Platts PVC 23 Sept 2015

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  • This Weeks Highlights:

    Asian EDC/VCM: Flat to $10/mt lower

    Asian PVC: Prices mixed as market stirs on emergence of Oct offers

    INDEX:

    Platts International Prices 1

    Polymerupdate Indian Domestic Producer Price 1

    Platts Polymer Shipping Costs (USD/MT) 1

    Polymerupdate CIF India Prices 2

    Polymerupdate Indian Open Market Price Table 2

    Polymerupdate Indian Producer Posting Price Comparison 2

    Heard in PVC Market 3

    Platts International Market Commentary & Analysis 3

    Polymerupdate - PVC Market Supply Scenario 4

    Platts Price Analysis Of PVC Chain Processing Margins 5

    Currency Rates 6

    Crisil Research Macroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis 6

    Point of Contact 8

    Polymerupdate - About us & Copyright 8

    Platts - About us & Copyright 8

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 1

    PLATTS INTERNATIONAL PRICES (USD/MT)

    Product Sept 16

    (WK 37)

    Sept 23

    (WK 38)

    Price Change

    on Week

    India Crude basket: (USD/b) 44.83 46.01 +1.18

    Naphtha: (MOP West India) 419.80 428.99 +9.19

    EDC :

    CFR Far East Asia 229-231 219-221 - 10

    CFR South East Asia 289-291 289-291 0

    VCM :

    CFR Far East Asia 688-690 688-690 0

    CFR South East Asia 704-706 704-706 0

    PVC :

    PVC Suspension CFR China 799-801 794-796 - 05

    PVC Suspension CFR SEA 799-801 789-791 - 10

    PVC Suspension CFR India 839-841 849-851 + 10

    Specifications: Cargoes of 100-500mt delivered 15-30 days forward from date of publication with up to 30 days credit, basis

    CFR Far East Asia: China main ports (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Ningbo, Shantou, Hong Kong); CFR South East Asia: Indonesia (Jakarta,

    Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok, LaemChabang, Map Ta Phut), Vietnam (Ho

    Chi Minh). Platts prices reflect spot market values on the day of publication.

    India Crude Import Basket Calculation: ( (Dubai + Oman) / 2 * 65.2% ) + (Dated Brent * 34.8%)

    MOP West India : Mean of Platts FOB West India naphtha export price

    China Domestic (YUAN/MT EX-WORK) :

    Ethylene Based 5690-5710 5690-5710 0

    Carbide Based 5340-5360 5340-5360 0

    POLYMERUPDATE

    INDIA DOMESTIC PRODUCER PRICE - RIL (Ex Hazira)

    Product Sept 16 (WK 37) Sept 23 (WK 38) Price Change on Week

    INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG USD/MT INR/KG

    PVC Grade

    Suspension 63.50 860 64.50 875 +01

    *Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/kg basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is

    calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load (10 to 16 MT)

    - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin

    producers, processors, traders and distributors.

    - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

    PLATTS Polymer shipping costs (USD/MT)

    From: Middle East Middle East

    To: 25 100 MT > 100 MT East China 20 25 10 15

    South China 15 25 10 15

    India 45 50 30 40

    Southeast Asia 30 35 25 30

    NW Europe 55 65 50 60

    Turkey 50 70 40 60

    US Gulf 130 140 120 130

    Latin America 165 175 160 165

    NOTES: Polymers refer to polyethylene, polypropylene, polystyrene, ABS, and PVC. 1) Middle East loadings refer to products coming from Jebel Ali (Dubai), Khalifa (Abu Dhabi), Jubail (Saudi Arabia), Shuaiba (Kuwait),

    Rabigh (Saudi Arabia), Mesaieed (Qatar), Assaluyeh and Bandar Imam Khomeini (Iran) ports. The assessments are normalized between these ports.

    2) East China deliveries refer to products coming into Zhangjiagang, Shanghai, Jiangyin, Nantong, Ningbo, Nanjing, Zhenjiang ports. 3) South China deliveries refer to products coming into Shenzhen, Shantou, Hong Kong, Xiamen, Zhuhai ports. 4) India deliveries refer to products coming into Kolkata, Mumbai and Chennai ports.

    5) South East Asia deliveries refer to products coming into Indonesia (Jakarta, Surabaya), Singapore, Philippines (Manila Bay), Malaysia (Port Kelang), Thailand (Bangkok), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh) ports. 6) Northwest Europe deliveries refer to products coming into Antwerp port. Deliveries into Rotterdam and Amsterdam ports will be

    normalized to Antwerp. 7) Turkey deliveries refer to products coming into Istanbul and Mersin ports. 8) US Gulf deliveries refer to products coming into Houston port. No deliveries from the Persian Gulf.

    9) Latin America deliveries refer to products coming into mainports in Brazil, Chile, Uruguay.

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 2

    POLYMERUPDATE (CIF INDIA PRICES)

    CIF INDIA BY ORIGIN (NhavaSheva Port)

    South Korea Thailand Taiwan

    WK 37 WK 38 Price Change on Week

    WK 37 WK 38 Price Change on Week

    WK 37 WK 38 Price Change on Week

    Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 23 Sep 16 Sep 23

    Suspension 820 820 0 820 820 0 830 850 +20 Emulsion 960 960 0 -- -- -- -- 970 970 0

    - All prices are in USD/MT CIF India (NhavaSheva)

    - For South Korea, Singapore, Thailand and Saudi Arabia : Cargo size of 50-100mt delivered within 30 days.

    - Price assessments are based on information gathered from a cross section of the industry that includes resin producers, processors, traders and distributors.

    - Standard repeatable orders (based on confirmed market deals) form the basis of the prices.

    POLYMERUPDATE - Indian Open Market Price Table Note: All prices are in INR/kg levels.

    Product Mumbai Delhi Kolkata Bangalore Indore Chennai Ahmedabad Hyderabad

    Ethylene Based PVC 73 - 73.5 78 - 78.5 77 - 77.5 74 - 74.5 76.5 - 77 73 - 74

    (Incl. of VAT) 76 - 77 76 - 76.5

    POLYMERUPDATE - INDIAN PRODUCER POSTING PRICE COMPARISON (GRADE WISE)

    PVC SUSPENSION K-67w.e.f 18 Sept-2015

    Producer Grade No. *INR/MT USD/MT

    RIL 67GER01 (Ex-Gandhar) 64500 875

    RIL 67.01 (Ex-Hazira) 64500 875

    RIL 57GER01 (Ex-Gandhar) 66500 903

    RIL 57.11 (Ex-Hazira) 66500 903

    *Domestic Indian producer prices are quoted in INR/MT basic (Nett of all taxes) ; equivalent USD/MT price is calculated at current US/INR rate. *Lot Size: 1 Truck Load(10 to 16 MT)

    - USD Price calculation: INR/MT Aprox. Clearing and Forwarding Charges / Basic Duty / Exchange Rate = USD/MT (For example: 82330 2500 / 1.075 / 54.24 = 1396)

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 3

    Currency rates equivalent to 1 US Dollar :

    Countries Currency Rates Countries Currency Rates

    Indian Rupees (INR) 65.95 Japan Yen (JPY) 120.08

    Pakistan Rupees (PKR) 104.31 Indonesia Rupiahs (IDR) 14,633.29

    China Yuan Renminb (CNY) 6.37 Malaysia Ringgits (MYR) 4.30

    Bangladesh Taka (BDT) 77.66 Singapore Dollars (SGD) 1.41

    Sri Lanka Rupees (LKR) 140.73 South Korea Won (KRW) 1185.84

    Thailand Baht (THB) 36.07 Saudi Arabia Riyals (SAR) 3.75

    Taiwan New Dollars (TWD) 32.90 United Arab Emirates Dirhams (AED) 3.67

    Heard in PVC MARKET

    Platts:

    Asian PVC: Oct heard traded at $850-855/mt CFR India, Korean origin

    Asian PVC: Oct heard traded at $810-820/mt CFR China, Korean origin

    Asian PVC: Oct heard traded at $790/mt CFR Southeast Asia, Korean origin

    Asian PVC: Oct buying ideas heard at $780/mt CFR Southeast Asia

    Polymerupdate:

    22-9-2015: Taiwan producer offers PVC Suspension at $850/mt in India (CIF Nhava Sheva port)

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 4

    PLATTS INTERNATIONAL MARKET COMMENTARY & ANALYSIS

    Asian EDC/VCM: Flat to $10/mt lower

    - EDC under pressure in FEA on higher deepsea supply

    - VCM flat ahead of Oct PVC discussions

    EDC: CFR Far East Asia ethylene dichloride fell $10/mt week on week Thursday. The Asian EDC market

    remained under pressure this week amid persisting deepsea supplies from the US. A market source said

    that US producers would continue to export EDC for the rest of this year to clear their stocks by the end

    of December before account closing. Trading activity was rather limited as market participants held back

    ahead of the US Federal Reserve Bank's decision on interest rates. Also, upstream crude oil futures were

    volatile. November ICE Brent futures rose $0.82/barrel week on week to be assessed at $49.50/b at 4:30

    pm Singapore time (0830 GMT) Thursday.

    VCM: Asian vinyl chloride monomer was assessed unchanged Thursday from the previous week. Most

    market participants decided to take a wait-and-see stance this week as there were no fresh offers for

    downstream PVC for October. On Wednesday, CFR China PVC was assessed at $800/mt, down $10/mt

    from a week earlier. PVC producers are likely to increase their offers for October from a month earlier

    amid firmer demand, especially in India. Some market sources said, however, that it might be difficult,

    citing weak demand in China as well as ample supply in the region. Spot VCM was also reported to be

    tight amid plant turnarounds, which limited trading activity in the Asian market.

    RATIONALE:

    EDC: The CFR Far East Asia EDC price fell $10/mt week on week to be assessed at $220/mt Thursday.

    Some deals were reported to have been done at $210-220/mt CFR FEA. A buying idea was reported at

    $200/mt CFR FEA. CFR Southeast Asia EDC was assessed unchanged at $290/mt during the same period,

    with no bids and offers heard.

    VCM: CFR Far East Asia VCM was assessed at $689/mt Thursday, unchanged from a week earlier. An

    offer was heard at $700/mt CFR FEA, while no bids were reported. Meanwhile, CFR Southeast Asia VCM

    was also assessed unchanged at $705/mt. Deals were heard done in a range of $690-710/mt CFR SEA

    this week.

    Asian PVC: Prices mixed as market stirs on emergence of Oct offers

    - Formosa raises Oct offers to Indian markets

    - Ethylene feedstock costs spike $45/mt on week

    Asian spot prices for polyvinyl chloride were mixed Wednesday as activity picked up after Taiwan's

    Formosa released its offers for October-loading parcels on Tuesday. Its offers stood at $860/mt CFR

    India, up $20/mt from September, $800/mt CFR China, unchanged on month, and $770/mt FOB

    Taiwan, also flat from September. The flat to firmer offers for October were attributed to low PVC

    stocks, a source close to the company said. Also, ethylene feedstock costs were higher at $880/mt CFR

    Northeast Asia Wednesday, a gain of $45/mt from $835/mt a week ago. Formosa expects to export

    less than 60,000 mt of PVC in October, down from about 65,000 mt in September, which is its typical

    monthly export volume. Following the offers from Formosa, other PVC producers followed suit. South

    Korean PVC was heard offered at over $845-$855/mt CFR India, depending on volume. One South

    Korean PVC producer plans to shut its plant about mid-October for about 10 days of planned

    maintenance. A China-based trader said Formosa was trying to place more volumes in India through

    its representatives. Although trades were heard concluded, buyers in India were holding back,

    awaiting offers from Japan, which was shut Monday-Wednesday for public holidays. In other news,

    China imported 53,655 mt of PVC in August, up 6% from 49,463 mt in July.

    RATIONALE:

    The CFR India PVC marker was assessed at $850/mt, up $10/mt on week. Offers for October-loading

    parcels emerged at $860/mt CFR India for Taiwan-origin material. PVC from South Korea was heard

    traded at $850-$855/mt CFR India. The CFR China marker was assessed $5/mt lower on week at

    $795/mt. Offers stood at $800/mt CFR China for Taiwan cargoes. Over in Southeast Asia, assessments

    fell $10/mt to $790/mt CFR SEA. A trade was heard concluded at $790/mt CFR SEA.

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 5

    POLYMERUPDATE - PVC MARKET SUPPLY SCENARIO

    PVC plant to be restarted by Suzhou Huasu Plastics

    Suzhou Huasu Plastics is likely to resume production at its polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plant. The plant was shut was taken off-stream in mid-September 2015 for a maintenance turnaround. The company is expected to

    restart operations at its PVC plant by this weekend. Located in Jiangsu province, China, the plant has a production capacity of 130,000 mt/year.

    PVC plant ilkely to be shut by Formosa

    Formosa Plastics Corp (FPC) is in plans to shut its polyvinyl chloride (PVC) plant for a maintenance turnaround. The plant is expected to be taken off-stream in end-October 2015. It is planned to remain shut for

    around 7 days Located at Ningbo in Zhejiang province of China, the plant has a production capacity of 400,000 mt/year.

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 6

    PLATTSPrice Analysis of PVC Chain Processing Margins

    Naphtha to Ethylene

    Naphtha to PVC

    Typical North East Asian $/mt margin for producing ethylene

    from naphtha using a conversion cost of $350/mt Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices over naphtha

    Ethylene to PVC

    PVC : VCM Ratio

    Premium or discount of CFR FE Asia PVC prices compared to ethylene CFR FE Asia PVC prices as a ratio to VCM

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 7

    CRISIL ResearchMacroeconomics & Currency Monthly Analysis

    Overview: The commodity blessing

    The global downturn, particularly the sharp slowdown in the resource-intensive Chinese economy, has depressed the prices of many

    commodities. The decline is broad-based, including metals, oil and agricultural commodities. Although there are pockets of stress

    within India due to low commodity prices, the overall economy stands to gain as the country is a net importer of a majority of these

    commodities. The recent depreciation of currency has pared some gains from the drop in commodity prices. Yet, decline in commodity

    prices has been much sharper than currency depreciation. Net-net, imports are cheaper. The fall in international commodity prices,

    especially of crude oil, has helped improve India's key macroeconomic parameters, such as fiscal deficit, current account deficit and

    inflation. Low crude prices have also provided an opportunity to reform the fuel subsidy regime. Industries dependent on oil, such as

    auto, also get a boost from lower fuel prices. Lower international prices of edible oil have proved a blessing this year. However, weak

    monsoons are expected to take a toll on acreage, yields and output of oilseeds. A drop in international non-coking coal prices will

    reduce input costs for sectors such as power. India is a significant exporter of agricultural products and is trade surplus in the

    segment. The exports include 11.6% of total rice production, 4% of total wheat production and also cotton. The slump in global prices

    hurts the export income of farmers already reeling under consecutive monsoon failure. Metal companies also stand to lose, particularly

    given a drop in aluminum and steel prices.

    IIP splutters in July as factory wheels jam

    Industrial production growth moderated to 4.2% in July from 4.4% in June. On a month-on-month basis also growth remained weak.

    The picture for manufacturing was also less positive with growth slowing to 4.7% in July. That said, the numbers did throw up a

    bright spot - for one, the capital goods sub-index rose 10.6%. It was disappointing to see the consumer-oriented sectors lose

    momentum seen in July (1.3%), signalling that consumption demand remains fragile. Unseasonal rains early this year and the weak

    progress of monsoon so far are telling on demand. As a result, low capacity utilisation is a key challenge faced by most industrial

    sectors.

    MUDASSA

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 8

    Inflation resists a drop in August

    Consumer price inflation (CPI) stood at 3.7% in August, unchanged from the previous month. July inflation was revised down from 3.8% released

    earlier. In August, core inflation continued to ease, but a further fall in overall inflation was contained by a pick-up in the food and fuel related

    inflation. Food inflation, at 2.2%, was 10 basis points (bps) higher than in July, whereas fuel inflation (fuel and light), at 5.7%, was up 30 bps.

    Wholesale price index data continued to be in the negative zone, but the extent of decline slowed. Meanwhile, with rising rainfall deficiency, food

    inflation in some commodities is firming up, and if not contained, can lower some gains from falling fuel prices. Core inflation (CPI excluding food

    price index, fuel and light, and petrol and diesel) fell to 5.2% in August, down 10 bps over July - its second consecutive monthly decline. Much of

    this fall came from lower inflation in health, personal care effects and education. The continued decline in core reflects sluggish demand conditions

    in the economy.

    FII outflows drag rupee under

    The rupee lost ground against most major currencies in August as foreign institutional investors made a beeline out of the emerging markets following a

    devaluation of the yuan. China devalued the yuan by 4%, announcing a change to its peg against the US dollar. The move, coming at a time when the

    Chinese economy is in the throes of a slowdown, pulled down commodity prices and created jitters in currency and stock markets worldwide. The rupee hit a

    low of 66.7/$ on August 25 before recovering a tad (it has depreciated 3% since the announcement of the Chinese devaluation). It averaged 65.1/$ for the

    month, weaker than 63.6/$ in July. Against the euro and the pound, it dropped on average 3.5% and 2.4%, respectively.

    About CRISIL Research

    CRISIL Research is India's largest independent and integrated research house. We provide insights, opinions, and analysis on the Indian economy, industries, capital markets and companies. We are India's most credible

    provider of economy and industry research. Our industry research covers 70 sectors and is known for its rich insights and perspectives. Our analysis is supported by inputs from our network of more than 4,500 primary

    sources, including industry experts, industry associations, and trade channels. We play a key role in India's fixed income markets. We are India's largest provider of valuations of fixed income securities, serving the mutual

    fund, insurance, and banking industries. We are the sole provider of debt and hybrid indices to India's mutual fund and life insurance industries. We pioneered independent equity research in India, and are today India's largest

    independent equity research house. Our defining trait is the ability to convert information and data into expert judgements and forecasts with complete objectivity. We leverage our deep understanding of the macroeconomy

    and our extensive sector coverage to provide unique insights on micro-macro and cross-sectoral linkages. We deliver our research through an innovative web-based research platform. Our talent pool comprises economists,

    sector experts, company analysts, and information management specialists.

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  • Week 38 September 23, 2015

    Contact Details: 344, A to Z Indl. Estate, G. K. Marg, Lower Parel (w), Mumbai 400013, INDIA | Email:[email protected] | Tel: +91-22-61772000 (25lines) | Fax: +91-22-61772025 9

    POLYMERUPDATE PLATTS

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    Senior Editors: Harsh Nadkarni, Feroz Khan

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    About Polymerupdate: Polymerupdate is a destination for global players seeking plastics and petrochemical intelligence. We are a world renowned provider of real time news and price alerts spanning a whole spectrum of

    products including Crude oil, Naphtha, Aromatics, Olefins, Polyolefins and Petrochemical Intermediates.

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    MUDASSA

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