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Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries
Chris Swann
Espicom Business Intelligence
Contents
• Demographics
• Economic factors
• Pharmaceutical market characteristics
• Summary - Overview of markets
Population (million)
0
50
100
150
200
250
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
CHILECOLO
MBIA
CUBA
MEXICO
PERUVENEZU
ELA
2006 2015
Source: EIU
% of population aged 65+ years
6.1
8.2
5.2 5.3 5.2
7.0
9.5
5.8 5.9 5.95.8
10.6
4.9
6.6
11.0
5.4
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
CHILE
COLOMBIA
MEXICO
PERUVENEZU
ELA
INDIA
2006 2011
Source: EIU
Population growth (%)
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
INDIA ARGENTINA BRAZILCHILE COLOMBIA CUBAMEXICO PERU VENEZUELA
Source: EIU
GDP (US$ billions)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
CHILECOLO
MBIA
CUBA
MEXICO
PERUVENEZU
ELA
2007 2015
India - 2007 - US$972.7 billion;2015 - US$2,312.5 billion
Source: EIU
GDP growth (%)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
INDIA ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIACUBA MEXICO PERU VENEZUELA
Source: EIU
GDP per capita (US$)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
INDIA
ARGENTINA
BRAZIL
CHILECOLO
MBIA
CUBA
MEXICO
PERUVENEZU
ELA
2007 2015
Source: EIU
Pharmaceutical Market -2006Market Size
(US$ bn)Per Capita
(US$)Growth Rate
(%)
Argentina 4.2 106 10.0
Brazil 12.9 70 5.0
Chile 1.3 82 9.0
Colombia 1.8 38 5.0
Cuba 273 million 24 5.0
Mexico 13.2 122 12.0
Peru 963 million 34 5.0
Venzuela 3.6 133 12.1
Argentina
• Market collapsed by 70% in 2002
• Copycat products traditionally dominate
• Limited intellectual property rights
• Government plans to increase pharma access
• Market growth dependent on economic stability
Brazil
• Largest market in Latin America
• Becoming more characteristic of a ‘developed’ market
• Access to pharmaceuticals is a national issue
– Compulsory licensing in emergencies
• Limited culture of registering innovation
– Bioequivalence standards rarely adhered to
• Despite cost containment, considerable growth potential
Brazil - continued
• Growth of generics to outperform pharma market
• Govt plans for increased investment in domestic production
• ‘Popular pharmacies’ & OTCs to increase market volume
• Market is heavily dependent on GDP growth
Chile
• Sixth largest market in region, characterised by protectionism
• History of low IP adherence
– Adoption of international standards to enter other markets
• Copycat drugs - an historical issue
– MoH keen to import from India as a means to contain expenditure in the hospital sector
• Perceived to be one of Latin America’s better economic performers
Colombia• Fifth largest market - high incidence of ‘under-
the-counter’ sales
• Healthcare reform instrumental in market growth
• Domestic industry relatively well-developed
– Some indigenous industry worried about impact of FTA
• Counterfeit goods, ≈2-3% of market value
– Decreasing due to GMP adoption
• Market is very fragmented with many opportunities
Cuba
• Strong domestic pharmaceutical & biotechnology
• Production is GMP compliant, but imports continue to increase
• Economy continues to grow, 9% - 2005, 5% p.a. over next few years
• Domestically produced drugs are heavily subsidised, while imports can be bought for hard currency
• Market growth is expected to mirror economic growth rate
Mexico• Leading pharma market in Latin America
• Wave of generic producers looking for opportunities. Beware of counterfeit producers.
• Large proportion of expenditure is out-of-pocket
• Patent enforcement, increased hospital expenditure, increased drug consumption - some factors that have stimulated the market
• 40 blockbuster drugs come off patent by 2012
• Universal health coverage will further stimulate demand
Peru
• Small, stable market where preferential treatment is given towards other Latin American countries.
• High proportion are ‘poor’ - issue of healthcare provision
• Public & private sector collaboration will stimulate the market
• If have control of vertical system ⇒ price control
• Little enforcement of bioequivalence measures
Venezuela
• Recent, rapid market growth - 18.5% in 2005. Further expansion will be import led
• Data exclusivity and lack of standards ensure that exports are negligible
• New national health system will stimulate market
• Wholesale and distribution chains control 70% of pharmacy sector
• Market relies on economic performance for growth; generics - 40% of market by volume
SWOT analysis for generics
Strengths•Generic competition encouraged•Weak reimbursement systems
Weaknesses•Regulatory differences•What is a ‘generic’?•Non-standard bioequivalence•Local industry protection•Acceptance of generics
Opportunities•IP enforcement & FTAs•Improved quality control•Promotion of generics•Mandatory substitution
Threats•Economies may not grow as expected•Non-bioequivalence & ‘copycats’
Summary
• Market growth is heavily dependent on economic performance
• Healthcare reforms relate to more of the population gaining access to basic healthcare
• Price controls aim to reduce expenditure, not usage
• Generics to outperform market as a whole, beware of ‘copycats’
• Rapid market growth but still low per capita expenditure
