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Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries Chris Swann Espicom Business Intelligence

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Page 1: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Chris Swann

Espicom Business Intelligence

Page 2: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Contents

• Demographics

• Economic factors

• Pharmaceutical market characteristics

• Summary - Overview of markets

Page 3: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Population (million)

0

50

100

150

200

250

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

CHILECOLO

MBIA

CUBA

MEXICO

PERUVENEZU

ELA

2006 2015

Source: EIU

Page 4: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

% of population aged 65+ years

6.1

8.2

5.2 5.3 5.2

7.0

9.5

5.8 5.9 5.95.8

10.6

4.9

6.6

11.0

5.4

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

CHILE

COLOMBIA

MEXICO

PERUVENEZU

ELA

INDIA

2006 2011

Source: EIU

Page 5: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Population growth (%)

0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

INDIA ARGENTINA BRAZILCHILE COLOMBIA CUBAMEXICO PERU VENEZUELA

Source: EIU

Page 6: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

GDP (US$ billions)

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

CHILECOLO

MBIA

CUBA

MEXICO

PERUVENEZU

ELA

2007 2015

India - 2007 - US$972.7 billion;2015 - US$2,312.5 billion

Source: EIU

Page 7: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

GDP growth (%)

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

INDIA ARGENTINA BRAZIL CHILE COLOMBIACUBA MEXICO PERU VENEZUELA

Source: EIU

Page 8: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

GDP per capita (US$)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

INDIA

ARGENTINA

BRAZIL

CHILECOLO

MBIA

CUBA

MEXICO

PERUVENEZU

ELA

2007 2015

Source: EIU

Page 9: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Pharmaceutical Market -2006Market Size

(US$ bn)Per Capita

(US$)Growth Rate

(%)

Argentina 4.2 106 10.0

Brazil 12.9 70 5.0

Chile 1.3 82 9.0

Colombia 1.8 38 5.0

Cuba 273 million 24 5.0

Mexico 13.2 122 12.0

Peru 963 million 34 5.0

Venzuela 3.6 133 12.1

Page 10: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Argentina

• Market collapsed by 70% in 2002

• Copycat products traditionally dominate

• Limited intellectual property rights

• Government plans to increase pharma access

• Market growth dependent on economic stability

Page 11: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Brazil

• Largest market in Latin America

• Becoming more characteristic of a ‘developed’ market

• Access to pharmaceuticals is a national issue

– Compulsory licensing in emergencies

• Limited culture of registering innovation

– Bioequivalence standards rarely adhered to

• Despite cost containment, considerable growth potential

Page 12: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Brazil - continued

• Growth of generics to outperform pharma market

• Govt plans for increased investment in domestic production

• ‘Popular pharmacies’ & OTCs to increase market volume

• Market is heavily dependent on GDP growth

Page 13: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Chile

• Sixth largest market in region, characterised by protectionism

• History of low IP adherence

– Adoption of international standards to enter other markets

• Copycat drugs - an historical issue

– MoH keen to import from India as a means to contain expenditure in the hospital sector

• Perceived to be one of Latin America’s better economic performers

Page 14: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Colombia• Fifth largest market - high incidence of ‘under-

the-counter’ sales

• Healthcare reform instrumental in market growth

• Domestic industry relatively well-developed

– Some indigenous industry worried about impact of FTA

• Counterfeit goods, ≈2-3% of market value

– Decreasing due to GMP adoption

• Market is very fragmented with many opportunities

Page 15: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Cuba

• Strong domestic pharmaceutical & biotechnology

• Production is GMP compliant, but imports continue to increase

• Economy continues to grow, 9% - 2005, 5% p.a. over next few years

• Domestically produced drugs are heavily subsidised, while imports can be bought for hard currency

• Market growth is expected to mirror economic growth rate

Page 16: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Mexico• Leading pharma market in Latin America

• Wave of generic producers looking for opportunities. Beware of counterfeit producers.

• Large proportion of expenditure is out-of-pocket

• Patent enforcement, increased hospital expenditure, increased drug consumption - some factors that have stimulated the market

• 40 blockbuster drugs come off patent by 2012

• Universal health coverage will further stimulate demand

Page 17: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Peru

• Small, stable market where preferential treatment is given towards other Latin American countries.

• High proportion are ‘poor’ - issue of healthcare provision

• Public & private sector collaboration will stimulate the market

• If have control of vertical system ⇒ price control

• Little enforcement of bioequivalence measures

Page 18: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Venezuela

• Recent, rapid market growth - 18.5% in 2005. Further expansion will be import led

• Data exclusivity and lack of standards ensure that exports are negligible

• New national health system will stimulate market

• Wholesale and distribution chains control 70% of pharmacy sector

• Market relies on economic performance for growth; generics - 40% of market by volume

Page 19: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

SWOT analysis for generics

Strengths•Generic competition encouraged•Weak reimbursement systems

Weaknesses•Regulatory differences•What is a ‘generic’?•Non-standard bioequivalence•Local industry protection•Acceptance of generics

Opportunities•IP enforcement & FTAs•Improved quality control•Promotion of generics•Mandatory substitution

Threats•Economies may not grow as expected•Non-bioequivalence & ‘copycats’

Page 20: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Summary

• Market growth is heavily dependent on economic performance

• Healthcare reforms relate to more of the population gaining access to basic healthcare

• Price controls aim to reduce expenditure, not usage

• Generics to outperform market as a whole, beware of ‘copycats’

• Rapid market growth but still low per capita expenditure

Page 21: Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American · PDF filePharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries ... • Counterfeit goods, ... Pharmaceutical Markets in Latin American Countries

Chris Swann,Market Briefings Analyst,

Espicom Business [email protected]