Successful Planning Strategies for Life & Investments
Text of Planning Strategies Q410
1. Successful Planning Strategies for Life & Investments
Barry Mendelson, CFP 925-988-0330 x22 [email_address] As of
December 31, 2010
2. Opinions expressed are those of Barry Mendelson, CFP and
Just Plans Etc. This presentation should not be construed as
investment advice. The information contained in this presentation
is compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Investments in
securities involve the risk of loss. Past performance is no
guarantee of future results. The markets can remain irrational
longer than you can remain solvent. Disclosures
3. Barry Mendelson, CFP Local investment and personal finance
guru. More than 15 years experience working for leading financial
services companies including Charles Schwab, AXA Rosenberg,
Neuberger Berman, and Franklin Templeton. Prior to joining Just
Plans Etc. in 2010, was a Vice President in Charles Schwab &
Cos $200 billion investment management division. Certified
Financial Planner certificate holder since 2008. B.A. in Business
Economics & Accounting from U.C. Santa Barbara in 1995. Just
Plans Etc. Founded in 1983 and based in Walnut Creek, California -
Just Plans Etc. is a fee-only wealth management firm and SEC
registered investment advisor. Just Plans provides investment
management and financial planning services to more than 100
individuals, families, and companies. The firm specializes in
tax-efficient investing and helpinginvestors realizemeaningful
value fromqualified retirement plans, concentrated stocks
positions, stock options, and other forms of equity. As a
fiduciary, the firm puts the interests of the client above all
else. About
6. Returns by Style Jan-10 Apr-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 1,000 1,050
1,100 1,150 1,200 1,250 1,300 Source: Russell Investment Group,
Standard & Poors, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. All
calculations are cumulative total return, including dividends
reinvested for the stated period. Since Market Peak represe nts
period 10/9/07 12/31/10 , illustrating market returns since the
most recent S&P 500 Index high on 10/9/07. Since Market Low
represents period 3/9/09 12/31/10 , illustrating market returns
since the S&P 500 Index low on 3/9/09. Returns are cumulative
returns, not annualized. For all tim e periods, total return is
based on Russell - style indexes with the exception of the large
blend category, which is reflected by th e S&P 500 Index. Past
performance is not indicative of future returns. Data are as of
12/31/10 . Jan-07 May-08 Sep-09 Dec-10 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400
1,600 S&P 500 Index S&P 500 Index 2010: +15.1% 4 Q10 :
+10.8% Since 10/9/07 Peak: - 13.6% 4 Q 2010 Since Market Low (March
2009) 2010 Since Market Peak (October 2007) Charts reflect index
levels (price change only). All returns and annotations reflect
total return, including dividends. Since 3/9/09 Low: +93.1% Value
Blend Growth Value Blend Growth Large 10.5% 10.8% 11.8% Large 15.5%
15.1% 16.7% Mid 12.2% 13.1% 14.0% Mid 24.8% 25.5% 26.4% Small 15.4%
16.3% 17.1% Small 24.5% 26.9% 29.1% Value Blend Growth Value Blend
Growth Large -19.9% -13.6% -4.7% Large 99.8% 93.1% 94.3% Mid -5.9%
-3.5% -2.0% Mid 140.3% 132.9% 126.6% Small -5.3% -2.9% -1.0% Small
134.2% 134.0% 133.6%
7. Various Asset Class Returns 10-yrs 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 4Q10 '01 - '10 REITs REITs DJ UBS
Cmdty MSCI EME REITs MSCI EME REITs MSCI EME Barclays Agg MSCI EME
REITs Russell 2000 MSCI EME 26.4% 13.9% 23.9% 56.3% 31.6% 34.5%
35.1% 39.8% 5.2% 79.0% 28.0% 16.3% 350.0% DJ UBS Cmdty Market
Neutral Barclays Agg Russell 2000 MSCI EME DJ UBS Cmdty MSCI EME
MSCI EAFE Market Neutral MSCI EAFE Russell 2000 DJ UBS Cmdty REITs
24.2% 9.3% 10.3% 47.3% 26.0% 17.6% 32.6% 11.6% 1.1%* 32.5% 26.9%
15.8% 178.0% Market Neutral Barclays Agg Market Neutral MSCI EAFE
MSCI EAFE MSCI EAFE MSCI EAFE DJ UBS Cmdty Asset Alloc. REITs MSCI
EME S&P 500 Russell 2000 15.0% 8.4% 7.4% 39.2% 20.7% 14.0%
26.9% 11.1% -23.8% 28.0% 19.2% 10.8% 84.8% Barclays Agg Russell
2000 REITs REITs Russell 2000 REITs Russell 2000 Market Neutral
Russell 2000 Russell 2000 DJ UBS Cmdty REITs Asset Alloc. 11.6%
2.5% 3.8% 37.1% 18.3% 12.2% 18.4% 9.3% -33.8% 27.2% 16.7% 7.4%
80.2% Asset Alloc. MSCI EME Asset Alloc. S&P 500 Asset Alloc.
Asset Alloc. S&P 500 Asset Alloc. DJ UBS Cmdty S&P 500
S&P 500 MSCI EME Market Neutral 0.6% -2.4% -5.4% 28.7% 12.5%
8.0% 15.8% 7.3% -36.6% 26.5% 15.1% 7.4% 76.9% . Russell 2000 Asset
Alloc. MSCI EME Asset Alloc. S&P 500 Market Neutral Asset
Alloc. Barclays Agg S&P 500 Asset Alloc. Asset Alloc. MSCI EAFE
Barclays Agg -3.0% -3.4% -6.0% 25.2% 10.9% 6.1% 14.9% 7.0% -37.0%
22.5% 12.7% 6.7% 76.3% S&P 500 S&P 500 MSCI EAFE DJ UBS
Cmdty DJ UBS Cmdty S&P 500 Market Neutral S&P 500 REITs DJ
UBS Cmdty MSCI EAFE Asset Alloc. MSCI EAFE -9.1% -11.9% -15.7%
22.7% 7.6% 4.9% 11.2% 5.5% -37.7% 18.7% 8.2% 6.4% 47.1% MSCI EAFE
MSCI EAFE Russell 2000 Market Neutral Market Neutral Russell 2000
Barclays Agg Russell 2000 MSCI EAFE Barclays Agg Barclays Agg
Barclays Agg DJ UBS Cmdty -14.0% -21.2% -20.5% 7.1% 6.5% 4.6% 4.3%
-1.6% -43.1% 5.9% 6.5% -1.3% 41.7% MSCI EME DJ UBS Cmdty S&P
500 Barclays Agg Barclays Agg Barclays Agg DJ UBS Cmdty REITs MSCI
EME Market Neutral Market Neutral Market Neutral S&P 500 -30.6%
-22.3% -22.1% 4.1% 4.3% 2.4% -2.7% -15.7% -53.2% 4.1% -2.5% -1.6%
15.1% Asset Class Source: Russell, MSCI Inc., Dow Jones, Standard
and Poors, Barclays Capital, NAREIT, J.P. Morgan Asset Management.
The Asset Allocation portfolio assumes the following weights: 25%
in the S&P 500, 10% in the Russell 2000, 15% in the MSCI EAFE
Index, 5% the MSCI EMI, 30% in the Barclays Capital Aggregate, 5%
in the CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral Index, 5% in the DJ UBS
Commodity Index and 5% in the NAREIT Equity REIT Index. Balanced
portfolio assumes annual rebalancing. All data except commodities
repr return for stated period. Past performance is not indicative
of future returns. Please see disclosure page at end for index d
efi as of 9/30/10, except for the CS/Tremont Equity Market Neutral
Index, which reflects data through 8/31/10. 10 - yrs returns repr
esent cumulative total return and are not annualized. These returns
reflect the period from January 1, 2000 December 31, 2010 *Market
Neutral returns include estimates found in disclosures. Data are as
of 12/31/10 .
8. Global Commodities 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 '96 '97 '98 '99
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 Source: Dow Jones/UBS,
FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Commodity prices represented
by the appropriate DJ/UBS Commodity sub - index. Data reflect most
recently available as of 12/31/10 . Source: USDA, BP Statistical
Review of World Energy, J.P. Morgan Asset Management . Data are as
of 12/31/10 . Class '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 0 50
100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 Commodity Prices Weekly index
prices rebased to 100 Precious metals Industrial metals Energy
Livestock Grains Oil Demand: Emerging Markets Share Emerging
markets as % of total global oil consumption Grain Demand: Emerging
vs. Developed Markets Millions of metric tons Emerging Markets
Developed Markets 30% 32% 34% 36% 38% '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02
'03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09
9. Monthly: January 1926-December 2009 CRSP data provided by
the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago.
The S&P data are provided by Standard & Poor's Index
Services Group. US long-term bonds, bills, inflation, and fixed
income factor data Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation Yearbook,
Ibbotson Associates, Chicago (annually updated work by Roger G.
Ibbotson and Rex A. Sinquefield). $8,201 Small Cap (CRSP 6-10
Index) $2,590 Large Cap (S&P 500 Index) $85 Long-Term
Government Bonds Index $20 Treasury Bills $12 Inflation (CPI)
$10,000 $1,000 $100 $10 $1 $0 1926 1936 1946 1956 1966 1976 1986
1996 2006 2009 Growth of Wealth
10. S&P 500 Index (USD) Daily Returns: January 1,
1926-March 31, 2010 Indices are not available for direct
investment; its performance does not reflect the expenses
associated with the management of an actual portfolio. Past
performance is no guarantee of future results. The S&P data are
provided by CRSP (January 1, 1926-August 31, 2008) and Bloomberg
(September 1, 2008-March 31, 2010). Returns include reinvested
dividends. Bull and bear markets are defined in hindsight using
cumulative daily returns. A bear market (1) begins with a negative
daily return, (2) must achieve a cumulative return less than or
equal to -10%, and (3) ends at the most negative cumulative return
prior to achieving a positive cumulative return. All data points
which are not considered part of a bear market are designated as a
bull market. Performance data represents past performance and does
not predict future performance. Average Duration Bull Market: 413
Days Bear Market: 220 Days Average Return Bull Market: 58% Bear
Market: -21% Bull and Bear Markets 220% -13% -85% 20% -16% -39%
119% 88% 27% -15% -10% -13% 100% 44% -53% 25% 40% -13% -14% 26%
-25% 22% -11% 23% -33% 83% -11% 99% -26% 19% -11% -16% 26% 53% 91%
-13% 121% -11% 26% -13% 18% 69% -21% -11% 44% -27% 15% 96% -11% 59%
-27% -10% -21% -32% 56% -12% 38% -45% 22% -13% 50% -13% 38% -15%
27% -13% 26% -10% 21% -16% 48% -20% 78% -11% 156% -33% 73% -10% 16%
-19% 303% -11% 37% 50% -19% -12% 23% -11% 13% -47% 21% -14% 113%
-55% 03/09/2009 -55% 3/31/2010 -20% 1% 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
2010
11. Historical returns by holding period - 37% - 8% - 15% - 2%
- 2% 1% - 1% 1% 2% 6% 1% 5% 51% 43% 32% 28% 23% 21% 19% 16% 17% 18%
12% 14% - 40% - 30% - 20% - 10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1 - yr.
5 - yr. rolling 10 - yr. rolling 20 - yr. rolling Annual total
returns, 1950 - 2009 Range of Stock, Bond and Blended Total Returns
Asset Sources: Factset , Robert Shiller , Strategas /Ibbotson,
Federal Reserve, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of
12/31/09. 50/50 Portfolio 9.0% $560,441 Bonds 6.2% $333,035 Stocks
10.8% $777,670 Annual Avg. Total Return 50/50 Portfolio Bonds
Stocks Growth of $100,000 over 20 years
12. Lessons Markets are difficult to predict in the short-term.
Diversifying globally expands your opportunity set. Be greedy when
others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. Warren
Buffet. Have a long-term perspective.
13. 2. Personal Planning Agenda
14. Charles Schwab More than 30 years ago, Charles R. Schwab
founded this firm with a clear mission: to empower individual
investors to take control of their financial lives, free from the
high costs and conflicts of traditional brokerage firms. His vision
- to provide the most useful and ethical financial services in the
world - continues to guide or values-driven approach to growth,
client service, community involvement and employee development.
Google Googles mission is to organize the worlds information and
make it universally accessible and useful. Dont be evil.
(Unofficial). Create a (Family) Mission Statement
15. Mendelson Family Mission Statement Know that time is our
most valuable asset. Experiences are more valuable than
possessions. Never stop learning. The world is our home explore it.
Spend time with those we love and respect and feel the same way
about us. Appreciate the world around us and all we have. Seek to
make the world a better place and improve the lives of those less
fortunate than us.
16. Know your roles Elliot (Line Worker) Sydney (Line Worker)
Kristin (CEO) Barry (Head of Production)
17. Philanthropy & Volunteerism In support of public
education Kristin Chair, Walnut Country Preschool Kristin Highlands
Elementary PTA Site Council Chairs 4 Charity In support of cancer
care and cure related causes Cancer Support Community of the East
Bay Leukemia & Lymphoma Society Have a Ball Foundation &
Golf Tournament In support of financial literacy Barry Board
member, Financial Planning Association of the East Bay
18. Goals Short-term: 1 5 Years Visit Disneyland, Death Valley
during the spring bloom, rent a house on Lake Almanor Straight As
in school Adopt a family Replace Kristins car, buy a boat
Long-term: 5 years + Learn to speak Spanish Travel to Asia
19. Lessons Define your goals. Create a plan. Put it into
action. Revisit it frequently.
20. 3. Chairs 4 Charity Agenda
21. Chairs 4 Charity www.chairs4charity.org Chairs 4 Charity
provides local not-for-profits valuable items to support their
fundraising efforts. Chairs 4 Charitys chairs and benches are made
from salvaged, lumber, skis, and snowboards. Source materials and
raise awareness with help from Sports Basement Walnut Creek, San
Ramon High PTA, local ski clubs, and other businesses.
22. Chairs 4 Charity www.chairs4charity.org Inspiration my
sister Leslies quilts.
23. Chairs 4 Charity www.chairs4charity.org Lead by example.
Reuse and repurpose materials. Artistic expression. Give back to
the community.
24. Creating a Family Mission Statement:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1LHtM8YhOh67IzpPyOzySlOU2App8w1jZtMp_EGtgWr0/edit?hl=en&authkey=COKBkokJ
Creating a Personal Disaster Plan for Your Home, Your Loved Ones
and Your Finances:
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1Ttxin-U6vYj4f8UPJgltHGTpLDdn5JX5l9Rc9CFepVM/edit?hl=en&authkey=CPShvNkE
More articles at: www.justplans-etc.blogspot.com Barry Mendelson,
CFP 925-988-0330 ext. 22 [email_address] www.JustPlans-Etc.com 1399
Ygnacio Valley Rd, Suite 24 Walnut Creek, CA 94598 Resources