Platts Pp 27 May 2015

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Index Price Plastics PP May 2015

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  • www.polymerupdate.com www.platts.com

    This Weeks Highlights:

    Asian Propylene: Down $25-34/mt on week on lower buy-sell indications

    Asian PP: Falls $5-$12/mt amid weakening sentiment

    INDEX:

    Platts International Prices 1

    Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1

    Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT) 2

    Polymerupdate CIF India Prices 2

    Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 2

    Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 3

    Heard in PP Market 4

    Currency Rates 4

    Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 5

    Polymerupdate - PP Market Supply Scenario 6

    Platts Price Analysis Of PP Chain Processing Margins 7

    Crisil Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 8

    Point of Contact 10

    Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 10

    Platts - About us & Copyright 10

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 1

    PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

    Product May 20 (WK 20)

    May 27 (WK 21)

    Price Change on Week

    India Crude basket: (USD/b) 62.72 62.27 -0.45 Naphtha: (MOP West India) 545.43 537.05 -8.38 Propylene :

    FOB Korea 964-966 934-936 - 30 CFR China 1019-1021 994-996 - 25 CFR South East Asia 969-971 939-941 - 30 Poly propylene :

    PP Injection South Asia 1379-1381 1367-1369 - 12 PP Injection Far East Asia 1259-1261 1254-1256 - 05 PP Injection South East Asia 1354-1356 1344-1346 - 10 PP Raffia South Asia 1379-1381 1367-1369 - 12 PP Raffia Far East Asia 1269-1271 1264-1266 - 05 PP Raffia South East Asia 1354-1356 1344-1346 - 10 PP IPP Film South Asia 1409-1411 1397-1399 - 12 PP IPP Film Far East Asia 1289-1291 1284-1286 - 05 PP IPP Film South East Asia 1369-1371 1359-1361 - 10 PP Copolymer South Asia 1424-1426 1412-1414 - 12 PP Copolymer Far East Asia 1319-1321 1314-1316 - 05 PP Copolymer South East Asia 1399-1401 1394-1396 - 05 PP BOPP South Asia 1394-1396 1382-1384 - 12 PP BOPP Far East Asia 1284-1286 1279-1281 - 05 PP BOPP South East Asia 1364-1366 1354-1356 - 10 China Domestic (YUAN/MT EX-WORK) :PP Raffia 8930-8970 9080-9120 + 150

    POLYMERUPDATE INDIAN DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE RIL (Ex-Hazira)

    INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

    Product May 20 (WK 20) May 27 (WK 21) Price Change on Week

    INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG

    PP Grade

    Raffia 101.73 1444 101.73 1444 0

    Injection 100.77 1430 100.77 1430 0 TQ Film Homopolymer

    103.97 1476

    103.97 1476 0

    Block Copolymer 103.86 1475 103.86 1475 0

    Random Copolymer 106.39 1512 106.39 1512 0

    BOPP Homopolymer 105.60 1500 105.60 1500 0

    *Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT) - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors. - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

    PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES

    Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, Laem Chabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication. India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%) MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 2

    PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

    From: Middle East Middle East To: 25 100 MT > 100 MT East China 20 25 10 15 South China 15 25 10 15 India 45 50 30 40 Southeast Asia 30 35 25 30 NW Europe 55 65 50 60 Turkey 50 70 40 60 US Gulf 130 140 120 130 Latin America 165 175 160 165

    NOTES: Polymers refer to Polyethylene, Polypropylene, Polystyrene, ABS, and PVC. 1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait), Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between these ports. 2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports. 3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports. 4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports. 5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports. 6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be normalized to Antwerp. 7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports. 8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf. 9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into main ports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

    POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)

    PP Grade

    CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (Nhava Sheva Port)

    South Korea Singapore Thailand Saudi Arabia

    WK 20 WK 21 Price Changeon Week

    WK 20 WK 21 Price Changeon Week

    WK 20 WK 21 Price Change on Week

    WK 20 WK 21 Price Change on Week May 20 May 27 May 20 May 27 May 20 May 27 May 20 May 27

    Raffia 1420 1410 - 10 1410 1390 - 20 1430 1400 - 30 1390 1360 - 30 Injection 1420 1410 - 10 1410 1390 - 20 1430 1400 - 30 1390 1360 - 30 TQ Film Homopolymer 1430 1420 - 20 1420 1400 - 20 1440 1420 - 20 1400 1380 - 20 Block Copolymer 1440 1430 - 20 1430 1420 - 10 1420 1410 - 10 -- -- -- -- Random Copolymer 1460 1450 - 10 1450 1440 - 10 1450 1430 - 20 -- -- -- -- BOPP Homopolymer 1410 1400 - 10 1400 1375 - 25 1420 1400 - 20 -- -- -- --

    - All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (Nhava Sheva) - For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days. - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors. - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

    POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels. Product Mumbai Delhi Kolkatta Banglore Indore Chennai Ahmedabad Rajasthan Kanpur Hyderabad Punjab Kerala

    PP Raffia 113 113.5 112 - 113 117 - 117.5 114 - 115 121 - 122 113.5 - 114.5 121 - 122 - - 116 - 117 120 - 121 -

    PP Film 117 - 118 115 - 116 121 -121.5 - 128 - 129 120 - 121 119 - 120 118 - 119 123.5 - 124 119 - 120 122 - 123 117.5 - 118

    PP Injection 112.5 113 112 - 113 117 - 117.5 108 - 109 120 - 121 115 - 116 118 - 119 114 - 114.5 123 - 124.5 117.5 - 118.5 119 - 119.5 116.5 - 117

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 3

    POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE) w.e.f 14-May-2015

    BOPP

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) H029SG/H035SG 105600 1500

    HALDIA (Ex-Works) F103 107700 1531

    FIBRE FILAMENTS

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) H350FG/H200FG 104080 1478

    IMPACT COPOLYMER

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex Works BC/NC) MI3535 107930 1534

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) B030MG/B120MA 103860 1475

    HALDIA (Ex-Works) M304 108000 1535

    INJECTION MOULDING (MFI - 3)

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) H033MG 101230 1437

    HALDIA (Ex-Works) M103 104600 1486

    INJECTION MOULDING (MFI 8-11)

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex Works BC/NC) AM120N 99230 1407

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) H110MA 100770 1430

    HALDIA (Ex-Works) M110 102000 1448

    RANDOM COPOLYMER

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) R019MZ 106390 1512

    RAFFIA

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex Works BC/NC) SS35N 101040 1434

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) H030SG 101730 1444

    HALDIA (Ex-Works) R103 109100 1551

    TQ FILM

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL (Ex-Hazira) H100EY 103970 1476

    HALDIA (Ex-Works) F110 105800 1503

    *Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes); equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT) - Ex Works: BC/NC = Ex Works Baroda Complex / Nagothane Complex | Ex Works: HC = Halidia Complex | Ex Works: M/B/T = Mumbai / Bhiwandi / Thane - Product Key: BOPP = Biaxially-Oriented Polypropylene, MFI = Melt Flow Index, - USD Price calculation: INR/MT Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 82330 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 4

    Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :

    Countries Currency Rates Countries Currency Rates

    Indian Rupees (INR) 63.93 Japan Yen (JPY) 123.07

    Pakistan Rupees (PKR) 101.95 Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR) 13,214.99

    China Yuan Renminb (CNY) 6.20 Malaysia Ringgits (MYR) 3.64

    Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 77.73 Singapore Dollars (SGD) 1.34

    Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR) 133.80 South Korea Won (KRW) 1107.44

    Thailand Baht (THB) 33.71 Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR) 3.75

    Taiwan New Dollars (TWD) 30.67 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) 3.67

    Heard in PP MARKET

    Platts: PP Raffia/Injection: 2H June buy idea at $1330-1340/mt CFR SEA

    PP IPP Film: IPP Film vs Raffia spread is about $20/mt CFR SEA

    PP BOPP: 2H June offer heard at $1360-1370/mt CFR SEA, India origin

    PP Raffia/Injection: 2H June offer heard at $1350/mt CFR SEA (Vietnam), India origin

    PP Block Copol: Block Copol vs Raffia spread is about $50-60/mt CFR SEA

    PP Raffia: 2H June sell idea at $1290/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Raffia: 2H June buy idea at $1270/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Raffia: 2H June offer at $1370-$1390/mt CFR SEA, ME origin

    PP Raffia: 2H June buy idea at $1330/mt CFR SEA

    PP Injection: 2H June offer at $1370-$1390/mt CFR SEA, South Africa origin

    PP Injection: 2H June buy idea at $1330/mt CFR SEA

    PP Raffia: 2H June offer $1290-1300/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Raffia: 2H June tradable price heard at $1270-$1280/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Injection: 2H June offer $1290-1300/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Injection: 2H June tradable price heard at $1260-$1270/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Raffia: 2H June offer $1290-1300/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Injection: 2H June offer $1270/mt CFR FE Asia, India origin

    PP Raffia [NON MOC]: 2H June offer at $1275/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin

    PP Raffia [NON MOC]: 2H June offer heard at $1370-$1380/mt CFR S Asia

    PP Injection [NON MOC]: 2H June offer heard at $1370-$1380/mt CFR S Asia

    PP IPP Film [NON MOC]: IPP Film vs Raffia spread about $15-20/mt CFR S Asia

    PP BOPP [NON MOC]: BOPP vs Raffia spread about $10/mt CFR S Asia

    PP IPP Film [NON MOC]: IPP Film vs Raffia spread about $20-30/mt CFR S Asia

    PP BOPP [NON MOC]: BOPP vs Raffia spread about $10/mt CFR S Asia

    PP Block Copol [NON MOC]: Block Copol vs Raffia spread about $50/mt CFR S Asia

    PP Raffia: 2H June offer at $1275/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin

    PP Raffia: 2H June offer heard at $1280/mt CFR FE Asia, Braschem origin

    PP Injection: Raffia vs Injection spread about $10/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP IPP Film: 2H June offer at $1290/mt CFR FE Asia, Reliance origin

    PP BOPP: BOPP vs Raffia spread about $10/mt CFR FE Asia

    PP Raffia [NON MOC]: Domestic China price at Yuan 8,900-9,000/mt

    Polymerupdate: N.A.

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 5

    PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS Asian Propylene: Down $25-34/mt on week on lower buy-sell indications - Sentiment bearish on weak downstream demand - Wide buy-sell gap seen for CFR China cargoes Asian propylene dropped $25-34/mt week on week as indications from both end-users and suppliers were lower this week on the back of new supplies in the market and volatile upstream costs. CFR China price fell $25/mt to $995/mt. The buy-sell gap was still wide, with buying indications heard at $960/mt while selling ideas were heard at $1,000-1,010/mt. A deal was heard concluded at $990/mt CFR China, however, this could not be confirmed. Meanwhile, more supply in China put downward pressure on prices this week. In China, Zhangjiagang Yangzi River Petrochemical, or Yangzijiang, produced on-specification propylene Wednesday at its new propane dehydrogenation plant in Zhejiang province, sources said Friday. The PDH unit can produce 600,000 mt/year propylene. Also, Sanyuan Petrochemical restarted production last week at its 450,000 mt/year Shaoxing PDH plant in China's Zhejiang province, a company source confirmed. Downstream prices including polypropylene, 2-EH, and acrylonitrile have also been on a downward trend in the past weeks. Upstream, crude volatility also kept buyers on the sidelines. The front-month July ICE Brent crude futures were $66.33/barrel at 4:30 pm Singapore time (0830 GMT) Friday, down $0.26/mt week on week. Last week, selling indications were heard at $1,030-1,050/mt but this week it has dropped to $1,010/mt. Buyers on the other hand were still talking about $1,000/mt levels but this week all buy indications heard were below that between $950-960/mt. Sellers said that buyers were buying small quantities on a need-based basis. Meanwhile, the FOB Korea price was assessed at $940/mt, down $34/mt from a week ago, falling almost the same pace as the FOB Japan price, which saw a $33/mt decline week on week to $935/mt. RATIONALE:

    CFR China propylene fell $25/mt week on week to be assessed at $995/mt below the selling

    indication heard at $1,000/mt and above the buying idea heard at $960/mt. FOB Japan price

    was down $33/mt from the previous week to $935/mt below a selling idea at $940/mt. FOB

    Korea fell in line with the FOB Japan marker, dropping $34/mt to $940/mt but no firm bids

    and offers were heard Friday.

    Asian PP: Falls $5-$12/mt amid weakening sentiment - China domestic import parity $72/mt below CFR - Feedstock propylene falls $25/mt on week

    The Asian polypropylene market continued to weaken this week amid falling feedstock propylene prices and worsening buying sentiment across all grades. The CFR Far East Asia PP raffia marker fell $5/mt week on week to be assessed at $1,265/mt. Feedstock propylene price was assessed at $985/mt CFR China Wednesday, down $25/mt week on week. "[Polypropylene] demand will continue falling at least until mid-June due to weak sentiment and increasing domestic capacities," a trader in Hong Kong said. Another China-based PP importer said CTO-linked PP cargoes were likely to continue supplying China domestic markets, and he expected domestic prices to remain lower than import prices. The China domestic price for PP raffia fell from Yuan 9,550/mt to Yuan 8,950/mt over May 6-20 before rebounding to Yuan 9,100/mt Wednesday, but was still down Yuan 450/mt to date in May. This equate to an import parity price of $1,193/mt, $72/mt below the CFR Far East Asia assessment. All polypropylene grades for South Asia fell $12/mt week on week to $1,368/mt CFR South Asia. A major producer attributed weakening sentiment in South Asia to the slowdown in China PP demand starting to impact India and to Pakistan considering raising custom duties in early June, which was discouraging buyers from taking positions until the issue was clarified. CFR Southeast Asia PP raffia prices fell $10/mt week on week. A trader in Vietnam said the advantages for cargo from India and China coming to Vietnam was the shorter distance compared with deepsea cargo from the Middle East and the lack of duties due to the free trade agreement. However producers and traders noted weakening buyer sentiment in Vietnam as PP raffia from India offered at $1,350/mt met resistance and the buying idea fell to $1,330/mt, down $20/mt from last week. A trader in China who had offered successfully to Vietnam last week said the environment was tougher this week as buyers continued to anticipate more favorable terms in early June

    RATIONALE: Polypropylene raffia was assessed at $1,265/mt CFR Far East Asia Wednesday, down $5/mt week on week. Offers were heard at $1,275-$1,290/mt, the sharpest from Reliance, with no solid bids or deals heard as buyers continued to wait for polypropylene to follow the price drop in propylene on a CFR China basis. The CFR Southeast Asia PP raffia marker was assessed at $1,345/mt, down $10/mt week on week, reflecting the sharpest offer to Vietnam heard at $1,350/mt from India and buy ideas in the range of $1,330-1,340/mt CFR Southeast Asia. The CFR South Asia PP raffia marker fell $12/mt week on week to be assessed at $1,368/mt, reflecting offers heard at $1,370-1,380/mt from the Middle East and buy ideas heard at $1,360/mt CFR South Asia

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 6

    POLYMERUPDATE - PP MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

    OCU restarted by LG Chem LG Chem has restarted an olefins conversion unit (OCU) following an unplanned shutdown. The OCU restarted on May 27. It was shut on May 26 owing to technical issues. Located at Yeosu in South Korea, the OCU has a propylene capacity of 80,000 mt/year. Petrochemical complex restarted by Yansab Yanbu National Petrochemical Company (Yansab) has restarted its petrochemical complex following maintenance turnaround. The complex restarted on May 22, 2015. It was shut on April 17, 2015. However, the ethylene glycol plant at the complex continues to remain off-stream. The reason behind the extended shutdown of the plant could not be ascertained. Located in Yanbu, Saudi Arabia the complex has an ethylene capacity of 1.3 million mt/year and propylene capacity of 400,000 mt/year. Downstream facilities comprise a 770,000 ethylene glycol plant and two PP plants of 400,000 mt/year each. Naphtha cracker planned to be taken off-stream by Mitsui Chem Mitsui Chem is in plans to shut a naphtha

    cracker for maintenance turnaround. The cracker is likely to shut on June 20, 2015. It is expected to remain off-stream for around one month. Located at Chiba in Japan, the cracker has an ethylene capacity of 600,000 mt/year and propylene capacity of 331,000 mt/year. Naphtha cracker taken off-stream by Mitsubishi Mitsubishi Chemical has shut a naphtha cracker for maintenance turnaround. The plant was shut on May 21, 2015. It is expected to remain off-stream till June 26. Located in Mizushima, Japan, the cracker has an ethylene capacity of 495,000 mt/year and propylene capacity of 320,000 mt/year.

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 7

    PLATTS Price Analysis of PP Chain Processing Margins

    Naphtha to Propylene Propylene to Polypropylene

    Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing propylene from naphtha using a conversion cost of $250/mt

    Typical $/mt margin for producing PP homo injection in Far East Asia from propylene using a conversion cost of $150/mt

    Polyproplene : Naphtha ratio

    CFR China Vs SEA Propylene

    CFR FE Asia PP homo injection prices as a ratio of naphtha CFR China propylene premium or discount to CFR South East Asian propylene prices

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 8

    CRISIL Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

    Overview: Preparing for a marathon, not sprint The Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance has some reason to cheer as it completes a year in office this month. India's macros look better than they did a year ago. Growth is inching up, inflation has come down and current account deficit is in the safe zone. Having said that, reality has begun to bite into hopes that there would be drastic reforms and the economy would turn around quickly. The recent rise in crude oil prices, possibility of weak monsoons amid rising rural distress, together with the parliamentary logjam on two critical bills - land acquisition and Goods andServices Tax (GST) - are also huge dampeners.Over the last one year government has taken steps to clear infrastructure bottlenecks, speed up decision-making, fast track project clearances/reduce red-tape and sort out mining issues. But these steps, and an additional kick from slump in oil prices, have just been enough to engineer a moderate turnaround in the economy.It is now becoming clear that government has limited ability to push growth up in the short run. One, it cannot use fiscal spending and deep rate cuts to pump up demand. The legacy of high inflation and need to bring down deficits prevents it from doing so. Two, the lack of demand, high leverage in corporate balance sheets and high quantum of bad assets in the banking sector act as speed breaker to private investment and hence growth.We retain our growth forecasts of 7.4% for fiscal 2015 and 7.9% for fiscal 2016. The nominal uptick would be triggered by a lift in private consumption and a mild pick-up in investments in public sector-led infrastructure projects. So the lift in private corporate investments will have to wait until 2016-17. IIP trend indicate industry growth remains fragile Industrial production grew 2.8% in 2014-15 in comparison with -0.1% in 2013-14. But, the sluggish pace of domesticdemand and weak export demand weighed on industrial production. Slow growth in investment and soft commodityprices are expected to have taken a toll on revenue growth in many industrial sectors such as steel, pharmaceuticals,and commodity chemical producers in Q4. On the bright side, the 3-month moving average of the IIP series, which ismuch less volatile, is showing improving growth. In addition, the trend in both, consumer-oriented and investment-orientedsectors is beginning to climb up.Growth in overall IIP in 2014-15 was mostly supported by electricity production (up 8.4%). Manufacturing indexgrowth also revived to 2.3%, but came on a weak base (-0.8% in 2013-14) signalling that production remainsfragile. According to use-based classification, basic goods (6.9%) index was favourable, while consumer goodssaw a decline of -3.4% in 2014-15 (versus -2.8% in 2013-14), indicating that consumption demand was fragile.Turning to the core sector (accounting for 40% of IIP), the growth in the index remained almost unchangedcompared to the last fiscal at 3.8% y-o-y (versus 3.9% in 2013-14).

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 9

    Inflation declines in April Inflation fell to 4.9% in April from 5.3% last month. Amidst worries that unseasonal rains are ruining the game for food prices, food inflation surprised when it fell to 5.1% from 6.1%. This suggests that the impact of weather-related disturbances is yet to be felt on crop production. But the slide is also because of a high base from last year - inflation in April 2014 had reached 8.5% after which it steadily came down. During April 2015, core inflation remained sticky at 4.6% while fuel inflation rose by 44 bps, possibly due to a weaker rupee and higher oil prices.Food inflation fell to 5.1% from 6.1% last month; core inflation was sticky at 4.6% while most other categories saw a slight pick-up in inflation. A favourable base effect had a role to play in the inflation dip.

    Rupee starts 2015-16 on weak note The rupee depreciated to 63.6/$ by April-end compared to 62.6/$ in the previous month. On a monthly average basis, therupee stood at 62.8/$ versus 62.0/$ in March. This trend was driven by lower foreign institutional investor inflowsinto Indian markets, rising strength of the US dollar against most global currencies, month-end demand fromimporters, and weak local equity market performance due to weak corporate earnings.

    About CRISIL Research CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists, sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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  • Week 21 May 27, 2015

    ContactDetails:344,AtoZIndl.Estate,G.K.Marg,LowerParel(w),Mumbai400013,INDIA|Email:[email protected]|Tel:+912261772000(25lines)|Fax:+912261772025 10

    POLYMERUPDATE PLATTS

    Editorial Contact: Director, Editorial: Jwalant Oza Senior Editors: Harsh Nadkarni, Feroz Khan

    Sales Contact: Marketing Managers: Reshma Jadhav, Tausif Siddiqi, Nilesh Shah

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