.06 45.09 154.37 101.05 53.32

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 2.63 1.99 1.30 0.037 0.028 0.018 74 56 37

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 1.64 1.23 0.82 0.023 0.017 0.012 74 56 37

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 132. 105. 88. 8.06 6.42 5.35 18 15 12

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.32 1.05 0.88 0.081 0.064 0.053 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 109. 6.53

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 131.82 108.88 76.50 45.49 70.41 33 27 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 45.06 45.09 154.37 108.88 45.49

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 2.63 2.11 1.57 0.037 0.030 0.022 74 60 44

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 1.64 1.31 0.98 0.023 0.019 0.014 74 59 44

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 157. 126. 104. 9.58 7.67 6.32 22 17 14

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.57 1.26 1.04 0.096 0.077 0.063 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 130. 7.80

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 139.16 114.58 78.34 39.79 63.38 35 29 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 45.06 45.09 154.37 114.58 39.79

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 2.88 2.13 1.57 0.041 0.030 0.022 82 60 44

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 1.80 1.33 0.98 0.025 0.019 0.014 82 60 44

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 177. 143. 119. 10.81 8.70 7.24 25 20 16

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.77 1.43 1.19 0.108 0.087 0.072 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 147. 8.83

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 145.60 120.44 79.97 33.94 57.14 36 30 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 168.65 127.02 76.57 122.24 201.13 34 25 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 247.5 156.2

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 1.30 0.90 0.77 0.018 0.013 0.011 36 25 21

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 0.81 0.55 0.48 0.011 0.008 0.007 36 25 21

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 78. 37. 29. 4.77 2.25 1.76 11 5 4

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 0.78 0.37 0.29 0.048 0.022 0.018 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 39. 2.29

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 151.84 125.06 81.31 29.31 51.95 38 31 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 177.49 133.69 78.34 115.57 194.66 36 27 15

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 258.7 144.9

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 1.56 1.18 0.77 0.022 0.017 0.011 44 33 21

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 0.98 0.71 0.48 0.014 0.010 0.007 44 32 21

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 88. 45. 36. 5.34 2.75 2.19 12 6 5

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 0.88 0.45 0.36 0.053 0.028 0.022 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 47. 2.81

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 160.15 131.45 82.22 22.92 44.20 40 33 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 190.30 141.70 81.98 107.56 187.88 38 28 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 273.1 130.5

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 1.57 1.37 1.30 0.022 0.019 0.018 44 38 37

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 0.98 0.85 0.76 0.014 0.012 0.011 44 38 34

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 104. 61. 49. 6.32 3.70 2.96 14 8 6

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.04 0.61 0.49 0.063 0.037 0.030 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 63. 3.77

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 164.68 135.10 82.22 19.27 39.12 41 34 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 198.34 146.84 86.58 102.41 182.73 40 29 17

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 281.9 121.7

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 1.57 1.50 1.30 0.022 0.021 0.018 44 42 37

2 XAMAKHIXAI 1 0.25 0.23 30 10.0 1.41 0.98 0.93 0.82 0.014 0.013 0.012 44 42 37

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 115. 72. 60. 7.04 4.40 3.67 16 10 8

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.15 0.72 0.60 0.070 0.044 0.037 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 161. 160. 75. 4.47

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 169.21 138.47 82.22 15.90 34.06 42 35 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 206.04 152.23 91.72 97.02 176.27 41 30 18

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 290.7 112.9

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 MLAMAM 2 0.40 0.37 30 10.0 1.41 1.83 1.56 1.30 0.026 0.022 0.018 52 44 37

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 129. 86. 73. 7.89 5.23 4.43 18 12 10

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.29 0.86 0.73 0.079 0.052 0.044 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 88. 5.30

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 174.42 141.54 82.22 12.83 28.83 44 35 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 212.89 158.51 96.34 90.75 168.75 43 32 19

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 300.0 103.6

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 146. 102. 88. 8.89 6.23 5.36 20 14 12

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.46 1.02 0.88 0.089 0.062 0.054 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 103. 6.29

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 177.99 144.03 82.22 10.34 24.05 45 36 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 219.17 165.14 102.29 84.12 162.76 44 33 20

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 309.2 94.5

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 160. 117. 102. 9.78 7.15 6.25 22 16 14

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.60 1.17 1.02 0.098 0.072 0.062 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 118. 7.22

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 183.43 147.56 82.22 6.81 16.65 46 37 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 227.98 176.59 113.78 72.67 151.37 46 35 23

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 324.2 79.5

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 187. 145. 125. 11.40 8.87 7.63 26 20 17

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 1.87 1.45 1.25 0.114 0.089 0.076 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 147. 8.95

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 186.30 149.31 82.22 5.06 12.73 47 37 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 233.22 183.46 121.53 65.80 143.76 47 37 24

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 332.8 70.9

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 206. 164. 140. 12.58 9.99 8.51 29 23 19

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 2.06 1.64 1.40 0.126 0.100 0.085 0 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 165. 10.09

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 188.52 150.85 82.22 3.52 9.05 47 38 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 237.94 190.64 131.09 58.62 134.82 48 38 26

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 341.5 62.1

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 225. 185. 158. 13.75 11.27 9.62 32 26 22

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 7.08 2.03 1.58 0.432 0.124 0.096 1 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 187. 11.40

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------









SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


------------------------- ------------------- ------------------- ------------- -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

1 XESET01A 2.43 45.06 45.10 45.09 45.00 195.90 154.37 82.22 190.03 152.01 82.22 2.36 5.98 48 38 20

2 HLAMP00G 1.75 56.09 56.10 55.13 53.70 310.99 249.26 196.67 242.01 197.77 141.72 51.49 125.08 49 40 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Hydro 101.2 100.2 403.6 349.8 53.9

====================================================================================================================================



SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================


Thermal ---------------- ----------- ------------ ------------------- ------------------------ -------------


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


====================================================================================================================================

3 IMPBANGYO 1 80. 80. 1 1.0 6.10 242. 207. 178. 14.79 12.61 10.86 34 29 25

4 IMPBANGY2 1 80.00 79.78 1 1.0 6.10 14.91 2.84 1.78 0.910 0.174 0.109 2 0 0

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total Thermal 160. 160. 210. 12.78

====================================================================================================================================

SYSTEM TOTALS

-------------








SYSTEM EXPANSION STEPS SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 38

SCENARIO: SS000008

====================================================================================================================================

CAPACITY --> MW

CAP DEM % RESRV % RESRV

25.0 75.0 125.0 175.0 225.0 275.0 (MW) GROSS NET

+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------------+

! * ! IMPBANGY2 (1x80MW) ! !

2005 ! * ! ! 38.6 432.9 432.3 !

! * ! ! !

+ +-+-----------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2006 ! * ! ! 41.9 391.0 389.8 !

! * ! ! !

+ ++----------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2007 ! * ! ! 45.4 353.1 352.1 !

! * ! ! !

+ +-+--------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2008 ! * ! ! 49.4 316.4 315.5 !

! * ! ! !

+ ++-------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2009 ! * ! ! 51.9 296.4 295.5 !

! * ! ! !

+ - - - ++------------------------------------------------------------+----------------------+ +-------------------------+

! HLAMP00G (2x28MW) ! ! !

2010 ! * ! ! 54.5 380.4 377.7 !

! * ! ! !

+ ++----------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2011 ! * ! ! 58.3 349.1 346.6 !

! * ! ! !

+ +--+-------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2012 ! * ! ! 64.1 308.4 306.2 !

! * ! ! !

+ ++------------------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2013 ! * ! ! 68.0 285.0 282.9 !

! * ! ! !

+ +-+----------------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! XAMAKHIXAI (-1x0.25MW) ! ! !

2014 ! * ! ! 72.1 262.8 260.8 !

! * ! ! !

+ - - - - - - - +-+-------------------------------------------------------------------------++ +-------------------------+

! MLAMAM (-2x0.20MW) ! ! !

2015 ! * ! ! 76.8 240.0 238.3 !

! * ! ! !

+ +-+-----------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2016 ! * ! ! 81.4 220.8 219.2 !

! * ! ! !

+ +--+--------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2017 ! * ! ! 89.7 191.1 189.6 !

! * ! ! !

+ +-+------------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2018 ! * ! ! 94.9 175.2 173.8 !

! * ! ! !

+ +--+---------------------------------------------------------------+ +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2019 ! * ! ! 100.6 159.6 158.2 !

! * ! ! !

+ - - - - - - - - - - - - - +-+-------------------------------------------------------------+ - +-------------------------+

! * ! ! !

2020 ! * ! ! 106.5 145.2 143.9 !

! * ! ! !

+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------+-------------------------+

25.0 75.0 125.0 175.0 225.0 275.0

CAPACITY --> MW

* = Annual peak demand for sent-out capacity

! = Total system installed capacity


CASH FLOW ANALYSIS (Million US$) - Expansion period SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 40

EXPANSION / FUEL PRICE SCENARIO: SS000008 / fp0

====================================================================================================================================

| H Y D R O P L A N T S | T H E R M A L P L A N T S | S Y S T E M

|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

| INVESTMENT FIXED OMR | INVESTMENT FIXED OMR VARIABLE OMR | PENALTY TOTAL GRAND

Year | Local Foreign Local Foreign | Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign | Local Foreign TOTAL

====================================================================================================================================

2003 | 0.00 0.00 - - | 0.13 2.38 - - - - | - 0.13 2.38 2.50

2004 | 0.00 0.00 - - | 0.13 2.38 - - - - | - 0.13 2.38 2.50

2005 | 0.00 0.00 0.32 0.32 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 4.32 | 0.00 0.55 4.65 5.2

| | |

2006 | 1.47 9.28 0.32 0.32 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 5.20 | 0.00 2.07 14.81 16.9

2007 | 3.07 19.43 0.32 0.32 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 6.20 | 0.00 3.72 25.96 29.7

2008 | 3.07 19.43 0.32 0.32 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.39 7.41 | 0.00 3.79 27.17 31.0

2009 | 1.47 9.28 0.32 0.32 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.44 8.39 | 0.00 2.23 18.00 20.2

2010 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.12 2.18 | 0.00 0.84 2.91 3.8

| | |

2011 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.14 2.67 | 0.00 0.87 3.40 4.3

2012 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.19 3.58 | 0.00 0.92 4.31 5.2

2013 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.22 4.25 | 0.00 0.95 4.98 5.9

2014 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.27 5.04 | 0.00 0.99 5.77 6.8

2015 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 5.98 | 0.00 1.04 6.70 7.7

| | |

2016 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.36 6.86 | 0.00 1.09 7.59 8.7

2017 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.45 8.51 | 0.00 1.17 9.23 10.4

2018 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 9.58 | 0.00 1.23 10.31 11.5

2019 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.57 10.83 | 0.00 1.29 11.55 12.8

2020 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 12.14 | 0.00 1.36 12.87 14.2

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total | 9.1 57.4 9.57 9.57 | 0.3 4.8 0.05 0.05 5.44 103.13 | 0.00 24.4 174.9 199.3

(%) | 4.55 28.81 4.80 4.80 | 0.13 2.38 0.02 0.02 2.73 51.74 | 0.00 12.23 87.77 100.00

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


CASH FLOW ANALYSIS (Million US$) - Post-expansion period SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 41


====================================================================================================================================


|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Year | Local Foreign Local Foreign | Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign | Local Foreign TOTAL

====================================================================================================================================

| | |

2021 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 12.14 | 0.00 1.36 12.87 14.2

2022 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 12.14 | 0.00 1.36 12.87 14.2

. | . . . . | . . . . . . | . . .

. | . . . . | . . . . . . | . . .

. | . . . . | . . . . . . | . . .

2053 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 12.14 | 0.00 1.36 12.87 14.2

2054 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 12.14 | 0.00 1.36 12.87 14.2

2055 | 0.00 0.00 0.73 0.73 | 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.64 12.14 | 0.00 1.36 12.87 14.2

====================================================================================================================================

Salvage| -0.45 -2.87 - - | -0.07 -1.35 - - - - | - -0.52 -4.22 -4.7

====================================================================================================================================

PV 8 %| 6.4 40.7 6.73 6.73 | 0.3 5.0 0.03 0.03 4.58 86.86 | 0.01 18.0 139.3 157.3

PV 10 %| 5.9 37.5 5.14 5.14 | 0.3 4.8 0.03 0.03 3.41 64.69 | 0.01 14.8 112.2 126.9

PV 12 %| 5.5 34.7 4.07 4.07 | 0.2 4.6 0.02 0.02 2.65 50.30 | 0.00 12.5 93.7 106.2

====================================================================================================================================

Note : Year to which all costs are discounted: 2003

Hydrological time series used : 1966 - 2002

Expansion planning period : 2005 - 2020

Penalty includes charges for unserved demand at the rate of 0.20 US$/kWh and 0.00 US$/kW

Taxes are not included in cash flows

Variable OMR costs include average annual fuel costs


PRESENT VALUE (MIO.US$) OF UNUSED ENERGY SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 42


====================================================================================================================================

|

Annual | Credit for Surplus Energy in US$/kWh

Discount |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rate | 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050

====================================================================================================================================

8 (%) | 4.342 8.683 13.025 17.366 21.708 26.049 30.391 34.733 39.074 43.416

10 (%) | 3.516 7.032 10.549 14.065 17.581 21.097 24.614 28.130 31.646 35.162

12 (%) | 2.921 5.843 8.764 11.685 14.607 17.528 20.449 23.370 26.292 29.213

====================================================================================================================================


PVALUE (MIO.US$) AFTER CREDIT FOR UNUSED ENERGY SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 43


====================================================================================================================================

|


Discount |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rate | 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050

====================================================================================================================================

8 (%) | 152.995 148.653 144.312 139.970 135.629 131.287 126.945 122.604 118.262 113.921

10 (%) | 123.431 119.915 116.399 112.883 109.366 105.850 102.334 98.818 95.301 91.785

12 (%) | 103.278 100.357 97.436 94.514 91.593 88.672 85.750 82.829 79.908 76.986

====================================================================================================================================


PVALUE (MIO.US$) AFTER CREDIT FOR UNUSED ENERGY AND CO2-TAX SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 44


====================================================================================================================================

|


Discount |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rate | 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.035 0.040 0.045 0.050

====================================================================================================================================

8 (%) | 169.596 165.255 160.913 156.572 152.230 147.889 143.547 139.205 134.864 130.522

10 (%) | 138.491 134.975 131.459 127.943 124.426 120.910 117.394 113.878 110.361 106.845

12 (%) | 116.995 114.073 111.152 108.231 105.309 102.388 99.467 96.545 93.624 90.703

====================================================================================================================================

Emission Costs (US$/ton): CO2: 5.00, SO2: 300.00, NOx: 100.00, Dust: 100.00

====================================================================================================================================


PRESENT VALUE (mUS$) AFTER PENALTY FOR SYSTEM EMISSIONS SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 45


====================================================================================================================================

| SYSTEM PRESENT VALUE

Annual | PENALTY SYSTEM PRESENT VALUE EXTERNAL COSTS WITH EXTERNAL COSTS

Discount |-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rate | Deficits Local Foreign Total CO2 SO2 NOx DUST Other Total

====================================================================================================================================

8 (%) | 0.01 18.02 139.30 157.34 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 157.42

10 (%) | 0.01 14.76 112.18 126.95 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 127.02

12 (%) | 0.00 12.47 93.72 106.20 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 106.27

====================================================================================================================================

Emission Costs (US$/ton): CO2: 5.00, SO2: 300.00, NOx: 100.00, Dust: 100.00

====================================================================================================================================


LONG RUN AVERAGE INCREMENTAL COST (USc/kWh) SEXSI LISTING 2 MAY 2004 Page 46


====================================================================================================================================

====================================================================================================================================


|----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Disc R | Local Foreign Local Foreign | Local Foreign Local Foreign Local Foreign | Local Foreign TOTAL

====================================================================================================================================

8 % | 0.25 1.60 0.26 0.26 | 0.01 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.18 3.41 | 0.00 0.71 5.46 6.17

10 % | 0.33 2.07 0.28 0.28 | 0.01 0.26 0.00 0.00 0.19 3.57 | 0.00 0.81 6.18 7.00

12 % | 0.41 2.59 0.30 0.30 | 0.02 0.35 0.00 0.00 0.20 3.75 | 0.00 0.93 6.99 7.92

====================================================================================================================================

Note : Present value of total generation cost / Present value of energy production excluding inherited hydro

Present value of energy at 8 % = 2549.88 GWh



ANNEX 7

“SESAMEE” SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL MITIGATION CASH FLOW MODEL

ANNEX 7.1: Sample Spreadsheet

ANNEX 7.2: List of SESAMEE Parameters

ANNEX 7.3: Parameter Valuation Methodology

ANNEX 7.1

SAMPLE SPREADSHEET

ANNEX 7.2

LIST OF SESAMEE PARAMETERS

ANNEX 7.3

PARAMETER VALUATION METHODOLOGY


ANNEX 7

SESAMEE MODEL

PARAMETER VALUATION METHODOLOGY

Monetary valuation of environmental and social impacts and mitigations in many cases depends on referencing to standards or markets. Multilateral lenders have adopted policies which give preference to international (or global) standards and use values from real or notional global markets. Local standards and markets tend to deliver lower valuations for some impact consequences. Higher international values are the consequence (even the objective) of development. To resolve these fundamental differences, the Consultant elected to provide two sets of 50 year cash flows. One is the Global Set which shows the expected economic cost of a project if international standards and valuations are used. The other is the Local Set which shows the economic costs to be expected if lenders make no interventions beyond lending money. (Questions of risk have not yet been addressed systematically in SESAMEE). The estimation of the costs (benefits have been treated as negative costs) of a single event consequence chain is quite complicated since it needs to take into account:

• interactions of impact events; • overlapping and sequencing in consequences; • alternative mitigation measures (including no mitigation); • changes in populations, environments and values over the planning

period. The numbers of distinct consequence chains for a relatively straightforward hydropower project such as Nam Ngum 3 are given in the following Table A7.1. Two examples from the Nam Ngum 3 Project will help to illustrate the procedure:

Example 1: Impacts on Fishing Cats in one downstream river section

Example 2: Logging of NN3 Reservoir


Table A7.1: Impact Consequence Chains – Nam Ngum 3 Project

IMPACT SECTOR No. OF DISTINCT CONSEQUENCE CHAINS

Reservoir or headpond & catchments

64

Construction sites 49

Transmission line 31

Access roads 37

Donor river & catchments 344

Recipient river & catchments 0

Studies, monitoring & regulation 8

All sectors 533

P

ower

Sys

tem

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n

Augu

st 2

004

Fina

l Rep

ort –

Vol

B: A

nnex

es

3

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

SE

CT

OR

R

ELE

VA

NT

DIM

EN

SIO

NS

Dono

r R

iver

Reach A

Length

of

Reach

Gra

d-

ient

of

Reach

Mean

Annual

Flo

w

Mean

Hig

hest

Month

ly

Flo

w

Mean

Low

est

Month

ly

Flo

w

7 d

ay

maxm

. C

hang

e in

D.S

eason

Degre

e

Wate

r Q

ua

lity

Impm

nt

A

4.3

5km

B

0.6

6%

H

100m

3/

s

I 280m

3/s

J

15m

3/s

K

4.8

m3/s

L

0.0

1

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

Fillin

g

Sta

rt o

f P

roje

ct

Sta

rt o

f F

illin

g

Dura

t-io

n o

f F

illin

g

Fillin

g

Flo

w

Fillin

g

Wate

r Q

ua

lity

Habitat

Conditio

nD

uring

Fillin

g

E

Yea

r E

E

+4.6

7=

Fyr

G

0.1

64yr

M

0.0

001

m3/s

N

0.5

0

H*I

*J*K

*L*M

*N=

P

=1

-08

IMP

AC

T

EF

FE

CT

Less

Fis

hin

g

Cats

W

idth

of F

.C.

Habitat

Are

a o

f F

.C.

Habitat

De

nsity

of F

.C.

per

ha

No. F

.C.

in 2

004

Index o

f R

ari

ty o

f S

pe

cie

s

Rate

of

change in

F.C

. num

be

rs

No. F

.C

in y

r F

Intl.

Valu

e

F.C

.

Local

Valu

e

F.C

.

B→

C15m

fo

r 0.6

6%

A*C

=D

6.9

60

ha

Q

0.1

R

=D

*Q0.6

96

S

1.5

S→

T

0.9

85 f

or

rarity

in

dex 1

.5

R*T

=U

0.6

49

V

$750

W

$15

P

ower

Sys

tem

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n

Augu

st 2

004

Fina

l Rep

ort –

Vol

B: A

nnex

es

4

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

SE

CT

OR

MIT

IGA

TIO

N A

ND

CO

MP

EN

SA

TIO

N

Donor

Riv

er

Reach A

M

itig

ation 1

C

aptu

re &

relo

cate

(glo

bal costs

only

)

No

altern

-ative

arr

ange-

ments

possib

le

M

inm

. no.

to b

e

relo

cate

d

Cost o

f cap

ture

+

re

loca

tion

pe

r F

.C.

Cost o

f cap

ture

+

re-loca

tion

Ris

k

facto

rM

itig

ation

1 c

ost fo

r pla

nnin

g

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

a

50

b

$500

a*b

=c

$25

,00

0d

2

c*d

= e

$

50

,000

Mitig

ation 2

Pro

tect in

Substitu

te P

rote

cte

d

Habitat (

glo

bal &

local costs

the s

am

e)

Fillin

g

Fillin

g

pre

cedes

Div

ers

ion

:rip

arian

rele

ase

not

pra

ctical

Min

m.

Are

a to

be

Pro

tecte

d

Annual

cost per

ha o

f pro

tection

50 y

rs

pro

tection

of 500ha

Ris

k

facto

rM

itig

ation

2 c

ost fo

r pla

nnin

g

f

500

ha

g

$3.5

f *

g *

9.9

=h

$17

,32

5

i 1

00

i*

h =

j

$1

,732

,50

0

IMP

AC

T

EF

FE

CT

Sele

ct A

ppro

priate

Costs

for

Impact E

ffect

Less

Fis

hin

g

Cats

No

mitig

ation

case loss

(glo

bal)

No

mitig

ation

case loss

(local)

Sele

ct

low

est cost

for

glo

bal

loss

Sele

ct

low

est cost

for

local lo

ss

U

*Z*P

*V=

k

$405

.71

U*Z

*P*W

= m

$8.1

1

e/j/k

=

n

$405

.71

e/j/m

=

p

$8.1

1

P

ower

Sys

tem

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n

Augu

st 2

004

Fina

l Rep

ort –

Vol

B: A

nnex

es

5

Dis

trib

ution o

f costs

C

aptu

re &

relo

cation c

osts

$25,0

00

Pre

-C

onst.

period

Years

1-1

0Y

ears

11-5

0

GLO

BA

L

CO

ST

S

$75

00

$1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 $1750 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

0 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

LO

CA

L

CO

ST

S$

0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

Substitu

te P

rote

cte

d H

abitat costs

$17,3

25

Pre

-C

onst.

period

Years

1-1

0Y

ears

11-5

0

GLO

BA

L

CO

ST

S

$0

$1733 0 0

00

00

00

0

$390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390

LO

CA

L

CO

ST

S$

0

$1733 0 0

00

00

00

0

$390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390 $390

Unavoid

ed E

nvironm

enta

l Losses $

405.7

1 (

Glo

bal) o

r $8.1

1

(Lo

cal)

P

re-

Const.

period Y

ea

rs

1-4

Y

ears

5-1

4Y

ears

15-5

0

GLO

BA

L

CO

ST

S

$0

0

0 0

0

$40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 $40.4 0

00

00

00

00

0 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

LO

CA

L

CO

ST

S$

0

0 0

00

$0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 $0.8 0

00

00

00

00

0 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0

P

ower

Sys

tem

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n

Augu

st 2

004

Fina

l Rep

ort –

Vol

B: A

nnex

es

6

IMP

AC

TE

VE

NT

S

EC

TO

R

RE

LE

VA

NT

DIM

EN

SIO

NS

Res

ervo

ir or

H

eadp

ond

Cre

atio

n

Are

a to

be

flo

oded

Le

ng

th

of sh

ore

at F

SL

Slo

pes

above

F

SL

Pro

fit-

ability

of

loggin

g

pe

r m

3

Incre

m-

en

tal

cost o

f h

arv

est

Pro

fits

fro

m log

gin

g

ove

r 3

.67

years

E

xte

nt o

f lo

ggin

g

beyo

nd

FS

L

without

man

age

me

nt

A

2

27

6h

a

N

192

km

E

21

%

K

-$50

A,C

,J?

L

-$

30

K+

L*C

*G*J

=

M

-$1

,280

,64

0

E?

R

200

m

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

Inund-

atio

n

Sta

rt o

f P

roje

ct

Sta

rt o

f F

illin

g

V

olu

me

of T

imbe

r in

a

rea

s a

bove

FS

L in

Y

r B

Pro

fits

fro

m

loggin

g in

are

as a

bove

F

SL

B

Y

ear

B

C

3.6

7

N*R

*D*G

*B=

S

25

,041

m3

K+

L*C

*G*S

=T

-$

2,1

80

,93

0

IMP

AC

T

EF

FE

CT

Loss o

f T

imb

er

Density

of

tim

ber

per

ha

Secu

rity

Con

d-

itio

ns

Ra

te o

f chan

ge

in

tim

be

r vo

lum

e

Vo

lum

e

of

tim

ber

in 2

004

Vo

lum

e

of

tim

ber

in Y

r B

Inte

r-n

ationa

l va

lue

tre

es

as h

ab

ita

t p

er

m3

Loca

l V

alu

e

of T

imber

pe

r m

3

D

6.1

45

m

3/h

a

F

3

F?

G1

.02

A

*D=

H1

3,9

86

m

3

H*G

*B=

J

15

,422

m

3

K+

1=

P

$51

K?

Q

$10

0

P

ower

Sys

tem

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n

Augu

st 2

004

Fina

l Rep

ort –

Vol

B: A

nnex

es

7

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

SE

CT

OR

MIT

IGA

TIO

N A

ND

CO

MP

EN

SA

TIO

N

Mitig

ation 1

N

o L

oggin

g. N

ot pra

ctical

No

Altern

- ative F

SL

Mitig

ation 2

C

onfine L

oggin

g to R

eserv

oir A

rea

Res

ervo

ir or

H

eadp

ond

Cre

atio

n

Local costs

of

mgt. to try

to

pre

vent

loggin

g a

bove

FS

L

Ris

ks o

f m

anagem

ent not

meeting

Inte

rnational

sta

ndard

s

Local costs

of

mgt. n

eeded

to a

chie

ve

inte

rnational

sta

ndard

s

IMP

AC

T

EV

EN

T

N

*J/A

*C=

a

$21

6,3

04

b

2

a*b

=c

$432,6

08

Inund-

ation

Econ-

om

ics

depend

on F

illing

Tim

eta

ble

bein

g m

et

N

et

local

costs

of

Mitig

ation 2

(a

ssum

e m

gt.

not effective,

but has to b

e

trie

d)

Net glo

bal costs

of

Mitig

ation 2

effecte

d to a

chie

ve

inte

rnational

sta

ndard

s

Net glo

bal

costs

apply

ing

mitig

ation 2

to

try to p

revent

loggin

g a

bove

FS

L

IMP

AC

T

EF

FE

CT

e-a

=f

-$3,4

63,9

05

J*C

*G(Q

-P)-

c=

g

-$351,7

86

d-a

=h

-$1,3

21,8

74

Loss o

f T

imber

Sele

ct A

ppro

priate

Costs

for

Impact E

ffect

No m

itig

ation

case loss o

r benefit

(glo

bal)

No m

itig

ation c

ase

loss o

r benefit

(local)

S

ele

ct lo

west

cost fo

r glo

bal

loss

Sele

ct lo

west

cost fo

r lo

cal

loss

J*C

*G*(

Q-P

)+

S*C

*G*(

K+

L-P

)=

d

-$1,5

38,1

78

J*C

*G*Q

+

S*C

*G*(

K+

L)=

e

-$3,6

80,2

09

g/d

/h=

j

-$1

,32

1,8

74

f/e=

k

-$3,4

63,9

05

P

ower

Sys

tem

Dev

elop

men

t Pla

n

Augu

st 2

004

Fina

l Rep

ort –

Vol

B: A

nnex

es

8

Dis

trib

ution

of costs

Pre

-C

on

st.

pe

riod

No loggin

g $0

.78

M g

lob

al; $

1.5

4M

loca

l

GLO

BA

L

CO

ST

S

$0

00

0 0

$0.78M 00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

0 0

0

LO

CA

L

CO

ST

S$0

0 0

0 0

$1.54M 00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0

Lo

gg

ing

witho

ut m

itig

atio

n -

$1

.54M

glo

ba

l; -$

3.6

8M

lo

ca

l

GLO

BA

L

CO

ST

S

$0

$0.42M $0.42M $0.42M $0.28M 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0

LO

CA

L

CO

ST

S$

0

$1.00M $1.00M $1.00M $0.67M 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0

Log

gin

g w

ith

mitig

atio

n -

$1

.32

M g

loba

l; o

r -$

3.4

6 loca

l

GLO

BA

L

CO

ST

S

$0

$0.36M $0.36M $0.36M $0.24M 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0

LO

CA

L

CO

ST

S$0

$0.94M $0.94M $0.94M $0.63M 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0 0

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00 0

0

ANNEX 8

DEMAND FORECAST

ANNEX 8.1: Demand Forecast Methodology

ANNEX 8.2: PSDP Load Forecast

ANNEX 8.3: Comparison of Demand Forecasts

ANNEX 8.4: Spreadsheets

ANNEX 8.1

DEMAND FORECAST METHODOLOGY


ANNEX 8

DEMAND FORECAST This annex contains the following:

a) outlines the demand forecasting methodology in the form of flow charts

b) reviews the demand forecast assumptions used in the JICA study

c) reviews the demand forecast assumptions applied in the EdL Power Development Plan and

d) provides printouts of the demand forecasts for each province.


ANNEX 8.1: DEMAND FORECAST METHODOLOGY

Population GrowthForecast -

2004 - 2020

The Householdsof Lao PDR, LECS

1997/98 LowPopulation Growth

Scenario

HouseholdsGrowth Forecast

2004 - 2020

LaoSocioeconomicDevelopment

StrategyElectrification

Targets90% - 2020

ResidentialEnergy

Consumption perHousehold

2004 - 2020

EdL KhammouneField Data 2003JICA MasterplanStudy Sept 2002EdL household

Sales Data 1999

Non ResidentialEnergy

Consumption perVillage

2004 - 2020

ADB NorthernArea Power

Sector StrategyStudy March 2001

Non ResidentialPoint Loads

EdL PowerDevelopment Plan

PDP 2002-2012July 2003

Total No ofVillages

2004 - 2020.

PopulationCensus 1995

Total Population2004


VillageElectrification

Target2004 - 2020.

HouseholdElectrification

Target2004 - 2020.


Non ResidentialIrrigation

Allowance perHousehold

2004 - 2020


ConsumptionGDP Related2004 -2020

System Losses2004-2020

Annual GDPStatistics

EdL EnergyConsumptions by

Tarrif Category


PDP 2002-2012July 2003

EdL HistoricalSystem Loss and

Future LossTargets

System LoadFactor

2004-2005

EdL HistoricalSystem Load

Factor and FutureLoad Factor

Targets

Total Energy Consumption (kWh)Peak Power Demand (MW)

Load ForecastProcess and Data Sources




Scenario

LaoSocioeconomicDevelopment

StrategyElectrification

Targets90% - 2020


Sales Data 1999



EdL PowerDevelopment PlanPDP 2002-2012

July 2003

Total PopulationForecast, IncludingPopulation ForecastHousehold Forecastand Village Forecast

2004 - 2020Population_est_f.xls.



EdL EnergyConsumptions byTariff Category

EdL PowerDevelopment PlanPDP 2002-2012

July 2003


Future LossTargets



TargetsDemand Forecast Component Spreadsheets

Grid ElectrifiedForecast by ProvinceIncluding PopulationForecast HouseholdForecast and Village

Forecast2004 - 2020

RE_high_scenario.xls.

Country Electrification Targets by a)Grid Connected, b) Pre Grid and c) Off

Grid2004-2020

Revised_Electrification_Ratio_Estimates_Rev4.xls

1) Northern Region Load Forecast (kWh, MW) 2004-2020

Northern_high.xls2) Central 1 Region Load Forecast (kWh, MW)

2004-2020Central_1_high.xls

3) Central 2 and Southern Region Load Forecast(kWh, MW) 2004-2020

Central_2_&_S_high.xls

Country GDP andElasticity Forecast

2004 - 2020GDP_Vs_Energy_

Cons.xls

Country LoadForecast

2004-2020Total_high.xls


Population GrowthForecast -

2004 - 2020



Scenario

HouseholdsGrowth Forecast

2004 - 2020

ResidentialEnergy

Consumption perHousehold

2004 - 2020


Sales Data 1999


Consumption perVillage

2004 - 2020



Non ResidentialPoint Loads


PDP 2002-2012July 2003

Total No ofVillages

2004 - 2020.


Total Population2004


VillageElectrification

Target2004 - 2020.

HouseholdElectrification

Target2004 - 2020.


Non ResidentialIrrigation

Allowance perHousehold

2004 - 2020


ConsumptionGDP Related2004 -2020

System Losses2004-2020


EdL EnergyConsumptions by

Tariff Category


PDP 2002-2012July 2003


Future LossTargets

System LoadFactor

2004-2005



Targets

Total Energy Consumption (kWh)Peak Power Demand (MW)

Demand ForecastReviews and Changes

ChangedElectrification

Targets

Included OffGrid Targets

ReviewedResidential

EnergyConsumption

ReviewedPoint Loads

Updated2002 actual

kWh

AppliedDiversity toPeak Power

Demand


1. SUMMARY OF JICA METHODOLOGY

1.1 Existing Power Demand Forecast

The JICA methodology compared the following power demand forecasts:

• EdL’s own power demand forecast for the period of 2000 to 2020

• The Power Sector Strategy Study demand forecast for the period 2000 to 2020 funded by the ADB (PSSS, March 2001)

• The Hydropower Development Strategy Study funded by the World Bank (HDSS, January 2000)

• Also included here for completeness are the JICA electricity demand forecasts for i) the JICA high scenario and ii) the JICA low scenario and iii) the latest EdL PDP forecast, July 2003

The power demand forecasts are summarised as follows:

Summary of Power Demand Forecast, EdL

(Source: EdL, October 2001)

Summary of High Case Power Demand Forecast, PSSS Study (Source: Draft Final Report for Power Sector Strategy Study, March 2001)

Item Unit 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Energy Consumption GWh 648.6 1257.4 1963.3 2754.6 3682.2Average Growth Rate % 14.2% 9.3% 7.0% 6.0%Peak Load MW 172.1 321.4 464.2 612.2 791Average Growth Rate % 13.3% 7.6% 5.7% 5.3%Load Factor % 43 44.7 48.3 51.4 53.1

Item Unit 2000 2005 2010Energy Sold GWh 663.2 1304.6 2201.9Energy Losses GWh 221.1 326.1 550.5

% 25% 20% 20%Energy Sent Out GWh 884.3 1630.7 2752.4Average Growth Rate % 13.0% 11.0%Max Demand Sent Out MW 195.4 317.3 535.9Average Growth Rate % 10.2% 11.1%Load Factor Sent Out % 58.8 58.7 58.6


Summary of Base Case Power Demand Forecast, PSSS Study (Source: Draft Final Report for Power Sector Strategy Study, March 2001)

Summary of Base Case Demand Forecast, HDSS Study (Source: Draft Final Report for Hydropower Development Strategy for Lao PDR, January 2000)

Summary of Electricity Demand Forecast (High Scenario), JICA Study (Source: The Study on Master Plan of Transmission Line and Substations in Lao PDR, Final Report, September 2002)

Summary of Electricity Demand Forecast (Low Scenario), JICA Study (Source: The Study on Master Plan of Transmission Line and Substations in Lao PDR, Final Report, September 2002)

Item Unit 2000 2005 2010Energy Sold GWh 653.4 1222.6 2012.2Energy Losses GWh 217.8 305.6 505.3

% 25% 20% 20%Energy Sent Out GWh 871.2 1528.2 2526.5Average Growth Rate % 11.9% 10.6%Max Demand Sent Out MW 168.9 288.9 466.4Average Growth Rate % 11.3% 10.1%Load Factor Sent Out % 59.9 60.4 61.6

Item Unit 2000 2005 2010Energy Demand GWh 776 1310 2008Average Growth Rate % 11.0% 8.9%Peak Demand MW 160 262 379Average Growth Rate % 10.4% 7.7%

Item Unit 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Energy Demand GWh 770 1374 2196 3350 4715Energy Losses GWh 234 343 493 670 832

% 23% 20% 18% 17% 15%Total Energy Demand GWh 1004 1717 2689 4020 5547Average Growth Rate % 11.3% 9.4% 8.4% 6.7%Peak Demand MW 206 340 512 765 1055Average Growth Rate % 10.5% 8.5% 8.4% 6.6%Load Factor % 55.7 57.6 60 60 60

Item Unit 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020Energy Demand GWh 770 1302 1997 2945 3975Energy Losses GWh 234 326 448 589 701

% 23% 20% 18% 17% 15%Total Energy Demand GWh 1004 1628 2445 3534 4676Average Growth Rate % 10.1% 8.5% 7.6% 5.8%Peak Demand MW 206 322 465 672 890Average Growth Rate % 9.3% 7.6% 7.6% 5.8%Load Factor % 55.7 57.6 60 60 60


Summary of Electricity Demand Forecast (High Case), EdL PDP Plan (Source: EdL Power Development Plan PDP 2002-12, July 2003)

1.2 Population and Economic Data

The source of population and economic data for the JICA study included the following

• Population Census 1995 for all villages • Population Census 1995, April 1997 – State Planning Committee • The Households of Lao PDR – Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey

(LECS) 1997/98, December 1999 – State Planning Committee • Basic Statistics of the Lao PDR 1997-2000, State Planning Committee

1.3 Population Forecast

The population growth rate was estimated as 2.6% for the whole country from the Population Census 1995. This growth rate is forecast to decline. The Households of Lao PDR – gave two alternatives for population growth as follows:

The report stated that the population projection stated in Alternative 2 is more likely. It should be noted that the above population growth rate and numbers were taken directly from Tables 5.3.5 and 5.3.6 on page V-6 of the JICA report and do not conform to a simple compound growth formula. There could be a discrepancy caused by either a data entry error, a transcription error or a rounding error. Alternatively, the growth formula used was not a simple compound growth formula. To resolve the apparent discrepancy, the original data in the LECS survey should be used.

Item Unit 2002 2005 2010 2015 2020Energy Consumption GWh 968.797 1839.3 2775.9 3716.8 4834.2Average Growth Rate % 24% 9% 6% 5%Peak Load MW 204.7 367.7 542.8 727.9 948.8Average Growth Rate % 22% 8% 6% 5%Load Factor % 55.3 56.6 60 60 60

Year Alternative 1 Growth % Alternative 2 Growth %1995 4600000 46000002000 5200000 2.5% 5100000 2.4%2005 5900000 2.5% 5800000 2.3%2010 6800000 2.5% 6400000 2.1%2015 7700000 2.5% 7100000 1.9%2020 8700000 2.5% 7700000 1.7%


1.4 Household and Village Forecast

The number of households is estimated for the period 2000 to 2020 using the following procedures.

a) The average number of persons per household is calculated for each

district based on the population and household data from the population census 1995. It is assumed that the average number of persons per household will remain constant during the study period for each district.

b) The number of households for each district is calculated from the estimated

population of the district and the average number of persons per household obtained from a) above

c) The estimated number of households in each district is further divided into

urban and rural areas for the study period, using the same ratio of urban and rural households noted in the 1995 census.

d) The estimated number of households in rural areas is divided into a further

two categories, i.e. i) rural with road access and ii) rural without road access. Therefore the total number of households is divided into a total of three categories I) urban, ii) rural with road access and iii) rural without road access, for each district throughout the period 2000 to 2020.

e) The number of villages in each district as reported in the population census

1995 was assumed to remain unchanged for the study period.

1.5 Number of Households to be Electrified

The estimate of the number of households to be electrified derives from the Socio-economic Development Strategy, March 2001 that targets an electrification rate of 90% by the year 2020, i.e. 90% of all households in the country will be supplied on a continuous basis from the national grid, from regional or municipal grids, or from independent electricity sources.

The following table details the village and household electrification targets to comply with the 90% target in 2020. The interim targets in 2010 were estimated from MIH/EDL’s electrification program

1.6 Average Energy Consumption per Household

The average energy consumption per household used in the JICA forecast was estimated by considering energy consumption data from three sources

a) The ADB Power Sector Strategy Study (Final Draft Report, March 2001)

Year Villages Household1999 19% 34%2010 43% 55%2020 80% 90%


b) The ADB Northern Area Rural Power Distribution Project (Final Draft Report, March 2001)

c) EdL household energy sales data for 1999

The following table outlines the average energy consumption per household:

To further review the energy consumption figures used in the JICA report for reasonableness, Meritec analysed village sales data in Khammuane Province (Central 2) for 6 newly electrified villages with road access. The average monthly energy consumption per household per month (January 2003 to July 2003) was 64 kWh or 766 kWh per year. The average energy consumption data used in the JICA forecast is therefore taken as being reasonable.

1.7 Non Residential Energy Consumption by Village

Estimates for non-residential energy consumption were derived from the ADB Northern Area Power Sector Strategy Study (Final Draft Report, March 2001). In this report villages are classified into four categories, district centre, near district centre, on road and remote. The commercial and industrial loads were estimated from the assumed commercial and industrial facilities for each type of village taking into account the nature and characteristics of each village.

Region Urban and rural Rural with road access without road acess

(kWh/year) (kWh/year)Northern 600 75Central 1(except Vientiane M.) 900 100Vientiane Muncipality 1500 100Central 2 695 100Southern 720 75Annual increase, newly electrified 3% 3%Annual increase, already electrified 5% 5%


The estimated non-residential energy consumption for each type of village as shown in the above table was applied to villages that will be electrified during the forecast period.

1.8 Non Residential Energy Consumption Point Loads

The non-residential energy consumption for large one-off loads were quantified separately in the JICA forecast. A large quantity of electric powered pumps for irrigation was installed during the National Irrigation Pump Management Project (NIMP). The non residential energy consumption for the NIMP is included in the load forecast for each Province under the category agricultural energy consumption

The non-residential energy consumption for particular loads is also separately detailed by Province as outlined in the following table:

Parameters District Centre Near On Road RemoteDistrict Centre

Commercial Loads (kW per village)Government 10.0 - - - Hospital 15.0 - - - Clinic - 2.0 2.0 - Telecommunications 5.0 - - - Senior School 3.0 - - - Junior School 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 Market 6.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Hotels 50.0 - - - Piped Water 10.0 - - - Community Water - 1.5 1.5 1.5 Annual growth rate 3% 3% 3% 3%Load factor 0.75 0.7 0.6 0.6Industrial Loads (kW per village)Saw Mill, Garments etc. 20.0 - - - Other Industrial 50.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 Annual growth rate 3% 3% 3% 3%Industrial Load Factor 0.35 0.35 0.35 0.35Total Energy (MWh) 878.2 61.3 48.6 26.7

No. Province District Descriptions Load (MW)1 Khammuane Thakhek Cement Factory 202 Khammuane Thkhek Rock Crusher 53 Khammuane Thakhek Gypsum and Lead Mine 54 Khammuane Mahaxay Plywood factory 45 Khammuane Xaybuathong Industrial Zone 106 Savanakhet Khanthabouly Industrial Zone 40

(20 MW to 2020)7 Savannakhet Xepon Gold Mining 20

(30 MW to 2020)8 Champasack Pakse Free Trade Zone 109 Vientiane Vangvieng Cement Factory 10


We note that although the Xepon copper gold mine electro winning process was allowed for in the JICA study main report it was not subsequently allowed for in the load forecast model. The load has subsequently been increased from 30 MW to 40 MW with a load factor of 0.8 as opposed to the load factor of 0.35 previously assumed.

1.9 Non Residential Elasticity of Demand

The non-residential elasticity of demand establishes the relationship between GDP Growth and non residential energy demand. The JICA study took EdL’s statistics for energy consumption for non residential demand expressed in seven tariff categories and rearranged the categories to correlate with the four recorded GDP categories. The four GDP categories are i) industry ii) agriculture, iii) commercial & service and, iv) residential. The relationship between GDP growth rate and energy consumption (elasticity of demand) was calculated for the industry sector and commercial and service sector. The elasticity of demand was considered separately for a) Vientiane Municipality and b) The whole of the country. This method was not applied to the agricultural and residential sectors, energy growth in these sectors is discussed elsewhere. The following table details the elasticity of demand for the industrial sector and the commercial and service sector. These elasticity figures are based on historical data (1992 to 2000).

The following table details the GDP growth forecast for 2000 to 2020 and is based on the Socio-Economic Development Strategy of the Government of Lao.

Multiplying the elasticity of demand figures by the forecast GDP figures, gives the estimated growth rates for the industrial and the commercial/service sectors.

Whole Country Vientiane MunicipalityIndustrial Sector 1.5 1Commercial and Services Sector 1.2 0.9

2000 to 2005 2005 to 2010 2010 to 2020GDP Total 6.5 6.0 5.0GDP Industry Sector 8.5 8.0 6.5GDP Service Sector 7.0 6.5 5.5

2000 to 2005 2005 to 2010 2010 to 2020Whole Country(1) Industrial Sector 12.75 12.00 9.75(2) Commercial & Service Sector 8.40 7.80 6.60Vientiane Municpality(1) Industrial Sector 8.50 8.00 6.50(2) Commercial & Service Sector 6.30 5.90 5.00


1.10 System Losses

The system losses reduced gradually from 35% in 1994 to 24% in 1999. The system loss figures used in the load forecast are based on further reducing system losses to 20% in 2005 and 15% in 2020. The loss targets were applied in the same manner to all provinces.

The system losses were further broken down as follows:

a) 5% Losses in transmission lines and substations b) 17% distribution system losses, reducing to 10% in 2020.

1.11 Load Factor The load factors used were estimated as follows

a) Year 2000, the load factor was based on actual data b) Year 2010 a target of 60% load factor was set c) Year 2020, the load factor will remain constant at 60% from 2010 to 2020

1.12 High, Low and Base Case Assumptions The assumptions that were varied from the base case to arrive at the high and low case demand forecasts were:

a) Residential Demand – The annual rate of residential energy consumption

for customers, already connected to the EdL Grid in the year 2000 were varied as follows: • High Case 6% • Base Case 5% • Low Case 4% The average energy consumption for newly electrified households remained the same for the high, low and base case

b) Industrial and Commercial Demand – The growth rate in GDP was varied by 0.5% above and below the base case as follows:

2000 to 2005 2005 to 2010 2010 to 2020Base Case 6.5 6.0 5.0High Case 7.0 6.5 5.5Low Case 6.0 5.5 4.5


2. SUMMARY OF EDL METHODOLOGY

2.1 Background The following commentary on the EdL methodology for the power demand forecast is based on a review of the following documents and supporting spreadsheets: • The EdL Power Development Plan (PDP 2002–20012), Updated Schedule

of Committed Projects, July 2003, System Planning Office, Development Division, Electricite du Laos;

• The Electricity Demand Forecast – Lao PDR, DRAFT, October 2003,

System Planning Office, Development Division, Electricite du Laos. As outlined in the preamble to the EdL Electricity Demand Forecast, the methodology used by the System Planning Office of EdL is very similar to the methodology used in the document, Study of the Master Plan of the Transmission Line and Substation System in Lao PDR, Final Report, September 2002, (also referred to as the “JICA Report”) As the EdL power demand forecast methodology is similar to the JICA methodology, we comment briefly as follows: .

2.2 Population and Economic Data

The source of population and economic data for the EdL forecast is same as that used in the JICA Report.

2.3 Population Forecast

The population growth projection for the EdL forecast is the same as that used in the JICA Report.

2.4 Household and Village Forecast

The household and village growth projection for the EdL forecast is the same as that used in the JICA Report.

2.5 Number of Households to be Electrified The electrification ratios assumed by EdL for 2002 to 2020 differ. The EdL forecast also outlines a high, medium and low scenario for electrification ratio. We comment on the electrification ratio assumptions in greater detail below.


2.6 Average Energy Consumption per Household The average energy consumption per household used in the EdL forecast varies slightly from the JICA study. The consumption figures used in kWh/year are similar, however the EdL forecast assumes the average energy consumption per household increases at 5% per year whereas the JICA Report assumes 3% growth. This can partially be explained by the EdL study being a high case growth scenario whereas the data in the JICA Report reflects a base (or medium) case growth scenario.

2.7 Non Residential Energy Consumption by Village

Estimates for non residential energy consumption were derived from the ADB Northern Area Power Sector Strategy Study (Final Draft Report, March 2001) by EdL and by JICA. EdL assume a different annual growth rate (EdL 4%, JICA 3%).

2.8 Non-Residential Energy Consumption Point Loads The non-residential energy point loads assumed by the EdL and JICA Demand forecasts are similar in respect of a) the agricultural sector and b) particular projects.

2.9 Non-Residential Elasticity of Demand The non-residential elasticity of demand for the a) Industrial sector and b) the commercial and services sector use the same underlying GDP data. However the estimated growth rates (derived in part from the GDP data) differs. This can be partially explained by different scenario assumptions, it also appears that the Vientiane Municipality growth rates have been revised upwards in the EdL forecast, this may be as a result of new data.

2.10 System Losses

The system losses assumed are the same in the EdL and JICA load forecasts.

2.11 Load Factor The load factors used were the same in the EdL and JICA load forecasts


ANNEX 8.2

Demand Forecast

The attached print outs show the demand forecast for each Province consolidated by the following subtotals: Northern Grid, N Central Grid , C1 Central Grid, C2 (Includes Central 2.1 Khammouane and Central 2.2 Savannakhet) Southern Grid, S The total of the above grids are further consolidated in the main text and include coincidence factors for the year in which the isolated grids are connected

ANNEX 8.2

PSDP LOAD FORECAST

ANNEX 8.3

COMPARISON OF DEMAND FORECASTS

ANNEX 8.4

SPREADSHEETS

ANNEX 9

TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION DEVELOPMENT COSTS

Documents

Power System Development Plan for Lao PDR - World …siteresources.worldbank.org/INTLAOPRD/491761-1094074854903/20252473...Power System Development Plan August 2004 ... CCGT Combined