Peri Urban Food System

BUILDING URBAN FOOD RESILIENCE:

Assessing the Peri Urban Food System in Kathmandu

Building Urban Food Resilience: Assessing the Peri Urban Food

System in Kathmandu

Ajaya Dixit, Minakshi Rokka Chettri, Kanchan Mani Dixit, Rabi Wenju, Mela Aryal, Urmila Dongol, Deep Raj Rai

Kamal Thapa and Madhav Devkota

Published in August 2008 by Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-Nepal) GPO Box 3971, Kathmandu, Nepal for START WashingtonTel: 977-1-4440854, 4426728; E-mail: [email protected]; Web: www.isetnepal.org.np

Citation: Dixit et. al., 2012: Building Urban Food Resilience: Assessing the Peri-Urban Food System in Kathmandu Nepal, Institute for Social and Environmental Transition-Nepal (ISET-N), Kathmandu, Nepal.

Layout design: Format Graphic Studio, Naxal Kathmandu Cover Photo: Shree Shakuntala Neupane: Vegetable Market in Kathmandu, Nepal.

Rapid urbanisation is an ongoing process in developing countries. People migrate from rural to urban areas in search of better education, health care, housing, sanitation and employment opportunities. Kathmandu city, capital of Nepal is following a similar trend of urbanisation. Kathmandu witnessed the transformation after the completion of Tribhuvan Highway in the early 1960s that connected the capital city with other regions of Nepal. The transitional region between rural and urban with mixed economy is conceived as a peri-urban region where agriculture is converted into built up area. In the past, agricultural production from urban and peri-urban areas fulfilled vegetable and cereal requirements of people residing in the municipalities of Kathmandu Valley. Now however, the production is unable to meet the increasing demand. This study was carried out to explore the linkages between peri-urban agriculture, food system and climate change. Four Village Development Committees (VDCs) and two municipalities located in periphery of Kathmandu Valley were selected for the study. The status of systems such as drinking water, food, communication and transportation were assessed. Series of Shared Learning Dialogues with teachers, local farmers, poultry farmers, market representatives, middlemen and municipality/VDC representatives was conducted. Haphazard use of fertilisers and pesticides, poor access to land and water, untreated industrial and domestic wastewater used for irrigation is some of the environmental challenges faced by farmers. Farmers are vulnerable and marginalised by the government; they do not receive subsidised hybrid seeds, fertilisers and even energy for irrigation. They do not have access to market, only few seed banks are available and they have no access to cold storage facilities. Moreover, expensive inputs discourage them from investing in agriculture while the younger generation is not interested in farming. Farmers receive less profit because middlemen are involved. Political instability, poor governance and absence of policy add additional stress on urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA). In addition, erratic rainfall, rise in temperature and other hazards are making UPA more vulnerable.

Executive summary

4 PERI URBAN FOOD SYSTEM

5PERI URBAN FOOD SYSTEM

Introduction 7

Cities and peri-urbanisation: A 21st-century phenomenon 8

The systemic perspective 10

The Kathmandu Valley 13

Physical and climatic characteristics 13

Socio-economic characteristics 14

Kathmandu in Transformation 17

Population growth 17

Drivers of migration 18

Land-use changes and natural resource exploitation 19

Pollution and waste 21

Food and fuel prices 23

Impact on UPA 23

UPA assessment 23

Objectives 23

Methodology 24

Food systems 24

Agricultural context 26

Peri-urban agriculture 27

Peri-urban case study sites 31

Climate change scenarios 36

Assessing vulnerability: Urban poverty and marginalisation 39

Lessons from past signature events 43

Policy Instruments 49

Risks, challenges and opportunities 51

Key Findings 51

References 56

Contents


Introduction

According to State of Cities (2010), by 2030 there will be more people living in urban than in rural areas in all developing regions, including Asia and Africa, and the prosperity gap will be so immense that the rich will live in well-serviced neighborhoods, gated communities and well-built formal settlements, whereas the poor will be confined to inner-city or peri-urban informal settlements and slums (p. viii). In fact, a characteristic feature of this more urbanised world will be substantial social disparities and inequalities in income, opportunities, health, and education. The extant social divide will widen, and poverty and hunger will be widespread, leaving the 780 million people who are already chronically undernourished (Fischer et al., 2002) in a direr state. The poor lack tangible assets and access to basic needs such as food, education, clean water, health care, secure shelter, food security (UNDP, 2007), and often face political and social discrimination (Fischer et al., 2002). Their poverty and marginalisation increase the risks they face in the face of climate and other changes.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states in its fourth assessment that average global temperatures are likely to increase 1.8-4C by the end of this century (IPCC, 2007), but if the current trend of greenhouse gas emissions continues this may be an overly optimistic estimate. Warming temperatures are likely to exacerbate extreme climatic hazards and increase climatic uncertainty and variability. The knock-on effects of global warming, including changes in water availability and an increase in the incidence of vector-borne disease, will alter crop productivity and threaten livestock and even human health. The attendant increase in natural disasters will strain social relationships and put pressure on existing institutions. Nepal is not immune to these changes: its average temperatures are rising and will likely continue to do so, and precipitation will likely be more uncertain and extreme events, more frequent (NCVST, 2009).

Will cities be adequately armed to adapt to the potential devastation that climate change will wreak? What will happen to the urban poor, who already struggle to feed themselves as disasters severely impede urban food supply and distribution? History offers little encouragement. Extreme events such as Superstorm Sandy and Hurricane Katrina devastated New York City and New Orleans respectively and the oft-unnamed and soon-forgotten tropical cyclones and inland floods regularly ravage coastal cities in South and Southeast Asia and riparian cities in the Ganga and Indus river basins result in huge losses of life and property and leave urban residents hungry and miserable. What will a future with more events such as these hold for the vulnerable?


Even inland cities such as Kathmandu, Nepal, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and La Paz, Bolivia, none of which are directly impacted by hurricanes or rising sea levels, are likely to be impacted by climate albeit in different ways. All cities depend on a wide variety of inter-connected systems beyond their physical boundaries in order to meet the food needs of their residents. Food stocks produced elsewhere are transported to cities using trucks, trains, ships and even aircrafts and stored in urban warehouses and godowns. Food is subsequently supplied to marketplaces, where it is purchased and then brought to peoples homes for further storage and consumption. Unconsumed food is disposed. These food system processes depend on a variety of systems, including transportation, storage, energy, market, banking and communication. Climate change will affect not only the production of crops, but will also affect transportation systems and distribution of food when floods and landslides occur. Because growing populations stress extant infrastructures, rapid urbanisation is another key source of vulnerabilities for urban food systems.

This report examines the vulnerability of Kathmandu Valleys food system to climate change by using urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) as its entry point. It examines both the role that systems as a whole play and the linkages among various systemic components. Its focus on systems is appropriate because over the past two decades Kathmandu has become increasingly reliant on external systems, as while in-situ food production has decreased drastically the demand for food has increased multifold. The focus on climate change scenario is appropriate as the one developed specifically for Nepals central region suggests that the future spells uncertainty, if not actual stymies, to both food production and food supply and acquisition processes. The report also considers the scale of urban poverty as it threatens to exacerbate the effects of both rising external food needs and climate change.

After describing the nature of peri-urban areas and the relevance of a systemic perspective, this report describes the physical, socioeconomic and environmental features of Kathmandu Valley and the change processes underway there. It then describes its methodology and case studies as well as the valleys food system and UPA. The next section focuses on the valleys climate change scenario and high rates of poverty as factors likely to increase food system vulnerabilities. Finally, after summarising the ways UPA is being rendered vulnerable, the report concludes with a set of recommendations to build the resilience of Kathmandu Valleys food system.

Cities and peri-urbanisation: A 21st-century phenomenon

As the next two decades sees Homo sapiens become Homo sapiens urbanus the 21st century will be an urban century (State of Cities, 2010). Cities offer promise and problems. For residents, urban neighbourhoods, city centers, and suburban and peri-urban areas offer opportunities to share spaces, partake in public and private activities, and exercise both duties and rights (State of Cities, 2010). For city authorities, the influx of people creates the headache of stretching inadequate services and addressing the complications posed by the linkages between city and regional and global systems. Maintaining a food basket sufficient to feed all residents is one challenge of particular concern, especially as climate change introduces new sources of vulnerabilities and urban poverty rises. Building the resilience of increasingly threatened food


systems requires an in-depth understanding of the dynamics of interdependence among food systems, climate change, and technological and economic globalisation (DST, 2009).

Many cities in developing countries are complex socio-ecological systems where demographic and social changes are occurring at a fast pace. As rural dwellers continuously migrate to cities, cities increasingly encroach on adjoining peri-urban regions that lack basic systems such as drinking water supply and waste management. The over-stretching of city infrastructures leads to a poor quality of life and limits opportunities for secure employment, especially among the urban poor. And increasingly, the poor will be found in cities, not, as historically was the case, in the countryside: by 2020, about 85% of the poor in Africa and 40-45% of the poor in Asia will live in urban areas (RUAF, n.d.). In fact, most rapidly urbanising countries are also among the poorest in the world (Moench et al., 2011). Besides the challenge of providing employment to the poor, cities face traffic congestion, poor sanitation, pollution, and depletion of natural resources base.

Unplanned urbanisation affects more than just cities: encroaching upon prime agricultural land, forests, and wetlands, interfering with their traditional provision of services to urban residents, disorderedly urban growth also converts peri-urban regions into haphazard settlements. In fact, the very nature of these regions, which interactively juxtapose urban and rural activities,


brings about rapid and frequent changes in landscape features (Douglas, 2006). More particularly, human activities in peri-urban regions which are fuelled by market-related processes result in the unregulated use of agricultural and natural resource systems (Simon et al., 2006) and thereby increase environmental degradation, social stress, and land, water and air pollution.

The natural and physical systems, land uses, and social and economic characteristics of peri-urban regions of Asia are transforming rapidly and constantly, blurring the distinction between rural and urban. Once upon a time, household assets like televisions, motorcycles, and mobile phones were the hallmark of urban households; today, residents in peri-urban and even wholly rural regions also boast those same assets. The Bhasa Indonesian term desakota, or city-village, nicely captures the blending of rural and urban characteristics. A desakota is a region with a mixed economy (McGee, 1991) where the observed stresses on ecosystems are more complex and environmentally unstable than they are in either urban or rural settings (McGranahan et al., 2004).

Peri-urban regions support crucial economic activities, including highly beneficial systems of UPA. In South Asia alone, an estimated 11 million urban residents engage in UPA, thereby contributing to urban food baskets (Van Veenhuizen and Danso, 2007), and bridging the gap between the demand and supply of food (Umoh, 2006). By engaging in UPA, urban dwellers can meet some of their basic food needs and reduce their spending on food. UPA also improves the quality of the diet of the urban poor and increases their incomes (Gundel, 2006). In fact, it is an important source of income generation for women and unemployed youth. Moreover, by recycling biodegradable urban waste to be used as fertiliser, UPA helps manage waste (Cofie et al., 2006; Midmore & Jansen, 2003), and by protecting the environment, it makes urban and peri-urban areas more pleasant places to live in (Yves, 2004). Additional benefits of UPA include the management of green space and biodiversity and the modulation of a citys microclimate (Konijnendijk, Gauthier & van Veenhuizen, 2004; Midmore & Jansen, 2003). Finally, the production of fresh food close to the ultimate consumers minimises the energy required to transport and store food and engage in post-harvest activities, thereby mitigating greenhouse gas emissions, reducing a citys carbon footprint, and promoting climate change adaptation.

The systemic perspective

UPA is embedded in large ongoing processes of systemic change, including globalisation and the ever-increasing penetration of transportation and communication systems. Its interdependence is complicated by the fact that in peri-urban regions, relationships among demographic, socio-economic and ecological systems change rapidly, thereby causing the nature and functioning of ecosystems and the services they provide both within those regions themselves and to adjacent cities to also be in constant flux. For these reasons, only an examination from a systemic perspective can provide an understanding of the opportunities and hinderances that face UPA in its efforts to respond effectively to the new vulnerabilities that global climate change, as well as other changes, are likely to expose it to (Figure 1). Armed with this information, stakeholders can build the adaptive capacity of those who practice UPA and, more broadly, all those urban dwellers most vulnerable to climate change.


TABLE 1Core, secondary and tertiary systems

System Scale ElementsCore Energy, drinking water, land, forest, food, ecosystem services Secondary Transport and mobility, communications, livelihood (agriculture, water, forestry, shelter) Tertiary Markets, financial services, health system, education, social networks, non-farm production systems

Source: Dixit et al., 2011

FIGURE 2Interactions and climate change vulnerability

Source: Moench et al. (2012) To summarise, for assessing food system vulnerability the four interactive element used in this study are as follows.

SYSTEMS

AGENTS

CLIMATE CHANGE

Impacts of Negative Climate

Change on Systems

Impacts of Negative

Climate Impacts on

Marginal Agents

Impacts of Fragile Systems on Marginal Agents

Impacts of Negative Climate

Change on Fragile Systems & Marginal

Agents

marginalized low capacity agents

positive

resilientnegativefragile

AGENTS

CLIMATE CHANGE

SYSTEMS

Another reason that a systemic approach is essential is the fact that climate change is only one factor among the many that influence food systems. Since natural changes in biophysical systems are broadly linked with human-induced changes such as deforestation, urbanisation and waste production, the impact that climate change will have on any given food system will be mediated by the availability of core, secondary, and tertiary systems (Table 1) and the roles that these systems play. A systemic view provides insight into these linkages and thereby helps in assessing vulnerabilities to climate change and developing strategies to build resilience and adaptive capacity. In fact, the relative robustness or fragility of systems is one of four key determinants of vulnerability as conceived by this study (Figure 2). The other three are social marginality, exposure, and institutional constraints (Moench et al., 2011: Moench & Dixit, forthcoming). If UPA in Kathmandu Valley is to be maintained, or even extended, it must address not just climate change but also weak systemic elements.

Core systems are those that are basic to survival; without their services, no population can build its adaptive capacity and will remain forever vulnerable. Secondary and tertiary systems, in turn, function as gateways that enable

Strategy to build adaptive capacity

Environmental, climatic and socioeconomic

change

Agents, institutions and policies

Urban and peri-urban agriculture systemExtent of marginality

FIGURE 1Conceptual framework


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individuals, households, communities and entire populations to use the services available from core systems to develop strategies to respond to various stresses, including those associated with climate change. In other words, robust systems boost adaptive capacity. Thus it follows that communities, like the urban poor, which have no access to systems or can access only fragile ones are likely to be most affected by climate change, as they will have little systemic support and thereby little capacity to adapt. The urban poor may not be the most vulnerable population, however. Vulnerability to climate change (or food insecurity or other risk) is greatest when all four components of vulnerability intersect, that is, when a marginalised population with little institutional support is served by fragile systems if any at all and is highly exposed to the negative impacts of climate change (or food insecurity or other risk).

The Kathmandu Valley

Kathmandu Valley, where Nepals capital lies, is one urban area where rapid change processes are underway and which faces challenges to its food system.

Physical and climatic characteristicsThe valley is situated in the Mahabharat Range at an altitude of 1300 m amsl. Its 665 km2 encompass 85% of Kathmandu District, 50% of Lalitpur District and all of Bhaktapur District (Figures 3a, 3b and 3c).

Kathmandu Valley is located between 27 32 13-27 49 10 N and 85 11 31-85 31 38 E. Its geology is mixedfluvo-lacustrine deposits of clay and sand filled with alluvium soil dominate the central part while the southern area is composed of reddish sandstone shale overlain by grey and purple shale and the western and eastern ranges contain a sequence of phyllites, limestones and quartzites (HMG, 1969). The valleys sub-tropical, temperate, and cool-temperate climatic zones have four distinct seasons: pre-monsoon, monsoon, post-monsoon and winter. The minimum and maximum temperatures of the valley are -3C and 35.6C respectively (ICIMOD, MoEST, & UNEP, 2007) (see Figure 4). More than 90% of the valleys total rainfall occurs during the four months of the monsoon, which begins mid-June. The amount of rainfall varies year to year, but on average, the valley receives 1,600 mm of rainfall annually. Differences in elevation create orographic effects, which cause spatial variations in rainfall: the valley floor receives about 1,400 mm; the adjoining hills, more than 2,000 mm (Figure 5).

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FIGURE 4Monthly temperature in Kathmandu


Monsoon rains supplement the flows of the valleys main river, Bagmati, which originates in the Shivapuri Mountains north of Kathmandu before being joined by its tributaries, the Nakhu, Kodku, Godavari, Balkhu, Bishnumati, Dhobi, Manohara, Hanumante, and Manamati rivers. It then flows out of the valley through the Mahabharat range at Katuwaldaha to the south before joining the Koshi River in Bihar (Figures 6a and 6b). The Bagmatis upper catchment constitutes 15% of the total area of the Bagmati basin in Nepal (HMG, 1994). At Chovar, a few kilometers upstream of Katuwaldaha, the rivers minimum flow occurs in April/May; discharge then begins to rise with the arrival of the monsoon rains mid-June and reaches peak flow in July or August before falling again in the post-monsoon season. The average maximum monthly discharge of 195 m3/s occurs in July, while the minimum monthly average flow of 0.51 m3/s occurs in April (HMG, 1994).

Socio-economic characteristicsThe three districts of Kathmandu Valley encompass a total of 150 village development committees (VDCs) and five municipalitiesKathmandu Metropolitan City,

Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan City, and Bhaktapur, Kirtipur, and Madhyapur Thimi municipalities. The valleys total population is about 1,426,641 residing in 366,255 households, with an average family size of four (CBS, 2011). The sex ratio is approximately 1:1 (CBS, 2011). Though Newars are the original settlers, high rates of immigration, which began as far back as 1736, when King Prithvi Narayan Shah unified Nepals many kingdoms, have resulted in the considerable social diversity of today (Subedi, 2010).

The valleys economy is based primarily on trade, commerce, and industry and the service sectors of education, health, transport, hospitality, and tourism. Kathmandu hosts Nepals only international airport, which serves as the entry point for the majority of touriststhree-quarters of the total 610,000 tourists who visited Nepal in 2011 (Nepal Beyond, 2011). The valley has better health services than other parts of Nepal and Kathmandu has a greater variety of services than Lalitpur and Bhaktapur. The valley is home to 365 higher secondary schools, 1,170 secondary schools, 1,507 lower secondary and 2076 primary schools (CBS, 2012). About 34% of all households, ranging from 50% in Lalitpur to 13% in Kirtipur, engage in small-scale nonfarming activities (CBS, 2001). Nearly 50% of households in Kirtipur and Kathmandu municipalities engage in trade and business activities (CBS, 2001), while about 36% engage in agriculture and forestry. The valleys main crops are paddy and maize, but millet, wheat, barley, lentils, soybeans, peas, black gram, pulses, potatoes, and oilseeds are also grown. Households also raise livestock, whose milk and meat they sell in major urban markets.

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Other economic activities see less participation: just 17% of the population engages in manufacturing, 16% in commerce, 4% in construction, and 3% in transportation or communication. The economically active age cohort (15-44 years) constitutes about 56% of the population in Kathmandu Valley (CBS, 2001). In addition to carpet and garment industries, the valley is home to several smaller, traditional industries, including textiles, bricks, tiles, pottery, handicrafts, carved wooden furniture, bamboo crafts, leatherwork, herbal medicine, sculpture, and painting. Carpet industries are concentrated in Kathmandu while handicrafts, especially metal crafts, in Lalitpur. The valley is also the centre of trade links with foreign countries. In the fiscal year 2007/08, Nepal exported 65% of its goods to India and the remaining 35% to First World countries such as U.S.A., the U.K., Italy, Germany, Canada, and Japan (Economic Survey, 2008/09). Readymade garments and wool carpets, along with iron and steel products, yarns, and lentils, fall among Nepals top five exports (Khanal, 2011). In the 1990s, when they were first opened, the carpet industry saw a boom so great that farmers sold or rented their farmland to factory owners, and constructed house for labourers. In recent years, however, the number of carpet factories has declined (Department of Industry, 2010) because of their inability to compete in the global market, unscrupulous trading, resource constraints, inefficient management, and environmental problems (Gautam et al., 2008); those that remain, however, consume considerable amounts of water, diverting it from other uses like irrigation, and are major sources of water pollution. Five types of drinking water systemstraditional, piped, groundwater, rainwater harvesting system, and water tankers and bottled waterare found in the valley. The traditional system, though considerably less extensive than it once was, consists of a number of stone waterspouts fed by canals which tap springswhere underground aquifers meet the surfacein the foothills surrounding the valley. According to Dixit (2003), 250 out of the 350 stone waterspouts, about 71%, in Kathmandu and Lalitpur in 2001 supplied water in 2003. In the last decade, however, the number of functional spouts has decreased drastically. The canals once also fed a network of ponds constructed on the outskirts of and within settlements to recharge the underground aquifers that supplied them. When the ruling class began to adopt Western practices and introduce them to the population, it built piped drinking water systems with technology imported from Great Britain. The first was built in the 1890s and many others soon followed. Water demand in Kathmandu Valley is currently about 320 million litres per day (MLD) and supply is a fraction of this, just 86 MLD (27%) in April/May, and 148 MLD (46%) in July/August (Kathmandu Upattayka Khanepani Limited (KUKL), 2009). In the dry season, about 27% of the municipal supply (23 MLD) is met through groundwater extraction (KUKL, 2009b). KUKL serves about 78% of Kathmandus population (ADB & GoN, 2010) though like the rest of the population it also relies on tankers and other sources because supply is so unreliable.

Tankers tap surface and underground sources in peri-urban and rural areas and play a vital role in covering KUKLs deficit. The number of such water tankers has increased significantly in recent yearsfrom 80 in 2000 (Moench and Dixit, 2003) to 750 in 2010 (Shrestha, 2011)and today they meet about 9.1% of the valleys total need (Shrestha, 2011). The private tanker operators, KUKL and other users pump out about 70 ML of groundwater daily from the valleys aquifers


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Together the reduction of river flow due to upstream diversions and the increase in peak flows due to decreased infiltration have altered the characteristics of riverbeds. Since decreased river flow in the dry season facilitates riverbed sand mining, Kathmandu Valley saw a surge in this activity in the mid-1980s. As a result, the valleys riverbeds were deepened, thereby lowering the groundwater table in adjoining fields (Dixit, 1997) and depriving adjacent paddy fields of irrigation water. Then, when rising land prices, fueled in part by the construction of access roads, encouraged farmers to sell land that could not be irrigated, the opportunity to recharge groundwater with water stored in paddy fields was lost. Later, as supplies of sand in riverbeds declined and regulations on riverbed sand mining increased, people turned to haphazard mining from pits along river terraces. Unfortunately, this technique is no more environmentally-friendlythese pits fall within groundwater recharge zones, and their mining is likely to further diminish groundwater storage, landscape degradation, social stress and affect local agriculture.

Kathmandu in Transformation

Since the early 1500s, Kathmandu Valleys fertile soil and a monsoon climate had favoured the growth of an urban social system with agriculture as its mainstay. For over four centuries, valley societys close interdependence with the land endured. Then, in 1950, when the Rana oligarchy was abolished and the country embraced democracy, its economy moved toward the industrial and service sectors and its land-use patterns changed. At the same time, its population kept growing.

Population growthFor years, the population of Kathmandu Valley was stable despite it being a popular pilgrimage site. The early settlers of Kathmandu Valley were fairly homogenous (Liechty, 2003; and Tiwari, 1992) and lived in compact settlements located on spurs and river terraces (Tiwari, 1988). When Nepal was unified in 1734, Kathmandu emerged as the powerful centre of the kingdom (Tiwari, 2001) but because strict migration policies prevented the movement of people to and from the valley (Rademacher, 2008), its growth and the pace of change in general were gradual until 1950, when Kathmandu opened itself not only to the outside world but also to its hinterlands.

Immigration and the pace of change within Kathmandu got a further boost in the 1960s when the Tribhuvan Highway was constructed and linked to the Tarai and onward to India. The later construction of other road networks also boosted communication and increased the availability of infrastructure, goods and services, thereby accelerating urbanisation in Kathmandu and stimulating its spread to the other cities and towns in the valley. Growth received yet another impetus in 1990, when multi-party democracy was re-established and with the enthusiastic election of a new parliament, Kathmandus centralising political and bureaucratic power got a shot in the arm. At present, however, as the new republic decides on its federal structure, there is a strong push for devolution. What that will be, however, is still not clear.

The rate of urbanisation in Kathmandu Valley is high; in fact, it was one of the highest in South Asia throughout the 1990s (UNFPA, 1995). From 1961 to 1971, the population in Kathmandu Valley increased 6% annually, then following a decline in the next decade to 4.2% (a rate still


Box 1: Kathmandu evolving capital

o Located on the trade route between Tibet and India

o Made the political capital following the Gorkha conquest and unification in 1734

o Home to Hindu and Buddhist pilgrimage siteso Avails water and fertile lando Has a comfortable climate o Is a centre of education, air connectivity,

bureaucracy, army, diplomacy and medical services

o Provided a sense of security during the insurgency of 1996-2006

o Is growing increasingly cosmopolitan in feel

high enough to double the population in less than 20 years), it surged to 6.4% between 1981 and 1991 (ICIMOD, MoEST & UNEP, 2007). In contrast, Nepals national urbanisation rate is low by regional standards (WFP & NDRI, 2008), especially in the mountains, where not a single village qualifies as a municipality with a population exceeding 10,000. The result of this change over Nepal expansion of built up area in the valley (Figure 7).

Population growth has disproportionately affected the valley. According to Nepals 2011 census, Nepal has a population of 26,494,504, five times than that in 1911 when the recorded population was 638,749. Nepals annual population growth rate averaged 1.35% from 1991 to 2011. The rate of Kathmandu District was much higher4.76%. The growth rates of Lalitpur and Bhaktapur districts were also very high3.23% and 2.96% respectively (Table 2) and reflect the trends in the Valley. In 1911,

Nepals population density was 38.31 persons/km2, but reached 157 persons/km2 by 2001 and saw a further 15% increase to 180 persons/km2 by 2011. Population density in the three districts of Kathmandu Valley is extremely high, with that of Kathmandu Metropolitan City approaching 20,000 persons/km2 (Table 2). As a result of this increase, the existing infrastructures and services within Kathmandu Valley are inadequate and the wellbeing of valley residents has suffered.

Drivers of migrationBoth in the past and the present, the availability of better education, employment and other opportunities in Kathmandu Valley than in rural hinterlands has been one of the main drivers of migration to the valley. The pull of jobs stems in part from the valleys economic shift, away

Source: Preliminary result of national population census, 2011 (www.cbs.gov.np, www.census.gov.np)

TABLE 2Population and households

Regions Area (Km2) Total Population Census Number of HHs

Average HH Size

Population density km2

Decade change in %2001 2011

Nepal 147,181 23,151,423 26,494,504 5,423,297 4.89 180.01 14.44

Kathmandu district 395 1081845 1,744,240 436,344 4.00 4415.80 61.23

Lalitpur district 385 337785 468,344 109,797 4.27 1216.48 38.65

Bhaktapur 119 225461 304,651 68,636 4.44 2560.09 35.12

Urban Areas

Kathmandu Metropolitan 49.45 671846 975,453 254,292 3.84 19726.05 45.19

Lalitpur Sub-Metropolitan 15.15 162991 220,802 54,581 4.05 14574.39 35.47

Kritipur Municipality 14.76 40835 65,602 19,441 3.37 4444.58 60.65

Bhaktapur Municipality 6.56 72543 81,748 17,639 4.63 12461.59 12.69

Madhypur Thimi Municipality 11.11 47751 83,036 20,302 4.09 7473.99 73.89


from agriculture and small traditional craftsmanship towards services and manufacturing.2 Other factors that influence migration include the high capital flows in the city; the substantial remittances provided by retired Gorkha soldiers and Nepali youths working in India, the Middle East, Korea, Malaysia, and elsewhere; and the stimulus to the valleys real estate sector provided by the easy credit offered by financial institutions to purchase property. In fact, with so much cash and so many people flowing into the valley, the real estate sector saw a huge surge in growth from 2004/05 to 2008/09 (Table 3), and despite a significant slight downturn no doubt connected by the global financial crisis, is likely to see an upsurge as the economy recovers.

Immigrants to Kathmandu can be broadly categorised as three basic types. The first consists of high-income families that buy land and/or homes. The second cannot afford property but is able to rent accommodation. The third, those trying primarily to escape poverty (Lumanti, 2009) and other stresses rather than, like the first two types, trying to improve their standard of living, end up in squatter settlements, deprived of access to basic housing, drinking water and sanitation, health care, and education and very vulnerable to the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Besides poverty, other push factors leading to high rates of migration among Nepals rural residents include low agricultural productivity, lack of local employment, food insecurity, debt (WFP and NDRI, 2008), and disasters. Climate change, too, with its higher temperatures and more uncertain rainfall and extreme events, including floods and droughts (DST, 2008), has also fueled migration, as has the lack of fertilisers and improved seeds. Collectively, these push factors lead to a loss of local rural livelihoods, though it is not easy to identify how many people migrate to Kathmandu exclusively because of various pushes. In fact, in a recent survey of migrants to the valley, 54% and 18% cited family and job opportunities as the reasons they had migrated (NLSS, 2003/2004), both reasons, which are pull, rather than push factors.

Land-use changes and natural resource exploitation Over the last few decades, all type of settlements in Kathmandu Valley have grown both in size and form, expanding the built-up area by a factor of four and shrinking the nonurban area proportionately (Table 4). In 1967, the built-up area comprised just 3% of the total area; in 2000 it was 14%, a gain of over 5,000 ha. Agricultural land was also badly impacted: the proportion of farmland declined 7.4% annually, from 64% in 1984 to less than 42% in 2000. During the same period, the area of non-agricultural land increased from 5.6% to 14.5% (KVTDC, 2002). The expansion of urban areas and the attendant decline in agriculture, forest and shrub areas have

Sectors 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2011/12

Agriculture and 3.0 3.3 4.7 3.4 1.7 0.9 5.8 2.98 4.47forestryConstruction 6.4 2.1 -0.3 2.9 7.7 2.5 5.1 0.99 4.79Real estate, renting -4.9 -4.0 -2.1 10.0 6.3 11.8 10.4 1.93 2.25and business activities

TABLE 3Annual Growth rate in construction and real estate

Source: Economic Survey FY 2011 - 2012 , Ministry of Finance


FIGURE 8Chronology of urbanisation in Kathmandu

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adversely affected food production and the ecological services offered by the natural resource base while at the same time placing stresses on the management of water and waste.

Traditional irrigation canals have in the past and continue to compensate for inadequate rainfall. Across that nation, thousands of large and small farmer-built and managed irrigation systems provide irrigation. About 70 percent land under cultivation has some form of irrigation (Thapa, 2012). In the valley, however, these systems, once common, have gradually become dysfunctional because of poor repair and maintenance, disuse and general degradation. A recent study estimated that the valley has 415 irrigation systems, 51 large, 122 medium and 242 small (Bhattarai, 2011). An earlier estimate was much more conservative: it suggested that 134 irrigation systems served about 7,625 ha in the valley (Dixit et al., 2005). In many places a buffer strip of land is used to capture urban wastewater for use in irrigation, thereby also contributing to keeping rivers clean and recharging groundwater (Dixit & Upadhyaya, 2005).

Though the total agricultural area declined slightly from in the decade between and 1999, from 13,350 ha in 1989 to 12,944, it then increased 9% over the next seven years, perhaps through the conversion of some forest and shrub land, to reach 14,420 ha in 2006. An earlier estimate (oPE, 1999) has suggested that half of the valleys abbal (A-grade) land,3 which in 1999 comprised 43% of the total agricultural land would be converted to urban sprawl by 2010. The continuation of this trend would leave very little agricultural land (Shrestha, 2006). Equally worrisome for UPA is the continuing decline in the areas of open land and water bodies (Bhandari, 2010) as well as the fact that farmers are tempted by profit to sell their rice fields as well as riverbanks and wetlands to developers of housing complexes.

The boom in the valleys construction industry has increased the demand for sand. While in the sixties and seventies, riverbeds provided most of the supply, today pit mines along river terraces do. Since pits are in groundwater recharge zones, mining here affects the groundwater balance, with serious consequences for UPA, drinking water supply and environmental integrity. According to Sayami (2007), 3,102 m of sand is extracted daily in Kathmandu, 1,865 m (60%) from riverbeds and 1237.6 m (40%) from pit reserves, many which are in Rahultar, Jaraku, Paniyatar, Manamaiju, Baluwapati, Baniyatar, Adhikarigau, Aryalgau, Gothatar, Mulpaniand other peri-urban regions (Figure 9).

Pollution and wasteThe valleys difficulty in disposing solid and liquid wastes is another stress caused by the burgeoning population, one which leads to

Year

Type 1967 1978 1991 2000

Built-up 1855 3165 5759 8379

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TABLE 4Built-up and non urban area (Ha) in Kathmandu Valley

Thapa and Murayama, 2008

FIGURE 9Sand Mining sites in Kathmandu

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spikes in fecal coliform counts and the incidence of water-borne diseases such as typhoid, jaundice, and diarrhea during the monsoon season (Dixit and Upadhya, 2005). Given that temperature and recorded cases of typhoid are closely correlated (Dodman, 2009), it is likely that climate change will create more health problems. In addition, the high concentrations of people, traffic, and economic activities contribute to air pollution and its attendant health problems. Indeed, residents

of Kathmandu Valley are almost twice as likely as those outside the valley to contract chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and COPD cases are likely to increase as temperature rises cause temperature inversions and trap yet more pollutants (Dodman, 2009). The fact that most public health establishments focus on curative, not preventive, services and that the quality of preventive services available is poor magnify the problem.

Since the early 1980s the valleys rivers quite literally have been sewers for two reasons. First, the volume of waste has increased tremendously. Second, in the absence of sufficient functional wastewater treatment plants, wastewater is dumped untreated, in rivers. Though this has, in a way, helped farmers who believe that wastewater irrigation increases productivity of potatoes, radishes, cauliflower, and cabbage, and thus practice limited wastewater irrigation (Ruthkowski, 2004; Shukla et al. 2012).

The establishment of numerous kilns in the peri-urban regions as brick factory owners exploit the potential of the valleys fertile topsoil to produce bricks and farmers take advantage of the chance to lease their land during the agricultural off-season has also had negative impacts on UPA. According to data compiled by the Department of Collate and Small Industries, there are 110 brick kilns in the valley, 64 in Bhaktapur, 28 in Lalitpur, and 18 in Kathmandu (Adhikary, 2012), which together use about 80,000 MT of coal and emit 200,000 MT of carbon dioxide every year (Amatya, 2012). Most kilns operate during the dry season, from December to May, whereas in the rainy season the same land is used to grow paddy, which is harvested in October/November. A single brick kiln, on average, removes 1,500 MT of productive topsoil per ropani (0.05 ha) per year, depleting the productivity of the land. Thus, the hundreds of kilns deplete hundreds of hectares of productive farmland. A study in Kathmandu Valley showed that brick making depletes soil of three key minerals necessary for plant growthnitrogen, phosphorous and potassium (Raut, 2003). Since farmers often use the same land where bricks are made agricultural yields continuously decrease until, ultimately farming, becomes unsustainable. Brick kilns, like concrete factories, dont simply pollute; they also use large volumes of water: 208x103 m3 annually in Bhaktapur alone (Sada, 2009). In short, the brick industry poses a considerable threat to the sustainability of UPA.

@ Fawaad Khan


Food and fuel pricesIncreases in food prices also pose a threat to the valleys food system. Local prices will fluctuate as long the valleys food system remains so heavily dependent on regional global systems and markets and myriad variables, including climate change-influenced droughts and extreme events, fuel supplies and prices, and local political turmoil continue to play their hand. In 2011 the prices of vegetables, fruit, sugar, and milk in Nepal increased by 47%, 28%, 23%, and 17% respectively compared to 2010, while the prices of cereal and grain each increased by about 10% (World Bank, 2010), increasingly placing dietary basics out of the reach for the poorest and forcing them to turn to cheaper, but less nutritious, alternatives.

The connection between the valleys food system and fuel prices and dependency is also a growing concern. The number of both two and four-wheel vehicles used within the valley has soared: according to the Department of Transport Management, 1,178,911 vehicles have been registered since 1989/90, and in just in the last five years since 2007 the number of motorcycles have increased by 48% (http://dotm.gov.np/uploads/files/type.pdf). While these vehicles play a pivotal role in transporting food to and from Kathmandu Valley and peri-urban regions as well as further afield, they have also increased Nepals dependence on imported petroleum products, which now constitute about 11% of the total energy consumed in the country (World Bank, 2011). Current demand for petroleum products is about 1.2 MT per annum and is increasing 20% annually (NoC, 2012). The cost of meeting that demand is sizable, according to Nepal Rastra Bank, Nepal spent NPR 76.71 billion on petroleum products in 2010-11, an increase of nearly 44% over the previous year and nearly one-fifth of the countrys total imports and one-third of its imports from India. Along with vehicles, billets and machinery, the petroleum imports accounted for 35% of the total volume of imports and 9.4% of the GDP (World Bank, 2011). The fact that Nepals export earnings meet only one-third of the cost needed to import petroleum products (World Bank, 2011) is another indication of great, even risky, dependency. Impact on UPAAll of the changes documented above reduce or contaminate the resources needed for farming, thereby posing significant risks to UPA in addition to any new sources of vulnerability that climate change may pose.

UPA assessment

ObjectivesThis assessment explores the dynamics of Kathmandu Valleys food system by locating UPA within larger, ongoing change processes. Its objectives are to

Q Explore linkages between UPA and Kathmandu Valleys food system and possible future changes in those linkages

Q Estimate the additional costs and challenges that will be incurred while accessing food in the future

Q Assesses which components of Kathmandu Valleys food system are vulnerable to climate change


MethodologyThe assessment comprised a number of key activities:

Secondary literature was scoped and reviewed.Four VDCsRamkot, Chandeswari, Tokha and Sankhu (see Figure 10)and two municipalitiesKirtipur and Madhaypur Thimiwere purposively selected. All sites are connected to Kathmandu Metropolitan by road and their UPA systems fall within the valleys food system.

The status of key core, secondary, and tertiary systemsenergy, water, land use, mobility, finance and ecologicalin the four VDCs were assessed, as was how the socio-economies of individuals, households and organisations function and how they respond in order to maintain or improve livelihoods. VDC profiles were used to assess the status of systems at ward level and wards were ranked in term vulnerability. Time and resource limitations did not make it possible to assess the two municipalities.

Results from climate scenario studies available for Kathmandu were used to generate a future climate scenario for the four VDCs and Kathmandu Valley. In addition, two past water-induced disastersthe 1993 floods and landslides that affected central Nepal and the 2008 breaching of the Koshi River embankment in eastern Nepalwere considered as examples of the impact disaster can have on food systems.

Interactions with local communities were conducted using the shared learning dialogue (SLD) (Figure 11) approach, which is based on the learning framework proposed by Lewin (1946). In this process, researchers present information and knowledge to local stakeholders while at the same time they derive learning from their experiences. The result is a synthesis of local, experiential and global, scientific knowledge. Municipality and VDC representatives, teachers, farmers, poultry farmers, vegetable sellers, and middlemen participated in these SLDs, as did individuals who work in the vegetable and fruit markets in Kathmandu that function as a meeting place between peri-urban and rural areas.

Food systems

A food system consists of all those dynamic interactions between and within a given bio-geophysical and human environment that result in the production, processing, distribution, preparation, and consumption of food. It also involves activities related to the preparation and consumption of food. Together, these processes contribute to food security, which is defined as the state in which sufficient nutritious and safe food to meet peoples dietary needs and result in a healthy lifestyle is available to people at all times (FAO, 1996). Food security entails more than simply being able to

FIGURE 10Case study VDCs

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access sufficient food; it also incorporates issues like the quality and hygiene of food; consumption patterns; production at the national level; the exchange, processing, packaging, and storing of food; infrastructure; and the functional market value chain from producers to consumers. As it is, Nepal faces myriad challenges in improving the food security of its population and when its food systems experience the inevitable stresses and shocks of the future, whether they stem from climate change or other changes, food security will face increasing new threats.

Obviously, any disruptions to the interactions between and within bio-geophysical and human environments will influence both food system activities and their outcomes and could, depending on their nature, thereby contribute to food insecurity (Ericksen, 2007). It is estimated that global food production will have to increase by about 70% by 2050 in order to feed the additional 2.3 billion people, and tremendous effort will be required to improve the distribution of and access to food (FAO, 2009) and climate change induced such disruptions is likely to worsen insecurities. Increasingly, the urban poor will find themselves food insecure as the quality and quantity of food they can access depends on their incomes and market prices, not how much they can produce, and since the majority of adults and children living in squatter settlements have diseases, it limits their capacity to learn and work (Bryld, 2002).

To what extent will climate change impact Kathmandu Valleys food system? How will the food security of peri-urban and urban residents be affected? Who will be most vulnerable to disruptions in the food system? These are important questions, but ones without clear-cut answers. To make

FIGURE 11: Shared Learning Dialogue Method

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a start in assessing the vulnerability of the valleys food system, this assessment considered all four dimensions of any food system: availability (i.e., production and trade), access to food, the stability of food supplies and food utilisation (Schmidhuber and Tubiello, 2007).

The vulnerability of any given food system to climate change is both a function and an outcome of the intersection of four factors: exposure, systems, marginality and institutions (Dixit and Dixit, 2011). Assessing vulnerability requires applying both scientific and social approaches and employing a number of analytical tools, but it is worth the effort as only when vulnerability has been assessed can it be minimised and adaptive capacity built. The same time, as the resilience of the food system increases, so does its ability to help people overcome food insecurity by taking benefits of a more resilient system.

Agricultural context

The traditional urban and agricultural systems of Kathmandu Valley were influenced by its location along the India-Tibet trade route. In 1831, trade between Nepal and India amounted to about NPR 3 million rupees; 60 years later it exceeded NPR 30 million (Hodson, as cited in Seddon et al, 1979). Some of that trade was in agricultural products. In fact, in the early 1900s, rice accounted for nearly 40% of Nepals exports to India and mustard accounted 20%. Nepal was also heavily dependent on imports from India, with 60% of the total manufactured goods and cotton cloth and yarn other key goods (Seddon et al., 1979). Until the late 1980s, Nepal was a net exporter of food, so food production helped stabilise its macro-level food balance and the countrys economy. Despite the national-level surplus, however, the storage and distribution of food was problematic and many regions in the hills faced food shortages. Since the 1990s, demand has outstripped cereal production and the country has experienced a macro-level food deficit (Dahal and Khanal, 2010). WFP (2011) estimates that about 3.4 million Nepali people are food-insecure due to reduced production, escalating prices and the poor distribution of food.

The fact that agricultural inputs, including seeds to plant, are often not available on time negatively affects production. In addition, dependence on new seed varieties has reduced crop diversity and pushed out traditional seed varieties as well as increased the usage of chemical fertilisers and pesticides. Particularly, widespread use of chemical fertilisers began in the early 1980s as vegetable production began to be commercialised (Pokharel & Panta, 2008) and pesticide usage grew as infestations by pests and diseases did. In 2007, almost 348 MT of pesticides were imported to Nepal, 250% more than in 2006 (Pesticide Registration and Management Division, 2009). Kathmandu Valley alone uses more agrochemicals than the entire hill and mid-hill regions (Bhatta and Werner, 2011).

Soon the increased application of chemical fertilisers began affecting soil fertility and productivity and mono crop cultivation, began to dominate. As land-use changes continued abated, farmers ultimately reached a turning point and found they could no longer fulfill the needs of the burgeoning population. For example in 2001, the 153,356 MT of cereals (Figures 9a, 9b, and 9c), 2,279 MT of pulses, 57,350 t of cash crops and 1,488 MT of vegetables produced in Kathmandu,


Bhaktapur and Lalitpur but were not enough to meet food needs of the valleys 1 million people. The shortfall has since widened because a portion of the cereal is also used to feed livestock of the valley. Today the valley is a net importer of food.

Kathmandu Valleys agriculture reflects the food situation of other districts (Figure 12). On a national scale, not only is cereal production insufficient but vegetable production is also insufficient despite the fact that between 1999/2000 and 2009/2010 the total area under vegetable cultivation increased almost 60%, from 149,030 ha to 235,098 ha, and average productivity increased 28%, from 9,996 kg/ha in 1999/2000 to 12,777 kg/ha in 2009/2011 (MoAC, 2010) (Table 5). Data for the year 2012 from the Kalimati Fruit and Vegetable Wholesale Market (KFVWM) indicates that the shortfall is met by imports (Figure 12). According to MoAC, Nepal imported foodstuff worth USD 621 million (Table 6) and exported agricultural products worth less than half that, USD 248 million (KFVWM, 2010), meaning that trade in agriculture contributes to Nepals overall trade deficit. That food balance at district (Figure 14) is getting negative suggests that the trend is likely to continue.

Peri-urban agriculture

To reiterate, UPA refers to the production of crops and livestock goods within cities and peri-urban areas. UPA systems include horticulture, floriculture, forestry, aquaculture, and the rearing of livestock (Mougeot, 2000) and contribute substantially toward meeting the specific, small-scale

FIGURE 12Food system components

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Interventions

Expansion of built-up areas

Industrial activities

Quarrying

Brick manufacturing

Extraction of sand and gravel from riverbeds

Groundwater pumping

Impacts

Loss and misuse of prime agricultural land Reduction of natural land and recharge potential

Conversion of prime agricultural land Disposal of untreated liquid and solid wastes

Loss of land under forest and degradation of forestsIncreased sedimentation from exposed land Loss of agricultural productivity in downstream plots

Loss of prime agriculture land Loss of nutrient-rich topsoil and therefore agricultural productivity

Loss of riverine features such as riverbanks

Deepening of river channels and therefore an increased threat to bridgesBiological degradation and threat to aquatic life

Lowered water levels and reduced soil moisture

Adapted from Baniya (2008)

TABLE 5Summary of Interventions and impacts


food needs of urban residents. In 1996 about 200 million people globally were employed in urban farming and related enterprises; by 2012, the number had quadrupled, with women (Tshuma and Mashoko, 2010) and the poor especially benefiting from the employment and income-generating opportunities UPA provides. UPA production comprises 15-20% of total global food production and helps feed 800 million urban dwellers (Havaligi, 2009). UPA can act as a waste sink by using organic fertiliser made from biodegradable city waste, sometimes through vermiculture. A few UPA farmers avail themselves of the growing market for organic products and such practices are also seen in Kathmandu but prospects are however limited by higher price and lack of certification of organically produced vegetables (Bhatta and Werner, 2011).

The fact that about one-quarter of the developing worlds poor live in urban areas (Ravallion et al., 2007) suggests that poverty is increasingly becoming an urban, rather than a rural problem and that the poor are urbanising faster than they did in the past. The urban poor currently make only a limited contribution to the overall economy of a city and UPA is largely subsistent but it could be commercialised and its potential to minimise urban poverty and strengthen food security realised if certain obstacles were overcome, including climate change. Given the increasing demand for food and the rising costs of importing food, however, promoting UPA could very well help build a robust urban food system that addressed food insecurity in Kathmandu Valley.

UPA products, primarily vegetables and cereals, were once contributing to the food basket of the valleys residents. The Jyapu, a Newar caste whose traditional occupation is farming, once possessed great expertise in the intensive cultivation of vegetables (FAO, 1994). Preserving a variety of good-quality seeds and applying organic fertilisers made of black clay, compost and human excrement, the Jyapu produced the majority of the fresh vegetables consumed by valley residents. Until the mid-1970s they cultivated land in what is today designated as the core area of Kathmandu, but these areas have long since been converted into built-up areas. The number of Jyapu families currently farming has declined dramatically not just with land-use changes but also because the young generations have sought new vocations. The nature of land tenure,

Region Edible production (Mt) Total edible Requirement Balance production (Mt) (Mt) Rice Maize Wheat Millet Barley Central Region 637,393 277,984 412,829 56,949 730 1,385,888 1,862,166 -476275Central Hills 149,375 189,451 75,593 32,288 422 447,129 873,452 -426,323Kathmandu 19,567 8,721 11,667 689 1.907136 40,645 28,4444 -243,799District Bhaktapur 10,686 1,392 8,106 81 14 20,279 55,102 -34,823 District Lalitpur 11,545 11644 6,303 640 68 30,201 82,786 -52,585District

TABLE 6Total availability of and requirements for edible food in 2009/2010

www.moad.gov.np


FIGURE 13Area under cereal cultivation and production

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FIGURE 14Area and production of vegetables in Nepal

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Crops Total Nepal India Tibet Total Volume Per cent Volume Per cent Volume Per cent (MT) (MT) (MT) (MT)

Tomato-Big 4,029 1,576 39.1 2,453 60.9 0 0Tomato-Small 20,146 20,060 99.6 86 0.4 0 0Onion-Dry 17,435 76 0.4 15,733 90.2 1626 9.33Onion-Green 696 673 96.7 23 3.3 0 0Cabbage 9,162 9,036 98.6 126 1.4 0 0Cauli flower-local 20,650 20650 100 0 0 0 0Cauliflower-Tarai 5,614 5,503 98 111 2 0 0Chili-Green 4,003 1,288 32.2 2.715 67.8 0 0Capsicum 556 207 37.2 349 62.8 0 0Cucumber 4,687 4161 88.8 526 11.2 0 0

Kalimati Fruits and Vegetables Wholesale Market, 2011

TABLE 7Annual trade in selected vegetables at Kalimati market (2010/2011)


particularly the fragmentation and small size of landholdings has also adversely affected UPA (though it is not necessarily a prohibitive factor). Even if none of these limitations existed, however, UPA products can meet only a certain percentage of any citys total food needs.

Those who practice UPA farming have made some adjustments. Many have abandoned traditional ways for mono-culture and chemical inputs and prefer to cultivate vegetables than cereals because the economic returns are greater. Especially if their land is close to a market, they allocate more inputs, including organic manure, to vegetable cultivation (Baniya, 2008). Because vegetables need careful attention, farmers often cultivate them in household plots or in plots near their households. With this change, farmers and other valley residents have turned to India and China for cereals though specialty items tend to come from further afield. The profusion in mobile phones has made farmers increasingly more self-reliant and less likely to ask middlemen to maintain contacts and negotiate prices.

Peri-urban case study sites

For practical reasons, the study considered the five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley as the urban core and the VDCs surrounding them as peri-urban though it is more accurate to describe all as desakota. The selection of VDCs for UPA assessment was an iterative process involving research,

BOX 2: Milk ProductionThe development of Nepals dairy sector began in 1953 when FAO helped establish a cheese factory (Acharya & Basnet, 2009). A few years later, the Department of Agriculture established a small-scale milk processing plant in Nepals central region. Then, in 1969, the Dairy Development Corporation (DDC) was established to meet the increasing demand of consumers of milk and milk products (FAO, 2010). The DDC (2012) aims to use its milk supply scheme aims to bridge the gap between farmers (supply) and urban consumers (demand) (DDC, 2012). More specifically, it is the increasing demand for dairy products fuelled by the growing population in urban Kathmandu that is seeing rural milk producers turn slowly toward supplying milk to urban consumers (FAO, 2010) and the development of private dairies.

To reduce farmers transaction costs in reaching end users, the DDC collects milk from centres in 40 districts. Many of these centres are located around Kathmandu in seven districts in the central development region; in fact, about 70% of milk supplied to Kathmandu comes from this central region (FAO, 2010). Not surprisingly, the Kathmandu Milk Supply Scheme has the most milk-producer cooperatives in the nation.

Access to road plays a major role in the collection and distribution of milk. Where there are no roads, ropeways are sometimes used. One such system was built from Bhattedanda to Jhankridanda, Lalitpur District, in the south of the valley (Gyawali, et al., 2004), but it stopped operating after a road was built and it was unable to compete.

Milk supplies have generally diminished for a variety of reasons which discourage the rearing of cattle and buffalo, including declines in stores of animal feed, the interest of youths in dairy farming, the accessibility of forests, and government support and increases in the costs of land and labour around highways (Gyawali, et al., 2004). Such declines have made it is difficult for dairies to meet the growing demand. Changes in temperature and precipitation promise to further reduce local milk production if they decrease forage production and thereby make it more difficult for farmers to feed their livestock.


interactions with local government officials, and general reconnaissance on the ground. Initial scoping suggested that a purposive selection method would suffice and, to that end, four VDCsLubhu, Tokha, Shanku and Ramkotand the two smallest municipalities in the valleyKirtipur and Madhyapur Thimiwere selected. Newars constitute the largest proportion of the population in all case study sites except Ramkot, where Chettris are dominant. Historically, the residents of

all six sites were engaged in agriculture and sold their agricultural products, including vegetables, fruits and cereals, in Kathmandu and Lalitpur (Figure 16). These communities also depend on business, service and wage labour, and, in recent times, on remittances from workers abroad. All are served by the national electricity grid and have a road network, telecommunication and other services. Most VDC residents cook with LPG, kerosene or biogas; only a few still depend upon traditional sources such as firewood. Details about the sites are presented in Table in Annex 1.

During SLDs, farmers opined that rainfall is becoming erratic and that its vagaries have affected agriculture. They also said it was difficult to buy fertilisers and insecticides, a difficulty passed on to consumers through hikes in food prices. Farmers feel that the productivity of paddy has declined because it is sensitive to weather at all stages of its growth, from seeding through harvesting. Delays in monsoon rains shifted not only plantation times but also reduced gestation and maturation periods. Paddy is also susceptible to pest infestations, which they

said had increased. Farmers claimed that the production and productivity of wheat declines when winter rainfall is deficient or when it rains during the maturation or pre-harvesting stages and that excess soil moisture during the sowing period can cause seeds to rot before they germinate. Many farmers identified weed management as a major problem, explaining that low rainfall also weed populations, reducing production and adding to its cost.

Water management challenges are equally serious in the VDCs. Damage to and the degradation of intakes, canals, and appurtenances has rendered many existing irrigation systems dysfunctional and lead to a drastic reduction in or complete shut-off of water supplies, even in areas where water user associations exist. The valleys limited water sources are taxed by competition among various demands for water, including drinking and industry, and water is often diverted from irrigation to serve those purposes. Widespread sand mining also impacts irrigation badly by lowering riverbeds and thereby rendering existing intakes too high to be able to divert water into canals, which now devoid of water, are being encroached upon. The expanding of urban space, construction of roads and housing and reduction of river flow and rise in river pollutants have also contributed to the dysfunction of irrigation systems.

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UPA is dependent on a variety of institutions, including agriculture service centres, farmers groups, and government offices, primarily district agriculture development offices (DADOs) (Table 9). Male and female farmers form groups according to the crop they cultivate but more than twice as many group members are women and vegetable and cereal producing groups are the most prevalent. Vegetable-producing groups show the greatest gender disparity, with women outnumbering men five to one (Table 8). In collaboration with DADOs, farmers groups provide their members with capacity-building training and seeds and identify new markets. Those who are not members are excluded from these and other services.

Besides producer-farmers, UPA involves middlepersons, farmland owners, transporters of agricultural produce and vegetable sellers. To facilitate the sale of agricultural produce, in 1986 the Department of Food and Agricultural Marketing Services under the Ministry of Agricultural Development established the KFVVM. At 2.25 ha, it is the biggest fruit and vegetable market in Kathmandu. Each wholesaler is provided 90 sq ft; each retailer, 36 sq ft4 and stalls are categorised into seven types. There are 296 wholesale stalls, 69 retail stalls, 26 fish stalls, 25 cooperatives, 17 fish sheds, 14 shuttered units, and four canteens and restaurants. Potatoes, onions, fresh vegetables, fresh fish, mushrooms,

BOX 3:A laboratory study on the influence of higher temperatures and concentrations of carbon dioxide on crop yield conducted at the National Agriculture Research Council (NARC) showed that rice yields increased by 17.07% and 26.58% when the temperature in an open-top chamber was increased by 6.2oC and 7.36oC respectively. When the temperature was increased by 1.16oC, carbon dioxide production doubled and yields 9.51% more than that in control plots. Pinnacle initiation, flowering, heading, milking and crop maturity periods decreased by 7,4,4,4, and 6 days respectively when temperature was increased. Wheat yields also increased with a temperature rise: a rise of 6.94oC saw an 8.63% increase in production. With an increase of just 0.18oC, carbon dioxide production doubled and yields were 9.7% more than that in control plots. Pinnacle initiation, heading, flowering, milking and physiological maturity decreased by 14, 5, 9, 6 and 14 days respectively when temperature was increased.

While encouraging, these experimental results showing that increased temperatures and concentrations of carbon dioxide have a positive effect on rice and wheat production in controlled plots do not accurately reflect the actual impact that climate change will have on agricultural production and practices, which will also include effects on the use and management of production inputs.

Crop Farmers group Number Men WomenVegetable 67 319 1,550Fruits 11 196 112Cereals 38 672 770Bee keeping 4 57 28Mushroom 1 0 34Seed multiplication 1 0 63Integrated 38 352 966Total 160 1,596 3,523

TABLE 8Farmers groups in the case study VDCs

District Agriculture Statistics Data Book, 2011

4 http://www.kalimatimarket.com.np/index.php?page=eprofile


spices, and fruit are the main produce traded. According to the KFVWMs annual report, 8.29% of produce comes from within the valley, 63.17% from other areas in Nepal, 26.30% from India, and 2.24% from China. Through personal contacts, traders export potatoes, ginger, and garlic to India and capsicum, potatoes, cabbage, and tomatoes to China and supply to other markets within the valley (Table 9). Two other vegetable markets, one in Balaju in the northwest of the valley and the other in Dharke, Dhading District, are under the umbrella of KFVWM.

Women constitute just 15% of registered members of KFVWM. While women constitute 40% of leafy green vegetable wholesalers, just 5% of onion and potato wholesalers are women. About 16% of traders involved in KFVWM are well-to-do, 64% middle class and 20% relatively poor. Wholesaler farmers are generally better off than retailers. It is difficult to assess the actual amount of vegetables produced in the valley and the population served by local production because not all vegetable products sold in Kathmandu Valley gets to the market through official channels of KFVWM. In fact, large quantities enter the market informally via middlepersons, who collect vegetables directly from production sites for distribution. Also, a large number of women, mostly poor immigrants, collect vegetables from farmers in their fields and sell them at busy road junctions in Kathmandu.

Trucks, pick-ups, vans, mini-trucks, and buses are used to transport food from distant villages while almost all types of vehicles, including bicycles and rickshaws, are used for short-distance transportation. About 20% of farmers transport their produce themselves; the rest use middlepersons, who are usually local traders. These middlepersons fix the prices of fruit and vegetables. Prices fluctuate with time, quality, quantity and circumstances and are usually determined through an understanding among farmers, traders and middlepersons. Some traders buy produce directly from farmers and pay them 7-8% of their profit. During Nepals main festival season, Dashian and Tihar, increased demand drives prices up, giving farmers the opportunity to make an extra profit. In contrast, strikes and political actions hinder trade. When farmers cannot get their produce to the market due to a bandh, or general shut-down, it often rots in the fields. The profits of farmers who themselves transport their vegetables to the market are eaten into by the steady increase in the prices of petroleum products.

FIGURE 17Make of Kathmandu vegetable supply market

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Despite the efforts of the KFVWM committee to manage sales by, challenges remain. The committee has allocated 9% of the stalls to farmers and cooperatives but there are a limited number of stalls and it is not possible to accommodate everyone. For this reason, the volume of vegetable transactions through informal mechanisms is considerable. Another problem is storage: about 500-600 Mt of agricultural commodities enter KFVWM daily, but the extant storage facilities, including cold storage, are insufficient and what does exist is poorly managed. Because many vegetables spoil rapidly or are damaged in handling, prices are routinely higher in the morning than in the evening and sellers have been known to dump unsold vegetables because there are no storage facilities.

Actors such as agro-vets, suppliers of equipment, and dealers in inputs, including seeds, fertilizers and pesticides and are also involved in food system processes. Training centres and programmes such as integrated pest management provide technical support; members and financial institutions provide loans to food system. In addition, Kathmandu Valley has 18 agriculture cooperatives and five agriculture-based industries (ISET-Nepal, 2011). A few national and international non-governmental organisations, including civil society groups, train farmers in permaculture, seed distribution, vegetable farming, and modern agricultural technologies like tunneling.

Climate change and other change drivers are introducing new risks to the valleys food system. Nepal, a country noted for its vulnerability to climate change, is experiencing an increase in temperature and in extreme weather as well as a shift in precipitation patterns, all of which

TABLE 10Commodities imported to the KFVM

Particulars

Outside valley (Districts)Makawanpur, Dhading, Nuwakot, Nawalparasi, Chitawan, Sarlahi, Sunsari, Morang, Jhapa, Dhanusa, Rautahat, Gorkha, Dolkha, Kavrepalanchowk, Sindhupalchok

From valley Kathmandu, Bhaktapur, Lalitpur

From Other Countries

India

Types of commodity

Seasonal and off season vegetables like potatoes, onion, cabbage, cauliflower, radish, tomato, bitter gourd, vegetable gourd, ladys finger, ginger, bottle gourd, spices, cow pea, peas, cucumber, ginger, co co yam, yam, sponge guard.

Fresh and leafy vegetables likebroad leaf mustard, spinach leaf, cress leaf, mustard leaf, fenugreek leaf, onion green, mushroom, asparagus, broad bean, Yam, Bavelu, balsam apple, cow pea, sweet potato, radish, cristophine, capsicum, spices, soyabean, mint, shallot, turnip, pumpkin, beans, brinjal, fish.

Seasonal and off seasonal vegetables like tomatoes, brinjal, potato, lemon, carrot, cauliflower, bottle gourd, pointed gourd, spices, tamarind, onion, pumpkin, peas, potatoes, shallot, balsam apple, cow pea and fruits like apple, banana, coconut, pomegranate, mango, orange, peach, grapes, pineapple, strawberry, pears, sugarcane, water melon, tree melon, sweet orange, lichi, fish. Fruits and vegetables like apple, tree melon, pears, garlic, ginger, fish.

Potatoes (In shortage only)


will directly and indirectly affect the valleys food system as a whole and UPA within it. People whose livelihoods depend on the food system will be affected, as will the urban poor, who, as production costs rise, will have to spend ever-greater proportions of their income on food. Ensuring food security for all valley residents will require introducing measures to deal with existing and new sources of vulnerabilities.

Climate change scenarios

Before it can adequately address climate change, Nepal must know what climate change means for the country particularly its monsoon dependent climate. Accordingly, the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM, 2007) and the Nepal Climate Vulnerability Study Group (NCVST, 2009) have used regional and general circulation models (GCMs) to develop future scenarios of climate for Nepal. The DHM analysed datasets including monthly mean surface air temperatures and precipitation for the period from 1960 to 1990, while NCVST used 15 different GCMs, divided Nepal into three zones (Figure 18) and developed scenarios of changes in temperature and precipitation for 2030, 2060 and 2090. Their predictions are presented below.

Temperature: NCVST (2009) predicts that mean temperatures will increase except during the pre-monsoon season and that temperatures will be higher in western than in eastern Nepal during all seasons (NCVST, 2009). These scenarios broadly match the recorded trend in valley temperatures, which show a general warming trend from 1921 to the 1940s, followed by a cooling trend until the mid-1970s and then another warming trend after that (Shrestha, 2001; Shrestha et al., 1999, as cited in Chaulagain, 2006), and recent data indicates that temperatures are continuing to increase across the country and that the rise in Kathmandu exceeds the national average (Shrestha, 2000) (Figure 21). Farmers in the case study VDCs also report that days and nights are hotter. Indeed, because of its bowl shape, high levels of pollution, and rapid urbanisation, the valley is likely to become a heat island.

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FIGURE 18Per centage of vegetable in Kathmandu Kalimati

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Precipitation: Because there are too few rainfall stations in the valley to capture micro-level variations, future scenarios can claim only that precipitation will be more uncertain and cannot predict with certainty if rainfall will increase or decrease. An analysis of precipitation at Tribhuvan Airport revealed that there have been no changes in the decadal averages of annual or June-to-September (monsoon) rainfall, the number of rainy days or the date of the onset of monsoon (Karmacharya, 2010). Employing a high-resolution precipitation GCM developed by the Meteorological Research Institute in Japan as well as precipitation data from 1979 to 2003 at 16 stations inside and around the upper Bagmati river basin, Mishra and Herat (2009) assessed the impact of climate change on precipitation patterns in that region, which includes Kathmandu Valley. They suggest that there will be a significant increase in monsoon precipitation and a decrease in other months and that the frequency of extreme precipitation events will increase. The worst-case scenario of Jha (n.d.), which is based on 21 GCMs, suggests that precipitation in Kathmandu Valley and the number of days in a month that will get rainfall will decrease. Jhas average-case scenario, in contrast, found that average annual precipitation would increase slightly. Though acknowledging that modeling is not specific about changes in precipitation, NCVST (2009) suggests that, except in the post- and pre-monsoon seasons, rainfall in Nepal is likely to decrease in both the West and East, though more so in the East during the monsoon and winter seasons. The East will see increases in the post- and pre-monsoon seasons. NCVST (2009) projects that the frequency of rainfall will increase slightly in the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons but decrease slightly during the winter and pre-monsoon. Collectively, these findings suggest that strategies need to be put in place to adapt to the more uncertain precipitation that faces Nepal including Kathmandu Valley.

FIGURE 19Division of Nepal for climate change scenarios

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Assessing vulnerability: Urban poverty and marginalisation

The definition of vulnerability the IPCC uses is a useful starting point to assess the characteristics and vulnerability of UPA in Kathmandu Valley. It defines vulnerability as the degree to which systems are susceptible to and unable to cope with the adverse impacts of climate change: Vulnerability is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and the variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity (IPCC, 2007). Human beings vulnerability to climate change is a function of their susceptibility to exposure and their capacity to shift strategies in ways that reduce that susceptibility (ISET, 2008). As outlined above in the conceptual framework of this study, systems play a critical role in building UPA resilience. If systems are fragile, exposed to climate hazards and dysfunctional in their operation and management, then general vulnerability to climate change impacts is likely to be high, and the marginalised are likely to become even more vulnerable. Faced with climate and other changes, fragile systems will cease to serve users and the marginalised, because they cannot change their strategies and access these services elsewhere, will have to do without.

In terms of vulnerability, Nepals high rate of poverty, 34.6% of the rural population and 9.6% of the urban (NLSS, 2004) are cause for concern, as is the growing economic and social disparity between rich and poor, urban and rural associated with the

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