Peak Car?

Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH

Source: OECD International Transport Forum, Trends in the transport sector 2012

Forecasting in 1997

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Billion car km in Sweden per year

National travel survey

SIKA annual report

GDP index, fixed prices

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP

?

Forecasting in 1997

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Billion car km in Sweden per year

SIKA forecast, based on 1997 dataNational travel surveySIKA annual reportGDP index, fixed prices

+ 33% until 2010

Economic growth-> higher incomes-> more cars-> more and longer trips ->more km

Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

Billion car km in Sweden per year

SIKA forecast, based on 1997 dataNational travel surveyBilprovningen SIKA annual reportGDP index, fixed prices

Today’s data

Souces: RVU/RES Sweden, SIKA Transportarbete 1950-2012, SCB for GDP,PERSONTRANSPORTERNAS UTVECKLING TILL 2010 reported by SIKA 2001, Trafikanalys körsträckor 1999-2012

Why is it happening?

Lifestyles

Investments and Policy

Technology

Demography Urbanization

Economy

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, daily personal travel survey

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden

We keep having cars

…but we drive them somewhat less

Source: Trafikanalys, based on bilprovningensource: Trafikanalys, Bilprovningen and population counts from SCB

Single man student

no childrenage 20

city apartment in 2012

Who drives how much compared to him?

+-

Souce: RVU/RES Sweden, dailly personal travel survey, tobit regression coefficients for the car driver km, no interaction effects included

effects significant at 95% +

Urbanization reduces national car km per person

• Accept uncertainty, prioritize flexible options• Prepare for change in tax intakes / financing• Public transit gains importance

• If car use declines, design for car-free access • If car use increases, manage demand

• Policy effect / potential to steer future is greater than assumed

Policy implications

Peak Car?

Anne Bastian, CTS/KTH