Platts PP 23 Sept 2015

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This Weeks Highlights:

Asian Propylene: Falls to nine-month low on thin demand, supply glut

Asian PP: Prices edge up $5/mt in China, restocking in SEA, S Asia

INDEX:

Platts International Prices 1

Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1

Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT) 2

Polymerupdate CIF India Prices 2

Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 2

Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 3

Heard in PP Market 4

Currency Rates 4

Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 5

Polymerupdate - PP Market Supply Scenario 6

Platts Price Analysis Of PP Chain Processing Margins 7

Crisil ResearchMacroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 8

Point of Contact 10

Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 10

Platts - About us & Copyright 10

7/23/2019 Platts PP 23 Sept 2015

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Week 38

September 23, 2015

Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025

1

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

ProductSept 16

(WK 37)

Sept 23

(WK 38)

Price Change

on Week

India Crude basket: (USD/b) 44.83 46.01 +1.18

Naphtha: (MOP West India) 419.80 428.99 +9.19

Propylene :

FOB Korea 629-631 509-511 - 120

CFR China 694-696 644-646 - 50

CFR South East Asia 644-646 594-596 - 50

Poly propylene :

PP Injection South Asia 1049-1051 1049-1051 0

PP Injection Far East Asia 974-976 979-981 + 05

PP Injection South East Asia 1029-1031 1029-1031 0

PP Raffia South Asia 1049-1051 1049-1051 0

PP Raffia Far East Asia 974-976 979-981 + 05

PP Raffia South East Asia 1029-1031 1029-1031 0

PP IPP Film South Asia 1069-1071 1069-1071 0

PP IPP Film Far East Asia 994-996 999-1001 + 05

PP IPP Film South East Asia 1049-1051 1049-1051 0

PP Copolymer South Asia 1099-1101 1099-1101 0

PP Copolymer Far East Asia 1024-1026 1029-1031 + 05

PP Copolymer South East Asia 1069-1071 1069-1071 0

PP BOPP South Asia 1064-1066 1064-1066 0

PP BOPP Far East Asia 984-986 989-991 + 05

PP BOPP South East Asia 1049-1051 1049-1051 0

China Domestic (YUAN/MT EX-WORK):

PP Raffia 7580-7620 7630-7670 + 50

POLYMERUPDATE INDIAN DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE RIL (Ex-Hazira)

INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

ProductSept 16 (WK 37) Sept 23 (WK 38) Price Change on Week

INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG

PP Grade

Raffia 77.73 1061 79.73 1089 + 02

Injection 76.77 1048 78.77 1076 + 02

TQ Film

Homopolymer79.97 1093 81.97 1121 + 02

Block Copolymer 79.86 1091 81.86 1119 + 02

Random Copolymer 84.39 1155 86.39 1183 + 02

BOPP Homopolymer 82.10 1123 84.10 1151 + 02

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT

price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)

- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes

resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.

- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES

Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with

up to 30 days credit, basis CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou,

Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay),

Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh). Platts

prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication.

India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%)

MOP West India : Mean of Pl atts FOB West India naphtha export price
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]

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2

PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

From: Middle East Middle East

To: 25100 MT > 100 MT

East China 2025 1015

South China 1525 1015

India 4550 3040

Southeast Asia 3035 2530

NW Europe 5565 5060

Turkey 5070 4060

US Gulf 130140 120130

Latin America 165175 160165

NOTES:

Polymers refer to Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polystyrene, ABS, and PVC.

1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait), Rabigh

(Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between these ports.

2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports.

3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports.

4) India deliveries refer to products coming i nto Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports.

5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port

Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports.

6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be normalized to

Antwerp.

7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming i nto Istanbul and Mersin ports.

8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into main ports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)

PP Grade

CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)

South Korea Singapore Thailand Saudi Arabia

WK 37 WK 38 Price Changeon Week



WK 37 WK 38 Price Changeon WeekSep 16 Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 23

Raffia 1100 1110 + 10 1060 1070 + 10 1080 1090 + 10 1050 1060 + 10

Injection 1100 1110 + 10 1060 1070 + 10 1080 1090 + 10 1050 1060 + 10

TQ Film Homopolymer 1110 1130 + 20 1090 1100 + 10 1100 1110 + 10 1070 1080 + 10

Block Copolymer 1140 1150 + 10

1110 1120 + 10

1110 1120 + 10

-- -- -- --Random Copolymer 1160 1170 + 10 1140 1150 + 10 1130 1140 + 10 -- -- -- --

BOPP Homopolymer 1100 1130 + 30 1070 1075 + 05 1100 1110 + 10 -- -- -- --

- All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva) - For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days.

- Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.

- Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

Product Mumbai Delhi Kolkatta Banglore Indore Chennai Ahmedabad Rajasthan Kanpur Hyderabad Punjab Kerala

PP Raffia 90 - 90.5 90 - 91 90 - 91 90 - 90.5 91 - 92 87 - 88 93 - 94 90 - 90.5 90 - 90.5 92 - 92.5 95 - 96 89 - 90

PP Film 95 - 96 94 - 95 96 -97 94 - 94.5 95 - 96 92 - 93 96 - 97 93 - 93.5 93 - 93.5 96 - 96.5 98 - 99 91 - 92

PP Injection 89 - 89.5 89.5 - 9.5 90 - 91 90 - 90.5 92 - 93 89 - 90 93 - 94 90 - 90.5 88 - 88.5 92 - 92.5 93 - 94 89 - 90

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3

POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE) w.e.f 18-Sept-2015

BOPP

Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H029SG/H035SG 84100 1151

HALDIA (Ex-Works) F103 85700 1174

FIBRE FILAMENTS


RIL (Ex-Hazira) H350FG/H200FG 82080 1122

IMPACT COPOLYMER


RIL (Ex WorksBC/NC) MI3535 85930 1177

RIL (Ex-Hazira) B030MG/B120MA 81860 1119

HALDIA (Ex-Works) M304 86000 1178

INJECTION MOULDING (MFI - 3)


RIL (Ex-Hazira) H033MG 79230 1082


INJECTION MOULDING (MFI 8-11)


RIL (Ex WorksBC/NC) AM120N 77230 1054

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H110MA 78770 1076


RANDOM COPOLYMER


RIL (Ex-Hazira) R019MZ 86390 1183

RAFFIA


RIL (Ex WorksBC/NC) SS35N 79040 1080

RIL (Ex-Hazira) H030SG 79730 1089

HALDIA (Ex-Works) R103 87100 1193

TQ FILM


RIL (Ex-Hazira) H100EY 81970 1121

HALDIA (Ex-Works) F110 83800 1147

*Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)

- Ex Works: BC/NC = Ex Works Baroda Complex / Nagothane Complex | Ex Works: HC = Halidia Complex | Ex Works: M/B/T = Mumbai / Bhiwandi / Thane

- Product Key: BOPP = Biaxially-Oriented Polypropylene, MFI = Melt Flow Index,

- USD Price calculation: INR/MTAprox. Clearing and Forwarding charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 823302500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

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4

Heard in PP MARKET

Platts:

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct offers heard at $1040-1050/mt CFR SE Asia, Reliance origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct deals heard at $1030/mt CFR SE Asia, Reliance origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct offers heard at $1060/mt CFR S Asia (Pakistan), Reliance origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct tradable level heard at $970-980/mt CFR FE Asia

PP IPP Film: IPP Film vs PP Raffia spread at about $20/mt CFR S Asia

PP BOPP: BOPP vs PP Raffia spread at about $15/mt CFR S Asia

PP Block Copol: Block Copol vs Raffia/Injection spread about $50/mt, CFR S Asia

PP IPP Film: IPP Film vs PP Raffia spread at about $20/mt CFR SE Asia

PP BOPP: BOPP vs PP Raffia spread at about $15/mt CFR SE Asia

PP Block Copol: Block Copol vs Raffia/Injection spread about $50/mt, CFR SE Asia

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct tradable level heard at $1020/mt CFR SE Asia

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct bid heard at $1020/mt CFR SE Asia

PP IPP Film: IPP Film vs PP Raffia spread at about $20-30/mt CFR SE Asia

PP Raffia: Domestic East China price heard at Yuan 7,600-7,700/mt, ex works

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct offers heard at $1,000/mt CFR FE Asia

PP Raffia: Domestic East China price heard at Yuan 7,650/mt, ex works

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct offers heard at $1,000/mt CFR FE Asia, APC origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct deal concluded at $980/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin (sold by trader), 100 -300 mt

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct offer heard at $1050/mt CFR SE Asia, Reliance origin

PP Raffia/Injection: Oct offer heard at $1040/mt CFR SE Asia, Sumitomo origin

Polymerupdate:

N. A.

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5

PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

Asian Propylene: Falls to nine-month low on thin demand, supply glut

- CFR China price lowest since December 2014

- End-users secure requirements for October

Asian propylene sank to its lowest level in about nine months Friday as buying activity fell with

most end-users having secured their requirements for October. CFR China was assessed at

$645/mt, down $50/mt from Thursday last week. Prices were not assessed on Friday last week

due to a holiday in Singapore. The last time the CFR China marker was lower was onDecember 24, 2014, when it stood at $625/mt. Towards the end of the week, offers fell to deal

levels as buyers retreated from the spot market. On Thursday, a $650/mt CFR China deal was

superseded by offers at $650/mt CFR China with buying ideas at $640/mt CFR China. In a

bearish market, South Korea's propylene exports in August rose 10% from July to 112,929 mt.

But in Taiwan, customs data showed that the country's propylene exports stood at 29,100 mt

in July, down 14.1% from June. In downstream news, South Korea's S-Oil plans to build a

705,000 mt/year propylene derivatives plant as part of an upgrade project of the Onsan

refinery at Ulsan. The plant will have a production capacity of 405,000 mt/year of

polypropylene and 300,000 mt/year of propylene oxide.

RATIONALE:

Asia propylene was assessed Friday at $645/mt CFR China, down $20/mt from Thursday and

$50/mt lower from Thursday last week. Offers stood at $650/mt CFR China for H2 October

cargoes while buying ideas stood at $640/mt CFR China. FOB Korea was down $25/mt at

$595/mt. Freight between South Korea and China hovered around $50/mt.

sian PP: Prices edge up $5/mt in China, restocking in SEA, S Asia

China's Aug PP-homo imports up 3.35% on month

Caixin flash China PMI at 47.0 for September

he CFR Far East Asia polypropylene marker edged up $5/mt Wednesday after plunging $15/mt last week, while

estocking in Southeast Asia and India kept CFR Southeast Asia and CFR South Asia markers unchanged on week.

n China, domestic prices were assessed up Yuan 50/mt on the week at Yuan 7,650/mt on Wednesday -- about

962/mt on an import parity basis. End-users booked PP-raffia cargoes at $980/mt CFR China level throughout the

eek, ahead of the week-long October holidays in China. "August and September were supposed to be peak

emand months for PP in China, but we are not seeing the volumes we expected," one China-based trader said.

hinese customs data showed that PP Homo imports rose 3.35% on month in August to 278,704 mt, although this

epresented at 5.28% drop on year. PP block copolymer imports rose 1.63% on month and 3.13% on the year to

105,528 mt in August. In Southeast Asia, restocking continued to generate firm trades. But PetroVietnam, which

raditionally exports to ASEAN countries and China, was forced to find domestic buyers amid ample supply in both

arkets, sources said. An end-user in Malaysia said that restocking and stable crude were keeping PP buying

entiment strong this week, but worried that the slowdown in China could adversely impact Southeast Asia

entiment next month. On Wednesday, the Caixin Flash China Purchasing Manager's Index came in at 47 for

eptember, down from 47.3 in August, signaling continued weakness in the Chinese manufacturing sector. India

nd South Asia PP demand continued to be firm this week as end-users restocked amid stable crude.

ATIONALE:

olypropylene raffia edged up $5/mt on the week to $980/mt CFR Far East Asia on Wednesday. Deals were heard

oncluded at the $980/mt by China-based traders. The CFR Southeast Asia PP raffia marker was assessed at

1,030/mt, unchanged on the week, taking into consideration deals concluded at $1,030/mt by end-users. The

FR South Asia PP raffia marker was assessed at $1,050/mt, unchanged on the week reflecting deals heard

oncluded at that level.

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Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25 lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 6

POLYMERUPDATE - PP MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

PO plant restarted by Dongying Huatai

Dongying Huatai Chemical has restarted its propylene oxide (PO) plant following a maintenance turnaround. The plant resumed production in mid-September 2015 and is currently operating at 85% of production

capacity rates. The plant was taken off-stream in early-September 2015. Located in Dongying, Shandong province of China, the PO plant has a production capacity of 80,000 mt/year.

S-Oil to build propylene derivatives plant

S-Oil is in plans to build a propylene derivatives plant. The company is in plans to setup a new propylene derivatives plant. The derivatives plant includes a polypropylene (PP) plant with a production capacity of

405,000 mt/year and propylene oxide (PO) plant with a production capacity of 300,000 mt/year. The company will also build a residue hydrodesulfurization unit with a processing capacity of 76,000 bpd. The

company is likely to invest approx USD 410 million over the next three years. Located at Ulsan, South Korea, the propylene derivatives plant will have a total production capacity of 705,000 mt/year.

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PLATTS Price Analysis of PP Chain Processing Margins

Naphtha to Propylene Propylene to Polypropylene

Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing propylene

from naphtha using a conversion cost of $250/mt

Typical $/mt margin for producing PP homo injection in Far East Asia

from propylene using a conversion cost of $150/mt

Polyproplene : Naphtha ratio CFR China Vs SEA Propylene

CFR FE Asia PP homo injection prices as a ratio of naphtha CFR China propylene premium or discount to CFR South East Asian propylene prices

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Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :

Countries Currency Rates Countries Currency Rates

Indian Rupees (INR) 65.95 Japan Yen (JPY) 120.08

Pakistan Rupees (PKR) 104.31 Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR) 14,633.29

China Yuan Renminb (CNY) 6.37 Malaysia Ringgits (MYR) 4.30

Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 77.66 Singapore Dollars (SGD) 1.41

Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR) 140.73 South Korea Won (KRW) 1185.84

Thailand Baht (THB) 36.07 Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR) 3.75

Taiwan New Dollars (TWD) 32.90 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) 3.67

CRISIL Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

Overview: The commodity blessing

The global downturn, particularly the sharp slowdown in the resource-intensive Chinese economy, has depressed the prices of

many commodities. The decline is broad-based, including metals, oil and agricultural commodities. Although there are pockets of

stress within India due to low commodity prices, the overall economy stands to gain as the country is a net importer of amajority of these commodities. The recent depreciation of currency has pared some gains from the drop in commodity prices.

Yet, decline in commodity prices has been much sharper than currency depreciation. Net -net, imports are cheaper. The fall in

international commodity prices, especially of crude oil, has helped improve India's key macroeconomic parameters, such as fiscal

deficit, current account deficit and inflation. Low crude prices have also provided an opportunity to reform the fuel subsidy

regime. Industries dependent on oil, such as auto, also get a boost from lower fuel prices. Lower international prices of edible oil

have proved a blessing this year. However, weak monsoons are expected to take a toll on acreage, yields and output of oilseeds.

A drop in international non-coking coal prices will reduce input costs for sectors such as power. India is a significant exporter of

agricultural products and is trade surplus in the segment. The exports include 11.6% of total rice production, 4% of total wheat

production and also cotton. The slump in global prices hurts the export income of farmers already reeling under consecutive

monsoon failure. Metal companies also stand to lose, particularly given a drop in aluminum and steel prices.

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IIP splutters in July as factory wheels jam

Industrial production growth moderated to 4.2% in July from 4.4% in June. On a month-on-month basis also growth remained weak. The picture

for manufacturing was also less positive with growth slowing to 4.7% in July. That said, the numbers did throw up a bright spot - for one, the

capital goods sub-index rose 10.6%. It was disappointing to see the consumer-oriented sectors lose momentum seen in July (1.3%), signalling

that consumption demand remains fragile. Unseasonal rains early this year and the weak progress of monsoon so far are telling on demand. As a

result, low capacity utilisation is a key challenge faced by most industrial sectors.

Inflation resists a drop in August

Consumer price inflation (CPI) stood at 3.7% in August, unchanged from the previous month. July inflation was revised down from 3.8% released

earlier. In August, core inflation continued to ease, but a further fall in overall inflation was contained by a pick-up in the food and fuel related

inflation. Food inflation, at 2.2%, was 10 basis points (bps) higher than in July, whereas fuel inflation (fuel and light), at 5.7%, was up 30 bps.

Wholesale price index data continued to be in the negative zone, but the extent of decline slowed. Meanwhile, with rising rainfall deficiency, food

inflation in some commodities is firming up, and if not contained, can lower some gains from falling fuel prices. Core inflation (CPI excluding food

price index, fuel and light, and petrol and diesel) fell to 5.2% in August, down 10 bps over July - its second consecutive monthly decline. Much of this

fall came from lower inflation in health, personal care effects and education. The continued decline in core reflects sluggish demand conditions in the

economy.

FII outflows drag rupee under

The rupee lost ground against most major currencies in August as foreign institutional investors made a beeline out of the emerging markets

following a devaluation of the yuan. China devalued the yuan by 4%, announcing a change to its peg against the US dollar. The move, coming at atime when the Chinese economy is in the throes of a slowdown, pulled down commodity prices and created jitters in currency and stock markets

worldwide. The rupee hit a low of 66.7/$ on August 25 before recovering a tad (it has depreciated 3% since the announcement of the Chinese

devaluation). It averaged 65.1/$ for the month, weaker than 63.6/$ in July. Against the euro and the pound, it dropped on average 3 .5% and 2.4%,

respectively.

About CRISIL Research

CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible

provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary

sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual

fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life i nsurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest

independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy

and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists,

sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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POLYMERUPDATE PLATTS

Editorial Contact:

Director, Editorial: Jwalant Oza

Senior Editors:Harsh Nadkarni, Feroz Khan

Sales Contact:

Marketing Managers:Reshma Jadhav, Tausif Siddiqi, Nilesh Shah

Global Editorial Director, Petrochemicals:Simon Thorne

Managing Editor:Prema Viswanathan

Singapore Editors: Gustav Holmvik, Ng Bao Ying, Michelle Kim, Heng Hui, Genevieve Soong,

Maithreyi Ramdas, Pamela Sumayao, Jennifer Lee

Tokyo Editors:Fumiko Dobashi, Anton Ferkov

About Polymerupdate: Polymerupdate is a destination for global players seeking plastics and petrochemical intelligence. We are a world renowned provider of real time news and price alerts spanning a whole spectrum of

products including Crude oil, Naphtha, Aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins and Petrochemical Intermediates.

Credible, neutral and regular reporting has attracted over a thousand subscribers who include most of the regions leading resin producers, processors, distributors, traders, consultant firms, investment bankers, credit rating

agencies, as well as front runners in the international information services, news and media companies.

To further facilitate its readers, Polymerupdate recently launched the World's 1st Android & Blackberry Applications for daily polymer news & prices. Polymerupdate through it's daily alerts helps companies worldwide increase

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Platts PP 23 Sept 2015