Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Perspective for poultry meat and eggs in the EU
Peter van HornePoultry Economist
Agricultural Economics Research institute (LEI)Wageningen- University and Research Center (WUR)
The Netherlands
Hannover, November 2010
Content
� EU Poultry meat � Current situation� Trends / Forecast
� EU eggs� Current Situation� Trends / Forecast
� EU policy on CAP and WTO� Sustainability
Worldwide Production and Trade:
Current Situation
Part 1. Poultry meat
Main players in broiler meat production
Europe: ranking UK nr 9 en Spain nr 12
usa 21%
china14%
brazil13%
EU11%
mexico 3%
India 3%
Russia3%
other32%
World: Main trade flows poultry meatDominated by Brazil and USA (together 75%)
US
Brazil
Russia
TH Japan
Thailand
EU
EU Production and trade:
Current Situation
Poultry meat
Evolution of poultry production in the EU (‘000
tonnes)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Pro
duct
ion
('000
tonn
es)
0,94
0,96
0,98
1
1,02
1,04
1,06
1,08
1,1
Self-sufficiency (%
)
Production Self-sufficiency
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
Source: Agraceas / EU
Consumption in the EU, total (‘000 tonnes) and per capita (kg/head)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Con
sum
ptio
n ('0
00 to
nnes
)
17,0
18,0
19,0
20,0
21,0
22,0
23,0
24,0
25,0
Consum
ption (kg/head)
Total Per capita
EU 15 EU 27EU 25
Source: Agraceas / EU
BSEBSEBSEBSE
HPAI
EU trade of poultry meat
Source: Eur. commission
EU imports of poultry meat, 2009 (volume, %)
Brazil: Frozen / salted Chicken breast
Thailand: Cooked chicken breast
Source: Eur. commission
Brazil75%
Thailand16%
Chili 4%
other5%
Export destinations EU poultry meat(legmeat, whole birds)
USA
Brazil
M.East
EURusland
Africa
Thailand
• Medium term prospects arepositive.
• Consumption: increase• Production: small increase• export EU: low value
products: stable / decrease• Import EU: higher value
chicken breast: stable
Poultry meat forecast EU
0.0
3.0
6.0
9.0
12.0
15.0
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Pro
duct
ion,
Con
sum
ptio
n
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
Tra
de
Production
Consumption
Exports
Imports
EU-15 EU-27EU-12 EU-25
Medium-term forecast for EU poultry meat marketEU production, consumption, trade (mill tonnes cwe)
Source: Eur. commission
International Competition
Production cost farm + slaughter (per kg carcass)
NL G FR US TH BR
cost
per
kg
carc
ass
wei
ght
primary Slaughter
Differencewith low cost
countries 30 to 40%
Regulations in the EU
� Welfare broilers� Lower stocking density / mortality (EU)� Foot pad lessions (NL, DK, Sw)
� Environment � Reduce ammonia emission (EU, NL, G)� Reduce fine dust (EU, NL)
� Food safety � Salmonella control (EU)� Reduction in use of antibiotics (NL)� No meat and bone meal (EU)� Ban on growth promoters (EU)� GMO free / approved feed ingredients (EU)
Free trade Fair trade
Import leviesProduction cost in EU due to public concern
Conclusions poultry meat
� Self sufficiency rate EU-27 around 100%� Economic optimum: Import high value breast
meat and export low value leg meat.
� Production cost not competitive with BR,US,TH,AR
� Free trade or Fair trade: balance between level of:
� Laws and regulations (sustainability)� Import levies
Worldwide Production and Trade:
Current Situation
Part 2. Eggs
Leading hen egg producing countries (FAO,2007)
china37%
usa9%
India 5%
Japan4%
Mexico4%
Russia4%
Brazil3%
other34%
Regional trade in shell eggs Regional trade in shell eggs
eggs in shell72%
liquid egg products
14%
egg powder14%
International trade : 1.7 MT egg equivalent (3% of the world production)
Source: ITAVI from FAO data 2006
+6.2 % per year
+6.2 % per year
+3.7 % per
year
EU Production and trade:
Current Situation
Eggs
Egg production (‘000 tonnes) and self-sufficiency levels (%) in the EU, 2000 - 2009
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
7.000
8.000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Egg
pro
duct
ion
('000
tonn
es)
100,0
100,5
101,0
101,5
102,0
102,5
103,0
103,5
Self-sufficiency (%
)
Volume Self-sufficiency
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
Egg consumption per capita in the EU, 1998 – 2009 (kg/head)
11
11,5
12
12,5
13
13,5
14
14,5
15
15,5
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Con
sum
ptio
n pe
r ca
pita
(kg
/hea
d)
Consumption (per capita)
EU 15 EU 25 EU 27
EU trade of eggs (equivalent)
Source: Eur. commission
International trade towards EU in eggs / egg products
VS
Argentina
Rusland
IndiaMexico
Japan
Thailand
EU Eggs Exports (egg equivalent, DG Agri, 2009)
Consumption: small increase (UK, NL, diff per
country)
Production: small increase (2015 by Windhorst, IEC)
export EU: to Switersland and Japan: stable
Import EU: egg powder from low costcountries. Increase ?
Eggs forecast EU
International Competition
Production cost Eggs in 2008 outside EU, Farm level (Ect/kg)
1519
10 13 11 11
50
53
37
4038
33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
NL FR US BR ARG IND
euro
cen
t per
kg
manure
electricity
general
housing
labour
other
feed
pullet
Regulations in the EU
� Animal Welfare� Environment
� Food safety
Towards 2012 within EU
1. EU Directive welfare for laying hens2003: Space allowance 550 cm2/hen 2012: Enriched cages with 750 cm2,
laying nest, perch, litter
2. EU: Beaktrimming before 10 days (ban in NL, UK, G ?)
3. Netherlands (2012) and Germany (2010): colony cage with 890 cm2 per hen.
Alternative / barn:
Perch
Laying nest
Litter
More space
Enriched cage
Perch
Laying nest
Litter
Cage height
More space
Housing systems
Meer space per hen, increase in production cost ….
93 96 100108 110
122
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
cage 350-400 cm2(world)
`cage 430cm2 (US)
cage 550cm2
enrichedEU
Colony Aviary
%
Free trade ?
• In 2012 large difference in housing system EU and rest of the world
• Additional increasein production cost of 8%
• Protection onEU borders ?
Eggs: breaking and drying into egg powder
Long shelf life and low transport cost
Free trade Fair trade
Lower import levies
Increase in production cost in EU due to public concern
EU policy Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and WTO:
Reform of the last 20 years (L. Hoelgaard, DG Agri)
� Lower intervention prices and safety net (milk, cereals)� Reduction/abolition of export refunds (milk, cereals, meat) � Improved market access (quota, bilateral agreements)
� Consequence: market orientation � Respect of Good Agricultural and Environmental
Conditions
Common Agricultural Policy EU (CAP)
Thanks to the CAP reforms, the EU can have a high level of ambition in the WTO Doha round: Offering:
� Domestic support: � Reduction of Trade-Distorting Support for the EU.
� Market access: � large average tariff cut for the EU;
� Export subsidies: � elimination of subsidies by 2013
� Draft modalities: significant tariff cuts (average 60%) with preserving flexibilities for sensitive products (with increased market access).
� Future safeguard for Poultry meat / eggs and egg products ?
WTO – the EU position (L. Hoelgaard DG Agri)
EU position in the worldPlanet
Climate chanceEnergy savingGM cropsEnvironment (NH3)
PeopleFoodsafetyAnimal welfareUse of antibiotics
ProfitFair incomeFair competition
